News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. South Korea to charge defector groups over North leaflets
2. Pyongyang Attack on Anti-Kim Leaflets Makes North Koreans Notice Exiled Critics
3. North Korea cuts all lines and links to the South
4. RIP, President Moon's North Korea Peace Initiative?
5. N.Korea Diplomacy Back to Square One
6. Kim Jong Un Raises Pressure on South Korea to Split With Trump
7. North Korea building up nuclear arsenal, researchers say
8. North Korea lashes out, says it will cut ties with South Korea
9. N.Korean Regime Hints at Straits of Pyongyang Elite
10. North Korean defectors unable to send rice amid opposition
11. North Korean leader's sister emerges as policymaker in spat with South Korea
12. Construction in Pyongyang: The Pyongyang General Hospital and More
13. North Korea might be making millions selling sand. Yes, sand.
14. 'Some starving' in North Korea as COVID constrains China trade, say UN experts
15. Kim Jong Un a 'foolish leader' says family of woman kidnapped by North Korea
16. North Korea desperately building new hospital as it fears huge Covid-19 outbreak
17. Senate confirms Gen. Brown, with experience in S. Korea, as new U.S. Air Force chief
1. South Korea to charge defector groups over North leaflets
The Washington Post · by Kim Tong-Hyung
This pains me. What is criminal here is how the escapees from the north are being treated. There are reports that they have received death threats. They (and their efforts) should be protected and not attacked. Please realize none of these actions are going to benefit South Korea or President Moon's "peace strategy." And the actions by the South Korean government will only result in more demands (coercion and blackmail diplomacy) from the regime. South Korea is going down a very bad road here.
We should also realize the regime is telling us how much of a threat information going to the Korean people in the north. is to Kim Jong-un and his survival. We should be doubling down on our information and influence activities not charging these brave escapees with a crime. Again, this pains me.
2. Pyongyang Attack on Anti-Kim Leaflets Makes North Koreans Notice Exiled Critics
rfa.org· by Jieun Kim · June 9, 2020
From Radio Free Asia. They are also noticing because Radio Free Asia and Voice of America are reporting on them in their news reports to North Korea. Unfortunately they also have to report South Korea's actions against those escapees for trying to help their brothers and sisters in the north.
But the actions of mobilizing Koreans in the north to rally against escapees in the South is an indication that information and influence activities are having effects in the north. The regime is threatened. We should be doubling down.
The sad fact is South Korea's appeasement of the regime is surely enhancing his domestic legitimacy. I am sure these rallies will be spun in such a way that peaceable assembly is allowed in North Korea and the people's protests can make a difference and have effects on the government - unfortunately its effects are on the South Korean government. There is no reason to protest against the regime in the north because the people live in the Socialist Workers Paradise. But they can protest the "puppet government” in the South.
3. North Korea cuts all lines and links to the South
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 9, 2020
Impotent. Not a word the South Korean government should want to be associated with. Someone asked me why is the regime doing this now and what is the likelihood of conflict? Should we expect a conflict in the near term? Of course we can only make a "guesstimate."
First, while I think North Korea is trying to signal its displeasure with the ROK (and indirectly with the US) it is in keeping with its "normal" (or seven decades old) playbook of blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tension or provocations to obtain political and economic concessions. As we know the regime needs sanctions relief but it has failed to obtain it. Kim wants to blackmail Moon just as his father did Kim Dae Jung. Because of Moon's unrelenting focus on his peace strategy Kim must believe he can coerce or extort concessions from him. Since Moon wants peace so bad Kim believes he will do what is necessary to prevent conflict. So far Moon has been constrained due to sanctions and US pressure because if he violates sanctions the ROK government and any persons or businesses (especially banks) who enable sanctions evasions will find themselves designated for sanctions violations.
Second, this is not a new tactic for North Korea. It has cut communications many times over the years sometimes for very long periods of time. The conventional wisdom (and logic) says these communications links can help us to prevent conflict due to misunderstanding or misinterpretation of events because each side can communicate to prevent escalation. However, these channels of communication are really symbolic and not really as effective as we all would hope. That is because whomever is on the North Korea will have little to no authority or understanding of the situation and will only be a conduit for passing messages up the chain of command. It is not a responsive channel due to the nature of the Kim family and its absolute requirement for central control.
The risk of conflict is always at the same level. Why is that? Because we just cannot know Kim Jong-un's intent. We assess and judge the north's capabilities, we can track indicators and warnings, but we just do not know when Kim is going to make a decision to conduct a provocation or a larger attack. Whether the hotline is working or not the chances of conflict remain the same because the hotline is not going to prevent Kim from making the decision to act.
The only thing that will affect Kim Jong-un's decision making is the strength of the ROK/US alliance the belief the alliance will respond with decisive force to an attack. He will not attack into strength. But he will exploit weakness. That is what he perceives in the ROK - he perceives Moon is weak because of his vision of a peace strategy.
4. RIP, President Moon's North Korea Peace Initiative?
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · June 9, 2020
RIP? President Moon's peace strategy was well thought out and logical. But the problem is not with the strategy or even the Moon administration. The problem lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un. Even the most brilliant strategy will not work against Kim Jong-un because he has his strategic aim and objectives in his DNA and he will never give them up (e.g., the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State must dominate the entire peninsula). And we must neve forget this: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
RIP? I am afraid the Moon Administration's strategy was DOA - dead on arrival simply because of the nature of the Kim family regime. So people will naturally ask what should we do? We have to take a long erm view, play our long game versus Kim's Long con and the ROK/US alliance must conduct a superior form of political warfare to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
5. N.Korea Diplomacy Back to Square One
english.chosun.com· June 10, 2020
I do not recall us ever getting paste square one. (though not for lack of trying) Again, Kim Jong-un is the problem.
6. Kim Jong Un Raises Pressure on South Korea to Split With Trump
caixinglobal.com· Jun 10, 2020
It is good to see someone write this and expose one of the regime's lines of effort in support of its long con and political warfare with Juche characteristics. Divide to conquer.
We must continually ask and assess the answers to these questions.
Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
7. North Korea building up nuclear arsenal, researchers say
No one should be surprised.
8. North Korea lashes out, says it will cut ties with South Korea
washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor
My comments on Kim Yo-jong below.
9. N. Korean Regime Hints at Straits of Pyongyang Elite
english.chosun.com ·June 09, 2020
This is an important indicator. This is one reason why the north is lashing out at South Korea. It has to have an external enemy and someone to blame. But it is this pressure on the regime elite that has the best chance of forcing Kim to change his calculus. There is no guarantee that he will but this indicates that a maximum pressure 2.0 campaign can generate the internal pressure necessary for Kim to change. As President Trump and Secretary Pompeo have said over and over again - if Kim Jong-un makes the right strategic decision there can be a brighter future for North Korea.
10. North Korean defectors unable to send rice amid opposition
upi.com ·June 8, 2020
Video at the link from RFA that shows one of the methods escapees use to get information to the north. Low tech and not very sophisticated but they do get across. This is only one method. Another is balloon launches. Another is across the Chinese border with electronic media. Electronic media is really key because a large number of the Korean people in the north have access to electric devices that can watch videos. There are 6.5 million smart phones on the internal North Korean network. Many more have Chinese made DVD-like players. We should be doubling down on information and influence activities (I know I sound like a broken record but the message must be repeated over and over again - we need decision makers in the South and the US and the international community to embrace influence activities).
11. North Korean leader's sister emerges as policymaker in spat with South Korea
Reuters · by Josh Smith · June 10, 2020
Is she being groomed for succession? Or is she the only person Kim Jong-un trusts? (As some escapees have told us).
12. Construction in Pyongyang: The Pyongyang General Hospital and More
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · June 9, 2020
Will the regime wait until this hospital is finished before it announces it is suffering from the coronavirus?
13. North Korea might be making millions selling sand. Yes, sand.
CNN · by Joshua Berlinger, CNN Business
Good work from C4ADS. Sand is in short supply for construction in many places around the world. The regime is adaptive and this contributes to its resiliency.
14. 'Some starving' in North Korea as COVID constrains China trade, say UN experts
DW · by Deutsche Welle, 09 June 2020
The cause of starvation is two-fold. In this case it is the result of the draconian population and resources control measures to prevent a coronavirus outbreak. This has shut down trade in ways more effectively than sanctions. The second reason is seven decades old: the bankrupt policy decisions of the Kim family regime. The regime has the long had the money and the ability to feed the Korean people in the north but its policy choices have consistently prioritized the regime, the elite, the military, and the nuclear and missile programs over the Korean people. But the US and UN and the sanctions will be blamed.
15. Kim Jong-Un a 'foolish leader' says family of woman kidnapped by North Korea
New York Post · by Jackie Salo · June 9, 2020
Just a reminder of the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime.
16. North Korea desperately building new hospital as it fears huge Covid-19 outbreak
dailystar.co.uk · by Tom Towers · June 10, 2020
The sad thing is that if there is an outbreak in north Korea this hospital will do little for the vast majority of the Koreans who will suffer from it (and perhaps are suffering).
But Kim Jong-un must be afraid, very afraid.
17. Senate confirms Gen. Brown, with experience in S. Korea, as new U.S. Air Force chief
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 10, 2020
Korea is happy to see this since General Brown has junior and relatively senior service in Korea and of course as PACAF Korea was likely at the top of his priority target list.
-----------
"I love America more than any other country in the world and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."
- James Baldwin
"To sin by silence, when they should protest, makes cowards of men."
- Ella Wheeler Wilcox
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable."
- John F. Kennedy