News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm peninsula denuke goal, cooperation on vaccines, Myanmar
2. As the Dust Settles, How Healthy is the ROK-US Alliance?
3. G7's rivalry with China complicates Korea's balancing act
4. Moon joins G-7 summit, vows financial support for global vaccine supply
5. Moon calls for global unity to strengthen open societies at G-7 summit
6. Moon meets Suga at G-7, but bilateral session not in the cards
7. ‘Assassins,’ about death of N. Korea’s Kim Jong-nam, denied art film status
8. G-7 calls for 'complete' denuclearization of N. Korea, welcomes Washington's diplomacy towards Pyongyang: communique
9. North Korean Missiles Continue to Pose a Big Threat
10. Kim Jong-un health panic: North Korea regime could collapse - US intelligence on alert
1. Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm peninsula denuke goal, cooperation on vaccines, Myanmar
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 13, 2021
It does appear the ROK and US are working to operationalize and execute many of the agreements and initiatives announced in the summit. This is a positive trend.
2. As the Dust Settles, How Healthy is the ROK-US Alliance?
38north.org · by Sukjoon Yoon · June 11, 2021
A cautionary analysis. I am optimistic about the alliance but I think the problems with the north Korea agenda lie with Kim Jong-un though we have to recognize the difference in views between the ROK and US toward north Korea.
Conclusion: “For the present, the ROK-US alliance remains intact, but there is considerable uncertainty about its future. “There is an expanded vision for the Indo-Pacific Strategy, in which South Korea plays a bigger regional and global role, both in security terms and more generally.” But it is unclear whether, beyond rhetoric, any real-world changes will result. The summit also provided very little information on what the US and South Korea are actually going to do about North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats. Indeed, there are significant differences between Moon and Biden on how to deal with North Korea, with Moon still hoping to make short-term progress on the inter-Korean peace initiative and the US still putting the issue of denuclearization first. Despite the positive tone of the summit and Moon’s endorsement of the Biden administration’s new negotiating strategy, there were no indications of how to get the North Koreans back to the table.
While the summit joint statement will be presented as a win for both presidents, Moon has been obliged to tilt the South toward the United States’ policy on China, and to that extent, the Biden
3. G7's rivalry with China complicates Korea's balancing act
The Korea Times · by Kwon Mee-yoo · June 13, 2021
I know it gets old to read about the "shrimp among whales" analogy but this is just another example of how it aptly describes Korea's situation.
I wonder if B3W is going to catch on as an acronym. If it does then the G7 narrative will be competitive with the Chinese BRI or OBOR. I hope the supporting information and influence campaign from the GEC at State and NSC for the White House is in place and coordinated with the other members of the G7 and D10. If this is an important initiative and one the G7 and D10 plan to sincerely get behind we need to get the narrative right and dominate the information and influence space.
Excerpts: “Earlier on Saturday, the White House also announced the launch of the "Build Back Better World" (B3W) project, a global infrastructure plan aimed to provide infrastructure support to developing and emerging countries.
The White House said that the B3W project will mobilize private-sector capital in a "transparent infrastructure partnership" to provide support in four areas ― climate, health, digital technology and gender equity and equality ― for developing countries hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.
"B3W will be global in scope, from Latin America and the Caribbean, to Africa, to the Indo-Pacific. Different G7 partners will have different geographic orientations, but the sum of the initiative will cover low- and middle-income countries across the world," the White House said in a statement.
4. Moon joins G-7 summit, vows financial support for global vaccine supply
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 13, 2021
South Korea has the opportunity to take the stage as a great middle power.
5. Moon calls for global unity to strengthen open societies at G-7 summit
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 13, 2021
This can be viewed as a statement contrary to Chinese interests and could be interpreted that the ROK comes down on the side closer to the Quad and G7 than to China.
Excerpts: “Moon briefed them on South Korea's experience in democratization and efforts to strengthen open societies, according to his office Cheong Wa Dae.
He emphasized the need for enhancing international collaboration to counter racialism, extremism and other threats to open societies as well as expanding free and fair trade and fostering an open economy.
He is scheduled to join another G-7 forum on "climate and nature" later in the day just before he wraps up his three-day stay in Cornwall, Britain. He is flying to Austria for a state visit, the second leg of his three-nation Europe tour that will also take him to Spain.”
6. Moon meets Suga at G-7, but bilateral session not in the cards
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · June 13, 2021
Interesting positioning of the world leaders in this photo.
7. ‘Assassins,’ about death of N. Korea’s Kim Jong-nam, denied art film status
m.koreaherald.com · by Kim Hae-yeon · June 10, 2021
Is this an attempt to appease north Korea?
8. G-7 calls for 'complete' denuclearization of N. Korea, welcomes Washington's diplomacy towards Pyongyang: communique
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · June 13, 2021
It is good to see the G7 acknowledge this.
9. North Korean Missiles Continue to Pose a Big Threat
The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 11, 2021
Excerpt: "With its development of more capable ballistic missile systems, some have pointed to the possibility that North Korea is actively working to develop the ability to defeat U.S. ballistic missile defenses. Recently developed North Korean SRBMs have shown themselves to potentially be capable of evading such systems, while the possible development of a reliable SLBM could allow North Korea to circumvent some defenses. North Korea’s large recently unveiled ICBM, meanwhile, could eventually support multiple re-entry vehicles, which could pose a challenge to U.S. missile defenses."
10. Kim Jong-un health panic: North Korea regime could collapse - US intelligence on alert
Express · by Brian McGleenon · June 13, 2021
There is probably no one in the CFC C2 and the USFK J2 that recalls that most of the indicators of north Korean instability and regime collapse they are using are derived from Robert Collins, and his seminal work, Patterns of Collapse or the Seven Phases of north Korean regime collapse. The analysts (and the C2 and J2) would do well to pay attention to his work. There is no one who has studied this possible phenomena or knows more about how instability and regime collapse might emerge and unfold than Robert Collins. Many have written about this over the years at various times but all (me included) base their work on Robert Collins' research directly or if they do not directly they are drawing their writing on secondary sources that are based on his work that may or may not be acknowledged (I recall a briefing Bob gave to a defense official in the 1990s and a year later when the defense official left government he wrote about collapse. His work contained critical analysis produced by Bob and presented in that briefing and there was no acknowledgement). So the chances are that many so-called "experts" on instability and collapse have based much of their research on Bob's work, whether they know it or not.
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"It is by its promise of a sense of power that evil often attracts the weak."
- Eric Hoffer
“Second we find in our prerevolutionary society definite and indeed very bitter class antagonisms, though these antagonisms seem rather more complicated than the cruder Marxists will allow.”
- Crane Brinton
"First, I continue to think that people, with all their diverse identities, desires, and beliefs, should be central to our analyses of conflict. This means that individuals should be the prism through which to examine the effects of social structures, beliefs, and the possibilities for mobilization and political action. Is “relative deprivation” the best concept for doing so? In my own later writings I have used the words grievances and sense of injustice to capture the essence of the state of mind that motivates people to political action. Whichever phrase is used, the essential first step in any analysis is to understand what people’s grievances are and where they come from."
-Ted Gurr