News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Reform and open North Korea is the only way for economic unification of Korean Peninsula
2. Can North Korea Survive Without Its Chairman?
3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞The Death Toll is Finally Starting to Rise. A Serious Humanitarian Crisis is a Man-made Disaster. Jiro Ishimaru
4. South Korea, US tilting toward downsizing combined drill
5. U.S. Insists on Joint Drill Schedule in August
6. Seoul, Washington agree to reduce the size of military exercises
7. New USFK commander pressed on Opcon transfer by Suh
8. Computer simulation exercises make N. Korea even emboldened
9. China criticizes U.S. for several decades’ menace to N. Korea
10. How will ‘emaciated’ Kim Jong-un ride out a famine in North Korea? With China’s help
11. China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization
12. Int'l Red Cross stays committed to helping N. Korea, ready to resume assistance projects
13. Not by the Gun Alone: Biographies of Kim Jong Un and the Puzzling Power of North Korean Leaders
14. S. Korea, Israel to speed up joint R&D projects
15. N. Korea hit recently with greater volatility in prices, exchange rate: ministry
16. Hyesan residential housing complex set alight after gas explosion
17. Two soldiers flee after murdering kindergarten teacher and her mother in Hoeryong
1. Reform and open North Korea is the only way for economic unification of Korean Peninsula
onekoreanetwork.com · July 4, 2021
From our good friend RI Jong-ho formerly of north Korea with deep knowledge of the Kim family regime. Again, the north Korean paradox: north Korea must reform to save the country and its people. However, reform and opening is an existential threat to the Kim family regime.
We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. For those who want to engage north Korea I urge you to answer my two key questions:
1. Do we see any evidence that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
If the answer is no then we must proceed accordingly with our own superior political warfare strategy.
Two key points:
“To understand North Korea properly, we need to know the nature of the Kim family and the dictatorship and why it hasn’t opened the country for 75 years. In North Korea, the means of production, land, and resources are all owned by the state, meaning it’s all owned by Kim Jong-un. It is said that Kim Jong-un is the nation and the party and represents the military and the people. He monopolizes everything in North Korea, decides everything, and all the wealth is focused on him, the absolute power. Therefore, even if the South requests cooperation from the North, it can only be executed after receiving Kim Jong-un’s policy and decision.
...
From a North Korean perspective, President Moon Jae-in’s policy of peaceful coexistence is an anachronistic delusional policy. President Moon is proposing a policy to engage in a peaceful resolution with a North Korean dictator who dreams of armed reunification by committing crimes against humanity.”
And I fully concur with Mr. Ri's conclusion: “As world history and the 75-year history of the Korean Peninsula have shown, the two opposing system cannot peacefully coexist. I think peace on the Korean Peninsula will be achieved when institutional unification is established with liberal democracy and a market economy rather than emotional logic. Therefore, we should all actively try to change the communist dictatorship of North Korea, which is a cancerous enemy of unification of the Korean Peninsula.”
I would say it this way: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
2. Can North Korea Survive Without Its Chairman?
thediplomat.com · by Chan Young Bang · July 2, 2021
While succession may be tenuous due to the nature of the regime I disagree with the conclusion here:
“To ensure the survival of North Korea, Kim Jong Un must trade his nuclear arsenal for economic prosperity and peace. By creating a viable economic development plan that guides economic modernization over a 10 year period, Kim can ensure the sovereignty of North Korea during and after his rule. The blueprint must consist of human resources development, viable labor markets, the legalization of free enterprise, increased foreign investment, and the introduction of private property rights. An economic development fund as part of a package deal with China, Russia, Japan, the United States, and South Korea could be issued annually in accordance with North Korea’s successful fulfillment of its denuclearization obligations. By relinquishing juche, and replacing his ruling legitimacy with an inclusive economic system focused on the economic wellbeing of the people, Kim Jong Un will cement his legacy and the survival of the DPRK, with the popular support of the 25 million citizens of North Korea.”
KJU is not going to give up his nuclear weapons. He is not going to act in the best interests of the country or of the 25 million Koreans' living in the north. He is only going to act in the best interests of the regime and ultimately only himself. He cannot reform. To change is to die within the regime.
3. ＜Inside N. Korea＞The Death Toll is Finally Starting to Rise. A Serious Humanitarian Crisis is a Man-made Disaster. Jiro Ishimaru
Important analysis here. It is not the sanctions causing the suffering. It is Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions.
Excerpts: “Since the beginning of June, the lives of the North Korean people have been deteriorating as if a weir had been broken. It is frustrating that the reality of the situation has not been conveyed to the world. This is because the Kim Jong-un regime has closed the borders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, preventing people from coming in and out of the country, thus preventing information from being released. The writer has maintained contact with his reporting partners using a Chinese cell phone brought into North Korea. However, the current situation is judged to be the worst humanitarian crisis in Asia.
As I have mentioned several times before, the cause of the crisis was the blockade of the border with China, which led to a sharp decline in trade. It was also the tightening of controls on movement and commerce within the country as if martial law had been declared.
The significant slump in trade and markets reduced everyone's cash income. Food is no longer available from those who have depleted their reserves. The situation that residents feared a year ago, "I'm more afraid of hunger than of coronavirus," has become a reality. Vulnerable groups such as single older people, single mothers, and families with sick people were the first to fall on hard times.
4. South Korea, US tilting toward downsizing combined drill
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · July 5, 2021
There is some reporting on the August combined exercises today and I will forward the various articles (to include an OpEd). I will say again it is delusional to believe that by scaling back the exercises (or postponing or cancelling) will result in any kind of positive response from north Korea. In fact doing so only leads to KJU doubling down on his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.
We must train. We must conduct multi-echelon training with the right training for the right forces, e.g., field exercises for tactical units and Combined Command Post training with computer simulation for the higher HQ).
My thoughts with background on the exercises are here: The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward.
5. U.S. Insists on Joint Drill Schedule in August
As we should (and must).
While it may be true that the South Korean military authorities may be trying to "wrangle a reduction in scope or scale," I am confident they are doing it under duress and at the behest of the civilian political leadership. I am sure they have provided their advice and recommendations as to why it is necessary to conduct this combined training and that it must not be scaled back and especially not postponed:”Buut South Korean military authorities are still trying to wrangle a reduction in scope or scale. "I understand that the joint drills will highly likely be conducted for about 10 days from Aug. 16 without any field maneuvers," a military source said.
6. Seoul, Washington agree to reduce the size of military exercises
donga.com · July 5, 2021
We should not forget that live tactical training occurs year around and it is not necessary for large scale exercises for tactical units to get field training.
Excerpts: “But as they decided to reduce the size, the possibility of field training exercise not being held for four years since August 2018 has become higher. It seems that the U.S. more or less accepted South Korea’s judgement that normalizing the drill size would provoke North Korea, which has been demanding suspension of it, thus putting a damper on the resumption of the U.S.-North Korea talks. “Our talks with the U.S. were successful,” said a South Korean government insider. “Military authorities of the two countries will continue to discuss on details such as content of the drills and reinforcement of the U.S. troops.”
The joint military drills planned to be held in March last year was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In August last year and March this year, the drills were significantly reduced in size and conducted in computer simulation without live training.
7. New USFK commander pressed on Opcon transfer by Suh
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim · July 5, 2021
But Minister Suh must know that without conducting robust training exercises the ROK/US CFC will not be prepared for OPCON transition. The ROK must choose between readiness and preparing for OPCON transition or appeasing north Korea and KJU with delusional concessions such as scaling back, postponing, or cancelling exercises.
8. Computer simulation exercises make N. Korea even emboldened
donga.com · July 5, 2021
Concessions embolden KJU to double down on blackmail diplomacy. Those who advocate cancelling, postponing, and scaling back exercises are willing to put the ROK and its people at grave risk.
Excerpts: “But the decision is only making North Korea even more emboldened. The size of military exercises started to shrink on the premise that the North would continue discussions and stop provocations in 2018 when inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea summits were held. But Pyongyang has been holding onto the ambiguous tensions between talks and conflicts, refusing all types of negotiations since the end of 2019. The North provokes South Korea with its short distance missiles without hesitation while pretending that it retrained itself from using nuclear and long-distance missiles, earning time to enhance its nuclear capacity.
Such abnormal situations have persisted for four years, which is creating concerns that our military readiness posture is weakening and the very existence of the U.S. troops in South Korea is becoming precarious. The joint military drills are the pillar of the South Korea-U.S. alliance along with the U.S. troops in South Korea and combined forces command. It is naturally difficult for the combined forces command to effectively respond to surprise military provocations of North Korea only with sub-battalion level drills without live training. This is exactly what the North intends.
9. China criticizes U.S. for several decades’ menace to N. Korea
donga.com · July 5, 2021
And China supports the most despotic authoritarian regime that conducts crimes against humanity on a scale not seen since WWII according to the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry. And China is compact in those human rights abuses by not treating escapees from the north as refugees and providing them the protections required by international law. Instead they forcibly repatriate them to certain inhumane punishment and possibly execution.
10. How will ‘emaciated’ Kim Jong-un ride out a famine in North Korea? With China’s help
SCMP · by Maria Siow
No war, no instability and regime collapse, and no nukes. Expect China to throw a lifeline to help keep the regime's head above water. But it is unlikely to pull the regime to shore and make it stronger. It will ensure that the regime stays afloat and the status quo is maintained for as long as possible.
11. China's role growing in North Korean denuclearization
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · July 5, 2021
For China, denuclearization is the last priority. No war and no instability are far more important to China.
We should also keep in mind that while China can exert influence over north Korea, the Kim family regime has been successful for 70+ years at manipulating all the powers to include Russia and China.
Excerpt: “China is seen as the only country that can exert influence on North Korea, given that it is Pyongyang's biggest trading partner and the Kim regime's economic lifeline. In addition, the North Korean leader vowed to elevate relations with Beijing to a new strategic level in his congratulatory message to Chinese President Xi Jinping marking the 100th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, Thursday.
12. Int'l Red Cross stays committed to helping N. Korea, ready to resume assistance projects
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · July 5, 2021
The Red Cross (and the ROK, US and international community) is committed to helping north Korea. Kim Jong-un is not committed to receiving it.
13. Not by the Gun Alone: Biographies of Kim Jong Un and the Puzzling Power of North Korean Leaders
Los Angeles Review of Books · July 4, 2021
Two important books that are based on very different sources of analysis and use very different "analytical" techniques. Keep in mind Dr. Jung Pak is now the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific and the deputy Special Representative to North Korea. So her book can provide insights into the type of advice she is likely to provide our government about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
14. S. Korea, Israel to speed up joint R&D projects
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 5, 2021
15. N. Korea hit recently with greater volatility in prices, exchange rate: ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · July 5, 2021
Typing to centrally control the north Korean economy leads only to failure. The crackdown on markets, the prohibition of foreign currency, the restrictions on movement, communications, and information and the closure of the border with China to both legal and illicit trade only makes things worse.
16. Hyesan residential housing complex set alight after gas explosion
dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · July 5, 2021
The state, government, and party are not able to provide effective essential services to the people.
Just like in August, the local fire department failed to arrive at the scene until two hours after the fire began – and after local residents had already subdued the blaze.
17. Two soldiers flee after murdering kindergarten teacher and her mother in Hoeryong
dailynk.com · July 5, 2021
Any indications of the breakdown in the three chains of control? (military, political security).
Again, we have to think about the possibility fo instability and what it means if the military chain of control breaks down and the military loses coherency and support for the regime ends.
Quote from "Should The United States Support for Korean Unification And If So, How?"
Regime collapse is defined as the loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime, combined with the loss of support and coherency of the military and security services. Although bottom-up internal resistance could lead to regime collapse, the regime’s demise is more likely to result from its inability to support the military and security services. Regime collapse is a result of friction within the regime elite and “deprioritization” of key military units. Regime collapse would likely lead to internal conflict, as actors fight to retain power and resources. In the worst case, when faced with significant internal or external pressure and the threat of regime collapse, Kim Jong-un might make the decision to execute his campaign plan to reunify the peninsula under his control, thus ensuring survival of his family’s regime (in his calculus). However, if collapse occurs without a direct attack on the ROK, the ROK–U.S. alliance, the UN Command, or both (and possibly also China) will likely have to conduct stabilization operations in the North to prevent spillover, establish security, restore stability, and relieve humanitarian suffering. Again, once the security situation is stabilized there could be a return to the ideal path to reunification. All of the planning and preparation that has taken place would still have value and could still be applied. Furthermore, many of the preparations could help mitigate the negative effects of regime collapse. (page 144-145,).
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