Although U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates's keynote address touched on piracy and Afghanistan and included a plea to support Iraq, his remarks left little doubt about the U.S. government's goal for this forum. The U.S. is preparing a containment strategy against Iran and it needs to organize the front line of that containment cordon. The Gulf states will obviously be that front line.
A recent report from the Brookings Institution comprehensively discussed a full range of options available to the Obama administration concerning Iran. The report grimly concluded that none of the diplomatic, covert action, or military options showed much promise. The default option pursued haphazardly by the U.S. government for the past three decades has been one version or another of containment. The Brookings report made no recommendations but hinted that the Obama administration will likely settle on containment just as have all U.S. administrations since 1979.
By Brookings' definition, containing Iran means accepting Iran's theocracy and accepting Iran's eventual emergence as a nuclear weapons state. During the early years of the Cold War U.S. statesmen had to make very similar concessions, which led directly to containment strategies against the Soviet Union and Maoist China. Once the U.S. settled on containment, the task then became organizing the front-line alliances in Europe and East Asia. An explicit containment policy aimed at Iran means organizing the Gulf states. Thus Centcom's conference this week at the Fairfax Hotel.
A successful containment effort requires broad international support. According to the Brookings report (see page 135) a U.S. containment strategy would attempt to weaken Iran's economy, thwart Iran's ballistic missile capabilities, and counter Iran's attempts at regional subversion and proxy warfare. Under a containment strategy the U.S. government would enlist Europe, Russia, China, India, and East Asia to restrict trade with Iran, especially investment in Iran's energy sector, a topic I recent discussed. Thwarting Iran's missile and irregular warfare threats will require greater regional military and intelligence cooperation with the U.S. which once again brings to mind this week's Centcom conference.
Is the Obama administration preparing the way for an explicit containment of Iran along the lines described in the Brookings report? In order to increase international cooperation with a containment strategy, the Obama administration needs to convince the international community that the Iranian regime is a distasteful menace. The Obama team may hope that its repeated eagerness to engage Iran, an effort it may calculate Iran's leadership will scuttle, would demonstrate to the international community that Iran and not the U.S. is the problem. The U.S. may hope that this gambit clears the way for an effective containment strategy.
According to Brookings, a containment strategy means accepting Iran as a nuclear weapons state. If the region is to avoid a subsequent nuclear and ballistic missile arms race, the Gulf states will have to have great confidence in U.S. security guarantees. Gates and General Petraeus are likely hoping that forums like the Gulf States Chiefs of Defense Conference will eventually remove the urge for countries like Saudi Arabia to hedge with their own strategic programs. Whether Arab states will be —to bet their possible survival on U.S. promises remains to be seen.