A storm ahead for the U.S.-Japan alliance?

After suffering another humiliating defeat in local elections in Tokyo, Prime Minister Taro Aso has called for a general election for Japan's lower house of parliament to be held on August 30. Aso's Liberal Democratic Party has, except for a quirky two-year period in the mid-1990s, basically ruled Japanese politics since the country regained its sovereignty after World War II. Yet the LDP is predicted to lose power to the Democratic Party, an event which would be a watershed in Japanese political history.

Will it also be a watershed for the U.S.-Japan strategic alliance? We are just entering the election campaign period so the specific party platforms have yet to be revealed. In addition, foreign policy and national security issues are expected to play a minor part in the campaign.

Yet three murmurs have come from the Democratic camp: stricter adherence to the non-interventionist Article Nine of the constitution; less cooperation with the U.S. foreign policy agenda; and greater Japanese defense self-reliance. Such murmurs should be considered warily; it is one thing to propose something during a political campaign and another to dramatically change a long-standing national policy, something about which the permanent bureaucracy in Japan has much to say.

Yet even without the drama created by a change in government, the U.S.-Japan strategic alliance has come under increasing strain. In February the Center for Strategic and International Studies held its annual conference on the alliance and released its report from the conference last month. Academics and think-tank scholars from Japan and the U.S., along with U.S. Pacific Command officials, exchanged views on the health and trajectory of the alliance (see the key findings starting on page 1).

The conference concluded that the Japanese side has some growing concerns. The Japanese policy establishment is concerned that the U.S. will reach agreements with either North Korea or China that will cut out Japan's security interests. Japan is concerned that the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review will neglect Japan's concerns about threats in the region. Japan is angry about being strung along on a possible F-22 purchase. Japan wonders about the U.S. commitment to missile defense.

The expansion of Chinese military power and North Korea on the edge of some transition would be stress enough for the alliance. Now add in a new administration in Washington with new geopolitical views and an impending landmark change of government in Japan. For years, top U.S. policy makers have treated Japan, America's most important ally, with benign neglect. With the rapid changes now occurring in northeast Asia, complacency is a dangerous policy.

POSTSCRIPT

At least the Obama administration has followed the practice of its predecessors and appointed as its ambassador to Japan the most experienced statesman it could find ... oh wait!