News

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Supporting our Indian Partners

2. China launches app for citizens to report 'mistaken opinions'

3. Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

4. The Latest: Biden says US set on helping India with pandemic

5. Air Force Academy grads revolt against superintendent's 'both sides' position on violent extremism

6. Top US general in Afghanistan says military begins closing down operations

7. Xi Jinping: Master Of Strategy Or Deluded Autocrat? – Analysis

8. Diplomatic Posturing And The Power Game In Southeast Asia

9. Bring Back Education for Seapower

10. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 26, 2021 | SOF News

11. Options for a Dedicated Stability Operations Force Supporting Large Scale Combat Operations

12. Enough about ‘not picking sides.’ The only right position is against white supremacy and extremism

13. Was the Postwar U.S. International Order Truly Liberal?

14. War in All but Name

15. Special Operations Command blames hacker for tweet about Islamic State, Afghanistan

16. U.S. military’s appetite for information fueling demand for space technology

17. Interests, Not Values, Should Guide America’s China Strategy

18. China’s surprising drone sales in the Middle East

19. FDD | Why the Russia-China Alignment Is So Worrisome

 

1. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Supporting our Indian Partners

defense.gov · April 25, 2021

 

2. China launches app for citizens to report 'mistaken opinions'

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers · April 19, 2021

 

3.  Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “China stakes a territorial claim over essentially the entire body of water. Relying on voyages of the admiral Zheng He from the 1600s, China in the 1940s delineated what it calls the “Nine-Dash Line,” a maritime boundary within which it maintains the fiction of sovereignty. This is disputed by virtually every other nation in the region (many of whom have overlapping and competing claims with not only China, but each other as well). An international court largely dismissed the overarching Chinese claim in 2016.

As China plays the long game to consolidate control, it is building artificial islands. These are mostly in areas with promising oil and gas fields in the sea’s southern reaches and around the Spratly Islands, which are themselves disputed between several of the nations. There are seven completed islands, all militarized and some with airfields, but nobody thinks Beijing will stop there.

...

How great are the chances of such a multi-ocean military conflict between the two superpowers and their allies? Far, far lower than the likelihood of a flare-up in the Taiwan Strait or East China Sea. But much as Europe stumbled into World War I because of extensive networks of alliances, it is entirely possible a war in the western Pacific could bring conflict to Indian waters.

It would have been hard for young Ensign Stavridis to imagine any of this while sailing across the Pacific in the 1970s — but alliances have significantly shifted, even if geography has not.

 

4. The Latest: Biden says US set on helping India with pandemic

mercurynews.com · by Associated Press · April 25, 2021

And other COVID information around the world.

 

5. Air Force Academy grads revolt against superintendent's 'both sides' position on violent extremism

Raw Story · by Bob Brigham · April 24, 2021

 

6. Top US general in Afghanistan says military begins closing down operations

militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · April 25, 2021

 

7. Xi Jinping: Master Of Strategy Or Deluded Autocrat? – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by IWPR · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “China’s most dominant ruler since Mao Zedong doesn’t set much store on being loved by foreigners. He looks happy to settle for fear or respect, and in many parts of the world, from Africa, Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America and the Balkans, he’s already succeeded.

But for all his gains, including closer partnerships with Iran and Russia, Xi’s aggressive posture often appears reckless, alerting leaders from Washington and Brussels to Hanoi and Delhi to a new and pressing danger.

Certainly, China’s pugnacious territorial claims in the East and South China Seas have breathed fresh life into the Quad, the security forum in the Indian and Pacific oceans that brings together the United States, Japan, India and Australia.

But analysts caution that Western politicians are in danger of a profound misunderstanding if they try to assess Beijing’s national security strategy on the same terms as those in democratic countries.

 

8. Diplomatic Posturing And The Power Game In Southeast Asia

eurasiareview.com · by Eurasia Review · April 25, 2021

A new fleet? 365 day presence?

Conclusion: "The US needs to designate a dedicated naval fleet for the South China Sea, so it has a constant presence 365 days a year. This would limit the influence of China in the region, restore the symmetry of trade relations to some extent and stop the undue exploitation of smaller states by the People’s Republic of China. Naval cooperation and joint exercises in the South China Sea challenge China in particular when French and Canadian navies are involved. Quad and Quad-plus like cooperation is the way forward, however, this could lead to catastrophe if maritime management systems and communications channels are not established. China has to adjust to the presence of an extra-regional power in the South China Sea, and the US and allies have to work to keep China’s assertive behaviour at bay while avoiding accidental conflict."

 

9. Bring Back Education for Seapower

usni.org · by Mark R. Folse · April 20, 2021

All services need to increase investment in education.

There is some truth to this statement. When I was the chief of SF officer assignments more officers wanted to go to Newport than any other school and more senior leaders weighed in to recommend officers go to Newport due to the respect for its excellent education program.

Excerpt: "The Navy sends junior officers into higher echelon programs, and staff corps officers (dentists and chaplains) to the war colleges instead of surface warfare officers and aviators. It has been said as a joke that “the Naval War College is the school to which every branch but the Navy sends its best and brightest.”

 

10. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 26, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 26, 2021

 

11. Options for a Dedicated Stability Operations Force Supporting Large Scale Combat Operations

divergentoptions.org · by Kevin Maguire · April 26, 2021

Stability operations are inherent long term. Would such a force be committed for the duration? (Plus six months such as enlistments in WWII - the duration plus 6 months). Or to sustain the force over time would it take "three to make one?" Would we need a force that is three times the projected size in order to sustain long duration operations? Wouldn't that be a huge drain on service end strength?

 

12. Enough about ‘not picking sides.’ The only right position is against white supremacy and extremism

airforcetimes.com · by Esteban Castellanos · April 24, 2021

 

13. Was the Postwar U.S. International Order Truly Liberal?

theimaginativeconservative.org · by Andrew Latham · April 25, 2021

The post WWII liberal order: more imperial than liberal?

A review of two books.

 

14.  War in All but Name

thestrategybridge.org · by Derek S. Bernsen · April 26, 2021

Key point that we must understand and embrace: "Information warfare provides the perfect mechanism to erode U.S. power without resorting to direct conflict."

Conclusion: “Finally, the Department of Defense needs to continue to grow its cyber force. U.S. Cyber Command has come a long way in demonstrating its value, conducting operations, and even helping the information security community through malware disclosures.[41] This momentum needs to be seized upon. As U.S. Cyber Command continues to hone its craft, it needs to start integrating with the more traditional parts of the military. Special Operations Forces are the obvious first candidate for integrating with cyber operations. Special Operations personnel are already asked to do more than the average unit and often are the first to experiment with new technology. The innovative and can-do mindset present in these units combined with the many unique skills and cross-training these units receive creates the perfect environment for the military to experiment with cyber and kinetic operations integration. Add in Special Operations’ history of psychological operations and influence campaigns which are already considered Information Warfare, and cyber becomes the logical next step for bringing the force into the future. Eventually the U.S. will need to realize the goal of integrating cyberspace operations with every operational branch of the military from infantry and armor, to ships, aircraft, and spacecraft. Furthermore, retired Admiral James Stavridis articulates the argument for a separate cyber branch of the military.[42]

While the U.S. is already at war, if it can incorporate and prioritize these four actions in the new National Security Strategy it will be significantly better positioned to compete, defend, and fight with information warfare. Adversaries will avoid a direct conflict and instead seek to leverage information warfare to undermine the U.S. and gain a dominant global position. A strategy enabling the U.S. to fight back must incorporate the rebuilding of the United States Information Agency, lessons from Estonia, incentivize the overhaul of our legacy systems, and fully integrate cyberspace operations throughout the military.

 

15. Special Operations Command blames hacker for tweet about Islamic State, Afghanistan

Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · April 25, 2021

 

16. U.S. military’s appetite for information fueling demand for space technology

spacenews.com · by Sandra Erwin · April 25, 2021

 

17. Interests, Not Values, Should Guide America’s China Strategy

The National Interest · by Elbridge Colby · April 25, 2021

It cannot be either/or. It must be both/and in my opinion.

Values based approach excerpt: “The problem is that this approach will almost certainly disappoint and, if resolutely pursued, risks weakening U.S. links with many of the very countries that will be most key to confronting China—many of which are not democracies or are considered only “partly free” by institutions such as Freedom House. The basic flaw in this now ascendant U.S. approach is twofold. First, it mislocates the decisive arena of competition with China. The results of the competition with China will not primarily be determined by global political institutions and perceptions of our respective political systems but rather chiefly by the balance of hard economic and military power, especially in Asia. Second, it misidentifies the main reason countries will or will not collaborate with Washington vis-à-vis China. Exaggerating the role of “values” and ideology in international politics, it inherently downplays the salience of security and economic interests. This leads to an over-expectation of what democracies, especially in Europe, will do, while discounting the central importance of what other states, especially in Asia, need to do.

​Conclusion: “AMERICA NEEDS its allies to do more. That much is clear. The question now is how. The idea of a league of democracies is a stirring answer, but is very likely to be more inspirational than consequential. Washington must instead found its efforts with allies and partners on sturdier, if perhaps lower, ground—that of common interest. With this approach, America can collaborate with a wide variety of different types of states in differing arrangements, bound together by shared fears and organizing based on aligned interests. America can and should still stand for freedom, decent treatment, and republican government, but within the constraints and logic of this overarching interest-based approach—not as a primary driver of U.S. strategy. This approach may move hearts less, but it is more likely to move mind and muscle—and ultimately to better protect Americans’ own freedom and prosperity as well as the autonomy of other countries to chart their own futures free of another’s domination.

​

18. China’s surprising drone sales in the Middle East

Defense News · by Bradley Bowman, Jared Thompson, and Ryan Brobst · April 23, 2021

 

19.  FDD | Why the Russia-China Alignment Is So Worrisome

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · April 23, 2021

 

----------------

 

"That priceless galaxy of misinformation called the mind."

- Djuna Barnes

 

"The lowest form of popular culture—lack of information, misinformation, disinformation, and a contempt for the truth or the reality of most people's lives—has overrun real journalism. Today, ordinary Americans are being stuffed with garbage."

-Carl Bernstein

 

"Beware a majority when mentally poisoned with misinformation, for collective ignorance does not become wisdom."

-William J.H. Boetchker

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US adjusts internal disagreements on North Korea policy

2. Korea's dilemma deepens over joining US-led Quad network

3. Pyongyang- Beijing border looks set to reopen

4. Pope expresses willingness to visit N. Korea

5. N. Korea tightens antivirus efforts amid increasing activities in spring season

6.  Sordid End to Trump and Moon's Publicity Stunts

7. North Korea is currently recruiting laborers to send to construction sites abroad

8. Samsung, Hyundai prepare massive US investments ahead of Moon-Biden summit

9. No breakthrough for inter-Korean ties on 3rd anniversary of Panmunjeom declaration

10. 'Vaccine swap' tops poll about Moon-Biden meeting

11. Moon decries int'l hoarding of vaccines

12. Unification minister calls for inter-Korean cooperation in forestry sector

13. Korea, China not in talks over Quad alliance: Defense Ministry

14. N. Korea technically equipped to hold video summit with S. Korea: official

15. Illegal fishing from Chinese boats rises threefold this month (Korea)

 

1. US adjusts internal disagreements on North Korea policy

The Korea Times · April 26, 2021

Moderates versus hardliners?

Excerpts: “The U.S. president was expected to complete the review as early as this month, given that the White House released its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance for this year in March. But Jalina Porter, the U.S. State Department's principal deputy spokeswoman, said Friday (local time), that there was no specific timeline for the review.

...

"While hard-liners say that Washington should raise pressure on North Korea by increasing sanctions, those who favor moderate strategies say that they should negotiate with Pyongyang first while freezing sanctions at the current level," Cha said.

...

"From the perspective of the South Korean government, the most controversial problem is the U.S. pressure and siege strategy against China, with Washington unfolding a very big umbrella of partnering with countries in the region," Hong said.

"For the South Korean government, the situation would be difficult if Washington deals with democracy and human rights issues in China and North Korea at the same time, as this would strengthen ties between the socialist countries."

Hong said if North Korea resumes military provocations in such a situation, there will be little room left for South Korea's diplomacy.

"Seoul should make diplomatic efforts to deliver a message that Washington should deal with the issues of China and North Korea separately," he said.

Meanwhile, a summit between President Moon Jae-in and Biden is slated for late next month.

 

2. Korea's dilemma deepens over joining US-led Quad network

The Korea Times  · Jung Da-min · April 25, 2021

Pressuring Seoul to join the Quad will be counterproductive. Seoul must join the Quad because it has determined it is in its best interest to do so.

Excerpt: “Despite the presidential office's denial, diplomatic observers say that Seoul has been under growing pressure from the U.S. to join the Quad. But they also say that the South Korean government should take a flexible stance on the matter, because joining the Quad network could become a thorny diplomatic issue between Seoul and Beijing. The Korean government has been reluctant to join the Quad due to China being Seoul's largest-trading partner.

 

3. Pyongyang- Beijing border looks set to reopen

donga.com· April 26, 2021

Will this be enough to relieve suffering substantially?

 

4. Pope expresses willingness to visit N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 26, 2021

There is no doubt we need a miracle on the Korean peninsula.

I do worry such a visit would be exploited by the north to counter the allegations of human rights abuses in the north.

 

5. N. Korea tightens antivirus efforts amid increasing activities in spring season

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 26, 2021

Still reporting no COVID cases.

 

6.  Sordid End to Trump and Moon's Publicity Stunts

english.chosun.com

Perhaps clickbait headline but it is a scathing critique: “But they were busy chasing photo ops rather than focusing on the North's denuclearization. Cheong Wa Dae knowingly exaggerated Kim's willingness to scrap his nuclear weapons and used that distorted information to lure Trump into yet another summit in Hanoi, and at the same time it lied to Kim that the U.S. would make massive concessions on international sanctions. When the two leaders realized that they had both been sold a dud, the summit collapsed and all communication was severed.

But along the way, the vital U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises became a sacrificial lamb, and they did not resume even after North Korea made it clear it had absolutely no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons and wanted nothing more to do with Trump or Moon.

The new U.S. President Joe Biden has already said that Trump's meetings with Kim were just for TV, and the White House said Biden has no plans to meet Kim. That prompted Moon to accuse Biden of making a mistake and urge him to "build on" what Trump "has left." The Moon administration still for some reason thinks that another photo op with North Korea can miraculously be brought about and will magically save its sinking ship. This just shows how removed from reality it has become.”

 

7. North Korea is currently recruiting laborers to send to construction sites abroad

dailynk.com · April 26, 2021

I believe this would be a violation of the UN Security Council Resolution prohibiting overseas slave labor. We should proactively and preemptively engage target countries for these workers and remind them of their responsibility under the UNSCR and request they not provide visas for these workers. Of course Qatar would probably be the only one. I doubt we will have much success with China, Russia, and Iran but they should be called out for violating UNSCRs.

 

8. Samsung, Hyundai prepare massive US investments ahead of Moon-Biden summit

The Korea Times · April 26, 2021

 

9. No breakthrough for inter-Korean ties on 3rd anniversary of Panmunjeom declaration

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · April 26, 2021

One truism about Korea - there will be no "breakthrough" (as long as Kim Jong-un is in power).

 

10. 'Vaccine swap' tops poll about Moon-Biden meeting

Koreanjoongangdaily.com · by Park Eun-Jee · April 26, 2021

I doubt this will be an agenda item. It would be a waste for President Moon to make this a top agenda item.

 

11. Moon decries int'l hoarding of vaccines

Koreanjoongangdaily.com · by Sarah Kim and Park Hyung-Ju · April 26, 2021

Not helpful.  

Excerpts: “Addressing the issue of tight coronavirus vaccine supplies, Moon continued, “We must face the reality of such cold international politics.”

 The remarks appeared to be an explanation for Korea's delays in getting vaccine supplies.

While Moon did not specifically mention Washington by name, the United States is responsible for restrictions on vaccine exports as it hastens its own inoculation program. 

 In contrast, Moon praised Beijing for its donations of Covid-19 vaccines in a video message for China's Boao Forum for Asia on April 20.”

 

12. Unification minister calls for inter-Korean cooperation in forestry sector

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 26, 2021

The Minister is reaching for any initiative. He is desperate for any kind of engagement.

 

13. Korea, China not in talks over Quad alliance: Defense Ministry

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · April 26, 2021

Nor should they be. The PRC should not get a vote in ROK foriegn policy, national security, and defense policy

 

14. N. Korea technically equipped to hold video summit with S. Korea: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 26, 2021

Capability yes. Intent to engage? Probably not.

 

15. Illegal fishing from Chinese boats rises threefold this month (Korea)

Koreanjoongangdaily.com · by Park Hyun-Ju and Michael Lee · April 26, 2021

More examples of Chinese malign activities.

 

----------------

 

"That priceless galaxy of misinformation called the mind."

- Djuna Barnes

 

"The lowest form of popular culture—lack of information, misinformation, disinformation, and a contempt for the truth or the reality of most people's lives—has overrun real journalism. Today, ordinary Americans are being stuffed with garbage."

-Carl Bernstein

 

"Beware a majority when mentally poisoned with misinformation, for collective ignorance does not become wisdom."

-William J.H. Boetchker

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Minutes before Trump left office, millions of the Pentagon’s dormant IP addresses sprang to life

2. The big Pentagon internet mystery now partially solved

3. Opinion | We Got Afghanistan Wrong, but There’s Still Time to Learn Something

4. Malcolm Gladwell on the Hard Decisions of War (Book review by Tom Ricks)

5. Is Indonesia ready to tackle the growing challenge of female militants?

6. Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses

7. Opinion: CIA Agents in Thailand, Please Raise Your Hand

8. MI6 begins 'green spying' on big polluting countries

9. Chris Maier Nominated for ASD SO/LIC | SOF News

10. Why is Germany sending a frigate through the South China Sea? 

11. Trump Blazed a Trail That Clears the Way for Biden

12. Kennan’s Containment Strategy: A Consensus on What Not to Do by Robert D. Kaplan

13. Some Right-Wing Troops Find Themselves Targeted by Their Own War Machine

14. Target Taiwan: Why China Is Desperate for Control of Taipei

15. As a military spouse, I suffered real and often debilitating secondary traumatic stress

16. Opinion | The Two Crises of Conservatism

17. America Never Wanted the Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses

18. Billion-Dollar Army Housing Project Begins Next Week at Five Bases

19. Tribes Want Medals Awarded for Wounded Knee Massacre Rescinded

20. A hybrid future may seem like the best of both worlds for work and life

21. The girl in the Kent State photo and the lifelong burden of being a national symbol

 

1. Minutes before Trump left office, millions of the Pentagon’s dormant IP addresses sprang to life

The Washington Post · April 24, 2021

Seems interesting but I am not smart enough to understand the implications and the pros and cons of this, or whether there is something nefarious here or if this is important for national security and defense.

Is this just a clickbait headline?

Excerpts: “Russell Goemaere, a spokesman for the Defense Department, confirmed in a statement to The Washington Post that the Pentagon still owns all the IP address space and hadn’t sold any of it to a private party.

Dormant IP addresses can be hijacked and used for nefarious purposes, from disseminating spam to hacking into a computer system and downloading data, and the pilot program could allow the Defense Department to uncover if those activities are taking place using its addresses.

A person familiar with the pilot effort, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity because the program isn’t public, said it is important for the Defense Department to have “visibility and transparency” into its various cyber resources, including IP addresses, and manage the addresses properly so they will be available if and when the Pentagon wants to use them.

 

2. The big Pentagon internet mystery now partially solved

AP · by Frank Bajak

And I thought Al Gore created the Internet.

Excerpt: "Despite an internet address crunch, the Pentagon — which created the internet — has shown no interest in selling any of its address space, and a Defense Department spokesman, Russell Goemaere, told the AP on Saturday that none of the newly announced space has been sold.

 

3. Opinion | We Got Afghanistan Wrong, but There’s Still Time to Learn Something

Politico · by Jason Dempsey · April 25, 2021

We should have ended the mission with the punitive expedition and then turned it over to the new Afghan political leaders. And the pottery barn rule was misapplied.

Second, since we stayed on for the subsequent missing we should have followed this "principle:" "Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it. Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if it is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities." 

Excerpts: “It will be painful to watch the devolution of the Afghan military, but the idea that this military is not already fractured is an illusion.

The loyalties of Afghan military officers have never neatly mapped onto the chain of command structure that we copy-and-pasted from our own military doctrine, but lie with either the politicians who got them their jobs or the tribes and ethnic groups that have sustained them through nearly forty years of fighting. As Ryan Evans and others have been suggesting since at least 2012, the fragmentation of the ANSF has never been a question of if, but when and, more important for our interests — how. So instead of ignoring these organic power structures in the hope that they will naturally go away, we must use the limited time we have left to back away and give them space to surface, identify those most aligned with our interests and provide them the support that fits their needs, not our ideals.

The American military feels naked without our watches, but with the Taliban we have seen what a force can do without them. As we withdraw we should trust and support our Afghan counterparts to do the same.

 

4. Malcolm Gladwell on the Hard Decisions of War (Book review by Tom Ricks)

 

The New York Times · by Thomas E. Ricks · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “A novelty of this book is that Gladwell says it began as an audiobook and then became a written one, reversing the usual process. It is indeed a conversational work, almost garrulous at times, as when he reports that one psychologist “has a heartbreaking riff about what one member of a couple will often say when the other one dies — that some part of him or her has died along with the partner.” However, this chatty style also glides over some important historical questions.

Gladwell is a wonderful storyteller. When he is introducing characters and showing them in conflict, “The Bomber Mafia” is gripping. I enjoyed this short book thoroughly, and would have been happy if it had been twice as long. But when Gladwell leaps to provide superlative assessments, or draws broad lessons of history from isolated incidents, he makes me wary. Those large conclusions seemed unsubstantiated to me. Was Henry Stimson, Franklin Roosevelt’s secretary of war, truly “responsible, more than anyone, for the extraordinary war machine that the United States built in the early years of the Second World War”? It certainly is arguable that others, like Gen. George C. Marshall, were just as important, but Gladwell simply tosses out the claim about Stimson and hurries on. Another example: Gladwell calls the firebombing of Tokyo on March 9 and 10, 1945, “the longest night of the war.” This unfortunate phrase, this unproven superlative, is repeated in the book’s unwieldy subtitle. I immediately thought, Oh yeah? What about the sailor whose ship is torpedoed and who hangs from debris in the water with no chance of rescue? Or the soldier in a minefield whose buddy is bleeding to death? What of the infinitely long nights of millions of concentration camp prisoners?

 

5. Is Indonesia ready to tackle the growing challenge of female militants?

aseantoday.com · April 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Some analysts say that the fact that women’s perspectives are missing from Indonesia’s counterterrorism approach indicates a major policy failure. “At the BNPT, for example, there are no women at the [decision-making] level, so it is difficult to have a woman’s perspectives,” Dwi Rubiyanti Kholifa, director of the Asian Muslim Action Network (AMAN), told BenarNews.

Officials working at the BNPT “don’t have a gender perspective in their analysis,” she added.

Male experts working at the BNPT don’t seem to understand that “some women carry out a terrorist attack for penance, some for recognition, some for a sense of empowerment, while some were driven by gender injustice and inequality,” Dwi said.

“Women are increasingly important [for militant groups] because of the absence of men who have been arrested or have died,” Wawan Hari Purwanto, a deputy at Indonesia’s State Intelligence Agency (BIN) said.

 

6. Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses

Daily Mail · by Ian Birrell · April 24, 2021

Smoking gun or sensational reporting?

 

7. Opinion: CIA Agents in Thailand, Please Raise Your Hand

khaosodenglish.com · April 24, 2021

I wish we were good enough and smart enough to have an intelligence asset (if not an intelligence officer spotting , assessing, and recruiting intelligence assets) in a country for 35 years.

 

8. MI6 begins 'green spying' on big polluting countries

The Telegraph · by Jack Hardy

Excerpts: “He indicated that British spies will make China the focus of much of their climate-related espionage by pointing out that Beijing is “certainly the largest emitter” of carbon.

“Our job is to shine a light in places where people might not want it shone and so clearly we are going to support what is the foremost international foreign policy agenda item for this country and for the planet, which is around the climate emergency, and of course we have a role in that space,” he told Times Radio.

“Where people sign up to commitments on climate change, it is perhaps our job to make sure that what they are really doing reflects what they have signed up to.”

 

9. Chris Maier Nominated for ASD SO/LIC | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 24, 2021

I do not know him. He seems to have a strong CT background. Will he embrace the two SOF trinities?

SOF Trinities: 

1. Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, Support to Political Warfare

2. Comparative advantage of SOF: Influence, Governance, Support to Indigenous Forces and Populations 

(while maintaining exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions)

 

10. Why is Germany sending a frigate through the South China Sea? 

SCMP  · by Arnaud Boehmann · April 20, 2021

Really? "But Berlin is not trying to intimidate Beijing. Its real message is for Germany’s regional allies – Japan, Australia and the US "

 

11. Trump Blazed a Trail That Clears the Way for Biden

Bloomberg · by Noah Smith · April 20, 2021

Excerpts: “Trump’s break with orthodoxy wasn’t complete, of course. In many ways he governed as a typical Republican, cutting taxes and regulation and increasing work requirements for welfare programs. But on trade and industrial policy, he blazed a trail by neutering his own party’s opposition to change. On these topics, a fair number of conservative think tanks and politicians are joining the bandwagon.

Perhaps that’s how big policy changes ultimately happen. Carter won’t go down in history as the great champion of deregulation, nor Hoover of big government. And if Biden ultimately succeeds in reorienting American economic policy away from free trade in a systematic and effective manner, he’ll likely be the one who gets associated with that shift by future generations. But it was Trump’s stumbling, erratic approach that paved the way.

 

12. Kennan’s Containment Strategy: A Consensus on What Not to Do

The National Interest · by Robert D. Kaplan · April 24, 2021

A very long read.  

A depressing conclusion for all of us who hope for a US grand strategy. But we must grasp this: "an implicit understanding of what the American people can tolerate and what they can afford.""

Conclusion: "GIVEN ALL of this, the possibilities of creating unity around a grand strategy tied to American national interests are rather small. Kennan’s clubby world is gone forever. However, there does exist a substantial community of defense and security experts oriented around the Pentagon, that still use “we” instead of “they” when referring to Americans. This defense community is sufficiently homogeneous in its goals and values, despite the many differences of opinion within it, because there is an overriding assumption in this community that U.S. interests should be primary and that America faces a variety of new and old threats that must be countered. In Kennan’s day, the primary threat was the Soviet Union and world communism. In this new era, the primary threat is China and its particular brand of authoritarianism, mixed as it is with high-technology surveillance and economic and military aggression. China has gone from a post-Mao enlightened authoritarianism which the American business, policy, and media establishments tolerated and were somewhat comfortable with, to becoming a sharp-edged dictatorship under one man, Xi Jinping, armed with a cult of personality. The dream of gradually luring China into a post-Cold War, made-in-America system of globalization is over. This new China represents a stark and unambiguous threat. Like Kennan’s Long Telegram and X article, a successful grand strategy towards China should describe the root of the problem, the sources of Chinese regime behavior, and lay out a plan emphasizing what not to do. Concentrating on what not to do will eliminate extreme viewpoints, and identify practical constraints on our China policy: constraints originating, as with Kennan’s containment theory, with an implicit understanding of what the American people can tolerate and what they can afford."

 

13.  Some Right-Wing Troops Find Themselves Targeted by Their Own War Machine

The Intercept · by Mike Giglio · April 25, 2021

We have to get this counter-extremism in the military right otherwise we risk playing right into the extremists' narratives and radicalizing even greater numbers than the very small number that already exists and harming, perhaps irrepairably, the good order and discipline of the military.

 

14.  Target Taiwan: Why China Is Desperate for Control of Taipei

The National Interest · by Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang · April 24, 2021

Conclusion: “Indeed, the defense of Taiwan is more than symbolic for the United States and its overall commitment to Asia. Retreating from this commitment will not only mean irreversible damage to U.S. credibility, but it will also validate Beijing’s belief of an America in decline, and that the United States is on its own way to a “century of humiliation.”

 

15.  As a military spouse, I suffered real and often debilitating secondary traumatic stress

Stars and Stripes

Consider this.

 

16. Opinion | The Two Crises of Conservatism

The New York Times · by Ross Douthat · April 24, 2021

Excerpts: “But that might not be enough. In the end, conservatives need to believe the things they love can flourish within the liberal order, and it isn’t irrational to turn reactionary if things you thought you were conserving fall away.

So the question for the right isn’t one of commitment, but capacity. Can conservative energies be turned away from fratricide and lib-baiting and used to rebuild the structures and institutions and habits whose decline has pushed the right toward crisis? And will liberal institutions, in their increasingly ideological form, allow or encourage that to happen, or stand permanently in its way?

In prior columns I’ve stressed how the weakness of conservatism makes it hard to imagine a successful right-wing insurrection or coup against the liberal order.

But weakness has rippling consequences too, and a conservatism defined by despair and disillusionment could remain central to liberalism’s crises for many years to come.

 

17.  America Never Wanted the Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses

The Atlantic · by Caitlin Dickerson · April 5, 2021

A short history of US immigration that most do not want to think about.

Excerpts: “In describing its own immigration plan as a racial-equity initiative, the Biden administration is nodding at a more complex view of our history. But opposition to the proposal, predictably, has echoed the past. Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas called it “a disaster” that “does nothing to secure our borders, yet grants mass amnesty, welfare benefits … to over 11 million people.” On Fox News, Laura Ingraham said that Democrats pushing for the plan were “enticing illegals to bust through our borders, exploit our resources, and commit crimes.”

Once you begin to notice examples of how the past is still present, they become difficult to ignore. Trump enacted the most stringent border closure of his administration by citing the threat of disease, even though COVID‑19 outbreaks were far worse inside the United States than just outside its borders (in fact, Americans were actively deporting the virus abroad). His persistent blaming of the Chinese for outbreaks in the U.S. helped incite violence against Asian Americans that continues today, mirroring similar attacks from centuries past.

In moving toward the more inclusive system that some elected officials now say they want, the country would be not returning to traditional American values, but establishing new ones.

 

18. Billion-Dollar Army Housing Project Begins Next Week at Five Bases

military.com · by Rose L. Thayer · April 24, 2021

 

19. Tribes Want Medals Awarded for Wounded Knee Massacre Rescinded

The New York Times · by Mark Walker · April 23, 2021

 

20. A hybrid future may seem like the best of both worlds for work and life

Axios · by Bryan Walsh

Consider the future of work post pandemic.

 

21. The girl in the Kent State photo and the lifelong burden of being a national symbol

The Washington Post · by Patricia McCormick · April 19, 2021

A story behind the story that I did not know. I was around the same age as she was and I had no idea of her age from the photo. I wonder why the author did not mention Neil Young's song "Ohio" (with the line "four dead in Ohio"). I remember being taught the song by the college camp counselors at wrestling camp a year or two later. I wonder how she feels every time she hears that song today.

 

----------------

 

"The speed of communications is wondrous to behold. It is also true that speed can multiply the distribution of information that we know to be untrue."

- Edward R. Murrow

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey

 

"While information is the oxygen of the modern age, disinformation is the carbon monoxide that can poison generations."

- Newton Lee

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Scholte’s concern with punishment against activists distributing leaflets to N. Korea

2. No response to Trump slamming Moon: Cheong Wa Dae

3. What does Korea’s new deal with Pfizer mean for future of AstraZeneca vaccine here?

4. Washington holds key to Seoul’s vaccine supply issue

5. Bookstore chain pulls memoirs of N.K. founder over controversy

6. Jailed Samsung chief’s effort to secure 20m more Pfizer vaccinations in spotlight

7. Korean chipmakers facing a big problem called China

8. Moon’s lucky bewilderment

9.  Every Olympic venue built in north Korea will likely be built with slave labor.

10. The Silencing of North Korean Defector and Author Lee Ju-seong For His Book about North Korean Forces Deployment to South Korea

11. More Koreans immigrated to foreign countries under Moon than Park - OKN

12. U.S. Government Seizes Oil Tanker Used To Violate U.S. And U.N. Sanctions Against North Korea

 

1. Scholte’s concern with punishment against activists distributing leaflets to N. Korea

donga.com · April 24, 2021

Excerpts: “During a phone interview with the Dong-A Ilbo on Thursday (local time), Chair of North Korea Freedom Coalition and the host of the event Suzanne Scholte said she is very excited . “We expect human rights in North Korea and conditions for activities to protect human rights in the country to improve under the Biden administration. We will search more actively for ways to help North Korean residents.

“I am concerned about my friends and the members of human rights groups who distributed leaflets to North Korea,” said Scholte on potential punishment against them in accordance with the law banning the distribution of propaganda leaflets to North Korea. “The South Korean government belatedly released guidelines with an exception for activities in third countries, but what third countries are they talking about?” she said, adding that China and Russia are too dangerous to engage in human rights activities. “President Moon Jae-in is responsible for creating this situation.”

 

2. No response to Trump slamming Moon: Cheong Wa Dae

The Korea Times · April 25, 2021

Nor should they. The terrible and idiotic words should not be dignified with a response.

 

3. What does Korea’s new deal with Pfizer mean for future of AstraZeneca vaccine here?

koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · April 25, 2021

 

4. Washington holds key to Seoul’s vaccine supply issue

donga.com · April 24, 2021

Excerpt: "All things considered, it is Washington that holds the key to the vaccine supply issue as it can enable stable access to vaccines as one of the world’s major fabricators and distributors. Amid the ever-growing risks of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Quad plays a bigger role as a consultative body in the vaccine supply market. Indeed, the United States leads vaccine development while Japan and Australia provides it with financial support. India chips in to mass-produce jabs. If Seoul continues to walk on eggshells between Washington and Beijing in the diplomatic arena, it is likely to be ostracized from the vaccine alliance and suffer from chronic shortages. Being cornered during negotiations on a vaccine swap agreement, the government, in expectation of businesses’ role to play, abruptly refers to semiconductors and vehicle batteries as a condition for swapping. However, it should be noted that it is the government that is to blame for poor vaccine supply. Seoul is supposed to use every tool at its disposal to produce tangible outcomes in the forthcoming R.O.K-U.S. summit talk next month."

 

5. Bookstore chain pulls memoirs of N.K. founder over controversy

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: "Considering a Supreme Court ruling that found that readers who purchase books violating the National Security Act can also be punished, we decided not to receive new orders to protect customers," a company official said.

The official, who explained that the decision was focused on protecting the customers rather than being affected by the political controversy, said the company will decide on resuming sales after decisions are made by the court or a national publication agency.

The bookseller on Thursday removed three volumes of the series from its bookstores in central and southern Seoul, as well as its logistics center, and returned them to a publishers' association that is responsible for its distribution.

 

6. Jailed Samsung chief’s effort to secure 20m more Pfizer vaccinations in spotlight

koreaherald.com · by Song Su-hyun · April 25, 2021

The power and importance of Samsung.

 

7. Korean chipmakers facing a big problem called China

Koreajoongangdaily.com · by Park Eun-Jee · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “The Departments of State and Commerce should work with the governments of the Netherlands and Japan to align the export licensing processes of all three countries regarding high-end semiconductor manufacturing equipment, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and argon fluoride immersion lithography equipment, toward a policy of presumptive denial of licenses for exports of such equipment to China,” read the report released last month. 

The proposal is a step beyond existing sanctions that limit exports of EUV equipment, exclusively supplied by ASML of the Netherlands, to Chinese chipmakers.

If the government adds argon fluoride (ArF) immersion lithography equipment to the banned list, the move could affect the manufacturing of memory chips in China.

“The mainstream DRAM and NAND flash memory products are made based on the ArF technique,” said a source at a local memory chip maker. 

“If the U.S. government extends the export restriction to include ArF immersion lithography, it is virtually impossible for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to expand memory chip production in China because they can’t bring in the equipment critical for the manufacturing,” he said. 

Samsung Electronics may not prioritize expansion in China since NAND flash memory is not currently in short supply.  

The company has enough land in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, where its P3 plant is already under construction, to build three more plants.  

 

8. Moon’s lucky bewilderment

Koreajoongangdaily.com · by Lee Hyun-sang · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “What the court’s ruling signifies is clear: in addressing international disputes, you must place reason over emotion and diplomacy over rage. The bench said it had to respect conventional law and Supreme Court precedents although it cannot deny the victims’ rights to claim compensation. Emotions and laws are different. A dichotomy between “you the evil” and “we the good” may work in domestic politics, but not in international relations or courts of justice. The Moon administration’s naïve hope that the world would revolve around us only led it to isolation from the rest of the world.

After the new ruling, progressives in Korea boisterously attacked the bench for being “pro-Japanese” — the expression of which has now escalated to “localized pro-Japanese forces.” The new phrase explicitly reflects a sad legacy of a once-colonized country. Any calls to untie the Gordian knot between the two neighbors with reason and sanity helplessly give way to the convenient branding of someone as a member of “localized pro-Japanese groups.” The powerful stigmatization of the liberals as “commies” lost its power long ago, but the witchcraft of labelling opponents “localized pro-Japanese forces” still works.

The 2015 Park-Abe deal on former sex slaves had its limits from the outset. But you cannot deny that the Japanese government used its own budget to establish a foundation to accept some level of responsibility for operating military brothels during WWII. Tokyo must be blamed for claiming that the money was not meant for “compensation” after the agreement. But the Moon administration also should be condemned for nonchalantly sitting on its hands over the past three years after deciding to dismantle the foundation. Only 15 registered victims remain alive.

It is uncertain what final ruling the Supreme Court will deliver. But certainly, Moon would not want to be remembered as a head of state who pushed bilateral relations to a point of no return. I hope the latest court ruling helps the two countries find a graceful exit from the diplomatic deadlock before it’s too late. Who knows whether the goddess of wisdom may smile at them at long last? “The owl of Minerva,” wrote Hegel, “spreads its wings only with the falling of the dusk.”

 

9. Every Olympic venue built in north Korea will likely be built with slave labor.

38north.org · by Timothy S. Rich · April 23, 2021

And yes, keep in mind this concluding section. Every Olympic venue built in north Korea will likely be built with slave labor.

Don’t Forget Human Rights

Lastly, there has been discussion of the United States and other countries boycotting the 2022 Beijing Olympics due to human rights matters in China. South Korea should remain aware that if a joint bid is accepted, concerns dealing with human rights issues in North Korea will probably surge and could potentially depress participation. The IOC says it does not want the Olympics to become political, but international politics have frequently influenced the decision to participate in the past. If the IOC wishes to avoid controversies regarding human rights issues in host countries, as reflected in apprehensions about the 2022 Winter Olympics, North Korea’s human rights abuses will likely put the joint bid out of the running.

 

10. The Silencing of North Korean Defector and Author Lee Ju-seong For His Book about North Korean Forces Deployment to South Korea

East Asia Research · April 23, 2021

This Is one of the real problems with South Korean domestic politics. There is a lot to unpack from this essay.

 

11. More Koreans immigrated to foreign countries under Moon than Park - OKN

onekoreanetwork.com · April 24, 2021

Voting with their feet?

 

12. U.S. Government Seizes Oil Tanker Used To Violate U.S. And U.N. Sanctions Against North Korea

justice.gov · April 23, 2021

Another "small victory." We need more.

 

---------------

 

"The speed of communications is wondrous to behold. It is also true that speed can multiply the distribution of information that we know to be untrue."

- Edward R. Murrow

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey

 

"While information is the oxygen of the modern age, disinformation is the carbon monoxide that can poison generations."

- Newton Lee

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. U.S. Concerns About Taiwan Put Focus on Island’s Defensive Weakness

2. FDD | OPCW Member States Hold Syria Accountable for Chemical Weapons Use

3. The Bloated Pentagon Budget Isn’t Just Wasteful. It’s Racist

4. The unconventional war between Israel and Iran

5.  China, neighbors weigh options, hedge bets as Biden prepares Afghanistan exit

6. Ransomware Targeted by New Justice Department Task Force

7. U.S. Senate passes 'Hate Crimes Act' in overwhelming vote

8. The US military is turning to special operators to fend off Russian and Chinese influence in its neighborhood

9. Follow-Up Comments: War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

10. Book Review: Irregular Soldiers and Rebellious States: Small Scale U.S. Interventions Abroad

11. Afghan military will collapse without some US help, says top general in the Middle East

12. Biden Looks to Progressive for Key Human Rights Post

13.  How Q’s 'Lost Drops' Undermine the QAnon Myth

14. STRATCOM boss clarifies comments on ‘zero’ extremism in his organization

15. AFP chief pushes Pinoy structures in West PH Sea

16. In Afghanistan, a Dangerous Surrender in a Misconceived War by Bing West

17. Virginia moving to eliminate all accelerated math courses before 11th grade as part of equity-focused plan

18. China Eyes More Bases in Africa, US Military Official Says

19. JSOU Report on Battle for Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan - 2001 | SOF News

20. Key GOP senators say they’re open to corporate tax increase

21. Sen. Coons sees new era of bipartisanship on China

22. Defending democracies from disinformation and cyber-enabled foreign interference

23. Navy SEAL community loses another legend: Bob “The Eagle” Gallagher

24. End the ‘Forever War’ Cliché

 

1. U.S. Concerns About Taiwan Put Focus on Island’s Defensive Weakness

WSJ · by Alastair Gale

Taiwan needs a strong conventional deterrence and defense capability. But it also needs asymmetric defense capability that can provide unconventional deterrence through resistance and resilience programs.

 

2. FDD | OPCW Member States Hold Syria Accountable for Chemical Weapons Use

fdd.org · by Anthony Ruggiero Senior Fellow · April 22, 2021

Excerpts: “At the next OPCW EC meeting in July, the Biden administration should lead an effort to adopt a decision demanding that Russia comply with its CWC obligations within 90 days, modeled on the July 2020 EC resolution on Syria. Seventeen current EC member states were among the 59 who condemned Russia on Tuesday, a robust start toward gathering the 28 votes needed for an EC decision.

While some states may regard such an EC decision as hasty, Russia also used Novichok in 2018 in the United Kingdom, inadvertently killing a mother of three instead of the Russian defector targeted for assassination. President Vladimir Putin evidently has yet to receive the message that it is unacceptable to use chemical weapons.

In the lead-up to the July OPCW meeting, Washington should also issue additional targeted sanctions on Russia and Syria and support the prosecution of officials who have committed atrocities.

The OPCW decision marks an important first step toward restoring the global norm of zero chemical weapons use. The fight will continue in the OPCW and elsewhere. The Biden administration must prioritize efforts to hold violators accountable.

 

3. The Bloated Pentagon Budget Isn’t Just Wasteful. It’s Racist

defenseone.com · by Diana Ohlbaum

Wow. I think we are really getting out of hand here. To follow the author's logic I guess there is nothing that is not racist.

 

4. The unconventional war between Israel and Iran

english.ahram.org.eg

Excerpts: “The unconventional methods that Israel has been using against Iran have included cyber-attacks, assassinations and psychological warfare. Other methods, such as the use of proxy wars, the sabotage of commercial shipping and diplomatic actions, are less effective since they also rely on other parties that may not be fully on board.

Israel’s tactics in this unconventional war have been attributed to Meir Dagan, the tenth director of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad between 2002 and 2010. In 2004, Dagan and deputy Tamir Pardo held a meeting attended by the other Israeli security agencies Shabak and Aman to discuss how to halt the Iranian nuclear programme.

The view was that if Iran truly wanted to manufacture nuclear weapons, it would eventually succeed. “What can we do [to change this],” Dagan asked.

 

5. China, neighbors weigh options, hedge bets as Biden prepares Afghanistan exit

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Excerpts: “Frederick W. Kagan, who heads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, said, “There are some fundamental disconnects in the way President Biden and his team are talking about the region and the way the region actually is now.”

“There is more than a trace in the language of their presentation that Afghanistan’s neighbors all have an interest in preventing a Taliban takeover and that terrorists don’t use Afghanistan as a safe haven,” Mr. Kagan said. “I really have a problem with conducting strategy or foreign policy in the subjunctive.”

...

“There’s an irony here that on the one hand Iran, Russia and China, they would be very happy to see U.S. forces leave, just because they don’t want that U.S. influence in their backyard,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Wilson Center, said in a conference call with reporters last week. “However, at the same time, these countries do have an interest in a more stable Afghanistan.

“I think that these rivals of the U.S. are of two minds,” he said. “On the one hand, for strategic reasons, they’d like to see this U.S. footprint out of there sooner rather than later, but at the same time, I think they recognize that having those foreign forces there does prevent Afghanistan from deteriorating in ways that could impact their interests.”

Others point to major unknowns surrounding the question of how Russia, Pakistan, Iran or China will respond should the U.S. withdrawal trigger a full-blown security meltdown or Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.

“China may actually be a net loser in terms of Taliban ascendancy, although I don’t think a Taliban takeover of Kabul is a foregone conclusion,” Mr. Haqqani said.

He said fears of potential Taliban collusion with Chinese Uyghurs, a Muslim ethnic group facing harsh government persecution inside China, may inspire Beijing to throw its weight behind the current government in Kabul, which is trying to stave off a Taliban takeover.

 

6. Ransomware Targeted by New Justice Department Task Force

WSJ · by Dustin Volz · April 21, 2021

Excerpts: “Mr. Carlin said the task force also will strive to find more “innovative uses of legal authorities…to protect victims before they are victimized.” Last week, the Justice Department revealed that the FBI had entered computer networks still vulnerable from a recent Microsoft Exchange Server attack that researchers have linked to China to remove malicious code. Mr. Carlin said that maneuver was motivated by concerns that criminal groups could hit those networks with ransomware.

Estimates on annual damages of ransomware attacks vary widely, but security companies generally agree the average size of ransoms has ballooned in recent years and that the overall toll on the economy is in the billions of dollars.

Mr. Carlin, who before returning to the Justice Depart focused on cybersecurity as a partner at the Morrison & Foerster law firm, said he has personally seen ransomware payments over $20 million.

“It wasn’t a hard calculation for the company because they could say it would easily be hundreds of millions in damages for them if they didn’t pay,” Mr. Carlin said. “In almost every case where they paid, they knew the amount of damage was 10, 20 times what they were paying.”

 

7. U.S. Senate passes 'Hate Crimes Act' in overwhelming vote

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 23, 2021

94-1. I wonder what is Senator Hawley's rationale? I wonder who were the other 5 senators who do not vote.

 

8. The US military is turning to special operators to fend off Russian and Chinese influence in its neighborhood

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

9. Follow-Up Comments: War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 21, 2021

I received these comments from a long time friend with whom I served in the Army more than 30 years ago. These require some deep reflection.

1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets – “After 20 years of killing one another, in suicide attacks, drone strikes, roadside bomb blasts, night raids and ground offensives, both sides understood the war on almost completely different terms”

 a)  Mirroring – The US practiced this and failed to appreciate the mindset of the Afghans, as a whole, the Pashtuns and, of course, the Taliban themselves.

b) The Taliban didn’t practice mirroring, because they didn’t care about the US mindset. They focused on achieving victory. 

c) The US was focused on nation building and categorized the conflict as an insurgency. The US then approached the problem as an insurgency without determining what it actually took to achieve victory.

d) The Taliban used everything at their disposal to achieve their strategic goals.

e) The US was unwilling to take the necessary steps, regarding Pakistan, and lacked the geopolitical will to defeat the Taliban (neither by force nor by guile).

f) The US has yet to develop a coherent/workable/sustainable strategy.

 

Lessons learned:

 1) Don’t commit military force without an intent and will to win.

2) Invest in more Professional Military Education.

3) Don’t engage in mirroring (either with those we’re supporting or our opponents). They’re not like us. They don’t think like us. They don’t behave like us.

4) Identify the problem correctly and apply the appropriate ways and means to accomplish the mission. 

 Assessment: In the case of Afghanistan, the US played the role of the Turks and Taliban played the role of Lawrence. The fact that most don’t want to see it in those terms should be a sobering wake-up call. It was and is a Pashtun revolt/uprising. We could have won. We should have won. We could still win. It has always been our choice.

Excerpts: “Practically every week, the Taliban delivered these lists of infractions to U.S. diplomats and military officials in Doha, Qatar, who took the complaints — investigating some and dismissing others as inaccurate.

In a way, the spreadsheets’ very existence supported President Biden’s rationale for pulling out completely, even when his generals wanted to stay: A conditions-based withdrawal, as the Pentagon wanted, seemed bound to fail because neither side could agree on whether the other party was even meeting the conditions they had signed on to.

After 20 years of killing one another, in suicide attacks, drone strikes, roadside bomb blasts, night raids and ground offensives, both sides understood the war on almost completely different terms.

 

10. Book Review: Irregular Soldiers and Rebellious States: Small Scale U.S. Interventions Abroad

Small Wars Journal · by Dave Maxwell

 

11. Afghan military will collapse without some US help, says top general in the Middle East

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · April 22, 2021

My thoughts: Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it.   Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities.

I will bet you could read this in the assessments conducted by Special Forces in 2001-2002 (and even beyond). Every SF soldier knows this.

 

12. Biden Looks to Progressive for Key Human Rights Post

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch · April 21, 2021

I wonder who will be appointed the north Korean human rights envoy?

Excerpts: “Writing in Foreign Policy’s “It’s Debatable” column in February, Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote that the long-term U.S. response to the military coup in Myanmar and subsequent violent crackdown on protests would be “a test of which way the administration will tilt: human rights, or great power competition—and a reminder that these two missions are in tension.”

But the Biden team has continued to signal that it can walk and chew gum at the same time. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech last month that the administration would consistently denounce human rights violations at home and abroad, including in allied countries. “The Biden-Harris administration will stand against human rights abuses wherever they occur, regardless of whether the perpetrators are adversaries or partners,” he said.

 

13. How Q’s 'Lost Drops' Undermine the QAnon Myth

bellingcat.com · April 22, 2021

What a weird cult.

 

14.  STRATCOM boss clarifies comments on ‘zero’ extremism in his organization

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 22, 2021

Excerpts: “More than 30 percent of troops who responded to a 2020 Military Times poll reported having witnessed racist or white supremacist ideology while serving, including 57 percent of those who identified as a racial or ethic minority.

Richard is not the only senior leader to confidently estimate the extremist threat within the military. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said he believes that 99.9 percent of troops are serving with honor, despite the department acknowledging that it does not have a good data set to draw on.

“Even though the number’s small, it can have a corrosive, outsized effect, and that’s the point he’s trying to make,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told Military Times on April 9, clarifying that Austin’s statistic is a “colloquialism.”

 

15. AFP chief pushes Pinoy structures in West PH Sea

newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Jeannette I. Andrade · April 23, 2021

Excerpt: “According to the AFP chief, while the military has always challenged intrusions into the country’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, it is also considering other measures aimed at “enhancing our security posture” in the WPS.

But he did not give details, saying the information was not for public consumption.

 

16. In Afghanistan, a Dangerous Surrender in a Misconceived War by Bing West

WSJ · by Bing West

Excerpts: “President Biden set no conditions when he announced that the U.S. was pulling out of Afghanistan. Angry voices are sure to be raised in Congress when the most vicious terrorist groups, such as the Haqqani network, appear in Afghanistan. The White House would be wise to set a red line for Afghanistan, guaranteeing continued operations against terrorists who seek to attack the West.

The U.S. military is a family business. About 80% of service members have a relative who also served. The Afghanistan war spanned an entire generation. What the troops experienced and took away from the era has been communicated from father to son, from aunt to niece. The 1% of American youths who volunteer to serve are heavily influenced by their families. The U.S. can ill afford to further alienate this small warrior class by continuing to venture out into the world with dreams of nation-building. That’s not a proper job for the U.S. military.

 

17. Virginia moving to eliminate all accelerated math courses before 11th grade as part of equity-focused plan

foxnews.com · by Sam Dorman | Fox News

As someone tweeted: are the Chinese and other countries giving up on advanced Math study?

I wonder if this is someone's misguided idea to make all students "equal?" e.g., everyone to the level of the lowest common denominator?

 

18. China Eyes More Bases in Africa, US Military Official Says

voanews.com · by Jeff Seldin

Excerpts: "What they have done in the last two years is completed a very large and capable naval pier that adjoins their base," Townsend said of Chinese expansion at Doraleh. "This pier has a capability to dock their largest ships, to include the Chinese aircraft carrier as well as nuclear submarines."

Now U.S. officials say China is looking to set up a presence farther south along the eastern Africa coast, in Tanzania, and has an even more ambitious plan for Africa’s Atlantic coastline.

"This is the most significant threat from China,” Townsend told members of the Senate Armed Service Committee, saying Beijing wants “something more than a place where they can make port calls and get gas and groceries.”

"I'm talking about a port where they can rearm with munitions and repair naval vessels," he said. "They're working aggressively to get that."

 

19. JSOU Report on Battle for Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan - 2001 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 22, 2021

The 154 page report can be downloaded here: 

 

20.  Key GOP senators say they’re open to corporate tax increase

Axios · by Kadia Goba and Hans Nichols

Is that hell freezing over?

 

21. Sen. Coons sees new era of bipartisanship on China

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

It absolutely must be a bipartisan issue.

 

22. Defending democracies from disinformation and cyber-enabled foreign interference

aspistrategist.org.au · by Danielle Cave · April 22, 2021

The longer report is at this link: 

Excerpts: “There are models for collaboration between states in pushing back against interference. The European Centre of Excellence in Countering Hybrid Threats draws together expertise from across the EU and NATO to facilitate strategic dialogue on responding to hybrid threats, developing best practice, building capacity through training and professional development, and joint exercises. NATO Stratcom is another centre of excellence that combines both strategic and tactical expertise from across the alliance in collective defence against disinformation and information operations.

These models could be replicated through the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US. The alignment of interests among these countries could provide an important vehicle for building structures like those that have been trialled elsewhere and offer resilience against cyber-enabled foreign interference. This should include multi-stakeholder 1.5-track engagement that brings together governments, civil society and industry; mitigates against the splintering of economic and national security interests; and drives greater investment in civil society capacity building around detection, strategic communications and digital diplomacy. Social media networks and search engines must do a better job at deterring and punishing actors that actively spread disinformation on their platforms and should audit what they categorise and promote as ‘news’.

Finally, there is strength in democratic collectives. Governments themselves can take steps to mitigate the risks of cyber-enabled foreign interference, but democracies can increase their power by banding together to attribute, raise costs and deter interference by other states. States targeted individually may be reluctant to escalate grey-zone aggression. However, where there’s a collective response, adversaries are likely to recalibrate their behaviour in the face of collective actions like diplomatic measures and economic sanctions.

 

23. Navy SEAL community loses another legend: Bob “The Eagle” Gallagher

sandboxx.us · by Frumentarius · April 22, 2021

The passing of another American hero.

 

24. End the ‘Forever War’ Cliché

Foreign Policy · by Steven A. Cook · April 22, 2021

Conclusion: "Advocates of ending forever wars have done a valuable service challenging the foreign-policy community on its assumptions. There are limits to American power, and not every problem has an American solution. Yet aiming to end forever wars is too pat, too neat. It does not allow for course corrections or any possibility that the United States has been or can once again be a constructive actor in the Middle East. It may well be that restraint is what is called for in the U.S. approach to the region, but the way that restraint is combining with the “ending forever wars” mantra is too limiting. After trillions of dollars spent, lives lost, people maimed, politics warped, Americans need to be careful in the Middle East, but that does not mean becoming wedded to a nifty slogan. The risks are too great."

 

----------------

 

"Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country."

- Hermann Goring

 

"A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

- Winston Churchill

 

"We all know that in war the political and military factors have to complement each other."

- Nguyen Cao Ky

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korea may produce homegrown COVID-19 vaccine within this year: minister

2. No. of COVID-19 inoculations reaches 2 mln in S. Korea as vaccinations speed up

3. North Korean propaganda spike suggests looming challenge to Biden, U.S.

4. Why Does New President Biden Follows Old Policy on North Korea?

5. North Korea’s Coronavirus Economic Downturn Has Made It Weak

6. North Korea is Working to “Defeat” U.S. Missile Defense: Report

7.  ROK-US Summit: South Korea’s Moon Jae-In Is Coming to Washington

8. North Korea acted with restraint during guard post shooting, Seoul says

9. Seth Rogen says it's not a 'coincidence' that he hasn't directed a movie since 'The Interview' and the subsequent Sony hack

10. JCS chairman to visit Hawaii next week for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

11. U.S. fully ready to deter any aggression from N. Korea: U.S. commander

12. N.K.'s paper calls for post-war 'Chollima' spirit against challenges

13. Defector group plans to send leaflets to N. Korea next week

14. Foreign ministry denies reports linking vaccine cooperation with U.S. to Quad participation

15. OPEN! NORTH KOREA… Open Hearts, Open Minds, and Open Borders

16. Issue of comfort women should have been resolved through diplomacy

17. Why Would the U.S. Want to Help Korea out with Vaccines?

 

1. S. Korea may produce homegrown COVID-19 vaccine within this year: minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · April 22, 2021

 

2. No. of COVID-19 inoculations reaches 2 mln in S. Korea as vaccinations speed up

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · April 22, 2021

 

3. North Korean propaganda spike suggests looming challenge to Biden, U.S.

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

My comments, among others, in the article.

 

4. Why Does New President Biden Follows Old Policy on North Korea?

The National Interest · by Will Goode · April 22, 2021

A rational actor trying to survive? Yes that may be the conventional wisdom of many. But again, and I hate to beat the dead horse, but in Kim Jong-un's calculus, survival can only be ensured by the north dominating the entire Korean peninsula. Yes survival of the regime is the vital national interest but we must also factor in the regime's strategic aim, unification on its terms, which it believes it is necessary to achieve to ensure survival. 

 

5.  North Korea’s Coronavirus Economic Downturn Has Made It Weak

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · April 22, 2021

The question is will the effects be similar to the Arduous March of 1994-1996 and will the regime be able to maintain domestic stability? And yes the current situation is likely to have very long term effects on the people and her regime.

 

6. North Korea is Working to “Defeat” U.S. Missile Defense: Report

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · April 22, 2021

I previously forwarded the link to the referenced CRS report. But here it is again.  

 

7. ROK-US Summit: South Korea’s Moon Jae-In Is Coming to Washington

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · April 22, 2021

That is correct. The PRC is not going to solve the ROK/US alliance's security problem with north Korea.

Keep in mind the author does not like alliances nor US military overseas presence.

Excerpts: “Biden says that he wants to strengthen alliances. The upcoming summit will be a good test as to his definition of “strengthen.” Is it pressing other governments to do as Washington wants or accounting for other nations’ interests, even when doing so conflicts with U.S. preferences?

Moon and Biden are at vastly different points in their respective tenures. Moon is a lame duck, with barely a year left in office. He is desperate to bring his call for detente on the Korean peninsula to fruition and post a significant accomplishment before leaving office. Biden is just starting and is more interested in getting Moon’s support for what Washington views as its most important international issue, dealing with China. Both sides could end up disappointed.

 

8. North Korea acted with restraint during guard post shooting, Seoul says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 22, 2021

This is in response to recent FM comments about an incident that took place last May. Over the past few decades both the nKPA and the ROK military have operated with significant self-restraint. But this should not make us complacent. Miscalculation can occur and we need to be ready for any contingencies resulting from miscalculation.  

 

9. Seth Rogen says it's not a 'coincidence' that he hasn't directed a movie since 'The Interview' and the subsequent Sony hack

insider.com · by Jason Guerrasio

The long term effects of north Korean actions. How many bad movies have been made about north Korea since the Interview and the Sony hack?

 

10. JCS chairman to visit Hawaii next week for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 23, 2021

If left at the military level there would be very good trilateral cooperation.

 

11.  U.S. fully ready to deter any aggression from N. Korea: U.S. commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 23, 2021

Sir Lawrence Freedman: "Deterrence works. Until it doesn't"

 

12. N.K.'s paper calls for post-war 'Chollima' spirit against challenges

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 23, 2021

Ah, the old "Chollima spirit." It has solved all of north Korea's problems in the past.

 

13. Defector group plans to send leaflets to N. Korea next week

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 23, 2021

Escapees.

This may get interesting when we see how the ROK government reacts to this.

As an aside next week will be the 18th annual North Korea Freedom Week. I am honored to participate in a panel with four escapees from north Korea and Nick Eberstadt and Olivia Schieber. You can register all the events next week here: 

 

14. Foreign ministry denies reports linking vaccine cooperation with U.S. to Quad participation

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · April 23, 2021

This is complete BS in my opinion. Neither the ROK nor the US would be making these kinds of demands/offers/exchange. Neither side would try to extort or bribe the other. Both COViD and the Quad are too important to do something this foolish, which would only be exposed leaving both countries would be discredited. We certainly would not want the ROK to join the Quad under duress. That would make no sense. The media is reporting rumors, innuendo, and speculation.

 

15. OPEN! NORTH KOREA… Open Hearts, Open Minds, and Open Borders

NK Freedom

Please Join Us for the 18th Annual North Korea Freedom Week 2021

 

16. Issue of comfort women should have been resolved through diplomacy

donga.com

A troubling statement which I fear may be too accurate: "For recent years, the bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan have been the worst since the normalization."

 

17. Why Would the U.S. Want to Help Korea out with Vaccines?

english.chosun.com

A harsh critique of the Moon administration but I think the Chosun Ilbo editorial board is mistaken to assert that joining the Quad is quid pro quo for receiving vaccines from the US.

 

---------------

 

"Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country."

- Hermann Goring

 

"A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

- Winston Churchill

 

"We all know that in war the political and military factors have to complement each other."

- Nguyen Cao Ky

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

2. Indo-Pacific, DNI deputy nominees named

3. President Biden Announces Key Administration Nominations for National Security

4. Coming soon: An announcement on which Army and Navy units will move to the Space Force

5. Pentagon extremism adviser lays out challenge facing military after two commanders deny a problem exists

6. Chairman Menendez Announces Bipartisan Comprehensive China Legislation

7. Indo-Pacific commander Aquilino confirmed in Senate

8. The Original Sin of the War in Afghanistan

9. Cost of Afghan war exceeds $2.26tn and rising

10. How Cyber Ops Increase the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War

11. $264B for ICBMs That Would Be Destroyed in the Ground? No, Thanks

12. At least 10 Asia Pacific gov'ts use COVID-19 for censorship, disinformation

13. US Nuclear Fears Are Shifting From a Clear Russian Threat to a Murkier Chinese One

14. No Legal Objection, Per Se

15. A Bad Case of Déjà Vu16. 

16. Psychological Warfare: Principles for Global Competition

17.  Jetpacks give Special Forces assets the edge

18. What is China's Belt and Road Initiative and what were the four deals the federal government tore up?

19. China’s Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America by Hal Brands

20. Today’s Generals and Admirals: What Has Happened to our Senior Military Officers?

 

1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 21, 2021

Excerpts: “Practically every week, the Taliban delivered these lists of infractions to U.S. diplomats and military officials in Doha, Qatar, who took the complaints — investigating some and dismissing others as inaccurate.

In a way, the spreadsheets’ very existence supported President Biden’s rationale for pulling out completely, even when his generals wanted to stay: A conditions-based withdrawal, as the Pentagon wanted, seemed bound to fail because neither side could agree on whether the other party was even meeting the conditions they had signed on to.

 

2. Indo-Pacific, DNI deputy nominees named

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · April 21, 2021

 

3. President Biden Announces Key Administration Nominations for National Security

APRIL 21, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

 

4. Coming soon: An announcement on which Army and Navy units will move to the Space Force

c4isrnet.com · by Valerie Insinna · April 21, 2021

Excerpts: “The Space Force is set to grow from about 2,400 active-duty members to about 6,400 people by the end of 2021, Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond said in December. Some of those new guardians are expected to transfer in from the Army and Navy.

In a February interview with Military Times, Raymond said he expected at least 34 soldiers and sailors to transfer into the Space Force this year, with hundreds more joining them in 2022. However, he stressed that troops would not be forced to move to the new service.

“You can’t order somebody to come in the Space Force,” he said. “It’s all voluntary.”

 

5. Pentagon extremism adviser lays out challenge facing military after two commanders deny a problem exists

CNN · by Barbara Starr

Excerpts: “Austin also instructed the services to improve their screening of those entering the military and better train those leaving it. He called for updated and standardized screening questionnaires to detect current or previous extremist activities, while also instructing the services to better train people leaving the military on extremist groups who may seek to recruit them.

At the same time, a new Countering Extremism Working Group will look to see if there is a need to update or amend the Uniform Code of Military Justice, find ways to work better with civilian law enforcement and determine whether algorithms can help better screen social media posts for indicators of extremist ideologies.

But on Wednesday Garrison made clear there is still a long way to go for the military to get a grip on the extremism problem.

"We want the American people to understand and know that we see this behavior as a problem. It goes against our values, as I said, it goes against our oath," he said. "It's important for us to reject extremism in all forms, whether that be what is often referred to as unlawful or unregulated militias, anti-government extremism, as well as extremism-based immutable traits, whether you're talking about race or gender or ethnicity, none of it is acceptable."

 

6. Chairman Menendez Announces Bipartisan Comprehensive China Legislation

foreign.senate.gov

Excerpt: “I am incredibly proud to announce this unprecedented bipartisan effort to mobilize all U.S. strategic, economic, and diplomatic tools for an Indo-Pacific strategy that will allow our nation to truly confront the challenges China poses to our national and economic security. The Strategic Competition Act of 2021 is a recognition that this moment demands a unified, strategic response that can rebuild American leadership, invest in our ability to out-compete China, and reground diplomacy in our core values.

 

7. Indo-Pacific commander Aquilino confirmed in Senate

Defense News · by Joe Gould · April 21, 2021

Excerpt: “Aquilino declined to affirm the assessment China could try to invade Taiwan in as little as six years (which outgoing commander Adm. Phil Davidson has said). However, Aquilino did say, “this problem is much closer to us than most think,” and that requires a proposed Pacific Deterrence Initiative funding pool be realized, “in the near term, and with urgency.”

A report from the command delivered last month calls for roughly $27 billion in additional spending between 2022 and 2027; with $4.6 billion for fiscal year 2022 alone. That includes a multi-billion-dollar air defense capability in Guam.”

 

8. The Original Sin of the War in Afghanistan

defenseone.com · by Jonah Blank

Excerpts: “The original sin of the war in Iraq was going to war in Iraq. And the original sin of the war in Afghanistan was going to war in Iraq.

...

What happens next? The U.S. has a special moral debt to the thousands of Afghans who have risked their lives in service to American military and civilian personnel, and they (like their counterparts in Iraq) should be offered the chance to emigrate if they so choose. But the much larger question is what happens to Afghanistan itself. That will be up to the Afghan people, as it always had to be. The Afghans will have to forge their future under far more difficult circumstances now than they would have if their fledgling civil society had been given, say, a decade to really take root. That breathing space could have been provided by U.S. resources that were instead pulled away for the war in Iraq.

There is a real chance that Afghanistan will return to the bloody anarchy of the 1990s. But there’s also a real chance that it won’t. As Vice President Amrullah Saleh recently noted, a generation of Afghans have grown up without the Taliban as overlords, and they won’t surrender their freedoms easily: “The fate of my country,” he said, “does not lie with the last U.S. military helicopter.” The withdrawal of American troops shouldn’t mean the withdrawal of U.S. support for a regime that, with all its (many) flaws, is the most effective government Afghanistan has had for about half a century (admittedly, a rather low bar), and the most representative it has had in its history.

 

9. Cost of Afghan war exceeds $2.26tn and rising

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 21, 2021

 

10. How Cyber Ops Increase the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War

defenseone.com · by George Perkovich and Ariel Levite

Excerpts: “To better inform themselves, both leaderships should mandate that independent “red teams” assess the risks of sensitive cyber operations. It’s too dangerous to let the proposers or conductors of such operations review themselves. Red teaming must consider the possibility and consequences that cyber weapons may spread more than intended and could be reverse engineered for use against one’s own government, businesses, or friends.

China and the United States don’t need to wait for one another to take these steps. Doing this unilaterally, and quickly, will lower the likelihood of an accidental nuclear war that could destroy them both. Ideally, both leaderships – as representatives of great powers – will overcome their political inhibitions and agree to have adult conversations about what more they can do. The longer they wait, the greater the responsibility they will bear for the war that could come.”

 

11. $264B for ICBMs That Would Be Destroyed in the Ground? No, Thanks

defenseone.com · by William J. Perry and Tom Z. Collina

Conclusion: "The Biden administration and Congress should see nuclear land-based missiles for what they really are: a colossal waste of taxpayer money and a catastrophe waiting to happen. But if the political momentum for keeping ICBMs can’t be stopped, then the existing fleet of missiles can be destroyed in the ground for much less cost than buying a new fleet. There is no need to pour hundreds of billions of dollars down the ICBM money pit."

 

12. At least 10 Asia Pacific gov'ts use COVID-19 for censorship, disinformation

rappler.com · by Camille Elemia · April 20, 2021

Some interesting data though I do not think it is too surprising.

 

13. US Nuclear Fears Are Shifting From a Clear Russian Threat to a Murkier Chinese One

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Excerpts: “But the majority of the questions Richards took related to the Chinese threat. China has 350 or so nukes,  less than one-tenth the active U.S. inventory of around 3,800. But he said that both China and Russia “have significant capability…to produce more warheads,” a capability that the United States does not possess.

He said that’s why China’s mysterious doctrine is so concerning and why the sort of deterrence strategies that the United States pursued during the Cold War no longer work. China, he said, could “use those capabilities coercively in a way that would limit our decision space in crisis. Additionally, it will rip out the underpinnings by which the rest of our forces are employed. We would not be able to deter China from escalating right past us if the stakes were high enough in a crisis or conflict.”

 

14. No Legal Objection, Per Se

warontherocks.com · by E.M. Liddick · April 21, 2021

A thought provoking essay.

 

15. A Bad Case of Déjà Vu

realcleardefense.com · by Thomas Spoehr

Excerpts: “Neither candidate found it advantageous to explain to the American people that, since 2014, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has been limited to training and assisting the Afghans --- not fighting. But that limited mission was hugely important. Like seasoning in a stew, just a few well-placed advisors and enablers can make a big difference.

...

Afghanistan is not Iraq, but 10 years later, Austin now finds himself in a similar situation, caught between a White House determined to completely pull out of a nascent nation and military commanders—reportedly including Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and the 4-star commanders of Central Command and Afghanistan—who believe it would be a mistake.

Speaking of those senior military leaders, Austin said, “Their voices were heard and their concerns taken into consideration as the president made his decision. But now the decision has been made, I call upon them to lead their forces ... through this transition.”

President Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance places a high premium on promoting democracy and for “standing behind our allies.” It’s difficult to see that guidance reflected in the decision to depart Afghanistan. And for Lloyd Austin, it must feel like déjà vu all over again.”

 

16. Psychological Warfare: Principles for Global Competition

Small Wars Journal · by Robert Coombs

Conclusion: “In the conduct of psychological warfare sight must never be lost of the fact that a change in attitudes and private opinions amounts to little if it fails to result in deviant, politically relevant behavior.

These principles of psychological warfare are a guide for operations and activities that desire to create behavioral and attitudinal change in foreign audiences. The guiding principles focus on creating tangible behaviors that support policy and objectives of the state. The goal of this document is to give planners and practitioners some guidelines for application of influence-based activities. It is also to place psychological warfare back into the forefront for planning operations. Defeating an enemy armor battalion, injecting a computer virus into a competitor’s network, or negotiating a bilateral agreement all bring about benefits. But, the peak of the U.S.’s capability will always be to influence a foreign nation to align their behaviors and attitudes in-line with our ideas of freedom, liberty, and justice.

 

17. Jetpacks give Special Forces assets the edge

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 20, 2021

 

18. What is China's Belt and Road Initiative and what were the four deals the federal government tore up?

ABC.net.au · April 22, 2021

Australia.

 

19. China’s Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America by Hal Brands

commentarymagazine.com · by Hal Brands · April 16, 2021

Conclusion: “Indeed, America is fully capable of squandering its advantages if it degrades or destroys its own democracy, declines to make domestic reforms and investments to maintain its competitive edge, fails to rally the overlapping coalitions needed to resist Chinese ambitions, or delays in driving the military innovation required to shore up a sagging balance in the Western Pacific. The list of hard policy problems America must urgently solve to prevail against China is itself long and formidable. And even if Washington does prevail in that rivalry, America may absorb significant setbacks—and the international order may absorb significant damage—in the process.

Yet as rough as the road ahead looks from Washington, it ought to look even rougher from Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party runs a profoundly illiberal regime that is trying to overcome centuries of liberal dominance. China is straining against a strategic geography and international system that surely seem more constraining than inviting. Chinese strategists must find a way of breaking America’s position in the Western Pacific while avoiding the potential cataclysm of major war. And Beijing is taking on a superpower that has thrashed all previous comers. Smart strategies have permitted Beijing to do remarkably well, so far, in managing these problems. But many of those strategies face an uncertain future, in part because the international complacency that allowed them to flourish has been replaced—gradually, but increasingly—with international concern.

This isn’t to say that China’s ambitions are hopeless illusions. In the coming years, there will be an intense interaction between an America that is adapting its strategies to deal with a pressing threat and a China that will have to adjust its own approaches in light of that response. Even American success in this interaction could bring new dangers: If Chinese leaders perceive that their window to achieve grand geopolitical goals is closing, then the regime could become even more aggressive in seeking to revise the global order while it still can.

Much thus hinges on the quality of decisions made in Washington and other capitals around the world. But the fact that so many characteristics of modern great-power politics seem to favor the United States probably gives the reigning superpower better options and more room for error than its autocratic challenger. Nothing is predetermined: Beijing may still succeed in displacing the United States as the primary power in Asia and, eventually, the world. Yet if it does, that outcome will represent a catastrophic failure of American statecraft—or an awesome triumph of Chinese strategy in overcoming the great obstacles that litter Beijing’s path to hegemony.

 

20. Today’s Generals and Admirals: What Has Happened to our Senior Military Officers?

standupamericaus.org · by Paul Vallely

A general critiques the generals.

 

---------------

 

“And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.”

- Thomas Jefferson, Letters of Thomas Jefferson

 

“You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man's age-old dream -- the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order --or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. Regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would sacrifice freedom for security have embarked on this downward path.”
- Ronald Reagan

 

“Democracy is a poor system; the only thing that can be said for it is that it's eight times as good as any other method.”
-  Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea seeking to defeat U.S. missile defenses: CRS report

2. U.N. rapporteurs send letter to S. Korea voicing concerns over anti-Pyongyang leafleting ban

3.  Seoul: Peace declaration ending Korean War under U.S. review

4. NK founder’s controversial autobiography published in South Korea

5. Court Rules Wartime Sex Slaves Cannot Sue Japan

6. Biden remarks pour cold water on Seoul’s ‘vaccine swap’ idea

7. S. Korea looks to Russia’s Sputnik V amid vaccine shortage

8. US focused on vaccinating Americans, but may help others later: Price

9. South Korea joins global top 10 economies

10. North Korea tightening up ties with communist nations

11. The Taiwan risk gorilla kicks Kim to Asia's sidelines

12. There are growing signs that official trade will soon begin between China and North Korea

13. Detention facilities in Dandong are "full" of defectors

14. Coercion or Compassion: How Should the U.S. Strategize North Korea’s COVID-19 Crisis?

15. Afghanistan and South Korea

 

1. N. Korea seeking to defeat U.S. missile defenses: CRS report

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 22, 2021

Here is the link to the short 2 page CRS report this article references.

 

2. U.N. rapporteurs send letter to S. Korea voicing concerns over anti-Pyongyang leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 22, 2021

The South has not protected its moral high ground. Its own goal or self-inflicted wound caused by the anti-leaflet law is harming its international stature.

 

3. Seoul: Peace declaration ending Korean War under U.S. review

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 21, 2021

Again, I want peace on the Korean peninsula but I have to ask to what end?  How is simply declaring an end of the war going to help advance peace given the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.  If there is a declaration of the end of the war we can expect north Korea, supported by China and Russia, to make a concerted effort to use the end of war declaration as rationale for ending the ROK/US alliance, removing US troops. and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan.  And if an end of war declaration is enacted without any reduction in the offensively postured nKPA force there will be no security for the ROK. And that is one key question that should be answered: How will an end of war declaration enhance the security of South Korea.

 

4. NK founder’s controversial autobiography published in South Korea

koreaherald.com · by Ko Jun-tae · April 22, 2021

I would normally applaud something like this.  People need to know and understand the leadership of the north. I would like to see this be accompanied by a scholarly assessment of the work to help readers understand the propaganda that is being published.

But I think this must be in violation of the ROK national security law, the spirit if not the letter.

This makes the Moon administration look bad, as if it somehow sympathizes with the north.  And of course the ROK government passed a law to prevent information going into north Korea yet allows the publication of propaganda from the north. And then I wonder if there will be any kind of monetary benefit for the north?  While Im Jong Seok be collecting royalties for the regime as he does with north Korean news that is used for broadcast by South Korean media outlets?

 

5. Court Rules Wartime Sex Slaves Cannot Sue Japan

english.chosun.com · April 22, 2021

 

6. Biden remarks pour cold water on Seoul’s ‘vaccine swap’ idea

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · April 22, 2021

Yet there are reports that the US is soon going to have a surplus (because of vaccine hesitancy and those who refuse to get vaccinated for various reasons from religious, political , conspiracy and personal choice reasons).

 

7. S. Korea looks to Russia’s Sputnik V amid vaccine shortage

koreaherald.com · by Shim Woo-hyun · April 22, 2021

Is it effective? What if it is not? 

 

8. US focused on vaccinating Americans, but may help others later: Price

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · April 22, 2021

 

9.  South Korea joins global top 10 economies

donga.com · April 22, 2021

 

10. North Korea tightening up ties with communist nations

The Korea Times · April 22, 2021

It's only friends?

 

11. The Taiwan risk gorilla kicks Kim to Asia's sidelines

asia.nikkei.com  · by William Pesek · April 21, 2021

But I fear that this could also drive Kim Jong-un to become a "spoiler" in great power competition.  There is some historical irony here. It was Kim Il-sung and his decision to attack the South that prevented Mao from executing his plans to unify China in1950.  Will the Taiwan security situation now take precedence over the Korean security situation?  Of course it cannot be either/or.

 

12. There are growing signs that official trade will soon begin between China and North Korea

dailynk.com  · by Seulkee Jang · April 22, 2021

Again, is China about to provide the safety relief valve for the regime?

 

13. Detention facilities in Dandong are "full" of defectors

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · April 22, 2021

Another indication that China is complicit in north Korea's human rights abuses.

Excerpts: “The North Korean authorities have been investing higher-than-usual amounts of manpower and equipment in the border region, where they began installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires in March. The authorities are also adding more barriers to existing barbed wire fences with the goal of preventing defections.

Meanwhile, the North Korean authorities have reportedly claimed that COVID-19 prevention is the reason why they continue to refuse China’s request to extradite North Korean defectors.

“Even though the Chinese government is trying to transfer the North Koreans [back to North Korea], the North Korean authorities are not accepting the request because of COVID-19,” the source said. “It appears that North Korean defectors will stay in detention until COVID-19 dies down.”

In addition to refusing to accept extradited defectors, North Korean authorities have also delayed the return of North Koreans working in China due to concerns about the influx of COVID-19.

 

14. Coercion or Compassion: How Should the U.S. Strategize North Korea’s COVID-19 Crisis?

The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · April 21, 2021

All our compassion for the suffering of the Korean people in the north will not matter one bit if Kim Jong-un does not share that same compassion. The international community has long been willing to help.  But it is the decision making of Kim Jong-un that both causes the suffering and prevents relief of the suffering.  It is not sanctions, COVID, or natural disasters that are causing the suffering.  The root cause of the suffering is Kim's policy decision making that prioritizes resources for the nuclear and missile programs, the military, and the elite over the welfare of the Korean people.

Lastly, we should keep in mind that offering to provide humanitarian assistance to the people will not cause Kim to either change his behavior or bring him to the negotiating table. 

 

15. Afghanistan and South Korea

The Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · April 22, 2021

My first thought is that Afghanistan and Korea are apples and oranges. As Don notes we have heard no talk from the Biden administration about reducing US forces in Korea.

But I can see how Koreans might think this could be an indication of future decision making.  Koreans were very worried when the decision was made to withdraw troops from Syria (which is even more different from Korean than is the Afghanistan situation).

And I am reminded whenever someone invokes the Vietnam model for north Korea that it is not the economic model that north Korea wants but the diplomatic, security and informational model that Kim desires: He would welcome a peace agreement  that leads to US withdrawal and then when he attacks the South the US decides not to return to Korea to help it despite previous security "guarantees." That is the Vietnam "model" Kim would sign up for.

Hopefully such thinking will be alleviated when the new administration policy is published. 

 

--------

 

“And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.”

- Thomas Jefferson, Letters of Thomas Jefferson

 

“You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man's age-old dream -- the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order --or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. Regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would sacrifice freedom for security have embarked on this downward path.”
- Ronald Reagan

 

“Democracy is a poor system; the only thing that can be said for it is that it's eight times as good as any other method.”
-  Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. ‘Joe-Yoshi’ Spirit Buoys Japan-US Alliance in Turbulent Seas

2. Beijing’s Military-Heavy Approach to Taiwan Locks the US and China in a Security Dilemma

3. Why is China Aggressively Turning to the Sea Now? Former NSA Shivshankar Menon Explains

4. Japan troops won’t get involved if China invades Taiwan, PM Yoshihide Suga says

5. Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan

6. The case for a US missile strike on Myanmar

7. Afghans Don't Need U.S. Troops. They Need Islands of Stability.

8. Afghanistan: The U.S. Can Always Go Back

9. Not Just for SOF Anymore: Envisioning Irregular Warfare as a Joint Force Priority

10. US Agencies, Defense Companies Hacked Via VPNs

11. Hybrid War and What to Do About It

12. Japan says Chinese military likely behind cyberattacks

13. FDD | Biden Administration Fires Warning Shot with New Russian Sanctions

14. FDD | Re-Engineering America’s Cyber Glass House

15. U.S. chooses defeat in Afghanistan

16. China’s keyboard warriors like to fight . . . each other

17. Opinion/Owens: Accepting America’s founding principles

18. Opinion | George W. Bush: Immigration is a defining asset of the United States. Here’s how to restore confidence in our system.

19. Why Political Sectarianism Is a Growing Threat to American Democracy

20. George W Bush on Trump’s Republicans: ‘Isolationist, protectionist, nativist’

21. A cyber tool that started at DARPA moves to Cyber Command

22. Post-riot effort to tackle extremism in the military largely overlooks veterans

 

1. ‘Joe-Yoshi’ Spirit Buoys Japan-US Alliance in Turbulent Seas

thediplomat.com · by Scott W. Harold · April 20, 2021

This will be used to measure the Moon-Biden meeting next month. Koreans in particular will try to compare the two relationships.

Conclusion: In the end, the U.S. and Japanese leaders appear to have established a warm, personal rapport while communicating a clear vision of the importance of working together to end the pandemic, combat climate change, preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific, and defend democracy. Further opportunities to advance this agenda could come at the climate summit this week and at the G-7 summit hosted by U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson June 11- 13, a session that may lead to a trilateral meeting with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, who himself will be coming to the United States for his own summit with Biden in late May. By grounding their relationship on the personal friendship and trust between the president and the prime minister, or “Joe” and “Yoshi,” as they referred to each other repeatedly, the Japan-U.S. alliance appears well-positioned to make progress on these and future challenges in the years ahead.

 

2. Beijing’s Military-Heavy Approach to Taiwan Locks the US and China in a Security Dilemma

thediplomat.com · by Jo Kim · April 20, 2021

Conclusion: This dilemma becomes more problematic considering China’s propensity to punish Taiwan rather than states that shore up ties with Taiwan. China has issued inconsistent and symbolic punishment of U.S. officials and foreign businesses over supporting Taiwan but has shown great resolve to coerce Taiwan over any perceived provocations. Since China considers its over 2,000 missiles aimed at Taiwan insufficient for deterring independence, and its huge market has not made unification a more favorable prospect for the Taiwanese, China and the United States are now locked in a security dilemma where China will increase military coercion against Taiwan regardless of the nature of the support the U.S. provides to Taiwan.

 

3. Why is China Aggressively Turning to the Sea Now? Former NSA Shivshankar Menon Explains

news18.com · April 21, 2021

A view from India.

 

4. Japan troops won’t get involved if China invades Taiwan, PM Yoshihide Suga says

SCMP · by Julian Ryall · April 21, 2021

I guess there will be no strategic ambiguity from Japan.

Japan troops won’t get involved if China 

invades Taiwan, PM Yoshihide Suga says

• A recent statement by Suga and Biden calling for ‘peace and stability 
• across the Taiwan Strait’ raised questions about possible Japanese 
• military involvement
• Analysts say Suga’s latest comments were Tokyo’s way of drawing 
• a line under suggestions the government could use a different interpretation 
• of the constitution to give it freer reign to dispatch the military

 

5. Threat of Chinese sanctions tests Japan's resolve on Taiwan

asia.nikkei.com

Excerpts: “The power struggle within Beijing is only expected to grow as Xi seeks a rare third term as China's leader at the Communist Party Congress next year. Retaliating against Japan could help the Xi administration ramp up pressure against the U.S. and its partners, while satisfying hawks at home amid a growing power struggle.

Japanese businesses would likely bear the brunt of the blow. They have suffered the consequences of diplomatic disputes in the past, from property damage caused by anti-Japan rallies to arrests. It remains to be seen how Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga plans to communicate with Japan's businesses and face political risks together -- one of many challenges that face Japan's alliance with the U.S.

 

6. The case for a US missile strike on Myanmar

asiatimes.com · by Anthony Davis · April 21, 2021

I did not see that one coming.

Interesting assessment here: "Ultimately, however, US military intervention in Myanmar could owe nothing to moral outrage and everything to a hard-headed assessment of American national interest. Even with its stated emphasis on democracy and human rights in guiding foreign policy choices, the calculus for the Biden administration would be complex."

But what would be the targets of a strike (author talks about Tomahawks) and what are the effects we would have a reasonable chance of achieving? And the author notes a military intervention could push Burma/Myanmar down the path of Syria.

Conclusion: “In that scenario, Tomahawk diplomacy might only serve to accelerate the descent into a Syria-like free-for-all in which a truncated national army operates as one of several players on an increasingly violent board.

Given the real prospect of unintended consequences, the risks for Team Biden in a theater that ultimately is not of critical strategic importance to the US are significant.

Indeed, for realists in Washington the massive and perhaps irreparable damage that the Tatmadaw has inflicted on China’s strategic objectives in Myanmar arguably already amounts to a significant win without a finger lifted.

In the wider geopolitical context, watching the metastasizing of a Southeast Asian disaster on China’s border without risking direct entanglement may have much to recommend it.

 

7. Afghans Don't Need U.S. Troops. They Need Islands of Stability.

Foreign Policy · by Michael F. Harsch, Taylor Whitsell · April 20, 2021

Islands of stability? A lot of theory here. Ink spots and government in a box too.

Excerpts: “Our findings suggest that creating security at the regional level is a feasible and sustainable approach. Unlike peaceful villages that remain highly vulnerable to outside attacks, provinces like Balkh are large enough to defend themselves against most domestic threats; at the same time, they are small enough to enable local accountability and political representation. In the presence of long-standing, bounded leaders, the local population will be ready to share information with the provincial government. As a senior member of the provincial council, whose name we decided to keep confidential given the current political uncertainty in Afghanistan, told us, “except for a fringe minority, the majority of the people … cooperate with Balkh’s government. … When they see anything suspicious, they report it to the relevant authorities immediately.” This allows the authorities to counter threats effectively. An influential local academic, whose identity we are also keeping confidential, pointed out that as a result of this steady information flow, security forces are “able to identify the location … of insurgent groups who are active in Balkh. Therefore, whenever even a small destructive activity takes place, it is clear where the source of the activity lies.”

...

A region-driven approach contrasts with failed attempts by foreign forces to create local “ink spots” of government control in Afghanistan, including the delivery of “government in a box” to newly captured areas. Unlike these, islands of stability already exist or can emerge under local leadership. This stabilization process will be slower yet is more likely to result in lasting change than policies imposed by foreigners on a hostile population.

 

Balkh Province isn’t Bavaria, and local leaders and conditions in Afghanistan should not be romanticized. Still, islands of stability offer a path toward cultivating reasonably effective, inclusive, and accountable governments within a fragile state. They may represent the best hope for a more effective U.S. approach to stabilizing Afghanistan and other conflict-ridden regions of the world.

 

8. Afghanistan: The U.S. Can Always Go Back

WSJ · by Gil Barndollar

Yes, bring back the punitive expedition. Oh, that is right we conducted one between September and December 2001.

Conclusion: "For reasons of both risk aversion and misplaced humanitarianism, the U.S. has foolishly abandoned the punitive expedition. America can’t afford to garrison Afghanistan, or other failing states, against disorder endlessly. It can afford to inflict short and sharp punishment in response to threats that grow large and obstinate enough to warrant it. America successfully did that to the Taliban in the months after 9/11. We can do it again."

 

9. Not Just for SOF Anymore: Envisioning Irregular Warfare as a Joint Force Priority

mwi.usma.edu · by Michael P. Noonan · April 21, 2021

Everyone has a role in irregular warfare. The US military has been conducting irregular warfare since 1776 (and before).

Excellent discussion from Michale Noonan. I also commend his new book: Irregular Soldiers and Rebellious States: Small Scale U.S. Interventions Abroad

I think the 60-40% "metric" described here is wrong for SOF. First, there is not a clear line between the two and second the majority of SOF can be better employed as part of great power competition while in that context violent extremist organizations can still be addressed. As an example if we were to help the Philippines with its ISIS terrorist problem (VEO) and its communist insurgency both of which could destabilize the Philippine government and make it more vulnerable to Chinese malign influence and activities, would those forces be part oft he 60% or 40%?

Excerpt: “While the military will not be the sole component of such cooperation, the size and ability of forces to move, communicate, and, when necessary, shoot often make it a useful tool. However, this engagement should not be a SOF-centered endeavor. This will drive overuse and, as the commander of SOCOM General Richard Clarke recently testified, the threats posed by violent extremism remain the primary focus of these units (60 percent of deployed forces) as opposed to GPC (40 percent). Even if these forces were 100 percent committed to GPC, their size and need for dwell time, for example, would not allow them to optimize US engagement across these activities. The more limited systems and capabilities of SOF also do not make them ideally suited to be the main effort to cooperate with the conventional units of friends and allies. Smaller, more frequent deployments of ships, aircraft, and company-sized elements not only could enable engagement with regional allies and partners, but would also show US commitment to an open international system without being overly provocative, facilitate relationships necessary for the future, and, hopefully, share American ideals.

 

10. US Agencies, Defense Companies Hacked Via VPNs

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams

Now I wonder about the commercial VPNs we use to protect our own systems.

 

11. Hybrid War and What to Do About It

thestrategybridge.org · by Jeffrey Bristol · April 21, 2021

I kind of thought Frank Hoffman had the best articulation of hybrid war back in about 2007 long before Gerasimov: Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars  

And I am so glad that we have done away with the 6 phase construct in JP 5-0 so we can replace it with intellectual rigor in campaign planning. But even now the "Notional Phasing for Military Activities" too often serves a template "crutch."

 

12. Japan says Chinese military likely behind cyberattacks

ABCNews.com · by ABC News

 

13. FDD | Biden Administration Fires Warning Shot with New Russian Sanctions

fdd.org · by John Hardie · April 20, 2021

Conclusion: "This ambiguity may be intended to enhance deterrence by preventing Moscow from anticipating Washington’s response to new provocations. Yet this uncertainty may only encourage the Kremlin to inch ever closer to implicit red lines. The Biden team should therefore consider issuing more specific warnings and identifying graduated response options involving sanctions and other measures, as appropriate. The administration should also discuss these options in advance with Congress and America’s allies and partners."

 

14. FDD | Re-Engineering America’s Cyber Glass House

fdd.org · by Georgianna Shea and Samantha Ravich · April 20, 2021

Consequence-Driven, Cyber-Informed Engineering (CCE). Continuity of the Economy (COTE)

Excerpts: “Just like CCE helps utilities, critical infrastructure providers, and other companies become resilient in the face of a determined attacker, COTE makes the nation as a whole more resilient. Through a structured prioritizing of essential functions, the United States will bolster its deterrence against cyber adversaries since the country will live to fight another day even after a large-scale attack.

The ability to recover after the glass breaks and ensure essential functions continue is what sets apart the vulnerable from the resilient. Whether or not it was indeed a cyberattack that brought Natanz to its knees, the United States should learn from Iran’s vulnerabilities. It is tempting to see only the upside to our adversaries’ weaknesses, but America must not forget that a determined, well-resourced actor will penetrate even the most secure systems, American critical infrastructure included. If the press stories are accurate, this time the cyber actor was a U.S. ally, but the next time, we may be the target.

 

15. U.S. chooses defeat in Afghanistan

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

Excerpts: “In 2011, President Obama’s top national security advisers recommended maintaining such a platform in Iraq. Unless a modest residual force remained, a jihadi resurgence was likely, they warned. Mr. Obama decided to declare victory and walk away. What followed was the rise of the Islamic State and the growth of Shia militias loyal to the Islamic Republic of Iran. Mr. Obama had to send American forces back to Iraq in 2014 — under much worse conditions.

One final concern: Because Afghan forces supported by the U.S. have been fighting the Taliban for two decades, millions of Afghans have been able to do things the Taliban had forbidden — like sending their daughters to school.

If we abandon them, such progress will likely come to an end and Americas’ Afghan allies may be slaughtered for the crime of having been America’s allies. Does President Biden understand that?

Announcing the American offensive against the Taliban and al Qaeda in 2001, President Bush vowed: “We will not waver, we will not tire, we will not falter, and we will not fail.” Twenty years later, President Biden has decided that, actually, we will waver, tire, falter and fail. It’s a lesson both our friends and our enemies will take to heart.”

 

16. China’s keyboard warriors like to fight . . . each other

Financial Times · by Yuan Yang · April 20, 2021

Excerpt: “It can be too easy to conclude from incidents such as the H&M blow-up that all patriotic sentiment online is manufactured. In fact, that outburst illustrated the complexity of Chinese nationalism on the internet: that while party organs placed a target on H&M’s head, the public anger was real. To better understand this complexity, one must explore the internet communities that exist away from the spotlight.”

 

17. Opinion/Owens: Accepting America’s founding principles

providencejournal.com

It is our founding principles that will save our Republic. But one of our unspoken principles that is baked into our Constitution through checks and balances and separation of powers (and the amendment process) is that we correct our mistakes. We have corrected our mistakes throughout our history and we will continue to do so in accordance with and keeping true to our founding principles. 

Conclusion: "Certainly, the United States has not always lived up to its own principles. Slavery persisted long after the founding of the United States. Even with its abolition, racial injustice continued in the form of Jim Crow laws and other systems of oppression. But the reality is that the best hope of achieving racial justice is to embrace, not reject, those principles."

 

18.  Opinion | George W. Bush: Immigration is a defining asset of the United States. Here’s how to restore confidence in our system.

The Washington Post · by George W. Bush · April 16, 2021

Conclusion: “As for the millions of undocumented men and women currently living in the United States, a grant of amnesty would be fundamentally unfair to those who came legally or are still waiting their turn to become citizens. But undocumented immigrants should be brought out of the shadows through a gradual process in which legal residency and citizenship must be earned, as for anyone else applying for the privilege. Requirements should include proof of work history, payment of a fine and back taxes, English proficiency and knowledge of U.S. history and civics, and a clean background check. We should never forget that the desire to live in the United States — a worldwide and as powerful an aspiration as ever — is an affirmation of our country and what we stand for. Over the years, our instincts have always tended toward fairness and generosity. The reward has been generations of grateful, hard-working, self-reliant, patriotic Americans who came here by choice.

If we trust those instincts in the current debate, then bipartisan reform is possible. And we will again see immigration for what it is: not a problem and source of discord, but a great and defining asset of the United States.

 

19. Why Political Sectarianism Is a Growing Threat to American Democracy

The New York Times · by Nate Cohn · April 19, 2021

 

20. George W Bush on Trump’s Republicans: ‘Isolationist, protectionist, nativist’

The Guardian · by Martin Pengelly · April 20, 2021

Three words that should be stricken from our political vocabulary.

 

21. A cyber tool that started at DARPA moves to Cyber Command

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · April 20, 2021

 

22. Post-riot effort to tackle extremism in the military largely overlooks veterans

The Washington Post · by Paul Sonne, Alex Horton and Julie Tate  · April 20, 2021

Excerpts: “One solution — a frank discussion with service members about the challenges of plugging back into society — could be added to the materials and programs that service members already receive when they leave the military, Schake said.

Civil society can also embrace veterans in a more proactive way, she said, by looking to other examples as a road map. Religious groups foster connections among refugees settling in the United States, for instance, and leaders deliberately anchor them within communities, she said.

Groups such as American Legion chapters and Rotary Clubs could act as tributaries to direct veterans to positive connections.

“It’s going to take involvement of all levels of society to solve this problem,” including government, nonprofits and individuals, said Jeremy Butler, the chief executive of Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America, a nonprofit advocacy group.

The Defense Department has unique power to bar active-duty service member involvement in extremist groups and weed out those who violate guidelines, Butler said. But VA can speak about the issue, he said, and “foster a culture . . . that disavows extremism and promotes racial justice.”

 

-----------------

 

“And I have no doubt that the American people generally believe the world is safer, and that we are safer, when we are stronger”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

“strategy formation walks on two feet, one deliberate, the other emergent.”

- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

 

"Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves."

- Ronald Reagan

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. After Trump ‘Failed,’ South Korean Leader Hopes Biden Can Salvage Nuclear Deal

2. In NYT interview, Moon urges Washington to resume dialogue with Pyongyang

3. Moon says public consensus needed for granting pardons to two jailed ex-presidents

4. What to Make of China’s New Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs

5. N. Korea tightens antivirus measures in border city along China

6. Seoul court rejects sexual slavery claim against Tokyo

7. Stop controlling press (South Korea)

8. North Korea Working on Nampo Missile Test Stand Barge

9. Last-remaining int'l aid workers leave N. Korea: Russian official

10. FM calls N. Korea's cross-border firing a 'minor' violation of military peace deal

11. North Korea 'hiding existence of Covid-19 vaccines from public', claims Russian ambassador

12. Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim’s Atomic Appetite? Think Again.

13. Why Kim Announced Another Arduous March and Why He Will Fail

14. COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea’s Bad Choices

15. China Secretly Sends Food Aid to North Korea by Rail

16. In South Korea, Antagonism Toward China Is Growing

17. Innovating Our Approach to Human Rights in North Korea

18. Why You Shouldn't Be Afraid of Kim Jong-un

 

1. After Trump ‘Failed,’ South Korean Leader Hopes Biden Can Salvage Nuclear Deal

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · April 21, 2021

What is lacking in this interview is a discussion of President Moon's "peace agenda." I am surprised that he did not use this interview to discuss his vision and the author only offers this:

“Mr. Moon is not only scrambling to salvage his “Korean Peninsula Peace Process” but also arguably his greatest diplomatic legacy.

As his North Korea policy has faltered, critics have called him a naïve pacifist who bet too much on Mr. Kim’s unproven commitment to denuclearization.”

Excerpts: “I hope that Biden will go down as a historic president that has achieved substantive and irreversible progress for the complete denuclearization and peace settlement on the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Moon said in the interview from Sangchunjae, a traditional hanok on the grounds of the executive residence, Blue House.

...

“I believe that if we build on what President Trump has left, we will see this effort come to fruition under Biden’s leadership,” he said.

...

But Mr. Moon’s team argues that the phased approach is the most realistic, even if it is imperfect. As his administration sees it, North Korea would never give up its arsenal in one quick deal, lest the regime lose its only bargaining chip with Washington.

The key​​, Mr. Moon said, is for the United States and North Korea to work out a “mutually trusted road map.”

American negotiators under Mr. Trump never made it to that point. Both sides could not even agree on a first step for the North and what reward Washington would provide in return.

 

2. In NYT interview, Moon urges Washington to resume dialogue with Pyongyang

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 21, 2021

Yonhap's assessment of President Moon's NY Times interview.

 

3. Moon says public consensus needed for granting pardons to two jailed ex-presidents

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 21, 2021

I did not expect to hear this from President Moon. Will public opinion demand their pardons?

 

4. What to Make of China’s New Special Representative on Korean Peninsula Affairs

38north.org · by Yun Sun · April 20, 2021

I guess the PRC-nK alliance will continue as closer than lips and teeth. An interesting assessment in the conclusion that China appears to be ready to ramp up diplomatic activities over north Korea.

Conclusion: This year marks the 60th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-North Korean Mutual Aid and Cooperation Friendship Treaty. The Treaty automatically renews every 20 years. Given that no advanced notice for cancellation has been announced by either side, the Treaty will continue for the foreseeable future. In light of the changes to US-China relations and the conditions in North Korea, China appears to be ramping up its personnel appointments, resources and efforts to prepare for diplomatic engagement over North Korea. The decisions are strategically timed to echo the completion of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review. Beijing may not feel the ball is in its court and could wait for Washington to reach out first, but its interest and posturing are fully panned out.

 

5. N. Korea tightens antivirus measures in border city along China

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 21, 2021

China-nK trade may resume with new safety measures but it seems the regime will continue to crack down on smuggling and other border activities. Will the legal trade be sufficient to relieve the suffering of the Korean people?

 

6. Seoul court rejects sexual slavery claim against Tokyo

AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung

 

7. Stop controlling press (South Korea)

The Korea Times · April 21, 2021

Excerpt: "The ruling camp is apparently seeking to introduce the bills to tame the media outlets ahead of the presidential election scheduled for next March. It is under attack for trying to prevent media companies from producing articles critical of the government and the DPK in the name of thwarting fake news. Former DPK Chairman Lee Nak-yon once said the party will closely monitor media outlets. Yet, it is totally improper to blame the press for its defeat in the by-elections. Ruling party members should first reflect on themselves and humbly acknowledge their mistakes. Above all, they must immediately stop their attempts to control the mass media."

 

8. North Korea Working on Nampo Missile Test Stand Barge

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha · April 20, 2021

Images at the link.  

 

9. Last-remaining int'l aid workers leave N. Korea: Russian official

en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · April 21, 2021

Again this is because of Kim Jong-un decision making.

 

10. FM calls N. Korea's cross-border firing a 'minor' violation of military peace deal

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · April 21, 2021

Note this is discussing an event from last May not recently.

But what I think is important is that the ROK wants to give the north a pass for the actions. It continues to try to paint the picture that the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement is working. The north has failed to live up to the agreement in multiple ways while the ROK has tried to implement all aspects of it in good faith. Rather than give the north a pass, the Foreign Minister ought to be calling out the north's (and lack of actions).

 

11. North Korea 'hiding existence of Covid-19 vaccines from public', claims Russian ambassador

Mirror · by Ryan Merrifield · April 20, 2021

Perhaps easy to do when the north has no vaccines.  

 

12. Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim’s Atomic Appetite? Think Again.

The National Interest · by Soo Kim · April 20, 2021

We need to keep emphasizing this: “Coronavirus or not, Kim’s appetite for nuclear and missile bargaining with the United States remain intact. For the Biden administration, this likely spells further weapons demonstrations from North Korea, with potentially longer-range, more power missile demonstrations to test Washington’s resolve in its nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang.”

 

13. Why Kim Announced Another Arduous March and Why He Will Fail

The National Interest · by Jihyun Park · April 19, 2021

We can see how Kim Jong-un has been laying the groundwork for blame on sanctions, COVID, and natural disasters over the past few months. 

But the conditions are much different than the 1990s and the way the regime was able to survive that place with aid from South Korea and the development of markets as a safety valve may no longer be viable "rescue adoptions."

 

14.  COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea’s Bad Choices

The National Interest · by Bruce W. Bennett · April 20, 2021

And all the bad choices have been made by Kim and he will continue to make bad choices given the nature of the Kim family regime.

 

15. China Secretly Sends Food Aid to North Korea by Rail

rfa.org · by Jieun Kim

Things might be so bad that China had to activate its safety valve. Remember China's "3 No's" toward nK: No War. No instability and regime collapse. No nukes. two out of three is not bad. But seriously I think the Chinese fear nK instability and this may be one course of action to try to prevent it.

 

16. In South Korea, Antagonism Toward China Is Growing

voanews.com · by Jingyi Ge and William Gallo

Will this have any effect on the Moon administration foreign policy toward China?

 

17.  Innovating Our Approach to Human Rights in North Korea

YouTube

This 90 minute session is worth every minute of time spent listening to it. These escapees provide very powerful and important insights. Anyone who focuses on north Korea should watch this video.

 

18. Why You Shouldn't Be Afraid of Kim Jong-un

Anin Justice Mag · by Alexander Bird · April 20, 2021

This is one of the most unbelievable pieces of propaganda about north Korea (and China) that I have seen lately (that was not written by the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department though I think they will be using the information and spin in this for their future messages).

I have to beg to differ with the author. He is not presenting "facts." It is all spin for some kind of agenda.

 

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“And I have no doubt that the American people generally believe the world is safer, and that we are safer, when we are stronger”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

“strategy formation walks on two feet, one deliberate, the other emergent.”

- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

 

"Government exists to protect us from each other. Where government has gone beyond its limits is in deciding to protect us from ourselves."

- Ronald Reagan