News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. AP Exclusive: WHO report says animals likely source of COVID

2.  Disinformation vs. Misinformation

3. Assessing the Application of a Cold War Strategic Framework to Establish Norms in the Cyber Threat Environment

4. 'Be aware': The Pentagon's target list for extremist infiltrators — right and left

5. Iran, China sign landmark 25-year cooperation agreement

6. Opinion | The United States has a major hole in its cyberdefense. Here’s how to fix it.

7. An Alliance of Autocracies? China Wants to Lead a New World Order.

8. Authorities and Legal Considerations for US Cyber and Information Operations in a Contested Environment

9. Biden Team Boosts Effort to Shield U.S. Power Grid From Hackers

10. In the South China Sea, Biden is outdoing Trump in bluff and bluster

11. China’s Belt and Road Effort Demands a Multipart US Response

12. Exclusive: The Secret Global Data Cell Infiltrating Jihadists

13. The puzzle of Joe Biden’s ‘middle class foreign policy’

14. A Clash of Civilizations with Chinese Characteristics

15. The New American Geostrategic Consensus Over China – Analysis

16. Open letter to the troops: Take the damn vaccine, please

17. US Special Operations Command 'Not Aware' of Top Hire's Anti-Trump Posts

18. CIA Super Spy, or Super Con?

19. Remembering Jerry Sage, the Inspiration for “The Great Escape”

20. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 29, 2021 | SOF News

21. In Great Power Wars, Americans Could Again Become POWs

22. Did China cross a new red line in cyberspace?

 

1. AP Exclusive: WHO report says animals likely source of COVID

AP · by Ken Moritsugu and Jamey Keaten · March 29, 2021

Expose Chinese influence on this report. Such exposure should cause Chinese efforts to prevent accountability to backfire

Excerpt: “The report’s release has been repeatedly delayed, raising questions about whether the Chinese side was trying to skew the conclusions to prevent blame for the pandemic falling on China. A World Health Organization official said late last week that he expected it would be ready for release “in the next few days.”

The AP received a copy on Monday from a Geneva-based diplomat from a WHO-member country. It wasn’t clear whether the report might still be changed prior to release, though the diplomat said it was the final version. A second diplomat confirmed getting the report too. Both refused to be identified because they were not authorized to release it ahead of publication.”

 

2. Disinformation vs. Misinformation

carryingthegun.com · by DG · March 29, 2021

A reminder for those who need reminding.

 

3. Assessing the Application of a Cold War Strategic Framework to Establish Norms in the Cyber Threat Environment

divergentoptions.org · by Divergent Options · March 29, 2021

Conclusion: “As cyber capabilities have expanded and matured over time, there has been an apparent failure to achieve consensus on what the red lines of cyber confrontation are. Some actors appear to abide by general rules, while others make it a point of exploring new ways to raise or lower the bar on acceptable actions in cyberspace. Meanwhile, criminals and non-aligned groups are just as aggressive with their operations as many terrorist groups were during the height of the Cold War, and they are similarly frequently used or discarded by nation states depending on the situation and the need. However, nation states on the two sides were useful bulwarks against overzealous actions, as they could exert influence over the actions of groups operating from their territory or abusing their patronage. Espionage in cyberspace will not stop, nor can a framework anticipate every possible scenario that my unfold. Despite these imperfections, in the future an issue like the SolarWinds breach could lead to a series of escalatory actions a la the Cuban Missile Crisis, or the cyber threat environment could be governed by a Strategic Arms Limitation Talk-like treaty which bans cyber intrusions into global supply chains[10]. Applying aspects of the Cold War strategic framework can begin to bring order to the chaos of the cyber threat environment, while also helping highlight areas where this framework falls short and new ways of thinking are needed.”

 

4. 'Be aware': The Pentagon's target list for extremist infiltrators — right and left

Politico · March 27, 2021

There is no place for extremists of the right or left in our military. But we have to do this right or we risk undermining the trust in our military as well as good order and discipline.

Dr. Kurth Cronin describes the real problem we have and we may be violating one of the most important rules of planning - developing a plan without a thorough understanding of the problem we are trying to solve. And the irony is such an action can (and likely will) play into the narrative of extremists that will contribute to enhancing legitimacy of extremist organizations and aid in recruiting.

 

Excerpts: “But the Pentagon says one is too many and the true numbers are not known because adherents who have been recruited by extremist groups or encouraged to enlist often organize and communicate in secret.

“No one truly knows,” Audrey Kurth Cronin, the director of American University’s Center for Security, Innovation and New Technology, told a House panel this week. “No serious plan can be built without defining the scope of the problem.”

The internal training materials focus on extremist behavior and symbolism — of all different stripes — and point out the risk of making false assumptions about people who do not pose any threat. This includes pointing out that religious conservatives are often mistakenly lumped together with white supremacists or other extremists.”

 

5. Iran, China sign landmark 25-year cooperation agreement

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · March 27, 2021

 

6. Opinion | The United States has a major hole in its cyberdefense. Here’s how to fix it.

The Washington Post · by Robert M. Gates · March 28, 2021

Excerpt: “For Cyber Command to be able to respond instantly to attacks, the commander also had to be in charge of the National Security Agency, the only U.S. institution with the capability to defend the country against such attacks and retaliate. Cyberdefense and cyberoffense, I was convinced (and still am), needed to be commanded by one person. The commander of Cyber Command could not be in the position of having to ask for or negotiate NSA support, thus increasing the danger of delays in our response time.”

 

7. An Alliance of Autocracies? China Wants to Lead a New World Order.

The New York Times · by Steven Lee Myers · March 29, 2021

My personal assessment: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

 

8. Authorities and Legal Considerations for US Cyber and Information Operations in a Contested Environment

mwi.usma.edu · by Gary Corn · March 29, 2021

Conclusion: “When in doubt, it is easy to fall back on what you know. But when it comes to the complex challenges of conducting military cyber and information operations in the gray zone of great power competition, easy is generally not the right or even the best answer. With respect to both defend-forward operations and true deterrence, there needs to be a more sophisticated approach to targeting strategies, resisting the tendency to revert to armed-conflict targeting paradigms and instead developing and instantiating targeting procedures better aligned to the unique operational environment and the non–armed conflict legal structures that apply.”

 

9. Biden Team Boosts Effort to Shield U.S. Power Grid From Hackers

Yahoo · by Jennifer Jacobs, Jennifer A. Dlouhy and Michael Riley

Excerpts: “A chief concern is deciding the shape of collective defense and response efforts. Administration officials at the March 16 meeting made clear they were seeking to enhance coordination, communication, reporting and response between the industry and government.

The virtual session was the first broad meeting between top Biden administration officials and executives in the Electricity Subsector Coordinating Council, a group designed to further industry-government coordination on protecting the grid.

The electric power sector values its close working relationship with partners in government, said Scott Aaronson, vice president for security and preparedness at the Edison Electric Institute that represents investor-owned electric companies.

“We appreciate that this administration already is coordinating with grid operators to protect critical energy infrastructure,” Aaronson said in an emailed statement. “Protecting and defending critical infrastructure is a shared responsibility that requires engagement and expertise from asset owners and government partners.”

  

10. In the South China Sea, Biden is outdoing Trump in bluff and bluster

SCMP · by Mark J. Valencia · by March 29, 2021

Excerpts: “In 2016, Blinken told the House of Representatives that China “can’t have it both ways”, being a party to UNCLOS but rejecting binding arbitration decisions. Yet the US is trying to do precisely that – pick and choose which provisions it will abide by, in a treaty it has not even ratified. The Quad and the US claim to want a region “unconstrained by coercion”. Yet coercion is exactly what the US is using to enforce its unilateral interpretation of freedom of navigation.

To regain and retain its moral leadership, the US needs to show that its values and system of government are the best for all, and that it can and will maintain a competitive edge with China economically and technologically – not just militarily. So far, the US seems to be failing in that, and relying instead on bluster, bluff and implied use of force.

This is not the hallmark of a great and successful nation. The US should reconsider its militaristic and confrontational approach to China in its near seas.

 

11. China’s Belt and Road Effort Demands a Multipart US Response

defenseone.com · by Jennifer Hullman and David Sacks

Excerpts: “Our independent Task Force report, chaired by Jacob J. Lew and Admiral (retired) Gary Roughead, evaluated the implications of BRI for U.S. interests and put forward a U.S. strategy to respond to it.

When Xi introduced BRI in 2013, he believed it could advance an array of Chinese economic, political, and geopolitical interests while filling a vital need in many countries for reliable sources of power and better infrastructure.

In theory, BRI has the potential to be a net positive in multiple respects, helping to close an infrastructure gap in developing countries while also smoothing transportation and logistics paths, and contributing to regional and global economic growth.

In practice, however, BRI’s risks outweigh its benefits. BRI undermines global macroeconomic stability by lending funds to unsustainable projects, thereby adding to countries’ debt burdens. It locks some countries into carbon-intensive futures by promoting coal-fired power plants, tilts the playing field in major markets toward Chinese companies, promotes exclusive reliance on Chinese technology, and draws countries into tighter economic and political relationships with Beijing.

 

12. Exclusive: The Secret Global Data Cell Infiltrating Jihadists

worldcrunch.com · by Rozena Crossman · March 28, 2021

Who leaks this stuff? Or do we want it leaked? Does it serve a purpose to leak it?

 

13. The puzzle of Joe Biden’s ‘middle class foreign policy’

Financial Times · by Edward Luce · March 28, 2021

Excerpts: “Biden faces two problems in showcasing his diplomacy to Main Street. First, the US’s allies are craving more economic engagement. That means trade and investment deals. Biden could differentiate from past ones by focusing on 21st-century issues such as 5G and green technology, as opposed to Trump’s mania for soyabeans and steel.

But unless the US is ready to deal with its Asian and European partners, China will continue to eat into US market share. That would damage both the American middle class and US global standing. Most of America’s Asian partners do much more trade with China than with the US.

Second, any kind of trade talks are now treated as toxic in US politics, in part because many Americans blame globalisation for squeezed incomes. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s strategic-minded national security adviser — and one of the architects of his middle class foreign policy — has argued that the US has allowed the likes of Goldman Sachs and Big Pharma to dictate the terms of past trade deals. This is indisputable. Business lobby groups have always had far greater clout in Washington than trade unions, environmental groups and other stakeholders. “

 

14. A Clash of Civilizations with Chinese Characteristics

The National Interest · by Wesley Jefferies · March 28, 2021

Conclusion: “These measures should be considered complementary, rather than alternatives, to existing proposals for naval deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The geopolitical implications for Western civilization from Chinese hegemony over Eurasia should also be accounted for in any U.S. strategy. Any policy that cannot go beyond simply “pivoting” or “decoupling” fails to capture the full threat being posed not just to the United States but to the very future of the West. A world in which the “rest” is pitted against the West, where the United States faces a consolidating Eurasian continent across either shore, and the geopolitical axis of the world shifts to a totalitarian party in Beijing will not be a world where the United States will remain secure or sovereign for long.”

 

15. The New American Geostrategic Consensus Over China – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by John Hulsman · March 28, 2021

Conclusion: “And, indeed, 20th-century history is littered with the graves of authoritarian regimes who underestimated America: The Kaiser’s Germany, Tojo’s Japan, Hitler’s Reich, and Stalin’s Russia. In each case, America was thought weak, decadent, in decline, and incapable of staying the course. In each case, the authoritarian edifice crumbled before America’s surprisingly enduring domestic and geostrategic consensus.

This is now happening again. As was true for Truman and Eisenhower, once again two US presidents (Donald Trump and Joe Biden) who heartily disapprove of one another are paradoxically forging the domestic political basis to a geopolitical agreement over how to deal with America’s primary superpower rival that seems bound to stand the test of time.”

 

16. Open letter to the troops: Take the damn vaccine, please

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 28, 2021

 

17. US Special Operations Command 'Not Aware' of Top Hire's Anti-Trump Posts

theepochtimes.com · by Zachary Stieber · March 27, 2021

Well this appears to be backfiring if this report (note from the Epoch Times) is accurate.

 

18. CIA Super Spy, or Super Con?

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

Truth stranger than fiction.

 

19. Remembering Jerry Sage, the Inspiration for “The Great Escape”

sofrep.com · March 27, 2021

 

20. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 29, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · March 29, 2021

 

21. In Great Power Wars, Americans Could Again Become POWs

defenseone.com · by Jan Kallberg and Todd Arnold

SERE at Fort Bragg was the best school I ever attended in my 30 years in the Army.

 

22. Did China cross a new red line in cyberspace?

sundayguardianlive.com · by Mark Montgomery and Trevor Logan· March 27, 2021

 

-------------

 

“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that."

- John Stuart Mill

 

"Since Mao’s demise, the Party has refreshed its Leninist roots, gingerly built up the legal system and set about co-opting wealthier more educated members of society. In the same way that some western political parties like to style themselves as big tents, the Party now markets itself as an inclusive organization with uniquely Chinese roots. China can, in theory have it all – democracy, a functioning legal system, a vibrant civil society, disputatious think-tanks, innovative universities and a blossoming private sector – as long as they develop within the boundaries the Party lays down for them."

-Richard McGregor, The Party

 

"The core political values of our free society are so deeply embedded in our collective consciousness that only a few malcontents, lunatics generally, ever dare to threaten them."

- John McCain

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korean official says Biden criticism of missile launches reveals ‘deep-seated hostility’ toward country

2. N. Korea threatens U.S. in response to Biden’s warning

3. Minister urges N. Korea to respond to calls for humanitarian cooperation

4. North Korean authorities encourage people to hand over "illegal propaganda material"

5. Loaded language: U.S. denuclearization phrasing puts progress on North Korea in jeopardy

6. North Korea accuses U.N. Security Council of 'double standard' over missile tests

7. North Korea threatens US with 'invincible physical power'

8. North Korea likely to increase provocation level

9. South Korea, US working closely on how to improve THAAD base conditions

10. Human rights and inter-Korean peace process

11. Did North Korea Test a Copy Of a Dangerous New Russian Missile?

 

1. North Korean official says Biden criticism of missile launches reveals ‘deep-seated hostility’ toward country

militarytimes.com · by Kim Tong-Hyung · March 28, 2021

Actually we do not have a deep seated hostility toward north Korea or the Korean people living in the north.  In fact it is our concern for the Korean people in the north, as well as all Koreans, that drives our deep created hostility toward the Kim family regime. As I have written many times: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

But these statements from north Korea reveal its intent and how it is trying to shape the new Biden administration's Korea policy.  It would like to make the policy dead on arrival and allow it to progress if the Biden administration makes concessions, e.g., sanctions relief for a promise from the regime to talk.

 

2. N. Korea threatens U.S. in response to Biden’s warning

donga.com · March 29, 2021

The regime is executing its seven decades playbook.  These "threats" are standard actions in support of blackmail diplomacy.

Just take a look at this CSIS database on provocations and you can see the pattern.  

 

I recommend Dr. Bruce Bechtol work "DPRK Provocations: Deterring the Cycle of Violence," in his book North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma (pp 40-55) 

The best resource for north Korea provocations from 1950-2007 is from the Congressional Research Service.  I wish CRS would update this.

 

3. Minister urges N. Korea to respond to calls for humanitarian cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 29, 2021

Think about this.  We have to beg the Kim family regime to be able to provide humanitarian assistance to the Korean people living  in the north who are suffering horrendously because Kim Jong-un denies their human rights and oppresses them so that he can remain in power.  Think about this.

 

4. North Korean authorities encourage people to hand over "illegal propaganda material"

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui  · March 29, 2021

Don't do it.  It is a trick.

But on a serious note, information is an existential threat to the survival of the regime and this may be another indication of how desperate the regime is to control information.  It may no longer be able to control and prevent the Korean people from accessing it.

 

5. Loaded language: U.S. denuclearization phrasing puts progress on North Korea in jeopardy

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · March 28, 2021

"Denuclearization" is only in "jeopardy" because of the decisions and actions of Kim Jong-un and not because of an argument over words.  But this debate over words is important because it helps us to expose the Kim family regime strategy  and true nature.

 

6. North Korea accuses U.N. Security Council of 'double standard' over missile tests

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · March 28, 2021

You have to admire the chutzpah of the Kim family regime. No double standard. You either comply with the UN Security Council resolutions or you do not.

 

7. North Korea threatens US with 'invincible physical power'

Daily Mail · by Valerie Edwards · March 28, 2021

"Invincible power?"  The Propaganda and Agitation department has been watching the Marvel movie franchise.  And the mafia-like crime family cult is calling President Biden "gangster-like."

North Korea threatens US with 'invincible physical power' and says Biden administration used 'gangster-like logic' to take its 'first wrong step' in criticizing missile tests:

• North Korea said Saturday that Biden administration had taken a wrong first step and revealed 'deep-seated hostility' by criticizing its self-defensive missile test
• On Friday, North Korea said it launched a new tactical short-range ballistic missile; President Biden said test violated UN Security Council resolutions
• An official of North Korea said that Washington might face 'something that is not good' if it continues to make 'thoughtless remarks'

 

8. North Korea likely to increase provocation level

The Korea Times · March 29, 2021

I am reminded of Lenin: “You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw.”

 

9. South Korea, US working closely on how to improve THAAD base conditions

The Korea Times · March 29, 2021

The only way to solve this problem is for the Korean government to deal with the protestors.

 

10. Human rights and inter-Korean peace process

The Korea Times · by Park Jung-won · March 29, 2021

An interesting comparison between Presidents Park Chung Hee and Moon Jae-in.

Conclusion: “When both Park's dictatorial and Moon's progressive regimes have been driven by cherishing "peace, national reconciliation and national reunification" agendas, defining human rights in different ways in the South and the North respectively, where do ordinary individuals fit within such grandiosely constructed notions? What will ultimately be the benefit of such an outcome if it disregards human rights in any objective sense? Is this tragic comedy or comical tragedy?”

 

11. Did North Korea Test a Copy Of a Dangerous New Russian Missile?

The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · March 28, 2021

Most all of north Korean weapons technology originates in Russia. The regime does do a great job both reverse engineering it and adapting it to tier requirements.

 

--------------

 

“He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that."

- John Stuart Mill

 

"Since Mao’s demise, the Party has refreshed its Leninist roots, gingerly built up the legal system and set about co-opting wealthier more educated members of society.  In the same way that some western political parties like to style themselves as big tents, the Party now markets itself as an inclusive organization with uniquely Chinese roots.  China can, in theory have it all – democracy, a functioning legal system, a vibrant civil society, disputatious think-tanks, innovative universities and a blossoming private sector – as long as they develop within the boundaries the Party lays down for them."

-Richard McGregor, The Party

 

"The core political values of our free society are so deeply embedded in our collective consciousness that only a few malcontents, lunatics generally, ever dare to threaten them."

- John McCain

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The U.S. Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies

2. Why the International Order Is Tilting Toward Autocracy

3. In Suez Canal, Stuck Ship Is a Warning About Excessive Globalization

4. Negotiating [Im]plausible Deniability: Strategic Guidelines for U.S. Engagement in Modern Indirect Warfare

5. U.S. wages psychological war on Moscow - Russian defense adviser

6. Re-Budgeting for a Right-Sized International Counterterrorism Posture

7. Pentagon linguist pleads guilty to exposing U.S. intelligence sources to Hezbollah

8. New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China

9. America Needs to Rediscover Strategic MacGyverism

10. 'Things really are very bad' — Biden navigates cyber attacks without a cyber czar

11. War is Changing. So Should the Pentagon’s Budget

12. Malign or benign? China–US strategic competition under Biden

13. Prosecutors struggle with consistent story in cases involving Capitol riot

14. Chronicles of an American Diplomat: John Quincy Adams

15. Under Biden, Diplomacy Is an Attractive Career Again

16. Stop asking the US military to fight terrorism and rebuild countries

17. U.S.-China sanctions battle escalating under Biden with focus on Xinjiang abuses

18. US-Taiwan coast guard partner to blunt potential Chinese invasion

 

1. The U.S. Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies

Foreign Affairs · by Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon · March 26, 2021

Conclusion: Having allies requires sacrifices grounded in common values; it does not mean that other democratic countries must in every case do what the United States wants. The Biden administration should compromise on Nord Stream 2, securing concessions that mollify Central Europe and Ukraine, and then let go of this outdated concern. Far from showing that “America is back,” our uncompromising stance impedes the deepening of allied cooperation for our more important problems.

 

2. Why the International Order Is Tilting Toward Autocracy

Foreign Affairs · by Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon · March 26, 2021

This is the question I often wonder about: What comes next? What will replace the international rules based order? What will replace liberal democracies? 

Excerpt: "But if the current liberal international order is in trouble, what kind of illiberal order might emerge in its wake? Does an illiberal order necessarily mean competition for naked power among increasingly nationalist great powers, rampant protectionism, and a world hostile to democratic governance?"

Conclusion: “The good news is that there are few effective pro-corruption norms. Kleptocrats prefer to convince their citizens that everyone is equally corrupt and weaponize anticorruption measures against political opponents. Thus, opposition to corruption remains politically relevant in illiberal powers such as Russia and China, even as these countries increasingly use corruption strategically to buy off and capture elites, bureaucrats, and regulators overseas.

The success of efforts to develop an illiberal order does not mean that liberal powers lack opportunities to shape norms and institutions. No international order is homogeneous. There is nothing unusual about variations in arrangements and values across different regions or policy domains. Some aspects of contemporary liberal order, however, particularly in the economic domain, require reform lest they continue to undermine the viability of domestic liberal democratic institutions.

Indeed, policymakers interested in resisting challenges to liberalism need to prioritize its political dimensions, both at home and in intergovernmental settings. This means defending political liberalism in word and deed. It also means affirming, rather than undermining, its current normative foundation. Projects, such as former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s attempt to redefine human rights, that require attacking those foundations will only backfire—making the task of authoritarian powers that much easier.”

 

3. In Suez Canal, Stuck Ship Is a Warning About Excessive Globalization

The New York Times · by Peter S. Goodman · March 26, 2021

I think it will be damn hard to be the globalization genie back in the bottle.

Excerpts: “Three-fourths of all container ships traveling from Asia to Europe arrived late in February, according to Sea-Intelligence, a research company in Copenhagen. Even a few days of disruption in the Suez could exacerbate that situation.

If the Suez remains clogged for more than a few days, the stakes would rise drastically. Ships now stuck in the canal will find it difficult to turn around and pursue other routes given the narrowness of the channel.

Those now en route to the Suez may opt to head south and navigate around Africa, adding weeks to their journeys and burning additional fuel — a cost ultimately borne by consumers.

Whenever ships again move through the canal, they are likely to arrive at busy ports all at once, forcing many to wait before they can unload — an additional delay.

“This could make a really bad crisis even worse,” said Alan Murphy, the founder of Sea-Intelligence.

If the Suez blockade lasts for two weeks, as many as one-fourth of the containers that would normally be in European ports could be stalled.

 

4. Negotiating [Im]plausible Deniability: Strategic Guidelines for U.S. Engagement in Modern Indirect Warfare

ndupress.ndu.edu · March 19 2021

Another important contribution to the discourse on irregular warfare, political warfare, gray zone, indirect approach, etc...

Conclusion: “Concerns that the use of indirect attacks might disadvantage liberal democracies and incentivize them to adopt undemocratic and opaque policies to strengthen their position in geopolitical competition are misguided. Our analysis suggests that this mode of competition actually requires strengthening U.S. democratic principles rather than abandoning them. First, U.S. adversaries seek to exploit the deep polarization and mistrust in U.S. politics to advance their agendas, suggesting that efforts to build a more resilient, democratic society would also help undermine meddling by external actors. Second, by giving policymakers the space to respond deliberatively rather than capriciously, indirect attacks present an opportunity for liberal democracies to reduce tensions. Policymakers must seize this space to pursue diplomatic initiatives and to invest in tools for better understanding the systemic and cumulative effect of these indirect attacks in order to hold adversaries accountable, but without leading to escalation. In doing so, indirect attacks may actually reduce the level of conflict in the international system and reinforce the importance of democracy for peace in the world.” 

 

5. U.S. wages psychological war on Moscow - Russian defense adviser

Reuters · by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Andrew Osborn · March 25, 2021

Isn't this why Gerasmiov wrote about New Generation or Non-Linear Warfare that we have come to know as the Gerasimov? He believed that it was the US fomenting instability around the world (e.g., Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, etc) to justify US military intervention.

See Charles Bartles' excellent article: "Getting Gerasimov Right" 

Excerpt: “A new type of warfare... is starting to appear. I call it, for the sake of argument, mental war. It’s when the aim of this warfare is the destruction of the enemy’s understanding of civilizational pillars,” Ilnitsky, who advises Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, told the Spas TV channel.

Here are some excerpts from the Latvia Defence Academy summarizing the Gerasimov doctrine/New Generation Warfare. Non-linear Warfare. Little Green Men.

As a result, it follows that the main guidelines for developing Russian military capabilities by 2020 are:

i. From direct destruction to direct influence;

ii. from direct annihilation of the opponent to its inner decay;

iii. from a war with weapons and technology to a culture war;

iv. from a war with conventional forces to specially prepared forces and commercial irregular groupings;

v. from the traditional (3D) battleground to information/psychological warfare and war of perceptions;

vi. from direct clash to contactless war;

vii. from a superficial and compartmented war to a total war, including the enemy’s internal side and base;

viii. from war in the physical environment to a war in the human consciousness and in cyberspace;

ix. from symmetric to asymmetric warfare by a combination of political, economic, information, technological, and ecological campaigns;

x. From war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in national life.

Thus, the Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battlespace is the mind and, as a result, new-generation wars are to be dominated by information and psychological warfare, in order to achieve superiority in troops and weapons control, morally and psychologically depressing the enemy’s armed forces personnel and civil population. The main objective is to reduce the necessity for deploying hard military power to the minimum necessary, making the opponent’s military and civil population support the attacker to the detriment of their own government and country. It is interesting to note the notion of permanent war, since it denotes a permanent enemy. In the current geopolitical structure, the clear enemy is Western civilization, its values, culture, political system, and ideology.

 

6.  Re-Budgeting for a Right-Sized International Counterterrorism Posture

thecipherbrief.com · by Matthew Levitt · March 18, 2021

Key point - tools cannot direct strategy.

Conclusion: "After twenty years of investing in exquisite and unique counterterrorism tools, America now risks falling behind the times by virtue of allowing tools to direct strategy. Seeking to avoid this classic disconnect between ends and means, policymakers on both sides of the political aisle are pressing for a rationalization of American’s counterterrorism posture around the world. Making this happen will demand that the White House urgently oversee and direct the necessary budgetary review to disentangle counterterrorism intelligence budgets from the kinetic military budgets on which they are currently grafted."

 

7. Pentagon linguist pleads guilty to exposing U.S. intelligence sources to Hezbollah

CBS News · by Caitlin Yilek

Human beings are hard to figure out. I guess there are people looking for love in all the wrong places. (Johnny Lee): 

 

But this incident would appear to cause great damage.

Excerpts: “That changed after Soleimani was killed by the U.S. The man was "very emotional and upset about the U.S. airstrikes, especially the death of [Soleimani], and he started to ask Thompson to provide 'them' with information about the human assets that had helped the United States to target" the Iranian commander, the court documents said. "Thompson understood 'them' to be Lebanese [Hezbollah]."

Thompson believed that if she did not pass on the classified information that her relationship with the Lebanese national "would come to an end" and he "would not marry her."

She then began accessing national defense information that she did not have a need to access or know and showing her notes containing the secret information to the man, the documents said. She handed over true names, personal identification data, background information and photos of clandestine human sources, and also passed on details of U.S. targets, court documents said.

 

8. New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers · March 27, 2021

Wow. Now this is a conspiracy theory.

New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China

• Florence de Changy has been reporting and investigating MH370 since 2014
• The plane went missing on March 8, 2014, with the mystery never solved
• But the French author argues that the 'mystery' itself is the greatest con of all 
• In the 400-page book, de Changy argues that current theories are off the mark, and that there has been a combined effort to cover the truth of what happened
• Instead, she suggests the plane could have been downed by the US Air Force in an attempt to intercept the plane and confiscate cargo en-route to Beijing 

 

9. America Needs to Rediscover Strategic MacGyverism

The National Interest · by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands · March 27, 2021

Realism, constructivism, etc, and now "Strategic MacGyverism."

Excerpts: “Confronted with the fact that America had been missing in action in the world’s most important soft-power fight—the race to deliver coronavirus vaccines to the developing world—the administration turned to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Although the Quad’s original purpose was to regulate maritime security, it will now combine U.S. biotechnology, Indian production, Japanese financing, and Australian logistics to provide one billion doses of vaccine to Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, there are rumblings about an initiative to repurpose the Group of 7—a democratic forum focused on macroeconomic issues—as a tech coalition to deal with the pressing challenge of Chinese hegemony in the world’s telecommunications networks. That’s the sort of dexterity the United States needs.

New administrations often take months to methodically review policies and lay out long-term plans. That approach makes sense for a “superpower marathon” that won’t be settled for decades. But the pivotal phase of U.S.-China competition is arriving now. America needs a farsighted strategy to stay ahead of China throughout this century, but first needs to avoid losing crucial battles this decade.

Fortunately, the United States has the power and the historical precedent to turn things around. In the early-1980s, at the climax of the Cold War, Americans relied on a B-list actor to blunt a surge of Soviet aggression and carry the United States to victory. Now as a second cold war heats up, the United States should look to another subpar celebrity for guidance. The MacGyver Doctrine is ugly and uninspiring, the geopolitical equivalent of duct tape. But it is fast, effective, and quintessentially American.”

 

10. 'Things really are very bad' — Biden navigates cyber attacks without a cyber czar

Politico · by Natasha Bertrand

Excerpts: “Recognizing the massive task at hand in coordinating a national cybersecurity strategy, kicking out hackers and protecting government agencies against future attack, the White House has begun to warm to the creation of the NCD office, people familiar with the deliberations said — particularly because the office will be able to access resources, review budgets, and build a staff of up to 75 people to implement a national strategy in a way the NSC can not.

But deconfliction is still an issue. One option now being explored is to have Neuberger serve in both roles, and be dual-hatted as deputy national security adviser and National Cyber Director, said two people familiar with the discussions.

King said he would be opposed to that structure. “To say you’re going to make someone a NSC senior staff person and the NCD — I don't think that works. I hope they don't do that.”

Wherever the White House lands on this, a decision needs to be made soon, experts said.

“The NCD is needed to work the day-to-day deconfliction and institutionalize plans for preventing and, when that fails, responding to the next crisis,” Spaudling said. “And the next crisis could be tomorrow, so time is not on our side.”

 

11. War is Changing. So Should the Pentagon’s Budget

defenseone.com · by Scott Cooper

Excerpts: “Finally, budget planners should shift more manpower spending to fund enterprise digital platforms and applications that automate management, analysis, and auditing of the department’s administrative and financial information, thereby harnessing modern technology to drive effective, data-driven personnel and fiscal decisions.

Software is as important as any hardware. The Russian SolarWinds hack of 2020 is an example of the fact that we have not yet come to terms with the very real vulnerabilities of our computer systems. Chinese military doctrine calls for attacking U.S. command and intelligence systems, satellites, navigation systems, and even the American electrical power grid — such as was done this year in Mumbai. The universal opposition of the Defense Department to the license application of Ligado to build a 5G mobile communications network because it would “cause unacceptable operational impacts to the warfighter and adversely affect the military potential of GPS by negatively impacting GPS receivers” shows how crowded the electromagnetic spectrum is, how vulnerable it is to interference, and that investments must be constantly made to maintain the ability to use the spectrum.

Leaders in the Pentagon and Congress should identify and answer our true operational weaknesses. The United States is a global leader in software, data, and digital tools. It’s time the commander in chief and lawmakers ensure we harness them for national security.”

 

12. Malign or benign? China–US strategic competition under Biden

eastasiaforum.org · by Jia Qingguo · March 28, 2021

A view from an academic in China:

Conclusion: “Although the Biden administration’s approach to strategic competition is quite different from the Trump administration’s, it does not necessarily follow that China–US relations will stabilize and improve. How the Biden administration actually deals with the thorny issues between the two countries is yet to be seen. It will also depend on how China responds to US actions. Given the strong negative pubic sentiments toward each other, and their increasingly divergent domestic political practices, a truly benign strategic competition still remains difficult if not impossible to achieve.”

 

13. Prosecutors struggle with consistent story in cases involving Capitol riot

Stars and Stripes

Excerpt: "Authorities are still combing through a sea of evidence in what they say is likely the most complex investigation ever prosecuted by the Justice Department."

 

14.  Chronicles of an American Diplomat: John Quincy Adams

classicsofstrategy.com · by Patrick J. Garrity

Excerpts: “Boston was roiled between those supporting and those opposing efforts to retaliate by imposing significant economic restrictions on Britain, which in the opinion of the Federalists would likely lead to war. John Quincy reported to his father about these debates in Boston. Adams (father and son) agreed that British depredations were unacceptable, but opposed extreme retaliatory measures, such as the sequestration of British debts, which they deemed both unjust and likely to be ineffective. They believed that diplomacy was the best of bad choices and therefore supported Washington’s decision to appoint a special envoy to Britain, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Jay, to try to settle outstanding differences.

John Quincy’s views about American foreign policy were widely circulated outside Massachusetts. They found an especially appreciative audience in the presidential residence. Through these writings and personal meetings, President Washington had clearly formed a favorable opinion of the younger Adams. John Adams was careful not to promote his son, but it seemed likely that John Quincy would soon be rewarded with some official duty. He was — but it was an entirely unexpected position, which would determine the whole pattern of his life thereafter.

President Washington appointed John Quincy as Minister Resident to the Dutch Republic, one of America’s few overseas diplomatic posts—and did so during a time of grave national security crisis.”

 

15. Under Biden, Diplomacy Is an Attractive Career Again

The New York Times · by By Pranshu Verma· March 27, 2021

Excerpts: “In an interview, Ms. Spears said that she would not discourage diplomats of color from joining the Foreign Service, but that they should be aware that issues of race in the State Department were hard to change. 

A new president was not likely to solve the issue, she added.

“This isn’t an administration thing,” she said. “A lot of this is systemic, it’s behavioral, and it’s passed down from management.”

Uyen Vong, whose parents immigrated from Vietnam, said that she was applying to become a diplomat, in part because she felt the “new administration brings a lot of hope to people who were marginalized in the past.” She said she believed her family’s immigrant experience would be a powerful display of the country’s values. “I can represent America,” Ms. Vong said, “and I very much represent American values.”

Ms. Vong, who took the February Foreign Service exam, said that she was encouraged by Mr. Biden’s decision to make diversity a priority for the State Department, but acknowledged that there was “still more to be done.”

She said that State Department officials must cultivate diplomats as early as in high school and that more minority candidates must be promoted into higher-profile roles.

“When you see more faces that look like you,” she said, “I think it definitely will bring more people to work in public service.”

Interest in becoming a diplomat has grown, and President Biden’s outreach to other nations is appealing to aspiring diplomats, many of whom felt alienated by Trump policies.

 

16. Stop asking the US military to fight terrorism and rebuild countries

Business Insider · by Charli Carpenter

Excerpts: “The distinctions between civilian and combatant, between battlefield and home front and between unlawful combatant and POW rightly become irrelevant within such an architecture.

This was the world before 9/11; before then-President George W. Bush declared "war" on a band of criminals; before Congress authorized the use of force without due process against anyone, anywhere suspected by the US to be a threat; and before the U.S. military was erroneously tasked with transnational law enforcement, nation building and operational support in the world's various civil wars.

To be sure, where useful, members of the US military might be deployed under UN auspices to support peacekeeping missions. US special forces could become a useful adjunct for Interpol and/or any country willing to try alleged terrorists under universal jurisdiction.

But the military as an institution is not equipped to orchestrate the building of nations or effectively police transnational crime, nor should it be entrusted with these tasks. The attitude underpinning Pede and Hayden's article is itself an example of why.”

 

17. U.S.-China sanctions battle escalating under Biden with focus on Xinjiang abuses

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

 

18. US-Taiwan coast guard partner to blunt potential Chinese invasion

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 28, 2021

 

----------------

"One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill

 

 "What we do stems directly from what we believe."

- Millicent Fenwick

 

"A belief doesn't have to be true to be highly motivating, and it is one of the bitterest lessons of history that false or irrational beliefs are often the most powerful of all." 

-Dr. Mardy Grothe

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden’s Great North Korea Mistake: Pushing China to ‘Solve the Problem’

2. Analysis | North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next?

3. Biden can't afford to laugh-off Kim Jong Un's provocations

4. Joe Biden and North Korea: A Crisis Coming Soon?

5. North Korea Doubles Down on Nuclear Weapons Plan After Biden’s Salvo

6. North Korea is installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires along its border with China

7. North calls Biden criticism of missile test a 'provocation'

8. Seoul repeatedly says ‘firing being analyzed’ after Pyongyang’s missile firing

9. Biden warns N. Korea, while Moon wants to “talk”

10. N.K. paper stresses local economy as 'cornerstone' of national development

11. Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected

12. Which Korean military unit is the strongest?

 

1. Biden’s Great North Korea Mistake: Pushing China to ‘Solve the Problem’

The National Interest · by Michael Rubin · March 25, 2021

I think the reaffirmation of the "closer than lips and teeth" PRC-DPRK alliance recently is intended to directly counter the line of effort that is likely being considered in the new Korea policy. China will not contribute to solving US and ROK security challenges.

And of course the subtitle is correct: there is not silver bullet in dealing with north Korea.

 

2. Analysis | North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next?

The Washington Post · by Patricia M. Kim · March 27, 2021

The three challenges:

1. The U.S. and South Korea don’t fully agree on North Korea policy
2. China and Russia are added complications
3. The U.S. has few credible options left to coerce North Korea

A sobering conclusion: "These significant challenges to allied and regional coordination and the implementation of an effective North Korea policy suggest that the Biden administration and its counterparts are in for a difficult ride with Pyongyang — one that, barring a radical diplomatic intervention, will probably lead to a North Korea with greater nuclear and missile capabilities."

 

3. Biden can't afford to laugh-off Kim Jong Un's provocations

Business Insider · by Harry Kazianis

I recommend the administration attack the regime's strategy. Expose its long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy. I don't think any substantive negotiations can occur as long as Kim Jong-un thinks his strategies will achieve success (as they have for seven decades). Until we show Kim his strategies do not work he will continue to follow his current and historical regime playbook. If we want to negotiate with Kim we have to force him to recognize that he cannot play his long con with us.

 

4. Joe Biden and North Korea: A Crisis Coming Soon?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 27, 2021

If there is a crisis it will be the result of Kim Jong-un decision making and not US action.

But this is quite an accusation against the President:

“After his press conference, we now know that President Biden is thinking about Korea. Despite his contrary claim, it almost certainly is not his top priority. However, the latest North Korean missile tests require the administration to think seriously about how to engage the DPRK. While denuclearization might remain the president’s top priority, it should not be his only priority. Much good could be done while taking even a lengthy path toward denuclearization that never reaches its official objective.

​I do agree that denuclearization should not be the President’s top priority. - The Top priority for the Biden and Moon administrations should be achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance ROK/US alliance interests in Northeast Asia. That begins with resolving the "Korea question."​

 

5. North Korea Doubles Down on Nuclear Weapons Plan After Biden’s Salvo

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

This is such classic north Korean "diplomacy." It is deliberately stoking tensions as part of blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions.  The regime's actions and intent are so obvious. Why do we not call them out on it? We have to do so to make this strategy fail and force him to adopt a new one - ideally one that would be based on substantive working level negotiations and in accordance with the norms and standards of the international community. The only way north Korea can become a responsible member of the international community is by jettisoning its seven decades old strategy and concepts of operation. 

 

6. North Korea is installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires along its border with China

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · March 28, 2021

Just think this through. There is no doubt the regime fears the Korean people more than the US. Imagine how much electrical power it must take to keep this barrier electrified. Most of north Korea does not have 24 electrical power. Why are the Korean people suffering? Because of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy choices.

 

7. North calls Biden criticism of missile test a 'provocation'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

Again, classic north Korea actions. But why don't the press and pundits take this to the logical conclusion and expose the regime's bankrupt strategy and how we are complicit in the success of its strategy by our actions or non-actions? And the most important action is to attack the regime's strategy.

 

8. Seoul repeatedly says ‘firing being analyzed’ after Pyongyang’s missile firing

donga.com · March 26, 2021

The Korean military and intelligence communities are in a tough position trying to toe the Moon administration's peace agenda line of effort.

 

9. Biden warns N. Korea, while Moon wants to “talk”

donga.com  · March 27, 2021

Probably the single most difficult friction point in the ROK/US alliance is the different strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime (apologies to the horse for beating it so much).

 

10. N.K. paper stresses local economy as 'cornerstone' of national development

38north.org · by Jack Liu · March 26, 2021

Yes but....

The only way for the local economy to work is to allow market activity but the regime is shutting that down.

 

11. Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected

38north.org · by Jack Liu · March 26, 2021

Hmmm.... a new submarine?

 

12. Which Korean military unit is the strongest?

koreaherald.com · by Lim Jang-won · March 24, 2021

Hmmm... should be entertaining especially for those of us who served with these soldiers and sailors. 

 

“One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill

 

 "What we do stems directly from what we believe."

- Millicent Fenwick

 

"A belief doesn't have to be true to be highly motivating, and it is one of the bitterest lessons of history that false or irrational beliefs are often the most powerful of all." 

-Dr. Mardy Grothe

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Top general: Afghan forces need US troops to fight Taliban

2. FDD | Iran must come clean on its nuclear deception

3. United States Seizes Websites Used by Foreign Terrorist Organization

4. Opinion | Biden faces the world’s most dangerous problems in North Korea and Taiwan

5. US Army, Marines, Special Forces Eye Israeli ‘Hero’ Attack Drones

6. Officials Describe Special Operations Forces (SASC hearing 25 March 2021)

7. Why there will be no ‘Asian NATO’

8. SOCOM Shifting To Great Power Competition Strategy, But Needs More ISR Capabilities, Commander Says

9. How the Defense Department Can Move from Abstraction to Action on Climate Change

10. It's National Medal of Honor Day and Alwyn Cashe still doesn't have his

11. Rep. Andy Kim On State Department Racism: 'My Own Government Questioned My Loyalty'

12. Why Is U.S. National Security Run by a Bunch of Benchwarmers?

13. House lawmakers voice concern over how to address extremism in the military without clear data

14. Biden rallies old alliances behind new mission: Challenging China

15. Lawmakers Investigate State Department Over $1 Billion Ransom Payment to Iran

16. How an Alleged Russian Spy Ring Used Cold War Tactics

17. U.S. military launched over 2 dozen cyber operations before 2020 election

18. Special Operations team in Pacific will confront Chinese information campaigns

19. Is China About to Deploy Private Military Companies in Central Asia?

 

1. Top general: Afghan forces need US troops to fight Taliban

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · March 25, 2021

Excerpt:

Pressed by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) on whether he has presented the Biden administration with options to continue addressing counterterrorism threats in the region if U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, Clarke demurred.

“There's been no decision made for Afghanistan, so I think it would be a hypothetical to know what we're going to do at this time,” Clarke said. “But we will always provide options for the Department of Defense.”

 

2. FDD | Iran must come clean on its nuclear deception

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg · March 25, 2021

Excerpts:

Preventing undeclared nuclear activities is a fundamental nonproliferation principle that is supported by Republicans and Democrats. If the Biden administration returns to the JCPOA without resolving the problem of Iran’s undeclared activities, it would send a dangerous message and green light Tehran to advance a clandestine nuclear weapons program. North Korea will be taking notes given its own unresolved nuclear activities, and countries eying expanded nuclear programs, like Saudi Arabia, may learn the same lesson. A nuclear arms race in the Middle East could follow.

President Biden should deliver a clear message: There will be no sanctions relief for Iran without a full accounting. There should be no going back to a nuclear deal based on nuclear deception. To delude himself otherwise, Biden would repeat the mistakes of the past and slowly unravel the NPT framework, leading to a more dangerous world with more countries with nuclear weapons.

 

3. United States Seizes Websites Used by Foreign Terrorist Organization

justice.gov · March 25, 2021

 

4. Opinion | Biden faces the world’s most dangerous problems in North Korea and Taiwan

The Washington Post – by David Ignatius - March 25, 2021

Excerpt: Since Anchorage, Chinese think tanks have been using a phrase that means “hit, hit, talk, talk” to describe what’s ahead with the United States, according to one top sinologist. The “hit, hit” part of that formula carries significant risks — especially if China continues to believe that a weakened America isn’t ready to fight back.

 

5. US Army, Marines, Special Forces Eye Israeli ‘Hero’ Attack Drones

breakingdefense.com · by Arie Egozi

 

6. Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing – USSOCOM CDR

defense.gov · by David Vergun

When the transcript is publicly available I will forward that. The most important point made in this hearing came from General Clarke:

And then the last thing I'd -- I would hit in this area is the specific authority for our forces conduct unconventional warfare in this space. While I can take specific points in a closed session, that authority that allows us to work with -- with partner forces to increase both the resistance and resilience, working in the information space is absolutely critical.

But here are a few of the key excerpts from the hearing (implies a resistance operating concept for Taiwan).

HAWLEY: Good. Well I look forward to working with -- with you on that. General Clarke, let me come to you. The Baltic nations have spent some years honing their ability to conduct irregular warfare in the event that Moscow attempts to -- to seize a Baltic territory, so it won't be able to hold it. It's become a key part of their deterrence strategy, as you know, in the Baltic region.

I'm -- what I'm wondering -- why I'm asking about this is do you wonder, do you -- do you think that the Baltic model could be applied in Taiwan? In other woods -- words, would helping Taiwan improve its irregular warfare capabilities help it deter potential Chinese aggression?

CLARKE: Senator, bottom line, yes. We have worked closely with the Baltics. I have met with every Baltic SOC (ph) commander personally, and we have been engaged in the Baltics for a long time. But we also -- and I can talk more specifically in closed hearing, we remain close with capabilities for Taiwan.

HAWLEY: Do you think that it would be helpful to us, and should we be prioritizing helping Taiwan develop its irregular warfare capabilities?

CLARKE: Yes, Senator, I do think we should help them.

Key point here. According to the ASD SO/LIC he will continue to directly report to the SECDEF for civilian oversight and administrative control (ADCON) of SOF but the SECDEF is relooking iof the ASD SO/LIC should report to USD(P) on policy issues.

Mr. Maier, again what's the status today at the Department's assets to empower ASD SOLIC and what additional resources or authorities do you believe we need from the Congress?

MAIER: Thank you, Chairman.

So the current status is one that is SOLIC as a standalone organization both its policy components and its service secretary like our 922 component outside of OSD (ph) policy. Secretary Austin and Deputy Secretary Hicks are relooking that to see that continues to make sense.

I think one of the potential options is to determine a way to better integrate the policy components that were removed from SOLIC towards the end of the last administration back more integrated into policy but under no circumstances am I aware of any COAs that are being discussed that would remove the Service Secretary-like responsibility from remaining a principal staff assisting and a direct report up to the Secretary of Defense so I think your legislation has been very clear in that point.

As to progress to date, we continue to make progress I think on building the capability, in many cases in the form of expertise and people on the components in that administrative chain of command so the SSO or Secretary for Special Operations that was explicitly directed in the '21 NDAA is something we build to about 40 people at this point, and it includes a cross-section of expert from the budgeting world, the legislative world, the acquisitions world, really the -- if you will the nascent or core group of people that will perform that Service Secretary-like function.

But we are not at the point Chairman, of irreversible momentum at this point and we're not on the point of having something that is probably sufficient to do the roles that have been described in the -- in multiple NDAAs at this point.

Last thing I will say is, I do think the relationship with Special Operations Command is very strong. One of the things that General Clarke and I benefited from of having worked together on multiple occasions in the past, and I think that leadership connection helps to insure our staffs are proceeding in that direction of collaboration, partnership, and civilian-military relationships.

General Clarke has somewhat different views on 922. - ASD SO/LIC as an advocate for SOF - he seems to minimize the civilian oversight role

TUBERVILLE: Thank you.

General Clarke, Section 922 of the 2017 N.A. -- NDAA, which was signed into law by President Obama, made clear that the administrative chain of command for the Special Operations community runs from the president, to the secretary of defense, to ASDSOLIC, and then to you, the SOCOM commander. Prior to conducting congressional engagements, do you obtain approval from ASDSOLIC?

CLARKE: Mr. Secretary (sic), we work very closely with ASDSOLIC for -- to -- in the administrative chain of command for oversight, particularly for our budget and our acquisition. Mr. Maier and his predecessors provide that oversight. But it's also clear that my chain of command -- and Secretary Austin made this very clearly to me -- that my chain of command as a combatant commander runs to the secretary of defense, to the president.

TUBERVILLE: Yeah, thank you. And that's kind of my next question. Do you -- do you support the implementation of the law, and specific -- specifically, ASDSOLIC's absolute control over administrative matters such as legislative engagements, budgetary resource decisions, acquisitions, public affairs, personnel, legal accountability and other related authorities held by the traditional military service?

CLARKE: Senator, what -- what I believe is a key role for ASDSOLIC is actually to be an advocate for SOCOM, you know, within the department. And so when decisions are made about services and service budgets and service, you know, personnel decisions, having ASDSOLIC in the room to be able to be that advocate for us to me is the most important aspect that ASDSOLIC can do for SOCOM. You know, that goes back to the old adage: If you're not -- if you're not -- if you're not at the table, you become the lunch. And having ASDSOLIC in -- in and at that table, which -- which has occurred, has been very helpful.

TUBERVILLE: Thank you.

Mr. Maier, as I noted a moment ago, the law mandates that the administrative chain of command for SOCOM passes from the president, secretary of defense, ASDSOLIC, SOCOM commander. In the light of the clear chain of command, have you met with the secretary on administrative matters related to SOCOM?

MAIER: Senator, yes, I have, and I participate in the secretary's regular service secretary meetings. I also participate, or my staff participate in the series of governance meetings that the deputy secretary runs in order to do just as -- was already said by General Clarke, to both advocate, but for the administrative chain of command. We are responsible for both setting direction and ensuring execution and implementation consistent with the law.

TUBERVILLE: How often do you all meet, do you think?

CLARKE: The service secretaries meet at least twice a month. Obviously new administration, so different series of meetings. But every day, sir, there's meetings that I'm representing (inaudible) in that service secretary-like hat with the secretary, deputy secretary or their direct reports.

​Excellent to see General Clarke discuss conventional warfare here:​

BLACKBURN: Thank you -- thank you, Mr. Chairman. And General Clarke, thank you for the time and the conversation yesterday. We talked about 40 percent of SOCOM's forces are aligned to support the great power competition fight. That is a big increase.

So for the record today, I'd like for you to talk about the resourcing standpoint -- what do you need from this committee in terms of authority, advocacy, what do you need to engage in near peer competition from Beijing, and then let's talk a little bit about the posture that SOCOM has to counter these nefarious activities from the CCP, and where you are positioned there.

I think you can really do more with a lower dollar amount than the regular force. So love to just get your comments for the record.

CLARKE: Senator, thank you. You know, as pointed out, with about two percent of the Department of Defense budget, I think we are a very good return on our investment, with about three percent of the force. And the continued resourcing, specifically, you know, for SOCOM, so that we can modernize in the -- in this area, where -- where we can, you know, provide unique capabilities for our forces is critical. We have to balance both operations, readiness and modernization. The -- and -- the -- the continued support of this committee remains critical.

As we look at -- you -- you specifically asked about our employment and our capacity at 40 percent. That is exactly right. We -- we have in fact adjusted our forces to a sustainable presence against, you know, the persistent terrorist threats while at the same time rebalancing those forces across the globe.

As some of our near -- you know, some of our competitors are now global threats and not necessarily specific to Europe -- Europe or INDOPACOM. And so we continue to look where our forces are located across the globe so they can -- so they can counter, you know, those specific threats.

And then the last thing I'd -- I would hit in this area is the specific authority for our forces conduct unconventional warfare in this space. While I can take specific points in a closed session, that authority that allows us to work with -- with partner forces to increase both the resistance and resilience, working in the information space is absolutely critical.

 

7. Why there will be no ‘Asian NATO’

asiatimes.com · by Ken Moak · March 26, 2021

We tried NEATO, SEATO, CENTO. The conditions, cultures, politics, are very different in Asia than in Europe. We need a Quad and more importantly a Quad plu. But it cannot be an Asian NATO. And one of the major differences is that the Quad focus should be based on diplomatic, informational. and economic instruments as the main focus (and perhaps the economic instrument as the priority) that rests on a foundation of security cooperation but without an "alliance structure" and certainly without a combined military command structure.

 

8. SOCOM Shifting To Great Power Competition Strategy, But Needs More ISR Capabilities, Commander Says

news.usni.org · by John Grady · March 25, 2021

Great Power Competition in the space between peace and war (gray zone):

• Competition equals Political Warfare
• Most likely
• State on state warfare less likely
• Most dangerous
• We must be able to operate in the modern era of the Gray Zone and Political Warfare – Irregular Warfare
• But we must also support major theater state on state war –     
• not either/or but both/and

America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them

With no apologies to Trotsky

 

9. How the Defense Department Can Move from Abstraction to Action on Climate Change

warontherocks.com · by Samuel Brannen - Sarah Ladislaw - Lachlan Carey· March 26, 2021

Excerpts:

While it may seem hard to believe now, in time climate change may be the most formidable and unpredictable adversary the Department of Defense has ever faced. U.S. adversaries typically have motivations that can be scrutinized and resource limitations that can be exploited. Their actions can be deterred. Runaway climate change would be merciless. The planet has no regard for borders or conventions or theaters of war. The changing climate will affect every aspect of life on Earth, and by extension, every facet of America’s strategic operating environment. In some instances, it will amplify existing security risks, while in others it will force the national security apparatus to consider new risks entirely. It will drain resources from military readiness and modernization within Defense Department budgets and as tradeoffs are made to fund other federal priorities in response to climate change.

Protecting the nation’s interests means proactively building a long-term climate action strategy with other branches of government, segments of society, and global partners — a theme ably picked up on by the newly released Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. It means more than hardening assets and bolstering resilience but building strategies to prevail in this new and uncertain future. Like many other entities in both the public and private sectors, the Department of Defense has been thinking about climate change as one item in a long list of global challenges, but not as the dominant global trend that will frame all other issues. The Biden administration’s early charge to make climate change a central priority gives the Department of Defense an opportunity to better understand a future that will create compounding stresses and challenges affecting its future as much if not more than a rising China.

 

10. It's National Medal of Honor Day and Alwyn Cashe still doesn't have his

taskandpurpose.com · by Haley Britzky · March 25, 2021

What are we waiting for? We need to get this done and properly honor this American hero.

 

11. Rep. Andy Kim On State Department Racism: 'My Own Government Questioned My Loyalty'

NPR · by Ari Shapiro · March 25, 2021

Hmmm... While this may be the Congressman's experience, we have Ambassador Sung Kim as the Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific, former Special Envoy for north Korea and US Ambassador to South Korea. We have Dr. Jung Pak as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific. I know many Korean-American Americans working on Korean (and other) national security issues at State, Defense, and other government agencies.

I do not want to minimize the issue at all. I know it exists and I have heard this. I have also known many Americans who did not have a desire to work on issues of the country of their heritage and would rather not be compartmented into working such issues.

 

12.  Why Is U.S. National Security Run by a Bunch of Benchwarmers?

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · March 25, 2021

Benchwarmers? I would not use that to describe the professionals I know who continue to serve in our government.

That said, yes we need to get all these positions filled. I just don't think we need to insult all the professionals to make the point. But it makes for a great clickbait title.

 

13. House lawmakers voice concern over how to address extremism in the military without clear data

Stars and Stripes

We do need to know the extent of the problem in order to solve it.  

 

14. Biden rallies old alliances behind new mission: Challenging China

Axios · by Dave Lawler

Our alliances are a critical source of power and influence.

 

15. Lawmakers Investigate State Department Over $1 Billion Ransom Payment to Iran

freebeacon.com · by Adam Kredo · March 25, 2021

Uh Oh. I had not seen any reporting on this.

 

16. How an Alleged Russian Spy Ring Used Cold War Tactics

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-an-alleged-russianspyring-used-cold-war-tactics-11616701381?mod=flipboard – by Georgi Kantchev

How an Alleged Russian Spy Ring Used Cold War Tactics

Prosecutors say group in Bulgaria was tasked to gather classified information on NATO military alliance, CIA

 

17.  U.S. military launched over 2 dozen cyber operations before 2020 election

Axios · by Jacob Knutson

 

18. Special Operations team in Pacific will confront Chinese information campaigns

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · March 25, 2021

Excellent development. I was not aware of this.

The Joint Task Force Indo-Pacific team will be focused on information and influence operations in the Pacific theater, a part of the world receiving much the military’s attention because of China’s growing capabilities.

The team is poised to work with like-minded partners in the region, Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of Special Operations Command, said before the Armed Services Committee. “We actually are able to tamp down some of the disinformation that they [China] continuously sow,” he said of the task force’s efforts.

 

19. Is China About to Deploy Private Military Companies in Central Asia?

jamestown.org · by Paul Goble · March 25, 2021

Interesting question and development.

 

"The printing press is the greatest weapon in the armoury of the moden commander..."

-  T.E. Lawrence, The Evolution of a Revolt, 1920

 

"If one wishes to influence American foreign policy, the time to do so is in the formative period, and the level is the middle level of bureaucracy – that of the assistant secretary and his immediate advisers.  That is the highest level in which people can still think.  Above that, the day to day operation of the machine absorbs most of the energy, and the decisions that are made depend very much on internal pressures of the bureaucracy."

- Henry Kissinger, Bureaucracy and Policy Making (1968)

 

"War in the age of technological integration and globalization has eliminated the right of weapons to label war and, with regard to the new starting point, has realigned the relationship of weapons to war, while the appearance of weapons of new concepts, and particularly new concepts of weapons, has gradually blurred the face of war. Does a single "hacker" attack count as a hostile act or not? Can using financial instruments to destroy a country's economy be seen as a battle? . . .Obviously, proceeding with the traditional definition of war in mind, there is no longer any way to answer the above questions. When we suddenly realize that all these non-war actions may be the new factors constituting future warfare, we have to come up with a new name for this new form of war: Warfare which transcends all boundaries and limits, in short: unrestricted warfare."

- Unrestricted Warfare, Beijing, 1999

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Six North Korean Soldiers Cross River Border to Escape to China

2. It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea

3. North Korean Survey Reveals More than 100 Deaths, 13,000 ‘Suspected’ COVID-19 Cases in One Province

4. North Korean border guards in Chagang Province seen wearing gas masks

5. U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launch as 'destabilizing'

6. Joint task force cracks down on users of illegal cell phones in Hyesan

7. Moon slams North Korea’s missile test amid efforts for dialogue

8. Court awards damages from North, Kim Jong-un

9. North Korea Gives Biden a Missile Test—a Familiar Hello

10. US labeling mishap of ‘East Sea,’ ‘Sea of Japan’ fuels debate

11. As North Korea plots revenge over ‘spy’ extradited to US from Malaysia, assassinations and abductions may be next

12. N Korea confirms missile tests as Biden warns of response

13. South Korea should join the Quad: Korea Herald writer

14. Asking China to Solve the North Korea Problem Is Completely Foolish

15. Kim Jong Un aims his missiles at Biden

16. U.S. will 'respond accordingly' to North's escalation of tensions: Biden

17. N.Korean Spy on Trial 'Was Kim Jong-un's Liquor Runner'

18. New KN-23 ballistic missile to boost N. Korea's tactical nuclear capabilities: experts

19. ‘Business as Usual’: North Korea Restarts Ballistic Missile Tests

 

1. Six North Korean Soldiers Cross River Border to Escape to China

rfa.org

While everyone is focused on north Korean provocations (reported cruise missile and SRBM launches) I want to flag this incident (and some other recent ones) to make sure we continue to observe the indications and warnings for possible internal instability.

As we were working on the original planning for north Korean instability and regime collapse in the 1990's Bob Collins and I tried to determine what were the key conditions that would lead to internal instability and regime collapse. The two were the loss of the ability for the regime/party to govern all of north Korean territory from Pyongyang combined with the loss of coherence of and support by the military.  One of the early indicators of the loss of coherence would be small unit military defections/escapes.  While we have long seen individual soldiers try to escape it is a significant escalation of potential instability when (small) units do so together. There can be many reasons for the escape but the fact that a group of soldiers can conspire and act indicates conditions may be making them desperate to act and the three chains of control and command are breaking down - the first chain is the tradition military chain from general to private, the second chain of control is the political chain, and the third chain of control is the security chain.  When you combine this with other reports of CVOID outbreaks and other instability indicators it is imperative that the military and intelligence communities be alert for indications and warnings of instability along with indications and warnings of provocations and attack.

I am not predicting imminent collapse or that even the regime will eventually collapse. Kim continues to impose draconian population and resources control measures in the name of COVID mitigation but with the intent to crack down on anti-regime actions and potential resistance.  I will predict that if it does collapse it will be catastrophic. Therefore, we need to be as ready for this contingency as any of the others, most importantly because the conditions that lead to instability and collapse could lead to Kim Jong-un making the decision to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force under his rule to ensure survival of the regime.  Yes, I can be accused of being a chicken little screaming the sky is falling or the boy who cried wolf.  I will gladly accept all criticism if none of these scenarios play out.  But I am a worst case planner.

 

2. It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea

Foreign Affairs · by Eric Brewer and Sue Mi Terry · March 25, 2021

If we embark on arms control negotiations we are agreeing to north Korea as a nuclear power and that it will keep its nuclear weapons.  We need to recognize that we are making a deliberate decision to allow the north to be a nuclear power.  If that is what we are willing to do I would offer that we should answer two key questions:

What do we want to achieve in Korea?

What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

I would also ask given what we assess to be the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime, would an arms control agreement alter the answers to these two key questions?

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has (or will ever) abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has (or will) abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

All that said, I would not be opposed to arms control negotiation if (and only if) it was a line of effort as part of a superior form of a political warfare strategy that was focused on solving the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests.  

Conclusion:

An arms control approach might well meet the same fate as other failed U.S. strategies for dealing with North Korea, but the Biden administration should still test whether it can work. Last year was one of North Korea’s toughest since the famine of the 1990s. The measures that Kim took to save his country from COVID-19—including closing the border with China—did more economic damage than sanctions have done. Kim has not been easily swayed by economic pressure in the past, but it is possible he is desperate enough for sanctions relief—and confident enough in his existing nuclear and missile capabilities—that he would trade some limits on his weapons programs for a significant reduction in sanctions.

Such a strategy would not be risk free, and just because arms control aims for less doesn’t mean it will be any easier to achieve. Unlike the distant objective of total denuclearization, a limited arms control agreement would force tough, near-term tradeoffs with other U.S. policy goals. But given the failure of existing approaches, arms control is at least worth a shot. As long as Biden doesn’t make premature sanctions concessions in return for empty North Korean promises, the worst that can happen is that his administration winds up back where it started with the current containment regime.

 

3. North Korean Survey Reveals More than 100 Deaths, 13,000 ‘Suspected’ COVID-19 Cases in One Province

rfa.org

Of course, this is unvetted and so we must take this with a grain of salt.  We should be grateful to Radio Free Asia for being able to provide this kind of reporting from its contacts within north Korea.  But it is plausible and if true it could have dire consequences for the regime.  Another reason why we need to continue to observe for the full spectrum of indications and warnings from attack to provocation to internal instability.

 

4. North Korean border guards in Chagang Province seen wearing gas masks

dailynk.com – by Jang Seul Gi - March 25, 2021

Another unusual indicator.

Interesting:

Soldiers in the border buffer zone in Chunggang-eup, Chagang Province, were recently seen wearing full gas masks instead of medical masks. According to a source in the area, North Korean authorities ordered soldiers stationed on the border to wear gas masks to prevent infection by COVID-19 variants.

A source in Chagang Province told Daily NK on Mar. 24 that “soldiers started wearing gas masks on Mar. 15,” adding that “[The military] gave the gas mask order because the COVID-19 variant is different from ordinary viruses in that it is a ‘protein poison’ [RNA virus], so regular masks won’t filter it out.”

...

A North Korean defector familiar with the situation in North Korea said that “From what I heard, suspected COVID-19 cases have increased so much that [patients] can no longer be quarantined in [existing medical] facilities.” He further said that “It appears that North Korea is overreacting beyond the bounds of common sense because the pandemic has become so difficult to control.”
 

5. U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launch as 'destabilizing'

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 26, 2021

We should not forget this is a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. These are actions that are not taken by responsible members of the international community.

Excerpt: "The United States condemns the DPRK's destabilizing ballistic missile launches. These launches violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions and threaten the region and the broader international community," a department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an email.

 

6.  Joint task force cracks down on users of illegal cell phones in Hyesan

dailynk.com – by Ha Yoon Ah - March 26, 2021

Not surprising.  We estimate there are 6.5 million smartphones in north Korea.  These are key for passing on economic information about market activity but obviously they are used for other things (passing on information, providing "funds" through the electronic transfer of cell phone minutes, and of course viewing K-dramas and other media from outside north Korea as well as smuggling and trafficking).

 

7. Moon slams North Korea’s missile test amid efforts for dialogue

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · March 26, 2021

The question is are these missile launches enough to cause the Moon administration to reevaluate its strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime?

 

8. Court awards damages from North, Kim Jong-un

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

This is good to see.

The buried lede here is that there are Koreans from the South actively supporting the Kim family regime to include those affiliated with the Moon administration.

Excerpts:

 

Following their successful lawsuit, Han and Noh requested that the Foundation of Inter-Korea Cooperation –– which since 2005 has collected royalties from South Korean companies using copyrighted North Korean materials on behalf of the North Korean state television service KCTV –– pay them the damages.   

The foundation is led by Im Jong-seok, President Moon Jae-in’s former Chief of Staff and current Special Advisor for Foreign Affairs and Special Envoy to UAE.   The accrued royalties, which totaled 1.6 billion won in 2018, are under court administration due to ongoing international sanctions against the North.   

 

9. North Korea Gives Biden a Missile Test—a Familiar Hello

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-gives-biden-a-missile-testa-new-but-familiar-hello-11616682497 - by Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong

Of course, the tests may only be because they are necessary to advance their capabilities.  And if there are new capabilities, the regime did tell us they were developing new ones.

But as I have written I think we have to assesses these launches in the context of all statements and actions and in my opinion this is all about making the new Biden Korea policy DOA and to set the conditions for Kim's demand for sanctions relief if the Biden Administration want to move forward with negotiations of any kind.

I have previously provided a laundry list of potential responses.  I recall being a crisis action planning on the UNC/CFC/USFK staff back in the 1990 we used to generate responses across the elements of national power (even those outside the purview of the military element - we always tried to offer a holistic approach because reliance on one instrument is always insufficient.). I am sure the panners in Korea have quote a menu of options for recommendation.

 

10. US labeling mishap of ‘East Sea,’ ‘Sea of Japan’ fuels debate

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · March 26, 2021

I recall the time in 1997 or 1998 when we replaced all maps in current with the updated WGS 84 version. I was called on the carpet by a Korean general because it had the Sea of Japan on it as well as the Yalu river (which is the Chinese name for the river - the Korean name is Amnokgang). He demanded I get them replaced with corrected versions.  Of course, I could not meet his demand.

 

11.  As North Korea plots revenge over ‘spy’ extradited to US from Malaysia, assassinations and abductions may be next

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3126937/north-korea-plots-revenge-over-spy-extradited-us-malaysia – by Amy Chew

Extensive comments from me below (as well as my friend and National War College colleague Zach Abuza).

 

12. N Korea confirms missile tests as Biden warns of response

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · March 26, 2021

A "new" weapon: "KCNA quoted top official Ri Pyong Chol, who supervised the test, as saying that the new weapon’s development “is of great significance in bolstering up the military power of the country and deterring all sorts of military threats existing on the Korean Peninsula.”

 

13. South Korea should join the Quad: Korea Herald writer

straitstimes.com · by Robert J. Fouser · March 26, 2021

Concur.

Excerpts:

President Biden has put the Quad at the centre of his efforts to contain China's rising influence. On March 13, the leaders of the Quad held their first virtual summit and wrote an op-ed piece for the Washington Post.

The article focused on cooperation among the four nations on climate change and distributing Covid-19 vaccines.

Though the article did not mention China, the four leaders rejected the Chinese authoritarian model by stating, "We recommit ourselves, once again, to an Indo-Pacific region that is free, open, secure and prosperous."

Surely South Korea shares these goals. In the article, the four leaders invited other nations to join them. South Korea should accept the invitation immediately, not just out of national interest, but as an expression of its values as a leading democracy.

 

14. Asking China to Solve the North Korea Problem Is Completely Foolish

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 25, 2021

I do agree with Mr. Bandow. We cannot expect China to solve the national security problems of the ROK and US.

I think the recent reinforcement of the PRC-DPRK alliance this past week is one indicator that if the new Biden Korea policy relies on Chinese assistance then it is doomed to fail.  I think the renewal of the alliance is one indication the Chinese and the Kim family regime are working in concert to try to make the new policy DOA.

 

15. Kim Jong Un aims his missiles at Biden

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · March 25, 2021

Blackmail diplomacy: The use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.  A line of effort of the regime's political warfare strategy.

 

16. U.S. will 'respond accordingly' to North's escalation of tensions: Biden

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Accordingly. We must demonstrate strategic reassure and strategic resolve.  That must be the foundation upon which the Biden Korea policy will rest.

 

17. N.Korean Spy on Trial 'Was Kim Jong-un's Liquor Runner'

english.chosun.com

A liquor runner? Does one put that on his resume?

 

18. New KN-23 ballistic missile to boost N. Korea's tactical nuclear capabilities: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 26, 2021

We still need to see accurate reporting on what systems were employed on Sunday and Thursday this week.

 

19. ‘Business as Usual’: North Korea Restarts Ballistic Missile Tests

csis.org · by Victor Cha · April 1, 2021

Like the scorpion and the frog.  north Korea is like a scorpion - "it is my nature."

 

"The printing press is the greatest weapon in the armoury of the moden commander..."

-  T.E. Lawrence, The Evolution of a Revolt, 1920

 

"If one wishes to influence American foreign policy, the time to do so is in the formative period, and the level is the middle level of bureaucracy – that of the assistant secretary and his immediate advisers.  That is the highest level in which people can still think.  Above that, the day to day operation of the machine absorbs most of the energy, and the decisions that are made depend very much on internal pressures of the bureaucracy."

- Henry Kissinger, Bureaucracy and Policy Making (1968)

 

"War in the age of technological integration and globalization has eliminated the right of weapons to label war and, with regard to the new starting point, has realigned the relationship of weapons to war, while the appearance of weapons of new concepts, and particularly new concepts of weapons, has gradually blurred the face of war. Does a single "hacker" attack count as a hostile act or not? Can using financial instruments to destroy a country's economy be seen as a battle? . . .Obviously, proceeding with the traditional definition of war in mind, there is no longer any way to answer the above questions. When we suddenly realize that all these non-war actions may be the new factors constituting future warfare, we have to come up with a new name for this new form of war: Warfare which transcends all boundaries and limits, in short: unrestricted warfare."

- Unrestricted Warfare, Beijing, 1999

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

​1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

3.Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

5. Iran's alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

 

1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

Axios · by Mike Allen

 

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin Bilms · March 25, 2021

An important essay today.

America must embrace its irregular warfare capabilities and be able to compete in Great Power Competition where dominant ' 'fight" is best described as political warfare.  Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare (and by DODD 3000.7 and the IW annex to the NDS consists of CT, FID, UW, COIN< and stability operations).

Although I am heartened by the author citing some of Bob Jones important work on unconventional deterrence I am disappointed he did not point out one of the most important sentences in the interim guidance: "We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions." Unconventional warfare is the foundation of irregular warfare and conventional warfare is at the root of the two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the second being the comparative advantages of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indefgeigenous forces and population.

 UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) un.

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of a population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it is an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP.

I am heartened to see the Biden administration use unconventional warfare when there are so many antibodies out there against it.

But I also commend Congress for providing the best description of irregular warfare that will never be adopted by the doctrine gatekeepers on the Joint Staff.  In the 2018 NDAA it wrote: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

 

3. Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

I wonder if some poor congressional staffer will be fired for providing bad information to a Congressman.

 

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts: “While NGI remains in development, “our overall missile defense and defeat posture can be reoriented to regional threats, specifically that of complex and integrated air and missile attack from the likes of China,” Karako said.

After weeks of defense officials warning that North Korea could re-start its missile testing program after a long hiatus, the country’s reclusive leader, Kin Jong-Un, ordered a test firing of what a Biden administration official called a “short-range” missile system last weekend. The official, speaking with reporters late Tuesday, said the missile type isn’t subject to U.N. Security Council resolutions. Because it falls under the threshold of what concerns the international community, the official said that “it probably gives you an indication of where it falls on the spectrum of concern.”

The Missile Defense Agency has estimated that testing of the NGI could happen by the mid-2020s, and if all goes well they could begin to be put into silos by 2028.

 

5. Iran's alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

Sure it seems far-fetched. But that is what analysts thought in 1995 when the Al Qaeda laptop was captured in Manila that described plans to kill the Pope and POTUS, bomb aircraft in flight (which did happen to a Northwest Airlines flight that had to make an emergency landing in Okinawa after a small device exploded), and use commercial aircraft to fly into buildings in the US.

As Sun Tzu said, "Do not assume the enemy will not attack.  Make yourself invincible."

 

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

longwarjournal.org · by Caleb Weiss · March 23, 2021

Are we paying attention?

 

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

I strongly believe in our alliance structure. 

 

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 24, 2021

Video at the link.

 

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

The National Interest · by Chad Wolf · March 21, 2021

I understand we are down to about 50 Confucius Institutes from about 105. I am not sure if that is correct but I recently saw those numbers discussed.

We have to strike the right balance between academic freedom, protecting our values, and effectively employing our soft power for influence, and China's nefarious activities using all means available to do damage to the US way of life.

 

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · March 24, 2021

We have not been sufficiently effective in stopping this scourge so we have to do better.

 

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

The National Interest · by Gordon G. Chang · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “China now has a crisis. “Once it slips below 1.5, a country falls into the trap of low fertility and is unlikely to recover,” said He Yafu to the Communist Party’s Global Times. China is already well below that figure.

Beijing does not believe China’s population will begin to decline until 2028. Some believe it in fact began contracting in 2018, something evident by falling births.

In any event, as the official China Daily stated in December, “the trends are irreversible.”

That’s not good for the People’s Republic of China. As analyst Andy Xie wrote in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post this month, “Population decline could end China’s civilization as we know it.”

 

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

sof.news · by Pat Carty · March 24, 2021

 

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

eastasiaforum.org · by Larry Diamond · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States and its liberal democratic allies, such as Australia, Canada, the European Union and hopefully Japan, must work through diplomacy and aid flows to preserve civil society groups and independent media. These democracies will have more impact if they coordinate their activities and prioritise the diffusion of technologies to help democrats evade digital surveillance and censorship. In some instances — and sadly for Hong Kongers — established liberal democracies may need to provide a temporary or even long-term home for democrats at risk.

In the near term, the priority may need to be containing the democratic retreat and countering the rise of authoritarian China. In some countries, this means just trying to keep democrats alive. But the growing demands of young people in the region for more open and accountable government offer hope that this authoritarian moment will have an expiration date.”

 

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 24, 2021

Hmmm...not a good look for the regiment.

 

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

pna.gov.ph · by Priam Nepomuceno · March 24, 2021

 

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

AP · by Jim Gomez · March 21, 2021

Excerpt: “The militants have been considerably weakened by years of military offensives, surrenders and battle setbacks but remain a national security threat. They set off a security alarm in the region in recent years after they started venturing away from their jungle encampments in Sulu, a poverty wracked Muslim province in the largely Roman Catholic nation, and staged kidnappings in Malaysian coastal towns and targeted crews of cargo ships.”

 

-------------------

 

"Deterrence is still fundamentally about influencing an actor's decisions. It is about a solid policy foundation. It is about credible capabilities. It is about what the U.S. and our allies as a whole can bring to bear in both a military and a nonmilitary sense."

- C. Robert Kehler

 

"Deterrence works.  Until it doesn't." 

- Sir Lawrence Freedman

 

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

 - General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea's missile launch may be timed to precede Biden's first press briefing: NIS

2. S. Korea deeply concerned about N. Korea's projectile launch: NSC

3. Gov't Becomes Craven Lackey of N.Korean Dictatorship

4. Clarity, not ambiguity

5. How dangerous is North Korea's military arsenal right now?

6. U.S. to Deal with N.Korea 'from Position of Strength'

7. Russian FM calls for efforts to keep peace on peninsula after N.K. missile launches

8. How Kim Jong Un keeps advancing his nuclear program

9. Missiles fly after US nabs North Korea operative

10. Human Rights Will Continue to Polarize Washington and Seoul on North Korea

11. North Korea Positioning Itself to Play 'Nuclear Blackmail'

12. North Korea lambastes 'human rights clown show' after U.N. resolution

13. Report: Missiles fired by North Korea may have been displayed at parade

14. US touts renewed military drills after 'low-end' North Korean

15. Concerns over rights issue

16. U.S. focused on denuclearization of N. Korea: Pentagon spokesman

17. Biden administration will host Japan and South Korea for North Korea discussions

 

1. N. Korea's missile launch may be timed to precede Biden's first press briefing: NIS

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · March 25, 2021

Hmmm....Okay, at least someone is trying to connect the dots. But I do not think the regime's actions are that tactical.  I think the totality of actions are more strategic and focused on undermining the forthcoming Biden Korea policy as well as the long held effort to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.

I think Kim will be disappointed that the White House press corps will focus on the wide range of other issues and the missile launches will not be the priority since the most likely response from POTUS will be that we are finalizing our Korea policy and it would be premature to discuss it at this press conference.

 

2. S. Korea deeply concerned about N. Korea's projectile launch: NSC

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 25, 2021

I hope this contributes to being a wake-up call for the Moon administration and there is an admission of their erroneous strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

 

Kim does not share President  Moon's vision of a Peace agenda.

 

3. Gov't Becomes Craven Lackey of N.Korean Dictatorship

english.chosun.com

Brutal criticism of the Moon administration (and some about the US for leaking information!).  Again, I hate to beat the dead horse but it is time for the Moon administration to re-evaluate its strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. More sound assumptions would not only prevent this criticism but would prevent the actions that lead to this criticism.

 

4. Clarity, not ambiguity

The Korea Times · by Shim Jae-yun · March 24, 2021

I concur that strategic clarity is needed in Korea. We need absolute clarity about the nature, objectives and strategy of the Kim family regime.  But I disagree with everything else in the author's essay.  We can gain clarity by answer these key questions:

Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) through a superior form of political warfare and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

 

5. How dangerous is North Korea's military arsenal right now?

CNN · by Brad Lendon

Do not underestimate north Korea.  But Kim Jong-un is not 10 feet tall.  There is no doubt we have the military capability to not only defeat but destroy the nKPA.  However, if we employ a superior form of political warfare we can achieve the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests.

 

6. U.S. to Deal with N.Korea 'from Position of Strength'

english.chosun.com

The only way to deal with north Korea is from a position of strength. That is the only thing that deters north Korea.  However, it is not only military strength that is necessary - we need the strength of all elements of national power to be applied to the problem of the Kim family regime.  The regime will exploit weakness and any hint of appeasement or of providing concessions to the regime will be assessed as successful political warfare and blackmail diplomacy and will cause the regime to double down and make more demands from the ROK, the US, and the international community.

 

7. Russian FM calls for efforts to keep peace on peninsula after N.K. missile launches

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 25, 2021

Beware Russia as a spoiler.

Some interesting comments: “Touching on the launches, Chung said he expressed "deep concern."

"South Korea and Russia agreed to continue close communication and cooperation for progress on the Korean Peninsula peace process," Chung said.

"I also asked for Russia to continue to play a constructive role going forward," he added.

Also in his press statement, Lavrov stressed that Russia is interested in an "open and inclusive" forum for regional cooperation -- in what appears to be a rebuke of the United States' push to cement the Quad forum involving Australia, Japan and India.

Noting that Chung has reaffirmed Seoul's invitation for Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit here, Lavrov said that the two sides decided to discuss the matter when the COVID-19 situation stabilizes.”

 

8. How Kim Jong Un keeps advancing his nuclear program

Stars and Stripes · by Jon Herskovitz · March 24, 2021

If something is your number one priority and you are willing to commit all resources to it, to include those that should be to provide for the welfare of the Korean people in the north, of course you are going to be able to advance your nuclear problem.

 

9. Missiles fly after US nabs North Korea operative

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · March 24, 2021

Again I am glad to see the press and pundits trying to connect the dots.  The Malaysia extradition and eventual trial of Mun Chol Myong will be a significant event since it hits directly at the Kim family regime's global illicit activities network that feeds the royal court economy. 

However, I do not think the regime is launching missiles merely to show displeasure with the extradition.  It is part of its larger political warfare strategy.

But as noted we need to become more aggressive in going after the regime's global illicit activities and those who operate and support the network.

 

10. Human Rights Will Continue to Polarize Washington and Seoul on North Korea

The National Interest · by Jason Bartlett · March 24, 2021

Very true. This will continue to be an going point of alliance friction until the two allies agree that human rights is not only a moral imperative but is a national security issue because Kim jong-un must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to survive and remain in power.  Not only is focusing on the suffering of the Korean people the right thing to do, it is a critical line of effort in a combined political warfare strategy (to include information and influence activities)  to solve the "Korea questions." (Para 60 of the Armistice).

And this article also illustrates why the ROK and US must sufficiently align their strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

 

11. North Korea Positioning Itself to Play 'Nuclear Blackmail'

news.usni.org · by John Grady · March 24, 2021

Yep!

Excerpts: “During the Hudson event before the latest tests, Evans J.R. Revere, retired State Department official and senior director of the Albright Stonebridge Group, said, Kim “was doubling down” on remaining a nuclear state by introducing threats of new weapons during the Congress. “He reminded us the DPRK [Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea] is and will remain a nuclear state.”

Kim realizes that “China will not do” much to rebuild a North Korean economy ravaged by global economic collapse, major storms and tightening international sanctions, though economic improvement would secure Kim’s hold on power. The North Korean leader also knows the message he sends Beijing about remaining a nuclear power is not in its interest either, Brooks said.

Kim “was doubling down” on remaining a nuclear state by introducing threats of new weapons, Evans J.R. Revere, a retired State Department official and senior director of the Albright Stonebridge Group, said during the event.

I take slight exception to General Brooks' comments about China and north Korea's economy.  China has tried to get the north Koreans to adopt Chinese style economic reforms for decades but the regime has always pushed back against it because it would lead to the undoing of the regime.  (It also pushes back on ROK engagement as well).  But if it were to adopt Chinese style economic reforms I would bet the Chinese would provide substantial economic aid to rebuild the north Korean economy. (but of course there is also the huge corruption issue inside north Korea that prevents any kind of normal functioning economy).

And per Evans Revere's last comment below about arms control negotiations: that will be assessed as a win for Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.”

 

12. North Korea lambastes 'human rights clown show' after U.N. resolution

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 24, 2021

The regime is deathly afraid of any focus on human rights.  It is an existential threat to the regime. When we focus on its nuclear program we reinforce its legitimacy.  When we focus on human rights we undermine it.

 

13. Report: Missiles fired by North Korea may have been displayed at parade

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 24, 2021

Of course Kim told us he is developing new systems.  They have to test and train to advance their programs.  

But again timing is everything.  It may be they simply had to test to advance to the next step.  On the other hand the timing is very useful in trying to undermine the Biden Korea policy and try to establish conditions favorable to the regime through the use of blackmail diplomacy )the use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions).

 

14. US touts renewed military drills after 'low-end' North Korean

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 23, 2021

Yes our alliances are key to national security and consultation is critically important.  But we also have to act in concert against the common threat.

 

15. Concerns over rights issue

The Korea Times · March 24, 2021

Again, in addition to sufficient alignment of strategic assumptions, the alliance must get on the same sheet of music regarding human rights.

 

16. U.S. focused on denuclearization of N. Korea: Pentagon spokesman

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 24, 2021

I think we are going to be arguing about these phrases for some time to come. Which I think is a good thing because the debate helps us to expose Kim Jong-un's strategy. Sun Tzu said: "Thus, what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy"

We can (and must) always argue the two key points. - north Korea has not lived up to its promises to denuclearize the entire Korean peninsula (1992 - north-South Agreement on Denuclearization and all subsequent agreements on denuclearization) while the South and he US have.  And second, the north remains in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions on weapons of mass destruction, ballistic missiles, human rights, proliferation, cyber activities, and global illicit activities.

 

17. Biden administration will host Japan and South Korea for North Korea discussions

Axios · by Sarah Mucha

 

-------------

"Deterrence is still fundamentally about influencing an actor's decisions. It is about a solid policy foundation. It is about credible capabilities. It is about what the U.S. and our allies as a whole can bring to bear in both a military and a nonmilitary sense."

- C. Robert Kehler

 

"Deterrence works.  Until it doesn't." 

- Sir Lawrence Freedman

 

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

 - General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. ‘Land Forces Are Hard To Kill’: Army Chief Unveils Pacific Strategy

2.  Russia, China and the United States: First Shots

3. Opinion | China Doesn’t Respect Us Anymore — for Good Reason

4. China exploits US-Philippine strategic weakness

5. Army revamping how it positions, maneuvers global force as it faces an assertive China

6. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran build ties as U.N. friends feud with U.S.

7. US sounds support for Philippines in dispute over loitering Chinese fishing vessels

8. Blinken and Sullivan stand up to China — will Biden back them up?

9. Asian American Lives and Livelihoods Don't Just Deserve Our Qualified Support

10. More Than a Few Good Women: Improving Hemispheric Security by Advancing Gender Inclusivity in Military and Police

11. America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy

12. Strike squad of just 100 Brit Marines smashed 1,500 US troops in war games drill

13. Veteran Navy SEAL eyes 2022 U.S. Senate run in Georgia

14. China Lashes Out at U.S. Allies in Bid to Thwart Biden Strategy

15. How the U.S. Should Respond to China's Belt and Road

16. Expand, Consolidate, Centralize: Organizational Reform in the Next National Security Strategy

17. When It Comes to Strategy, People Are Everything

18. Introducing the Irregular Warfare Initiative

19. Prosecutors allege Oath Keepers leader and Proud Boys coordinated before Capitol attack

 

1. ‘Land Forces Are Hard To Kill’: Army Chief Unveils Pacific Strategy

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Maybe they will survive but I expect the CSA will receive a lot of incoming fire over this idea that ground forces are survivable in INDOPACOM.

The 39 page CSA paper on Army Multi-Domain Transformation: Ready to Win in Competition and Conflict can be downloaded here.

What strikes me from the graphic below showing the 2 star Multi Domain Task Force is that there are no ground maneuver forces (e.g., infantry or armor).

 

2. Russia, China and the United States: First Shots

geopoliticalfutures.com · By George Friedman · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Could a Russo-Chinese alliance launch a naval assault in the east and a ground attack in the west simultaneously? Perhaps. But doing so, while politically shocking, would not weaken either front because it would be engaging naval forces not needed in the west and ground forces not needed in the east. It may also fail. If it succeeded, it would trigger existential (nuclear) choices or create unshakeable anti-Russia and anti-China alliances.

The more logical and less risky move is for China to reach a political and economic agreement with the United States, and for Russia to do the same, at least with Europe. But to do this, each must be convinced that the U.S. is not interested in a settlement. Showing a lack of interest is the foundation of any bargaining position. The best read is that the U.S. knows that bargaining is coming and is therefore posing as hostile to it. The Chinese have called the Americans’ bet. The Russians shortly will. At any rate now is the time for insults and threats, before we get down to business that may fail regardless of all this.”

 

3. Opinion | China Doesn’t Respect Us Anymore — for Good Reason

The New York Times · by Thomas L. Friedman · March 23, 2021

Excerpt:  “Whenever I point this out, critics on the far right or far left ridiculously respond, “Oh, so you love China.” Actually, I am not interested in China. I care about America. My goal is to frighten us out of our complacency by getting more Americans to understand that China can be really evil AND really focused on educating its people and building its infrastructure and adopting best practices in business and science and promoting government bureaucrats on merit — all at the same time. Condemning China for the former will have zero impact if we’re not its equal in all of the latter.”

 

4. China exploits US-Philippine strategic weakness

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · March 24, 2021

Which should not be a surprise. But is it only because the interim strategic guidance did not mention the Philippines as an ally?

 

5.  Army revamping how it positions, maneuvers global force as it faces an assertive China

Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olsen · March 24, 2021

 

6. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran build ties as U.N. friends feud with U.S.

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · March 23, 2021

The teams are lining up on each side of the playing field getting ready for the big game.

Excerpt: “Among the primary tenets of the group are the "non-interference in the internal affairs of States, peaceful settlement of disputes, and to refrain from the use or threat of use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, as enshrined in the UN Charter."

The Biden administration, for its part, has also been busy shoring up its alliances and partnerships. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conducted an Asia tour ahead of the Alaska talks with China, and both have also spoken out in support of the Cold War-era NATO military coalition, comprised today of 30 countries.

Blinken met Tuesday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and, among other major issues, discussed "concern over Russia and China's malign activity and disinformation efforts."

"We will stand resolutely against Russian aggression and other actions that try to undermine our Alliance, and I think that that approach is exactly where NATO is as well," Blinken said. "And similarly, we have to and we will, I believe, make sure that NATO is also focused on some of the challenges that China poses to the rules-based international order, that is part of the 2030 vision as well."

 

7. US sounds support for Philippines in dispute over loitering Chinese fishing vessels

Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · March 24, 2021

 

8. Blinken and Sullivan stand up to China — will Biden back them up?

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · March 23, 2021

I am pretty sure they were doing so with the President's backing already.

 

9. Asian American Lives and Livelihoods Don't Just Deserve Our Qualified Support

rand.org · by Douglas Yeung, Peter Nguyen, and Regina A. Shih

Excerpts: “Many who would stand with the Asian American community, including President Biden, have spoken up to offer their support. But too often this amounts to just words, particularly when they invoke a separate justification for that support. Transactional arguments reinforce the notion that Asian Americans are not independently worthy of support absent some self-interested motive. Truly meaningful support would affirm our inherent value and humanity, freeing us from playing a part in someone else's movie.

If Asian Americans are to be truly seen as a diverse community rather than a monolith, as both a long-standing and constantly-refreshed part of the American story, support for our lives and livelihoods must be unconditional. This requires taking action that is specifically meant to benefit Asian Americans—no matter our population size, not just along the way of benefiting someone else.”

 

10. More Than a Few Good Women: Improving Hemispheric Security by Advancing Gender Inclusivity in Military and Police

cfr.org · by Paul J. Angelo

Conclusion: “Building lasting solutions to these challenges begins by acknowledging the unique and consequential contributions of women to the provision of security. In the United States, following President Joe Biden’s announcement of General Richardson’s nomination, a conservative television commentator derided the supposed feminization of the U.S. military. His comments inspired quick and far-ranging rebuke, including from the Pentagon’s most senior leaders who unanimously extolled the importance and necessity of women in uniform. The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean would be wise to follow this example as they endeavor to get a handle on the scourge of violent crime that has beset the region. Women’s security is human security, and it is well past time that women have full and equal participation in protecting their communities and countries.”

 

11. America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Let’s not take this line of argument too far. A country that has suffered 540,000 deaths (and counting) from Covid-19 can hardly crow about brilliant performance. The pandemic has laid bare some deeply disturbing things about American polarization and political dysfunction. But it also reminds us that U.S., whether in global wars or a global pandemic, has traditionally been a second-half team: It starts slowly and then pours it on through a mix of ingenuity and sheer resources.

The pandemic demonstrates that the combination of private-sector innovation and occasionally enlightened government policy can still produce amazing results. Not least, it shows that first impressions are often misleading: Histories of World War II written in February 1942 wouldn’t have been very favorable to the U.S.

Covid-19 still has some nasty surprises, perhaps in the form of deadly mutations, in store for America and the world. But from here on out, it’s less likely to reveal crippling U.S. weaknesses than to advertise the country’s still-imposing strengths.”

 

12. Strike squad of just 100 Brit Marines smashed 1,500 US troops in war games drill

The Sun · by Jerome Starkey · March 19, 2021

Hmmm,...

Excerpts:

“The £400million drill in California had to be cut short because the British victory was so swift and unexpected.

Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter, told The Sun yesterday: “This has overturned the principles of war. Mass is no longer the asset it once was — it is all about effect. If you concentrate your force, you are vulnerable.

“On the modern battlefield you want maximum dispersion to give your opponent maximum doubt.

 

13. Veteran Navy SEAL eyes 2022 U.S. Senate run in Georgia

ajc.com · by Greg Bluestein

 

14.  China Lashes Out at U.S. Allies in Bid to Thwart Biden Strategy

Bloomberg · by Bloomberg News · March 23, 2021

This should be an indicator that we are on the right track with our focus on allies. It is a threat to the PRC.

 

15. How the U.S. Should Respond to China's Belt and Road

cfr.org  by Jacob J. Lew, Gary Roughead, Jennifer Hillmanm and David Sacks

The 190 page report can be downloaded here.

 

16. Expand, Consolidate, Centralize: Organizational Reform in the Next National Security Strategy

thestrategybridge.org · March 24, 2021

Can an NSS do all of this? Pretty ambitious.

Conclusion: “Still, U.S. officials can do more, and they should propose more reforms in the next National Security Strategy. They should solidify the initial steps taken by the Biden administration and make these new members statutory for all future administrations. The U.S. should look at ways to deepen coordination and cooperation with non-governmental organizations and businesses. The administration should further centralize national security planning wherever possible, regardless if such changes require either an expansion of power, personnel, or resources at the National Security Council. History shows that organizational reform remains critical to the strategic success of a country in the face of unprecedented challenges. The architects of the next National Security Strategy should learn this now, rather than later.”

 

17. When It Comes to Strategy, People Are Everything

warontherocks.com · by Morgan Plummer · March 24, 2021

Personnel is policy and strategy too!

Conclusion: “If the United States doesn’t “get there first,” how will it react and adapt to that new reality? If the United States can’t “buy not build” everything that it needs, how will it fill the capability gaps that will, inevitably, remain? Will there ever be a system of business processes that allows the United States to “get there fast” enough in an age of digital revolution? Although each technology-based theory currently employed is necessary, they do not assure future victory because they largely ignore the precious commodity most underutilized by the Department of Defense: human capital. A human capital-focused strategy for defense modernization is not just additive — it serves as a hedge against the strategic uncertainty innate to all the others. All other theories assume the strategic flexibility of a talent pool that the Defense Department has named, the National Security Innovation Base, but is still failing to meaningfully access. Sacrificing vital investments in people, the fountainhead of American innovation and creativity, for improved processes or to exclusively fund technological wonders that will be outdated almost immediately after development, is a critical error. In the past, the United States employed technology as the mantric answer to all questions related to maintaining superiority in an increasingly multi-polar world. In an age where ideas and technologies go global at the press of a button, the department’s old incantations are insufficient. At best, technology, by itself, is an outdated and incomplete answer to a barely understood question. A national defense strategy focused on people, both inside and outside the Department of Defense, doesn’t just complete the answer to our great national questions. It is the answer.”

 

18. Introducing the Irregular Warfare Initiative

mwi.usma.edu · by Jacob N. Shapiro · March 24, 2021

Outstanding initiative.

 

19. Prosecutors allege Oath Keepers leader and Proud Boys coordinated before Capitol attack

CNN · by Katelyn Polantz

Sigh....

 

------------

 

“The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the ‘Dear Leader Absolutism’ dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one’s mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People.”

- Hwang Jang Yop (father of north Korean Juche ideology), 2 DEC 99

 

"We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions."

-2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance 

 

"Nothing contributes so much to tranquilize the mind as a steady purpose--a point on which the soul may fix its intellectual eye."

- Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley, in "Frankenstein" (1818)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korea conducts first weapons test of Biden's presidency

2. North Korea fires short-range missiles in challenge to Biden administration

3.  Pyongyang missile test a ‘mild’ challenge to Biden

4. S.Korea Keeps Hands off N.Korea Rights Resolution

5. N. Korea fired two cruise missiles off west coast Sunday: JCS

6. Pro-N.K. paper says verbal message between leader Kim, China's Xi signals stronger relations

7. Overseas traders express disappointment at North Korea's failure to "protect" Mun Chol Myong

8. Two Storm Corps soldiers suffer major injuries after stepping on landmine

9. North Korea denounces 'psychotic' EU for rights sanctions

10. Defense ministry opens new war remains identification center

11. U.N. adopts resolution on N.K. human rights for 19th consecutive year

12. After Landmark Extradition, North Korean in US Court on Money Laundering Charges

13. Petulant Pyongyang Ticks Off Putrajaya

14. Fact check: Did Kim Jong Un call Joe Biden a thug during a speech?

15. The North Korean-Syrian Partnership: Bright Prospects Ahead

 

1. North Korea conducts first weapons test of Biden's presidency

CNN · by Zachary Cohen, Oren Liebermann, Barbara Starr and Kevin Liptak · March 23, 2021

Here is the buried lede for Korea watchers: 

“Senior administration officials said Tuesday that the policy review is in its "final stages" and that Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, would host his Japanese and South Korean counterparts next week in Washington to discuss the matter in depth.”

As I have written I hope when the announcement of the new policy is made it includes the nominations of the new Special Representative for north Korea, the new Special Envoy for north Korean human rights, the new US Ambassador to the ROK, and the new US military commander in Korea (UNC/ROK/US CFC/USFK).  Personnel is policy.

But it is this humorous comment that is troubling and if this kind of thinking prevails and influences the Biden team we will continue to be outplayed by Kim and his long con, his political warfare strategy, and his blackmail diplomacy.

“Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, which specializes in open-source intelligence, told CNN on Tuesday that North Korea appears to have tested a coastal defense cruise missile, which he said would be "fairly routine and, all things considered, a very mild response to the US-South Korea military drill."

"On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being a test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile and 1 is Kim farting in our general direction, this is a 2," he added.

The problem I have is when pundits and policy makers look at each incident in a vacuum or isolation and they fail to connect the dots and choose not to recognize and address the north Korean strategy.  Sure we can downplay this and say the door remains open to engagement and claim this was not a ballistic missile test that did violate UN Security Council resolutions.  However, our mistake is to not look at the totality of recent events and statements.  It is clear to me that this seemingly minor test is part of an effort to ensure the new Biden Korea policy is dead on arrival and the continued effort to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. Read the statements from Kim Yo-jong and Choe Son-hui.  The recent renewal of the closer than lips and teeth PRC-DPRK alliance is a signal that the China line of effort as part of the Biden Korean policy to press it to influence north Korea is not feasible - China is siding with north Korea.

And in the end Kim is trying to shape the environment and provide Biden only one option to pursue his new policy of principled diplomacy.  Since Kim likely assesses Biden wants to implement an effective and successful foreign policy (e.g., Biden "wants it" more than Kim) any negotiation will first require a lifting of sanctions to some degree. This will be required for Kim to just agree to participate in talks.  And in addition, these recent actions and statements have the added benefit of supporting the divide to conquer line of effort of Kim's political warfare strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.

To counter this the Biden administration should expose Kim's strategy.  This is the only way to inoculate the new Korea policy and ensure it is not dead on arrival.   The Korean and American publics as well as the international community need to understand what Kim is doing.  Neither the ROK nor the US should be minimizing the north's actions and even if this seems like a minor provocation it is imperative we look at the situation holistically.  Our new approach to north Korea must include effective information and influence activities (in coordination with the ROK) and a superior political warfare strategy to be able to outplay Kim Jong-un.

 

2. North Korea fires short-range missiles in challenge to Biden administration

The Washington Post · by John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima · March 23, 2021

The Washington Post gets credit for breaking this news.

 

3. Pyongyang missile test a ‘mild’ challenge to Biden

asiatimes.com · by Paul Handley · March 23, 2021

Again, it seems like every pundit and the press want to minimize this.  Yes it was a minor test, and yes neither the South nor the US reacted.  But we are not taking a holistic approach to the totality of north Korean actions and statements and we are trying to understand Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy.

 

4. S.Korea Keeps Hands off N.Korea Rights Resolution

english.chosun.com · March 24, 2021

This is a (continued) mistake. The ROK needs to take a human rights stand against the suffering  of the Korean people in the north.  

 

5. N. Korea fired two cruise missiles off west coast Sunday: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 24, 2021

Excerpt: “He refused to disclose other details, including their exact type, flight range and apogee, only saying that South Korean and U.S. authorities have been analyzing details and closely monitoring related moves.”

 

6. Pro-N.K. paper says verbal message between leader Kim, China's Xi signals stronger relations

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 24, 2021

The only alliance partners these two countries have.  Closer than lips and teeth.

 

7. Overseas traders express disappointment at North Korea's failure to "protect" Mun Chol Myong

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · March 24, 2021

Excellent. Morale is down at the Office. Office 39 that is. The second and third order effects on the regime could be devastating.  I would argue that a focus on either generating defections or possible "turning" members of the Office could achieve some success with possible big dividends in the future.

 

8. Two Storm Corps soldiers suffer major injuries after stepping on landmine

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · March 24, 2021

Excerpt: “The military will also hold the soldiers’ company commander and political guidance officers responsible for the incident, the source said. The military leadership claims that there were problems not only with the soldiers’ careless behavior but also with the senior officials who failed to manage the situation properly.”

 

9. North Korea denounces 'psychotic' EU for rights sanctions

straitstimes.com · March 24, 2021

Kim Jong-un is personally threatened when the international community focuses on north Koran human rights.

 

10. Defense ministry opens new war remains identification center

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · March 24, 2021

Shared values.  How many other countries have facilities solely focused on identifying their war dead?

Excerpt: "With the completion of building the new identification center, the agency is expected to become the world's only organization with an integrated system that covers the whole procedure from recovery to identification," the ministry said in a release.

 

11. U.N. adopts resolution on N.K. human rights for 19th consecutive year

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · March 24, 2021

At least the UN is consistent on this issue.

 

12. After Landmark Extradition, North Korean in US Court on Money Laundering Charges

rfa.org · by Erin Ji · March 23, 2021

My comments in the article.

 

13. Petulant Pyongyang Ticks Off Putrajaya

rfa.org

This is why north Korea's diplomatic outposts are so important to the regime.  Can we build on our legal action and focus on others from Office 39 who are conducting illicit activities around the world.  If we ever want to be able to conduct a strategic strangulation campaign against Kim Jong-un we must focus on this network.

Excerpts: “It was a self-defeating move by North Korea, which has few friends. The communist state, which is led today by Kim Jong Un, has formal diplomatic ties with more than 160 countries but mostly on paper.

Only 24 countries have embassies in Pyongyang, while North Korea has a few dozen diplomatic missions abroad. Beyond serving basic functions of diplomacy, Pyongyang’s embassies have an essential function of procuring hard currency, evading sanctions, and procuring technology and luxury goods for the regime, as well documented by reports.

They are essential sources of funding – largely illicit – for the cash-strapped and constantly sanctioned government in Pyongyang. They have functioned as vehicles for the laundering of Pyongyang’s famed “super notes,” high-quality forgeries of U.S. $100 bills, as well as illegal narcotics.

The embassy in Malaysia was no exception. It was long suspected for both illicit business activity and money laundering. The embassy assisted in the marketing of North Korean military communications equipment, among other activities. But most important, the embassy was tied to the procurement of communications and computer equipment for Pyongyang.”

 

14. Fact check: Did Kim Jong Un call Joe Biden a thug during a speech?

Newsweek · by Soo Kim · March 23, 2021

 

15. The North Korean-Syrian Partnership: Bright Prospects Ahead

38 North · Samuel Ramani · March 23, 2021

There is still a pretty large axis of evil.

 

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“The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the ‘Dear Leader Absolutism’ dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one’s mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People.”

- Hwang Jang Yop (father of north Korean Juche ideology), 2 DEC 99

 

"We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions."

-2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance 

 

"Nothing contributes so much to tranquilize the mind as a steady purpose--a point on which the soul may fix its intellectual eye."

- Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley, in "Frankenstein" (1818)