News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Trust in the military is declining, while its reputation remains high, according to new survey

2.  Top US, China Officials to Meet Next Week in Alaska

3. U.S. will likely bring up Uighurs, cyberattacks, Taiwan and Hong Kong in upcoming China summit

4. America’s Protests and the CCP’s Dogma of Inevitability

5. U.S. Indo-Pacific Leaders Detail Posture to House Armed Services Committee

6. Beijing has a plethora of military options against Taiwan after 2022

7. Miller becomes longest-serving commander of Afghan War as US mulls its next move

8. Getting the Quad Right Is Biden’s Most Important Job

9. The Dire Possibility of Cyberattacks on Weapons Systems

10. U.S. Poorly Integrates COCOMs, Hasn’t Figured Out Hybrid, Hyten Says

11. Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group Destroyer Conducts Taiwan Strait Transit

12. Manchin undecided on Kahl, as nomination is in limbo

13. DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Freedom of Navigation Report

14. China’s defense budget signals will to outmatch US

15. ‘Not Enough Being Done’ to Counter China’s Growing Aggression, US Military Officials Warn

16. Friday’s Quad Summit Will Show if It’s Just a Talking Shop

17. The Future of the Quad Is Bright

18. France In The Indo-Pacific: A Mediating Power?

 

1.  Trust in the military is declining, while its reputation remains high, according to new survey

Stars and Stripes  · by Sarah Cammarata · March 10, 2021

We should be concerned and we should reflect on this. The data and graphics can be viewed here. 

 

2. Top US, China Officials to Meet Next Week in Alaska

voanews.com · by Nike Ching · March 10, 2021

This should be an interesting meeting.

 

3. U.S. will likely bring up Uighurs, cyberattacks, Taiwan and Hong Kong in upcoming China summit

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

I wonder if this will be a cordial meeting or will be filled with yelling and banging of shoes on the table? (Oops, my mistake - that is a Soviet move)

 

4. America’s Protests and the CCP’s Dogma of Inevitability

hoover.org · by Miles Maochun Yu

Our domestic instability has national security implications.

Excerpts:

“The violence and protests of the 1960s and 70s thus greatly boosted the CCP’s self-confidence in its own otherwise bankrupt communist system. As a result, China became recklessly aggressive and cantankerously provocative, dramatically increasing its military involvement in the Vietnam war against the U.S., and bringing the Soviet Union and China to the brink of a nuclear war in 1969, while in the meantime ruining the lives of millions in China—all as a result of the CCP’s ideological hubris and dogmatic adherence to a Marxist-Leninist prediction of America’s inexorable demise and socialism’s ultimate triumph.

Last summer’s chaos and violence have no doubt imposed a reputational cost on the United States, boosting the CCP’s self-confidence, thus weakening America’s global deterrence against aggression and authoritarianism in general, and its strategic realignment against Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific in particular.

 

5. U.S. Indo-Pacific Leaders Detail Posture to House Armed Services Committee

defense.gov · by Jim Garamone

Video at the link. It was unfortunate that each representative only had 5 minutes for questions so the Admiral, General, and Acting Secretary for Indo-Pacific Affairs could not answer any of the questions to any great depth.

 

6. Beijing has a plethora of military options against Taiwan after 2022

The Hill · by Lyle J. Goldstein · March 10, 2021

An ominous warning:

“All signs suggest that the PLA now has the capabilities to subdue Taiwan in a matter of weeks, if not days. Western strategists have mistakenly focused on large Chinese platforms, such as the aircraft carrier or the large amphibious attack ship, as indicators of Chinese intent on Taiwan. Yet, Chinese military planners have been working on simpler, more numerous, cheaper and better dispersed methods for breaking down Taiwan’s front, back and side doors too. Very large and highly sophisticated special operations teams would constitute the first wave, delivered by parachute, helicopter and small boats. Some of these teams would create mayhem or distraction in the rear areas of Taiwan forces, while others would move to secure small and medium ports and airfields. Nearly simultaneously, ballistic and cruise missiles, supplemented now by economical long-range mobile rocket artillery systems would demolish Taiwan’s air force, air defenses, naval bases as well as key transport and command nodes.

Biden’s new national security team needs to put Taiwan first among all its priorities. But the answer to defusing this bomb is not to reflexively pile additional kindling on these hot coals with ever more U.S. military exercises and proximate basing arrangements. It is no exaggeration to say that intervention in a Taiwan scenario could result in a devastating U.S. military defeat, or even put the planet in peril if there is a widespread resort to nuclear weaponry. American diplomats must creatively engage with both Taipei and Beijing to walk the two sides back from the brink. Hope is not a strategy and American national security planners must understand that.”

 

7. Miller becomes longest-serving commander of Afghan War as US mulls its next move

Stars and Stripes · by Phillip Walter Wellman·  March 5, 2021

I think General Miller is the only service member who is living the WWII terms of service: for the duration plus six months. I fear he may never be able to come home to enjoy those final six months.

 

8. Getting the Quad Right Is Biden’s Most Important Job

Foreign Policy · by James Mattis, Michael Auslin, Joseph Felter · March 10, 2021

Conclusion: "The Quad should complement the United States’ current hub-and-spoke alliance system, as well as multilateral organizations like the East Asia Summit, ASEAN, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The grouping will gain the most support if presented as an alignment based on shared interests and values. Linking together the largest democracies in the region to promote cooperative action among all nations sharing a similar vision for a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific may offer the best chance to channel China’s increasing power and more positively influence Asia, as well as strengthen democracy and liberalism in the world’s most dynamic region."

 

9. The Dire Possibility of Cyberattacks on Weapons Systems

Wired · by Lukasz Olejnik

Excerpts:

“Much like everything else, weapons systems will only become increasingly computerized. Soon, this will perhaps include space-based systems, or nuclear weapons systems as well. In order to protect these, policymakers and the military decision-makers should consider recommendations to put in place assessment frameworks to identify and manage the cybersecurity risks facing further computerization or interconnection built into weapons systems. A recent report from the US Cyberspace Solarium Commission advises designing a special process of assessing the cybersecurity of weapons systems. Preparing such assessment processes will require allocating substantial funds purely to technical defense. Fixing existing systems might not result in headline topics, but it may bring tangible defensive results.

The exploitation of vulnerabilities in weapons systems could bring high risks to the life of the humans operating these machines, the army who controls them, or even civilians. The far-fetched consequences may even include an armed conflict. The world would be better prepared for such a risk if we could avert a cyberattack-based compromise of weapons systems. We do not know if the world’s militaries are working towards attaining the capability of hacking adversary weapons systems. But having such powers would be dangerous to the world’s stability and peace.”

 

10. U.S. Poorly Integrates COCOMs, Hasn’t Figured Out Hybrid, Hyten Says

airforcemag.com · by John A. Tirpak · March 11, 2021

Let me ask this provocative question: Do we still need COCOMs? Are they an anachronism? Particular the regional COCOMs - do we really need them?

 

11. Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group Destroyer Conducts Taiwan Strait Transit

news.usni.org · by Megan Eckstein · March 10, 2021

 

12. Manchin undecided on Kahl, as nomination is in limbo

Defense News · by Joe Gould · March 10, 2021

Is Manchin becoming the Democrat's John McCain?

 

13. DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Freedom of Navigation Report

defense.gov

 

14. China’s defense budget signals will to outmatch US

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“So it sounds familiar to us when China announces that it is spending a certain amount on defense. Analysts will argue over the “true” figure and whether there are “defense-related” expenditures that don’t go into the official figure. And they’ll try to adjust for the fact that things don’t cost the same in China as in the US.

But it’s basically the same idea: The PLA gets a certain amount of money and has to live within its means. Just like the US military.

Or so one might think. But it’s in fact different with China. Here’s how:

In America, the secretary of defense goes to the Senate Armed Services Committee and asks: “How big is our budget this year?” The answer: “$700 billion.”

 

In China, the top dog in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) goes to the Central Military Commission (atop which sits President Xi Jinping) and asks: “How big is our budget this year?” The answer: “As big as you want it to be.”

In other words, the Chinese government will spend whatever amount it takes, over as many years as needed, to build a military that can defeat the US. And Beijing has been clear about its desire to vanquish the Americans for many years, even if too many experts have refused to believe them.”

 

15. ‘Not Enough Being Done’ to Counter China’s Growing Aggression, US Military Officials Warn

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Excerpts:

“China, too, has been building its multi-domain capabilities, including in cyber and in the maritime sphere. “The difference is they are trying to find their butt with both hands to be joint and interoperable on those things,” said the second official. The official said U.S. forces already conducts operations jointly, and the services are working to improve the communications interlinks between them to allow for that to happen more quickly and effectively.

“Guess who is trying to mirror and mimic what we do? The [People’s Liberation Army of China], trying to become a more joint, interoperable force. We see that in the exercising that they do. We see it in the domains of space, cyber, surface and subsurface and the things that they’re doing. They’re trying to get there. They are behind.”

The first official cautioned against taking Chinese capabilities for granted. “We’re worried about the speed of growth. We’re worried about quantity having a quality all its own. And the number of platforms, even if you operate them poorly, are still highly lethal. So when we talk about a free and open Indo-Pacific that should have the right amount of support for rotational forces and more places not bases and going expeditionary, not enough is being done.”

 

16.  Friday’s Quad Summit Will Show if It’s Just a Talking Shop

Foreign Policy · by Salvatore Babones · March 10, 2021

Excerpts:

“The Quad is never going to go to war with China. In any case, treaty alliances and military procurement partnerships are more effective tools for preventing war than a loose international grouping. What the Quad can do is provide a backbone for broad Indo-Pacific maritime security cooperation that tamps down China’s brinkmanship across the region. Systematic flight and ship tracking, fisheries management, smuggling interdiction, and the like would also help counter North Korea’s extensive illicit maritime activities. And it would keep Russia on notice as it seeks to develop a greater presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

History is littered with the remains of multilateral partnerships that failed because they had nothing to do. It would be a shame to see the second Quad go the same way as the first, but it will only survive if it has a meaningful mission—one that is distinctive to the grouping and useful to all four countries involved. For that, full-spectrum Indo-Pacific maritime security is the only mission that makes sense.”

 

17. The Future of the Quad Is Bright

realclearworld.com · by Jeff M. Smith

Excerpts:

“This evolution in New Delhi’s strategic thinking matters a great deal because India is central to the Quad. The group can only move as quickly as its most reluctant member. Japan, Australia, and the United States are already bound by the thickest of security and intelligence bonds. With India involved at a higher level of strategic coordination, this potent democratic triangle becomes a quadrilateral colossus, accounting for half of the planet’s defense spending, and a third of its population and GDP.

With India and the Biden administration now firmly on board, the Quad’s future is bright.”

 

18. France In The Indo-Pacific: A Mediating Power?

breakingdefense.com · by Murielle Delaporte

Excerpts:

“As a French Air and Space Force officer stressed, ‘’These kinds of exercises allow to improve our interoperability: with a country like India which traditionally purchases a third of its military equipment from Russia, a third from Israel and a third from NATO countries, it is interesting for Rafale and Sukoi 30 to train as wingmen…’’

The same goes in the maritime theater where the French Navy conducts operations all the time, such as the current deployment of the Frigate ‘’Prairial’’ from Tahiti to monitor the embargo against North Korea in cooperation with Japan. The ‘’Marianne mission’’ deployed for eight months and for the first time in the Western Pacific a nuclear attack submarine, SSN ‘’Emeraude’’.

The French government’s observation that, as the world becomes more tightly interconnected, a dangerous ‘’contraction of the geopolitical space’’ — for example, the Chinese goal to link the Baltic Sea to the Arctic.

A lot more than the eye can meet is therefore at stake and that is why, together with its European partners such as Germany, Paris is promoting an Indo-Pacific agenda at the European level and expects that a European strategy for the Indo-Pacific will be endorsed later this year.”

 

--------------

 

“I am still determined to be cheerful and to be happy in whatever situation. I may be, for I have also learnt from experience that the greater part of our happiness or misery depends upon our dispositions and not upon our circumstances.” 

- Martha Washington

 

“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”

- Plato

 

“1. Accept everything just the way it is.

2. Do not seek pleasure for its own sake.

3. Do not, under any circumstances, depend on a partial feeling.

4. Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world.

5. Be detached from desire your whole life long.

6. Do not regret what you have done.

7. Never be jealous.

8. Never let yourself be saddened by a separation.

9. Resentment and complaint are appropriate neither for oneself nor others.

10. Do not let yourself be guided by the feeling of lust or love.

11. In all things have no preferences.

12. Be indifferent to where you live.

13. Do not pursue the taste of good food.

14. Do not hold on to possessions you no longer need.

15. Do not act following customary beliefs.

16. Do not collect weapons or practice with weapons beyond what is useful.

17. Do not fear death.

18. Do not seek to possess either goods or fiefs for your old age.

19. Respect Buddha and the gods without counting on their help.

20. You may abandon your own body but you must preserve your honour.

21. Never stray from the Way.”

- Miyamoto Musashi

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The U.S. Military and South Korea Must Train to Deter North Korea

2. South Korea to Pay U.S. More Under New Troop Cost-Sharing Agreement

3. U.S. Commander Skeptical on North Korea’s Claim of New Missile

4. World powers ignoring North Korea crimes against humanity: UN expert

5. Blinken: No Iran Funds from S. Korea Before Nuclear Compliance

6. Wary U.S. to consult allies on North Korean problem

7. Top U.S. Officials to Promote Peace and Security During Visit to Asia

8. Coming Soon: Joe Biden's North Korea Policy

9. Biden's deal with Seoul points to a swift shift on alliances

10. North Korea Will Soon Begin Coronavirus Vaccinations

11. Ministry vows to keep close communication with int'l community on anti-Pyongyang leaflet ban

12. COVID contributed to ‘starvation’, executions in DPR Korea, Rights Council hears

13. Movement for Myanmar democracy forms…in Korea

14. Is there hope for human rights reform in North Korea with Joe Biden as President?

15. Diplomats say U.S.-South Korea relations 'reinvigorated' under Biden

16. A Harvard professor argued that Korean women forced into sex slavery in WWII did so voluntarily. Now he's facing a backlash

17. Blinken's remarks deepen Korea's Iran dilemma

18. Playing games with war games (Korea)

19. Unification minister makes rare visit to wartime command bunker amid military exercise with U.S.

 

1. The U.S. Military and South Korea Must Train to Deter North Korea

19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · March 10, 2021

My latest OpEd attempting to explain ROK/US combined training.  The editor at 19FortyFive changed my boring title: "Placing the ROK/U.S. Combined Exercises in the Proper Context."

 

2. South Korea to Pay U.S. More Under New Troop Cost-Sharing Agreement

WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon

This is what causes confusion.  The WSJ gets it wrong.  The ROK government will pay the Korean workers who support US forces,  It will pay for construction of designated facilities (funds going to Korean construction companies). And it will pay for sustaining facilities (with funds going to utilities companies).  The ROK Government is not "paying" the US for US troops.  No funds are being transferred from the ROK government to the US Treasury. The ROK government is not  paying a "fee" for the stationing of US forces. This is a cost sharing agreement based on the Status of Forces Agreement.  One of the reasons why there was such friction and the long stalemate in the SMA negotiations previously is because the US was making demands that were outside the scope of the SOFA and the Korean side rightly balked.  This agreement is within the scope of the SOFA and its about cost sharing.  We need diplomats in Korea and the US to execute a Public Affairs campaign to correctly explain it and inform the Korea and American people why this is good for them.

 

3. U.S. Commander Skeptical on North Korea’s Claim of New Missile

Bloomberg · by Anthony Capaccio · March 10, 2021

The commander is right to be skeptical but we should also consider this.  The north has surprised us in the past with having more advanced capabilities than we have assessed. The second is Kim may want to respond to this because he is being called out by the commander.  He may feel he should show us something in response.

I am sure we have sufficient ISR resources focused on determining these capabilities as well as observing for potential provocations.  But we should always keep in mind the regime is masterful at denial and deception.

 

4. World powers ignoring North Korea crimes against humanity: UN expert

The Korea Times · March 11, 2021

Human rights is a national security issue in addition to being a moral imperative.  Note that Tomas Ojea-Quintana wants to refer Kim Jong-un to the International Criminal Court.

But we need to have a human rights upfront approach toward north Korea.  We cannot neglect the suffering of the 25 million Koreans in the north.  We must understand that Kim remains in power by denying human rights to Koreans in the north.

5. Blinken: No Iran Funds from S. Korea Before Nuclear Compliance

voanews.com · by VOA News

 

6. Wary U.S. to consult allies on North Korean problem

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

My comments in the article.

 

7. Top U.S. Officials to Promote Peace and Security During Visit to Asia

english.chosun.com · March 11, 2021

Excerpts:

“Austin begins his trip on March 13 with a visit to U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Headquarters in Hawaii. He later visits India for a meeting with Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and other top national security officials to discuss "deepening the U.S.-India Major Defense Partnership" and ways to achieve a "prosperous and open Indo-Pacific and Western Indian Ocean Region."

Blinken will also emphasize the importance of a free press during the trip, signaling a reversal from former President Donald Trump's frequent outbursts against journalists and press freedoms.

Blinken will host a virtual roundtable with "emerging Japanese journalists" to discuss "the role of a free press in promoting good governance and defending democracy." Blinken also meets virtually with Korean journalists to discuss the importance of the U.S.-Korea alliance in promoting peace worldwide.

Blinken and Austin's visit to Asia comes as the Biden administration has indicated the need to counter China's aggressive actions in the East China Sea and after Blinken said on March 3 that the relationship between the United States and China is the world's "biggest geopolitical test" of the century.

 

8. Coming Soon: Joe Biden's North Korea Policy

The National Interest · by Ethen Kim Lieser · March 10, 2021

A couple points.  I hope there is a strong public affairs campaign to accompany the announcement.

In conjunction with the announcement and explanation of the new policy I would make some personnel announcements (after all personnel is policy).

I would announce four personnel appoints: Special Representative for north Korea, Special Envoy for north Korean Human Rights, the US Ambassador to South Korea, and the next commander of the United Nations Command/ROK/US Combined Forces Command/ Commander of US Forces Korea, and the Senior US military officer in Korea.

I would hope that the new Special Representative, Special Envoy, and US Ambassador are be part of the policy review so they will have intimate knowledge of all the details of the policy and the POTUS' intent and would have provided substantial policy input to the review process.

 

9. Biden's deal with Seoul points to a swift shift on alliances

AP · by Robert Burns · March 11, 2021

 

10. North Korea Will Soon Begin Coronavirus Vaccinations

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · March 10, 2021

Excerpts:

“Most of the COVAX distribution has been of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which has not yet been approved for use in the United States.

Voice of America reported Wednesday that medical experts are optimistic that the vaccination program will help in North Korea.

“They should be able to distribute AstraZeneca vaccine nationwide, and then maintain the cold chain that's required to protect the vaccine from what we call denaturing or just inactivated,” Dr. Kee Park, a neurosurgeon and the head of the Korean American Medical Association’s North Korea program, told Voice of America.

“So they have the cold chain. So they have the technical know-how and the capacity to distribute at least the AstraZeneca vaccine in a nationwide vaccination campaign,” Park said.

 

11. Ministry vows to keep close communication with int'l community on anti-Pyongyang leaflet ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 11, 2021

This is a terrible law:

“The law, scheduled to take effect at the end of this month, prohibits the launch of anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border, with violators subject to a maximum prison term of three years or a fine of 30 million won (US$27,400).”

 

12. COVID contributed to ‘starvation’, executions in DPR Korea, Rights Council hears

news.un.org · March 10, 2021

A useful short summary of the impacts of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions.  He is exploiting COVID 19 to crack down on the population and impose draconian population and resources control measures in the name of COVID mitigation but in reality the measures are designed to keep the Kim family regime in power and mitigate the threats from the public which are more existential than a COVID outbreak.

Kim Jong-un is solely responsible for the suffering of the Korean people living in the north due to his deliberate policy decision.

 

13. Movement for Myanmar democracy forms…in Korea

asiatimes.com · by Tom Coyner · March 10, 2021

Interesting information here:

“Customarily, Seoul has been reticent about critiquing regimes for human rights abuses. Some critics assert that South Korea has a trade policy but not a foreign policy – and indeed, trade is not handled by the country’s foreign ministry. Economic relations with Myanmar are significant.

According to The Diplomat in 2020, Korea was the sixth-largest foreign investor in Myanmar, with especially heavy outlays in the labor-intensive textiles industry. According to the Myanmar Times, South Korea is the country’s eighth-largest trade partner.

The newspaper reported on December 20, 2020, that 135 Korean companies are investing in the “Korea-Myanmar Industrial Complex” in the Yangon Region. The project has official backing from both Myanmar’s Ministry of Construction and South Korea’s state-owned Land and Housing Corporation.

Even so, South Korea has responded with more oomph than ASEAN.”

 

14. Is there hope for human rights reform in North Korea with Joe Biden as President?

nkhiddengulag.org · by Jane Kuper

Despite the author's seeming pessimism, I am optimistic that when we see the results of the Biden Korea policy review we will see a human rights upfront approach.

We all hope that the Biden administration will take a hard look at the human rights situation in North Korea. The President has made it clear that he is not interested in legitimizing the regime, so he should also not legitimize the abuse and control of its citizens. The regime may be outwardly hostile by showing its nuclear power, but the only way to mitigate the regime’s threats is to weaken the regime through the source of its power: human rights abuses. As Ambassador Nikki Haley has said, “We continue to think that there is a separation between peace and security and human rights, and there is not” [11]. For a better future, we need to change the U.S. approach to North Korea from being denuclearization-focused to human rights-focused. Ambassador Samatha Power once stated that “this regime has no double” when it comes to human rights abuses. She addressed the regime with, “We are documenting your crimes, and one day you will be judged for them” [17]. Maybe judgement day could come sooner rather than later.

Denuclearization of the north and human rights upfront are not either/or but both/and.  The solution to both problems is the same: resolution of the "Korea question:" The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
 

15.  Diplomats say U.S.-South Korea relations 'reinvigorated' under Biden

upi.com · March 10, 2021

There are still many challenges for the alliance.

 

16. A Harvard professor argued that Korean women forced into sex slavery in WWII did so voluntarily. Now he's facing a backlash

CNN · by Leah Asmelash, CNN

As he should.

Excerpt: “In 2015, multiple historians signed a letter to the editor in the magazine of the American Historical Association, saying that the Japanese government was attempting to suppress statements regarding the women in its history textbooks. In the letter, the historians compared the actions of the Japanese government to those of the US, when school boards attempted to muddle accounts of slavery in textbooks.”

 

17. Blinken's remarks deepen Korea's Iran dilemma

The Korea Times · by Do Je-hae  · March 11, 2021

It is a global Baduk (Go) or chess board.  No decision can be made in a vacuum or with consideration of only a single interest.

 

18. Playing games with war games (Korea)

The Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · March 11, 2021

Don Kirk is much more provocative than me!  We disagree on a few points and he illustrates why we need to do a better job of educating the press, pundits, politicos, and people about the nature of training and exercises.  But he gets much right about north Korea.

 

19. Unification minister makes rare visit to wartime command bunker amid military exercise with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 11, 2021

I do not think he has any business going to the B-1 Bunker unless it is to talk about future plans of the military in support of unification following war or contingencies (which hopefully Minister Lee and his ministry are working on).   On the other hand I hope the military can "get his mind right" about combined training and exercises and the existential threat that exists from the north that cannot be appeased by appealing to it to take a "wise, flexible" approach toward training. and exercises.

 

----------

 

“I am still determined to be cheerful and to be happy in whatever situation. I may be, for I have also learnt from experience that the greater part of our happiness or misery depends upon our dispositions and not upon our circumstances.” 

- Martha Washington

 

“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”

- Plato

 

“1. Accept everything just the way it is.

2. Do not seek pleasure for its own sake.

3. Do not, under any circumstances, depend on a partial feeling.

4. Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world.

5. Be detached from desire your whole life long.

6. Do not regret what you have done.

7. Never be jealous.

8. Never let yourself be saddened by a separation.

9. Resentment and complaint are appropriate neither for oneself nor others.

10. Do not let yourself be guided by the feeling of lust or love.

11. In all things have no preferences.

12. Be indifferent to where you live.

13. Do not pursue the taste of good food.

14. Do not hold on to possessions you no longer need.

15. Do not act following customary beliefs.

16. Do not collect weapons or practice with weapons beyond what is useful.

17. Do not fear death.

18. Do not seek to possess either goods or fiefs for your old age.

19. Respect Buddha and the gods without counting on their help.

20. You may abandon your own body but you must preserve your honour.

21. Never stray from the Way.”

- Miyamoto Musashi

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Declining Market for Secrets: U.S. Spy Agencies Must Adapt to an Open-Source World

2. Pacific Commander Warns China Likely To Move On Taiwan; Guam A Target

3. Chinese Hackers Blamed for Massive Microsoft Server Hack

4. Secretary Austin Travels to Hawaii, Japan, Republic of Korea, India

5. Xi’s Gambit: China Plans for a World Without American Technology

6. Opinion | Unless America acts now, China could trounce it in artificial intelligence

7. First independent report into Xinjiang genocide allegations claims evidence of Beijing's 'intent to destroy' Uyghur people

8. Why the Chinese Communist Party Sees Tibetan Monks as ‘Troublemakers’

9. Conspiracy Stand Down: How Extremist Theories Like QAnon Threaten the Military and What to Do About It

10. Opinion | How the Pentagon is campaigning against white extremism in its ranks

11. Academic faces Chinese lawsuit for exposing human rights abuses in Xinjiang

12. Taiwan an acid test of Biden’s Asia policy

13. GOP Lawmakers Push Chinese Threat at Indo-Pacific Commander’s Hearing

14. This Salty Former Marine Corporal Now Grills Generals on Capitol Hill

15. Thai woman faces charges for involvement in "massive scheme" to defraud the US Navy

 

1. The Declining Market for Secrets: U.S. Spy Agencies Must Adapt to an Open-Source World

Foreign Affairs · by Zachery Tyson Brown and Carmen A. Medina · March 9, 2021

I would like to listen to the debates within the IC over this one. I hear the 20 cents bouncing on the floor as the paradigm (pair of dimes) is breaking.

Conclusion: "The U.S. intelligence community should not stop collecting and keeping secrets altogether. Intelligence professionals will always remain in the business of finding out what foreign leaders are saying behind closed doors, for example, or assessing an enemy before a battlefield encounter. But the United States should place less emphasis on hard intelligence and realign its limited resources accordingly. As intelligence users become satisfied with the insight and context that a more open platform can provide, collection managers will be able to shift their focus, concentrating on those really difficult problems that only exquisite intelligence collection capabilities can address."

 

2. Pacific Commander Warns China Likely To Move On Taiwan; Guam A Target

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

I wish I was able to read the intelligence assessments to back this up.

Pacific Commander Warns China Likely To Move On Taiwan; Guam A Target

Taiwan may be targeted for annexation by 2027, Adm. Phil Davidson said, and Guam will have to be vigorously defended in a Pacific War.

 

3. Chinese Hackers Blamed for Massive Microsoft Server Hack

thediplomat.com · by Frank Bajak, Eric Tucker, and Matt O’Brien · March 10, 2021

Excerpts:

“On the scale of one to 10, this is a 20,” Kennedy said. “It was essentially a skeleton key to open up any company that had this Microsoft product installed.”

Asked for comment, the Chinese embassy in Washington pointed to remarks last week from Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin saying that China “firmly opposes and combats cyberattacks and cyber theft in all forms” and cautioning that attribution of cyberattacks should be based on evidence and not “groundless accusations.”

The hack did not affect the cloud-based Microsoft 365 email and collaboration systems favored by Fortune 500 companies and other organizations that can afford quality security. That highlights what some in the industry lament as two computing classes — the security “haves” and “have-nots.”

Ben Read, director of analysis at Mandiant, said the cybersecurity firm has not seen anyone leverage the hack for financial gain, “but for folks out there who are affected time is of the essence in terms of patching this issue.”

 

4. Secretary Austin Travels to Hawaii, Japan, Republic of Korea, India

defense.gov · March 10, 2021

 

5. Xi’s Gambit: China Plans for a World Without American Technology

The New York Times · by Paul Mozur and Steven Lee Myers · March 10, 2021

Surely this will backfire on Xi. As one of my former War College students used to say, Chinese R&D is based on "steal to leap ahead." China cannot dominate the world with technology without being able to steal from American innovations (perhaps that is a little over the top, I know).

 

6. Opinion | Unless America acts now, China could trounce it in artificial intelligence

The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · March 9, 2021

Another wake-up call on the US and AI. AI may be the single most important technology of the future.

 

7. First independent report into Xinjiang genocide allegations claims evidence of Beijing's 'intent to destroy' Uyghur people

CNN · by Ben Westcott and Rebecca Wright

Just so tragic. The brutality of the Chinese leadership and security services is beyond belief. How can the UN allow China to be in the human rights organization of the UN? That should be the first step in holding China accountable.

First independent report into Xinjiang genocide allegations claims evidence of Beijing's 'intent to destroy' Uyghur people

 

8. Why the Chinese Communist Party Sees Tibetan Monks as ‘Troublemakers’

under CCP rule, religion and Tibetan national identity are inextricable.

thediplomat.com · by Apa Lhamo · March 10, 2021

Excerpt:

“The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is seemingly in no hurry to unknot its “nets in the sky, traps on the ground” approach to control and surveillance over Tibetans. Neither is China amenable to re-negotiations with the Tibetan leadership-in-exile.

During his meeting with the Dalai Lama in 1954 in Beijing, Chairman Mao Zedong whispered that “religion is poison.” Almost seven decades later, this notorious message continues to haunt the sleep of the CCP leadership. Religion – more specifically, Tibetan Buddhism – remains an intrinsic part of Tibetan life. Monastic institutions attract more legitimacy than local communist authorities in Tibet and reverence for Buddhist leaders, especially the Dalai Lama, is palpable. For many Tibetans, even those

 

9. Conspiracy Stand Down: How Extremist Theories Like QAnon Threaten the Military and What to Do About It

warontherocks.com · by Christina Bembenek · March 10, 2021

An interesting perspective:

“Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered a 60-day Department of Defense-wide stand down to address extremism in the ranks. Even if QAnon groups and hashtags fade with the inauguration of a new administration, similar theories, even more closely associated with extremist positions, will arise and pose the same threat to unit cohesion, discipline, and readiness. Several far-right movements are already seeking to “groom” disenchanted QAnon believers into their fringe organizations that share the same beliefs about deep state actors and evil global cabals.

Officials responsible for personnel need to appreciate the appeal of QAnon and similar extremist conspiracies and actively work to shift the narrative to the values that have made the military one of the most respected institutions in the country. This is not a partisan endeavor, and the military should not feel compelled to find examples on “both sides” of extremism. Civic education and media literacy delivered through innovative storytelling to young servicemembers and veterans form the bedrock of this campaign. The continued success of the military rests on its ability to recruit diverse and dedicated patriots and to maintain the trust of the nation.

 

10. Opinion | How the Pentagon is campaigning against white extremism in its ranks

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · March 10, 2021

Reflect on this:

“McKenzie argues that one reason the military has spawned extremists is that the volunteer force that fought our wars in recent decades began to see itself as a warrior “elite.” The four-star Marine general explains: “You can come back [from deployments abroad] and feel that you’re inherently superior to your fellow citizens. Perhaps you’ve borne a very heavy share of the responsibilities. . . . But actually, we’re all citizens in the end.”

When the symbols of patriotism are embraced by one side in a divided country, they become political emblems. Who could have imagined that singing the national anthem or saluting the flag, or, for that matter, wearing a mask, could become a polarizing ideological statement?

The military carried a heavy load for the country the past two decades, and perhaps that made some veterans feel they had a special status as protectors of the republic — even to the treacherous point of insurrection.”

 

11. Academic faces Chinese lawsuit for exposing human rights abuses in Xinjiang

The Washington Post · by Eva Dou · March 10, 2021

China's Lawfare?

See Dean Cheng's important report here.

 

12.  Taiwan an acid test of Biden’s Asia policy

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · March 10, 2021

I hope it is an acid test and not an acid trip. We cannot afford to have any hallucinations about the challenge of the Taiwan challenge.

 

13. GOP Lawmakers Push Chinese Threat at Indo-Pacific Commander’s Hearing

defenseone.com · by Elizabeth Howe

The China challenge, like the north Korean threat, should be a bipartisan issue.

 

14. This Salty Former Marine Corporal Now Grills Generals on Capitol Hill

military.com · by Steve Beynon · March 9, 2021

It is good to see a member of the "E4 mafia" in a leadership role.

But I hope we can help him understand SOF and China and the global competition with China and how SOF contributes to US national security in more indirect ways than in preparing for possible "commando"(suicide) missions in China during wartime. I hope someone briefs him on the SOF trinities. 

Excerpts:

“He also now chairs the newly formed House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations, where he said a big focus would be on trying to reorient special operations for a fight with China and not spending all their time training other militaries.

Gallego noted that training other nations in basic military tasks and marksmanship could be done by any unit. He said the time and money invested in special operations need to be reexamined for the long term, adding that the huge volume of deployments is an unfair burden on the special operations community.”

 

15. Thai woman faces charges for involvement in "massive scheme" to defraud the US Navy

thethaiger.com · by Caitlin Ashworth · March 10, 2021

More fallout from Fat Leonard. 

 

----------

 

"I will set up a new agency patterned after the erstwhile Office of Strategic Services. A modern-day OSS could draw together specialists in unconventional warfare, civil affairs, and psychological warfare; covert-action operators; and experts in anthropology, advertising, and other relevant disciplines from inside and outside government. Like the original OSS, this would be a small, nimble, can-do organization. It would fight terrorist subversion around the world and in cyberspace. It could take risks that our bureaucracies today rarely consider taking—such as deploying infiltrating agents without diplomatic cover in terrorist states and organizations—and play a key role in frontline efforts to rebuild failed states." 

-John McCain  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2007-11-01/enduring-peace-built-freedom.

 

"It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes... we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions - especially selfish ones."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. … Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never.”

- John Adams, The Letters of John and Abigail Adams

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden Troop Deal With South Korea Calls for Modest Increases

2. New defense cost-sharing deal not to cover USFK's off-peninsula missions: officials

3. S. Korea open to considering Quad membership, Cheong Wa Dae says

4. N. Korea poses 'serious' and 'immediate' threat to U.S., allies: Davidson

5. Biden Should Embrace South Korea’s Strategic Nondecision on the Quad

6. French Navy spots suspected illegal oil transfer during embargo mission against N.K.

7. Three’s Company? Prioritizing Trilateral Deterrence Against North Korea

8. U.S., S. Korea share many interests in Indo-Pacific: State Dept. spokesman

9. A large vessel found in 6 months at a N. Korean coal port

10. Top U.S. diplomat, defense chief to visit Seoul next week

11. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible?

12. Biden has settled one of Trump's feuds with a close US ally, but there are still thornier issues to deal with

13. Step toward better alliance: Korea, US agree on defense cost sharing

14. Hard decisions to make (South Korea)

15. Boebert calls for North Korea to return seized spy ship USS Pueblo

 

1. Biden Troop Deal With South Korea Calls for Modest Increases

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · March 10, 2021

I am glad they released the numbers.  Any lack of transparency will be met with ire in South Korea.

Also thanks to Bloomberg for the graphic to put the increases in perspective.

 

2. New defense cost-sharing deal not to cover USFK's off-peninsula missions: officials

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 10, 2021

This is as it should be - for operational missions.  However, there is still the issue of reduced training opportunities for US forces due to decisions and actions (and sometimes non-actions) by the Korean government that have allowed encroachment on training areas resulting in complaints from citizens encroaching on these areas and the Korean government then limiting US training.  If alternative training areas are not available on the peninsula some US forces have to leave the peninsula to maintain their qualifications to sustain readiness.  This is a training bill not programmed and is the result of the ROKG not providing sufficient training areas.  I am sure this will be an ongoing issue.

The other issue in this article is strategic flexibility.  The ROK government and public are going to have to face the growing reality that the US requires strategic flexibility for all its forces to meet US national security requirements. Although the commitment to the defense of Korea will always remain as long as the Mutual Defense Treaty remains in effect the MDT does not specify north Korea as the threat.  It states the MDT is to defend both countries against threats in the Asia-Pacific region.  I would use that as justification for the ability to employ US forces where and when necessary.  

 

3. S. Korea open to considering Quad membership, Cheong Wa Dae says

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 10, 2021

I think the Moon administration has come to the realization that it does not want to be left behind or left out our the group.  Yes it has to be concerned with Chinese retaliation (probably through economic warfare) but through collective action the group can counter such retaliation.

 

4.  N. Korea poses 'serious' and 'immediate' threat to U.S., allies: Davidson

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 10, 2021

Admiral Davidson's testimony is rightly getting a lot of attention. 

I would change this statement slightly: ""Until the nuclear situation is resolved on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will remain our most immediate threat," he added."

I would say this: Until the division of the peninsula (the Korea question) is resolved on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will remain our most immediate threat.

The bottom line: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

 

5. Biden Should Embrace South Korea’s Strategic Nondecision on the Quad

thediplomat.com · by James Park · March 5, 2021

Hopefully this is now dated by a few days and South Korea is going to seriously consider becoming a member of the Quad/Quad Plus.

But the author makes some important points about South Korean domestic politics.

Excerpts:

“South Koreans, especially liberals, generally believe the United States is not working with South Korean interests in mind. Much of the grievances can be attributed to the Trump administration’s America-first approach to the alliance and how it overlooked a key South Korean liberal interest: autonomy. South Korean liberal perception of the alliance deserves more attention because of the now-liberal dominant tilt of South Korean politics and its implication for the South Korean approach to the U.S.-China rivalry.

In South Korea, conservatives long dominated politics. But today the game is flipped. South Korea exhibits unprecedented liberal primacy in which liberals have won four consecutive elections by landslides and hold a historic parliamentary supermajority. The Moon administration and its liberal cohort are the most popular political coalition in South Korean history and set the tone for what can be seen as a transition from “conservative South Korea” to “liberal South Korea.” Some draw an analogy between South Korea’s liberal wave and the American “Reagan Revolution” that sparked a generation of conservative dominance in the United States.

South Korean foreign policy presents a sharp conservative-liberal divide. The pro-American conservatives historically prioritize maximal alliance cooperation and tend to align their foreign policy with that of Washington. On the other hand, South Korean liberals are longstanding advocates of strategic autonomy within the alliance. Moon Jae-in once commented, “South Korea should learn to say no to the Americans.” Moon put his words into action. The pursuit of South Korean autonomy is no small factor in the Moon administration’s strategic nondecision.

Many in Washington seem to believe South Korea is not siding with the U.S. in confronting China simply due to fear of Chinese retaliation and that protective measures (e.g., reimbursement of financial loss and commitment to punish China) can be solutions. Such an idea mistakenly assumes that South Korea would make pro-American choices by “default” and fails to acknowledge the South Korean liberal ideological attachment to strategic nondecision. For Moon and his liberal base, strategic nondecision is an invested effort to enhance South Korean self-reliance and be freer from great power intervention.”

 

6. French Navy spots suspected illegal oil transfer during embargo mission against N.K.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 10, 2021

It is good news that there is increasing international support for monitoring north Korean sanctions evasions activities.  However, this report begs the question: What action was taken to interrupt this kind of activity?  And what action will the international community take in the future.  Monitoring is good and even deterrence by presence is helpful but enforcement of sanctions is most needed.  What actions are we willing to take?

 

7. Three’s Company? Prioritizing Trilateral Deterrence Against North Korea

warontherocks.com · by Shane Smith · March 10, 2021

Trilateral cooperation is key to national security for all three countries.

Conclusion:

“The governments in Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul have long acknowledged that a forward-looking, cooperative relationship among them is a pillar of their defense strategies and is essential to any effort to deter and, if necessary, defeat an adversary in the event of a crisis or conflict. In recent years, however, domestic political considerations have outweighed that national security imperative. Such self-indulgent thinking is ever more dangerous. There is now an opportunity to return to first principles, resume and advance trilateral cooperation, and strengthen deterrence in Northeast Asia. The visits to Japan and South Korea later this month that are reportedly being planned for Secretaries Austin and Blinken offer a chance to get started.”

 

8. U.S., S. Korea share many interests in Indo-Pacific: State Dept. spokesman

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 10, 2021

Yes we do.  And our Free and Open INDOPACIFIC is compatible with the ROK's Southern Strategy.

 

9. A large vessel found in 6 months at a N. Korean coal port

donga.com · March 10, 2021

It seems that north Korean sanctions evasions activities continue.

 

10. Top U.S. diplomat, defense chief to visit Seoul next week

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 10, 2021

A 2+2 with Korea this early in the new administration is an important sign.

 

11. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible?

project-syndicate.org · by Bennett Ramberg · March 9, 2021

We could probably write a 5000 word journal article on this question.  But only one word is necessary: No.

As I have written many times: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

But the author thinks a deal is possible:

Excerpts:

“Sanctions, domestic mismanagement, natural disasters, and COVID-19 have left North Korea’s economy – by Kim’s own admission – in desperate need of repair. For America, which currently lacks effective ballistic-missile defenses, the prospect of being in North Korea’s nuclear crosshairs is unacceptable. Could this point to a possible trade-off, namely the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the elimination of rockets?

Such a deal would leave North Korea’s theater nuclear force untouched and help mend the country’s economy while reducing the risk of a preemptive American strike. It would also immunize the US against a possible North Korean ICBM attack, leaving it better placed to meet South Korean and Japanese security needs. And with diplomatic representation in each other’s countries, both sides would have reliable channels to address disputes and manage relations generally.

To determine whether Kim’s regime would be open to serious negotiation, the Biden administration could initially endorse  so-called Track II diplomacy – former US government and non-government interlocutors meeting informally with North Korean officials in third-party countries. If the outreach sparked interest in Pyongyang, the door to formal talks would open. America’s default option is to return to tried-and-failed efforts to persuade North Korea to disarm. The challenge will be to convince leaders on both sides that diplomatic normalization leading to an ICBM-sanctions trade-off is the best path forward.

 

12. Biden has settled one of Trump's feuds with a close US ally, but there are still thornier issues to deal with

Business Insider

Yes the SMA (Cost sharing) is the most visible and easy to understand issue.  But there are many others.

My shortlist:

·      Operational Control (OPCON) Transition : The conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK.

·      Combined Exercises and Training: These are critical to maintain military readiness as well as supporting the OPCON transition process and they cannot be negotiated  away with the north.

·      U.S. Forces Korea access to training areas : This is a critical problem for maintaining readiness of U.S. forces.

·      U.S.- China Competition and the impact the ROK/U.S. Alliance. This will continue to be a source of alliance friction.

·      Pandemic response :  This impacts not only the entire populations of both nations, but also the economies, and military readiness.

·      ROK-Japan historical enmity .  Trilateral cooperation is necessary for the security of all three countries.

·      ROK/U.S. Trade Issues : Although China is the ROK’s largest trading partner, economic relations between the ROK and U.S. are a key component of the alliance.

 

13.  Step toward better alliance: Korea, US agree on defense cost sharing

The Korea Times · March 9, 2021

This excerpt illustrates why the diplomats and defense officials from the ROK and US must implement a sound IO plan to inform and educate the public on why this agreement is good for the people of both countries. Transparency is key.

Excerpt:

 "Yet, it is still doubtful whether the agreement is fair and transparent. Critics question if Korea has struck the deal on an equal footing. They argue that the country will still have to pay a higher burden for the U.S. military presence, citing media reports that Seoul has offered to purchase U.S. military equipment. They also call for a change in calculating the actual defense costs. The U.S. side should improve transparency about how Korea's payment is used."

 

14. Hard decisions to make (South Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Wi Sung-Iac

From our good friend Ambassador Wi.

This short OpEd covers a lot of ground for South Korea with regard to the US, China, Japan, and north Korea.

Conclusion: Korean diplomacy faces a test again. If the government fails to coordinate North Korea policy with Washington, its diplomatic and security scorecard will be poor. South Korea must make tough decisions on China and Japan. That is not only needed for policy toward Beijing and Tokyo but also toward Washington. If the Moon administration isn’t prepared to do this, it cannot get what it wants from a Biden administration engrossed with containing China in the region. Is Seoul prepared to accept that uncomfortable truth?   

 

15. Boebert calls for North Korea to return seized spy ship USS Pueblo

gazette.com · by Ernest Luning

 

------------

 

"I will set up a new agency patterned after the erstwhile Office of Strategic Services. A modern-day OSS could draw together specialists in unconventional warfare, civil affairs, and psychological warfare; covert-action operators; and experts in anthropology, advertising, and other relevant disciplines from inside and outside government. Like the original OSS, this would be a small, nimble, can-do organization. It would fight terrorist subversion around the world and in cyberspace. It could take risks that our bureaucracies today rarely consider taking—such as deploying infiltrating agents without diplomatic cover in terrorist states and organizations—and play a key role in frontline efforts to rebuild failed states." 

-John McCain  https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2007-11-01/enduring-peace-built-freedom.

 

"It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes... we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions - especially selfish ones."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. … Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never.”

- John Adams, The Letters of John and Abigail Adams

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Report: "Clear evidence" China is committing genocide against Uyghurs

2. IndoPacom Seeks Billions to Move Forces West of International Dateline

3. Inside the Pentagon’s plan to keep extremists from joining up

4. A radical plan calls for shifting billions to State from Defense

5. Is a Pacific NATO the Only Way to Counter China?

6. Remote C.I.A. Base in the Sahara Steadily Grows

7. In One Afghan District, Peace From 8 A.M. to 5 P.M.

8. Emilia Seikkanen Worked in a Trendy Video Start-Up in Berlin – Tells All about the Kremlin's Global Information Operation

9. SOCOM Shows Interest in Hybrid, AI-Enabled Vehicles

10. Are U.S. Special Forces Quietly Using Armed Robots?

11. Diplomats Warned of a Coronavirus Danger in Wuhan—2 Years Before the Outbreak

12. Key takeaways from the review of Capitol Hill security after Jan. 6 attack

13. How Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan Benefits the United States

14. Kamala Harris is playing an unusually large role in shaping Biden’s foreign policy

15. Frontline Geek Squads: SOCOM’s Secret Weapon

16. Preparing for Retaliation Against Russia, U.S. Confronts Hacking by China

 

1. Report: "Clear evidence" China is committing genocide against Uyghurs

Axios · by Rebecca Falconer

The 55 page report can be accessed here. 

 

2. IndoPacom Seeks Billions to Move Forces West of International Dateline

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Stew Magnuson and Meredith Roaten

But host nations have to agree to host.

 

3. Inside the Pentagon’s plan to keep extremists from joining up

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“Several of the suggestions involve working more closely with the FBI, which has been sounding the alarm about the dangers of domestic extremism.

That would include running questionable recruit tattoos through the FBI’s database, creating a consistent definition of domestic extremism for reference across the services, giving an unclassified version of the FBI’s in-house domestic extremism training, as well as consulting other agencies about updating Standard Form 86, which the federal government uses to build background checks.

The only recommendation DoD hasn’t started to implement is the suggestion to create a military separation code that would indicate domestic extremism as a cause for discharge, which would not only inform potential employers of past activities, but give DoD a way to centrally track the number of service members booted for it.”

 

4. A radical plan calls for shifting billions to State from Defense

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · March 9, 2021

If you want to lead with diplomacy, diplomacy must be able to lead with resources and authorities.  This proposal will certainly upset the apple cart.

The report can be accessed here. 

 

5. Is a Pacific NATO the Only Way to Counter China?

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt and Christoph Koettl · March 8, 2021

No. We are not going to see a NATO-like military structure in Asia. I just do not think the member countries 9and others) would sign up to such a structure. Furthermore, it may be that the economic, political, and information aspects of a Quad (or Quad Plus) are more important than a military component.

 

7. In One Afghan District, Peace From 8 A.M. to 5 P.M.

The New York Times · by Jim Huylebroek, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Taimoor Shah and Fahim Abed· March 8, 2021

Who owns the night?

 

8. Emilia Seikkanen Worked in a Trendy Video Start-Up in Berlin – Tells All about the Kremlin's Global Information Operation

yle.fi · by Jessikka Aro

So much to unpack here. This is political warfare. Information and influence. Using seemingly legitimate business to further national objectives through influence operations.

 

9. SOCOM Shows Interest in Hybrid, AI-Enabled Vehicles

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Yasmin Tadjdeh

Excerpts:

“Mark Cancian, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ International Security Program, said many of SOCOM’s vehicle programs are well suited for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations, which the command has become known for in the past two decades. However, with the Pentagon emphasizing great power competition with advanced adversaries such as Russia and China, those types of platforms are not as ideal.

The other services are moving “toward armored vehicles because of the higher level of threat,” he said. “SOCOM would have to at least balance its vehicle inventory with some sort of armored vehicle that could operate in a higher threat environment.”

A heavily armored vehicle such as JAGMS could be particularly useful in great power competition, Cancian said.

Meanwhile, Special Operations Command is maintaining its fleet of mine resistant, ambush-protected vehicles, which consist primarily of SOF-modified MRAP all-terrain vehicles and RG-33-A1 platforms.”

 

10. Are U.S. Special Forces Quietly Using Armed Robots?

Forbes · by David Hambling · March 9, 2021

 

11. Diplomats Warned of a Coronavirus Danger in Wuhan—2 Years Before the Outbreak

Politico · by Josh Rogin · March 8, 2021

We should pay attention to our diplomats and their reporting on what is going on around the world:

“After consultations with experts, some U.S. officials came to believe that this Beijing lab was likely conducting coronavirus experiments on mice fitted with ACE2 receptors well before the coronavirus outbreak—research that they hadn’t disclosed and continued not to admit to. In its January 15 statement, the State Department alleged that although the Wuhan Institute of Virology disclosed some of its participation in gain-of-function research, it has not disclosed its work on RaTG13 and “has engaged in classified research, including laboratory animal experiments, on behalf of the Chinese military since at least 2017.” That, by itself, did not help to explain how SARS-CoV-2 originated. But it was clear that officials believed there was a lot of risky coronavirus research going on in Chinese labs that the rest of the world was simply not aware of.

“This was just a peek under a curtain of an entire galaxy of activity, including labs and military labs in Beijing and Wuhan playing around with coronaviruses in ACE2 mice in unsafe labs,” the senior administration official said. “It suggests we are getting a peek at a body of activity that isn’t understood in the West or even has precedent here.”

This pattern of deception and obfuscation, combined with the new revelations about how Chinese labs were handling dangerous coronaviruses in ways their Western counterparts didn’t know about, led some U.S. officials to become increasingly convinced Chinese authorities were manipulating scientific information to fit their narrative. But there was so little transparency, it was impossible for the U.S. government to prove, one way or the other. “If there was a smoking gun, the CCP buried it along with anyone who would dare speak up about it,” one U.S. official told me. “We’ll probably never be able to prove it one way or the other, which was Beijing’s goal all along.”

Back in 2017, the U.S. diplomats who had visited the lab in Wuhan had foreseen these very events, but nobody had listened and nothing had been done. “We were trying to warn that that lab was a serious danger,” one of the cable writers who had visited the lab told me. “I have to admit, I thought it would be maybe a SARS-like outbreak again. If I knew it would turn out to be the greatest pandemic in human history, I would have made a bigger stink about it.”

 

12. Key takeaways from the review of Capitol Hill security after Jan. 6 attack

ABCNews.com  · by Benjamin Siegel · March 9, 2021

Excerpts:

“Ahead of the report's release, Republicans have criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's appointment of Honore to conduct the review, pointing to his increasingly partisan tone on Twitter and attacks against Republicans.

"While there may be some worthy recommendations forthcoming, General Honore's notorious partisan bias calls into question the rationality of appointing him to lead this important security review," House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said in a statement Sunday. "It also raises the unacceptable possibility that the Speaker desired a certain result: turning the Capitol into a fortress."

Key takeaways from the review of Capitol Hill security after Jan. 6 attack

It calls for more officers, security upgrades. Lawmakers were briefed Monday.

 

13. How Strategic Ambiguity on Taiwan Benefits the United States

The National Interest · by Gary Sands · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“President Biden is no stranger to the TRA, having argued nearly twenty years ago: “The president should not cede to Taiwan, much less to China, the ability automatically to draw us into a war across the Taiwan Strait.”

Much has changed in the two decades since Biden made those remarks, but the Biden administration appears to be sticking to the status quo of strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. In his Interim National Security Strategic Guidance released on March 3, the administration states “We will support Taiwan, a leading democracy and a critical economic and security partner, in line with longstanding American commitments.”

Unfortunately, Biden’s measured approach to calm the waters by staying the course of strategic ambiguity over Taiwan was not received well in Beijing. Four days later, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Washington to stop “crossing lines and playing with fire” on Taiwan, saying there was “no room for compromise or concessions.” How this latest exchange continues to be played out in the airspace around Taiwan remains to be seen, but no Chinese PLAAF sorties have been reported by Taipei since March 3.”

 

14. Kamala Harris is playing an unusually large role in shaping Biden’s foreign policy

The Washington Post · by Olivier Knox · March 8, 2021

 

15. Frontline Geek Squads: SOCOM’s Secret Weapon

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.· March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“The communication has to go both ways, Groen and Antani agreed, without either side lecturing the other or passively waiting for the other to fix the problem. That’s true when two very different cultures combine in any kind of organization, but it’s especially true in hardcore Special Ops units.

“It is a huge leap to bring somebody in from the outside, into those types of organizations,” he said. “So step one is, keep your mouth shut and learn, listen, earn the right to be part of the team.”

It’s also vital to earn credit by achieving some successes ASAP, Antani emphasized. “You have a limited amount of time to earn the right to be there,” he said. “If you try to do too much early you’re going to fail.”

In the case of Special Operations units, Antani said, the data scientists found plenty of back-office processes they could make more efficient, like personnel transfers – but those were the wrong thing to focus on first. The urgent need, the fix that could make the biggest impact in the least time, was getting operators data on their enemy as soon as possible.

“As we gained those quick wins, we earned the right to be there, and people recognized the impact we could have,” Antani said. “Make sure the sergeant majors believe you should be on the team, because … they will help advocate and evangelize [for] you.”

 

16. Preparing for Retaliation Against Russia, U.S. Confronts Hacking by China

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes and Nicole Perlroth · March 7, 2021

 

------------

 

“Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do.”

- Marcus Tullius Cicero

 

“Here is your country. Cherish these natural wonders, cherish the natural resources, cherish the history and romance as a sacred heritage, for your children and your children's children. Do not let selfish men or greedy interests skin your country of its beauty, its riches or its romance.”

- Theodore Roosevelt

 

“Experience is not what happens to you; it's what you do with what happens to you.”

- Aldous Huxley

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Washington, Seoul reach consensus on new '6-year' special measures agreement for US Forces Korea: US

2. State Dept.: U.S. did not 'make demands' on South Korea in cost-sharing negotiations

3.  S. Korea considers joining Quad Plus to steer U.S. toward talks with N. Korea: policy adviser

4.  S. Korea, U.S. supposed to stage joint outdoor drills throughout year: defense ministry

5. N.K. economic officials blame themselves for lack of progress in development plans

6. North Korean in Malaysia loses final appeal against US extradition

7. International Women’s Day Causes North Korean Women to Question Society

8. N.Korean Cracks Down on 'Degenerate' S.Korean Pop Imports

9. US foreign policy: implications for the two Koreas

10. How Do You Solve a Problem Like Korea?

11. Samjiyon again put under lockdown over COVID-19 fears

12. Sinuiju City: Big Plans, Little Progress

13. Alleged human trafficker arrested a year after her arrest warrant issued

14. South Korea finds no link found between deaths and coronavirus vaccine

15. I Took Part in the US-South Korean War Drills. They Make All of Us Less Safe.

 

1. Washington, Seoul reach consensus on new '6-year' special measures agreement for US Forces Korea: US

The Korea Times · March 9, 2021

A six year agreement would be historic and better than I had hoped for.

2. State Dept.: U.S. did not 'make demands' on South Korea in cost-sharing negotiations

upi.com · by Thomas Maresca · March 9, 2021

I am not sure about this.  Perhaps we only had "asks" and not demands.  But historically the SMA negotiations have been pretty contentious with hard bargaining on both sides.  And both sides must negotiate to protect their own national interests.

 

3. S. Korea considers joining Quad Plus to steer U.S. toward talks with N. Korea: policy adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 9, 2021

South Korea must join the Quad because it is in its national security interests to do. Simply to influence US policy toward north Korea is not a sufficient reason to do so.

 

4.  S. Korea, U.S. supposed to stage joint outdoor drills throughout year: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 9, 2021

We need to conduct multi-echelon training with the right type of training for the right echelon of force (e.g, headquarters versus tactical maneuver forces) all year around (as we always have).

 

5. N.K. economic officials blame themselves for lack of progress in development plans

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 9, 2021

Inminban self-criticism sessions on a national scale?

 

6. North Korean in Malaysia loses final appeal against US extradition

malaymail.com · by  March 9, 2021

Small victories.  Hopefully we will be able to try him and expose north Korea's illicit activities in court.

 

7. International Women’s Day Causes North Korean Women to Question Society

rfa.org· by Hyemin Son

I think if change comes in north Korea it may be because of women.  It was women who really developed the necessary resilience for families to survive the Arduous March of the great famine. It was women who pioneered the market activity that has provided a certain level of resilience in the decades since the great famine though Kim Jong-un appears to be working hard to undo all of that using the excuse of COVID mitigation measures to crack down on market activity.

Focusing on an information and influence activities campaign on women could be very powerful and put further pressure on the regime. And it could possibly lead to significant change in north Korea.

 

8. N.Korean Cracks Down on 'Degenerate' S.Korean Pop Imports

english.chosun.com · March 8, 2021

Just another indication of how much of a threat is information from the South.  And the north's actions will only make the Korean people in the north desire that information more.

 

9. US foreign policy: implications for the two Koreas

asiatimes.com · by Stephan Haggard · March 9, 2021

Excerpts:

“Although everyone is waiting for the completion of the review, we actually know more about where the Biden administration is likely to go on North Korea than is thought.

Biden made clear in his first foreign-policy speech his willingness to engage: “By leading with diplomacy, we must also mean engaging our adversaries and our competitors diplomatically, where it’s in our interest….”

And his acceptance of a bottom-up approach will mean a return – if the North Koreans can be induced to show up – to a step-by-step or incremental approach that Stephen Biegun, the last US special representative for North Korea under Trump, consistently emphasized in his thoughtful comments on the process.

The speed with which the Biden administration has moved with respect to Iran, however, could be read as a signal of where it sees the lower-lying fruit. As daunting as the Iranian problem is, the fact that the country has not openly broken out and the existence of an extant framework make it the easier of the two nuclear challengers to deal with in the short run.

If this is read by North Korea as neglect, we are in a period of higher risk than may be recognized. North Korea has good reasons not to test in a way that the United States cannot ignore. But we know from the sad history of former president Barack Obama’s first year in office that North Korea could well miscalculate and choose to take its chances on a more confrontational posture.

One way of mitigating this risk would be to establish a channel as quickly as possible. The long history of US channels is not without controversy. But moving toward a workable bargaining framework is not going to be easy. Signaling the intent to negotiate concretely is a lot easier than writing down roadmaps that are almost certain to be upset by the realities of actual negotiations.”

 

10. How Do You Solve a Problem Like Korea?

WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead  · March 9, 2021

Although I do not see any real solutions proposed, Walter Russell Mead makes some important points about the nature of the Kim family regime:

“The Kims, it seems clear, do not want a flourishing civilian economy. The militarization of the economy and the permanent scarcity of resources concentrate power at the center. The nuclear-weapons program keeps the dynasty safe from foreign military pressure, and a world-class system of repression insulates the rulers from domestic discontent. The nuclear arsenal leads anxious foreigners to court the Kims, elevating the dynasty’s importance in its own eyes and those of its servants. And in efforts to limit further progress in the weapons program, foreigners offer resources that enhance the regime’s power to reward its supporters.

The human costs are appalling, but if your goals are to maintain the Kim dynasty’s total control over the country and the total independence of North Korea as a state, the model demonstrably works.

The Kim dynasty’s strategy to maintain the status quo at home is deeply destabilizing internationally. Between enhancing its nuclear arsenal, improving its missile delivery systems and experimenting with unconventional weapons ranging from cyber to bio, North Korea becomes a steadily greater concern. And as the situation in the Indo-Pacific becomes more volatile, the danger that North Korean actions could launch a wider war can only grow.

For all these reasons, the Biden administration would like to persuade or constrain North Korea to change course. But unless it can shake Kim Jong Un’s conviction that his strategy is a brilliant success, the Biden administration, like its predecessors, has no winning cards in its hand.”

 

11. Samjiyon again put under lockdown over COVID-19 fears

dailynk.com· by Lee Chae Un · March 8, 2021

Are there indications of a real outbreak? Or is this KJU simply using the threat of COVID to further crack down on market activity and impose draconian population and resources control measures to repress and oppress the people.

 

12. Sinuiju City: Big Plans, Little Progress

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · March 8, 2021

Excerpt: "But more than two years later, little has changed in one of North Korea’s most important border cities. So, what happened?"

 

13. Alleged human trafficker arrested a year after her arrest warrant issued

dailynk.com · by  Kim Yoo Jin  · March 9, 2021

This is terrible on multiple levels.  

 

14. South Korea finds no link found between deaths and coronavirus vaccine

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin and Josh Smith · March 8, 2021

 

15. I Took Part in the US-South Korean War Drills. They Make All of Us Less Safe.

truthout.org · by Jovanni Reyes · March 8, 2021

Ughhh....Needless to say I disagree with this spin. But I admire the author's ability to write propaganda.

 

--------------

 

“Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do.”

- Marcus Tullius Cicero

 

“Here is your country. Cherish these natural wonders, cherish the natural resources, cherish the history and romance as a sacred heritage, for your children and your children's children. Do not let selfish men or greedy interests skin your country of its beauty, its riches or its romance.”

- Theodore Roosevelt

 

“Experience is not what happens to you; it's what you do with what happens to you.”

- Aldous Huxley

How to Conduct the Biden Administration's Korea Policy Review

The National Interest · by David Maxwell · March 8, 2021

My recommendations on what must be done for the Korea policy review.

Will Lloyd Austin stand up to the generals?

The Hill · by Mark E. Mitchell, opinion contributor · March 8, 2021

Though the timing is coincidental, this is a critically important OpEd from Mark Mitchell that is a counterpoint to LTG Mulholland's MIlitary Times OpEd.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. U.S. proposes interim power-sharing government with Taliban in Afghanistan

2. Retying the Gordian Knot: US Special Operations Command as a service

3. Biden Endorses Female Generals Whose Promotions Were Delayed Over Fears of Trump’s Reaction

4. Support for QAnon Is Hard to Measure. Polls May Overestimate It

5. Xi Jinping’s Eager-to-Please Bureaucrats Snarl His China Plans

6. The Stories China Tells: The New Historical Memory Reshaping Chinese Nationalism

7. How the US military is preparing for a war with China

8. What Is Biden’s ‘Foreign Policy for the Middle Class’?

9. A Hack Like This Could Start the Next World War

10. This Is How the Biggest Arms Manufacturers Steer Millions to Influence US Policy

11. ‘Weaponised the internet’: The rise of extreme right-wing groups in Australia

12. Opinion | U.S. Military Power, and the Lessons of History

13. Whispers from Wargames About the Gray Zone

14. Abandon Old Assumptions About Defense Spending

15. A hip-fired electromagnetic anti-drone rifle

16. The Women Who Changed War Reporting

17. FDD | Biden Must Do More to Deter Russian Aggression and Uphold Global Norms

18. Why is military history in retreat at universities?

19. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 8, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. U.S. proposes interim power-sharing government with Taliban in Afghanistan

The Washington Post · by Karen DeYoung · March 8, 2021

I will leave this to the Afghanistan experts for comment.

 

2. Retying the Gordian Knot: US Special Operations Command as a service

militarytimes.com · by John F. Mulholland · March 7, 2021

LTG Mulholland is opposed to USSOCOM as a service. But I will continue to argue that USSOCOM needs service authorities and not just "service-like" responsibilities and authorities. The commander of special operations should have a seat in the tank as a member of the Joint Chiefs. This can be done without making SOF a separate service if the Pentagon fully implements the intent of Section 922 of the NDAA. And that is the real issue: How and when will the Pentagon fully comply with the law and Congressional intent for effective SOF civilian oversight. And remember one of the provisions of Section 922 was to insert the ASD SO/LIC into the administration chain of command: POTUS, SECDEF, ASD SO/LIC, and USSOCOM.

 

I agree that Ezra Cohen overstepped his bounds but he is no longer in a position of power and LTG Mulholland does give him the benefit of the doubt recognizing he was likely a man in the moment when he made his statement.

Key quotes:

“Forcing USSOCOM into a formal service role would be a self-inflicted wound that would jeopardize the best aspects of SOF performance over the last four decades.

In short, to compel USSOCOM and USSOF into its own formal Service would force it to behave in a way intrinsically opposed to it purpose for existence.

To force USSOCOM into pure “service-hood” would divert the command massively — and disastrously — from its original intent to be an operationally focused headquarters fixed on generating and employing the world’s finest special operations force. 

The relationship between USSOCOM and the services, I’d offer, has never been better, closer or more mutually beneficial than it is today. 

 Such an action would, indeed, tie a new Gordian Knot around the neck of USSOF. To what end? To fix what problem? Who seeks such a solution?

To the last point I would again ask are we implementing the law in Section 922 of the NDAA and meeting Congressional intent? After all it was the wisdom of Congress that underpins all the arguments LTG Mulholland makes and gave us USSOCOM.”

 

3. Biden Endorses Female Generals Whose Promotions Were Delayed Over Fears of Trump’s Reaction

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt and Helene Cooper · March 7, 2021

A civil-military relations issue.

 

4. Support for QAnon Is Hard to Measure. Polls May Overestimate It

defenseone.com · by James Shanahan

Maybe some good news. Maybe there are not as many whack jobs out there that we thought or that the online proliferation of the cult would appear to indicate.

 

5. Xi Jinping’s Eager-to-Please Bureaucrats Snarl His China Plans

WSJ · by Chun Han Wong

Is China like north Korea or is north Korea like China? Some interesting similarities here:

Some of Beijing’s proposed remedies only seem to encourage more bureaucracy. As the pandemic’s economic fallout heaped pressure on officials struggling to meet poverty-relief targets, party authorities ordered in April a fresh push to curb red tape.

Among its demands: compiling an anthology of Mr. Xi’s remarks on “formalism and bureaucratism” and making it required reading for all cadres.

Within weeks, a party publisher had released a 136-page volume featuring 182 passages, and government agencies and state businesses started arranging seminars for officials to study the text.

The publishing arm of the party’s disciplinary commission released six new books last year, including a comic, to teach officials how to recognize and prevent “formalistic” practices.

 

6. The Stories China Tells: The New Historical Memory Reshaping Chinese Nationalism

Foreign Affairs · by Jessica Chen Weiss · March 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“The CCP faces an uphill battle in selling its newly revised version of China’s World War II history to audiences outside China. Part of the problem lies in Western historiography and prejudice, Mitter writes: China’s role in the war has been neglected for so long in Western countries that few people in those places have an interest in learning more. Mitter has tried to correct that in this book, building on the scholarship of his previous and also excellent work Forgotten Ally.

But foreign countries and their citizens hardly pose the biggest obstacle to China’s quest to use history to burnish its legitimacy: the CCP itself is the main barrier. Even when the party allows a more thorough investigation of the wartime past, it still ruthlessly suppresses narratives—whether about Hong Kong, Tibet, or Xinjiang—that challenge its increasingly ethnonationalist definition of who and what belongs to China. And as filmmakers navigate the party’s limited tolerance for ambiguity, the result is often big-budget films that emphasize the scale and horror of World War II without the kind of nuance that would humanize its victims and perpetrators. For many Western critics, these films provide too much “loud spectacle and cheap sentiment,” writes Mitter, describing the critical responses to Zhang Yimou’s Flowers of War, which chronicles Japan’s brutal occupation of Nanjing, and Feng Xiaogang’s Back to 1942, which recounts the Henan famine.

...

For China’s neighbors and rivals, the CCP’s mixture of cooperation and confrontation defines the “China challenge”: how to work with Beijing on controlling the COVID-19 pandemic, slowing climate change, and preventing nuclear proliferation while also parrying the effects of China’s growing authoritarianism and pugilistic nationalism. Beijing’s attempt to recast the history of World War II might help them do so. Without endorsing the CCP’s version of history or excusing Beijing’s aggression abroad and abuses at home, leaders in Washington and elsewhere could more explicitly acknowledge China’s contributions to ending World War II and creating the existing order. Doing so might mitigate the growing sense among Chinese citizens that the United States and its partners will never allow China to play a leading role on the world stage. That recognition could in turn help Washington press the CCP to pull back on its campaign to intimidate and punish its critics abroad. An agreement of that kind would not solve many of the problems plaguing relations between the United States and China. But it is precisely the kind of carefully finessed arrangement that Washington and Beijing will have to get much better at crafting if they are to achieve anything resembling peaceful coexistence.”

 

7. How the US military is preparing for a war with China

Asia Nikkei· by James Stavridis · March 7, 2021

Conclusion: "Taken together, it seems clear that the U.S. military is stepping up its presence and combat capability in the Western Pacific, and positioning for a conflict with China over the coming decades."

 

8. What Is Biden’s ‘Foreign Policy for the Middle Class’?

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · March 7, 2021

Excerpts:

“The Joe Biden administration hasn’t wasted time staking out its proposed grand strategy: “Foreign policy for the middle class.”

That idea, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has explained, is the central organizing concept for America’s global role: “Everything we do in our foreign policy and national security will be measured by a basic metric: Is it going to make life better, safer and easier for working families?”

A foreign policy for the middle class is the product of sustained intellectual effort by the new administration. It has implications for issues ranging from foreign economic policy to the “forever wars” in Afghanistan and the Middle East. The concept is rooted in a recognition that winning the pivotal contest of our time, the clash between America and China, will require fortifying the domestic foundations of U.S. power. Above all, it constitutes Biden’s answer to the fundamental question America faces — whether it can preserve its traditions of enlightened internationalism and liberal democracy against the forces of aggressive unilateralism and illiberal populism that were on display under President Donald Trump.

 

9. A Hack Like This Could Start the Next World War

Bloomberg · by Tim Culpan · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“So far, despite dozens of cyberattacks among superpowers over the past two decades, the world has kept spinning on its axis and life for most people has continued on largely unhindered. That could change at any moment.

...

And so the cyber capabilities will grow and incursions continue, tit-for-tat. All you need is one such hack to have gone too far and to trigger an outsize response, one that results in a set of chain reactions with multiple and continuous cyber retaliations paralyzing power grids, data transmission, agriculture, information flow, transportation systems, and food supply chains. While it may lack the mushroom cloud of an atom bomb or explosive force of missile strikes, the devastation could be as widespread and even lead to military confrontation.

That’s why the best hope may be that the cyber equivalent of nukes are developed and obtained — and publicly acknowledged — by all major powers. These would be perceived to have the potential to overwhelm and cause so much upheaval and destruction that using them would be impossible. Yet their mere existence may once again give rise to the notion — and fear — of mutually assured destruction, and its paradoxical benefit: peace.

 

10. This Is How the Biggest Arms Manufacturers Steer Millions to Influence US Policy

military.com · by Stephen Losey · March 7, 2021

Excerpts:

"These connections make for cozy relationships and highly useful contact lists," the report says. "Overworked and underpaid congressional staffers can also hope that lucrative lobbying jobs await them at the same companies who come to them pushing their own agendas."

The so-called "revolving door" also exists on Capitol Hill, the report adds. Over the last 30 years, nearly 530 staffers have both worked for a member of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees of both houses of Congress or the Defense Appropriations subcommittees, and then as a lobbyist for defense companies.

The report highlights former Defense Secretary Mark Esper as an example of the revolving door in action. Esper worked for the Senate Foreign Relations and House Armed Services committees in the late 1990s and early 2000s, as well as an assistant deputy secretary of defense, before moving to Raytheon's government relations office. After seven years in that job, President Donald Trump made him secretary of the Army and then head of the Defense Department.

 

11. ‘Weaponised the internet’: The rise of extreme right-wing groups in Australia

news.com.au · March 5, 2021

Excerpts:

“A relatively new group to Australia – the National Socialist Network – claims to have an active footprint in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, Perth and a number of regional cities.

The nation’s spy agency, the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, says increasing numbers of young Australians – some just 14 years old – are being radicalised by both extreme right wing and Islamist groups.

 

12. Opinion | U.S. Military Power, and the Lessons of History

The New York Times · by  Stuart Gottlieb  · March 7, 2021

Excerpt: "American military power and leadership were eventually required to restore the peace, and they remain just as vital today. And while a more sustainable balance between force and diplomacy is sorely needed, it would be a mistake to think that we can trade one for the other."

 

13. Whispers from Wargames About the Gray Zone

warontherocks.com · by Robert C. Rubel · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“Military wargames are undertaken for specific reasons, and their design is usually based on a set of well-defined objectives. The process of gaming is therefore disciplined, which is necessary given the expense in terms of time, effort, and resources needed to conduct them. Especially in the case of research games, as opposed to those conducted solely for educational purposes, one or more specific research questions are established that guide design, execution, and analysis. Normally a “hot wash” — a plenary discussion of what happened in the game in which all the participants compare notes — is conducted, and sometime later, perhaps weeks or months, analysts prepare a game report. Such discussions, analyses, and reports are usually focused on answering the research questions and addressing game objectives. Yuna Wong and Garret Heath recently called for the employment of more rigorous research tools to determine whether wargaming actually works. Such a project might be able to produce answers with respect to the formal objectives of games, but likely would not be able to shed any light on the more subtle ability of games to reveal things not connected to their objectives.

Wargames, being weakly structured research tools, can reveal so much more, but it takes a sensitive and discerning observer to detect the weak signals or “whispers” — indications that might be easily ignored and that might be counterintuitive or even threatening. Yet it is these whispers we are interested in here. They can reveal the underlying logic of human competition, which is especially relevant today.”

 

14. Abandon Old Assumptions About Defense Spending

warontherocks.com · by Robert Levinson · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“Arguments about how big a Navy or an Air Force the United States should have, or how much to spend on defense overall, can be grounded in an assessment of what the nation needs for its security, rather than simply what it can afford, because it may be able to afford much more spending on defense and much else.

The most influential economist in history, John Maynard Keynes, said in 1936: “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” Perhaps the United States needs to abandon some old assumptions and listen to other economists who aren’t so defunct.”

 

15. A hip-fired electromagnetic anti-drone rifle

ZDNet · by Greg Nichols

Gives new meaning to "shooting from the hip."

 

16. The Women Who Changed War Reporting

The Atlantic · by George Packer · March 6, 2021

Excerpts:

“Women no longer face the barriers that confronted Becker’s Vietnam reporters, but they are still less likely than men to gain easy admittance to the insular world of U.S. military officers and national-security officials. So perhaps it makes sense that the most thoroughly Iraqi book of the war by an American journalist has been written by a woman. Getting a book like The Spymaster of Baghdad into readers’ hands at this stage of the post–September 11 conflicts is an uphill battle. But as Iraq begins to be rebuilt by its people, there is real value in revisiting the country through an all-Iraqi narrative. The Spymaster of Baghdad achieves through an excellent yarn what Fire in the Lake achieved through the epic synthesis of history, politics, and culture. Coker’s Iraq, like FitzGerald’s Vietnam, emerges as its own country, more impressive than the stage of an American drama that absorbed us for a few years, more real than the projection of American fantasies and traumas, returning to its own people, finding its own destiny.”

 

17. FDD | Biden Must Do More to Deter Russian Aggression and Uphold Global Norms

fdd.org · by Anthony Ruggiero · March 5, 2021

Excerpts:

“Meanwhile, while the Biden administration and the European Union have so far proven unwilling to heed Navalny’s call to target major Russian oligarchs, the allies should at least enforce their existing sanctions by targeting individuals and entities that facilitate sanctions evasion. For example, Navalny’s organization alleges that Bortnikov’s son Denis “acts as a ‘wallet’ for his father’s ill-gotten gains to hide their true beneficiary and avoid existing sanctions.”

The new sanctions are an important first step toward fulfilling Biden’s pledge to stand up to Russian aggression and reinvigorate the transatlantic alliance. But those sanctions are not enough. Additional transatlantic action can help the United States and its allies deter further CW use and uphold global norms against CW use and violations of human rights."

 

18. Why is military history in retreat at universities?

universityworldnews.com · by Nathan M Greenfield ·  March 6, 2021

 

19. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 8, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · March 8, 2021

 

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“If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other.”

- Ulysses S. Grant

 

“A political society does not live to conduct foreign policy; it would be more correct to say that it conducts foreign policy in order to live.”

- George F. Kennan

 

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. U.S., South Korean Negotiators Reach a Cost-Sharing Accord on Troops

2. Cost-sharing deal finally clinched, amount not disclosed

3. Seoul still faces complications despite defense cost-sharing deal

4. The Case for North Korea Sanctions

5. Pentagon Nominee Hints at Downsizing U.S. Forces Korea

6. S. Korea calls on N.K. to take 'wise, flexible' approach toward military exercise with U.S.

7. S.Korea, U.S. Stage Scaled-Down Military Exercise

8. It’s time to get serious about a pressure strategy to contain North Korea

9. North Korea’s New Byungjin: Nuclear Development and Economic Retrenchment

10. Why the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Partnership Matters

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-un a Trillionaire? His Nation Is Loaded in Resources

12. Hyesan lockdown downgraded following strong complaints from locals

13. R.O.K.-U.S. joint military drills skip field training exercises for three years

14. The US and South Korea must stop threatening Kim Jong Un with war drills

15. Chinese Police Arrest North Korean Trade Workers for Illegal Gambling

 

1. U.S., South Korean Negotiators Reach a Cost-Sharing Accord on Troops

WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon Andrew Jeong  

Cost sharing not burden sharing. (title is right subtitle is inaccurate) It is not a burden on either country, It is in the interests of both countries to properly share costs for mutual defense.

Three key points. 

The ROK national assembly must approve the agreement so it is not a done deal and we should not expect a "rubber stamp" from the legislature.

There needs to be some transparency on the agreement rather quickly. Yes both sides have to go through their internal reviews before the agreement is initialed and made public but the details need to be transparent or else antibodies will build up in South Korea.

ROK and US diplomats need to be designing and executing an effective IO program to inform and educate the press, pundits, politicos, and publics and explain to both publics why this agreement is good for them.

 

2. Cost-sharing deal finally clinched, amount not disclosed

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim  

The longer the numbers are not revealed the more resistance to the agreement will build up in the national assembly and the Korean public.

Cost-sharing deal finally clinched, amount not disclosed

 

 

3. Seoul still faces complications despite defense cost-sharing deal

The Korea Times · March 8, 2021

Yes there are so many more issues that must be continually worked.

Here is a list (not all inclusive) of issues that need to be addressed:

·     Operational Control (OPCON) Transition : The conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK.

·     Combined Exercises and Training: These are critical to maintain military readiness as well as supporting the OPCON transition process and they cannot be negotiated  away with the north.

·     U.S. Forces Korea access to training areas : This is a critical problem for maintaining readiness of U.S. forces.

·     U.S.- China Competition and the impact the ROK/U.S. Alliance. This will continue to be a source of alliance friction.

·     Pandemic response : This impacts not only the entire populations of both nations, but also the economies, and military readiness.

·     ROK-Japan historical enmity . Trilateral cooperation is necessary for the security of all three countries.

·     ROK/U.S. Trade Issues : Although China is the ROK’s largest trading partner, economic relations between the ROK and U.S. are a key component of the alliance.

 

4. The Case for North Korea Sanctions

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · March 7, 2021

I am heartened to read this from Professor Kelly. All policy makers need to read and heed this analysis.

This is a key point (one of many): "The immiseration claim is only true in the general sense that sanctions restrict inputs into the North Korean economy, crippling North Korean growth and in turn reducing per capita income. This misses the much more important context of terrible North Korean political-economic decisions going back decades. The North Korean state, specifically the leadership around supreme leader Kim Jong-un, is far more responsible for domestic suffering. If Kim made different decisions—most obviously, spending less on weapons and more on human development—the lives of North Koreans would be vastly different. Also, there are humanitarian carve-outs from sanctions which the regime chooses not to utilize."

 

5. Pentagon Nominee Hints at Downsizing U.S. Forces Korea

english.chosun.com · March 8, 2021

I am not surprised there are Koreans who would pick up on Colin Kahl's remark. But I think they are reading too much into this. As President Biden wrote he is not going to extort the alliance with threats of troop reductions. Dr. Kahl's focus (like POTUS) is on a values based alliance.

That said, he does not want to be focused on a specific number for troop levels. It is all about capabilities and commitment and not just maintaining a specific number of troops (though that is by far the only metric anyone uses to judge commitment). The global force posture review may reveal some necessary adjustments. The review has to take into account all US interests and prioritize them appropriately. There could be adjustments to US force levels but any adjustment will be made based on an objective and thorough assessment of how it best supports US and ROK/US alliance strategic interests. Recall the recent words of other US officials that note the near term priority of the north Korean threat.

 

6. S. Korea calls on N.K. to take 'wise, flexible' approach toward military exercise with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 8, 2021

I think it would be wise if the Unification Ministry did not comment on such things as exercises.  

 

7. S.Korea, U.S. Stage Scaled-Down Military Exercise

english.chosun.com

Scaled down? Maybe that is the message they want to give to the South Korean public. I am pretty sure given the level of north Korean espionage in the South, the regime knows just how "big" the training is. From reports from participants I am not at all worried about any scaling back. As I expected, the exercise planners have designed a robust exercise that will provide critical training to the commanders and staff of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command and its component HQ. 

We should not minimize the importance of the Combined Command Post training and how important it is to maintaining the readiness of the headquarters as well as supporting OPCON transition.

 

8. It’s time to get serious about a pressure strategy to contain North Korea

atlanticcouncil.org Issue Brief by Andrea R. Mihailescu· March 4, 2021

The 12 page report can be downloaded here.

Key point: "Containment of the Kim regime and its military developments will likely outlast any present-day US presidential administration, but American leadership is necessary in the global effort to isolate and put pressure on the nuclear ambitions of Kim Jong-Un."

 

9. North Korea’s New Byungjin: Nuclear Development and Economic Retrenchment

en.asaninst.org · by Go Myong-Hyun

From our good friend Dr. Go Myong-hyun.

Excerpts:

“The combination of economic retrenchment and growing nuclear capability raises the prospect of a more intransigent North Korea when it comes to denuclearization. Economic retrenchment should not be interpreted as an indicator of regime’s desperation, but as an active response by the regime to stabilize the economy. Economic measures are meant to reassure the public that is suffering from economic hardship, but the regime will intensify internal control through propaganda and cult of personality at the same time.

A retrenched economy also implies less dependence on foreign trade, which in turn diminishes the impact of sanctions. Kim Jong Un will dig heels in and demand the United States to negotiate over North Korea’s nuclear state status rather than denuclearization. Kim does not seem to be keen on embarking on nuclear adventurism as witnessed in the 2016-17 period, at least for now. But with the predictable failure of the new five plan looming over the horizon, Kim will soon resort to the only credible leverage that his regime still possesses. The advances that North Korea has achieved on nuclear and missile fronts means that this time the North will not relent until the United States is ready to accept it as a de facto nuclear state.”

 

10.  Why the U.S.-South Korea Nuclear Partnership Matters

The National Interest · by Stephen Greene · March 7, 2021

But President Moon seeks to phase out nuclear power in South Korea.

Excerpt: "Although the domestic nuclear industry in each country faces different challenges—an aging fleet and competition against cheap natural gas in the United States, and social and political opposition in much of South Korea—a renewed emphasis on fighting climate change in both countries may lead each to recognize the value of nuclear power in that effort. This recognition should, in turn, provide the opportunity for bilateral cooperation to strengthen domestic civil nuclear industries in the United States and South Korea, while bolstering what both countries can do together as they support the growth of nuclear power internationally."

 

11. North Korea's Kim Jong-un a Trillionaire? His Nation Is Loaded in Resources

dailynk.com  ·  by Mun Dong Hui · March 8, 2021

Again the first report I read on the natural resource deposits was the 1989 UN report on the Tumen River Area Development Program.

Excerpts:

“According to the United States Geological Survey, “the rare earths are a relatively abundant group of 17 elements composed of scandium, yttrium, and the lanthanides. The elements range in crustal abundance from cerium, the 25th most abundant element of the 78 common elements in the Earth’s crust at 60 parts per million, to thulium and lutetium, the least abundant rare-earth elements at about 0.5 part per million.”

It adds: “The elemental forms of rare earths are iron gray to silvery lustrous metals that are typically soft, malleable, and ductile and usually reactive, especially at elevated temperatures or when finely divided.”

The uses of rare-earth minerals can vary greatly from magnets and speakers to camera lenses and MRI machines.

North Korea could also be rich with gold deposits as well. Recent data from Statistics Korea has revealed that gold deposits in the country are estimated to be about two thousand tons, which is more than forty times the amount present in South Korea. “

 

12. Hyesan lockdown downgraded following strong complaints from locals

dailynk.com  · Mun Dong Hui · March 8, 2021

An indicator of resistance potential and the recognition of such potential by the regime?

The authorities moved to downgrade the lockdown when they realized the widespread anger could lead to unrest in the city, based on the source’s account.

The downgrading of the lockdown order only applies to activities occurring within Hyesan city limits; locals are still not allowed to travel to areas outside of the city.

“People are still prohibited from going out of the city, and outsiders are not allowed in,” the source said,

 

13. R.O.K.-U.S. joint military drills skip field training exercises for three years

donga.com · March 8, 2021

Combined Command Post training and Field training are apples and oranges. There is a lack of understanding of multi-echelon training and how to maintain readiness. 

Yes, aggressive and robust field training is necessary year around to sustain tactical readiness. But field training exercises does not need to be conducted in conjunction with combined command post training events.  And the OPCON transition process will be in no way hindered by not conducting field training in conjunction with combined command post training.

 

14.  The US and South Korea must stop threatening Kim Jong Un with war drills

NK News · Cheehyung Harrison Kim · March 7, 2021  

This is behind the pay wall so it is not useful like most articles behind a paywall. I did get a chance to read the entire essay and I have to say it is based on dangerous analysis and thinking and a lock of understanding of military operations, readiness, and deterrence. The author tries to ameliorate some of the extreme ideas with some mention of the importance of military training but he just does not grasp how critically important is training at all levels.

If we terminate combined training then we will have to consider ending the alliance and withdrawing all US troops from the peninsula. This is exactly what Kim Jong-un wants and is the reason for north Korea propaganda that criticizes combined training and exercises.

 

15. Chinese Police Arrest North Korean Trade Workers for Illegal Gambling

rfa.org by Jieun Kim

You do what you must to survive.

Excerpts:

“It’s been a shock to people here in Dandong that the North Korean trade officials were playing mahjong for 100 to 200 yuan per game all day long. Even Chinese people who love gambling are hesitant to use three to five thousand yuan in a single day,” said the second source.

The second source added that many traders appear to owe a lot of money from losses.

“People are curious as to what punishment the authorities in Pyongyang will impose on the arrested trade workers. If the gambling was with the intention to earn foreign currency due to the lack of work, this will end with light punishment.

But if it is because the trade workers simply became habitual gamblers, it will be difficult for them to avoid heavy punishment when they are summoned to North Korea,” the source said.

 

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“If we are to have another contest in the near future of our national existence, I predict that the dividing line will not be Mason and Dixon's but between patriotism and intelligence on the one side, and superstition, ambition and ignorance on the other.”

- Ulysses S. Grant

 

“A political society does not live to conduct foreign policy; it would be more correct to say that it conducts foreign policy in order to live.”

- George F. Kennan

 

"A man who has nothing for which he is willing to fight, nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature and has no chance of being free unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself."

- John Stuart Mill