News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. A Bold Peace Offensive to Engage North Korea
2. Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Signs of Daily Life
3. U.S. envoy to visit South Korea next week: sources
4. North Korea has 24 COVID-19 quarantine facilities for the military
5. Individual field responsibility system considered a success in Yanggang Province
6. Will Biden finally declare the Korean War over? - Responsible Statecraft
7. Red Cross Pulls Foreign Staff Out of North Korea as Quarantine Measures Intensify
8. U.S. Congress agrees to maintain current scale of USFK
9. Resetting With North Korea
10. North Korea Publicly Executes Smuggler for Violating COVID-19 Quarantine Rule
11. The Limits of the RCEP
12. Culture of Korea, China, and Japan
13. South Korea: Scrap Bill Shielding North Korean Government - Human Rights Watch
14. Ruling party should stop legislation of toxic laws
15. Good Biden-Kim Relationship Necessary to Avoid a Nuclear Crisis
16. North Korea's Biggest Problem: Demographics?
17. Analysis | The difference in how the pandemic has affected the U.S. and South Korea remains staggering
18. Korea Is Spending Its Way to Perdition
19. North Korea Shows Its Softer Side. 'It's Finally Kimchi Season.'
20. Korea Set to Overtake Japan in Exports, Study Shows
21. U.S. Army Pacific chief nominated for top U.S. Forces Korea post, reports say
1. A Bold Peace Offensive to Engage North Korea
warontherocks.com · by Frank Aum · December 4, 2020
A bold proposal is right. Excerpt: This article describes the GRIT framework, provides past examples of its use, including by the two Koreas, and then proposes a potential U.S. GRIT approach to North Korea.
I expect Frank Aum will have a senior role in the Biden Administration in some capacity in DOD or State working Korea/Asia issues.
I think this proposal, while bold challenges, my assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. I just do not think it is interested in security guarantees and is unlikely to show any reciprocity to US initiatives. I am one of those critics who will argue we must prematurely compromise our deterrence and defense capabilities. I think Kim will exploit that and continue to execute his strategy of subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and use of force to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
That said, if we were to implement a comprehensive political warfare strategy that focuses on the long term resolution of the Korea question I could recommend incorporating elements of this proposal as a way to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and support the emergence of new leadership that would support the resolution of the Korea question and the denuclearization of the north.
2. Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Signs of Daily Life
HTTPS://WWW.38NORTH.ORG/2020/12/SOHAE201204/ - by Peter Makowsky and Jack Liu – 4 December 2020
Sohae appears to be a multi-purpose facility - testing of missiles and drying of grain from the harvest. It appears the priority is on the harvest and not on preparations for a missile test. But we must remain vigilant and observe for indicators here.
3. U.S. envoy to visit South Korea next week: sources
Reuters · December 4, 2020
A farewell trip for our Special Representative? I hope our Korean allies are going to recognize him for the great contributions he has made to the strength of the ROK/US alliance. He has led the way for the US administration on working to keep the alliance strong.
4. North Korea has 24 COVID-19 quarantine facilities for the military
dailynk.com – by Jang Seul Gi - December 4, 2020
This is a very important indicator. I think we can assess the regime is very concerned about a COVID outbreak within the military (as am I). I hope we are surveilling and assessing the activity at these facilities.
It may be time to begin to review plans for north Korea instability and regime collapse. Recall the definition of regime collapse that Bob Collins and I developed for the original CONPLAN 5029 planning: "Loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime/party combined with loss of coherency and support of the military."
The regime will collapse when the regime/party can no longer govern across the north from Pyongyang combined with the breakdown of the military (and its three chains of control - military, political, and security) so that the military can no longer support the regime. This leads to uncertainty and complexity about what can happen next. We tried to illustrate the various scenarios in this chart.
It may be time to review contingency planning.
Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse. (2013)
Dr. Bruce Bennett, RAND
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR300/RR331/RAND_RR331.pdf.
When North Korea Falls (2006)
The furor over Kim Jong Il's missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea's catastrophic collapse.
How the regime ends could determine the balance of power in Asia for decades. The likely winner? China
ROBERT D. KAPLAN
OCTOBER 2006 ISSUE
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/
The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military (1996)
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf
5. Individual field responsibility system considered a success in Yanggang Province
dailynk.com · December 4, 2020
A recognition (grudgingly) that the regime must allow market activity. it cannot stamp out the capitalist tendencies of human beings. Capitalism and its economic activity, markets, and trade is a natural occurrence - the regime's socialist worker's paradises of a centrally controlled economy and systemic societal oppression are not normal. But of course, the regime will never adopt free market principles regardless of how efficient capitalism is:
As a result, the farm saw a harvest this year of eight to 10 tons of potatoes per 1,000 pyong of land, reporting an average yield of nine tons. When the collective farm managed the land, the same area of land yielded just five tons of potatoes, but with the land distributed to and farmed by individual farmers, there was a notable increase in the harvest, the source said.
The source noted that a worker from the committee went around to all the private vegetable gardens this harvest season to check the yields and "carried away three tons [of potatoes] on a tractor" based on what was agreed to in the spring.
6. Will Biden finally declare the Korean War over? - Responsible Statecraft
responsiblestatecraft.org · by Simone Chun · December 1, 2020
Not so responsible statecraft in my opinion.
I think it would be a mistake. Some argue that with the end of war declaration it would mean the end of the United Nations Command (which has been a klong term objective of the Kim family regime) On the one hand, north Korea does not really care about this, meaning it will not be viewed as a "security guarantee/." Just being able to say we are no longer at war provides no security for either the north or the South.
And yes, the regime would use this declaration in support of its political warfare strategy in which one line of effort is to dismantle the UNC with the intent to undermine the legitimacy for all US forces on the peninsula .(But we have US forces on the peninsula because of the 1953 Mutual Defense treaty which does not mention north Korea or the DPRK at all. The treaty's intent is to defend both countries from threats in the Asia-Pacific region. US troop presence is not tied to the UNC or to the north Korean threat). It is a political decision made mutually by both countries. And we should keep in. mind if South Korea asks us to leave we will leave in a heartbeat - something we are good at. However, if we want to leave South Korea cannot force us to remain. The treaty does not mandate or designate US troop presence. We can still maintain the treaty without any troops permanent presence as we do in the Philippines, (since 1991), Thailand, and Australia (though we have a fairly robust rotational Marine presence there). And it we want to break the treaty we have to provide one year notice of our intent to withdraw from the treaty).
But there is a very important issue that has never been addressed. If the Armistice was replaced or superseded by some kind of peace regime (the only legal one would be a peace treaty but various names other than a peace treaty are casually tossed around - "end of war declaration," "peace regime,"
We have always "protected" the existence of the UNC for a number of reasons - one to maintain a mechanism to integrate coalition forces should hostilities resume and the second is to maintain access to the 7 UN designated bases in Japan which are critical intermediate staging bases for flow of forces and logistics support (as well as for basing air and sea power to support the war effort). It also provides political "cover" for Japan to allow us to use those bases under the designation of the UN. The UNC was established in the series of UN Security Council resolutions 82-85 which called on countries to support the freedom of the South against the attack from the northern aggressor. The question is does the Security Council have to rescind these resolutions? And if the Security Council did try to rescind them and dismantle the UNC could we veto that action (assuming we wanted to keep the UNC in place)? I do not believe this issue has ever been addressed. As long as I have been working on Korean issues it has always been the intent of US senior leadership in Korea to protect the status of the UNC for the reasons I outlined above.
7. Red Cross Pulls Foreign Staff Out of North Korea as Quarantine Measures Intensify
rfa.org
Another important indicator (and thanks to RFA for this information that is not reported on by the conventional media because they do not have the sources inside north Korea that RFA has).
8. U.S. Congress agrees to maintain current scale of USFK
donga.com – 5 December 2020
Still, given the Chairman's remarks this week on the permanent stationing of troops (and their families) I think the Koreans may be rightly concerned.
A question I have been asked but have not been able to answer sufficiently is whether the Chairman's remarks reflect the prevailing or emerging thinking within DOD and the US government. Are we going to see a radical shift in US national security posture and begin to cut away (or significantly reduce) our permanent overseas basing structure? If anyone knows the sense of the thinking in DOD please share with me if you can.
Just as an aside, this article is based on reporting by VOA. One of the many important contributions of VOA and RFA, et al, is to explain American government and political activities. It is a source of reporting exploited (in a positive way) by foreign news services as a credible source of information about the US. 9just a comment for all those who are unfamiliar with the mission of VOA/RFA/RFA/RL).
9. Resetting With North Korea
realclearworld.com · by Bonnie Kristian
The "proposal" in this excerpt is interpreted in only way by the Kim family regime: victory for its political warfare strategy and long con.
Excerpt: "First, Washington should prioritize more achievable goals pursued in working-level talks. In time, these goals can help normalize North Korea's domestic and foreign policy. They should include an official peace treaty for the Korean War; a nuclear freeze; more open engagement between North and South Korea without U.S. interference; and removal of international sanctions that make aid to and trade with ordinary North Koreans more difficult."
10. North Korea Publicly Executes Smuggler for Violating COVID-19 Quarantine Rule
rfa.org
One thing you can say about the Kim family regime: it knows how to enforce its rule for maximum effect.
Again, note this kind of reporting is not available from many other sources other than RFa and VOA due to their sources inside north Korea.
11. The Limits of the RCEP
project-syndicate.org · by Lee Jong-Wha · December 4, 2020
Editorial conclusion: Even if the COVID-19 pandemic ends soon, the world will be dealing with the economic fallout for a long time to come. US global leadership, in the form of a commitment to revitalize multilateral trade and economic cooperation, could go a long way toward easing the pain - and accelerating the recovery - for all.
12. Culture of Korea, China, and Japan
donga.com – 5 December 2020
A Korean perspective. Similar and different in so many ways.
13. South Korea: Scrap Bill Shielding North Korean Government - Human Rights Watch
hrw.org
This is a terrible action by the South Korean government. It is based on the erroneous assumption about the Kim family regime that this kind of appeasement of the Kim Jong-un will result in positive action by the north. And of course this law is not the humane way to treat escapees/defectors.
Key point: "The South Korean government should abandon its misguided strategy of trying to win favor with Kim Jong Un by cracking down on its own citizens," Sifton said. "Promoting human rights is not at odds with effective foreign policy."
14. Ruling party should stop legislation of toxic laws
donga.com – 5 December 2020
Excerpt: All of these bills have been criticized for potentially toxic. The law banning the dissemination of propaganda leaflets to North Korea, which was unilaterally resolved by the ruling party during the plenary session of the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee on Wednesday is under criticism for violating the Constitutional right of freedom of expression by punishing even attempted crimes.
15. Good Biden-Kim Relationship Necessary to Avoid a Nuclear Crisis
cfr.org · by Jongsoo Lee
A 'good" relationship is dependent on Kim Jong-un and his decision to allow substantive working level negotiations to conclude a good faith agreement that can be verified. The responsibility for a "good" relationship lies with Kim Jong-un. The question is, does he want one?
16. North Korea's Biggest Problem: Demographics?
The National Interest · by Anthony Fensom · December 4, 2020
There is probably no one who has studied north Korean demographics more thoroughly than Nick Eberstadt.
Excerpt: Nicholas Eberstadt, a demographics expert for the American Enterprise Institute, analyzed the North's first population census in 1994, when the population was estimated at around twenty-one million despite "a large chunk of military-age women being removed from the count to hide the corresponding proportion of military-age men."
I have heard the case made the only way to solve the South Korean and the north Korean demographic problem (yes South Korea has a huge one too) is through unification (and I would call that a United Republic of Korea (UROK)).
17. Analysis | The difference in how the pandemic has affected the U.S. and South Korea remains staggering
The Washington Post · December 4, 2020
18. Korea Is Spending Its Way to Perdition
english.chosun.com
19. North Korea Shows Its Softer Side. 'It's Finally Kimchi Season.'
WSJ · by Andrew Jeong
How effective will the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department be in social media influence?
But there can be blowback:
Excerpt:
China-based Uriminzokkiri, or "Only Between Our People" in Korean, appears to be behind the Twitter accounts that were recently taken down, based on whom the two accounts chose to follow first, said Martyn Williams, a fellow at the Stimson Center who has researched North Korea's online activities.
Kim regime officials likely shut down the Twitter accounts after generating media attention in South Korea and attracting online backlash, said Moon Jong-hyun, a North Korea expert at EST Security, a Seoul-based cybersecurity firm.
In response to Mr. Kim's post about Korea's most renowned side dish, an anonymous Twitter user wrote, "Do you get executed if you don't properly make kimchi there?"
"This probably discomforted the North Koreans," Mr. Moon said
North Korea Shows Its Softer Side. 'It's Finally Kimchi Season.'
20. Korea Set to Overtake Japan in Exports, Study Shows
english.chosun.com
The buried lede is except for China all the major countries with the highest expert values are democracies.
21. U.S. Army Pacific chief nominated for top U.S. Forces Korea post, reports say
upi.com – by Elizbeth Shim
If this report is accurate this is one of the many key issues that General LaCamera will face:
Reports of LaCamera's potential appointment to the top U.S. military post on the Korean Peninsula comes at a time of ongoing negotiations between the United States and South Korea over defense burden sharing and conditions-based transition of wartime operation control, or OPCON.
President Moon Jae-in's administration could be seeking a completion of transfer of military command to South Korea before May 2022, the end of Moon's term, but Abrams has said steps toward OPCON have not been completed.
"We've got ways to go," Abrams said in September.
"The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic."
- Josef Stalin
"The only winner in the War of 1812 was Tchaikovsky."
- Solomon Short
Dau Trahn:
Political Struggle:
Dan Van - Action among your people - total mobilization of propaganda, motivational & organizational measures to manipulate internal masses and fighting units
Binh Van - Action among enemy military - subversion, proselytizing, propaganda to encourage desertion, defection and lowered morale among enemy troops.
Dich Van - Action among enemy's people - total propaganda effort to sow discontent, defeatism, dissent, and disloyalty among enemy's population.
Military Struggle:
Phase 1: Organizations and Preparation - building cells, recruiting members, infiltrating organizations, creating front groups, spreading propaganda, stockpiling weapons.
Phase 2: Terrorism - Guerrilla Warfare - kidnappings, terrorist attacks, sabotage, guerrilla raids, ambushes, setting of parallel governments in insurgent areas.
Phase 3: Conventional Warfare - regular formations and maneuver to capture key geographical and political objectives.
