News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Domestic Counterterrorism Strategy Is a Good Start—But Needs More

2. The New Pentagon Slush Fund

3. U.S. Plans to Spend Big on Critical Minerals; Choosing Where Isn’t Easy

4. Top US general in Africa: ‘Wildfire of terrorism’ on march here

5.  Pentagon’s extremism definition will have to find the line between free speech and unit cohesion

6. Taliban enters Kunduz City, seizes control of 16 districts

7. Marine Corps shuts down Southern Command rotational deployment

8. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 21, 2021 | SOF News

9. Keeping the Razor’s Edge: 4th PSYOP Group’s Innovation and Evolution Council

10. A State Department for the Digital Age

11. Assumptionitis in Strategy

12. Old Habits Die Hard: Special Operations Forces, Twenty Years of Counterterrorism, and the New Era of Great Power Competition

13. Myanmar junta leader leaves for Russia conference, second trip abroad since coup

14. First Special Warfare Airmen graduate initial apprentice course for special reconnaissance

15. Missile Defense Agency Lays Out How It Plans To Defend Against Hypersonic Threats

16. Groundhog Day Comes for the Defense Budget

17. Wokeness warriors take over the Pentagon

18. Pentagon Official Details US Missile Defense Strategy

19. Oath Keepers: How a militia group mobilized in plain sight for the assault on the Capitol

20. Opinion | The Two Men Blocking Military Sexual Assault Reform

 

1. The Domestic Counterterrorism Strategy Is a Good Start—But Needs More

defenseone.com · by Thomas S. Warrick and Javed Ali

Conclusion: On balance, yesterday’s domestic counterterrorism strategy is an important first step forward—but releasing the strategy is the easy part. The hard work starts now.

 

2. The New Pentagon Slush Fund

defenseone.com · by Andrew Lautz

A slush fund? Reject the PDI? I certainly hope not. PDI and OCO are apples and oranges.

Conclusion: “By the time the Biden administration proposed mothballing OCO earlier this year, lawmakers and experts from across the ideological spectrum recognized it had become an unaccountable, off-budget fund relieving policymakers of the pressure from Budget Control Act, or BCA, spending caps. In a post-BCA, no-caps era, PDI seemingly is the new DOD slush fund, putting upward pressure on a Pentagon budget that is sorely in need of downsizing. Congress should reject PDI before it’s too late.

 

3. U.S. Plans to Spend Big on Critical Minerals; Choosing Where Isn’t Easy

WSJ · by Alistair MacDonald

Probably one of the most important strategic issues of our time. (along with microchips and the cyber domain writ large)

 

4. Top US general in Africa: ‘Wildfire of terrorism’ on march here

militarytimes.com · by Mosa'ab Elshamy · June 19, 2021

Excerpts: “I am concerned about the security situation across a band of Africa,” from the Sahel region in the west to the Horn of Africa, Townsend told reporters. He noted deadly attacks by al-Qaida- and Islamic State-linked jihadis and al-Shabab.

“All of them are on the march,” he said.

African neighbors are helping governments deal with the threat, but, he added, “all of that does not seem to be sufficient enough to stop what I call ... (the) wildfire of terrorism that’s sweeping that region.”

 

5. Pentagon’s extremism definition will have to find the line between free speech and unit cohesion

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 18, 2021

Yes, we absolutely have to find the right balance and get this right or we are going to do long term damage to the force.

 

6. Taliban enters Kunduz City, seizes control of 16 districts

longwarjournal.org · by Bill Roggio · June 20, 2021

Excerpt: The Taliban currently controls 116 of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, while 192 districts are contested, according to FDD’s Long War Journal’s study of the security situation in Afghanistan [See Mapping Taliban Contested and Controlled Districts in Afghanistan].

 

7. Marine Corps shuts down Southern Command rotational deployment

marinecorpstimes.com · by Philip Athey · June 20, 2021

Excerpts: “The Corps is cutting costs from all over its budget in an attempt to rebuild the Corps for a fight with China.

In 2021 the Corps scrapped its tank units and started reducing the number of infantry battalions it has in the ranks.

The 2022 budget proposal also calls for the Corps to continue shrinking as it looks to save money.

Though the Corps has ended the Southern Command rotational deployment, there is no sign that the Corps will end the special purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force deployments to Central Command or Africa Command.

The cut to the rotational deployment coincides with the Marine Corps’ move to make Marine Corps Forces South a three-star position led by Lt. Gen. David Bellon, who also commands Marine Corps Forces Reserve.

 

8. Special Operations News Update - Monday, June 21, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 21, 2021

 

9. Keeping the Razor’s Edge: 4th PSYOP Group’s Innovation and Evolution Council

madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · by Trisha E. Wyman, Ashley Franz Holzmann, Robert Kava, John Kozlowski,  Vu Tran · June 21, 2021

Excellent initiative by 4th PSYOP Group.

Excerpt:  “Sustained innovation has always been an elusive goal for Commanders, even within the SOF community. Regular internal personnel movement, overall force turnover, and cultural obstacles often combined to stifle innovation. In typical Army fashion, Commanders of the past believed that innovation could be tasked into existence. The belief that throwing enough people and money at a challenge will result in innovation is common.

Looking at the IEC, it is tempting to believe that this was the case, but the truth is more nuanced. The appearance of innovation and actual innovation are two very different things. Understanding this is key to successfully replicating the effort in other organizations.

 

10. A State Department for the Digital Age

warontherocks.com · by Ferial Ara Saeed · June 21, 2021

Excerpts: “America faces a tidal wave of challenges wrought by unprecedented and ubiquitous advances in emerging technologies and the rise of China as an anti-democratic economic superpower. The State Department has a leading role to play in addressing both challenges. Consolidating all technology issues under a single undersecretary would significantly strengthen the department’s hand in the interagency policymaking process. The department is better positioned than its interagency counterparts to articulate a national emerging technology policy that accounts for the full range of U.S. national interests, not just those related to security. Multidimensionality is the State Department’s core comparative advantage. Consolidation would reinforce it. No other agency has the mandate, the expertise, and the credibility to compel consideration of that vital perspective. Without it, the United States risks undermining its complex geostrategic interests with over-securitized responses to rivalry with China and the related, evolving challenges presented by the most rapid technological change ever experienced in human history.

The State Department’s technology policy apparatus was built for an era that no longer exists. This moment calls urgently for a bold reorganization. The past is never a good place to live.

 

11. Assumptionitis in Strategy

thestrategybridge.org · by Mie Augier, Sean F. X. Barrett, and William F. Mullen · June 21, 2021

I did not know assumptions were an "itus."

Excerpts: “Assumptionitis sets in when one set of actors project their own objectives and values onto others. One problem with the Rational Man perspective–or any other theory that assumes homogeneity across preferences, cultures, and countries; is that it does not always happen that people invest the time to try to understand where others, e.g., countries, cultures, are coming from. As a result, one set of actors assumes that others have the same objectives as themselves even though two groups rarely agree on what is rational. This approach to forming assumptions about an opponent’s decisions or actions is a poor foundation upon which to build strategic thinking and planning. It can, for instance, lead to neglecting the nuances in how countries view national power, which influences their strategic objectives, how their strategic fears may influence what they do, and the operational code behind their decision making.[10] Additionally, when homogeneity is assumed and static tools and models are applied to a changing environment, another deleterious assumption occurs: that the enemy is static and is not also trying to enact countermeasures and identify competitive advantages to exploit.[11]

....

Assumptionitis undermines useful strategy and strategic thinking. In this article, we identified some of its symptoms, as well as an empirically grounded, interdisciplinary approach we hope can be useful. While there are certainly others that deserve attention, we hope our recognition of these pitfalls can help us build some immunity against the unhealthy long-term effects assumptionitis can wreak on behaviorally realistic, meaningful strategy.

 

12. Old Habits Die Hard: Special Operations Forces, Twenty Years of Counterterrorism, and the New Era of Great Power Competition

mwi.usma.edu · by Jack Watling · June 21, 2021

If old habits die hard perhaps some of our "good old " habits from prior to the GWOT will re-emerge.

The SF ODA used to know how to operate "unplugged" without being "wrapped in the support" surrounding counterterrorism operations. In fact the SF ODA was designed based on the assumption it would have to operate independently with little to know support - as they say, alone and unafraid. Perhaps we can revitalize some of those good old habits and update them for the modern era.

But this is quite a conclusion. Note the reference to hyper conventional which I would argue is one of the biggest problems we have in SOF today. But that is of course the direction the bureaucracy drives special operations.

Conclusion: “None of these challenges are likely to surprise those within the special operations community, nor are they impossible to solve. But for units to address these problems they require the time and space to do so creatively. Perhaps the most important prerequisite for special operations forces optimizing for great power competition, therefore, is the recognition by policymakers that throwing them into the breach to confront every challenge comes at a cost. The political convenience of special operations forces threatens their readiness for tasks where their skills and capabilities are essential enablers for the joint force. If policymakers will not allow special operations forces to conduct operations unplugged from the command structure, then they will find it difficult to do so when it is necessary. If the force is overcommitted, it will take short cuts that form predictable patterns. It may be highly effective, but it will also become hyperconventional.

Leaders have the right to choose what they want from the special operations community. Since that community is limited in size, however, policymakers should think twice when they deploy it—or else they may find themselves with special operations forces that will struggle to offer assurance when faced with a great power competitor.

 

13. Myanmar junta leader leaves for Russia conference, second trip abroad since coup

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · June 20, 2021

 

14. First Special Warfare Airmen graduate initial apprentice course for special reconnaissance

specialwarfaretw.af.mil

 

15. Missile Defense Agency Lays Out How It Plans To Defend Against Hypersonic Threats

thedrive.com · by Brett Tingley and Joseph Trevithick · June 19, 2021

 

16. Groundhog Day Comes for the Defense Budget

realcleardefense.com · by Mackenzie Eaglen

Excerpts: “Congress must push the Pentagon to think beyond simply repurposing and rehashing of the Third Offset strategy and overemphasizing R&D. It is no longer a sufficient framework to address the threats facing the United States—particularly given the rapid pace at which China has modernized militarily. Congress should restore procurement funding across the board and push military leaders to seek a more balanced ratio between research and development and the building of new systems.

Pentagon leaders are touting their hard choices this year to cut readiness and procurement to spend more on research and development. However, the truly tough calls will be picking winners and losers from the R&D accounts and moving ready programs into production quickly. The approach of “let 1,0000 flowers bloom” is over. Putting meaningful new capability into the hands of warfighters in the next one to five years is the more serious solution to a here-and-now problem and a major missed opportunity of the Biden defense budget.

 

17.  Wokeness warriors take over the Pentagon

Washington Examiner · by Mike Berry · June 19, 2021

I think this whole "woke" thing is way overblown; however, it seems the author is in a place to know these things. But I do hope the author is wrong in that the new definition of extremism the pentagon adopts will not include constitutionally protected free speech.

I am heartened that the pentagon would have someone like Mr. Berry on the CEWG and he should absolutely not be removed from it.

Conclusion: “Some have warned me that simply writing this article will likely result in my removal from the CEWG, or possibly even the Marine Corps, in which I continue to proudly serve as a reservist. But I love my country too much not to sound the alarm. And if my love of America is what leads to my removal, then so be it, as long as my discharge papers state "discharged for love of country."

 

18.  Pentagon Official Details US Missile Defense Strategy

eurasiareview.com · by DoD News · June 21, 2021

 

19. Oath Keepers: How a militia group mobilized in plain sight for the assault on the Capitol

CBS News

Then there is this. They may be "well trained." But possibly not in OPSEC and COMSEC.

 

20. Opinion | The Two Men Blocking Military Sexual Assault Reform

The New York Times · by The Editorial Board · June 19, 2021

 

------------------

 

“The truth is that everything starts from the top. What determines your failure or success is your style of leadership and the chain of command that you design.”

- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War

 

"When you have assumed these names – good, modest, truthful, rational, a man of equanimity, and magnanimous – take care that you do not change these names; and if you should lose them, quickly return to them."

- Marcus Aurelius

 

"First and last is the question of values. Most conflict researchers cited here, including the author, try to be objective in their analyses. The ultimate normative purpose of this kind of conflict analysis, though, and the objective that has attracted most scholars to the subject, is to help all of us—political activists, policy makers, and scholars—understand how to build more just and peaceful societies."

- Ted Gurr, Why Men Rebel

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. envoy hopes N. Korea will accept offer to meet 'anytime, anywhere without preconditions'

2. Sung Kim discusses N. Korean nuclear with S. Korea and Japan

3. U.S. nuclear envoy waves olive branch at Kim Jong-un

4. Bulldog Brigade in Busan

5. Kim acknowledges food problems in North Korea

6. N.Korean Hackers Target S.Korean Submarine Data

7. North Korea's revised Administrative Penalties Law strengthens punishments for violating air raid shelter-related regulations

8. Young couple arrested while trying to flee across the China-North Korea border near Hoeryong

9. Problems in media reports related to NK

10. Template for reunification

11. Hyundai Motor buys US robotics firm from Softbank for M$880

12. north Korea: ＜Farm investigation＞ Poor harvest predicted already. Goods and money are in short supply. 30% of farms are "food insecure households".

13. North Korea: a glimpse through the looking glass… Part 1

14. Sullivan says comments by DPRK leader "interesting signal" - Xinhua

15. North Korea Has Two Months' Worth Of Food Left As Deadly Famine Risk Rises

16. White House says comments by North Korea's Kim Jong Un are 'interesting signal'

17. Ukraine roots out ring behind hacks on US universities, South Korean firms

18. North Korean hacking group allegedly behind breach of South Korean nuclear institute

19. The Lazarus heist: How North Korea almost pulled off a billion-dollar hack

20. NI man on his dash to escape North Korea after COVID-19 hit

 

1. U.S. envoy hopes N. Korea will accept offer to meet 'anytime, anywhere without preconditions'

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 21, 2021

Emphasis on "without preconditions." This is necessary to counter the regime's political warfare strategy. We are willing to negotiate. It is up to the regime to act responsibly. 

Excerpt: "We continue to hope that the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach and our offer to meet anywhere, anytime without preconditions," Kim said, referring to the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea."

 

2. Sung Kim discusses N. Korean nuclear with S. Korea and Japan

donga.com · June 21, 2021

We do not need to go to Panmunjom to contact the north.

Excerpt: “We haven’t heard about his plan to contact the North by visiting Panmunjom during his visit to Korea,” said a South Korean government insider. But as Kim Jung Un mentioned the possibility of talks, there is still a chance that he would try to contact the North."

 

3. U.S. nuclear envoy waves olive branch at Kim Jong-un

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · June 20, 2021

It is interesting how different media organizations interpret events and statements. (at least headline editors!)

US policy in a nutshell: diplomacy, implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions, stern deterrence: “Our policy calls for a calibrated, practical approach that is open to and will explore diplomacy with the DPRK,” said Kim at the beginning of the meeting.

“As we seek to make practical progress that increases the security of the United States and our allies, we continue to hope that the DPRK will respond positively to our outreach and our offer to meet anywhere, anytime without, preconditions.”

Kim was using the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

However, Kim was quick to stress that Washington will enforce United Nations Security Council sanctions resolutions on Pyongyang to counter any threats.

Kim urged all UN member states and Security Council members to “address the threat posed to the international community by the DPRK.”

 

4. Bulldog Brigade in Busan

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Part of "stern deterrence." A lot of firepower in one brigade combat team. 

 

5.  Kim acknowledges food problems in North Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim and Jeong Yong-Soo · June 20, 2021

Hard to deny when some 25 million people are going hungry. But does he really and sincerely accept responsibility? The Propaganda and Agitation Department can only cover up so much with its messaging.

 

6.  N.Korean Hackers Target S.Korean Submarine Data

english.chosun.com

Perhaps the north thinks the ROK is farther along in the development of a nuclear powered submarine.

 

7. North Korea's revised Administrative Penalties Law strengthens punishments for violating air raid shelter-related regulations

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · June 21, 2021

As far as I know there has not been an air attack on north Korean territory since 1953. But I guess they must maintain their vigilance. Or maybe Kim is planning something that could cause an air strike? :-) (note sarcasm)

But we do know that north Korea is deathly afraid of air power and they still teach (and propagandize about) how the country was devastated by US air power in the Korean War.

 

8. Young couple arrested while trying to flee across the China-North Korea border near Hoeryong

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · June 21, 2021

Another north Korean Shakespearean tragedy. Young lovers watching South Korean dramas want a better life and try to escape.

 

9. Problems in media reports related to NK

The Korea Times · by Yang Moo-jin · June 21, 2021

Interesting commentary and critique of VOA and RFA. However, I think his criticism is not accurate because the fact is there are some big differences between the ROK and US on such issues as human rights and north-South engagements (and sanctions relief to facilitate it). The query to the State department to be able to explain US policies on issues and then they accurately report the information the State Department provides.  

I really have to throw the BS flag on this commentary from the author:

“By citing these VOA reports, some domestic media came out with provocative articles claiming that the U.S. pressured the ROK government indirectly, or that human rights are feared to become a "detonator" for the ROK-U.S. summit, stretching the meaning as if the two countries had significant differences ahead of the meeting.

U.S. media outlets such as Voice of America and Radio Free Asia promptly request comments from the U.S. State Department with only a fragmentary part of the contents mentioned by high-ranking officials such as the President and Minister of the Republic of Korea related to North Korea policy, excluding the overall context. They are inducing the expansion and reproduction of related issues as if there is a large difference in the stances on North Korea policy between the ROK and the U.S.”

​I know most journalists at the Korean Service at VOA and RFA.​ In nearly every query to me they never assume that I have all the context. They will provide it and provide links to other supporting and clarifying information. They do not play "gotcha" with State or with anyone they interview.

I think the author is merely trying to make excuses for foolish comments from the likes of Moon Chung-in. You cannot blame VOA and RFA for Moon Cung-in's ignorant and outrageous comments. He has a long history of making them.

​But this does illustrate one thing. ​VOA and RFA are well respected and people value and listen to and watch their reporting. Of course, like the author, not all people are pleased with it.

 

10. Template for reunification

The Korea Times · by Mark Peterson · June 20, 2021

A short but interesting essay on Korean unification. You can agree or disagree with the author but I agree with him that culture will be a critical component of the unification process.

Excerpt: “I've written about the "12 pillars of Korean culture" in this column over the last year. I've looked at the past, the history of Korea, but for this exercise I've used the same "12 pillars" of Korean culture as a structure for eventual reunification. Each of these is a cultural quality either unique to Korea, or strongly pronounced in Korea. Let's look at them here, not only as historical values, but as indicators of how Korea can successfully use its cultural heritage for unification.

 

11. Hyundai Motor buys US robotics firm from Softbank for M$880

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 21, 2021

 

12. north Korea: ＜Farm investigation＞ Poor harvest predicted already. Goods and money are in short supply. 30% of farms are "food insecure households".

asiapress.org

An unbelievable hard life for most of the 25 million Koreans living in the north.

Excerpts: “Now, North Korea is amid a "rural mobilization". Since mid-May, city dwellers from all over the country have been going to cooperative farms to help farmers by sowing corn seeds, planting rice, and weeding.

Last year, the "rural mobilization" was scaled down due to the concern over the coronavirus spreading. However, this year, under the policy of prioritizing agriculture from the beginning of the year, "urban residents are taking turns to go to rural areas under the instruction of the authorities that all those who can hold a spoon must go to rural areas," said the reporting partners.

In this year's rural mobilization, each enterprise or group was assigned a farm to work on, and the residents would visit the farm two to three times a week. In addition to the "commuting" method, a new method has been introduced in which those who are stationed at the farms are selected to be in charge of the designated fields until harvest. The chronic shortage of labour on the farm has been solved for the moment, and the farm workers are in a welcome mood.

However, some cooperative farm leaders and residents are already pessimistic that agricultural production will worsen this year.

 

13. North Korea: a glimpse through the looking glass… Part 1

newsi.co.za · by Terence Corrigan · June 20, 2021

north Korean "exceptionalism:"

While self-reliance is an ordinal principle of Juche, it embraces much more. North Korea’s 2009 constitution expunged references to Marxism, with Juche being presented as a uniquely Korean nationalist and socialist ideology. In this sense, it is a distinct, replacement ideology from those of its erstwhile Marxist peers. It provided ideological justification for the idiosyncratic conduct of the North Korean state.

This ideological framework underlines North Korea’s sense of exceptionalism. Within its official worldview, it has achieved a near perfect society and without question, the socio-political philosophy to underwrite it. Indeed, Juche is the envy of the world, something that allies may seek to emulate, and foes necessarily to destroy.

North Korea consequently remains fiercely independent and insular with respect to its own territory. As Grace Lee, a scholar of North Korea, has written: ‘In practice, this political stance has caused North Korea to truly become a hermit kingdom because of the huge stigma Juche places upon cooperation with outside powers. According to Juche as interpreted by the DPRK, yielding to foreign pressure or tolerating foreign intervention would make it impossible to maintain chaju, or the defense of national independence and sovereignty.’

 

14. Sullivan says comments by DPRK leader "interesting signal" - Xinhua

xinhuanet.com

A report from China. I thought I would read the Chinese "curse:" "May you live in interesting times."

 

15. North Korea Has Two Months' Worth Of Food Left As Deadly Famine Risk Rises

ladbible.com

Key points. Repression and ideological training are the only ways to prevent resistance and ensure Kim remains in power. Who does Kim fear more: the US or the Korean people in the north?

Excerpts: “Meanwhile, amid the food crisis and struggling economy, the country has cracked down on repression of its citizens.

Although global internet is banned, other outside influences have also been stopped. The dictator has brought in harsh sanctions on what young people watch, with K-pop banned - Kim previously described the genre as a 'vicious cancer' plaguing the youth of North Korea.

He believes it is corrupting young people, changing their 'attire, hairstyles, speeches and behaviours'.

Anyone guilty of watching South Korean TV dramas could see offenders - even high school students - serve between five and 15 years of hard labour, as reported by the BBC.

Disciplinary officers also roam the streets to make remove men with long hair or women with inappropriate clothing.

North Korean defector Jung Gwang-il told The New York Times: "Young North Koreans think they owe nothing to Kim Jong-un.

"He must reassert his ideological control on the young if he doesn't want to lose the foundation for the future of his family's dynastic rule."

 

16.  White House says comments by North Korea's Kim Jong Un are 'interesting signal'

The Strait Times

Yes, let's hear a clear signal from the regime:

"His comments this week we regard as an interesting signal and we will wait to see whether they are followed up with any kind of more direct communication to us about a potential path forward," Mr Sullivan said. "The clear signal they could send is to say 'yes, let's do it. Let's sit down and begin negotiations.'"

 

17.  Ukraine roots out ring behind hacks on US universities, South Korean firms

americanmilitarynews.com · by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty · June 20, 2021

 

18. North Korean hacking group allegedly behind breach of South Korean nuclear institute

ZDNet · by Cho Mu-Hyun

No surprise. The "all-purpose sword" is in full use and strikes again in South Korea.

 

19. The Lazarus heist: How North Korea almost pulled off a billion-dollar hack

BBC 

For those unfamiliar with this "heist" this is a useful account.

 

20. NI man on his dash to escape North Korea after COVID-19 hit

belfastlive.co.uk · by Shauna Corr · June 21, 2021

 

------------------

 

“The truth is that everything starts from the top. What determines your failure or success is your style of leadership and the chain of command that you design.”

- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies of War

 

"When you have assumed these names – good, modest, truthful, rational, a man of equanimity, and magnanimous – take care that you do not change these names; and if you should lose them, quickly return to them."

- Marcus Aurelius

 

"First and last is the question of values. Most conflict researchers cited here, including the author, try to be objective in their analyses. The ultimate normative purpose of this kind of conflict analysis, though, and the objective that has attracted most scholars to the subject, is to help all of us—political activists, policy makers, and scholars—understand how to build more just and peaceful societies."

- Ted Gurr, Why Men Rebel

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. US Civil-Military Relations Are Complicated, But Not Broken

2. Exclusive Dispatch: US Guardsmen Train Ukrainian Troops for War Against Russia

3.  AP Interview: Former president says US failed in Afghanistan

4. How Five Hong Kong Protesters Escaped by Speedboat, Found Freedom in the U.S.

5. Inside US Pacific plan to combat China

6. Australia embraces U.S. — and pays the price with China

7. The World Relies on One Chip Maker in Taiwan, Leaving Everyone Vulnerable

8. Extremism Has Spread Into the Mainstream

9. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan: A strategic blunder in the making

10. The Real Problem With Globalization

11. Biden struggles to sell democracy abroad when it faces challenges at home

12. The Scholar Speaking Out On China's Crackdown On Intellectuals

13. 'War on Terror': Are big military deployments over?

14. US to build a standing force on Australia's doorstep to take on China

15. Russian Ambassador Returns 'Optimistic' to Washington

16. U.S. Government Vaccine Donation Arrives in Taiwan | American Institute in Taiwan

17. The Forgotten Genius of the Scots

 

1. US Civil-Military Relations Are Complicated, But Not Broken

defenseone.com · by Joseph J. Collins

Excerpts: “Crises come in many forms, but like the COVID-19 pandemic, the Cuban missile crisis, or the Iran-hostage saga, we generally know one when we see one. There is no crisis of command, though the civil-military relationship, fraught with friction, is often stressed. And through the sturm und drang, it is possible to see four core truths.

The first is the heavy influence of the policy environment in which civil-military relations take place. 

...

The second, related truth is that the most important aspect of civil-military relations is where presidents, cabinet officers, and the senior-most military officers come together to make the most critical decisions.

...

The third core truth in contemporary civil-military relations is that the relationship depends on the quality of the senior military and civilian players.

...

The dramatic rise in dysfunctional partisanship in our society has created a fourth core truth in contemporary civil-military relations. When society suffers from maladies such as racism, drug abuse, and hyper-partisanship, those ills will be reflected in and around the armed forces despite the need for good order and discipline. Good civil-military relations require effective congressional oversight and for the normally conservative military to stay above partisan politics.

Conclusion: "For serving and retired officers, there may be no better civil-military advice than Elihu Root gave at the dedication of the Army War College in 1908: “Do not cease to be citizens of the United States. The conditions of Army life are such as to narrow your views. Strive to broaden your sympathies by mingling with those outside of the service and learning from them the things they can teach you. As you are good soldiers, be good citizens.”

 

2. Exclusive Dispatch: US Guardsmen Train Ukrainian Troops for War Against Russia

coffeeordie.com · by Nolan Peterson · June 18, 2021

Excerpts: “The US has provided Ukraine with roughly $2 billion in security assistance since the war began in 2014. When it comes to the war in the Donbas, US military aid has a focused, tactical utility, giving Ukraine’s armed forces the modern military technology necessary to increase their survivability. US assistance also allows the Ukrainians to fight with limited means without relying on Soviet-era warfare tactics, thereby reducing the risk of collateral damage.

Ukraine has a long way to go in modernizing its armed forces, mainly when it comes to producing high-tech tactical battlefield tools, such as counterbattery radars and night vision systems. Ukraine also lags in its ability to field certain big-ticket items, including warplanes and anti-aircraft defenses. In that broader modernization effort, US assistance plays a key role, particularly in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s littoral navy.

But assisting Ukraine’s military transformation requires more than dollars and weapons. For their part, the US soldiers at Yavoriv take pride in the reaffirming message their presence sends to Ukraine’s soldiers and civilians.

“I would say probably the bulk of the people who serve in the US military probably have some aversion to bullies and have some kind of strength to stand up,” Kelsey said. “So it’s encouraging for me to see that I’m helping somebody beat a bully.”

 

3. AP Interview: Former president says US failed in Afghanistan

fox13memphis.com · by Kathy Gannon  

Hope he is not looking for a special immigrant visa. (note sarcasm)

Excerpts: “The international community came here 20 years ago with this clear objective of fighting extremism and bringing stability ... but extremism is at the highest point today. So they have failed,” he said.

Their legacy is a war-ravaged nation in “total disgrace and disaster."

“We recognize as Afghans all our failures, but what about the bigger forces and powers who came here for exactly that purpose? Where are they leaving us now?" he asked and answered: "In total disgrace and disaster.”

 

4. How Five Hong Kong Protesters Escaped by Speedboat, Found Freedom in the U.S.

WSJ · by Chao Deng and Joyu Wang

Kudos to our State Department, Taiwan and Samuel Chu. 

These men may have barely known each other before they escaped but I bet they have bonded for life.

And this is what immigrants who seek freedom in the US often do. They find ways to give back.

Kenny moved to Washington, D.C., where he lives in an apartment with other Hong Kong refugees. He co-founded an organization to help protesters from Hong Kong.

Ray and Tommy stayed in New York and rented a basement apartment together. Both want to attend college and join the U.S. military.

On June 4, the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre, when protesters were killed as Chinese troops suppressed pro-democracy demonstrations, they joined a gathering in New York City’s Washington Square Park. They held up a black flag calling for Hong Kong’s freedom, lighted commemorative candles and snapped photos of themselves with others from Hong Kong.

Referring to the student protesters at Tiananmen, Tommy said, “We are just the same group of people suppressed by the Communist Party.”

 

5. Inside US Pacific plan to combat China

news.com.au · by Jamie Seidel · June 17, 2021

Excerpt: “Mr Ratner went on to say such a force would need “new operational concepts, modernised and high-end ready forces, and capable allies and partners proficient in their warfighting roles”.

 

6. Australia embraces U.S. — and pays the price with China

NBC News · by Mahalia Dobson · June 20, 2021

How this plays out may have significant influence on the Quad and the community of democracies.

 

7. The World Relies on One Chip Maker in Taiwan, Leaving Everyone Vulnerable

WSJ · by Yang Jie, Stephanie Yang and Asa Fitch

What are our strategic interests in Taiwan? We had better diversify our supply chain!

Excerpts: ”Analysts say it will be difficult for other manufacturers to catch up in an industry that requires hefty capital investments. And TSMC can’t make enough chips to satisfy everyone—a fact that has become even clearer amid a global shortage, adding to the chaos of supply bottlenecks, higher prices for consumers and furloughed workers, especially in the auto industry.

The situation is similar in some ways to the world’s past reliance on Middle Eastern oil, with any instability on the island threatening to echo across industries. Companies in Taiwan, including smaller makers, generated about 65% of global revenues for outsourced chip manufacturing during the first quarter of this year, according to Taiwan-based semiconductor research firm TrendForce. TSMC generated 56% of the global revenues.

Being dependent on Taiwanese chips “poses a threat to the global economy,” research firm Capital Economics recently wrote.

 

8. Extremism Has Spread Into the Mainstream

defenseone.com · by Cynthia Miller-Idriss

This proposal will probably end up in the same place as the proposal for public health approach to gun safety.

Excerpts: “To be fair, the American government hasn’t entirely ignored prevention. In March, the U.S. government doubled its funding to support local prevention efforts, from $10 million to $20 million. The funding, though, is orders of magnitude smaller than investments made by other, less populous countries. Those resources are also housed exclusively within the federal agency devoted to security—in contrast to the multi-agency approaches overseas. The Department of Homeland Security also recently renamed its Office of Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships and pledged to take a community-based approach to prevention. This is a promising development, but much depends on its implementation.

In the end, the best hope for combatting extremism in the U.S. will be for the federal government to empower local communities to take the reins. By pairing local initiatives with clear, national evidence about what works, fighting extremism isn’t as unwieldy as it may seem. For example, we learned from a study of 750 parents and caregivers that they needed only seven minutes of reading to improve their understanding of how radical ideas spread online.

 

9. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan: A strategic blunder in the making

orfonline.org · by Kamal Davar

A view from India.

 

10. The Real Problem With Globalization

The Atlantic · by Zachary D. Carter · June 19, 2021

Excerpts: “As an experiment in international co-operation,” Keynes wrote to London, “the conference has been an extraordinary success.”

Cooperation, but not self-sacrifice. The leaders of the most powerful nations at the conference unabashedly pursued national interests throughout, and weaker countries were frequently forced to beg stronger allies for favors. But the collective recognition that the age of laissez-faire in international finance had been a disaster for both commerce and democracy had produced a sense of mutual self-interest in producing a new regulatory system. Governments recognized a responsibility to ensure that trade actually did generate mutual prosperity and that finance did not destroy more than it created. State power had to be deployed, not constrained.

The achievements at Bretton Woods should not be overstated. Whatever White’s secret efforts, the Soviet government ultimately refused to ratify the accord, which failed to tame the violence of the Cold War. American excesses in Vietnam would prove integral to the destruction of the Bretton Woods system itself. President Richard Nixon chose to sever the connection between the dollar and gold in 1971 to maintain the extraordinary expense of the war. As a cure-all for authoritarian violence, Bretton Woods failed.

But for 25 years, America and its allies enjoyed unprecedented economic growth and financial stability. Democracies working together through international law had opened a new prosperous economic paradigm. It may be too much to ask for a treaty on trade and finance to repair the U.S. relationship with China, provide functional mechanisms to combat climate change, and turn back the rising tide of economic inequality around the world. 

But we will not solve any of those problems if we do not try. And we cannot solve them on our own.

 

11. Biden struggles to sell democracy abroad when it faces challenges at home

The Washington Post · by Ashley Parker, Anne Gearan and Sean Sullivan · June 19, 2021

Yep. Sell democracy? Do we really need to sell it? But what would you rather have than democracy? Is anyone willing to say they want to give up on democracy? On consent of the governed? On self-determination of government? On life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness? Does anyone think there can really be benevolent dictators or benevolent authoritarian regimes?

 

12. The Scholar Speaking Out On China's Crackdown On Intellectuals

Barron's · by Laurie Chen

Excerpts: "It is very important not to stop speaking out. You need to comment on politics and society; that's how you participate in it," he said.

He remains an anomaly. Since President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, China's vibrant intellectual circles gradually fell silent as Party critics were arrested, fired from their institutions or forced to flee abroad.

"Ten years ago, perhaps every weekend in every corner there would be a large number of salons and meetings (in Beijing)," he said.

"But now, this wonderful scene does not exist anymore... everyone always talks about one issue when we meet: who's disappeared or been detained recently. Everyone is waiting to see who will be next."

In a sign of the sweeping changes to come, a leaked 2013 internal communique -- known as Document No. 9 -- warned against promoting "false ideological trends" such as constitutional democracy, civil society and press freedom.

 

13. 'War on Terror': Are big military deployments over?

BBC 

I think it is doubtful.

 

14. US to build a standing force on Australia's doorstep to take on China

Daily Mail · by Levi Parsons · June 20, 2021

Excerpts: “'A distributed and resilient forward posture must be combined with new warfighting concepts; modernised, highly capable, and ready forces; and capable allied and partner forces to deter any adversary miscalculation, or to respond if necessary,' Mr Ratner said.

The Pentagon is becoming increasingly alarmed about China annexing the disputed island nation of Taiwan, after the totalitarian power stripped nearby Hong Kong of its independence with a litany of oppressive National Security Laws targeting pro-democracy activists.

 

15.  Russian Ambassador Returns 'Optimistic' to Washington

The Moscow Times · by AFP · June 20, 2021

 

16. U.S. Government Vaccine Donation Arrives in Taiwan | American Institute in Taiwan

ait.org.tw · by AIT - Taipei Main Office · June 20, 2021

 

17. The Forgotten Genius of the Scots

The American Conservative · by Brad Littlejohn

Some Sunday reading. I have always considered myself somewhat of a "Lockian liberal" and "Burkian conservative." I suppose that is why this resonates with me. Or perhaps it is being a second generation American with my grandparents from Scotland.

Well worth reading for traditional conservative philosophy. If only we could return to this today rather than the pseudo-conservatism we suffer in today’s political discourse. Of course, we need to do the same on the liberal side as well:-) We have forgotten all the greatness of traditional conservatism and liberalism and what the competition for ideas can do to advance our nation. So much still to learn from history rather than talking head pundits from across the entire political spectrum of cable news. 

Excerpt: “The heart of this empiricism lay in attention to history, which, wrote Hume in his 1748 Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, furnishes “us with materials from which we may form our observations and become acquainted with the regular springs of human action and behaviour.” And just because the “springs” of human behavior were “regular” did not mean that human behavior itself was everywhere the same; on the contrary, the long force of habit and custom was more than capable of generating an immense variety of cultures and laws out of the same basic material of human passions and reason. Thus, the basic lesson to be gleaned from history is not arrogance but humility; precisely because history discloses the stubborn realities of human nature. “It condemns in advance any over-optimistic attempts to achieve ideal or drastically rational political change,” writes Lawrence Bongie in a summary of Hume’s method.

 

----------------

 

"The result of the war has been the vindication of the country’s cause, as against that of section; of manhood over the system of master and slave; of the liberty which means law, right, humanity, over that which is lawless, barbarous, and insolent"

- Joshua Chamberlain, 1867

 

"I am sure if you get away from telling the truth, then there is no place where you stop."

-Under Secretary of State Dean Acheson, May 1947.

 

"In matters of style, swim with the current; in matter of principle, stand like a rock." 

- Thomas Jefferson

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. An “Area Study:” North Korea in A Nutshell

2. What enticements will Sung Kim offer to North Korea?

3. Special North Korean Military Investigation Reveals Combat Reserve Supply Shortages

4. North Korea mistakenly credited with $300,000 in foreign aid to post-coup Myanmar

5. N. Korean leader watches musical performance after key party meeting

6. N. Korea replaces chief of Kim Il-sung University: state media

7. Push to honor Otto Warmbier by renaming street outside North Korean UN mission gets bipartisan support

8. Kim Carefully Nudges the Dialogue Door Open Wider

9. Incoming Vatican Prefect You Heung-sik expected to serve as bridge builder for pope's NK visit

10. Counterattacks have begun

 

1.  An “Area Study:” North Korea in A Nutshell

Small Wars Journal

North Korea in a Nutshell: A Contemporary Overview, by Kongdan Oh and Ralph Hassig

 

2. What enticements will Sung Kim offer to North Korea?

koreatimes.co.kr · by Kang Seung-woo

I hope the answer is that we are offering Kim Jong-un the opportunity to become a responsible member of the international community.

The suspension of exercises will not influence him to come to the negotiating table just as holding the exercises will not influence him to avoid negotiations. We need to stop with these unhelpful beliefs.  Kim will make the decision to negotiate based on his calculus of whether he can achieve his objectives.  As long as he thinks his strategy is working he will continue to execute it.  And the surest way for him to believe his strategy is working is to make concessions or appease him.  It is only when he believes that we will no longer appease him will he consider changing his strategy. Unfortunately we have decades of giving the regime concessions.

If we suspend exercises at the Moon administration's request we may as well begin the withdrawal of US troops and if we do not end the alliance we can put it on the same level as our alliance with the Philippines.  We will never be able to change the security situation if we follow the concessions and appeasement path and we will be putting US forces and US interests at great risk if we are unable to conduct combined alliance military training.  Yes this sounds like hyperbole and over the top commentary but we will really need to do some critical analysis about the possibilities of the way ahead on the Korean peninsula if the Korean leadership will not support military training and instead continues to try to execute fantasy courses of action.

 

Excerpts: “The U.S. side may consider downsizing or suspending its combined military drills with South Korea, scheduled for August among other “carrots” for the resumption of nuclear talks. The North Korean regime has strongly denounced the annual exercises, held biannually in spring and summer, as a rehearsal for invasion.

Last month, President Moon Jae-in also mentioned the impossibility of a full-scale drill, citing the COVID-19 pandemic, although many believe that his reference had to do with his last-ditch efforts to improve inter-Korean ties before his presidency ends in May of next year.

 

3. Special North Korean Military Investigation Reveals Combat Reserve Supply Shortages

rfa.org · by Myungchul Lee

Another important indicator, not only of declining combat readiness and depleted logistics capabilities but also for the potential for the loss of coherency of the nKPA and what that means for regime stability.

 

4. North Korea mistakenly credited with $300,000 in foreign aid to post-coup Myanmar

upi.com · by Thomas Maresca · June 20, 2021

The lesson: attention to detail.

 

5. N. Korean leader watches musical performance after key party meeting

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 20, 2021

Maybe nK-pop but no real K-Pop.

Excerpt: “The article also emphasized the need to repay "people's trust and expectations" by making notable achievements on a path to the improvement of their livelihoods.

This reminds me of reading the "top ten lies" the regime tells the people as outlined in Kongdan Oh's and Ralph Hassig's new book that I just reviewed HERE

1. The Kim family is an irreplaceable  family of heroes.

2. Socialism is the bedrock of the economy; world capitalism is doomed.

3. All the policies of the Workers' Party of Korea are absolutely correct.

4. Juche - that is doing things our own way - is the correct guiding principle for all endeavors.

5. North Koreans are the only people who are truly free because they are guided by juche.

6.   South Korea, on the other hand, have always been slaves of the American imperialists.

7. The UNited States and South Korea started the Korean War, which was one by the North Koreans under the brilliant leadership of Kim Il-sung.

8. The North Korean military is the strongest in the world - and needs to be because the United States is always trying to start another war.

9. North Korea's nuclear weapons are a guarantee of future peace.

10.  North Korea's prestige in the international community has always been high.

 

6. N. Korea replaces chief of Kim Il-sung University: state media

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 20, 2021

5 months?  Due to complaints from Germany over phony partner relationships?  I wonder where he will end up? He will at least face "re-education."  Perhaps some hard labor to get his mind right.

 

7. Push to honor Otto Warmbier by renaming street outside North Korean UN mission gets bipartisan support

foxnews.com · by Eric Shawn

The effort continues.  Let's get this done.  Every effort to call out human rights abuses helps.

As I tweeted to Rep Young Kim: 

“Young Kim

@RepYoungKim

· 22h

Otto Warmbier experienced what no American – or human being – should ever have to go through. Four years after his tragic death at the hands of the North Korean regime, we honor his life & are reminded that the US cannot back down in the fight for global human rights.

 

David Maxwell

@DavidMaxwell161

 

·

21h

The root of all evil on the Korean Peninsula is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that seeks to dominate all Korea under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. We must solve the “Korea question.” (Para 60, armistice)

Excerpts: “The Washington, D.C.–based activist group The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea hopes Manhattan's "Otto Warmbier Way" will be the first of many more such streets that will be renamed in front of the 49 North Korea's embassies scattered around the globe.

"The Kim regime imprisoned and killed Otto Warmbier," said HRNK executive director Greg Scarlatoiu.

"Millions of unknown North Koreans are similarly subjected to the brutality of this regime. More than a hundred thousand men, women and children are being tortured, starved, and abused in North Korea’s political prison camps. Renaming the stretch of road in front of the North Korean permanent mission to the United Nations in New York City ‘Otto Warmbier Way’ could be the opening salvo in a global effort to call the Kim regime to account for its crimes."

Push to honor Otto Warmbier by renaming street outside North Korean UN mission gets bipartisan support

 

8. Kim Carefully Nudges the Dialogue Door Open Wider

38 North · June 18, 2021

Interesting and hopeful analysis.

Or is it business as usual and continued political warfare?

But we should give him a chance.  We welcome him to come to the table.  All he has to do is decide to act as a responsible member of the international community.  Is that too much to ask? Why should we allow anything less?  Why should we give Kim a pass for his continued malign behavior?

 

9. Incoming Vatican Prefect You Heung-sik expected to serve as bridge builder for pope's NK visit

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 20, 2021

I fear the Vatican will get played here.

 

10. Counterattacks have begun

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Min-seok · June 20, 2021

Quite a critical essay that looks at the great power competition with China, Russia, the US, East Asia, etc.

It ends with this critique of South Korea: “

Because there is a limit to America dealing with a resurgent Russia and China on its own, U.S. President Joe Biden urged NATO members to join in the campaign and issued a joint statement in Belgium last week. Despite heightened tensions around the globe, South Korea doesn’t seem concerned in the least. Sexual harassment continues to take place in the military, soldiers’ discipline is cracking, and the government is still suspicious of a North Korean torpedo attack on the Cheonan warship, which sank in 2010 in the West Sea. South Korea is surrounded by North Korea, China and Russia, all nuclear powers. Yet the liberal administration does not make any demand for nuclear dismantlement from North Korea. The uniquely sad history must not be repeated whatsoever.

 

--------------

 

"The result of the war has been the vindication of the country’s cause, as against that of section; of manhood over the system of master and slave; of the liberty which means law, right, humanity, over that which is lawless, barbarous, and insolent"

- Joshua Chamberlain, 1867

 

"I am sure if you get away from telling the truth, then there is no place where you stop."

-Under Secretary of State Dean Acheson, May 1947.

 

"In matters of style, swim with the current; in matter of principle, stand like a rock." 

- Thomas Jefferson

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. Military to Withdraw Hundreds of Troops, Aircraft, Antimissile Batteries From Middle East

2. “Cyber disruption,” ransomware, and critical infrastructure: A new US understanding of “attack”?

3. Chinese Nuke Modernization Prompts Shift In DoD Strategy

4. The Navy Needs Deep Readers, Not Reading Lists

5. Army Signals The Abrams Tank Is Here To Stay

6. Foreign Disinformation Feeds US Domestic Terrorism, Official Warns

7. Air Force Special Operations Job Transformation Takes Big Step Forward

8. The secret to NATO’s survival: Get political

9. U.S. Says 'Contingency' Aid Ready If Russia Attacks Ukraine

10.  White House freezes Ukraine military package that includes lethal weapons

11. Large Scale Combat Operations Book Set

12. Army investigating death of colonel found unresponsive at Fort Leavenworth

13.  The Fulbright Paradox

14. China Can't Invade Taiwan Just Yet Says U.S. General

15. A niche Chinese Gen Z meme is ringing alarm bells for Beijing

16. Putin's Performance At Geneva Summit Seen As A Master Class In 'Whataboutism'

17. How a Conservative Activist Invented the Conflict Over Critical Race Theory

18. 11 Things to Know: Afghanistan on the Eve of Withdrawal

 

1. U.S. Military to Withdraw Hundreds of Troops, Aircraft, Antimissile Batteries From Middle East

WSJ · by Gordon Lubold, Nancy A. Youssef and Michael R. Gordon

Excerpts: “The move marks the second time this year the U.S. has removed Patriot antimissile batteries from the Middle East. This spring, the U.S. military removed at least three Patriot missiles from the Saudi Arabia and had considered taking out a Thaad.

Officials said the withdrawal could be seen by Russia and China, who are expanding their military and economic influence in the Middle East, as an opportunity to increase their aims.

But defense officials point to a mosaic of U.S. involvement in the region, including foreign military sales, security cooperation, joint military exercises and maintaining U.S. ground troops.

“Yes, Russia and China are going to attempt to utilize adjustments in posture to message that the United States cannot be relied upon,” a defense official said. “The reality is that none of them are going to replace the United States and what we provide.”

 

2. “Cyber disruption,” ransomware, and critical infrastructure: A new US understanding of “attack”?

sites.duke.edu · by Charlie Dunlap, J.D. · June 19, 2021

Excerpts: “To reiterate, it appears that the U.S. is now taking the position that a cyber-operation against US-defined “critical infrastructure” that causes a significant “disruption” amounts to an “attack.” Apparently, a ransomware incident – though lacking direct loss of life or physical destruction – is sufficient to constitute such an attack, at least when targeted against critical infrastructure.

In most ransomware incidents the data is not damaged or destroyed, but just encrypted and denied to its owner until a ransom is paid. It is somewhat akin to a distributed denial of service (DDOS) incidents where access is denied. Most nations do not consider DDOS incidents to be “armed attacks” that would trigger an Article 51 right to self-defense.

Importantly, the U.S. has long had a lower threshold than most nations for the kinds of incidents that would permit acts in self-defense under international law. Specifically, Article 2(4) UN Charter prohibits the threat or use of “force,” but, as noted above, Article 51 of the Charter permits individual and collective self-defense when a state has been a victim of an “armed attack.”

Here’s the tricky part: most nations consider the kind of “force” referenced in Article 2(4) as not necessarily being the same as that constituting an “armed attack” as used in Article 51. In other words, an activity amounting to “force” which violates Article 2(4) might not be of sufficient violence, intensity, and scope to constitute an “armed attack” to legitimately trigger self-defense authority within the meaning of Article 51.

 

3. Chinese Nuke Modernization Prompts Shift In DoD Strategy

breakingdefense.com · by Colin Clark · June 18, 2021

Excerpt: “Dean Cheng, one of the West’s top experts on the Chinese military, goes further, saying that: “China is now pushing modernization of its nuclear forces, and this calls into question some basic assumptions, including how much fissile material they have. The broad expanse of Chinese nuclear modernization programs, including an air-breathing portion, is very different from what had been seen before.”

 

4. The Navy Needs Deep Readers, Not Reading Lists

cimsec.org · by Guest Author · June 18, 2021

Not just the Navy but all services and all national security practitioners.

Some excellent advice in this essay.

Excerpt: “In August of 1988, three months after I was commissioned, then-Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Carlisle A. H. Trost spoke at the Superintendent of the Naval Academy’s change-of-command and said this on the subject of technical education:

“To compete in the world, to serve as a naval officer, today you must have a technical background. If you become an inveterate reader, if an idle moment never finds you without a book in your hand, the broad knowledge will come to you. But without a background in deep technical knowledge, and without the resulting confidence that moves you to unravel technical complexities wherever you find them, you will always be a wallflower in the ballroom of progress, and your success in our profession will suffer accordingly.”1

I agree with much of this. But what always troubled me was Admiral Trost’s nod to inveterate readers that always have a book in their hands. It begs the most important question: which books? Do the type and genre matter? Just history and books on current events? Or was he relying on technically educated officers to cultivate a habit of reading the best literature and philosophy as well? I cannot tell, but in perusing the many CNO reading lists over the years I can speculate that he was not.

And the controversial conclusion (to some, perhaps, but with which I agree - anyone who wants to ban books, ideas, thought, and critical thinking is not upholding our Constitution or American values): "Admiral Gilday was right to defend the books on his list against ridiculous partisan political attacks. Military leaders should be open to reading Ibram X. Kendi’s How to Be an Anti-Racist and other books that challenge conventional thinking. Military leaders are responsible for the lives of Americans of all backgrounds and viewpoints. They should read widely and never be afraid to read an author with whom they might disagree. That is how one nurtures a genuine curiosity—and learns. But don’t read Kendi’s book, or any book, just because it is on a reading list, as if completing a chore. Read good books to be a deep reader. And become a deep reader to become a better leader.

 

5. Army Signals The Abrams Tank Is Here To Stay

Forbes · by Loren Thompson · June 18, 2021

Greatest tank ever developed and will probably remain so for decades to come. If it ain't broke, don't fix it (though modernization updates are welcomed).

 

6. Foreign Disinformation Feeds US Domestic Terrorism, Official Warns

voanews.com ·  Jeff Seldin · June 17, 2021

Excerpts: “Current and former officials, as well as analysts, have also warned Russia is actively cultivating a new generation of influence peddlers focused on building followers among the far right and far left.

As part of the new domestic terrorism strategy, officials have pledged to find ways to “counter the polarization often fueled by disinformation, misinformation and dangerous conspiracy theories online, supporting an information environment that fosters healthy democratic discourse,” according to a White House handout.

Officials also note that Washington has joined the Christchurch Call to Action to Eliminate Terrorist and Violent Extremist Content Online — an initiative named after the New Zealand city where a far-right gunman killed 51 people at two mosques in 2019.

But countering the threat from disinformation in particular will be difficult, according to Homeland Security officials, who point to the siege of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, for which almost 500 people have been arrested.

 

7. Air Force Special Operations Job Transformation Takes Big Step Forward

military.com · by Stephen Losey · June 17, 2021

Air Forces Special reconnaissance. I recall going to Hurlburt Field in the late 1980's and seeing the AFSOC combat weatherman (the special operations weather team). The amount of high speed kit they had back then put the SF A team kit to shame. :-) We were jealous.

Excerpts: “And in future conflicts, these special reconnaissance airmen could deploy alongside teams of Green Berets or other special operators, and fly small quadcopter drones or use other recon tactics to collect vital intelligence on air or other threats needed in the field.

"The core tenet of reconnaissance is gathering information," Reed said. "So let's make sure we're postured to gather the information that we want to be able to gather -- keeping in mind that future conflicts are going to look probably pretty different than the conflicts for the past 20 years in the Middle East."

The old special operations weather team, or SOWT, career field, which specialized in analyzing weather in the field, was "a pretty niche career field," Reed said.

 

8. The secret to NATO’s survival: Get political

atlanticcouncil.org · June 17, 2021

Conclusion:  “Developing the Alliance as a political actor via these six action points will not be easy, but if there is an administration that could do it, it is Joe Biden’s. Biden is the first US president since George H.W. Bush with an inherent tendency toward Atlanticism. Since 2000, the transatlantic space has endured reproach, apathy, and most recently hostility and neglect from the White House, all of which have been highly detrimental to transatlantic relations and greatly contributed to the decline of NATO as a political actor. But Biden is a natural trans-Atlanticist and is the last president of a generation that looked instinctively to Europe. One of his chief legacies could be setting a foundation for younger Americans to see Europeans, in a world full of competition for attention, as the allies they turn to first.

1. A coherent political-military strategy toward China

2. A renewed focus on arms control, both nuclear and conventional

3. A more operational EU-NATO relationship

4. A more capable Europe

5. Stabilization without intervention

6. Tackling tech challenges

​I guess irregular, unconventional, political​, and hybrid warfare are not important to NATO. It does not seem to me that although the authors are talking about political-military actions they are not addressing the real threats posed by Russia and China which are best described as political warfare.

 

9. U.S. Says 'Contingency' Aid Ready If Russia Attacks Ukraine

rferl.org 

I do have to say that the plan of providing contingency aid after an attack is not a recipe for success.

 

10. White House freezes Ukraine military package that includes lethal weapons

Politico

The White House has pushed back on this with this statement: “The idea that we have held back security assistance to Ukraine is nonsense. Just last week—in the run-up to the U.S.-Russia Summit—we provided a $150 million package of security assistance, including lethal assistance. We have now provided the entire amount appropriated by Congress through the Ukraine security assistance initiative. Two days before the Summit, President Biden stood on the stage before the entire world at NATO and said that we would keep putting Ukraine “in the position to be able to continue to resist Russian physical aggression.” We have also prepared contingency funds in the event of a further Russian incursion into Ukraine. As President Biden told President Putin directly, we will stand unwavering in support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

I am reminded of a SOF Truth: You cannot create competent special operations forces after a crisis occurs. A variation might be you cannot provide adequate defense after an attack occurs.

And of course Sun Tzu said, never assume the enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible. It seems to me we would want to try to make Ukraine invincible before a Russian attack.

However, a friend who is an expert in this area provides this explanation/clarification: “I will try to clear up what is being said and not being said. The Politico piece, which follows up on a WaPo piece from earlier in the week, alleges that an assistance package developed when the Russians were engaged in a coercive military show of force has been held up, for the time being . This assistance package is separate from and not related to the two military assistance packages provided through appropriated Title 10 funding known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The second USAI tranche at $150M was indeed announced earlier this week.

The WH statement mainly focuses on USAI and only briefly mentions the existence of this separate assistance package connected to the Russian show of force operation. By the way, a sizable number of those troops are still in Crimea and along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia according to open source reporting.”

 

11. Large Scale Combat Operations Book Set

armyupress.army.mil

An important and useful reference set.

Is there an irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, political warfare, and hybrid warfare book set?

 

12. Army investigating death of colonel found unresponsive at Fort Leavenworth

Stars and Stripes · by Scott Green

Another tragic loss. We are all vulnerable regardless of rank.

 

13. The Fulbright Paradox

Foreign Affairs · by Charles King · June 18, 2021

I will be following this up with an essay from Matt Armstrong who challenges and clarifies some of the history and analysis in this essay.

Excerpts: ”Fulbright’s life, like most people’s, was mottled. He acquiesced to awfulness yet led in areas that required political and moral courage. His failings were his country’s, and especially his region’s. His achievements were his alone. He was brave and weak, persuasive and exasperating, prescient and shortsighted, a futurist in thrall to the past. If the United States had followed the domestic path he supported in the 1950s and 1960s, it would have committed a massive act of injustice and self-betrayal. If it had followed the foreign policies he advocated in the 1960s and 1970s, the era would likely have claimed fewer lives.

In 1982, Fulbright’s alma mater (and my own), the University of Arkansas, held a ceremony renaming its College of Arts and Sciences after him, with an oration by the economist John Kenneth Galbraith. The former senator himself beamed from the dais. Nearly four decades later, in August 2020, the university established a special committee to make recommendations about the future of the college’s name and a prominent statue of Fulbright on campus. By that time, Woodrow Wilson’s name had been dropped from Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs. Monuments to old secessionists and segregationists had fallen across the country. Congress would soon pass legislation stripping the surnames of Confederate generals from U.S. military bases. This past April, the committee recommended that the Fulbright name and statue be removed.

The reexamination of Fulbright is part of the broader transformation in how Americans talk about themselves in the past tense. Monuments, like nations, are situated in history. As societies change, so do the things they erect to instruct children in the preferred way of recounting it. The meaning of tributes to the dead is no more than what the living do with them. As any visitor to Washington, D.C., can confirm, the Victims of Communism Memorial—unveiled by President George W. Bush in 2007 and now a gathering place for clients from a nearby homeless shelter—has ironically become a monument to the victims of capitalism. The usefulness of statues resides in whether they enable human achievement or inhibit it in the here and now. If the latter is the case, it is best to let them go. Ghosts do not care either way.

...

This legacy is a remarkable monument not to a man but to an idea, one lived out imperfectly in a single life and betrayed repeatedly by the country that professed it. Fulbright’s own biography is evidence that the best of what the United States produced in the last century was inseparable from the worst—a complicated, grownup fact that ought to inform how Americans approach everything from education in international affairs to foreign-policy making. And to generations of people in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, Fulbright’s most enduring contribution is something that the United States now has an opportunity to bring back home: the astonishing, liberating idea that governments have a duty to help people lose their fear of difference.

 

14.  China Can't Invade Taiwan Just Yet Says U.S. General

19fortyfive.com · by Peter Suciu · June 18, 2021

Sun Tzu: never assume your enemy will not attack. (maybe he added "just yet.:)

 

15. A niche Chinese Gen Z meme is ringing alarm bells for Beijing

Quartz · by Jane Li

"Lying down" or "lying flat." I want to assess this in terms of Gene Sharp's concepts of non-violent resistance.

Excerpts: “The concept advocates an almost monastic outlook, including not getting married, not having children, not having a job, not owning property, and consuming as little as possible. For many, this is almost the only way in an authoritarian country to fight against the growing pressures from long work hours, skyrocketing housing prices, and the ever higher cost of raising children. Lifestyle philosophies based on rejecting ambition, and being a cog in China’s capitalist machine have been spreading in recent years, and “lying flat” is the latest culmination of such trends, explained Wu Qiang, an independent political analyst in Beijing.

“Chinese youngsters, or in general the working population, have experienced huge societal and political changes in the past nine years, [leading them to realize] that there is neither the possibility for initiating a revolution nor the freedom of expression. Under such a condition, lying down has become the only option,” Wu told Quartz.

In a sign of the Party’s concern over the idea’s popularity, Chinese social media platform Douban has censored a discussion group of nearly 10,000 members about lying flat, while some state-owned media have urged young people to ditch the idea. “The new generation is not a generation that chooses to lie flat, but one that chooses to work hard!” the Xinhua news agency said in an article in May, citing examples of young medical professionals fighting hard against the pandemic.

...

“You can’t stand up, but you don’t want to kneel down. Then you can only lie flat,” one Weibo user recently put it.

 

16. Putin's Performance At Geneva Summit Seen As A Master Class In 'Whataboutism'

rferl.org · by Matthew Luxmoore · June 17, 2021

Master class is right. It is hard to believe people can take him seriously. Although I could only listen to the translation it sounded like he was making his arguments so smoothly and matter of factl. He seemed so natural in his "whataboutism."

 

17. How a Conservative Activist Invented the Conflict Over Critical Race Theory

The New Yorker · by Benjamin Wallace-Wells · June 18, 2021

A fascinating read. I do not intend this as a political statement on this issue. However, I will say again that I think banning ideas, theories, thoughts, criticism, etc. goes against our Constitution and American values, no matter how distasteful we might find them. Anyone who argues for banning must be unable to present sufficiently sound competing ideas which is how we should address ideas we disagree with or do not like.

 

18. 11 Things to Know: Afghanistan on the Eve of Withdrawal

usip.org · by  Andrew Wilder and Scott Worden · June 18, 2021

 

---------------

 

“Nobody’s free until everybody’s free.” 

– Fannie Lou Hamer

 

"Liberty is slow fruit. It is never cheap; it is made difficult because freedom is the accomplishment and perfectness of man."

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

OTD 1952, U.S. Special Forces was created: "Only one organization was the predecessor to Special Forces and that was OSS."

-Col. Aaron Bank

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. U.S. brigade combat team arrives in S. Korea for rotational deployment

2. New U.S. nuke envoy arrives in Seoul

3. Kim Jong Un sends first official message to Biden

4. Kim Jong Un’s message for change of situations

5. N.K. leader vows to overcome difficulties as he concludes key party meeting: state media

6. North Korea attempted to hack South Korea's nuclear think tank, lawmaker says

7. Bad News: North Korea Is Suffering from Rapidly Rising Food Prices

8. Korean War hero advanced on path to sainthood

9. N.Korea's Kim tightens ruling party discipline, appoints new politburo members

10. Kim Jong-un readies North Korea for negotiations with US as food shortages bite

11. Step aside Gangnam, time for the older areas to shine

12. Here's why I want to open a North Korean restaurant in Seoul

13. South Korean man arrested after attempting to defect to North Korea

14. Jeju emerging as Asia’s coolest island getaway

15. Will Pyongyang return to negotiating table?

 

1.  U.S. brigade combat team arrives in S. Korea for rotational deployment

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 19, 2021

Let's wait and see the north Korean response.

 

2. New U.S. nuke envoy arrives in Seoul

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 19, 2021

This should be a very important and productive trip. This is likely to set the course for the combined approach of the new US policy toward north Korea. I just hope the US and Korean side can find agreement on the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. It is those differences that are going to hinder policy execution.

But a common approach for the ROK and US should be to provide Kim Jong-un the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community. This means not requiring concessions (or appeasement) in order to commit to negotiations.  If he takes advantage of the opportunity we can negotiate. If he does not we need to ensure we continue "stern deterrence" as President Biden has described it.

 

3. Kim Jong Un sends first official message to Biden

donga.com · June 19, 2021

Ah... "official message" to President Biden????  Something must be lost in translation, at least for the headline editor. While the statement issued by the Propaganda and Agitation Department through KCNA can be considered an official statement it certainly was not a traditional diplomatic communique from one head of state to another. Official response, perhaps. Official message to the US? I think not. 

I do wonder how confidential the timing of this message is with Ambassador Kim's trip to Korea this week. It really seems to me that this "message" will reinforce the factions within the Moon administration who think we should provide concessions (or appeasement) in the form of cancelling our exercises. It will make Ambassador Kim's job more difficult in trying to synchronize execution of a coherent alliance approach to north Korea as there are those within the Moon administration who believe in the fantasy that Kim will negotiate if we just cancel the exercises. And they are willing to risk the security of the ROK by doing so.

 

4. Kim Jong Un’s message for change of situations

donga.com · June 19, 2021

The Donga Ilbo editorial writers are saying in effect that the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy continues and the ROK/US alliance needs to conduct a superior form of political warfare.

Excerpts: “Being pushed into a corner, Kim may pretend to be receptive to Washington’s appeasing gestures and make external appearances for the time being. However, chances are it may later focus on resolving imminent issues such as food shortages and COVID-19 vaccine supplies while gaining time by playing hard to get at the negotiating table for denuclearization. Behind the scenes, it may play a tug-of-war by threatening to carry out large-scale provocations while utilizing volatility in international politics in its interest.

Nevertheless, Pyongyang is not allowed anymore to use the tactic of “dialogue for dialogue” merely to overcome internal crises and extend the regime’s lifespan. The Biden administration already took a close look at the U.S.-North Korea dialogue that ended up three years ago in showy confrontation, dramatic transitions and disillusionment. Kim’s clichéd tactic of hopping from provocation to negotiation and vice versa will not work out again.

 

5. N.K. leader vows to overcome difficulties as he concludes key party meeting: state media

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 19, 2021

How many times have we heard this over the decades???

Excerpt: “As he wrapped up the meeting on Friday, Kim "solemnly swore on behalf of the WPK Central Committee that the Party will surely break through head-on the difficulties lying in the way of the revolution" and remain loyal to the revolutionary idea to the end regardless of the "severer difficulties it may be confronted with in the future," the Korean Central News Agency said.

 

6. North Korea attempted to hack South Korea's nuclear think tank, lawmaker says

ABCNews.com · by ABC News

We must not ignore Kim's "all purpose sword." He is wielding it on a daily basis.

 

7. Bad News: North Korea Is Suffering from Rapidly Rising Food Prices

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · June 18, 2021

Sensational prices as we have seen in various reports but I doubt the rank and file population is phased by this as they must cope through other means.

 

8.  Korean War hero advanced on path to sainthood

aleteia.org · June 18, 2021

I am not a Catholic and I do not know how this works but I hope he is granted Sainthood. He is an inspiration to all of us regardless of religion. Even if you do not believe in miracles this story is still miraculous.

 

9. N.Korea's Kim tightens ruling party discipline, appoints new politburo members

nationalpost.com · by Hyonhee Shin · June 18, 2021

Standard operating procedure for the Kim family regime and the Workers Party of Korea.

 

10.  Kim Jong-un readies North Korea for negotiations with US as food shortages bite

Stuff.co.nz · by Julian Ryall · June 19, 2021

Video at the link.

One thing I have learned from watching these videos over the years is that in north Korea you had better be a damn good note taker -or be able to look like you are one!

I caution all those who think the scorpion has changed his nature. Perhaps he has and I hope it is true but I am not optimistic that he has jettisoned his political warfare strategy. If he has changed then he will need to show us that he can act as a responsible member of the international community.

While he wants sanctions relief we should keep in mind the suffering is because he has chosen to prioritize nuclear and missile development, the military, and the elite. He raises sufficient funds from his global illicit activities to feed the Korean people suffering in the north. He has made the deliberate policy decision to, in effect, starve them.

 

11. Step aside Gangnam, time for the older areas to shine

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Lee So-Ah, Yoo Ji-Yeon, and Bae Jung-won

For those traveling to Korea and looking for something new.

 

12. Here's why I want to open a North Korean restaurant in Seoul

The Korea Times · by Sharon Jang · June 19, 2021

I have to admit that I have never acquired the taste for north Korean cold noodles.

Here's why I want to open a North Korean restaurant in Seoul

 

13. South Korean man arrested after attempting to defect to North Korea

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim· June 18, 2021

He probably needs a psychological evaluation.

 

14. Jeju emerging as Asia’s coolest island getaway

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 19, 2021

My wife and I spent our honeymoon here in 1987. We look forward to being able to return some day.

On a more important note the article discusses the effects of Chinese economic warfare due to the THAAD deployment.

 

15.  Will Pyongyang return to negotiating table?

The Korea Times · June 18, 2021

It could happen. Never say never. I am not holding my breath and it might occur later rather than sooner unless Kim thinks he has achieved conditions that will provide him an advantage. If he assesses his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy are working he may decide to come to the table. Concessions and appeasement will cause him to judge his strategy a success and then he will double down.

 

---------------

 

“Nobody’s free until everybody’s free.” 

– Fannie Lou Hamer

 

"Liberty is slow fruit. It is never cheap; it is made difficult because freedom is the accomplishment and perfectness of man."

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

OTD 1952, U.S. Special Forces was created: "Only one organization was the predecessor to Special Forces and that was OSS." 

-Col. Aaron Bank

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. High-level Chinese Defection Rumored

2. Has a top Chinese official defected to the US?

3. Can Biden Reverse Trump’s Damage to the State Department?

4. Elite Afghan Forces Suffer Horrific Casualties as Taliban Advance

5. Marine Corps and Special Operations Forces Teaming for Great Power Competition

6. Pentagon Works to Sharpen Definition of ‘Extremism’

7. G-7 leaders back Taiwan for first time

8. Juneteenth and General Order Number Three

9. American Decline: Losing the Campaign for Influence

10. FDD | New ICC Prosecutor Provides Opportunity for Closing Investigations of U.S. and Israel

11. How Xi’s China came to resemble Tsarist Russia

12. Putin Suddenly Looks Very Small

13. SOCOM’s controversial head of diversity and inclusion is back in his job

14. CYBERCOM Seeks 'Hunt Forward' Funding Boost

15. FDD | FAQ: Issues Ahead on Iran’s Nuclear Program

16. FDD | Ali Larijani, Iran’s Rejected Hardliner

17. Biden Is Wrong: Europeans Should Focus on Europe, Not Asia

18. 'Hopelessly divided' Supreme Court defies narrative with another unanimous opinion

19. Iran's Leading Presidential Candidate Has Committed Crimes Against Humanity

20. Mapped: The countries where China's influence has surpassed the U.S.

 

1. High-level Chinese Defection Rumored

spytalk.co · by Matthew Brazil and Jeff Stein

RUMINT.

 

2. Has a top Chinese official defected to the US?

Daily Mail · by Harriet Alexander and Ross Ibbetson · June 18, 2021

More on this alleged defection.

 

3. Can Biden Reverse Trump’s Damage to the State Department?

The New Yorker · by Ronan Farrow · June 17, 2021

A troubling assessment of our State Department. If we want to be successful in great power competition and across the national security spectrum we need a strong State department that is dominant in foreign affairs and developing US foreign policy and national security strategy.

 

4. Elite Afghan Forces Suffer Horrific Casualties as Taliban Advance

The New York Times · by Najim Rahim · June 17, 2021

The best trained force in Afghanistan with fearless fighters who were created in the image of US SOF.

 

5. Marine Corps and Special Operations Forces Teaming for Great Power Competition

Small Wars Journal · by Michael F. Masters Jr.

Conclusion: “To optimize the USMC’s FD2030 concept for GPC, a strategy for USMC-SOF teaming is required. Specifically, USMC-SOF Integration, Interdependence, Interoperability, and Deconfliction, must be addressed to ensure future operational success; particularly in the INDOPACOM AOR. The future operating environment and the USMC's EABO concept will likely demand a closer USMC-SOF I3D during execution. The value in realizing similar mission sets and potential capability gaps and requirements before hostilities enables mutually beneficial training opportunities, identification of reliable partners, and potential for future cost savings in the procurement of the service's next generation of equipment that is required to communicate in a highly joint and multi-domain operating environment.

 

6. Pentagon Works to Sharpen Definition of ‘Extremism’

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

Again, we have to get this right. We have to root out extremism but we have to be careful not to play into the extremist narrative.

Good order and discipline is destroyed by extremism. But poor or incorrectly applied methods to root out extremism will also destroy good order and discipline.

 

7. G-7 leaders back Taiwan for first time

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

Excerpts: “It was the first time the Group of Seven voiced support for Taiwan, the island-state 100 miles off the southern Chinese coast that Beijing regards as a breakaway province.

A day later, at a NATO summit in Belgium, the alliance’s communique also issued a rebuke, stating China poses “systemic challenges” to international order.

“We are concerned by those coercive policies which stand in contrast to the fundamental values enshrined in the Washington Treaty,” said the NATO communique, referring to the alliance’s founding document.

“China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal with more warheads and a larger number of sophisticated delivery systems to establish a nuclear triad,” the communique said. “It is opaque in implementing its military modernization and its publicly declared military-civil fusion strategy.”

 

8. Juneteenth and General Order Number Three

warontherocks.com · by WOTR Staff · June 18, 2021 

Important history to re-read on this historic day.

There is no better kind of holiday than one that celebrates freedom.

I wonder if Maj Gen Granger's Civil Affairs officers had a role in drafting his order? :-) 

 

9. American Decline: Losing the Campaign for Influence

mwi.usma.edu · by Andrew Milburn · June 18, 2021

42 minutes well spent listening to this podcast at this link.

Bottom line: The two discuss how controlling the information environment has supplanted armed conflict as the means by which nations and other actors achieve their objectives. They explain why the ability to project influence is an all-important component of strategic power and how the United States has fallen far behind its adversaries in this competition.

 

10. FDD | New ICC Prosecutor Provides Opportunity for Closing Investigations of U.S. and Israel

fdd.org · by Orde Kittrie · June 17, 2021

Conclusion: Karim Khan’s inauguration as the new ICC prosecutor enables a reset of the U.S.-ICC relationship. The Biden administration should work with U.S. allies to encourage Khan to refocus the ICC on its core mission, including by closing his predecessor’s cases against the United States and Israel and by remedying the ICC’s serious management problems.

 

11. How Xi’s China came to resemble Tsarist Russia

Financial Times · by Jamil Anderlini · June 16, 2021

I will be curious to read the comments of China hands on this.

Excerpts: “Xi Jinping is the first Chinese leader since the death of Mao in 1976 who was not handpicked by Deng and he has consciously set out to define a fourth era in party rule. This involves a dramatic expansion of China’s military, a far more assertive stance globally and total suppression of dissent. Economically, he has laid out a state-dominated vision of self-reliance that one former World Bank official describes as a “wartime” economic plan.

The most accurate political comparison is probably with Russia in the 19th century, under Tsar Nicholas I or Alexander III. “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era” was inserted into the constitution in 2017 and has been endlessly lionised ever since. Although party officials struggle to clearly define this new ideology, it describes a deeply conservative policy that closely resembles the “orthodoxy, autocracy and nationality” — also known as “faith, tsar and fatherland” — dogma of Nicholas I.

Instead of the Russian Orthodox Church, Xi emphasises a pseudo-religious mix of Sinicized Marxism, Confucianism and Maoism. The other two pillars of CCP rule today — autocracy and ethno-nationalism — are virtually identical to those of Nicholas I, although the mass incarceration and re-education of Muslim Uyghurs and other minorities is more ambitious than anything the tsars ever attempted in peacetime.

 

12. Putin Suddenly Looks Very Small

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron

I know this is not the author's intent but I thought he looked and acted like a thug as well as a disinformation generating machine.

 

13. SOCOM’s controversial head of diversity and inclusion is back in his job

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 17, 2021

 

14. CYBERCOM Seeks 'Hunt Forward' Funding Boost

breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams · June 16, 2021

I like "hunt forward" better than "defend forward."

 

15. FDD | FAQ: Issues Ahead on Iran’s Nuclear Program

fdd.org · by Mark Dubowitz · June 17, 2021

 

16. FDD | Ali Larijani, Iran’s Rejected Hardliner

fdd.org · by Tzvi Kahn · June 17, 2021

Excerpts: “Yet Larijani’s history of loyalty to the revolution proved insufficient for the Guardian Council to approve his bid for the presidency in 2021. While the reason for the council’s decision remains unclear, it may be that Larijani’s record of enforcing submission to the regime lags behind that of another candidate, Ebrahim Raisi, the first choice and confidant of Khamenei. As a prosecutor, as attorney general, and later as head of Iran’s judiciary, Raisi oversaw the imprisonment, torture, and execution of countless prisoners of conscience, including the 1988 massacre of thousands of political dissidents.

Khamenei likely wishes to see an overwhelming victory for Raisi, who now faces three other opponents, none with Raisi’s prominence. At the same time, as the regime faces increasing challenges to its legitimacy by a disaffected public angered by a cratering economy and Tehran’s repression, turnout will likely be low, thereby weakening the victor’s ability to claim a mandate. One recent poll projected a turnout of only 41 percent.

Still, Larijani opted to serve a regime whose institutions all must bend to the will of the supreme leader. He should not be surprised when Khamenei spurns the people who served him most sedulously.

 

17.  Biden Is Wrong: Europeans Should Focus on Europe, Not Asia

spectator.org · by Doug Bandow · June 18, 2021

Excerpts: “In Brussels, NATO’s members declared, “We face multifaceted threats, systemic competition from assertive and authoritarian powers, as well as growing security challenges to our countries and our citizens from all strategic directions. Russia’s aggressive actions constitute a threat to Euro-Atlantic security; terrorism in all its forms and manifestations remains a persistent threat to us all. State and non-state actors challenge the rules-based international order and seek to undermine democracy across the globe. Instability beyond our borders is also contributing to irregular migration and human trafficking.” The Europeans have plenty to do without faking readiness to confront China.

Ultimately, cooperation among Western and other democratic states will be important in dealing with the increasing challenge posed by Beijing. But the president and others in Washington shouldn’t fool themselves into expecting military assistance from Europe. They certainly shouldn’t allow this alluring chimera to divert them from the more pressing issue of shifting the primary burden of managing Russia from America to Europe.

 

18. 'Hopelessly divided' Supreme Court defies narrative with another unanimous opinion

USA Today · by Jonathan Turley

Perhaps the Supreme Court is doing what it is supposed to and judging the law and not playing politics. I noted in the majority opinion and Justice Alito's dissent in the ACA case it seemed to me that they were judging the law and not the politics and the same seems to be for the religious freedom case. This is what the Supreme Court is supposed to do, put the Constitution and the law above politics.

 

19. Iran's Leading Presidential Candidate Has Committed Crimes Against Humanity

realclearworld.com · by Tzvi Kahn

Excerpts: “In 2019, the Trump administration sanctioned Raisi, citing his conduct in the 1988 massacre and the 2009 protests. Now, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has indicated that the Biden administration may lift some non-nuclear sanctions on Iran in order to persuade Tehran to reenter the 2015 nuclear deal. The regime, for its part, has pressed America’s negotiators to lift all nuclear and non-nuclear sanctions, which would include a removal of Raisi from the blacklist.

The Biden administration should resist such pressure. Regardless of the fate of the nuclear accord, perpetrators of crimes against humanity should not receive pardons.

 

20. Mapped: The countries where China's influence has surpassed the U.S.

Axios · by Dave Lawler

Graphic at the link. 

 

----------------

 

“You must never, ever give out. We must keep the faith because we are one people. We are brothers and sisters. We all live in the same house: The American house.” 

- John Lewis

 

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.” 

- Martin Luther King

 

“Every year we must remind successive generations that this event triggered a series of events that one by one defines the challenges and responsibilities of successive generations. That’s why we need this holiday.” 

- Al Edwards

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Kim says N. Korea should be ready for both dialogue, confrontation with U.S.

2. Kim Jong Un equally ready to talk or fight with Biden

3.  North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Opens Door for Dialogue With Biden

4. Third-Day Sitting of 3rd Plenary Meeting of 8th Central Committee of Workers’ Party of Korea Held

5. North Korea encourages cell phone users to install new "cooking app"

6. Pres. Moon says map of Joseon Dynasty shows Dokdo as part of Korean territory

7. North Korea Hackers Target S.Korea Nuclear Think Tank - Lawmaker

8. Households Start Paying for Moon's Irrational Nuclear Phaseout

9. In North Korea a packet of coffee costs $100, and that's a problem for Kim Jong Un

10.  ＜Breaking News Inside N. Korea＞ Soaring Food Prices Cause Market Confusion. 2.4 times the price of corn: "The market is screaming in pain.”

11. Taliban Frees All South Korean Hostages

12. Seoul courts risk after ‘no shackles’ missile development deal

 

1. Kim says N. Korea should be ready for both dialogue, confrontation with U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 18, 2021

Perhaps this is Kim's response to President Biden's principled, practical diplomacy and stern deterrence. Except that President Biden's offer is the opportunity for Kim to act as a responsible member of the international community. Does he have it in him to do so? I am afraid he is a scorpion who cannot change his nature.

And an important question we have to ask and answer is when will Kim be capable of navigating his domestic problems and re-engaging internationally? Will he be able to do both? Or will he try to "externalize" his domestic problems (in an attempt to cover them up) by reverting to his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy and resume threats, increased tensions, and provocations to create the perception external threats against the regime to justify the continued sacrifices of the Korean people living in the north? 

 

2. Kim Jong Un equally ready to talk or fight with Biden

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 18, 2021

I am reminded of the communist adage (North Vietnamese and Chinese, but also can describe the Korean War Armistice negotiations): "fight, fight, talk, talk."

 

3. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un Opens Door for Dialogue With Biden

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · June 18, 2021

While we should not get overly optimistic about these reports about the regime statements.

I wonder if the timing of this is just a coincidence with Ambassador Sung Kim's upcoming trip to Seoul. The timing seems like perfectly executed political warfare that will support the South Korean desire to cancel exercises as the concession (appeasement) the Moon administration believes is necessary to restart US-nK negotiations and north-South engagement. I hope we are not duped by the regime again. Queue music of The Who - "won't get fooled again."

 

4. Third-Day Sitting of 3rd Plenary Meeting of 8th Central Committee of Workers’ Party of Korea Held

kcnawatch.org

Here is the KCNA official statement from north Korea (and the "respected general.")

Key points: “The respected General Secretary reviewed and assessed major changes taking place recently in the international political arena and the external environment of our revolution.

Especially he made detailed analysis of the policy tendency of the new U.S. administration toward our Republic and clarified appropriate strategic and tactical counteraction and direction of activities to be maintained in the relations with the U.S. in the days ahead.

The General Secretary stressed the need to get prepared for both dialogue and confrontation, especially to get more fully prepared for confrontation in order to protect the dignity of our state and its interests for independent development and to reliably guarantee the peaceful environment and the security of our state.

 

5. North Korea encourages cell phone users to install new "cooking app"

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 18, 2021

If you cannot beat them, join them. Is the regime exploiting apps to obtain foreign currency? It is a learning organization.

 

6. Pres. Moon says map of Joseon Dynasty shows Dokdo as part of Korean territory

donga.com · June 18, 2021

Something else to poke in the eye of Japan. We have maps at the Library of Congress in the US in the Korea section that show the same thing.

 

7. North Korea Hackers Target S.Korea Nuclear Think Tank - Lawmaker

US News and World Reports · by Hyonhee Shin

 

8. Households Start Paying for Moon's Irrational Nuclear Phaseout

english.chosun.com

A major strategic mistake by the Moon administration.

 

9. In North Korea a packet of coffee costs $100, and that's a problem for Kim Jong Un

CNN · by Joshua Berlinger and Paula Hancocks

I wonder how much a Latte costs at Starbucks in Pyongyang? Oh that is right there are no Starbucks in north Korea.

 

10. ＜Breaking News Inside N. Korea＞ Soaring Food Prices Cause Market Confusion. 2.4 times the price of corn: "The market is screaming in pain.”

asiapress.org

Key point: “I feel a threat to our lives. In fact, elderly people who live alone and don't have money to buy food are dying everywhere,” one of the reporting partners concluded.

We must be observing for the indicators of internal instability and the effects on the regime and its decision making and survival.

 

11. Taliban Frees All South Korean Hostages

CBS News

I do not think we often appreciate or even know how engaged Koreans are around the world.

 

12. Seoul courts risk after ‘no shackles’ missile development deal

Al Jazeera English · by Frank Smith

 

------------

 

“You must never, ever give out. We must keep the faith because we are one people. We are brothers and sisters. We all live in the same house: The American house.” 

- John Lewis

 

“Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. We are caught in an inescapable network of mutuality, tied in a single garment of destiny. Whatever affects one directly, affects all indirectly.” 

- Martin Luther King

 

“Every year we must remind successive generations that this event triggered a series of events that one by one defines the challenges and responsibilities of successive generations. That’s why we need this holiday.” 

- Al Edwards

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. CIA Names David Marlowe to Run Espionage Operations

2. Does Biden Have the Right Naval Strategy to Take on Russia and China? History Has An Answer.

3. Biden's cyber budget good, but still insufficient to meet the threats

4. In the Iran nuclear crisis, the IAEA stands alone

5. Russia, US Will Launch Arms Control Talks To Avoid ‘Accidental War’

6. A Better Way to Measure Returns on U.S. Security Cooperation Investments

7. Rank-and-file soldiers begin Special Forces-style security missions across Indo-Pacific

8. U.S. Needs ‘Combat-Credible’ Forces to Deter China, Nominee Says

9. SecDef OKs Joint Warfighting Concept; Joint Requirements Due Soon

10. Robust, credible and layered missile defense is the foundation of deterrence

11. FDD | Schemes and Subversion: How Bad Actors and Foreign Governments Undermine and Evade Sanctions Regimes

12. FDD | Tehran’s nuclear secrets have been exposed

13. NATO Targets the ‘3 C’s’: China, Cyberattacks and Climate Change

14. Growth of nuclear arsenals ‘a worrisome sign’

15. DroneGun Tactical the ultimate UAV killer

16. FDD | Biden Should Not Lift Sanctions Against Iranian Presidential Candidate Ebrahim Raisi

17. Suspend Syria and Russia from the WHO

18. Lost at Sea: How Two Iranian Warships Are Testing American Mettle

19. NSA cyber director discusses US response, approach to apparent espionage operation

20. Strengthening U.S. Engagement in International Standards Bodies

 

1. CIA Names David Marlowe to Run Espionage Operations

WSJ · by Warren P. Strobel

Excerpts: “Little more is known publicly about Mr. Marlowe’s career. The CIA normally does not publicly disclose its employees’ foreign assignments. CIA officials described him as an Arabic speaker who has spent 20 of his 30 years at the agency in field assignments overseas. His most recent job, they said, was assistant director of the CIA’s Near East Mission Center, which combines operations officers, intelligence analysts and other specialists to focus on the Middle East.

...

“One of the big challenges today [for] operational tradecraft is ubiquitous technical surveillance, the capacity of a number of our adversaries to make it much more complicated to conduct traditional tradecraft,” he said.

 

2. Does Biden Have the Right Naval Strategy to Take on Russia and China? History Has An Answer.

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · June 16, 2021

Conclusion: “Take it from William Pitt: a well-armed peace is cheaper and less hazardous than war.

The British shipbuilding maxim of which Mahan writes implies that the United States must maintain sea forces able to contend with the combined sea power of China and Russia. These two opponents have formed an armed entente and thus constitute latter-day counterparts to France and Spain in the days of Pitt and George III. It’s prudent to set a two-power standard—much as Britain did in its imperial heyday—and measure the U.S. against Sino-Russian maritime might. If U.S. sea forces aren’t up to that standard, America and its allies are standing into danger.

Let’s not suffer a British fate.

 

3. Biden's cyber budget good, but still insufficient to meet the threats

The Hill · by Mark Montgomery· June 15, 2021

Excerpts: “In past years, moderate cybersecurity budget increases left the United States treading water amid a rising tide of ransomware attacks, cyber espionage incidents, and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities. The Biden administration is headed in the right direction but is too narrowly focused on what it calls “investments tailored to respond to lessons learned from the SolarWinds incident.”

America needs proactive, forward-looking investment that both mitigates the past year’s problems and prevents next year’s.

In the world of policymaking, real priorities do not come from pronouncements; they come from budgets. Even as the White House’s budget moves in the right direction, Congress will need to make additions to firmly establish national cybersecurity as a strategic priority.

 

4. In the Iran nuclear crisis, the IAEA stands alone

The Hill · by Andrea Stricker and Behnam Ben Taleblu· June 14, 2021

Excerpts: “Director-General Grossi has declared that he views outstanding safeguards issues as a present, and not a past matter, but the IAEA board, the 35-member elected body assigned to hold states accountable to their NPT safeguards obligations, may not help.

The board, under pressure from the U.S. and Europe not to disrupt JCPOA negotiations, yet again withheld a resolution — formal admonishment against Iran’s non-cooperation — at the June IAEA board meeting. As principal leaders in shoring up the non-proliferation regime, the U.S. and E3 (France, Britain, and Germany) must lead on resolutions for them to have any chance of success.

In a greater twist of irony, should world powers re-establish the JCPOA, they will effectively block the IAEA board (and themselves) from holding Iran accountable to its non-proliferation obligations. The board’s main recourse is to refer a non-compliant state to the UN Security Council (UNSC) for sanctions. The JCPOA obstructs UNSC sanctions against Iran because under the terms of its implementing resolution, 2231, all UN sanctions against Iran are lifted. To penalize the Islamic Republic, the UNSC would first need to bring down 2231.

As a result, the current nuclear crisis is likely to repeat itself in a handful of years as JCPOA restrictions sunset, if a military conflict or regional proliferation cascade do not take place first. To prevent all three, the Biden administration should resist the siren song of JCPOA resurrection and first empower the IAEA to do its job. If no baseline for Iran’s past and present nuclear activities can be established, there is no foundation for a deal.

 

5. Russia, US Will Launch Arms Control Talks To Avoid ‘Accidental War’

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

And this: “At the summit, Biden and Putin also discussed how to protect national assets from cyberattacks. Biden said he gave the Russian president a list of 16 critical infrastructure items, including the power grid and water system, that should be “off the table” for any cyberattack.

When Biden was asked about what consequences he threatened if Putin went after any of those protected areas, he said, “I pointed out to him that we have significant cyber capabilities and he knows it….If in fact they violate these basic norms, we will respond.”

 

6. A Better Way to Measure Returns on U.S. Security Cooperation Investments

defenseone.com · by Zack Gold, Ralph Espach, Douglas Jackson, and Nicholas Bradford

One way we might achieve better effects is if we were to align all security cooperation activities and related activities. We need to have a nested strategy for security cooperation orchestrating the actions and activities and campaign plans for supporting security assistance, foreign assistance, foreign military sales. international military education and training, foreign internal defense, security sector reform, defense institution building, etc.

Excerpts: “We agree that monitoring the outputs and outcomes of security cooperation activities and reporting them clearly and concisely is necessary, but we find the return-on-investment approach to be the wrong tool for the job. A better solution is a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative data. Because security cooperation outcomes are not financial gains, we view the “returns” on security cooperation investment as outcomes in alignment with strategic objectives. To measure the effects of these activities properly, we propose a framework that focuses on strategic objectives, alignment, and outcomes.

A framework focused on these elements allows military commands to compare findings from individual security cooperation engagements or to compare subsequent iterations of an annual engagement. Our framework includes a quantitative component and a qualitative one. First, we compute a quantitative alignment score, which is a combination of partner participation and strategic objectives addressed by a security cooperation activity. The objective alignment score is as simple as tallying the number of command strategic objectives addressed by the security cooperation activity. The combination of the partner participation score and the objective alignment score produces a numeric value of alignment with strategic objectives.

Our framework’s qualitative outcomes assessment ascertains the success of the security cooperation activity in increasing capacity or changing partner behaviors to meet objectives. This process includes defining the desired outcomes of strategic objectives, collecting periodic data on indicators of those outcomes, and concisely summarizing findings. Partner militaries, U.S. embassies, and military commands already collect much of the required data—though not systematically. Using this framework, the command could assign personnel to pull this information, or task an external organization to conduct the data collection.

By combining these quantitative and qualitative components into a single tool, our assessment framework generates a display of security cooperation activities’ strategic objectives alignment, progress toward achieving objectives, and overall assessment. Though not as simple as return on investment, it displays far more—and more relevant—data for security cooperation in an easily readable table that a command can share with key stakeholders at regular intervals.

 

7.  Rank-and-file soldiers begin Special Forces-style security missions across Indo-Pacific

Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · June 17, 2021

No one can tell me there is not a conspiracy to replace US Special Forces. I am going to go all QAnon on this (note sarcasm!)

But this is a real problem and a misunderstanding of the mission and value of US Special Forces:

It’s a task that has, in the past, been the preserve of the Green Berets, said Chief Warrant Officer Jason Sosnicki, a maintainer and member of the 5th SFAB who deployed to Papua New Guinea in May for a six-week mission.

“Green Berets work with [partner nations’] special forces,” he said by phone Wednesday from Port Moresby. “We partner with normal infantry, engineers, artillery and logistics elements.”

Special Forces’ elite nature means they can deploy for only a short time, limiting the number of foreign troops that can work with, he said.

US Special Forces do not just train "people that look like them" ( as one general officer once said in a briefing in DC - meaning SF only trains other elite units).  I spent a lot of time training, advising, and assisting units other than special operations and that is true for most SF soldiers.

I am not discounting the importance of the SFABs. There is an important role for them. But we need to use the right forces for the right missions and it is not simply a conventional force - SOF divide.  

 

8. U.S. Needs ‘Combat-Credible’ Forces to Deter China, Nominee Says

Bloomberg · by Peter Martin · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “Until last week, Ratner led a China task force at the Pentagon aimed at reorienting America’s military to better compete with Beijing. Based on the task force’s recommendations, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a directive “designed to focus departmental processes and procedures and better help department leaders contribute to whole-of-government efforts to address the challenge from China.”

Ratner served as deputy national security advisor to then-Vice President Biden from 2015 to 2017. He also held positions at the State Department, the Senate and the Center for a New American Security.

 

9. SecDef OKs Joint Warfighting Concept; Joint Requirements Due Soon

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens · June 16, 2021

We are a platform centric military.

 

10. Robust, credible and layered missile defense is the foundation of deterrence

Defense News · by Punch Moulton and Francis Mahon · June 16, 2021

Excerpt: "Today, our defense rests on the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, or GMD, and its 44 interceptors. But that alone is not going to be adequate to deal with the threats of 2027. Defending our homeland is vital. Looking to the next decade, we need to stay ahead of our threats. Our concerns are four-fold: technology, numbers, layers and sensors."

 

11. FDD | Schemes and Subversion: How Bad Actors and Foreign Governments Undermine and Evade Sanctions Regimes

fdd.org · by Eric B. Lorber · June 16, 2021

The 18 page statement can be downloaded here.

The video of the testimony can be viewed a this link: 

 

12. FDD | Tehran’s nuclear secrets have been exposed

fdd.org · by Clifford D. May · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “At a minimum, Iran has a coordinated set of activities related to building a nuclear weapon,” Mr. Albright writes. “At worst, the weaponization team has already conducted a cold test, fulfilled its post-Amad goal of building an industrial prototype, and is regularly practicing and improving their nuclear weaponization craft under various covers or in clandestine locations.”

Which leads to this conclusion: “A reinstated JCPOA combined with less than vigorous IAEA verification of Iran’s military sites, of the type that existed from 2015 until 2018, appears particularly unstable and dangerous.”

 

13. NATO Targets the ‘3 C’s’: China, Cyberattacks and Climate Change

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “Given that the nations collectively spend more than $1 trillion on their defense establishments; operate 28,000 military aircraft and 800 capital warships; and have seven million troops (active and reserve) under command, this will be significant.

The summit also hit some lingering issues as well, with plenty of discussion about Russian aggression, particularly against NATO non-member partners Ukraine and Georgia; Afghanistan, where the withdrawal from that 20-year mission will require more financial and diplomatic support; and effective missile defenses on both sides of the Atlantic.

But the real thrust of the 2021 summit could be summarized as the three C’s: China, cybersecurity and climate. The times are changing, and NATO is changing with them.

 

14. Growth of nuclear arsenals ‘a worrisome sign’

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · June 16, 2021

 

15.  DroneGun Tactical the ultimate UAV killer

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · June 16, 2021

 

16.  FDD | Biden Should Not Lift Sanctions Against Iranian Presidential Candidate Ebrahim Raisi

fdd.org · by Matthew Zweig · June 16, 2021

Excerpt: "Since Executive Order 13876 targets malign Iranian actors and activities both abroad and at home, its application to Raisi and to other senior Iranian officials is a legitimate use of non-nuclear sanctions. To combat the continued misconduct of the regime – both externally and internally – the Biden administration should refrain from lifting any non-nuclear sanctions on Iran, especially on Raisi."

 

17. Suspend Syria and Russia from the WHO

The National Interest · by David Adesnik · June 15, 2021

We must get tough with these international organizations and root out the malign influence of these authoritarian countries that seek to undermine the international order.

Conclusion: “The bipartisan path forward should proceed from the premise that engagement is essential precisely because the WHO and other multilateral organizations are strategic grounds in the struggle against U.S. adversaries. Biden’s interim national security strategy hints as much but shies away from saying it openly. The document warns of an “authoritarian agenda” for manipulating the UN system, then adds, “In a world of deepening rivalry, we will not cede this vital terrain.”

A push to suspend Syria and Russia from the WHO will require substantial effort, but the administration should not see it as a burden. Rather, it is part and parcel of a necessary campaign to shape the multilateral playing field by targeting the real opponents of reform.

 

18. Lost at Sea: How Two Iranian Warships Are Testing American Mettle

thedispatch.com · by Emanuele Ottolenghi

Excerpts: “Events following the Iran deal offer a clear insight into why Iran feels it can dispatch warships to America’s backyard with impunity. The ink was not even dry yet on the JCPOA when Iran began to use its national airline, Iran Air, to move thousands of militia fighters to Syria at the height of its civil war. This was the same airline that, as a major beneficiary of the JCPOA, was about to buy hundreds of Western-made aircraft. Why would Iran jeopardize the nuclear deal and its economic benefits? Because it could. Because it correctly gamed the scenario and anticipated President Obama would not jeopardize what he viewed as a historic diplomatic achievement by acting against the delinquent airline. Tehran knew the U.S. would not push back.

Which brings us back to the two warships. Iran sent them to signal its strength and defiance. It is a challenge to the Biden administration because Tehran, so far correctly, has calculated that the U.S. will do nothing if it thinks it can jeopardize nuclear talks.

Washington should not fall into this trap. The regime in Tehran is not going to walk away from talks that could restore its economic clout—an essential tool in its pursuit of broader global influence. Besides, what is Iran going to do? The U.S. killed Qassem Suleimani, their top general, in January 2020, yet Tehran did little in response.

Tehran needs to know Washington will exact a pound of flesh for its reckless behavior. So far, the Biden administration has given them no reason to think there are any risks involved in provoking Washington. Maybe the two ships will give President Biden an opportunity to reassess his erstwhile inclination to give Tehran a pass.

 

19.  NSA cyber director discusses US response, approach to apparent espionage operation

cyberscoop.com · by Shannon Vavra · June 16, 2021

 

20. Strengthening U.S. Engagement in International Standards Bodies

dayoneproject.org · June 15, 2021

The 28 page report can be download here.

 

-----------------

 

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

 

“If one wanted to crush and destroy a man entirely, to mete out to him the most terrible punishment ... all one would have to do would be to make him do work that was completely and utterly devoid of usefulness and meaning.”

- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

 

"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light. "

- Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1.  'Goodwill' gestures, suspension of joint military drills needed to bring N. Korea to dialogue: experts

2.  New U.S. special envoy for N.K. to visit S. Korea later this week: official

3.  LaCamera to take office as new USFK commander next month

4. North Korea Might Have Up to 50 Nuclear Weapons: Report

5. Note to President Biden: Talk to Kim Jong Un

6. Moon’s Last Chance on North Korea

7. A growing number of South Pyongan Province households are suffering from food shortages

8. Debates arise over call to cancel joint military drills

9. Korea's nuke envoy to hold bilateral, trilateral talks with US, Japanese counterparts

10. N.K. holds key party meeting for second day with focus on economy

11. U.N. discloses thousands of files related to North Korea human rights abuses

12. 'The way to survive': North Korea ramps up recycling amid sanctions and pandemic

13. North Korea Isn't Planning Any Nuclear Weapons Tests Anytime Soon

14. South Korea citizenship law change proposal sparks anti-China backlash

15. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Phone Calls to China and South Korea

 

1. 'Goodwill' gestures, suspension of joint military drills needed to bring N. Korea to dialogue: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 17, 2021

Appeasement.  Moon Chung-in and other such experts are providing dangerous advice. 

And oh by the way, we will not be conducting  Ulchi Freedom Guardian in August.  We have not conducted it for a couple of years now.  We will conduct a Combined Command Post Training event called Dong Maeng 21-2.

If we suspend this training then we may as well start withdrawing US forces because if we cannot train the ROK/US CFC and the subordinate component HQ then we cannot sustain a military alliance.  We have been degrading our training exercises since President Trump unilaterally cancelled Ulchi Freedom Guardian in 2018.  Why haven't the previous cancellations, postponements, and scaling back of training over the past 3 years resulted in any change in regime behavior?  Because Kim does not really care about exercises except that they can be exploited as part of his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.   He wants combined training halted for specific reasons: weaken the combined military force responsible for deterrence and defense and to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.  

My thoughts on the importance of combined training:

The U.S. Military And South Korea Must Train To Deter North Korea

The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward.
 

2. New U.S. special envoy for N.K. to visit S. Korea later this week: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 16, 2021

A 7 hour flight from Jakarta is better than the 14 hour one from DC and the time zone change is minimal!  :-) 

I think Ambassador Kim has been to Panmunjom enough times over the years so I am not sure why the press or Korean officials mention that he is not expected to visit there. I do not see how a visit to Panmunjom will advance the denuclearization issue.

 

3. LaCamera to take office as new USFK commander next month

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 17, 2021

July 2d.

I note in General LaCamera's bio that he was the battalion S3 for 1-506th Infantry at Camp Greaves.  A good unit! :-) 

 

4. North Korea Might Have Up to 50 Nuclear Weapons: Report

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · June 16, 2021

According to SIPRI's new annual report.

 

5. Note to President Biden: Talk to Kim Jong Un

38north.org · by Kenneth B. Dekleva · June 15, 2021

Note the author's bio in the article. 

Very interesting analysis and perspective. Given the author's knowledge and experience we need to pay attention to him.

Here are some of his past writings (and a briefing) on Kim Jong-un;

The Past, Present and Future of Leadership Analysis: Xi, Kim and Putin

The Psychology of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un: The Measure of a Man: Insight from Kenneth Dekleva.

ALL IN THE FAMILY: THE LEADERSHIP STYLES OF KIM IL - SUNG, KIM JONG - I L , AND KIM JONG - U N

Excerpts: “...why can’t he do the same with Chairman Kim, in the search for a durable peace on the Korean Peninsula? Surely President Biden can utilize the 2018 Singapore joint statement and former Special Representative Steve Biegun’s January 2019 speech at Stanford as useful starting points. But this requires that Biden see the world through Chairman Kim’s eyes and psyche. And given his vast foreign policy experience, Biden knows that in negotiations, personal relationships, rapport and empathy truly matter. This requires his meeting with Kim, and taking his measure, and vice-versa.

President Biden’s age—perceived by some as a hindrance, or even a risk—may also offer an opportunity for novel diplomacy. But time is not on his side, as other diplomatic and US domestic political pressures will likely intercede as the year wears on. But by taking a first step, President Biden can earn—as did President Trump during the 2018 Singapore Summit and 2019 visit to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)—Kim’s respect. And respect matters! It can lead to bolder initiatives and the hope of a lasting, durable peace on the Korean Peninsula. This is a key moment for President Biden, and our Asian allies, as well as adversaries such as Russia and China. All are watching closely, and the time to act boldly is now.

 

6. Moon’s Last Chance on North Korea

thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · June 15, 2021

It will be this impatience of the Moon administration that will cause significant friction in the ROK/US alliance.  And unfortunately, Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy will attempt to exploit this impatience and the alliance friction it will cause.

 

7. A growing number of South Pyongan Province households are suffering from food shortages

dailynk.com  · by Seulkee Jang · June 17, 2021

Indicators that bear watching.  There is potential for instability, though as long as the military and security services remain coherent and function and support Kim Jong-un they will be able to suppress any resistance.

 

8. Debates arise over call to cancel joint military drills

The Korea Times  · by Jung Da-min · June 17, 2021

This is getting out of hand.  This is a danger not only to combined military readiness and deterrence but to the alliance writ large. We need voices stronger than Moon Chung-in to counter his dangerous advice.  All past appeasement has not worked. What evidence is there that continued consolation, postponing, and scaling back exercises will change north Korean behavior?

 

9. Korea's nuke envoy to hold bilateral, trilateral talks with US, Japanese counterparts

The Korea Times · June 17, 2021

I hope they can resolve the exercise issue.  The insanity of Moon chiung-in's advice must be shut down.

 

10. N.K. holds key party meeting for second day with focus on economy

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 17, 2021

It is like deja vu all over again.  How many times have we read that party meetings in north Korea are focused on the economy?  How many times has the regime and the party solved its economic problems?

 

11. U.N. discloses thousands of files related to North Korea human rights abuses

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 16, 2021

This should be helpful to researchers and eventually for the necessary truth and reconciliation commission that will be established during the unification process.

 

12. 'The way to survive': North Korea ramps up recycling amid sanctions and pandemic

Reuters · by Minwoo Park

The Korean people in the north do not waste anything.  They are probably the most efficient recyclers in the world at the personal or family level.  But will a national level recycling campaign have any effect? Or is  this simply cosmetic?

Excerpt: "Residents are complaining about the government trying to control everything, even rubbish: 'How can we recycle waste, when we don't even have waste?'"

 

13. North Korea Isn't Planning Any Nuclear Weapons Tests Anytime Soon

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 16, 2021

Absence of evidence - ?

north Korea is masterful at denial and deception.

What if they are planning an atmospheric test, say over the Pacific Ocean?

 

14.  South Korea citizenship law change proposal sparks anti-China backlash

CNN

The Chinese know how to conduct subversion and this would provide the Chinese an easy pathway to subvert Korean society in the coming decades.

 

15. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Phone Calls to China and South Korea

rfa.org · by Myungchul Lee and Jeong Yon Park

Again, this illustrates that Kim Jong-un is afraid, he is very afraid.  And of course cell phones are not only useful for transmitting information they are an excellent conduit for funds.

 

-------------

 

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

 

“If one wanted to crush and destroy a man entirely, to mete out to him the most terrible punishment ... all one would have to do would be to make him do work that was completely and utterly devoid of usefulness and meaning.”

- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

 

"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light. "

- Plato