News

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Find out where Trump and Biden stand on defense and security issues

2. Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries

3. State official: U.S. ties with Japan, India and Australia should be model for region

4. To understand China's aggressive foreign policy, look at its domestic politics

5. Editorial: could the KMT be returning to form?

6. Here's what could happen if China invaded Taiwan

7. Rep. Bi-khim Hsiao: Taiwan's resilience shows the power of freedom and democracy

8. Explainer: how the next WTO chief will be chosen and the task ahead

9. American-made spy boat on secret mission washes up in Scotland

10. U.S. special operations forces are getting ready for war with Russia or China

11. Call it what it is: propaganda

12. How the Air Force could turn transports into heavy gunships

13. Trump suggests he may have contracted coronavirus from Gold Star families

14. The United States can only achieve AI dominance with its allies

15. Why we are suing President Trump

16. Green Beret's free-fall death spotlights concerns, sparks working group

17. Logic and grammar: Clausewitz and the language of war

 

1. Find out where Trump and Biden stand on defense and security issues

Defense News · Aaron Mehta & Joe Gould · October 8, 2020

My biased comment: Korea did not make the list.

 

2. Unfavorable views of China reach historic highs in many countries

Pew Research Center · Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, & Christine Huang · October 6, 2020

A lot of data.

 

3. State official: U.S. ties with Japan, India and Australia should be model for region

USNI News · John Grady · October 8, 2020

I hope so.

 

4. To understand China's aggressive foreign policy, look at its domestic politics

Council on Foreign Relations · Christopher W. Bishop · October 8, 2020

energy security + economic growth + domestic political stability = CCP remaining in power… and the COVID pandemic upsets this equation.

 

5. Editorial: could the KMT be returning to form?

Taipei Times · October 8, 2020

I would be interested in hearing from the Taiwan/China experts analyzing this op-ed.

 

6. Here's what could happen if China invaded Taiwan

Bloomberg · Samson Ellis · October 7, 2020

Some interesting graphics.

 

7. Rep. Bi-khim Hsiao: Taiwan's resilience shows the power of freedom and democracy

National Interest · Bi-khim Hsiao · October 8, 2020

We need to engage the community, coalition, or arsenal of democracy.

 

8. Explainer: How the next WTO chief will be chosen and the task ahead

Reuters · Emma Farge, Philip Blenkinsop, & Catherine Evans · October 8, 2020

 

9. American-made spy boat on secret mission washes up in Scotland

Popular Mechanics · Kyle Mizokami · October 8, 2020

Oops???

 

10. U.S. special operations forces are getting ready for war with Russia or China

National Interest · Peter Suciu · October 8, 2020

To beat a horse more dead, here are my thoughts, especially after the publication of the IW annex.

My main criticism of the IW annex is that it did not take the opportunity to revise the very poor definition of IW. The 2007 3000.7 was a compromise definition among the interagency and there was tremendous pushback on the concept from civilian agencies and, in particular, State. The definition is also simply another description of COIN, which is unfortunate. Congress provided a much more comprehensive and useful description of IW that is much more relevant for GPC.

The 2007 DODI 3000.7 definition: a "violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations." It said that IW consisted of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).

Congress wrote in the 2018 NDAA: irregular warfare is conducted "in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict."

Here is how I would summarize IW in terms of Great Power Competition. I will be writing more about this as I think we need more of an emphasis on political warfare.

Problem:

We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.

Solution:

Learn to lead with influence

Learn to counter and conduct political warfare campaigns

Competition equals Political Warfare  most likely

State on state warfare less likely  most dangerous

I am really going to focus on SOF and the IW annex. I am gratified to see that the Unconventional Warfare was, at least, mentioned in the annex.

Yet there seems to be a conspiracy against UW in DOD and even in the SOF community. The Joint Staff has decided not to update the Joint UW doctrine (JP 3-05.1), published for the first and only time in 2015 (and then the J7 made it FOUO, which is the best way to marginalize any doctrine).

These two strategic vision documents (below) from USASOC and 1st Special Forces Command do not mention UW at all (of course, the focus is on resistance, but resistance is a fundamental aspect of UW - in fact it is the foundation of UW). I will write more on this discussing the importance of the IW annex and the inflection point at which we have arrived.

Army Special Operations Strategy & 1st Special Forces Command - A Vision for 2021 and Beyond

Rather than ignoring or marginalizing UW, DOD and the Joint Staff should be directing an update of Joint UW doctrine in accordance with the IW annex.

My description of special operations includes the two SOF "trinities" and the no fail mission requirement with the foundation for the trinities being "UW thinking."

UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal, and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) complex political-military problems.

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of the population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it includes an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP/CA.

The Two SOF "Trinities":

1. Irregular Warfare

2. Unconventional Warfare

3. Support to Political Warfare

The Comparative advantage of SOF:

1. Governance

2. Influence

3. Support to indigenous forces and populations

…with exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions.

 

11. Call it what it is: propaganda

Politico · John Maxwell Hamilton & Kevin R. Kosar · October 8, 2020

$300 million? Couldn't this money be better spent on ensuring election security? This is, of course, a comprehensive critique of the administration and its actions and intended action.

 

12. How the Air Force could turn transports into heavy gunships

National Interest · Caleb Larson · October 8, 2020

Imitation is the greatest form of flattery. Spooky, isn't it?

 

13. Trump suggests he may have contracted coronavirus from Gold Star families

Military Times · Leo Shane III · October 8, 2020

No words.

 

14. The United States can only achieve AI dominance with its allies

War On the Rocks · James Ryseff · October 9, 2020

Allies are important on so many levels.

 

15. Why we are suing President Trump

Just Security · Diane Marie Amann et al. · October 8, 2020

The ICC. This is quite an indictment.

 

16. Green Beret's free-fall death spotlights concerns, sparks working group

Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · October 9, 2020

 

17. Logic and grammar: Clausewitz and the language of war

Strategy Bridge · Christopher Saunders · October 9, 2020

 

"You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed mostly to cover somebody's ass. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS.”

- William Casey on the OSS

“False words are not only evil themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”

- Socrates

“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”

- Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Kim Jong Un’s military parade seen as potential North Korean weapons showcase

2. North Korean businessman in Malaysia loses appeal against extradition to US

3. N.K. likely to unveil new ICBM during parade: sources

4. Senior N.K. officials visit mausoleum for late leaders ahead of party anniversary

5. Why President Moon keeps pushing for end-of-war declaration

6. North Korea claims new military milestone ahead of anniversary

7. US Forces Korea reports first local coronavirus transmissions in six months

8. Better protection for defectors: question raised over disclosure of envoy's defection

9. North Korea ‘to show strength and defiance’ with military parade

10. What we can expect to see at North Korea's 'biggest military parade'

11. Kim's get-well message to Trump a "good sign" for progress: Knapper

12. Unification minister orders probe into information leak on ex-N.K. diplomat's defection

13. N. Korea used word meaning 'defection' while handling drifting S. Korean official: JSC chairman

14. S. Korea initially saw slim chance of missing official crossing into N.K.: defense chief

15. JCS chief says conditions for OPCON transfer could be revised if transition delayed too much

16. North Korea's October 10 military parade: what 12 experts think we will see

17. Column: North Korea’s apology and South Korea’s vital leadership

18. Fears for senior diplomat’s family in North Korea after South Korean lawmakers reveal his defection

19. N. Koreans are forced to drink water containing ashes of dead inmates

20. 'Peace hospital' should be built in Korean DMZ, South's doctors say

 

1. Kim Jong Un’s military parade seen as potential North Korean weapons showcase

Wall Street Journal · Timothy Martin & Andrew Jeong · October 8, 2020

Soon we will know what Kim wants to show us.

 

2. North Korean Businessman in Malaysia Loses Appeal Against Extradition to US

Radio Free Asia · BenarNews · October 8, 2020

It will be interesting to see the trial of this north Korean businessman in the US.

 

3. N.K. likely to unveil new ICBM during parade: sources

Yonhap News Agency · [email protected] · October 9, 2020

If we do not see a new ICBM, I wonder if the North Korea Propaganda and Agitation Department will chastise all the pundits who predicted we would see a new one. We should know in a few hours.

 

4. Senior N.K. officials visit mausoleum for late leaders ahead of party anniversary

Yonhap News Agency · October 9, 2020

Hmmm....  Here is the first interesting indicator. Kim Jong-Un did not make the visit.

 

5. Why President Moon keeps pushing for end-of-war declaration

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · October 9, 2020

Okay, so this is a message to a potential Biden administration. But this article, like all the rest, does not answer the questions of what substantive effects will be achieved by an end of war declarations, what behavior will be changed in North Korea, and how will this enhance the security of South Korea?

The vague "opening the door for peace" and " trust building" are based on the assumption that Kim Jong-Un wants peace and shares Moon Jae-In's vision for North Korean engagement. I think this is an erroneous assumption, because Kim has shown no signs of giving up his strategy to dominate the peninsula under Northern rule.

 

6. North Korea claims new military milestone ahead of anniversary

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 8, 2020

The Propaganda and Agitation Department is reading us. What is the new "military milestone?"

 

7. US Forces Korea reports first local coronavirus transmissions in six months

Stars & Stripes · Kim Gamel · October 8, 2020

 

8. Better protection for defectors: question raised over disclosure of envoy’s defection

Korea Times · Editorial · October 8, 2020

Again, it is the height of irresponsibility to make these kinds of disclosures. Escapees must be respected and protected. But, of course, politics drives everything.

 

9. North Korea ‘to show strength and defiance’ with military parade

Al Jazeera · Zaheena Rasheed · October 9, 2020

Defiance is probably one of the most important words to use in describing North Korea.

 

10. What we can expect to see at North Korea's 'biggest military parade'

BBC · Laura Bicker · October 9, 2020

 

11. Kim's get-well message to Trump a "good sign" for progress: Knapper

Yonhap News Agency · Byun Duk-kun · October 9, 2020

I think the title is a little misleading about Mr. Knapper's remarks. His "I suppose" seems to be an appropriate caveat to his statement - something like on the surface it seems like a good sign. But we need

 

12. Unification minister orders probe into information leak on ex-N.K. diplomat's defection

Yonhap News Agency · Yi Wonju · October 8, 2020

Necessary. But the MOU has not seemed to be supportive of escapees/defectors.

 

13. N. Korea used word meaning 'defection' while handling drifting S. Korean official: JSC chairman

Yonhap News Agency · [email protected] · October 8, 2020

There should have been strong caveats in South Korea statements - such as "the North Korean military said that the civil servant intended to defect; however, we have no indication that was true." Also, this article shows the challenges of signal intelligence. And we should also consider that the North knows that the South and US collects signals intelligence, so it is possible they may be using deception techniques and sending messages they want us to hear.

 

14. S. Korea initially saw slim chance of missing official crossing into N.K.: defense chief

Yonhap News Agency · Oh Seok-min · October 8, 2020

More information is coming out about this tragic event.

 

15. JCS chief says conditions for OPCON transfer could be revised if transition delayed too much

Yonhap News Agency · Choi Soo-hyang · October 8, 2020

We should ask if the OPCON transition process is a political action or the natural evolution of the alliance that will enhance the security of the ROK and serve ROK and US national security interests? If it is about the security of the ROK, then all the conditions for transition must be met. You do to revise the conditions to meet a timeline unless you put politics ahead of national security. The Chairman is walking a tightrope between his professional military experience (and knowing what is right from a military and national security perspective) and the political desires of his President.

And, as I beat the dead horse, Seoul is not "retaking" OPCON from the US. The ROK/US Combined Forces Command is equally owned by both the ROK and US. When the change of command occurs and a ROK general officer is in command of the ROK/US CFC, he will still answer directly to the Military Committee, which consists of representatives of the national command and military authorities of both countries. He should also make the same statement that every US commander has made since 1978: as the

 

16. North Korea's October 10 military parade: what 12 experts think we will see

National Interest · Harry J. Kazianis · October 8, 2020

A handy scorecard for when we see the parade. Choose your "expert."

 

17. Column: North Korea’s apology and South Korea’s vital leadership

Chicago Tribune · Arthur I. Cyr · October 8, 2020

This article has the most positive spin that I have seen concerning the NK apology, Moon's leadership, and the ROK/US military relationship. 

 

18. Fears for senior diplomat’s family in North Korea after South Korean lawmakers reveal his defection

Radio Free Asia · Eugene Whong · October 7, 2020

My comments below have apparently upset the national assemblyman, Ha Tae-keung. He wants RFA to retract this allegation. But we are reading multiple reports that he did, in fact, confirm the information about Jo's defection.

 

19. N. Koreans are forced to drink water containing ashes of dead inmates

Daily Mail · Michael Havis · October 8, 2020

Just so not one forgets the evil nature of the Kim family regime. Kim's human rights abuses are crimes against humanity, and we must expose and address them.

 

20. 'Peace hospital' should be built in Korean DMZ, South's doctors say

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · October 8, 2020

This is another symbolic gesture that would never come to fruition and effective use as long as the Kim family regime rules the North.

 

"You didn't wait six months for a feasibility study to prove that an idea could work. You gambled that it might work. You didn't tie up the organization with red tape designed mostly to cover somebody's ass. You took the initiative and the responsibility. You went around end, you went over somebody's head if you had to. But you acted. That's what drove the regular military and the State Department chair-warmers crazy about the OSS.”

- William Casey on the OSS

“False words are not only evil themselves, but they infect the soul with evil.”

- Socrates

“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”

- Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US military hasn't used $60 million in South Korean defense funds, data show

2. Does South Korea still need US troops?

3. North Korean Defector Who Vanished in Rome Is Now in South Korea

4.  The Iran-North Korea Axis Rides On

5. Moon hopes for S. Korea-U.S. collaboration on declaring end to Korean War

6. N. Korea's media-carried criticism against South jumped more than sixfold last year: data

7. North Korea may return to fire-and-fury mode in time to ruin 2021

8. Nigerian, South Korean make last round of WTO chief race - sources

9. [In-Depth] Denuclearization of North Korea driven to a dead end...Re-emergence of 'regime transformation' solution

10.  Sanctions a powerful tool, but take time to have effect: U.S. security adviser

11. N.Korean Diplomat Failed to Gain Asylum in Europe

12. N. Korean military told to block "quarantine contaminants" at border

13. N. Korea increases number of checkpoints nationwide ahead of Party Foundation Day

14. North may unveil new ICBM: Unification Ministry

15. North Korea's Big October 10 Military Parade: Here Come the ICBMs?

16. North Korean Port Cities Hit Hard by Trade Sanctions, Coronavirus Closures

17. Korean War: The Forgotten Heroism of U.S. Army Infantry Soldiers at Chosin Reservoir

18. Taiwan inspects port, tells shippers to follow North Korea sanctions

19. How N.Korea Holds Diplomats' Children Hostage

 

1.  US military hasn't used $60 million in South Korean defense funds, data show

stripes.com

This is explainable but unfortunately the complexity of contracting and facilities construction makes it very difficult to explain.  But the key point is a ROK legislator is releasing this to put pressure on the US in the stalled SMA.  We must keep in mind that any agreement between the US and the ROK must be approved by the ROK General Assembly.  

 

2. Does South Korea still need US troops?

Asia Times  · by Andrew Salmon · October 7, 2020

Like most of these kinds of analyses the wrong question is asked.  The right question is does the US need troops in South Korea.  And the answer is yes because they serve US national security interests.

 

3. North Korean Defector Who Vanished in Rome Is Now in South Korea

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong· October 7, 2020

The north of course knew about this escape more than a year ago.  It does somewhat undermine the regime but its Propaganda and Agitation Department can and will spin this to make it appear to be South Korea's fault.

I am sure that South Korea tried to keep this information confidential so that it would not get in the way of its efforts to improve north-South relations. Surely north Korea will try to exploit this and use it against South Korea.

It was the height of irresponsibility for a South Korean lawmaker to release this information.  He has put Jo and his wife in great danger.  His daughter had already been returned to north Korea when Jo and his wife "vanished" and if she is still alive, I expect her to suffer even more.

I think all defections/escapes are personal and unique. It is hard to know if this will influence others but each person defects and escapes for various reasons (particularly high officials). Recall Hwang Jong-yop thought Kim Jong-il was going to either go to war or catastrophically damage north Korea and he defected to try to keep peace on the Korean peninsula. Thae Yong-ho defected because his son's did not want to return to Pyongyang and he could no longer explain the contradiction that is north Korea.  

Most senior escapee/defectors are exposed.  I think in this case Jo's situation was kept confidential because the Moon administration did not want to harm possible north-South engagement.

 

4. The Iran-North Korea Axis Rides On

dailysignal.com · by Peter Brookes · October 7, 2020

Again, read Dr. Bruce Bechtol's research on this.  In fact I Iranian military analysts should be watching the north Korean military parade on October 10th because as Bruce always reminds, me if you see it in north Korea you will eventually see it in Iran.

 

5. Moon hopes for S. Korea-U.S. collaboration on declaring end to Korean War

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · October 8, 2020

President Moon and his administration need to lay out exactly what effects they hope to achieve with an "end of war declaration."  This is not some kind of "feel good" action.  What do they expect north Korea do if there is an end of war declaration and how is the security of the ROK going to be enhanced by an end of war declaration with the world's 4th largest army that is offensively postured with 70% of its forces deployed along the DMZ to Pyongyang and possess nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.  And most important, how does this enhance the security of the ROK when the unchanged objective of the regime is to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

6. N. Korea's media-carried criticism against South jumped more than sixfold last year: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · October 8, 2020

Why is this? It is an indication of the weakness of the regime.  

As Dr. Jung Pak often asks, Who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?

The answer is he fears the Korean people living in the north.  And he fears them even more when they are armed with information and in particular information about the South. That is because it is the example of the South's freedom, and advanced social, political, economic, and military development is a threat to the Kim family regime. Kim Jong-un fears his people and their desire to live the life of those in the South.  This is why the Propaganda and Agitation Department has had to increase propaganda to try to counter this.

 

7. North Korea may return to fire-and-fury mode in time to ruin 2021

asia.nikkei.com

It is probably a good bet to put your money on a return to fire-and-fury. However, we should not be focused on the short term tactical.  We need to focus on the regime long term political warfare and the key elements of its strategy and objectives and focus on these questions:

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has or will ever abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

8. Nigerian, South Korean make last round of WTO chief race - sources

Reuters · by Emma Farge · October 7, 2020

 

9. [In-Depth] Denuclearization of North Korea driven to a dead end...Re-emergence of 'regime transformation' solution

VOA-Korea· by Bae Sung-won · October 8, 2020

This is a google translation of an in-depth article in Korean by Voice of America.  It quotes many Korea watchers (including yours truly) - in which I advocate for a United Republic of Korea).  If VOA published an English version I will forward it.

 

10. Sanctions a powerful tool, but take time to have effect: U.S. security adviser

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 8, 2020

Sanctions are a critical part of a holistic strategy that must include strong diplomatic and military aspects, as well as cyber offense and defense, with an information and influence activities campaign tying everything together and focused on multiple target audiences.

 

11. N. Korean Diplomat Failed to Gain Asylum in Europe

english.chosun.com

It will be interesting to learn how he traveled around Europe and for how long before he went to a South Korean embassy.  What kind of assistance did he and his wife receive?

And then there is the question of why did the ROK release this information now? Here is some speculation:

“There is some perplexity why Jo's arrival here was revealed only now. Some politicians speculate that this has to do with the appointment of NIS chief Park Jie-won in July this year. A former seasoned lawmaker, Park has been more willing to share information about North Korea with the National Assembly than his predecessor Suh Hoon. Some suspect he is trying to divert attention from the government's shameful behavior over the killing of a South Korean official by North Korean soldiers at sea.

There is also speculation that the government kept Jo's arrival here secret because it still had hopes of engaging with North Korea.”

 

12. N. Korean military told to block "quarantine contaminants" at border

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · October 8, 2020

Draconian population and resources control measures.  Yes this must help to prevent COVID infiltration.  However, the 400+ markets are suffering tremendously and this is harming the people significantly.  This reminds me of the old adage, "we had to burn the village to save it."

 

13. N. Korea increases number of checkpoints nationwide ahead of Party Foundation Day

dailynk.com· by Jeong Tae Jao · October 7, 2020

Yes, internal movement restrictions may contribute to the spread of COVID.  They also contribute to security for the regime but they impact economic activity which again is what leads to the suffering of the Korean people.  The most important safety valve for the survival of the Korean people is market activity and it is being significantly curtailed by regime policy actions.  Despite the natural disasters and COVID the suffering of the people lies on the shoulders of Kim Jong-un and his deliberate policy decisions.

 

14. North may unveil new ICBM: Unification Ministry

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

The MOU should stay in its lane.  Military and intelligence analysis should be left to MND and the NIS.  This is another reason why  MOU should be absorbed by MOFA and become a planning directorate focused exclusively on planning for unification.  Or if it remains a separate Ministry it should focus only on coordinating the plans of the ROK government for unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea. (UROK).

 

15. North Korea's Big October 10 Military Parade: Here Come the ICBMs?

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · October 7, 2020

What are the Vegas oddsmakers saying?

A very good description of the regime: "The next big event of this kind is on October 10 - the seventy-fifth anniversary of the foundation of North Korea's ruling Workers Party. This is ironic. The party is not one of workers but of loyalist ideologues and bureaucrats with little exposure to the party's ostensible proletarian heritage. The party also does not rule; Kim and his extended clan do. North Korean governance is more like the mafia than a one-party state of Stalinist yore. North Korea is a monarchy undergirded by a family-cronyist network at the top, and the party exists to ensure compliance, indoctrinate, and mobilize. The party does engage not policy construction or even Lenin's 'democratic centralism.' All the Marxist party iconography you will see this week - hammers and sickles redolent of communist parties of the twentieth century - are just holdovers, totally irrelevant to the regime's actual ideology, which is a bizarre mix of hypernationalism and theocracy around the Kim family as semi-divine. But no matter. Ideological consistency ceased to matter decades ago when the Kim family personality cult displaced any rigorous ideational structure."

 

16. North Korean Port Cities Hit Hard by Trade Sanctions, Coronavirus Closures

rfa.org·  Jieun Kim· October 7, 2020

The coronavirus mitigation measures by north Korea are affecting the economy more than sanctions.

 

17. Korean War: The Forgotten Heroism of U.S. Army Infantry Soldiers at Chosin Reservoir

The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · October 7, 2020

Note this conclusion:  Not until recent years have Task Force Faith's men been appreciated. An examination of Chinese records revealed the men were greatly outnumbered, and it was realized that their duel with the Chinese kept considerable pressure off the Marines, enabling them to conduct an orderly retreat. In 1999, Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig awarded the unit a Presidential Unit Citation. In 2000, veterans of the task force were invited by the Marine Corps to attend anniversary ceremonies for the Chosin campaign. Nevertheless, the U.S. Army has yet to recognize Task Force Faith for its hopeless battle with the enemy.

 

18. Taiwan inspects port, tells shippers to follow North Korea sanctions

in.reuters.com · by Ben Blanchard

Good. Do not be like the PRC.

 

19. How N.Korea Holds Diplomats' Children Hostage

english.chosun.com

This should be no surprise,  but it is just another indicator of the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

 

-----------------

 

"If we should have to fight, we should be prepared to do so from the neck up instead of from the neck down."

- General Jimmy Doolittle.

 

"If you are not at the table, you are on the menu," 

- US Senator Michael Enzi.

 

"Sometimes the things that may or may not be true are the things that a man needs to believe in the most. That people are basically good. That honor, courage and virtues mean everything. That power and money, money and power mean nothing; that Good always triumphs over Evil; and I want you to remember this: That Love, true Love never dies. Doesn't matter if any of this is true or not. You see a man should believe in these things because these are the things worth believing in."

- Robert Duvall in "Second Hand Lions"

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. How Russia Today Skirts High-Tech Blockade to Reach U.S. Readers

2. China, Iran, Russia, N. Korea, 22 others accuse US of ‘systematic racial discrimination’ at UN

3.  China’s Disinformation Campaign in the Philippines

4. $141 million construction project planned at Army base in Germany

5.  China is telling its military propagandists to steer clear of stories about the US election

6. The U.S. Military is Preparing for an "Irregular" War

7. McMaster and commander in chief

8. All US Troops In Afghanistan To Withdraw By Christmas, Trump Tweets

9. Small rotations to far-flung Southeast Asian countries are likely the future of INDOPACOM assignments

10. Army proceeding with $1.7 million range project in Stuttgart despite troop drawdown plan

11. Esper plans more official travel as calls grow for him to stay put

12. Meet the Army's 'Night Stalkers,' the special-operations pilots who can fly anything anywhere in the world

13. Perspective | We’re suing the Pentagon to find out where U.S. troops are deployed

14. Why Conspiracy Theories Are So Addictive Right Now

15. QAnon High Priest Was Just Trolling Away as a Citigroup Tech Executive

16. China Uses the U.N. to Expand Its Surveillance Reach

17. The False Promise of Regime Change - Why Washington Keeps Failing in the Middle East

18. Why the Pentagon Should Focus on Taiwan

 

1. How Russia Today Skirts High-Tech Blockade to Reach U.S. Readers

WSJ · by Keach Hagey, Emily Glazer and Rob Barry· October 7, 2020

This is quite an indictment.
 

“The company responsible for RT’s presence on RealClearPolitics is Mixi.Media. Since its launch in 2018, Mixi has assembled a network of right-leaning publishers, including National Review, The Daily Caller and Newsmax, as well as mainstream sites like RealClearPolitics. Also in Mixi’s fold are RT and another Russian state-backed outlet, Sputnik.”

 

2. China, Iran, Russia, N. Korea, 22 others accuse US of ‘systematic racial discrimination’ at UN

americanmilitarynews.com

 

3. China’s Disinformation Campaign in the Philippines

thediplomat.com · by Gregory Winger · October 6, 2020

Unrestricted Warfare.  Three Warfares: psychological warfare, legal warfare or lawfare, and media or public opinion warfare.  In short, this is political warfare warfare.

Operation Naval Gazing.  What a code name!

A somber conclusion we should reflect on: "At its heart, Operation Naval Gazing is a warning siren as to whether Tokyo, Seoul, Canberra, Manila and especially Washington are willing to take proactive measures to defend their information environments. If not, they will again risk being caught flatfooted as a foreign actor learns to use social media to undermine their collective security."

 

4. $141 million construction project planned at Army base in Germany

Stars and Stripes

I have fond memories of Graf in the early 1980s.  I wonder when the White House reads this if it will be subject to change.

 

5. China is telling its military propagandists to steer clear of stories about the US election

Business Insider · by William Zheng

Hmmm...

 

6.  The U.S. Military is Preparing for an "Irregular" War

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · October 7, 2020

We should think about how to describe Irregular Warfare.  I think Congress has done a better job than DOD:

“The 2007 DODI 3000.7 definition: a “violent struggle among state and non-state actors for legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.”  It said that IW consisted of UW, foreign internal defense (FID), CT, counterinsurgency, and stability operations (SO).

Congress wrote in the 2018 NDAA:  Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

Problem:
We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.

Solution:
Learn to lead with influence
Learn to counter and conduct political warfare campaigns

Competition equals Political Warfare - Most likely
State on state warfare less likely  - Most dangerous

 

7. McMaster and commander in chief

fdd.org · by Clifford D. May · October 7, 2020

 

8. All US Troops In Afghanistan To Withdraw By Christmas, Trump Tweets

defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams

Are tweets official orders?  Strategic guidance?

 

9. Small rotations to far-flung Southeast Asian countries are likely the future of INDOPACOM assignments

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · October 7, 2020

Don't give up the high ground.  You can do both.  But before we give up the hubs of Japan and (potentially) Korea we should make sure these small rotations actually support the strategy and are feasible and sustainable.

 

10. Army proceeding with $1.7 million range project in Stuttgart despite troop drawdown plan

Stars and Stripes · by John Vandiver  · October 7, 2020

We should keep in mind most military construction is on a five year plan.  And then there are contractual obligations with construction companies and of course congressional oversight.  You can change the direction of military construction on a whim or a dime.

 

11. Esper plans more official travel as calls grow for him to stay put

Politico · October 7, 2020

I do not think our senior leaders should adopt a bumper mentality and hunker down.  And in the era of modern communications the SECDEF is always connected and is as virtually close to the White House as he is if he is in the Pentagon.

I would also ask is he planning more travel or is he executing travel already planned?

 

12. Meet the Army's 'Night Stalkers,' the special-operations pilots who can fly anything anywhere in the world

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

13. Perspective | We’re suing the Pentagon to find out where U.S. troops are deployed

The Washington Post· by Kate Brannen and Ryan Goodman  · October 7, 2020

We used to have a lot of detail on deployments around the world.  But there needs to be a balance among OPSEC, informing the public and its right to know, and politics.

 

14. Why Conspiracy Theories Are So Addictive Right Now

The New York Times · by Kevin Roose · October 7, 2020

It continues to amaze me how many people believe in conspiracy theories.

 

15. QAnon High Priest Was Just Trolling Away as a Citigroup Tech Executive

Bloomberg · by William Turton · October 7, 2020

Now this is an amazing story.  What radicalized this guy?

 

16.  China Uses the U.N. to Expand Its Surveillance Reach

WSJ · by Claudia Rosett· October 7, 2020

 

17. The False Promise of Regime Change - Why Washington Keeps Failing in the Middle East

Foreign Affairs · by Philip H. Gordon · October 7, 2020

Conclusion:

“In the future, there may be cases in which mass terrorism, genocide, a direct attack on the United States, or a country using or proliferating nuclear weapons makes the benefits of removing a threatening regime exceed the costs. But if history is any guide, such cases will be rare to nonexistent. And even where they exist, they demand caution, humility, and honesty about the likely costs and consequences.

Regime change will always tempt Washington. So long as there are states that threaten American interests and mistreat their people, U.S. leaders and pundits will periodically be pulled toward the idea that Americans can use their unparalleled military, diplomatic, and economic power to get rid of bad regimes and replace them with better ones. The long, diverse, and tragic history of U.S.-backed regime change in the Middle East, however, suggests that such temptations—like most quick fixes that come along in life and politics—should be resisted. The next time U.S. leaders propose intervening in the region to overthrow a hostile regime, it can safely be assumed that such an enterprise will be less successful, more costly, and more replete with unintended consequences than proponents realize or admit. So far, at least, it has never been the other way around.”

 

18. Why the Pentagon Should Focus on Taiwan

warontherocks.com · by Elbridge Colby · October 7, 2020

Conclusion: The Defense Department is rightly focused on China in Asia and on restoring the American military’s edge vis-à-vis Beijing. The best way the Pentagon can serve these goals is to prioritize defending Taiwan over all other contingencies in its planning. Doing so will be challenging and likely involve significant change, but it can — and should — be done to deter and, if necessary, prevail in a war with the most challenging rival the United States has faced in a generation.

 

-----------------

 

 

If we should have to fight, we should be prepared to do so from the neck up instead of from the neck down.”

- General Jimmy Doolittle.

 

“If you are not at the table, you are on the menu,” 

- US Senator Michael Enzi.

 

"Sometimes the things that may or may not be true are the things that a man needs to believe in the most. That people are basically good. That honor, courage and virtues mean everything. That power and money, money and power mean nothing; that Good always triumphs over Evil; and I want you to remember this: That Love, true Love never dies. Doesn't matter if any of this is true or not. You see a man should believe in these things because these are the things worth believing in."

- Robert Duvall in "Second Hand Lions"

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Russia trying to stoke societal tensions and white supremacy is the most lethal threat to the United States, new DHS report says

2. Exclusive: German official quashed intelligence report on China's influence

3. A Quad of consequence: Balancing values and strategy

4. In Tokyo, Pompeo Touts Quad Forum as Way to Counter China

5. Years after they fought in Afghanistan, US troops watch as their children deploy to the same war

6. A U.S. soldier is returning from abroad. CBP may not allow him back.

7. H.R. McMaster's 'Neither Trump' Manifesto

8. Facebook bans QAnon across its platforms

9. U.S. says Taiwan military budget boost insufficient for 'resilient defense'

10. Nearly 40 nations criticize China's human rights policies

11. U.S. Raises China Concerns Over Israel's Sale of Largest Seaport

12. Japan Unveils Record $52 Billion Military Budget (Thanks to China and North Korea)

13. Joint Doctrine for Unconventional Warfare 2.0

14. Quad gains traction as unified anti-China front

15. To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service

16.  The four presidential prospects need to unite against China

17. Cambodia confirms US-funded defence facility has been razed

18. The Future of Chinese Power

19. Why Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine of US-China confrontation

 

1. Russia trying to stoke societal tensions and white supremacy is the most lethal threat to the United States, new DHS report says

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima and Shane Harris · October 6, 2020

Here is the link to the DHS report.  

We should take this serious and remember our responsibility to defend ourselves.  Our NSS lays out our responsibilities as critical thinking citizens.

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

2. Exclusive: German official quashed intelligence report on China's influence

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Chinese malign influence is a global threat. 

 

3. A Quad of consequence: Balancing values and strategy

lowyinstitute.org · by Titli Basu

Good assessment of the Quad:

“Power asymmetry with neighbours and Beijing's hegemonic aspirations fuels its vision of a Chinese century, as opposed to an Asian century. Beijing's aggressive strategic posturing during a pandemic illustrates the Chinese Communist Party's relentless push to advance a Sino-centric order. It has further sharpened the clash over political values, rules, norms and principles.

While there is no appetite in India for entering any formal alliance system, there is certainly deeper strategic coordination.

Beijing sees the Quad through the lens of a military alliance, as the core of an Indo-Pacific strategy directed towards containing China. The Quad is seen as Tokyo's project to marginalise and offset Beijing's regional primacy. The Quad certainly touches a nerve in Beijing.”

Conclusion: "Abe Shinzo has left office but his strategic vision of Asia's Democratic Security Diamond forms one of the key pillars for stability in the post-Covid order. As the Quad gathers in Tokyo, the participants should agree on a joint statement that both manages expectations yet imparts a clear strategic vision and an action plan on key issues that will shape the future of the liberal order. As Quad gains strategic heft, a positive and productive memo will be crucial in garnering regional support."

 

4. In Tokyo, Pompeo Touts Quad Forum as Way to Counter China

voanews.com · by William Gallo· October 6, 2020

This is the challenge.  Some members feel forced to make a choice but instead need and want to walk the tightrope between China and the US:

“The complex web of competing economic interests and rivalries in Asia has made it difficult for even some formal U.S. allies to choose between the U.S. and China. Many say the choice does not need to be made at all.”

“Asked earlier this month about the hypothetical idea of joining an expanded Quad, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha reacted negatively, ‘We don't think anything that automatically shuts out, and is exclusive of, the interests of others is a good idea,’ she said, according to the Yonhap news agency. ‘If that's a structured alliance, we will certainly think very hard whether it serves our security interests.’"

 

5. Years after they fought in Afghanistan, US troops watch as their children deploy to the same war

Stars and Stripes · by JP Lawrence and Philip Walter Wellman · October 6, 2020

Something we should all reflect on.

 

6. A U.S. soldier is returning from abroad. CBP may not allow him back.

The Washington Post · October 6, 2020

Truth is stranger than fiction.  Some of these cases are hard to fathom.

 

7. H.R. McMaster's 'Neither Trump' Manifesto

Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · October 6, 2020

The pundits wished for a tell all. Instead, they found an intellectual treatment of US national security.

 

8. Facebook bans QAnon across its platforms

NBC News · October 6, 2020

Yes, I support free speech without question (every aspect from flag burning to conspiracy theories and everything in between except yelling fire in a theater).  I do not think a democratic government should ever restrict it.  However, non-government organizations (e.g., businesses) can police their platforms. I wish no one had to restrict this and I wish all people could think critically and not fall for this kind of conspiracy theory crap.  But I wonder what effect this will have.

 

9. U.S. says Taiwan military budget boost insufficient for 'resilient defense'

Reuters · by David Brunnstrom · October 6, 2020

I fear Taiwan's defense budget could never be big enough.  A very interesting statement from Dave Helvey:

"While the PLA's actions are real and dangerous, the PLA is not unbeatable," he said. "Taiwan can, through smart investments, send a clear signal to Beijing that Taiwan's society and its armed forces are absolutely committed to the defense of Taiwan."

Referring to the proposed defense budget, he added:

"These increases, while a step in the right direction, however, are insufficient to ensure that Taiwan can leverage its geography, advanced technology, workforce and patriotic population to channel Taiwan's inherent advantages necessary for a resilient defense."

 

10.  Nearly 40 nations criticize China's human rights policies

Los Angeles Times · by Associated Press · October 7, 2020

Good.  But 40 is not enough by a long shot.

 

11. U.S. Raises China Concerns Over Israel's Sale of Largest Seaport

Bloomberg · by Ivan Levingston · October 6, 2020

I understand this will provide an excellent location for Chinese ISR activities.

 

12. Japan Unveils Record $52 Billion Military Budget (Thanks to China and North Korea)

The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · October 6, 2020

But will it change its constitution to be able to effectively employ its military capabilities?

 

13. Joint Doctrine for Unconventional Warfare 2.0

linkedin.com · by Robert Burrell

A short but important essay from the author of the USSOCOM Joint UW doctrine in 2015.  As soon as the Joint UW pub was published the Joint Staff made it FOUO.  As a mentor of mine said if you want to make doctrine irrelevant you make it FOUO.  

Now we have the unclassified IW annex which does describe UW as fundamental to IW.

Yet there seems to be a conspiracy against UW in DOD and even in the SOF community.

These two strategic vision documents from USASOC and 1st Special Forces Command do not mention UW at all (of course the focus is on resistance but resistance is a fundamental aspect of UW - in fact it is the foundation of UW) . I will write more on this in a formal OpEd discussing the importance of the IW annex and the inflection point at which we have arrived:

Army Special Operations Strategy 

1st Special Forces Command: A Vision for 2021 and Beyond

Rather than ignoring or marginalizing UW DOD and the Joint Staff should be directing an update of Joint UW doctrine in accordance with the IW annex.

Joint Doctrine for Unconventional Warfare 2.0

 

14. Quad gains traction as unified anti-China front

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · October 6, 2020

Overly optimistic assessment?

 

15. To stop a Chinese invasion, Taiwan has to first fight the stigma of military service

Los Angeles Times · by David Pierson · October 6, 2020

Everyone on Taiwan will have to be in this fight.  Resistance among the people will be critical and if developed now and capabilities demonstrated it can become unconventional deterrence to support overall deterrence of the PRC.

 

16.  The four presidential prospects need to unite against China

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · October 6, 2020

 

17. Cambodia confirms US-funded defence facility has been razed

thejakartapost.com · by The Jakarta Post· October 04, 2020

Chinese political and economic warfare is being practiced in Cambodia.

 

18. The Future of Chinese Power

defenseone.com · by Michael Schuman

 

19.  Why Taiwan is the canary in the coal mine of US-China confrontation

SCMP · by Antonio C. Hsiang · October 07, 2020

This quote is going in my quote book:

"If you are not at the table, you are on the menu," US Senator Michael Enzi once said.

 

----------

 

"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the 1st Special Service Force.  The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets, but the problem with the U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wider implications.  OSS was a hybrid with strong political and intelligence flavors.

- LTG (USA-RET) William P. Yarborough

Southern Pines, NC

December 1982

 

"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction best shot." 

- T.E. Lawrence

 

"There is an immutable law of the SOF bureaucracy which states that an operation becomes more feasible the farther aware one is from the physical risks involved in that operation."

 - CPT William H. Burgess III, April  1986

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. A Letter from the Son of the Man Killed, Burnt by North Korea on September 22, 2020: Restore My Father's Honor

2.  Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North's highest military rank

3. 2020 Report on American Attitudes Toward the Korean Peninsula

4. Ex-N.Korean Diplomat Defected to S.Korea

5.  South Korean Activists Accuse China of Using Huawei to Hack Their Election

6. A letter to Kim Jong-un

7. Fitch Affirms Korea at 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

8. Defense Ministry chides PPP lawmakers for 'inappropriate' intelligence leaks

9. Ministry reaffirms its push for end-of-war declaration despite killing of fisheries official

10. Typhoid fever strikes inmates at labor camp in N. Pyongan Province

11. What to Expect From North Korea's Military Parade

12. Former U.S. Forces Korea CO: Pausing Exercises 'No Longer Relevant' to North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

13. Eroding the Regime's Information Monopoly: Cell Phones in North Korea

14. Pyongyang Gears Up for Major Workers' Party Anniversary Events

15. South Korea struggles to choose between US and China

16. N. Korean authorities step up efforts to stop smuggling along Chinese border

17. South Korea's request for submarine nuclear fuel from US denied: report

18. N. Korea's SLBM to complicate denuclearization efforts: ex-defense official

19. Nuclear-powered submarine development is pursued hastily

20. Yomiuri: S. Korea Sought to Arrange US Visit by Kim Jong-un's Sister before Election

21. Politbureau Speed Campaigns 8th Party Congress and Pregames Party's 75th

22. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

 

1. A Letter from the Son of the Man Killed, Burnt by North Korea on September 22, 2020: Restore My Father's Honor

East Asia Research · October 6, 2020

Thank you to Dr. Tara O for providing this translation of a very powerful letter to President Moon from the high school of the South korean civil servant who was murdered by the north Korean People's Army.  I truly hope this moves President Moon and I hope the disrespectful treatment of this man's memory is stopped. 

 

2.  Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North's highest military rank

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com by Shim Kyu-Seok

I am resending this because of the significance of the promotion Ri Pyong-chol.  Robert Collins provided this very important follow-up information that is very much worth sharing.

Ri Pyong-chol (alt. spelling Byong-chol) is currently the Director of the Korean Workers' Party Munitions Industry Department which is in charge of all weapons production. In this position, he oversees not only missile programs, but the nuclear program as well, and all other weapons programs. Other key personnel are certainly supervising components of those programs under Ri's Party oversight. Ri also attends with Kim Jong-un the observance of "new weapon systems."  Ri is also a member of the KWP Politburo, a vice-director of the KWP Central Committee, a member of the KWP Central Military Committee, a member of the DPRK State Affairs Commission, and a delegate of the 14th DPRK Supreme People's Assembly. In addition to being a former Commander of the North Korean Air Force, he is also rumored to be the father of Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju. 

He is without doubt the most significant advisor Kim Jong-un has in the face of crisis due to his high-level experience in both the military and the party. No one else compares even closely.

And I suppose they receive a marshal's baton.

Interesting fact here (I am assuming it is accurate but I defer to the north Korean leadership experts).  Note that one is the head of the missile program and the other is an artilleryman who is responsible for the short range missile program.  Will they be showing off some from their programs on October 10th?

 The two figures have surged through the ranks under Kim Jong-un's patronage, with their most recent promotion making them two of only seven people - besides the Kims themselves - t o become five-star generals in the country's history.

Even in North Korea's military bureaucracy, which is plagued by rank inflation, the rank of marshal has only been bestowed upon figures closest to the Kim family who were instrumental to their rise and consolidation of power.

 

3. 2020 Report on American Attitudes Toward the Korean Peninsula

keia.org

Some very interesting and useful information in this survey.  Some good signs for the alliance though there is always work to be done. Thanks to KEI for commissioning it.

The PDF of the 42 page report can be downloaded here: 

 

4. Ex-N.Korean Diplomat Defected to S.Korea

english.chosun.com

Did the lawmaker just put his life, and also importantly his daughter's,  in danger?  Recall his daughter was sent back to north Korea from Italy after Jo and his wife vanished.   I wonder what has happened to her?  It cannot be good.

 

5.  South Korean Activists Accuse China of Using Huawei to Hack Their Election

The Daily Beast · October 6, 2020

A colleague asked me if we should be concerned that Chinese may use Korean companies (e.g., LG) as a trojan horse to allow Huawei to back door access to the US?  I do not know the answer to that but we must be vigilant.  I just hope none of our election equipment comes from China.

 

6. A letter to Kim Jong-un

The Korea Times· by Choi Sung-jin · October 6, 2020

This is not in keeping with custom of the Trump-Kim letter writing.  But on a serious note it does provide an interesting assessment of the COVID and economic situation in the north.

 

7. Fitch Affirms Korea at 'AA-'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings

Good economic news for South Korea.

 

8. Defense Ministry chides PPP lawmakers for 'inappropriate' intelligence leaks

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shum Kyu-Seok

Perhaps they need more than a little chinding.

 

9. Ministry reaffirms its push for end-of-war declaration despite killing of fisheries official

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 7, 2020

Sigh...I guess the Moon administration has refused to re-examine its assumptions about the Kim  family regime.  This is going to come back to haunt the administration.

I really want to know what effect the ROK government thinks will be achieved by this action? I would like to hear from any advocates of the action as to what is desired to be achieved and what can actually be achieved.

Do we not understand the regime's political warfare strategies and how we play right into them?

 

10. Typhoid fever strikes inmates at labor camp in N. Pyongan Province

dailynk.com · October 6, 2020

A cover-up?

 

11.  What to Expect From North Korea's Military Parade

thediplomat.com · October 6, 2020

A former intelligence analyst doing what analysts to dest: providing an assessment.  Conclusion: "North Korea's upcoming celebrations will feature pageantry, elaborate displays of military prowess to impress and intimidate, and the potential for much more provocative and dangerous actions after the U.S. election."

 

12.  Former U.S. Forces Korea CO: Pausing Exercises 'No Longer Relevant' to North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

news.usni.org · by John Grady · October 6, 2020

I concur with General Brooks.  It is time to conclude the experiment of cancelling, suspending, and postponing major training exercises to try to influence north Korea behavior. The experiment has failed and has only resulted in declining readiness.  

Video at the link.

 

13. Eroding the Regime's Information Monopoly: Cell Phones in North Korea

nkhiddengulag.org · by Kathryn Wernke · October 6, 2020

Very important analysis from HRNK.  We should be asking why we are not exploiting the growth of smartphones in north Korea?  Anyone interested in educating the Korean people in north Korea about their human rights and conducting psychological operations (information and influence activities) to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and support maximum pressure and nurturing resistance for future action should be working to exploit all communications means in north Korea.

 

14. Pyongyang Gears Up for Major Workers' Party Anniversary Events

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · October 6, 2020

A bird's eye view of preparations.

 

15. South Korea struggles to choose between US and China

DW · by Deutsche Welle · October 6, 2020

My South Korean friends assure me there is no choice to be made, it was made in 1953.  But they are worried about the backlash of Chinese economic and political warfare that will be on a scale far surpassing the THAAD deployment debacle.  They rightly ask will the US come to its defense against Chinese political and economic warfare because it did not in the previous "conflict" which was not ended until Moon allegedly agreed to the "three no's" (according to China): no additional THAAD deployment, no integrated missile defense, and no trilateral alliance.   Chinese economic warfare forced the South to comply with Chinese political objectives (according to the Chinese).

 

16. N. Korean authorities step up efforts to stop smuggling along Chinese border

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · October 6, 2020

The safety valve for the function for the 400+ markets and the survival of the Korean people in the north continues to be shut off by the regime.  There will likely be long term consequences and the people.

 

17.  South Korea's request for submarine nuclear fuel from US denied: report

SCMP · by Park Chan-kyong · October 6, 2020

• A Donga Ilbo report said the request was made through Kim Hyun-chong, the deputy chief of the National Security Office, who visited Washington last month
• But the US says it has made it clear it will not transfer fuel for nuclear-powered submarines to any country, allies or not

 

18. N. Korea's SLBM to complicate denuclearization efforts: ex-defense official

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 7, 2020

Because this is one more indication that the north has no intention of denuclearizing the north.

 

19. Nuclear-powered submarine development is pursued hastily

donga.com

Frankly, I think it is wasteful for South Korea to build a nuclear powered submarine.  Do not build major weapons systems based on emotion.

 

20. Yomiuri: S. Korea Sought to Arrange US Visit by Kim Jong-un's Sister before Election

world.kbs.co.kr

Sensational reporting by the Korean press of a Japanese press story.  I would take this with a big grain of salt.  I cannot imagine the US attempting to do this.  What effect do they think would be achieved by this? Restart "stalled" nuclear talks? Really?  Yes we have allowed a sanctioned official into the US and even into the White House (Kim Yong-chol) but I cannot imagine us wanting to bring the sanctioned Kim Yo-jong into the US.

 

21. Politburu Speed Campaigns 8th Party Congress and Pregames Party's 75th

nkleadershipwatch.org

Again, I am including Robert Collins' comments about Ri's promotion.  He is that important:

“Ri Pyong-chol (alt. spelling Byong-chol) is currently the Director of the Korean Workers' Party Munitions Industry Department which is in charge of all weapons production. In this position, he oversees not only missile programs, but the nuclear program as well, and all other weapons programs. Other key personnel are certainly supervising components of those programs under Ri's Party oversight. Ri also attends with Kim Jong-un the observance of "new weapon systems."  Ri is also a member of the KWP Politburo, a vice-director of the KWP Central Committee, a member of the KWP Central Military Committee, a member of the DPRK State Affairs Commission, and a delegate of the 14th DPRK Supreme People's Assembly. In addition to being a former Commander of the North Korean Air Force, he is also rumored to be the father of Kim Jong-un's wife, Ri Sol-ju.” 

 

22. US missed 'golden opportunity' by walking out of Hanoi summit with N. Korea: Hecker

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · October 7, 2020

I am sorry Dr. Hecker but Kim Jong-un has missed every opportunity due to his inability to allow substantive negotiations to take place in good faith.

--------

 

"It was indicative of the U.S. Army's basic misunderstanding of what Special Forces really are, that the official lineage of Special Forces is traced back to the 1st Special Service Force.  The OSS was a much more legitimate ancestor of today's Green Berets, but the problem with the U.S. Army recognition of that fact is a syndrome that has wider implications.  OSS was a hybrid with strong political and intelligence flavors.

- LTG (USA-RET) William P. Yarborough

Southern Pines, NC

December 1982

 

"An opinion can be argued with; a conviction best shot." 

- T.E. Lawrence

 

"There is an immutable law of the SOF bureaucracy which states that an operation becomes more feasible the farther aware one is from the physical risks involved in that operation."

 - CPT William H. Burgess III, April  1986

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Worth Preserving: U.S. Military Posture in Germany

2. FDD | Plan to Reposition U.S. Forces in Europe Needs More Work

3. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Charts Japan’s Next Course

4. Why is the United States losing the information war?

5.  The World That War Has Made

6.  US troop withdrawal from Germany still worries Congress and Baltic allies

7. ISIS terrorists the 'Beatles' likely to be brought to U.S. this month

8. Longer Navy Deployments, Fewer Port Calls To Manage COVID

9. Flawed Assumptions and the Need for a Radical Shift in the Next National Security Strategy

10. Top China Critic Becomes Its Defender

11. US human rights bill risks pushing Duterte closer to China

12. It’s Time for the Pentagon to Take Data Principles More Seriously

13. The great uncoupling: one supply chain for China, one for everywhere else

14. New US drone tactics in the Pacific put China on alert

15. Duterte suspected extrajudicial killings in drug crackdown

16. 'Asian NATO' faces hurdles as Pompeo meets with 'Quad' allies on countering China

17. U.S. sees threat to Western Hemisphere security in Chinese fishing push

18. The Defense Department Just Published a Summary of the National Defense Strategy’s Irregular Warfare Annex. Here’s Why It’s so Significant.

19. What Happens When China Leads the World

20. Quad is built on wobbly foundations

21. Some people are more likely to believe conspiracy theories. Here's how to know if you're one of them.

22. Fascism re-examined

23. Green Beret Leads Crisis Innovation for Team Rubicon

24. Blazing a trail: How a Black Navy SEAL boosted his success through online learning

 

1. Worth Preserving: U.S. Military Posture in Germany

defenseone.com · by Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ben Hodges and Bradley Bowan · October 5, 2020

How do we posture our forces to provide the best possible support to the NDS and NSS given resource and political constraints?  Where do we accept risk?  How much risk are we willing to accept?

 

2. FDD | Plan to Reposition U.S. Forces in Europe Needs More Work

fdd.org · by Maj Scott D. Adamson · October 5, 2020

A bold statement from a Major sending the plan back to the Pentagon for more work! (note attempt at humor  but I agree with him).

 

3. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Charts Japan’s Next Course

The National Interest · by Patrick M. Cronin · October 4, 2020

And will Japan be able to contribute to that counterweight?

 

4. Why is the United States losing the information war?

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · October 5, 2020

Because we are afraid of information and influence.  We are afraid to engage in political warfare.

As I have written and said many times:  Nowhere is this more evident than in what some PSYOP officers lamented to me when I was last at Fort Leavenworth.  It is easier to get permission to put a hellfire missile on the forehead of a terrorist than it is to get permission to put an idea between his ears.  U.S. adversaries have no qualms about maximizing their ability to operate in the human and information domains.   For our adversaries politics is war by other means.  Our adversaries "lead with influence."  We do not.

 

6. US troop withdrawal from Germany still worries Congress and Baltic allies

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · October 5, 2020

You think they are worried? Wait until we shift focus to removing troops from Korea.

 

7. ISIS terrorists the 'Beatles' likely to be brought to U.S. this month

NBC News · by Anna SchecterAnna Schecter · October 6, 2020

 

8. Longer Navy Deployments, Fewer Port Calls To Manage COVID

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

I imagine there will be a long term impact on our sailors and the recruitment of future sailors as well as the maintenance of ships and weapons systems.

 

9. Flawed Assumptions and the Need for a Radical Shift in the Next National Security Strategy

thestrategybridge.org · by Michael N. Gonzales · October 6, 2020

Strategy is all about the assumptions (and risk and priorities and ends, ways, and means)

But this is quite a critical conclusion of the NSS:  The major assumptions in the 2017 National Security Strategy lead back to one main and flawed idea: that the U.S. can buy power and that, once bought, its value is permanent. Unfortunately, this is not true. Rather, the U.S. must continuously cultivate and responsibly maintain its power. This requires revamping the National Security Strategy and adjusting to today’s threats. To do so, America must understand that militant engagement with the world does more to increase insecurity. The next National Security Strategy must provide guidance on how to maintain peace and prosperity and, if necessary, win the wars of tomorrow. A more effective National Security Strategy reflects long-term plans to maximize the efficiency of our defense dollars, invests in our allies and partners to maintain influence overseas, and confronts our adversaries on our terms, not theirs.

 

10. Top China Critic Becomes Its Defender

The New York Times · by Ana Swanson · October 6, 2020

An interesting analysis and perspective: "Robert E. Lighthizer, President Trump’s trade negotiator, has cautioned against actions that could anger Beijing in an attempt to preserve the U.S.-China trade deal."

 

11. US human rights bill risks pushing Duterte closer to China

asia.nikkei.com · October 4, 2020

For the long term we need to focus on human rights (and because it is the right thing to do.  We cannot sacrifice them for short term conditions. Duterte will not be president indefinitely.

 

12. It’s Time for the Pentagon to Take Data Principles More Seriously

warontherocks.com · by Robert Work and Tara Murphy Dougherty · October 6, 2020

As I have heard, whoever controls the data, wins.

 

13. The great uncoupling: one supply chain for China, one for everywhere else

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille · October 6, 2020

Can uncoupling or decoupling be done?  

 

14. New US drone tactics in the Pacific put China on alert

Business Insider · by Minnie Chan

 

15. Duterte suspected extrajudicial killings in drug crackdown

The Washington Post · by Jim Gomez · October 6, 2020

And there are those who think we should overlook this?  We have long known this.  Extrajudicial killings were taking place when he was the mayor of Davao City.

 

16. 'Asian NATO' faces hurdles as Pompeo meets with 'Quad' allies on countering China

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

It will be very interesting to see how the Quad and Quad Plus plays out.

 

17. U.S. sees threat to Western Hemisphere security in Chinese fishing push

washingtontimes.com · by Mike Glenn

Revive the Monroe Doctrine (sarcasm). But China will counter with their claim of their own form of "Monroe Doctrine in Asia."

 

18. The Defense Department Just Published a Summary of the National Defense Strategy’s Irregular Warfare Annex. Here’s Why It’s so Significant.

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin Bilms · October 2, 2020

I would say that this is what the classified summary of the  IW Annex meant to say.  This should be an appendix to the annex that would say this is what we meant when we wrote the annex.  This is a very

 

19. What Happens When China Leads the World

The Atlantic · by Michael Schuman · October 5, 2020

It won't be pretty.

 

20. Quad is built on wobbly foundations

asiatimes.com · by Gregory Clark · October 5, 2020

It is difficult to develop a security architecture if there is not a common understanding of an agreement about the potential threats. 

 

21. Some people are more likely to believe conspiracy theories. Here's how to know if you're one of them.

Mashable · by Rebecca Ruiz · October 3, 2020

Time for all of use to conduct some self-reflection.

 

22. Fascism re-examined

jns.org · Juliana Geran Pilon

 

23. Green Beret Leads Crisis Innovation for Team Rubicon

coffeeordie.com · by Jessica Manfre · October 4, 2020

Another great American who continues to serve.

 

24. Blazing a trail: How a Black Navy SEAL boosted his success through online learning

militarytimes.com · by Ty Smith · October 5, 2020

And another great American who leads and shows the way.

 

-------------------------

 

"The only thing new in the world today is the history you don't know."

- Harry Truman

 

"I approve of this request [for Special Forces assignment] only because I want to support my officer's career objectives, no matter how ill-advised they may be. However, I believe that the Army leadership must stop the erosion of  of its top junior officer talent in Special Forces Branch which is a t best a current fad, and in the long term, a pitiful sideshow from the  mainstream Army."

XXXXXXXXX

Lieutenant Colonel, Armor

Commanding

26 April 1988

 

"When I took a decision, or adopted an alternative, it was after studying every relevant - and many an irrelevant - factor. Geography, tribal structure, religion, social customs, language, appetites, standards - all  were at my finger-ends. The enemy I knew almost like my own side.  I risked myself among them a hundred times, to learn."

T.E. Lawrence

Letter to Sir basil Liddell Hart

26 June 1933

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. USFK Chief Complains About Lack of Combined Training

2. Son of Official Murdered by N.Korea Rages at President

3. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Days Before October 10 Celebration

4. Would killing of S. Korean civilian remain unresolved?

5. Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North's highest military rank

6. Free Cash for All Boosts Rising South Korea Star to Top of Polls

7. Family calls for UN probe into North Korea's killing of South Korean official

8. USFK has not used 68 bln won of Korea's defense contributions since 2014: data

9. Chinese FM Cancels Korea Visit

10. N. Korea touts economic progress as party anniversary nears

11. North Korea Continues Uranium Enrichment

12. FDD | Did China help rig the South Korean election?

13. China Leads UN Call For US To End 'Coercive' Sanctions

14. N.K. leader oversees politburo meeting to launch 80-day campaign for economic development

15. South Korean Firms Reluctant to Bring Production Back From China - Caixin Global

16. N. Korea likely to be last to reopen borders due to COVID-19: experts

 

1. USFK Chief Complains About Lack of Combined Training

english.chosun.com· October 6, 2020

This is not a "complaint."  This is a realistic assessment by a military commander who leads a combined military force.  

But it is not the USFK Chief who is making this assessment.  It is the Commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command which is co-equally "owned" by the ROK and US.  If the ROKG wants to conduct OPCON transition and have a change of command in which a ROK general Officer will take command of the ROK/US CFC it had better start focusing on the readiness of the command and the combined forces.  The ROK government cannot afford to be a spotlight Ranger and just have the trappings surrounding OPCON transition and (incorrectly and erroneously) claim a return of sovereignty. (which is complete BS) without taking full and complete responsibility for the combined trained and combined readiness of the command and all apportioned forces to the command.

Note that this is in part a function of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) and the loss of live fire training areas for air and ground operations in the vicinity of the DMZ.  The CMA has not resulted in any reciprocal tension reduction or confidence building measures from the north.  It has only resulted in a decline of combined readiness.

2. Son of Official Murdered by N.Korea Rages at President

english.chosun.com· October 6, 2020

When I get a translation of the letter I will forward it. I wonder about the effect this will have on the Korean public and will it continue to an understanding of how poorly the government has handled the situation for the murder of a civil servant doing his job for the nation.

 

3. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Days Before October 10 Celebration

CSIS · by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Victor Cha · October 4, 2020

The key finding of the key findings: "With the upcoming Korean Workers' Party Foundation Day celebration on October 10, a SLBM test should not be ruled out as a possibility for Kim Jong-un's self-proclaimed "October surprise." Such a test would be consistent with Beyond Parallel historical data that shows heightened provocations around U.S. presidential election years."  I just want to know how they are going to get this Sinpo class submarine to march in the October 10th parade in Pyongyang (note sarcasm).

 

4. Would killing of S. Korean civilian remain unresolved?

donga.com· October 6, 2020

The question is will the killing result in a change of policy and strategy by the ROKG and a recognition that the Moon administration's fundamental assumption about the Kim family regime has been erroneous?

Based on this conclusion I fear it will not: "It remains unknown what discussions are taking place under the table between the two Koreas. However, it is doubtful that South Korea will be able to insist on a joint investigation given its carefulness to not provoke the North with search operation, which deserves all-out efforts. The Ministry of Unification's Monday message to North Korea simply said it wishes for the North's quick response. Given the circumstances, it seems possible that the recent killing of the South Korean civilian may become another permanently unresolved incident between the Two Koreas."

 

5. Kim Jong-un promotes pair of advisers to North's highest military rank

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Shim Kyu-Seok

And I suppose they receive a marshal's baton.

Interesting fact here (I am assuming it is accurate but I defer to the north Korean leadership experts).  Note that one is the head of the missile program and the other is an artilleryman who is responsible for the short range missile program.  Will they be showing off some from their programs on October 10th?

 

6. Free Cash for All Boosts Rising South Korea Star to Top of Polls

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · October 5, 2020

Here is the buried lede.  The opposition conservative party is also embracing the universal basic income.

Still, the call for a universal income isn't limited to Lee or other progressives in Moon's camp. The idea is also gaining support in the top opposition conservative group.The newly named People Power Party recently introduced a pledge to seek a basic income. Its interim party leader Kim Chong-in is trying to build support by embracing some of the popular economic policies of the left with a tough stand on security that has been a bedrock position of the right.

I am reminded of these two quotes about people voting themselves free money:

 

"When the people find that they can vote themselves money, that will herald the end of the republic."

- Benjamin Franklin

 

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government.
A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship"
- Alexander Tytler 1787

 

Korean people beware. 

 

7. Family calls for UN probe into North Korea's killing of South Korean official

The Korea Times · October 6, 2020

I doubt the UN will act on this. 

Excerpts:

“The 18-year-old son, who is living with his mother and an eight-year-old sister, said his father had no reason to defect to the North and the government failed to protect one of its citizens.”

"I'd like to ask why my father had to go that far, what efforts the state was making to save my father and why it could not save him," he wrote. "He was a public servant of the Republic of Korea and a citizen who should be protected. He suffered in the cold waters for a long time and was killed and burned ... I want to ask who is responsible for this situation where we can't even find his body, and what the state was doing when my father was killed brutally."

“Regarding the letter, President Moon said he sympathizes with the teenager who lost his father and would like to send a message of comfort, according to presidential spokesman Kang Min-seok.”

"The President said we need to wait for the results of the investigation and search operations by the Coast Guard," Kang said. "President Moon is also planning to write back to him."

“Family calls for UN probe into North Korea's killing of South Korean official.”

 

8. USFK has not used 68 bln won of Korea's defense contributions since 2014: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · October 5, 2020

I recall this from the past. This is not something new and it is one of the issues that have long upset Koreans -the perceived lack of accountability and lack of a full accounting of Korean funds provided to the US.   But this surely undercuts US demands in negotiations.  Of course this money was provide for support of US forces in Korea.  What our demands for funding seem to be is simply a fee for service and a transfer of Korean funds to the US treasury for which I do not think there is a precedent and I believe no legal method in the ROK to be able to do so.

 

9. Chinese FM Cancels Korea Visit

english.chosun.com

Hmm.. I wonder if the Chinese FM and US SECSTATE have coordinated their cancelations (note sarcasm). 

Seriously is this a message signalling displeasure with the possibility that the ROK could join the Quad Plus?

Excerpts:

“Instead, China is sending warnings from afar. Xin Qiang of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University said in an op-ed for the state-run Global Times, "[Korea's] decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense in 2016 triggered strong resistance from China. Seoul would be afraid that its participation in Quad will irritate China again."

“He was referring to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an informal anti-Chinese alliance between the U.S., Japan, Australia and India, which the U.S. is trying to expand to include Korea, Vietnam and New Zealand.”

 

10. N. Korea touts economic progress as party anniversary nears

m.koreaherald.com · by Choi Si Young · October 5, 2020

Shameless lying propaganda.  It is amazing to think a leader could get away with such lies.  But when you have a Propaganda and Agitation Department working 24/7 to perpetuate lies to enhance the young marshal's reputation I guess you can say and do what you want.

 

11. North Korea Continues Uranium Enrichment

armscontrol.org · by Julie Masterson

Again, this should not be a surprise to anyone.

 

12. FDD | Did China help rig the South Korean election?

fdd.org · by Cleo Paskal Non-Resident Senior Fellow · October 4, 2020

Was China using Korea as a testing ground? 

Here is a link to Grant Newsham's report. 

 

13. China Leads UN Call for US To End 'Coercive' Sanctions

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

Of course we could lift sanctions if these countries conducted themselves as responsible members of the international community and did not violate the norms of the community of nations.  Simply change your behavior and you can have sanctions lifted.

But that is not something we can expect from these countries:

 

14. N.K. leader oversees politburo meeting to launch 80-day campaign for economic development

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · October 6, 2020

Another speed march at "Chollima speed."

 

15. South Korean Firms Reluctant to Bring Production Back From China

caixinglobal.com· October 6, 2020

It is hard to decouple.  But what if free nations around the world did try to decouple?

 

16. N. Korea likely to be last to reopen borders due to COVID-19: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 6, 2020

No surprise here.  This is likely for two reasons.  The obvious one is the regime is deathly afraid of a coronavirus outbreak. The second one is the regime is exploiting the coronavirus in order to implement the harsh and draconian population and resources control measures that it wants to be able to oppress the Kor4ean people in the north so that the regime can remain in power.

 

------------------------

 

The only thing new in the world today is the history you don't know." 

- Harry Truman

 

"I approve of this request [for Special Forces assignment] only because I want to support my officer's career objectives, no matter how ill-advised they may be. However, I believe that the Army leadership must stop the erosion of  of its top junior officer talent in Special Forces Branch which is a t best a current fad, and in the long term, a pitiful sideshow from the  mainstream Army."

XXXXXXXXX

Lieutenant Colonel, Armor

Commanding

26 April 1988

 

"When I took a decision, or adopted an alternative, it was after studying every relevant - and many an irrelevant - factor. Geography, tribal structure, religion, social customs, language, appetites, standards - all  were at my finger-ends. The enemy I knew almost like my own side.  I risked myself among them a hundred times, to learn." 

T.E. Lawrence

Letter to Sir basil Liddell Hart

26 June 1933

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

A note on consuming information and the news…

1.  The U.N. turns 75, and the Chinese Communist Party gaslights the world

2. US preps for ‘irregular warfare’ with China, Russia

3. How the US-Sino trade war is impacting global companies

4. Political aides investigate VOA White House reporter for anti-Trump bias

5. For veterans, bonds forged in battle are tested by 2020’s rancor

6. High-end warfare in the Indo-Pacific theater will require distributed sensing

7. Russians ‘have committed’ to not interfering in elections, Trump aide insists

8. The incapacitation of a President and the twenty-fifth amendment: a reader’s guide

9. H.R. McMaster and the fight to defend the free world

10. Is the United States in the midst of an insurgency?

11. Democracy under lockdown: the impact of COVID-19 on the global struggle for freedom

12. Ban on Chinese apps has a currency war angle

13. Towards an epistemology of grand strategy

14. Why leaders need to learn the skill of writing

 

A note on consuming information and the news…

Ad Fontes Media

I hope people will find this chart useful. I provide some additional information on my methodology and sources below.

H/T Chris Taylor. This seems pretty accurate to me. 

The website above studies media bias and produces the “Media Bias Chart.” Here is a 4-minute video from the founder, Vanessa Otero, who explains the origins of the chart. The video is very much worth the time.

Concerning my personal info/news consumption habits…

I have subscriptions to The Economist, Bloomberg, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Washington Times, and The Daily Beast. Note: not on the list are Foreign Affairs and Foreign Policy, to which I also subscribe. Also, not on the list are The National Interest and The National Review.

I regularly watch, read, and listen to ABC (I still like the 30 minute nightly broadcast, which I have been watching since I was a kid as that is what we watched growing up), NPR (I am a contributing member of WAMU and have listened to NPR since All Things Considered began in the 1970s when I was in college), CNN, CBS (primarily for 60 Minutes) Fox, The Hill, VOX, Guardian, Financial Times, and Axios as well as The Washington Examiner, Epoch Times (anti-China) and the NY Post.

I do read the fringe elements when they pop up in the news feeds (e.g. American Thinker, Slate, PJ Media, Salon, etc.).

And not covered on this are all the Korea news sites I use (e.g. Yonhap [semi-official news], Chosun Ilbo, Joongang Ilbo, Korea Times, Korea Herald, Asia Times, The Diplomat, East Asia Research Center, and The Daily NK. And, of course, the two most important sources are the Korean services of Voice of America and Radio Free Asia.

Also not included on the above are all the think tanks (my own, FDD, as well as CSIS, CNAS, Brookings, AEI, Carnegie, Heritage, and ICKS & ICAS [I belong to both of these as well]). Then there are all the web sites on national security. Grounded Curiosity from Australia provides the best resource for national security and military related news sources. Here is the link to an excellent resource on the best Professional MIlitary Education Websites around the world.

I am a practitioner of what Thomas Friedman called "information arbitrage" in his book, The Lexus and the Olive Tree. Here is one summary description.

 

1. The U.N. Turns 75, and the Chinese Communist Party Gaslights the World

National Review · Jimmy Quinn · October 4, 2020

We should understand China's strategy and how it seeks to undermine international institutions and remake them to support its interests. The dilemma for us is whether we want to cede influence and let China have its way with these organizations or whether we want to protect these institutions and ensure they function for the global good. Of course, all so-called anti-globalists simply say good riddance.

 

2. US preps for ‘irregular warfare’ with China, Russia

Asia Times · Dave Makichuk · October 4, 2020

I am pleased with the new unclassified summary of the unclassified irregular warfare annex, but the plane on which we need to compete with Russia and China is that of political warfare.

 

3. How the US-Sino trade war is impacting global companies

Yahoo! Finance · Suban Abdulla · October 4, 2020

 

4. Political aides investigate VOA White House reporter for anti-Trump bias

NPR · David Folkenflik · October 4, 2020

You either support the freedom of the press one hundred percent or you do not (which means you do not support and defend the Constitution of the United States).  And you should especially support the freedom of the press for Voice of America. Steve Herman is a good man and a good journalist. These so-called political aides? Not so much. These attacks on the press, and especially on VOA, are getting tiresome and, of course, they are a danger to our Republic.

 

5. For veterans, bonds forged in battle are tested by 2020's rancor

New York Times · Dave Philipps · October 4, 2020

I see this every day on social media, including within the various veteran's groups. There is only one criterion for veterans (and all citizens of course): do you support and defend the Constitution? If so, you must be able to tolerate political differences and political conflict, because our Constitution is set up to take it into account. If you fail to tolerate those differences, you are not living up to the ideals of the Constitution and the political philosophy of the United States as designed by our Founding Fathers and outlined in the Federalist Papers.

 

6. High-end warfare in the Indo-Pacific theater will require distributed sensing

Real Clear Defense · Dan Gouré · October 3, 2020

Necessary, yes. But, if we effectively compete in the political warfare realm, we can deter high-end warfare. Ceding the political warfare space to China (and Russia, Iran, and North Korea) makes us more vulnerable.

 

7. Russians 'have committed' to not interfering in elections, Trump aide insists

New York Times · David E. Sanger · October 4, 2020

Ceding the political warfare space?

 

8. The incapacitation of a President and the twenty-fifth amendment: a reader's guide

Just Security · Harold Hongju Koh, et al. · October 4, 2020

This is a reprint and an academic treatment of the issue without a discussion of current events.

Before the 25th should be invoked, a President can make the decision to temporarily transfer power while he or she is being treated. The President can use his or her own judgment to determine that authority should be passed temporarily to the Vice President to ensure continuity of and confidence in our government as well as the national security of the US. To me, this is what leadership is all about, making these kinds of tough decisions and doing the right thing because it is the right thing to do.

 

9. H.R. McMaster and the fight to defend the free world

FDD · Clifford D. May · October 2, 2020

An excellent podcast episode.

 

10. Is the United States in the midst of an insurgency?

American Thinker · Matt Rowe · October 4, 2020

What is never addressed in these types of essays is that, when an "insurgency" is the latent or incipient phase, the best way to counter it is through effective politics, which include appropriate political accommodation. What political accommodations is the government making to solve political grievances, thereby employing the most effective tool to undermine the legitimacy of the "insurgent" leadership? Instead, we turn political opposition into enemies and, thus, make it a zero sum game. This is shown when the government's sole focus becomes law and order, which simply breaths energy into the insurgency.  It is necessary to conduct appropriate security and law enforces operations. But without a political component, security and law enforcement operations alone will not solve the problem.

I do not believe Black Lives Matters and ANTIFA are insurgencies. Yes, there are some charismatic leaders who may be employing insurgent techniques and they may have the desire to create chaos. But I do not believe either are coherent organizations (yet). If effective and proper political action is taken to alleviate real grievances, the air will be sucked out of these movements. Vilifying those who are protesting and only focusing on law and order only makes things worse.

I have a key excerpt from a point paper on insurgency below, which I wrote for my fellow CGSC (and later SAMS) students in 1995 since there was little-to-no focus on insurgency in the 1990s.

5. Some additional notes on insurgency for consideration.

                        a.  Consider that there are generally four "elements" that may be involved in the insurgency:

(1) The insurgent

(2) The population

(3) The counter-insurgent (the existing government or occupying power)

(4) The peace enforcer or peacekeeper (external nation or forces)

b.  Key to understanding insurgency is that it is a political problem first and foremost which has implications for the military.  However, an insurgency will ultimately be successful if the underlying political and socio-economic causes are not addressed,

                        c.  The insurgent, the counter-insurgent, and the peacekeeper/enforcer have only two fundamental tools to work with to accomplish their goals:

(1) The enhancement of popular perceptions of legitimacy.

(2) The credible capability to coerce

                        d.  Success or failure is determined by each side’s understanding, application, and the mixture of these tools (which is determined by the political leadership NOT the military leadership)

e.  Remember that no armed political disturbances begin without significant lead times.

f.  When is the US military committed to counterinsurgency?  Usually during the guerilla warfare or, at worst, the war of movement phase.  Guess what?  The war is already lost especially if a thorough Phase I has been conducted.  It is generally too late for the established government to initiate the political reforms necessary to defeat the insurgency.  Therefore, the US military ends up conducting a military operation to counter a political problem which just adds strength to the perceived legitimacy of the insurgency.  The signs of a latent insurgency are too often overlooked and unrecognized.

g.  Some fundamental considerations needed for the mindset of dealing with insurgencies.

(1) Encourage improvisation by subordinates (can lead to valuable tactics and techniques; i.e., SF CIDG program in Vietnam or the USMC Combined or Civic Action Platoons (CAP in Vietnam).

(2) Orient on the "human terrain".  Think in terms of cultural historical, and psychological terms.

(3) The killing (military operation) is clearly subordinate to the psychological and political.

(4) Replace "shoot, move, and communicate” with "presence, patience, and persistence."  Someday, if you are successful, the mission will disappear, like a river flowing into a swamp.

 

11. Democracy under lockdown: the impact of COVID-19 on the global struggle for freedom

 

Freedom House · Sara Repucci & Amy Slipowitz · October 4, 2020

 

12. Ban on Chinese apps has a currency war angle

Sunday Guardian Live · James Lee · October 3, 2020

 

13. Towards an epistemology of grand strategy

Real Clear Defense · Maurizio Recordati · October 5, 2020

Can the US conduct grand strategy? I think we can and must. I think this article presents an interesting discussion of the stereotype and the ideal type.

 

14. Why leaders need to learn the skill of writing

From the Green Notebook · Joe Byerly · October 3, 2020

I am reminded of Truman's quote: "not all readers are leaders, but all leaders are readers." Not all writers are leaders, but all leaders are writers (or, at least, have good writing skills).

 

"The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who have not viewed the world."

- Alexander von Humboldt

"If you define leadership as having a vision for an organization, and the ability to attract, motivate, and guide followers to fulfill that vision, you have Bill Donovan in spades."

- Fisher Howe, special assistant to Gen. William Donovan

“... insurgency and counterinsurgency... have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”

--William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat” (2006)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Pompeo asks for S. Korea's understanding over postponed trip to Seoul

2. Trump's virus infection - Pompeo cancels visit to South Korea

3. Defense minister, US ambassador vow to strengthen alliance

4. N.K. paper lauds leader Kim's care for people ahead of party founding anniv.

5. N. Korea ignores demands for joint investigation of official's death

6. Saying sorry goes a long way

7. North Korea's cyber warfare capabilities are just getting started

8. How fast can you build 1,000 houses in North Korea?

9. University students seen practicing for mass parade in Hyesan

10. South Korea minimized the damage from Covid-19. North Korea maximized it.

11. 36 service members at Army unit test positive for new coronavirus (South Korea)

12. N. Korean paper carries article on Iran's new weapons

13. How much North Korean aggression is South Korea willing to tolerate?

14. Moon vows S. Korea to play role in global fight against infectious diseases

15. Japan to restart business travel with Korea: Nikkei

16. Suga refuses to visit Korea until asset seizure order lifted

17. Reports about North Korea shooting a South Korean official may have exposed intelligence gathering techniques

18. Stop-and-frisk and bus walls remind us of dictatorship

 

1. Pompeo asks for S. Korea's understanding over postponed trip to Seoul

Yonhap News Agency · [email protected] · October 5, 2020

Intellectually and professionally South Korea understands. Emotionally not so much. Some will interpret this as a snub especially because he is still going to Japan.

 

2. Trump's virus infection - Pompeo cancels visit to South Korea

Korea Times · Editorial · October 4, 2020

South Korea is concerned. Excellent recommendation here.

 

3. Defense minister, US ambassador vow to strengthen alliance

Korea Herald · Yonhap · October 5, 2020

Necessary now more than ever.

 

4. N.K. paper lauds leader Kim's care for people ahead of party founding anniv.

Yonhap News Agency · [email protected] · October 5, 2020

The great benevolent one. Propaganda is spinning up in preparation for October 10th. But I just can't figure out the message the propagandists are trying to send with the photo below. Why the single file march? Are they marching through a former minefield and they have to stick to the cleared path?

 

5. N. Korea ignores demands for joint investigation of official's death

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Eun-Joong · October 5, 2020

It is right for South Korea to press for this sort of thing, but no one should be under any illusion the North would agree to a joint investigation. First, the regime is in the wrong and any investigation would show it. Second, it would reveal capabilities, vulnerabilities, and weaknesses of the military and regime.  Third, this investigation would expose the regime as the human rights abuser that it is. And finally, because they were in the wrong, it would be an unbearable embarrassment for the regime. So, the regime has many incentives to not participate in a joint investigation.

 

6. Saying sorry goes a long way

Business Day · Christian Science Monitor · October 4, 2020

I recall from a famous novel and film that "love means never having to say you are sorry." But, I am sorry, Christian Science Monitor: North Korea did not say it is sorry. It was a non-apology apology. Perhaps that means it really loves the South, but I think not.

 

7. North Korea's cyber warfare capabilities are just getting started

National Interest · Michael Raska · October 4, 2020

They have been getting started for longer than most people think: since the 1990s, as the author notes.  The "all-purpose sword" is more practical than its "treasured sword" and it provides many capabilities and benefits for the regime. We ignore it at our peril.

 

8. How fast can you build 1,000 houses in North Korea?

North Korea Economy Watch · Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · October 4, 2020

Fast, good, cheap. You can only pick two. North Korea chose fast and cheap, as it always does. Of course, another option is this is just propaganda and they have not completed 88% of the houses.

 

9. University students seen practicing for mass parade in Hyesan

Daily NK · Jeong Tae Joo · October 5, 2020

This is the priority for the regime's best and brightest (though the real best and the brightest are the students at a couple of universities in Pyongyang).

 

10. South Korea minimized the damage from Covid-19. North Korea maximized it.

CSIS · Sue Mi Terry · October 5, 2020

 

11. 36 service members at Army unit test positive for new coronavirus (South Korea)

Yonhap News Agency · [email protected] · October 5, 2020

 

12. N. Korean paper carries article on Iran's new weapons

Yonhap News Agency · [email protected] · October 5, 2020

I will leave this to North Korea proliferation experts like Dr. Bruce Becthol to assess. Does this telegraph a new strategic weapon on October 10th? I am skeptical.

 

13. How much North Korean aggression is South Korea willing to tolerate?

Peninsula Report · Gabriela Bernal · September 29, 2020

A great question from the author. When is enough, enough? As I have mentioned many times, the Moon administration needs to re-examine its strategic assumptions, the most important being the assumption that Kim Jong-Un shares Moon's vision for peace, prosperity, and co-existence on the Korean peninsula.  Kim has not given up his objective to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. The Moon administration needs to recognize this and adjust its policies and strategy accordingly.

 

14. Moon vows S. Korea to play role in global fight against infectious diseases

Korea Herald · Yonhap · October 5, 2020

 

15. Japan to restart business travel with Korea: Nikkei

Korea Times · October 5, 2020

Some good news.

 

16. Suga refuses to visit Korea until asset seizure order lifted

Chosun Ilbo · Lee Ha-Won · October 5, 2020

And some not so good news. But it should not be unexpected.

 

17. Reports about North Korea shooting a South Korean official may have exposed intelligence gathering techniques

CNN · Yoonjung Seo & James Griffiths · October 5, 2020

 

18. Stop-and-frisk and bus walls remind us of dictatorship

Dong-A Ilbo · Editions · October 5, 2020

The Moon administration has a civil liberties problem.

 

"The most dangerous worldview is the worldview of those who have not viewed the world."

- Alexander von Humboldt

"If you define leadership as having a vision for an organization, and the ability to attract, motivate, and guide followers to fulfill that vision, you have Bill Donovan in spades."

- Fisher Howe, special assistant to Gen. William Donovan

“... insurgency and counterinsurgency... have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”

--William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat” (2006)