Small Wars Journal

El Centro

From Terrorist Organizations to Cocaine Groups in Colombia: Is ELN the Next?

Tue, 08/15/2023 - 7:55pm
It has been a trend in Latin America to see how terrorist groups have evolved into criminal groups involved in the cocaine trade. Revolutionary and leftist organizations have generated revenue from the cocaine trade when they have pursued ideological goals. Moreover, they ended up in the cocaine trade when they were defeated by the military or negotiated with the local governments. The groups in Colombia have followed suit. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia or FARC) were involved in the cocaine trade long years and became one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine in the region. After the FARC ended due to negotiations, the group has created dissident groups that has followed the FARC’s ideology or become involved in the cocaine trade. This article analyzes revolutionary and paramilitary groups and how they evolve into cocaine groups. After examining the FARC’s negotiations with the government, it concentrates on the FARC dissident groups and discusses the likely results of successful talks with the ELN.

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The Sunset of FARC and the Execution of a Comprehensive Counterinsurgency Program

Mon, 07/31/2023 - 10:07pm
Las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia or FARC have their origin in a period of continuous and widespread political, social, and economic unrest that is commonly known as “La Violencia” in contemporary Colombian History. Identifying the underlying causes behind this important historical period is crucial to our understanding of the motivation behind the rise of the longest-lived insurgency in the western hemisphere.

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Crime and COVID-19 in Mexico: Some Counterintuitive Results

Sun, 07/23/2023 - 7:54pm
This study focuses on the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and criminal activity in Mexico. It looks at data over twenty-four months prior to and during the public health crisis. The study examines both national-level and state-by-state COVID-19 infection rates data and their relationship to four types of crime—two closely related to organized crime in the general literature, homicide and vehicle theft, and two more conventional criminal activities, muggings and domestic violence. Regarding time, it examines four different time periods—two six-month periods before and two six-month periods during the pandemic to enable comparisons by type of crime at the national level, at the individual state level, and over time. The COVID-19 infection rate appears to have had practically no influence on any of the four types of criminal activity examined in the study. Even so, different crimes did respond differently over time. At the national level, homicide rates stayed at the same levels throughout. Domestic violence rates were lower in the first period but increased in the second period analyzed. Muggings and vehicle, however, theft rates were down for both periods of analysis. The results of the study at the subnational or state level, however, show much more variation, with some states showing higher or lower level of crime depending on the type of crime, the individual state, and the period. The general conclusion is that COVID-19 seems to have had little impact on the country’s criminal landscape and other variables may explain the variation observed at the state level.

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Third Generation Gangs Strategic Note No. 53: Barrio 18 and MS-13 Prison Riot and Massacre in Támara Women’s Prison, Honduras

Fri, 06/30/2023 - 8:52pm
A prison riot broke out in the Women’s Prison (Centro Femenino de Adaptación Social, Támara), in Támara, Honduras on 20 June 2023. The riot, which ultimately resulted in a massacre of at least 41 inmates, started as a brawl between members of the rival Pandilla 18 (Eighteenth Street) and Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) gangs. The part of the prison where the riot occurred burned down and was fully destroyed. An additional five persons subsequently succumbed to their wounds. In the aftermath of the incident, which has caused a national governmental crisis, the Honduran military assumed control of prisons throughout Honduras.

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China's Charm Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean: A comprehensive Analysis of China's Strategic Communication Strategy Across the Region [Part I: Propaganda and Politics]

Tue, 06/27/2023 - 9:05pm

Small Wars Journal−El Centro Fellow Pablo A. Baisotti has published a research paper on Chinese influence operations in Latin America. The paper, "China's Charm Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean: A comprehensive Analysis of China's Strategic Communication Strategy Across the Region [Part I: Propaganda and Politics]" was published by the Florida International University's Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy,

FIU 55

Abstract: This paper analyzes the expansion of Chinese media and public diplomacy in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Through its “discourse of power” and an attempt to extend its soft power across the continent, Chinese and some LAC media (print, audiovisual, and digital) sustained, amplified, and exalted the “achievements” of the Communist regime and the possibility of sharing them as a “community of common destiny” for all the world’s peoples. China strives to promote a positive image through communication and propaganda campaigns, incorporating LAC journalists, academics, politicians, and others who can improve its image as a reliable and supportive partner of the “Global South.”

Source:  Pablo Baisotti, "China's Charm Offensive in Latin America and the Caribbean: A comprehensive Analysis of China's Strategic Communication Strategy Across the Region [Part I: Propaganda and Politics]" (2023). Research Publications. 55, https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/jgi_research/55.

New SWJ−El Centro Fellows and Intern

Mon, 05/08/2023 - 2:50pm

New SWJ−El Centro Fellows and Intern: May 2023

Small Wars Journal-El Centro (SWJ–El Centro) is pleased to announce the addition of two new fellows and one intern to the Cadre of El Centro Fellows. The new fellows are Dr. Howard Campbell.and Dr. Mahmut Chengiz Dr. Howard Campbell.  The new intern is Keaton O.K. Bunker.

SWJ-El Centro
  • Howard Campbell is a cultural anthropologist at the University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP).socializing in Latin American studies with a primary focus on Mexico. He is author of Drug War Zone: Frontline Dispatches from the Streets of El Paso and Juárez and  Downtown Juárez: Underworlds of Violence and Abuse.
  • Mahmut Cengiz is specialist in terrorism, transnational crime, and global security at the Terrorism, Transnational Crime and Corruption Center (TraCCC) and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University with both operational and academic experience.
  • Keaton O.K. Bunker is a young scholar pursuing an internship focusing on weaponized drone use by terrorists and related violent non-state actors in primarily French speaking regions of Africa.

Our new fellows and intern will help SWJ−El Centro expand our research by deepening our inquiries into US-Mexico border security, transnational organized crime, ands emerging drone usage by violent non-state actors. 

Dr. Robert J. Bunker

Dr. Nathan P. Jones

Dr. John P. Sullivan 

Senior Fellows, SWJ–El Centro

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