The Blind Spot: How a gap in Climate Security Strategy leads to opportunities for maligned actors in Strategic Competition.

The Blind Spot: How a gap in Climate Security Strategy leads to opportunities for maligned actors in Strategic Competition.

by

Major Alexander Kenna and Major Matthew Alexander

As the US military continues to develop its climate security strategy and action plans, the current publications and programs only briefly mention proactive international actions by enhancing disaster relief and humanitarian assistance efforts. However, this approach is not a sufficient response to the complexity of climate insecurity. The current lines of effort for the DOD Climate Adaptation Plan would benefit from an additional measure that is proactive and international at its base.

The oversight of the near-term consequences of destructive climate events such as drought, flooding, rising sea levels, etc., resulting in resource scarcity for vulnerable populations has allowed adversaries of the United States to capitalize on these vulnerable states. This allows these maligned actors access economic, military, and political advantages through providing resources and infrastructure to these fragile populations. While the United States needs to focus first domestically, neglecting international efforts to combat climate insecurity will only further the loss in adversarial competition while endangering US national security.

Through three case studies, we have found that destructive climate events may not be the direct cause of instability; however, they can serve as a threat multiplier that exacerbates underlying vulnerabilities and facilitates insecurity. Climate insecurity has a strategic role worldwide that can increase the chances of competition. Climate security creates a field for the United States to advance influence and compete with adversaries by building and strengthening partnerships while discrediting its competitors.

This oversight in strategy and the evidence of its consequences are demonstrated in three regions of the world: The Syrian drought and the rise of ISIL, state and non-state actors taking advantage of Central America, and China expanding its reach in the Pacific. These three regions represent third-party actors competing for the influence of smaller governments for strategic gains, and the United States has or is currently falling short.

Syria: The Boiling Point

In Syria, an extreme drought gave the momentum for ISIL to cause regional instability and promote its goals of a global caliphate. The drought of the fertile crest from 2006–2011 exacerbated the vulnerabilities of a low-threshold Syrian population while revealing the low-capacity government of the Assad regime, leading to civil war and the eventual rise of ISIL. Before the drought and the mass exodus of people toward urban centers, poverty, and water scarcity were already pervasive within Syrian society, as employment and essential services were scarce. The drought further exposed the Syrian government’s inability to support its population, heightening grievances and resulting in significant migration not only in the middle east but throughout Europe. Accordingly, ISIL was able to capitalize on these grievances and use them as a base for recruitment, leading to an expanded presence that challenged governments in Syria and Iraq and whose effects are felt globally. Ultimately, this regional impact attracted the involvement of global powers such as Russia and the United States, who became involved with competing agendas and remain so today with no foreseeable end in sight.

Central America: The Rock in a Hard Place

Central American climate insecurity leaves opportunities for state and non-state actors to exploit the western hemisphere while threatening the US southern border. In the region, specifically the northern triangle with Nicaragua, climate insecurity issues are caused two-fold by the dry corridor to the west and hurricanes to the east. In combination, these factors degrade countries’ resiliency while increasing instability. The region comprises developing countries with primarily agricultural economies and a history of civil wars and corruption. The low-capacity governments open the door of opportunity for state and non-state actors to increase their influence and legitimacy.

These climate events are also increasing in severity. The existing competition of control by transnational criminal organizations, such as MS-13 and other gangs and cartels, ultimately threatens US national security through the increase of decades-long perpetuated cycles of immigration of those attempting to escape the regional violence and now amplified with climate refugees.

Low-capacity governments looking for relief can be subjected to economic statecrafts, like the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, when no other alternatives exist. The People’s Republic of China already has 21 Latin American countries committed to the Belt and Road Initiative. Addressing the issues of mass migration through the US southern border by the US government has been primarily a reactive approach rather than proactive. Relations between Nicaragua and Russia have steadily grown, with authoritarian President Daniel Ortega receiving military equipment and training aid. Rivals of the United States can weaponize mass migrations by increasing instability.

The Emerging Challenges of the Pacific

China is expanding its reach in the Pacific by exploiting countries most susceptible to rising sea levels. To the world’s surprise, China secretly signed a bilateral security agreement with the Solomon Islands in April 2022. The deal is the first known security pact between China and any nation in the Pacific. It allows China to send security personnel and base naval ships on the Solomon Islands. The security agreement comes when the Pacific finds itself amid strategic competition from heightened tensions between China and the United States. The agreement caught many off guard and is seen as a sign of China’s growing influence and ability to undermine the United States on the global stage.

Pacific Island Countries, like the Solomons, find themselves at the center of strategic competition between China and the United States. Given their location, Pacific Island Countries represent the gateway to Asia and play a pivotal role in movement across the Pacific. Seemingly neglected by great powers over the past decades, these islands are now embroiled in a contest for influence as tensions have recently heightened between the two nations. The small nation islands were left reeling from shutdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, and their inability to diversify their economies has had consequential effects, rendering them vulnerable to external influence. The competition between China and the United States elevated during the Summer of 2022 as China seeks to sign security agreements and economic deals as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. The United States has pledged additional funding to the islands and reopened embassies to counter Beijing’s strategy. As China and the United States are focused on thwarting each other’s influence through security and economic agreements in the region, the Pacific Islands Nations remain steadfast that their primary concern is the threat of climate change.

These nations are susceptible to destructive climate events as most of their communities reside in low-lying areas. This susceptibility and other preexisting vulnerabilities leave the islands at significant risk. As a result, rising powers, such as China, can view an opportunity, such as climate insecurity, as a window of opportunity to leverage for strategic gains. Therefore, the United States must support and engage on issues deemed vital by the region while strengthening its objectives.

Defend Forward

            Adversaries of the United States have been mastering the trade of influencing vulnerable states for years, and the United States is losing ground in the dynamic environment of strategic competition. Climate insecurity has become a shared threat across the world as an increase in global temperatures has and will continue to, lead to a rise in the number and strength of natural disasters, extreme weather events, floods, heatwaves, wildfires, warming oceans, severe drought, and rising sea levels. The threat of climate insecurity has been and will continue to be a point of leverage for state and non-state actors for malign regional influence. How will the United States respond? The 2022 National Security Strategy focuses heavily on global competition and the impact of climate instability, but never in conjunction. US climate insecurity defense efforts are focused primarily on domestic and operational resiliency and contributing to reducing greenhouse gases.

A Defend Forward effort, similar to US Cyber Command’s, with a whole of government approach, would benefit the US in strategic competition and climate security efforts. For specific applications, the effort would collaborate with existing intelligence organizations and develop models to understand, identify, and prioritize efforts at the national level. Delegation of planning and action would be given to each Geographic Combatant Command, working closely with climate security experts. USAFRICOM has already taken the initial steps by addressing climate security issues for the continent at a symposium in February 2022.

Additionally, tactical assessments and engagements of prioritized areas can be executed by existing mobile forces with an enduring global presence once identified. For instance, the US Army Civil Affairs, which specializes in understanding, engaging, and impacting the civil domain, along with other Special Operations Forces, could be mobilized before the execution of planning and funding of projects. The Defend Forward effort could be financed through existing programs focusing on climate security, such as the Build Back Better World Initiative and the PREPARE Action Plan. The tools exist to resolve regional climate insecurity issues that threaten US national security and exacerbate competition. A Defend Forward line of effort can mitigate regional instability and close the door of opportunity for maligned actors created by climate insecurity.