Case Studies in Genocide
by Captain Matthew Orris, Small Wars Journal
Case Studies in Genocide (Full PDF Article)
No matter what system is emplaced to measure and gauge the "atmospherics" of a group of people (ethnic, religious, tribal etc) the most accurate is the one that can articulate their motives via deeds and words. If for instance a specific group has decided to move literally enmasse from one location to another, there are existing tools to provide a good mechanism for assessing in a specific area what is occurring and how that may lead to future events in the near term. The purpose of his paper is not to create another system for categorizing and tracking indicators but rather what can be done once it is apparent that there is a problem that ongoing and it is about to get far worse. There is a non-doctrinal term we can ascribe to such a unique mass migration of people: GETHOOD (GETting-The-Hell-Out-Of-Dodge).
Few things in life ever just occur spontaneously even though it may seem that way. The job of MI soldiers is not to be soothsayers, regardless how much commanders may want this, but rather to ensure that commander's and the soldiers on the ground are not surprised by what the enemy might do (i.e. identifying the operation an enemy is likely to take at a given time and place as opposed to the exact tactics he will use as that time and place). The goal is not just preventing the enemy from doing something, but assisting the commander in preparing and planning for all likely eventualities.
As an institution the trend is to think that humanitarian operations are a completely separate mission set that a unit could deploy in support of, when it actually should be addressed at the battalion level should such a mission suddenly appear in the middle of another ongoing operation (combat and peacekeeping). The scope being addressed here is not the opening of a bazaar, building a well or clinic but rather how to help a battalion staff start the initial planning of what to do if suddenly caught in the middle of a true humanitarian crisis --such as genocide or ethnic gerrymandering.
