OM: How appealing are the “The Pakistani Taliban” grievances outside FATA in the other discontented ethnic communities? Could the Pakistani Taliban use a religious trans-ethnic platform to rally all these dissatisfied provinces against the centre?
SQ: Has nobody in Europe wondered why, despite the all-pervasive anti-Americanism (among the common man) in the Pashtun dominated region, there is NO support (outside their own tribes) for those Pashtun tribes that have revolted? In the case of those tribes fighting against the state (Pakistan), there is very limited support even from within their tribes. Basically, the Maulvi (Cleric---for lack of a better word, since there are no clerics in Islam) is so far down the social order that he barely makes it above the menials! For this reason alone, tribes that throw up Maulvis as leaders will never be acceptable to other tribes. However, your question has another angle to it (in its first portion). The answer is no; the Taliban have virtually no support/sympathy outside their tribes in the PASHTUN belt. However, there is a very troubling growth of the Taliban in our settled areas, particularly in Punjab and, to a very limited degree in Karachi. For me, the greatest worry is Taliban increase in Punjab. It is the most lethal threat of the future and is multiplied by the fact that the government insists on remaining in a state of denial! According to them, there is no such threat. This is the breeding ground from where increasing numbers of suicide attackers are going to the tribal areas for training.
Shaukat Qadir is an Independent Risk and Security Threat Analyst. He is a former Brigadier in the Pakistani Army. His expertise is focused mainly on South Asia with emphasis on terrorism, conflict resolution, security, conduct of warfare, guerrilla warfare and, to a limited extent, nuclear stability. For more info you can access http://shaukatqadir.info/
OM: Having in mind the possible appealing of the “The Pakistani Taliban” grievances outside FATA and in the other discontented ethnic communities is the Pakistani state on the verge of becoming a jihadist state?
AS: It is complicated. The Pakistani Taliban have little mass appeal in or outside FATA. The main reason for their growth and power is military patronage of ‘jihad.’ The generals see some violent extremist groups as legitimate instruments of ‘warfare’ against India. The military nurtures and uses groups like the LeT for fighting India in Kashmir, and the Afghan Taliban to counter Indian influence in Kabul, especially after the U.S. troops wind down in the region. However, there is ‘blow back’ from military sponsorship of jihadi groups in the shape of radicalization within both officer and enlisted ranks of the Pakistani Armed Forces. Recent arrests of military officers suggest that some militant groups have infiltrated the military, although it is too early to definitively assess the implications of this development for the stability of the military, Pakistan and the rest of the world.
Aqil Shah is a post-doctoral fellow at the Society of Fellows, Harvard University. He is expert on Military Politics and Democratization in South Asia, especially Pakistan. He is currently working on a book manuscript on the origins and sources of sustained military intervention and weak civilian control in Pakistan in a comparative perspective. He holds a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University and an M.Phil. in international development from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar.
About the Author(s)
Octavian Manea was a Fulbright Junior Scholar at Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs (Syracuse University) where he received an MA in International Relations and a Certificate of Advanced Studies in Security Studies.