by Neoptolemus
Download the Full Article: Defense in an Age of Austerity: 2022
My fellow Americans, it is with a grave heart and serious reservations that I come to you today to announce the implementation of the results of the Preserving America's Economic Security Commission. This congressionally-authorized panel was established to provide our nation's elected leaders with recommendations to better balance the abyss between our national treasury and our collective ability to pay for our own government and security. Decades of delay and delusion have brought us well past the crisis point. We have preserved global stability for others for many decades, but at great expense. The long war against extremism has cost us well over $2T in direct costs alone and the interest compounds daily. Meanwhile the country's demographic aging, rising health care costs, and insatiable appetite for entitlements has placed our great Nation's balance sheet deep in the red. A culture of entitlement over sacrifice and shared obligation has eroded our stature as a great power and our moral standing. A decade of continued economic pressure, unemployment above 12%, coupled with a determined resistance on the part of the nation's elected officials to come to any serious resolution of the country's fiscal crisis has brought us to the point of peril.
The international bond market has spoken. We presently owe $23T in publicly held debt and at least another $10T in unfunded social security liabilities. Just the interest on that debt alone costs us more than $1T a year, double our annual defense expenditures. We continue to run trillion dollar deficits as we have for the entire last decade. Our debt to revenue ratio is now well over 120%. People are beginning to avoid U.S. backed bonds and dollar based investments. Now interest rates are climbing several points from 3 to 5 to 7% on our bonds, as global markets have found better places and safer currencies in which to invest. The dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency or first choice. We once criticized small countries like Greece or Ireland for failing to meet their debts, and now we are in far worse shape.
Download the Full Article: Defense in an Age of Austerity: 2022
Neoptolemus, a retired infantry officer, is currently imprisoned as a senior defense official in the Pentagon. Neoptolemus was the son of the warrior Achilles and the princess Deidamia in Greek mythology.
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Twelve salami slice decisions, all of which have been bruited about for years, many surfacing numerous times? Not terribly innovative. Rather Army centric list at that, not very 'joint.'
One presumes the 2022 year is selected to show that decisions that should have been made 40 or so years ago that have not been implemented by today will still be things to cut in ten years. That's realistic -- it's the American way, never do today what one can pass to ones successor with no tarnish to ones self.
How about all the smart senior defense officials staging a mutiny and developing a 2013 Budget that begins implementing some of those ideas, modified, in that FY? Why wait until 2022 and let someone else tell you what to cut...
It isn't hard to imagine several scenarios where no more than 500 fighters might be needed and 350 would be desired but only 100 or so are available due to other contingencies and the vagaries of OR rates and stationing. I'm also able to envision our nominal allies who are buying the JSF getting mildly perturbed at our breaking faith and raising indirectly the cost of their aircraft and support...
One wonders how many Army slots would transfer to the USAF for that Missile and Space defense effort -- also be nice to know no US Army GO would ever get terribly upset at being told his Corps would have to get by without anti-missile defense due to "other higher priority Theater requirements..."
Having been in and worked with both the Active Component and the Army National Guard. I know the Guard has some great folks who can do some things better than the Active Component can, Field Artllery, all types being one example. I'm also aware that there are some other things that preclude them from being highly trained in some aspects of combat. Armor being an example of that -- it's hard to fire a Tank Gun east of the Mississippi for instance. My view is that the ArNG should number about 750K and the Active Army about 350K -- that obviously entails numerous mission changes (emotionally painful but sensible changes...). While I very much agree a return to the citizen Army bit would be beneficial, it better be planned by some <u>really</u> smart guys and gals.
I also agree that we should avoid IW etc. Unfortunately, history proves that IW will not avoid us -- don't close any operation that will adversely affect our ability to develop doctrine and training -- you'll regret it in the morning...
The Marines are not going to lose their Tanks and fixed wing. Omar Bradley, Hoyt Vandenberg and several Admirals tried that. So have a few Presidents. A lot of people have tried that. Many times. Don't bother trying, waste of effort. It won't happen. Nor should it. Move a like number of tanks from the Active Army to the ArNG, that makes much more sense.
I could go on but we could achieve the savings desired without cutting into the muscle by cutting spaces and shutting down the Combatant Commands. We have a lot of underemployed people, military and civilian, in a lot of excessively large and redundant staffs -- Including in that five sided building. More dangerous than the apocryphal Second Lieutenant with a map is a smart, Type A guy who has little to do on a large staff.
Oh, and we're way over-ranked; too many Chiefs and not enough Indians, as they say...