News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin.
1. FDD | Kim Jong Un Returns to Preside Over Central Military Commission
2. U.S. Charges North Korea Officials With Illegally Transferring $2.5 Billion
3. North Korea fury: China's outrage with Kim Jong-un's state exposed
4. U.S. brings massive N. Korean sanctions case, targeting state-owned bank and former government officials
5. Husband and wife are executed after trying to flee North Korea
6. British envoys leave Pyongyang as embassy closes
7. Top U.S. military officer calls for readiness against N. Korea, other actors
8. Replacement interceptor missiles brought onto THAAD base
9. N.K. food shortages not catastrophic this year despite coronavirus impact: U.S. monitor
10. The North Korean Economy: The Pandemic and North Korean Food Security
11. Standoffish North Korea discovers the limits of self-reliance
12. U.S. Experts Warn Seoul Against Slackening N.Korea Sanctions
13. Photo: N. Korean laborers in China are making protective suits
14. Downsizing USFK could help denuclearization talks, presidential advisor says
1. FDD | Kim Jong Un Returns to Preside Over Central Military Commission
fdd.org · by David Maxwell Senior Fellow, Mathew Ha Research Analyst· May 28, 2020
The latest from my colleague Mathew Ha and me.
2. U.S. Charges North Korea Officials With Illegally Transferring $2.5 Billion
WSJ · by Aruna Viswanatha and Ian Talley · Updated May 28, 2020 3:52 pm ET
A good step forward but does this go hard enough at both the north Koreans and the Chinese?
Without reading the indictment (my colleague Mat Ha is analyzing and will write a brief about it) my SWAG (scientific wild ass guess) is that it does not. But it is a start. Also, although the majority of those indicted are north Korea, I wonder if this is a first poke in China's eye using the north Korean issue. So it may be we are not as concerned with enforcing north Korean sanctions but instead we are using those sanctions as part of our political warfare strategy versus China.
But it is still better than doing nothing. Some of my friends are already worried that Kim might respond to this with a missile/rocket test. Perhaps, but I am not convinced he will do one at least in the immediate future (but as with all things north Korea, I could be wrong).
From the paper Mat and I wrote today (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/05/28/kim-jong-un-military-commission/ ) we say that the North is sending the message they are not going to give up their nuclear program. We have known that Treasury has long had a long list of entities to sanction. Perhaps we decided to pull the trigger after the Central Military Commission meeting the weekend and the resulting statements on increasing the regime's nuclear deterrent. And there is the added bonus of impacting China as well.
Some will argue this shows that we have not been doing enough on sanctions.
First, the self-imposed population and resources control measures by the North to prevent a COVID 19 outbreak have shut off most cross-border trade, both legal and illegal and this is having a greater impact than sanctions.
Second, sanctions are having a great effect but not in the conventional sense like everyone wants. The importance of the sanctions in place is that Kim Jong-un raised expectations of sanctions being lifted because he told his elite he could execute his "long con" and manipulate both Trump and Moon. He has failed to do so and this has put him under enormous internal pressure. Defectors tell me this is viewed as the biggest failure by any of the three Kims. The most important thing is not sanctions enforcement but not lifting sanctions. Even though sanctions evasion has allowed the flow of money and illicit goods that we have not tried hard to stop it is simply that Kim has failed to get sanctions lifted after promising to get it done that is the most important. Yes, it would make us feel good to try to hurt the regime more, but it is not the hurting of the regime that matters. The North has survived worse than sanctions. But it may not be able to survive Kim's failure (or he may not be able). The key point is that he has not been able to successfully execute his blackmail diplomacy strategy (the use of provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions). The nuclear program is a key part of that and arguably is more important than the use of nuclear weapons. But all the sacrifices the military and the Korean people in the north have made has not resulted in any significant benefits save for the belief that it is deterring a US attack. The payoff the elite and the military want is lifting of sanctions and they have not got it. This is why we should never lift sanctions (unless they actually do denuclearize but I am not holding my breath for that as long as the Kim family regime is in power).
We need to take a look at the broader strategy beyond sanctions and sanctions enforcement. We either provide the external pressure that generates sufficient internal pressure to cause Kim to change his calculus and if that does not come to fruition, we continue to work toward the long-term goal of solving the Korea question.
Also, there is a short video at the link.
3. North Korea fury: China's outrage with Kim Jong-un's state exposed
Express · by Josh Saunders · May 28, 2020
Although it goes against the conventional thinking of many westerners, there is no love between China and North Korea. This article is derived from Chris Mikul's 2019 book My Favourite Dictators. I have not read the book. This article covers some of the basics of the development of the cult following of Kim Il-sung. I wonder about the *$850 million for the gold statue though when it comes to honor the leaders of the regime, I am sure money is no object. (And I also think they mine about 3 tons of gold per year and have about 2000 metric tons gold reserves by some reports - though please not hold me to that - the key point is they have gold and they mine it so I suppose they could use it to build a 66 foot statue of Kim Il Sung).
4. U.S. brings massive N. Korean sanctions case, targeting state-owned bank and former government officials
The Washington Post · by Spencer S. Hsu and Ellen Nakashima · May 28, 2020 at 4:37 pm EDT
5. Husband and wife are executed after trying to flee North Korea
Daily Mail · by Emer Scully For Mailonline · May 28, 2020
And here we have another example of the true nature of the Kim family regime. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
We also need to keep in mind the conflict between north and South, and the North and almost everyone else, is an Ideological War. The Korean people must have a choice between these values:
The Shared ROK/US Values
- Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights
The Kim family regime (KFR) "values"
- Juche/Kimilsungism, Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain KFR power
But the main point in this article is the regime is covering up the coronavirus crisis.
6. British envoys leave Pyongyang as embassy closes
asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · May 28, 2020
I would love to be at the debriefing of these personnel. Is this an indication that there is an outbreak or is this just the effective employment of draconian population and resources control measures?
7. Top U.S. military officer calls for readiness against N. Korea, other actors
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · May 29, 2020
Don't take the eye off the ball amid the coronavirus crisis.
8. Replacement interceptor missiles brought onto THAAD base
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · May 29, 2020
Yes, this surely upsets China as well as South Korean activists. China conducted an economic warfare campaign against the ROK until 2017 when President Moon allegedly agreed to Xi's demands that said there can be no new THAAD deployment, no participation by the ROK in an integrated missile defense system, and no trilateral alliance with the ROK, US, and Japan.
Because of the continued protests of activists the "base" the soldiers are living and working on remains quite primitive (unless the troops brought their golf clubs because it is a former golf course). Not the reference to power generation equipment to improve the living conditions. Because of the continued protests against THAAD it is difficult to resupply the base by ground and most of the supplies are brought in by air which is not the best way to resupply ground forces for the long term.
9. N.K. food shortages not catastrophic this year despite coronavirus impact: U.S. monitor
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 29, 2020
This is of course counter to what activists such as Women across the DMZ project. The coronavirus population and resources control measures are having a great effect on the North than all of the sanctions.
10. The North Korean Economy: The Pandemic and North Korean Food Security
38north.org · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · May 28, 2020
Note the analysis of markets and prices. Yes, the Korean people in the North live an extremely difficult life compared to almost every country in the world but their resilience is simply astounding. The North is receiving aid (primarily from China). But this is the key point: "The coming harvest will likely not be disastrously low, but will not be as good as it needs to be. Chronic food shortages are normal in North Korea, and much of the general public consumes far fewer calories than their daily need even in a good year. Several factors make projections and analyses particularly uncertain. The border closure related to COVID-19 makes imports of fertilizer, seeds and most likely food much more difficult and time consuming, as all cargo has to go through thorough inspections and sanitization. China may well shore up North Korea's food supply should the harvest turn out to be poor, although such aid may not reach those in greatest need."
The conclusion is titled "More Muddling through." I believe Marcus Noland was one of the first to use the term muddle through for North Korea in his 1997 article in Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1997-07-01/why-north-korea-will-muddle-through.
11. Standoffish North Korea discovers the limits of self-reliance
The Economist· May 30, 2020
As noted, the effects of measures to defend against the coronavirus are more severe than sanctions. It has had a significant effect on the economy. I wonder if Kim is succumbing to the pressure of armed protestors on the steps of statehouses demanding reopening. Oh wait, North Korea does not have protestors and they certainly are not armed (please excuse the attempt at humor).
But the buried here is Chris Green's comment that the currency actions taken by the North "may be part of a longer-term strategy to restore state control over the economy." The North shut down a significant amount of market activity (legal and illegal) when it closed the border with China. It has banned foreign currency (most market activity is conducted in dollars, RMB, and euros. Kim may be trying to at least prevent the further growth of market activity and try to keep it at the level that was probably intended - as a safety valve for the population after the failure of the public distribution system during the Arduous March of the famine in 1994-1996.
12. U.S. Experts Warn Seoul Against Slackening N.Korea Sanctions
Chosunilbo · by Kim Myong-song · May 29, 2020
Important statements by William Newcomb, Joshua Stanton, and Michael O'Hanlon. The key point for South Korea: "Their tenor, according to a summary by Voice of America on Thursday, was remarkably similar -- namely that any attempts to engage the North in business are futile and will violate international sanctions. They also warned that the overtures could pose a very real legal risk for South Korean businesses, who could face punitive measures from the UN Security Council or America."
13. Photo: N. Korean laborers in China are making protective suits
dailynk.com · May 29, 2020
How many of these suits will end up in hospitals around the world? This article describes the slave labor of these Korean from the north in China. And those "minimum wages" do not all go to the worker or their family but instead it goes to support the Kim family regime (a mafia-like crime family cult).
14. Downsizing USFK could help denuclearization talks, presidential advisor says
donga.com · May 29, 2020
I wish you could hear me scream in pain over reading this BS from Moon Chung-in. Calling for downsizing USFK demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategic objectives.
Two things: First, a downsizing of USFK will not cause the regime to denuclearize. Once the downsizing begins the regime will have the opposite reaction. It will double down on its blackmail diplomacy (the use of provocations and increased tension to gain political and economic concessions) to cause a complete withdrawal.
Second, the removal of US troops will remove the most important contribution to deterrence. There will be war if this happens. And I am not being hyperbolic here. Without US forces on the peninsula, Kim Jong-un will believe he has the correlation of forces and sufficient combat power to attack to unify the peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
Moon Chung-in's comments are pure fantasy and he is a danger to the ROK/US alliance.
-----------
A military situation at its worst can inspire fighting men to perform at their best."
- Marguerite Higgins, War in Korea: The Report of a Woman Combat Correspondent
"In Korea the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war." -President Harry Truman
"East Asia has prospered since the end of the Vietnam War, and Northeast Asia has prospered since the end of the Korean War in a way that seems unimaginable when you think of the history of the first half of the century."
- William C. Kirby