News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.
1. First Vice Department Director of WPK Central Committee Issues Statement (Kim Yo-jong)
2. Amid COVID-19, the US Needs to Rethink Its Approach to Host Nation Support Talks
3. Kim Jong Un to Trump: 'I Won't Bring You Flowers Anymore'
4. Seoul holds top security meeting over Pyongyang's threats
5. Seoul urges Pyongyang to keep reconciliatory deals, staunch posture in place over threats
6. Could Donald Trump Attack North Korea Before the 2020 Election?
7. Why Kim Jong-un's sister is putting the pressure on South Korea
8. North Korea Arrests Citizens for Thought Crimes After Anti-Exile Protests
9. South Korea on alert following threats from the North two years after first Trump-Kim summit
10. North Korea war alert: Kim Jong-un's sister promises retaliatory actions for defectors
11. How Donald Trump's North Korea gamble went bust
12. 'Comfort women' crisis: campaign over wartime sexual slavery hit by financial scandal
13. Desecrating Korean War Veterans' Graves at the National Memorial Cemeteries in South Korea
14. U.S. embassy in Seoul displays Black Lives Matter banner in support of anti-racism protests
1. First Vice Department Director of WPK Central Committee Issues Statement (Kim Yo-jong)
Date: 14/06/2020 | Source: Uriminzokkiri (En) | Read original version at source
This sure is raising the rhetoric to a new level. And this is a very powerful statement from Kim Yo-jong: Quote "By exercising my power authorized by the Supreme Leader, our Party and the state, I gave an instruction to the arms of the department in charge of the affairs with enemy to decisively carry out the next action." She is telling us she has the authority to issue orders to the Army and she is telling us she has given orders for the Army to take action. On the one hand it is an admission of the tremendous pressure the regime is under due to the failure to get sanctions relief. It is also interesting how she describes her new power and the trust that has been put in her. I really wonder if something is wrong with KJU. But this is quite a threat to use the Army. On the one hand it is not any worse or provocative than past threats to turn Seoul into a sea of fire. However, this threat both reinforces the power of the military by giving it the direction to do something but not specifically telegraphing what will be done. The military will figure out what is to be done (but nothing can ever be done without Kim Jong-un's approval). That provides both operational security by not telegraphing a course of action but also plausible deniability if something goes bad (and the blame will be on the military). And if they do not do anything the blame for that will be on the military. The message seems to be to both legitimize and strengthen the military (continued Military First Politics) and to set the foundation for future blame of the military. And we know that in almost everything north Korea does it prepares to have a fall guy or scapegoat - especially in negotiations with the South and the US.
And a friend pointed out this in response to my comments above: The same logic could be extended to the role of KYJ. KJU can make an excuse to Moon by blaming KYJ If things go wrong or when he wants to return to the charm offensive.
The bottom line is there is a lot happening in this message.
2. Amid COVID-19, the US Needs to Rethink Its Approach to Host Nation Support Talks
thediplomat.com – Jeffery W. Hornung and Scott W. Harold - June 12, 2020
The authors make an important and logical argument. It actually should provide the basis to step back from the negotiations and find a way out and end our exorbitant demands on the ROK (and soon on Japan). As I wrote here my recommendation would be to suspend negotiations with an agreement to sustain the current levels of funding for the next two years and then begin negotiations with a clean slate. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/03/18/competing-crises%3A-a-failed-rok-us-burden-sharing-agreement-and-the-coronavirus-in-north-korea
However, I fear those who believe in a transactional alliance relationship will counter this logical argument with the fact the US is experiencing economic difficulties and suffering from the pandemic and thus our allies should be forced to pay more.
3. Kim Jong Un to Trump: 'I Won't Bring You Flowers Anymore'
Daily Beast – Gordon G. Chang – 14 June 2020
Comments from Dr. Bruce Bechtol and me.
4. Seoul holds top security meeting over Pyongyang's threats
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · June 14, 2020
South Korea has to take this seriously and so must the alliance. I imagine the permanent Military Committee has already been in consultation. And I hope the MOFA-State strategy working group is assessing this week's developments and charting a way ahead for the alliance.
5. Seoul urges Pyongyang to keep reconciliatory deals, staunch posture in place over threats
en.yna.co.kr · by 박상수 · June 14, 2020
One reason the regime is doing this is because of its perception of the state of the ROK/US alliance. Due to the perceived friction in the alliance Kim thinks he can drive a wedge deeper in the alliance and because of that friction any responses will be uncoordinated and ineffective. One of the most important responses to the north would be to demonstrate strength and resolve in the alliance. I would recommend conducting a major exercise or a series of major exercises building up to the Dong Meng 20-1 exercise in August. Simultaneously we should end the SMA/burden sharing process, agree to current levels of funding for the next two years and then return at the right time to negotiate a truly fair and equitable agreement.
6. Could Donald Trump Attack North Korea Before the 2020 Election?
The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · June 13, 2020
Of course, he could. But the reason for doing so has to due to north Korean actions. To think that we would conduct a "wag the dog" election strike is well unthinkable. Such an action would surely have catastrophic blowback.
Also, I question the idea that north Korea is unpredictable. The actions this week while seemingly unpredictable actually follow the regime's seven decades old playbook and should be no surprise. Sure, the timing can be a surprise and the rhetoric can be new but the fact the regime is taking such action should be a surprise to no one.
7. Why Kim Jong-un's sister is putting the pressure on South Korea
South China Morning Post – John Power – 14 June 2020
Because she can.
Yes, grooming for succession could be one reason.
She is the only person Kim Jong-un trusts. Someone has to do the work since it seems since March Kim is on a work schedule of work one day and take a three-week holiday.
But I also think we have to realize what a threat information is to the regime. The work of escapees trying to get information to the Korean people in the north is a real threat.
8. North Korea Arrests Citizens for Thought Crimes After Anti-Exile Protests
From Radio Free Asia. Remember that this is broadcast into north Korea so the Korean people can get the news. Note these are forced "anti-exile protests" in the north. Those who were "absent" were arrested. One of the "thought crimes" was a citizen commenting to someone that he thought the escapees/defectors are doing important work. We should think about that. I wonder if these forced protests backfired for the regime since it calls attention to the important work escapees/defectors are doing for the Korean people in the north.
9. South Korea on alert following threats from the North two years after first Trump-Kim summit
Stars and Stripes – Kim Gamel – 14 June 2020
I wonder what level of "alert." Is the military on alert? Or are these just words to describe the Blue House being alert for some new development? Or is this just rhetorical?
Experts are speculating an artillery firing. I wonder since we are entering the "crab war" period in the West Sea if we are going to a naval provocation or something against the Northwest Islands.
10. North Korea war alert: Kim Jong-un's sister promises retaliatory actions for defectors
Express · by Gursimran Hans · June 14, 2020
The knee jerk reaction by South Korea should be to denounce the regime and ensure the escapees/defectors are well protected. They are (South) Korean citizens. They and their work should be protected. But instead the knee jerk reaction is to denounce Korean citizens and attempt to pass a law to prevent their continued human rights work (the work they are doing is in support of the human rights of the Korean people living in the north). I hate to be this harsh, but these are not the actions that should be taken by a liberal democracy and a country that is trying to rebuild its historical narrative around its democracy movement. The administration's actions undermine the legitimacy of the democracy movement narrative.
11. How Donald Trump's North Korea gamble went bust
NBC News · June 13, 2020 – Ken Dilanian
Yes, I regret many of POTUS's statements and tweets. But those statements and tweets are not the cause of the "failure" of a "deal." The fault for failure lies in the nature of the Kim family regime: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
I would say the success of the President's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy is that it has allowed us to cope, contain, and manage the north Korean problem, has sustained the longest period of maximum pressure which despite the massive sanctions evasion continues to exert pressure on Kim because of his failure to gain sanctions relief, and despite what the critics say, we have not succumbed to Kim's "long con" and his political warfare with Juche characteristics. Now is the time for us to play our long game and our superior form of political warfare that must focus on solving the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, sustain, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests in Northeast Asia: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
12. 'Comfort women' crisis: campaign over wartime sexual slavery hit by financial scandal
The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · June 14, 2020
This is a terribly sad development.
13. Desecrating Korean War Veterans' Graves at the National Memorial Cemeteries in South Korea
eastasiaresearch.org · by Tara O · June 13, 2020
This pains me to read. And the treatment of General Piak is truly troubling, disappointing, and sad.
14. U.S. embassy in Seoul displays Black Lives Matter banner in support of anti-racism protests
Reuters – Cynthia Kim – 14 June 2020
And very good tweets from the US Embassy and the Ambassador.
"The most extravagant idea that can be born in the head of a political thinker is to believe that it suffices for people to enter, weapons in hand, among a foreign people and expect to have its laws and constitution embraced. No one loves armed missionaries. The first lesson of nature and prudence is to repulse them as enemies."
- French Revolutionary leader Robespierre, in a speech he gave to the Jacobin Club on 2 January 1792
"There are those who would draw a sharp line between power politics and a principled foreign policy based on values. This polarized view - you are either a realist or devoted to norms and values - may be just fine in academic debate, but it is a disaster for American foreign policy. American values are universal."
- Condoleezza Rice
"We thought that the dispatch of American forces to any of these threatened areas would, in fact, be self-defeating. The idea of strategic bombing as a weapon against communist infiltration and subversion would have been strange to us. What seemed to us desirable was to stimulate and encourage the rise of indigenous political resistance to communist pressures in the threatened countries. We believed that unless the people and governments of those countries operating through their own political systems, could be induced to pick up the great burden of this load, success was not likely. For us to attempt to carry that burden would have effects - such as the paralysis of local initiative and responsibility, or the negative impact which a great foreign presence inevitably has on the natives of a country - which would tend to defeat the purpose of the undertaking."
- George Kennan, 1967