News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.
1. US nuclear envoy will reportedly visit South Korea and Japan
2. North Korea Reiterates its Silent-Treatment Policy Toward US
3. Pyongyang ups pressure on Washington ahead of Biegun's Seoul visit this week
4. N. Korean state media refrain from criticizing S. Korea for nearly 2 weeks
5. North Korean ex-diplomat says lack of food, necessities intensifying in isolated nation
6. Can virus-hit North Korea economy survive sanctions?
7. Kim Jong Un's fury stems from his blaming Moon for Hanoi debacle
8. N.K. paper calls for following through with Kim's order for 'maximum alert' against virus
9. Sporadic cluster infections push new virus cases above 60 for 3rd day
10. A new team (opEd on the South Korean security team)
11. Osan city holds annual memorial event honoring fallen U.S. soldiers in 1st Korean War battle
1. US nuclear envoy will reportedly visit South Korea and Japan
Stars and Stripes – by Hooyeon Kim – 5 July 2020
I have been queried about this visit, recent statements from Choe Son-hui and Kim Yo-Jong, the potential for an 'October Surprise" (either a summit or a provocation), and the new South Korean security team. Here is my consolidated assessment. This applies to many of the articles posted below.
Despite speculation about an October surprise, I do not think there will be a meeting between Trump and Kim and I do not believe Trump or any US president should meet with Kim until after substantive working level negotiations are held to determine an agreement to bring to both leaders for approval. No useful or practical agreement can be made at a summit without substantive working level negotiations. We should remember the US has stood ready for working level negotiations since Singapore 2018 and it is Kim Jong-un who has refused to allow such negotiations.
I also do not think that Kim will agree to a meeting with Trump unless he is guaranteed at least partial lifting of sanctions. Kim Jong-un has raised expectations among his elite and the military since Singapore 2018 that he could "play" both Moon and Trump and would be able to get sanctions relief while still keeping his nuclear weapons, what I like to call his long con. He is upset with Trump because he has provided Trump with a foreign policy "win" by keeping his promise to not test a nuclear weapon or and ICBM. He believes he has provided Trump political capital while Trump has not returned the favor. Kim's failure to get sanctions relief has put him under enormous pressure from the elite and the military in Pyongyang. I think this is one of the reasons for not only Choe Son-hui's recent statement saying there will be no summit with the US but also Kim Yo-jong's threats a couple weeks ago. And we should never forget the what demand for an end to US hostile policy means. Kim Jong-un demands an end to the ROK/US alliance, withdrawal of all US troops, and an end to extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan.
But the important question is what will another summit accomplish? What would be the goal? Just to have another photo-op? Does anyone believe it would help Trump's reelection? The fact is Kim Jong-un cannot help or hurt Trump's chances for reelection. He is just not that important to the American people and will not impact the election unless he starts a war. Although a nuclear test or an ICBM launch may cross an undesignated "red line" in Trump's mind the reaction to such provocations will not impact the election because his base is not going to change their votes and his opposition will not either. Someone should transmit to Kim Jong-un that he will have no effect on the US election. Again, he is just not that important to the American people. However, a provocation in October is possible because Kim is both desperate for sanctions relief and he will double down on his blackmail diplomacy to use increased tensions and violent provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
I think Mr. Biegun is going to Korea and Japan to coordinate north Korea policy with our allies. As you know, his South Korean counterpart Lee Do-hoon recently came to Washington. I am sure that Mr Biegun and Mr. Lee want to ensure support for the ROK-US strategy working group that has recently been criticized by some policy makers in South Korea (as well as by the north) who seek to undermine the ROK-US relationship. This working group has been instrumental in ensuring synchronization of north Korean policy behind the scenes. Contrary to South Korean criticism by those who have no idea how important the strategy working group is, it has not been a roadblock to intra-Korean relations. The reason that intra-Korea relations are not proceeding is because of decisions by Kim Jong-un. He is the one who is preventing improved relations with the South and with the US.
Given Kim Jong-un's recent actions and statements from his sister and Choe Son-hui, The Moon administration needs to reevaluate the peace strategy and reassess the assumptions upon which it is based. The strategy is based on the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-un also seeks peace and would engage and negotiate in good faith as a responsible member of the international community. President Moon needs to build a strategy that is based on an understanding of the true nature of the Kim family regime along with its objective to dominate the Korean peninsula under north Korean rule. The regime's objectives have not changed in seven decades and the Moon administration must understand that.
Unfortunately, President Moon's new security team indicates that instead of reevaluating the current strategy the administration will double down on it. The administration has prioritized close contacts with north Korean officials over the ROK/US alliance. This is unfortunate because neither the ROK nor the US can be successful against north Korea diplomatically or militarily without a strong rock solid ROK/US alliance. The Moon administration does not appear to have that view.
The national security team is going to create problems with the alliance and in particular the US intelligence community. With Mr. Park's appointment as head of the NIS the intelligence liaison relationship is going to suffer. The intelligence community cannot publicly say this but I imagine the assessment inside the US intelligence community will be that every bit of intelligence shared with the NIS must be considered compromised because it will be shared with north Korea. Mr. Park's long-standing relationships with north Korean officials places the NIS relationship with the US intelligence community at risk.
2. North Korea Reiterates its Silent-Treatment Policy Toward US
military.com · by Tim Balk · July 5, 2020
Hmm... but they sure do talk about us alot. Sounds like a petulant child.
3. Pyongyang ups pressure on Washington ahead of Biegun's Seoul visit this week
The Korea Times · July 5, 2020
What pressure? Kim Jong-un has failed to get sanctions relief and I do not think we (and I hope we won't) will give in to the north's blackmail diplomacy and demand for concessions in the form of sanctions relief. Kim is the one under pressure from his elite and military. We have the strength and resolve to see the Korean problem (the Korea question) through. The statements from Choe Sun-hui does not put us under pressure. We should never again meet with Kim until there are substantive working level negotiations that conclude an agreement that can be brought to the leaders for approval. Despite Bolton and other pundits Trump does need an "October Surprise" summit. It just will not change the outcome of the election and Kim Jong-un is sadly mistaken if he thinks it will. Pressure? What pressure?
4. N. Korean state media refrain from criticizing S. Korea for nearly 2 weeks
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020
The last time that happened was in May 1950. We should never forget all warfare is based on deception. Perhaps it is because they like the new Moon administration security team.
5. North Korean ex-diplomat says lack of food, necessities intensifying in isolated nation
americanmilitarynews.com · by Asia News Network · July 4, 2020
No surprise here but these are indicators to which we must pay close attention, most importantly the effects of the shortages.
6. Can virus-hit North Korea economy survive sanctions?
The Korea Times · July 5, 2020
It could if it would comply with sanctions. All Kim has to do is comply with the sanctions.
But as noted the north and the regime are very resilient. But what has made the north resilient over the past two decades has been the growth of market activity to replace the failed public distribution system. That has been dependent on cross border trade and smuggling and the draconian population and resources control measures have really had an impact on trade and smuggling. Thus, the people are struggling. This bears watching though as noted, it is likely to continue to muddle through. But Kim is using the coronavirus as an excuse to further crack down on economic activity and the use of foreign currency and too tighten the control over the people. This could cause nascent resistance which we have never seen on any significant scale. Again, it bears close watch of the indicators.
7. Kim Jong Un's fury stems from his blaming Moon for Hanoi debacle
asia.nikkei.com – by Yosuke Onchi – 5 July 2020
Interesting analysis. Failing to get sanctions relief is one of the biggest failures of the three Kims. And Kim's playbook only has one real option: blackmail diplomacy. The blaming of President Moon for the failure may seem like a convenient excuse and a way to save face it is really likely an indication that both Kim and Moon fail to understand the Trump administration. Neither likely considered that Trump would walk out of the Hanoi summit.
8. N.K. paper calls for following through with Kim's order for 'maximum alert' against virus
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · July 5, 2020
I do not think there should be any doubt about how worried and scared the regime is about the coronavirus.
9. Sporadic cluster infections push new virus cases above 60 for 3rd day
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · July 5, 2020
While Korea thinks this is bad, it is of course no comparison to what is happening in the US. And I think the Koreans will get a handle on this. But we should take from this that even with some of the best public health practices the virus can spread especially if people are not following the correct procedures.
10. A new team (opEd on the South Korean security team)
The Moon administration doubles down on the peace strategy.
11. Osan city holds annual memorial event honoring fallen U.S. soldiers in 1st Korean War battle
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · July 5, 2020
We should never forget Task Force Smith.
"If ever a time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin."
- Samuel Adams
"Every day is lost in which we do not learn something useful. Man has no nobler or more valuable possession than time."
- Thomas Jefferson
"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both"
- James Madison