News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Trump says N.K. would seek talks if election was not near
2. U.S. is ready to negotiate N. Korea's denuclearization: U.S. envoy
3. U.S. says N.K. must stop provocations, return to nuclear talks
4. N.K. leader orders special aid for Kaesong on coronavirus lockdown
5. N.K. leader presides over party meeting, orders special aid for Kaesong
6. Ri Pyong Chol: Kim’s New Right Hand Man?
7. 'October surprise' summit between U.S., N.K. unlikely: Moon's adviser
8. Burying their heads in the sand (The Moon Administration and US Troop Reductions)
9. North Korea Has Likely Been Able to Miniaturize Nuclear Weapons for Years
10. North Korea Sends Special Forces to Ryanggang Province Border With China
11. North Korea’s Escalating Virus Response Raises Concerns
12. WHO says North Korea's COVID-19 test results for first suspected case 'inconclusive'
13. Unification minister expresses regret over N.K's release of dam water
14. N. Korea pursues long-range nuclear missiles through 'deliberate testing program': Pentagon official
15. Kim Jong-un fury: North Korea launches attack over ‘bitter regrets’ towards US
16. Trump’s South Korea bashing doesn’t strengthen Xi
17. Laser beam and EMP launchers to fight against drones
18. $10 million in aid to North going to UN agency
1. Trump says N.K. would seek talks if election was not near
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 6, 2020
The single most important metric for President Trump is the promise Kim made not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs. That is his standard and by that standard, he can say we are doing fine with north Korea. It is as simple as that.
Paradoxically, this also upsets Kim Jong-un. He believes he has provided President Trump with a political "win." Yet he has gotten nothing in return. He desperately needs sanctions relief not because he needs the money and resources but because he raised expectations among the elite and the military that he could "play" both Trump and moon and execute a long con which was to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. He has failed to do so and now he is under enormous internal pressure.
Kim Jong-un would only "jump at a deal" if the US lift sanctions. In fact, Kim will not meet with Trump unless he has an ironclad guarantee that Trump will get sanctions lifted. The only way we could get a deal would be if we provided significant concessions. Doing so would set back relations decades as it would provide to Kim that his blackmail diplomacy works and; therefore, he will continue to execute it (raise tensions and conduct provocations to gain political and economic concessions).
2. U.S. is ready to negotiate N. Korea's denuclearization: U.S. envoy
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 6, 2020
Alex Wong stated the facts. The US has been ready to conduct working level negotiations since June 2018 and the Singapore summit. The US has been ready to talk unconditionally. It is Kim Jong-un who has prevented any substantive working level negotiations. This is most likely because he believed, again, that he could "play" Trump and he could get a favorable deal by dealing directly with Trump.
I think it is fair to say the US wants a substantive deal. The US does not want a deal for a deal's sake. While I think Trump wants a deal, his statement reference the election is telegraphing his belief that a deal is not likely due to the election. I am certain our professional diplomats will advise that no deal be made unless there are first substantive working level negotiations to work one out.
The ball is in Kim Jong-un's court. He has failed his long con so far. He has not played Trump and Moon to get sanctions relief. He has not allowed substantive working level negotiations to take place. We need to play our long game, based on a solid ROK/US alliance and a deterrent posture, providing every opportunity for responsible negotiations but remaining focused on the only real solution to the nuclear threats and the crimes against humanity which is solving the "Korea question."
3. U.S. says N.K. must stop provocations, return to nuclear talks
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 6, 2020
Kim will only stop provocations when he knows they no longer work. This is one of the most positive aspects about the past two years: the fact the ROK and US have not lifted sanctions. I know this is a controversial statement but the longer we go without lifting sanctions the more we have a chance to wean Kim off of his dependency on blackmail diplomacy. We cannot go wobbly or get impatient and lift sanctions in the misguided belief that it will bring Kim to the table and cause him to negotiate responsibly.
4. N.K. leader orders special aid for Kaesong on coronavirus lockdown
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · August 6, 2020
The regime may be laying the groundwork to finally admit there is an outbreak and they will blame it on South Korea.
5. N.K. leader presides over party meeting, orders special aid for Kaesong
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 6, 2020
The buried lede is the establishment of a new department within the Central Committee of the Party "to study and research ways to radically improve the personnel affairs system of the Party." I wonder how this will align with the work of the Organization and Guidance department. Is something going on?
6. Ri Pyong Chol: Kim’s New Right Hand Man?
38north · by Markus V Garlauskas · August 5, 2020
You do not want to be called number 2 or a right hand man. You might not survive - ask Jang Song-taek.
Seriously, Kim Jong-un seems to have a plan and it is illustrated, as Markus notes, by the old adage that "personnel are policy."
7. 'October surprise' summit between U.S., N.K. unlikely: Moon's adviser
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · August 5, 2020
Moon Chung-in provides his forecast. But he is right and his skepticism is well founded because the US is unlikely to give the only concession that would bring Kim to a summit- a guarantee to lift sanctions.
Plus the more we talk about the less likely there can be a "surprise."
8. Burying their heads in the sand (The Moon Administration and US Troop Reductions)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Nam Jeong-ho · August 5, 2020
The author reads the tea leaves and the history and puts together a good circumstantial conspiracy theory based on the last three major withdrawals during the Nixon, Carter, and Bush43 administrations. He puts the onus on the Moon administration to prevent a dangerous withdrawal but criticizes members of the administration such as Lee In-young who says he "holds no views" on reduction or withdrawal of US troops.
9. North Korea Has Likely Been Able to Miniaturize Nuclear Weapons for Years
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · August 4, 2020
The author has a point. This is a key capability that the north has to achieve so it has certainly been working on it as a top priority.
But what this should give us is absolute clarity as to Kim Jong-un's intent. He has no plans to give up his nuclear program. This is not a surprise given the nature of the Kim family regime.
10. North Korea Sends Special Forces to Ryanggang Province Border With China
rfa.org · by Sewon Kim · August 3, 2020
1500 Special Forces? That is quite a number. Things must be really bad on the border. There is a lot to consider from this report in terms of potential internal instability.
11. North Korea’s Escalating Virus Response Raises Concerns
TIME.com · by Hyung-Jin Kim · August 6, 2020
At some point the regime will reach the breaking point and it will not longer be able to suppress the information about its coronavirus outbreak.
12. WHO says North Korea's COVID-19 test results for first suspected case 'inconclusive'
Reuters · by Emma Farg and, Josh Smith · August 5, 2020
Who did the WHO test? north Korea or the WHO?
13. Unification minister expresses regret over N.K's release of dam water
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · August 6, 2020
I think a little stronger words describing the regime's irresponsible action would be better than expressing regret. Again, this action highlights the nature of the Kim family regime and it is not a nature that seeks peace and reconciliation and coexistence with the South.
14.N. Korea pursues long-range nuclear missiles through 'deliberate testing program': Pentagon official
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · August 6, 2020
Good comments from Mr. Mercado. He rightly points out the north's aggressive testing program. Too often we focus on tests as "provocations" and for "messaging" and "signaling." We forget how important these tests are for advancing their programs and sometimes they are conducting tests simply to advance their programs while we look at every test as a message for us (and of course sometimes they are and often serve multiple purposes).
15. Kim Jong-un fury: North Korea launches attack over ‘bitter regrets’ towards US
Express · by Edward Browne · August 6, 2020
Again, no mention of our national security and defense strategies which describe Iran and north Korea as rogue powers. We should expect our leaders to sue the words of our strategic documents:
"We are rallying the world against the rogue regime in North Korea and confronting the danger posed by the dictatorship in Iran, which those determined to pursue a flawed nuclear deal had neglected."
"Three main sets of challengers - the revisionist powers of China and Russia, the rogue states of Iran and North Korea, and transnational threat organizations, particularly jihadist terrorist groups - are actively competing against the United States and our allies and partners.
"The scourge of the world today is a small group of rogue regimes that violate all principles of free and civilized states. The Iranian regime sponsors terrorism around the world. It is developing more capable ballistic missiles and has the potential to resume its work on nuclear weapons that could threaten the United States and our partners. North Korea is ruled as a ruthless dictatorship without regard for human dignity. For more than 25 years, it has pursued nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in defiance of every commitment it has made. Today, these missiles and weapons threaten the United States and our allies. The longer we ignore threats from countries determined to proliferate and develop weapons of mass destruction, the worse such threats become, and the fewer defensive options we have."
16. Trump’s South Korea bashing doesn’t strengthen Xi
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · August 5, 2020
Hmmm.. I suppose this is good news?
On a serious note when I talk to serious people in Korea they are adamant there is no choice between China and the US. They are firmly on the US side and not the Chinese side. But they also say we must respect the difficult position they are in since they are so economically intertwined.
This essay covers a lot of ground and is worth reading.
17. Laser beam and EMP launchers to fight against drones
donga.com · August 06, 2020
I wonder what an EMP launcher looks like.
18. $10 million in aid to North going to UN agency
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Shim Kyu-Seok
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