News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. President Moon express regret over N.K. not informing Seoul of dam discharge
2. Gov't Seeks to Punish Anyone Sending Leaflets to N.Korea
3. UN Report Underlines North Korea's Continuing Nuclear Ambitions
4. North Korea fears information the most, analyst says
5. U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises Stay Digital, as North Korean Threat Grows
6. Video Appears to Confirm Reports of Deadly Blasts in North Korea's Hyesan City
7. North Korea ships massive aid supplies to city with coronavirus scare, despite still claiming no cases
8. South Korean farmers bartering sugar for North Korean booze to bypass sanctions
9. The Repatriation of Ethnic Koreans in Japan: A Project of Deception
10. South Korea's Central Bank Report Exaggerates North Korea's Economic Growth
11. Seoul's 'Central Park' a step closer to reality with opening of Black Hawk Village
12. When Pyongyang says 'peace,' prepare the body bags
13. Commentary: South Korea and the US cannot see eye-to-eye on North Korea
14. Gov't Approves Massive Aid for N.Korea
15. The big lesson from South Korea's coronavirus response
16. Trump should recommence South Korea military exercises
17. North Korea Steps up Its War on COVID-19
18. South Korea approves human trial for Genexine's coronavirus treatment drug
19. US military coronavirus toll rises in South Korea but overall cases low
20. FDD | North Korean Cyber Espionage Campaign Seeks to Compensate for Air Power Vulnerabilities
1. President Moon express regret over N.K. not informing Seoul of dam discharge
en.yna.co.kr · by 이준승 · August 6, 2020
With all due respect to President Moon, he should be making a strong statement denouncing Kim Jong-un's irresponsible actions. Kim Jong-un does not share President Moon's vision of peace and co-existence. If he did and if he had any respect for South Korea he would have informed the South.
2. Gov't Seeks to Punish Anyone Sending Leaflets to N.Korea
This. Is. A. Mistake.
I am saddened to read this.
3. UN Report Underlines North Korea's Continuing Nuclear Ambitions
thediplomat.com · Bruce Klinger · August 7, 2020
Bruce clearly lays out what most of us believe.
4. North Korea fears information the most, analyst says
upi.com by Elizabeth Shim · August 6, 2020
Greg Scarlatoiu is exactly right about the power information. Video at the link.
5. U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises Stay Digital, as North Korean Threat Grows
WSJ · by Andrew Jeong · August 6, 2020
Someone needs to help this journalist with some facts. This exercise is always a command post computer simulation exercise that does not involve troops maneuvering in the field. That is how you train the ROK/US CFC HQ and the subordinate component HQ. Yes, the exercise in March was cancelled because of the coronavirus and that exercise is both a command post computer simulation followed by a field training exercise. But to say the rank and file soldiers have not experienced combined maneuvers in 2 years is not accurate. The journalist should ask about the tactical level training that takes place year around. Perhaps he should have checked with the Combined 2d Infantry Division to ask about their combined maneuver training.
Yes, there has been some degradation of readiness among the senior commands. But tactical training at various levels takes place year around.
What is very correct in this article is a reminder of how President Trump feels about these exercises (when he made the unilateral and uncoordinated decision to cancel the exercise in 2018 he called them ridiculous and expensive). But what is most important to understand is that the 2 years of cancelations, postponements, and adjustments to the exercise programs has not resulted in any reciprocity whatsoever from north Korea and there has been no change in regime behavior. What we should conclude from this is that we should no longer sacrifice readiness for the fool's errand of trying to accommodate north Korean demands. Regardless of what we do north Korea will complain is use it for propaganda purposes.
6. Video Appears to Confirm Reports of Deadly Blasts in North Korea's Hyesan City
rfa.org· by Yongjae Mok · August 5, 2020
Not as bad as Beirut of course but probably due to similar causes: incompetence and neglect.
7. North Korea ships massive aid supplies to city with coronavirus scare, despite still claiming no cases
foxnews.com · by Greg Norman
"Ultra-emergency state" sounds like the double secret probation of crisis management.
I think there must be an outbreak but the north Korean information control measures are still functioning well to prevent us from observing the indications and warnings of such an outbreak/humanitarian disaster.
8. South Korean farmers bartering sugar for North Korean booze to bypass sanctions
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin· August 6, 2020
Sugar for ginseng and liquor.
9. The Repatriation of Ethnic Koreans in Japan: A Project of Deception
NK Hidden Gulag · by Timothy Goo · August 6, 2020
I had no idea 93,000 Koreans in Japan were returned to north Korea and most originally came from the Southern part of Korea. This is another story that illustrates the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime.
10. South Korea's Central Bank Report Exaggerates North Korea's Economic Growth
38north.org · by William Brown · August 6, 2020
I do not think there is anyone outside of the Kim family regime who studies and knows more about the north Korean economy than Bill Brown.
11. Seoul's 'Central Park' a step closer to reality with opening of Black Hawk Village
Stars and Stripes · by Kim Gamel · August 6, 2020
My wife and I lived in Blackhawk for four years in the 1990s.
12. When Pyongyang says 'peace,' prepare the body bags
asiatimes.com · by Stephan Haggard and Liuya Zhang · August 7, 2020
Very interesting analysis. Hyperbolic headline aside (and I cannot believe Steph Haggard would offer it so it must be from an editor at Asia Times) this is worth reflecting upon. It is a very useful analysis of north Korean propaganda. I would associate myself with the authors' third hypothesis.
When I read the title I thought there would be a reference to the Korean War and not only the Armistice negotiations but also the run up to the war. We should recall before June 25, 2950 the north Koreans ceased all anti-South Korean propaganda and called for talks with the South at Kaesong. Analysts assessed the north might be ready to end the guerrilla warfare being waged (by both sides). They were right the north did want to end the guerrilla warfare. What they got wrong was the north wanted to shift to conventional war. But alas, this article does not address that but it is something we should keep in mind as to the nature of the Kim family regime and how it negotiates.
13. Commentary: South Korea and the US cannot see eye-to-eye on North Korea
channelnewsasia.com · by Khang Vu
This analysis is wrong. It is based on press reports and from those in South Korea who have avowedly anti-US bent who make statements in the media but have no idea how the ROK and US collaborate in this working group. Moon should "reform" the working group before rolling out new north Korean initiatives? Again, a statement like this reveals a lack of understanding of the working group, its intent and its effectiveness. Here is my assessment of the working group from a year and a half ago:
The fundamental issue for South Korea is that it is constrained due to UN sanctions and US law. The South wants to be able to engage without constraint as it did during the Sunshine Policy era when there were few sanctions in place. The working group is not an "approval" authority from the US side to all the South to engage. But it is the responsibility of the members of the working group to point out issues and prevent South Korea (and in particular ROK banks and financial institutions) from being put into a bind if they violate UN sanctions or US law. And the working group has no authority to waive US law. If the ROK violates the sanctions US law requires action. Sanctions and US law pre-date the working group. And the only way US sanctions can be lifted is for Congress to change the law. So it is not the fault of the working group if the ROKG wants to violate sanctions and the working group is not holding back ROK action. Its members likely only advise on the probable consequences which as an allied partner I think is the right thing to do. The real problem is the naive engagement and peace strategy of the Moon administration. But it is convenient and politically useful for some in the ROK to simply blame the working group.
14. Gov't Approves Massive Aid for N.Korea
english.chosun.com· August 7, 2020
15. The big lesson from South Korea's coronavirus response
Vox · by Mac Schneider · August 6, 2020
8 minute video at the link.
As I have spoken with government officials, they mention that the previous MERS (and SARS) outbreaks really made think about preparing for future pandemics. Most governments and bureaucracies do not seem to learn lessons and even if they do they rarely take sufficient proactive steps to be ready for the next time. I still think it was quite a coincidence the ROK government conducted a tabletop pandemic exercise in December. There was probably no better preparation for the crisis.
16. Trump should recommence South Korea military exercises
Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · August 6, 2020
Ahh.... the press and pundits. Mr. Rogan could not be more wrong. First, Ulchi Focus Lens and Uchi Freedom Guardian and now Dong Meng 20-2 have always been combined command post computer simulation exercises and not field training exercises. Yes, in the past there have been field training exercises conducted incidental to these exercises but these have always been "digital" (at least the 20 or so I have participated in since the 1980s).
Why is this so? Because the primary training "audience" is the ROK/US CFC headquarters and its subordinate components and staffs. A computer simulation exercise allows for more intense training of the commanders and staff to challenge their intelligence systems and communications and decision-making processes. They can conduct more scenarios and make more mistakes against a "thinking" enemy (humans who play the opposing force) who can challenge the defense plans as north Korea surely will. They could never get this training without the simulation and only by maneuvering troops. We accomplish the readiness requirements by conducting multi-echelon training is sometime simultaneous and sometimes disaggregated. What is most important is that despite the President's pronouncements about cancelling exercises (he was only referring to Ulchi Focus Lens in August of 2018) tactical "field" training for ROK and US forces has continued year around.
Mr. Rogan belittles combined command post computer simulation training because he has no idea how complex it is to command and control the ROK/US Combined Forces Command and its components. I recall statements from the past that COIN is the PhD level of war - that is bulls**t. Campaigning (which is what the ROK/US CFC must do) is the PhD level of war whether it is COIN or major theater war which is what conflict on the Korean peninsula will be. So the headquarters needs the military equivalent of PhD level education and training and that can only be achieved through computer simulation to allow the commanders and staff to train to the highest level to prepare for real war.
And make no mistake, ROK and US troops get plenty of muddy boots training - "slogging up a wet, muddy hill, finding the enemy under a forest canopy, and destroying him with airstrikes, artillery, and small arms fire" all year around. But that is not the purpose of the Dong Meng 20-2 combined command post computer simulation training. And lastly the greatest disrespect we could show that infantryman slogging up the hills in Korea would be to have an untrained and incapable higher headquarters. Without that well trained higher headquarters that soldier or Marine on the ground will never get the artillery or air support or medevac that he or she may need. Please Mr. Rogan do some research or talk to some of the professionals at the ROK/US Combined Forces Command to learn the realities of training at all levels.
17. North Korea Steps up Its War on COVID-19
thediplomat.com · by Gabriela Bernal · August 6, 2020
Things could really turn bad inside north Korea (if they have not already).
18. South Korea approves human trial for Genexine's coronavirus treatment drug
Reuters · by Sangmi Cha · August 7, 2020
Keeping our fingers crossed for all vaccine trials around the world.
19. US military coronavirus toll rises in South Korea but overall cases low
Stars and Stripes· by Kim Gamel · August 6, 2020
20. FDD | North Korean Cyber Espionage Campaign Seeks to Compensate for Air Power Vulnerabilities
fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · August 6, 2020
A very important essay from colleague Mathew Ha.
One interesting point that I am not smart enough to articulate concerns the F-35. I have heard air force pilots describe it as a computer with a plane built around it. It is not about its organic weapons or flying ability. What is unique about the F-35 is its networking capabilities to other aircraft, missiles, ground forces, etc. I am told it is a "software based" aircraft. It seems to me that if the nK hackers were good enough they would learn the software capabilities of the systems and try to hack into it to neutralize the computer capabilities of the F-35 and turn it from a smart aircraft into a "dumb plane." If you can defeat its software there is no need to shoot it down with air defense missiles or other aircraft. Maybe what is described below is "cyber reconnaissance by north Korea in an attempt to figure out how to penetrate the F-35 "network" and into the software. is this an asymmetric approach for Korean air defense operations. Their missiles and planes cannot effectively defend against ROK and US combined air power, especially the F-35s and F-22s.
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