News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Will North Korea opt for provocation on party foundation day?
2. North Korea's sabotage plots foiled as UK intelligence cracks Kim Jong-un's secret codes
3. Kim Jong Un fires top official while touring typhoon-stricken areas
4. New virus cases dip below 200 for 5th day; tougher virus curbs in greater Seoul extended
5. Mutually beneficial inter-Korean ties will help accelerate peace and nuclear talks: minister
6. Party members respond swiftly to N.K. leader's calls for recovery efforts
7. U.N. chief says diplomacy is 'only pathway' to sustainable peace and denuclearization
8. Navy upgrades command and control system (South Korea)
9. N. Korea sets up "strict security zones" on Sino-North Korean border
10. S. Korea to use ARF meeting to urge N. Korea to return to nuke talks
11. Head of Hyesan's Ministry of State Security office steps down
12. Korea’s social media penetration rate ranks third in world
13. North Korea to send only low-level envoy for UN General Assembly meetings
1. Will North Korea opt for provocation on party foundation day?
The Korea Times · September 6, 2020
As I think through the regime’s potential for limited use of force or non-kinetic provocations I think it is important to examine what might be the regime's objectives and intent.. Specifically, I have four questions:
1. What is the regime objective for the action?
2. What effect is the regime trying to achieve with the action? (What is the broader effect beyond the immediate objective? How does it fit into it’s strategy?)
3. How does the regime expect the ROK and US, individually or collectively through the alliance, to react to the action? Not what will we do, but what does the regime think we will do – too often, we answer this question with what we know or think we will do. But it is what the regime thinks that is important and we may have conditioned the regime to think certain ways based on our actions or lack of them.
4. How does the regime believe it can prevent escalation after it conducts a limited use of force? After all, by definition, limited implies preventing escalation.
Setting aside an accidental confrontation or miscalculation which can be hard to discern and is the cause of decision making paralysis – we wait to determine if the actions was accidental or deliberate. - e.g., DMZ exchanges or naval engagements in the West Sea the major objective for the limited use of force is to achieve some information and influence effect. A major part if not the major reason for any limited use of force is a Psychological Warfare objective. We must seek to understand that to be able to counter it or neutralize the effects.
2. North Korea's sabotage plots foiled as UK intelligence cracks Kim Jong-un's secret codes
Express · by Marco Giannangeli · September 6, 2020
Yes, this is from the Express. But if true, it is a fascinating story.
Excerpts:
“But one scrambled broadcast last week contained a message that will change the nature of how it issues commands for the foreseeable future.”
‘The message relayed information about the breaking of codes and instructed agents to simply ‘await further instructions’.”
“Western intelligence agencies believed they already possessed the key to Pyongyang's numbers-based code.”
“To MI6's surprise, however, the unidentified defector revealed that there was a second "code within a code" about which the West knew nothing.”
3. Kim Jong Un fires top official while touring typhoon-stricken areas
New York Post · by Tamar Lapin · September 6, 2020
What will happen to officials after this next Typhoon hits the north?
4. New virus cases dip below 200 for 5th day; tougher virus curbs in greater Seoul extended
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · September 7, 2020
The ROK government is being prudent. Lifting the measures too soon will likely cause a new rise.
5. Mutually beneficial inter-Korean ties will help accelerate peace and nuclear talks: minister
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 7, 2020
I think it is important to keep in mind that the Kim family regime is not interested in anything that is mutually beneficial with South Korea. For the regime, it is a zero sum game. The north wins, the South loses. When or if the north makes agreements it is because it sees an advantage and a move forward in its long con (concessions and sanctions relief while maintaining its nuclear and missile programs) to its ultimate strategic aim to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
6. Party members respond swiftly to N.K. leader's calls for recovery efforts
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 7, 2020
Of course. Failing to respond swiftly means a swift trip to a gulag for re-education.
7. U.N. chief says diplomacy is 'only pathway' to sustainable peace and denuclearization
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 7, 2020
But for that to be true, it means the Kim family regime wants a diplomatic solution. I do not think that is the case unless diplomacy means appeasement of the north and bringing the South under northern domination.
8. Navy upgrades command and control system
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · September 7, 2020
Are they doing the same for the other services and for a national military command and control system? And most importantly is the ROKG investing in the C4I capabilities that will provide the necessary C2 to support the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command?
9. N. Korea sets up "strict security zones" on Sino-North Korean border
dailynk.com · September 7, 2020
Shoot to kill without warning.
10. S. Korea to use ARF meeting to urge N. Korea to return to nuke talks
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · September 7, 2020
Best of luck to Minister Kang. I agree she has to try. But I am not optimistic that the north will respond favorably.
11. Head of Hyesan's Ministry of State Security office steps down
dailynk.com · September 7, 2020
Hyesan is probably one of the most troubled regions of north Korea (from the regime's point of view).
Note the corruption.
12. Korea’s social media penetration rate ranks third in world
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · September 7, 2020
UAE (99%)and Taiwan (88%) are number 1 and 2 and South Korea (87%) at number 3. Interesting.
Korea’s social media penetration rate ranks third in world
13. North Korea to send only low-level envoy for UN General Assembly meetings
nknews.org · by James Reinl · September 7, 2020
North Korea to send only low-level envoy for UN General Assembly meetings | NK News
September 07, 2020
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"Life is a daring adventure or it is nothing at all."
- Helen Keller
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- Aristotle
"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light."
- Plato