09/18/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. State Dept. not discussing pulling troops from Korea, U.S. diplomat say

2. North Korea preparing for a military parade, satellite images show

3.  Kim Jong Un could reveal terrifying ballistic missile at military parade

4.  Forget the Political Calendar: It’s Time for Another Trump-Kim Meeting

5.  N. Korea has 'small number' of nuclear weapons: U.S. general

6. Trump: Dennis Rodman is better at negotiating with Kim Jong Un than 'stiffs' from Harvard

7. New defense chief vows efforts for firm readiness posture for peace, OPCON transfer

8. Koreas mark Pyongyang summit anniversary amid standstill in ties, as Seoul seeks new momentum

9. COVID-19 Has Crushed Everybody’s Economy—Except for South Korea’s

10. In bumpy U.N. dealings, Trump found backing on North Korea, isolation on Iran

11. North Korea Returns Shipment of High-Quality Facemasks to China Amid Crackdown on South Korean Goods

12. North Korea Orders Drive to Instill Reverence For Kim Portraits After Image Found in Scrap Paper

13. How would Team Biden handle a showdown with North Korea?

14. Man admits to unlawfully supplying luxury goods worth nearly $580k to North Korea

15. Why Donald Trump’s North Korea Policy Is in Limbo

16. Moon says Korea peace possible without giving up hope for dialogue

17. North Korean Man In Malaysia Challenges US Extradition Bid

18. New ICBM-level storages witnessed at N. Korea’s parade training site

19. Kim Yo Jong tightens party membership requirements nationwide

20. Army unveils monument commemorating West Point graduates killed in Korean War

1. State Dept. not discussing pulling troops from Korea, U.S. diplomat say

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · by Ser Myo-Ja

A true statement I am sure. But what kind of discussions are taking place at DOD?

2. North Korea preparing for a military parade, satellite images show

Los Angeles Times · by Associated Press · September 18, 2020

Everyone loves a parade.  Except for those who have to go through the brutal rehearsals.  And nowhere are they more brutal than in north Korea.

3. Kim Jong Un could reveal terrifying ballistic missile at military parade

New York Post · by Jackie Salo · September 17, 2020

I believe that the north generally only shows off military equipment in these parades that has been tested and fielded or is ready for fielding.  Of course, as I will continue to emphasize the regime is masterful at denial and deception so we should be ready to see something.  And of course, this could just be a north Korean ratings ploy to gain more attention for the October 10th parade.  After all, north Korea is the ultimate reality TV entertainment.

4. Forget the Political Calendar: It’s Time for Another Trump-Kim Meeting

warontherocks.com · by Tongfi Kim · September 17, 2020

Danger Will Robinson.  Another proposal which gives Kim the win and endangers the US, the ROK, and Japan and only emboldens Kim Jong-un.

We should say no to this.  I wonder if north Korea produced a relatively large number of nuclear weapons just so that it could do this - trade a few nuclear weapons for sanctions relief.

In order to make a breakthrough, I recommend an exchange of a few North Korean nuclear warheads with partial lifting of economic sanctions, promoted as arms control or scientific cooperation. This is emphatically different from what the United States reportedly demanded at the 2019 Hanoi summit — the transfer of Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and bomb fuel to the United States. Surrendering the entirety of its nuclear arsenal is irrational for the North Korean regime, but Pyongyang can offer a small number of nuclear warheads without reducing its future bargaining power. According to a report of the U.S. Army in July 2020, North Korea is estimated to have 20 to 60 nuclear bombs and can produce six new devices each year.

Two points.  Kim will likely demand huge concessions just to come to talks.  He has received no benefits from his three previous meetings with Trump so he is unlikely to meet unless he has a guarantee of something significant up front before a meeting.

Second, on partial lifting of sanctions we should remember sanctions are in place because of Kim Jong-un's malign, illicit, and brutal behavior.    Which behavior do we want to condone with the lifting of sanctions?  Continued nuclear and missile development?  Global illicit activities (counterfeiting of money, medicine and cigarettes, drug trafficking) overseas slave labor, weapons proliferation, cyber attacks, and human rights abuses and crimes against humanity?  Kim can have any and all sanctions lifted if he simply complies with the requirements of the sanctions.  Why should we give him a pass and allow him to continue any or all of the above malign behavior?  Are we so foolish to believe that lifting sanctions is going to change Kim’s behavior and decision-making?  He will only conclude that his blackmail diplomacy works and instead of progress toward denuclearization we will see more threats, provocations, and demands.

5. N. Korea has 'small number' of nuclear weapons: U.S. general

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 18, 2020

30, 40, or 60 is a relatively small number compared to the 1000's we possess.  But even one or two can do tremendous damage.  And so much more than Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

6.  Trump: Dennis Rodman is better at negotiating with Kim Jong Un than 'stiffs' from Harvard

Washington Examiner · by Spencer Neale · September 17, 2020

I guess I should not be surprised but I have no words for this.

7. New defense chief vows efforts for firm readiness posture for peace, OPCON transfer

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · September 18, 2020

I hope the new MINDEF didn't say this and it is only the Yonhap lazy interpretation: "In his inauguration speech, Suh also vowed to strive for expediting the envisioned transfer of the wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean forces from Washington to Seoul based on the strong alliance with the United States."

There is no OPCON transfer from Washington to Seoul.  OPCON transition is going to take place with a change of command of the ROK/US CFC when a Korean general officer will assume command of the combined command. The combined command will continue to function under the strategic guidance and direction of the Military Committee which is made up of members of both nations' national command and military authorities.  The combined command now, and after the transition, is equally "co-owned" by both the ROK and US.  There is no transfer of OPCON from Washington and Seoul.

I do commend the MINDEF for walking the tightrope between Moon's demand for time based OPCON transition and professional requirements of a condition based transition.  Quotes: "Based upon the strong alliance, we should accelerate the OPCON transfer, which is the need of the times," Suh said. "We will try to meet conditions required for the transition by beefing up major defense capabilities and verifying those accumulated capabilities."  He is in a difficult position because he knows failure to meet the conditions will put the defense of the ROK at great risk but President Moon wants the transition expedited.

8. Koreas mark Pyongyang summit anniversary amid standstill in ties, as Seoul seeks new momentum

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 18, 2020

Kim Jong-un has not sincerely implemented the Pyongyang Declaration  and Comprehensive Military Agreement or any other one.  Key point: "There's no single step forward in (the implementation of) the agreement to activate the Inter-Korean Joint Military Committee, which is the core element of the Sept. 19 military accord," Park Won-gon, professor of international politics at Handong Global University, pointed out. "It's regrettable that there seems to be no big possibility, for now, of (the two sides) moving forward beyond some symbolic measures."

9. COVID-19 Has Crushed Everybody’s Economy - Except for South Korea’s

Foreign Policy · by Morten Soendergaard Larsen · September 16, 2020

We should have and could have learned a lot from South Korea.  But it is probably too late as the US has hardened into factions that will never accept the requirements necessary to manage the pandemic and keep the economy functioning.

10. In bumpy U.N. dealings, Trump found backing on North Korea, isolation on Iran

Reuters · by Michelle Nichols · September 18, 2020

It is an interesting comparison.

11. North Korea Returns Shipment of High-Quality Facemasks to China Amid Crackdown on South Korean Goods

rfa.org· by Jooho Kim · September 15, 2020

The regime will always bite the hand that could feed them.

12. North Korea Orders Drive to Instill Reverence For Kim Portraits After Image Found in Scrap Paper

rfa.org · by Myiung Chul Lee 

It is against the law to discard the newspaper with a picture of any of the Kims. You cannot deface or disrespect any image of the Kims.  I have wondered how they dispose of newspapers after they are read.

13. How would Team Biden handle a showdown with North Korea?

pri.org · by Patrick Winn

I think one thing we should expect if Biden is elected.  Kim will provide him with a welcome "gift" such as some kind of military provocation or weapons tests.  Expect something between Nov3 and January 20 or shortly after the inauguration.  That said, if Trump is re-elected we might see the same kind of "gift."  In either case, it will likely be Kim's attempt to reset relations on his terms.

14. Man admits to unlawfully supplying luxury goods worth nearly $580k to North Korea

straitstimes.com · by Shaffiq Alkhatib · September 17, 2020

A business opportunity that was too good to be true.

15. Why Donald Trump’s North Korea Policy Is in Limbo

The National Interest · by Yu Bin Kim · September 17, 2020

16.  Moon says Korea peace possible without giving up hope for dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 18, 2020

17. North Korean Man In Malaysia Challenges US Extradition Bid

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

18.  New ICBM-level storages witnessed at N. Korea’s parade training site

donga.com· September 18, 2020

19. Kim Yo Jong tightens party membership requirements nationwide

dailynk.com · by  Ha Yoon Ah· September 18, 2020

There is no more important quality or characteristic than the demonstration of personal loyalty to Kim Jong-un.  "“Following this, Comrade Kim Yo Jong ordered the Organization and Guidance Department [OGD] to ensure that the Party is made up of [only] the loyalist of members, and then the OGD recently issued a set of guidelines to Party committees and Party cell organizations nationwide on raising the standards for joining the Party.”"

20. Army unveils monument commemorating West Point graduates killed in Korean War

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · September 18, 2020

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