News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Legislation banning anti-North Korea leaflets new thorny issue between South Korea, US
2. A deep dive into N. Korea's new "anti-reactionary thought" law
3. North Korea's nuclear coercion as diplomatic statecraft - analysis
4. Defector Thae Yong-ho: Seoul's parliament 'capitulating' to North Korea
5. South Korea: promote human rights in North Korea
6. Defector activist mulls constitutional complaint over ban on anti-Pyongyang leafleting
7. N. Korea begins regular wintertime drills, no unusual signs detected yet: JCS
8. US military reports 33 new coronavirus patients in Japan and South Korea
9. Time to prepare for the post-Biegun era
10. Korea losing faith in Moon as Covid cases surge
11. Photo studios in Chongjin raided by the authorities
12. JoongAng-CSIS forum warns that North may provoke Biden
13. Anti-North Korea leaflet law faces backlash from within and outside South Korea
14. With year-end parties canceled, alcohol industry targets home drinkers
15. S. Korea to buy MH-60R Seahawk to boost Navy's anti-submarine capabilities
16. Train derailment in mid-November leads to hundreds of casualties
17. North Korea halts all public transportation outside of Pyongyang to stop coronavirus
18. North Korea vows merciless punishment for smugglers to stop COVID-19
1. Legislation banning anti-North Korea leaflets new thorny issue between South Korea, US
Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · December 14, 2020
The first crisis for the Biden administration in Korea may have to do with values and human rights differences between South Korea and the US. The fundamental question for the alliance is whether we going to return to an interest-based and values-based alliance—the shared values of freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economics, rule OF law, and human rights. This new law is in contravention to a number of these shared values.
Appeasing North Korea does not work. It has never worked. This is aptly called the "KIm Yo-Jong law," since it is a direct result of her threats in June.
But doesn't the ROK government see how this looks to its citizens and to the outside world? This is a major mistake and one that could do irreparable damage to the Moon administration (but hopefully South Korea and the alliance can recover from it).
2. A deep dive into N. Korea’s new “anti-reactionary thought” law
Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · December 15, 2020
What is the best action in support of the North's "anti-reactionary thought law?" South Korea's Kim Yo-Jong law outlawing leaflets sent to North Korea by escapees.
We should never forget the greatest threat to the Kim family regime is the Korean people in the North, armed with information and the truth about their plight and the outside world.
The timing of the South's anti-information law is very coincidental and appears to be in full support of the North's law.
The threat that information poses to the regime is why we recommended these efforts (via the 2019 FDD monograph, Maximum Pressure 2.0) in support of information and influence activities. Unfortunately, current ROK domestic politics prevents many of them.
The United States and South Korea should implement a comprehensive and aggressive IIA campaign in North Korea. The focus should be three-fold: create internal threats against the regime from among the elite, provide the second-tier leadership with alternative paths to survival, and prepare the Korean people for eventual unification under a United Republic of Korea. To do so, we recommend the following steps:
- Develop organizational infrastructure to facilitate IIA: The United States and South Korea lack a single organization to direct IIA against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should establish institutions that would work together to plan and shape combined IIA. Fortunately, as discussed earlier, the United States already has numerous tools at its disposal, such as the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Voice of America; and Radio Free Asia. The United States should centralize these activities under an oversight organization. This organization would coordinate all agencies and departments and work with non-government organizations. Under the Moon administration, there will likely be concerns that IIA could upset diplomatic conditions. Admittedly, an IIA campaign targeting Pyongyang could risk stirring additional short-term tensions with Pyongyang. But U.S. diplomats should remind their ROK counterparts that those tensions may ultimately forge a path to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea. U.S. diplomats also need to remind their South Korean allies that Seoul’s persistent use of concessions has not elicited progress with Pyongyang.
- Encourage Moon’s government to increase intra-Korean people-to-people exchanges: Washington should encourage intra-Korean engagement by sponsoring people-to-people educational and cultural exchanges. Such exchanges could expose North Korea’s intelligentsia and emerging elites to democratic concepts as well as personal relationships with South Koreans.
- Implement aggressive IIA targeting the North Korea regime: After building a baseline consensus, the United States and South Korea should implement increasingly aggressive IIA targeting the North Korean regime. These activities should inform North Koreans of their universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime is failing to respect. This will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime and give hope to the people living in the North. Alternate sources of information can put regime propaganda in perspective. This campaign could also help lay the initial groundwork for emergent leaders who could replace Kim and who might seek to unify with the South as equal partners under the values of individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, and a free market economy. At a minimum, this campaign could help persuade Kim that the status quo poses a greater threat than good faith negotiations with the United States and South Korea. The ultimate goal is to create internal divisions and threats that will influence Kim to denuclearize.
- Increase exposure of North Koreans to the outside world: IIA must exploit North Koreans’ growing access to DVDs, USB drives, and smart phones from outside the country. These media devices can carry content popular among North Koreans, such as South Korean dramas, which can implicitly help Koreans in the North better understand the difference between the regime they have and the government they deserve.
- Establish a Korea Defector Information Institute (KDII): There is no single organization in the United States or South Korea that harnesses the information of defectors to support IIA. If both nations worked together to establish a KDII, it could serve as a repository for defector information to inform policymakers, strategists, and those responsible for developing IIA themes and messages. This institute should utilize defector knowledge and advice in devising appropriate messages and communications techniques. It could also encourage North Koreans to defect, particularly members of Office 39 (also known as Department 39), who are knowledgeable of the Kim family regime’s finances.
- Provide military support to ROK-U.S. government programs for IIA: S. Psychological Operations (PSYOP) forces should be deployed on a permanent basis to support ROK PSYOP forces as part of a national-level alliance IIA campaign. ROK and U.S. PSYOP forces should advise and assist defector organizations to synchronize themes, messages, and dissemination methods to ensure unity of effort.
3. North Korea's nuclear coercion as diplomatic statecraft - analysis
Eurasia Review · Geopolitical Monitor · December 15, 2020
A very good and important essay. Note the discussion of the North Korean objective of unification. There should be no doubt about this objective and how the regime is using all means at hand to pursue this strategic aim. This essay describes in another way how I view the regime's strategy: it is a seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime.
Another name for coercion as diplomatic statecraft: blackmail diplomacy.
4. Defector Thae Yong-ho: Seoul's parliament 'capitulating' to North Korea
UPI · Elizabeth Shim · December 14, 2020
Note that the Institute of Corean American Studies (ICAS) will be hosting Thae Young-ho this Thursday evening at 7pm for a virtual seminar. You may register at this link.
These are my submitted questions for him:
- Can you provide recommendations to the ROK/US alliance and the international community about information and influence activities targeting the regime elite, the 2d tier leadership (those leaders outside the core elite but who possess military power and political influence when the regime becomes unstable) and the general populace of the North Korea?
- Specifically, what kinds of themes and messages will resonate with the elite, the 2d tier leadership, and the population and influence their behavior in a positive way to achieve ROK/US Alliance desired effects and objectives?
- What are the most effective means to transmit information?
- If you were to design an information and influence activities campaign, who would you target and what kind of influence objectives would you seek to achieve?
In my previous meetings with Thae, he has provided very important insights and information on influence operations and human rights in North Korea. I hope he will share some of those insights publicly.
5. South Korea: promote human rights in North Korea
Human Rights Watch · December 15, 2020
Yes, he should. But sadly, the suffering of the Korean people in the North is not part of his agenda. As a human rights lawyer, I would think President Moon would have taken a strong human rights approach toward North Korea. Unfortunately, his focus on "human rights" has been on developing the and supporting the narrative surrounding the democracy movement of the 1980s and specifically the Kawngju episode. I do not think he has ever done anything is his career concerning human rights in North Korea.
6. Defector activist mulls constitutional complaint over ban on anti-Pyongyang leafleting
Yonhap News Agency · 김승연 · December 15, 2020
Maybe this will be a wake-up call for the Moon administration. But based on past actions, I expect it to only double down on its mistakes.
7. N. Korea begins regular wintertime drills, no unusual signs detected yet: JCS
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · December 15, 2020
Please remember that for the past 2 plus years we have been tailoring ROK/US military training to support diplomacy. But North Korea has never reciprocated and continues to conduct its winter and summer training cycles. We should not sacrifice ROK/US combined military readiness in pursuit of the impossible objective of "appeasing" North Korea with reduced exercises and training in the hopes that it will positively affect North Korean decision making.
My PIR (priority information requirements) for the WTC: how much of the modern military equipment that we observed in the October 10th parade has been fielded to operational units? What units received the equipment? How is it being employed?
8. US military reports 33 new coronavirus patients in Japan and South Korea
Stars & Stripes · Joseph Ditzler · December 14, 2020
9. Time to prepare for the post-Biegun era
Dong-A Ilbo · Gi-Jae Han · December 15, 2020
There should be no doubt that Steve Biegun and his Korea time worked tirelessly to maintain the ROK/US alliance in the face of nearly impossible conditions posed by both the Kim family regime and the Moon administration's "world view" toward North Korea. This op-ed rightly recognizes those contributions and also that the professional diplomats in South Korea recognize and appreciate those contributions as well. But it also notes that the Moon administration and political leaders need to make changes in their policies.
10. Korea losing faith in Moon as Covid cases surge
Asia Times · Andrew Salmon · December 14, 2020
In President Moon's "defense," it is "normal" for Korean presidents to have significantly declining approval ratings in the latter years of their mandatory five-year, one-term presidency.
11. Photo studios in Chongjin raided by the authorities
Daily NK · Jong So Yong · December 14, 2020
Do not be misled by the title. This is about cracking down on information flow inside North Korea. The biggest threat to the regime is the Korean people in the North armed with information.
12. JoongAng-CSIS forum warns that North may provoke Biden
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · December 15, 2020
You can view the entire forum at this link.
13. Anti-North Korea leaflet law faces backlash from within and outside South Korea
Korea Times · Do Je-hae · December 15, 2020
Resistance to this terrible law both inside and outside Korea. It is too bad the Moon administration will not heed this criticism and likely will double down on it. The Korea Times strategically used the photo of Kim Yo-Jong with Moon and Kim and in the background to emphasize this is the "Kim Yo-Jong command law."
14. With year-end parties canceled, alcohol industry targets home drinkers
Korea Herald · Yim Hyun-su · December 15, 2020
This should not be a problem if you are like me and only drink on two occasions: alone or with someone.
But maybe home drinking will produce more moderate drinkers.
15. S. Korea to buy MH-60R Seahawk to boost Navy's anti-submarine capabilities
Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · December 15, 2020
This is more important for South Korea's defense against North Korea's submarine capabilities than building a nuclear powered submarine.
16. Train derailment in mid-November leads to hundreds of casualties
Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · December 15, 2020
Interesting that half the dead and injured were military personnel. Was this an accident or sabotage? If so, by whom? An indication of nascent resistance inside North Korea?
17. North Korea halts all public transportation outside of Pyongyang to stop coronavirus
Radio Free Asia · Jieun Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · December 14, 2020
Another indicator of the effects of COVID inside north Korea.
18. North Korea vows merciless punishment for smugglers to stop COVID-19
RFA · Jieun Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · December 14, 2020
Again, we should acknowledge the great work of RFA and VOA and their ability to bring us news about what is happening inside North Korea and, of course, provide this information to the Korean people in the North. The regime's Propaganda and Agitation department does not allow the North Korean "media" to report on what is happening inside North Korea, especially the effects of the draconian population and resources control measures that are ostensibly designed to mitigate the effects of COVID but which are really designed to the tighten the shackles that are oppressing the Korean people in the North.
"In Korea, the Government forces, which were armed to prevent border raids and to preserve internal security, were attacked by invading forces from North Korea....The attack upon Korea makes it plain beyond all doubt that communism has passed beyond the use of subversion to conquer independent nations and will now use armed invasion and war."
- President Harry Truman
“You must never be fearful about what you are doing when it is right.”
-Rosa Parks
"To the wrongs that need resistance,
To the right that needs assistance,
To the future in the distance,
Give yourselves."
- Carrie Chapman Catt