News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. North Korea's Economy Hit Harder Than It Has Been in Decades
2. South Korea's Zombie Companies Are Scarier Than the Movies
3. Japan-South Korea: The Limits of Outreach Without Trust
4. Does North Korea Have a Social-Distancing Problem?
5. South Korea's hiking culture reflects its social pressures
6. Report: North Korea's top diplomat 'out' at Pyongyang's politburo
7. Biegun conveyed Washington's concern over Seoul's anti-leaflet law
8. Daily virus cases above 1,000 for 4th day, concerns rise over hospital capacity
9. USFK ups antivirus scheme for all areas in S. Korea amid resurgent pandemic
10. Mystery Structure Appears in Kim Il Sung Square
11. New Evidence Suggests Kangson Is Not A Uranium Enrichment Plant
12. Ex-presidential candidate to announce bid for Seoul mayoral by-election
13. 'Corresponding measures desirable to complete NK denuclearization'
14. Anti-leafleting law runs risk of branding South Korea as human rights violator
1. North Korea's Economy Hit Harder Than It Has Been in Decades
WSJ · by Andrew Jeong · December 19, 2020
What has "saved" north Korea in the past has been the Sunshine Policy (Kim Dae Jung) and the Peace and Prosperity Policy (Roh Moo Hyun) 1997-2007 which allowed large amounts of financial aid to be transferred from South to north (to include some $5000 million just to hold the north-South Summit in 2000 resulting in. Nobel Peace Prize for Kim Dae Jung. The second thing that has helped to "save" north Korea was the failure of the Public Distribution System (PDS) and the rise of market activity that has led to the Dongju class (the "moneyed" class) and now some 400 plus markets throughout the north and flourishing black market and smuggling activities as well as a foreign currency trade. (as well as an unprecedented inflow of information and growth of intra-north Korean communications with the 6.5 million smartphones which is a key capability for market activity).
However, the conditions today are much different and the deliberate policy decisions are working hard to undo and destroy the societal resilience that has grown since the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996.
The Kim family regime's response to COVID has been to implement draconian population and resources control measures. These measures have shut down all legal trade with China as well as close the border to smuggling activities. The regime is trying to force an end to the use of foreign currency and is attempting to regain control not only control over currency but of market activity. And of course the regime is cracking down on information flow. Combined with the natural disasters of this summer. The reduced harvest due to the disasters resulting in severe food shortages. The regime's deliberate policy decisions and priorities were demonstrated in the October 10th military parade which the invest the regime has made in advanced weaponry to include a possible new ICBM and SLBM and a wide array of conventional military equipment. The regime allocated scarce resources to military procurement rather than the welfare of the people.
The regime has taken away the "safety valves" for the population and if there is a COVID outbreak the suffering will be on a scale greater than the Arduous March. And as I have emphasized repeatedly if there is a widespread outbreak within the military it could lead to catastrophic instability and potential regime collapse. The bottom line is the conditions today are potentially far worse than what we saw in 1994-1996 when we really were worried about regime collapse. I am Not predicting if or when the regime will collapse. My admonition is we must be observed for the indicators of potential collapse (Robert Collins' 7 Phases of Collapse and his indications and warnings that have long served the command in Korea as the foundation for observing the conditions). But I will make this prediction: If there is regime collapse it WILL be catastrophic and it would behoove us to be prepared for the possibility even while we must maintain the capability to "fight tonight" because the conditions that lead to regime collapse could lead to the rational decision by Kim Jong-un to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force as his only path to regime survival.
2. South Korea's Zombie Companies Are Scarier Than the Movies
WSJ · by Mike Bird· December 17, 2020
I worry about another IMF crisis as happened in 1997 in Korea (and SE Asia as well). The crisis then was double edged. It led to a lot of failed business and economic distress and suffering by the people. But it also demonstrated South Korea resilience and how a Korean national spirit led to a rapid recovery (South Korea was the first country to pay back 100% of its IMF loans). I recall South Korean citizens selling valuables to raise money to contribute to paying off the debt. It showed the spirit of the Han. (Han River not Han Chinese).
But is South Korea in for a harder time than the IMF crisis?
3. Japan-South Korea: The Limits of Outreach Without Trust
thediplomat.com · by Kimura Kan · December 18, 2020
Yes, trust is required. Along with leadership on both sides. Both Moon and Suga must agree to prioritize national security and national prosperity while they work to solve the historical issues.
Conclusion: If the Moon administration does want to improve relations with Japan, what should it do? First, it should demonstrate that it places more importance on Japan-Korea relations than on other issues and that it is working sincerely on settling the wartime labor issue, which has become the greatest obstacle to positive ties. To do this, instead of dispatching the head of the intelligence agency or members of parliament to conduct behind-the-scenes negotiations, senior officials from the South Korean government, including government leaders such as the president himself, should publicly share this position. The issue of historical awareness, a major stumbling block in relations between Japan and Korea, is one that concerns the Korean public, which is why past administrations have repeatedly chosen to nullify agreements that they had made, fearing public opinion. Can Moon ever take the risk of expressing to the Korean people the importance of relations with Japan and the need to settle the wartime labor issue? What is needed is not proposals but the exercising of leadership.
4. Does North Korea Have a Social-Distancing Problem?
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · December 19, 2020
north Korea is after all a gulag state and we know that prisons are breeding grounds for COVID transmissions due to the inability to implement proper mitigation measures. (okay that was a snarky comment about the gulag state).
The buried lede may be this statement form the CDC: The Centers for Disease Control says, in its most recent guidance, that North Korea has a "level 4," meaning "Very High Level of COVID-19 in North Korea." Travelers are cautioned to "avoid all travel to North Korea," and that "travel may increase your chance of getting and spreading COVID-19."
5. South Korea's hiking culture reflects its social pressures
The Economist· December 19, 2020
It is often hard to social distance on some mountain trails that are packed with hikers (yes, somewhat of an exaggeration but I was always amazed at the numbers of hikers on trails - and of all ages!)
6. Report: North Korea's top diplomat 'out' at Pyongyang's politburo
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim
He certainly fits the bill as representative of the evil nature of the Kim family regime:
“Ri made headlines in the South when he made incendiary remarks to a visiting South Korean delegation in 2018. Ri asked the South's business executives, including Samsung Electronics chairman Lee Jae-yong, whether the food served at a restaurant in Pyongyang was "making it down" their throats, using disrespectful language to refer to their anatomy.”
According to the Chosun, South Korean officials said they have determined Ri has been "eliminated" from the party committee, but the development still is being analyzed.
7. Biegun conveyed Washington's concern over Seoul's anti-leaflet law
donga.com· December 19, 2020
Yes, we are concerned. This is not an internal South Korea issue. It is a human rights issue and it is an issue affecting maximum pressure on the Kim family regime. It is an issue that will cause the regime to double down on blackmail diplomacy due to its perceived successful extortion act by Kim Yo-jong.
8. Daily virus cases above 1,000 for 4th day, concerns rise over hospital capacity
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 19, 2020
Hospital capacity is a concern everywhere.
9. USFK ups antivirus scheme for all areas in S. Korea amid resurgent pandemic
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 19, 2020
Thank you Yonhap. I assume this is in the Korean language press as well. It is important to inform the Korean people in the South about how USFK is responding to COVID, in solidarity with the ROK.
10. Mystery Structure Appears in Kim Il Sung Square
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · December 18, 2020
Parade prep for the 8th Party Congress that is expected next month? I leave it to the "squints" to assess and analyze.
11. New Evidence Suggests Kangson Is Not A Uranium Enrichment Plant
38north.org · by Olli Heinonen · December 18, 2020
Interesting. Olli knows his stuff. He spent a lot of time in north Korea.
12. Ex-presidential candidate to announce bid for Seoul mayoral by-election
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · December 19, 2020
13. 'Corresponding measures desirable to complete NK denuclearization'
The Korea Times · December 19, 2020
This is an unfair and mischaracterized misrepresentation of the US position: "The United States has demanded that North Korea dismantle its nuclear weapons program before expecting economic - or other - rewards, with Pyongyang rejecting what it called immediate and unilateral demands"
The US demands substantive working level talks and substantive action toward denuclearization before concessions are offered. The US is not going to give concessions simply for words from the regime. We have been Charlie Brown kicking and missing the football for decades. We do not want to get played again (cue The Who). north Korea must demonstrate a true commitment to denuclearization which requires substantive action. And we should never forget the words of President Moon Jae-in who sad in October of 2018 that sanctions should not be lifted until the north Korean nuclear program is dismantled past the point of no return.
The problem with the corresponding measures proposal is that the north never provides the corresponding measures. We give concessions and the regime walks away or doubles down on blackmail diplomacy.
14. Anti-leafleting law runs risk of branding South Korea as human rights violator
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · December 16, 2020
Yes it does.
And worse. It runs the risk of being called an appeaser of the existential threat to the Korean people in the South. It runs the risk of being accused of giving into Kim Yo-jong's extortion and blackmail diplomacy.
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"All politics is based on the indifference of the majority."
- James "Scotty" Reston
"No man has the right to be ignorant. In a country like this, ignorance is a crime.If a man is going to vote, if he's going to take part in his country and his government, then it's up to him to understand."
- Louis L'Amour
"Respect for ourselves guides our morals; respect for others guides our manners"
- Laurence Sterne