News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. S. Korea to allow troops, citizens working for USFK to get COVID-19 vaccinations
2. N.K. leader helms politburo meeting to prepare for party congress in early January
3. 5 N.K. defectors face forcible repatriation after arrest in China: UN human rights office
4. Experts mixed on North Korean leader's messages in congress
5. KATUSA troops to be first Koreans to get vaccinated
6. North Korea can change - but only if information gets in
7. How can a divided America hope to build peace on the Korean peninsula?
8. Report: North Korea cracks down on foreign currency transactions
9. US Must Commit to Arms Reduction If It Wants North Korea to Do So
10. Activists in South Korea file petition against anti-leaflet law
11. South Koreans lose faith in promise of improved human rights in the North: survey
12. North Korean soldier defects with weapon and ammo across Sino-North Korean border
13. US-North Korean Dialogue at 'Crossroads,' Analysts Say
14. N. Hamgyong Province intensifies efforts to prevent rice from being taken out of rural towns
15. South Korea: New infections above 1,000 for 2nd day, variant cases rise to 5
16. Why it's getting harder to escape from North Korea
17. Kim Yo Jong set to be second-in-command of N. Korea
18. Moon names new justice minister, mulls Blue House reshuffle
19. 6 countries provide $10 million in food aid to North Korea this year: UN
1. S. Korea to allow troops, citizens working for USFK to get COVID-19 vaccinations
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · December 30, 2020
I would recommend that all members (Korea and US personnel) of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters as well as all the combined component headquarters such as the Combined Force Air Component Command at Osan AB. All combined headquarters that work together on a daily basis should be vaccinated. If you want to be ready to fight tonight then all combined personnel need to be vaccinated because it is the ROK/US CFC that is the command that will "fight tonight." USFK is simply the force provider to the ROK/US CFC. It is the ROK/US CFC that is charged by both nations to deter north Korea, defend South Korea, and defeat the nKPA should it attack the South.
2. N.K. leader helms politburo meeting to prepare for party congress in early January
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · December 30, 2020
Early January...What will be the date? And will Kim make a New Year's Speech?
I cannot wait to read the 'spin" on the "innovative achievements and progress" of the 80 day campaign.
3. 5 N.K. defectors face forcible repatriation after arrest in China: UN human rights office
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 30, 2020
China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses and crimes against humanity.
4. Experts mixed on North Korean leader's messages in congress
The Korea Times · December 30, 2020
Kim will keep us guessing.
5. KATUSA troops to be first Koreans to get vaccinated
The Korea Times · December 30, 2020
We should be vaccinating all members of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters, ROK and US military personnel, not just KATUSAs assigned to USFK. (KATUSA - Korean Augmentee to the US Army - a program that dates back to the Korean War).
We also have to have some concern about the message sent by vaccinating KATUSAs. There has long been the perception that KATUSAs come from families of wealth and influence and they use their positions to get their sons assigned as KATUSAs rather than as conscripts in the regular ROK military. There is the perception that life as a KATUSA is much better than as a regular conscripted ROK soldier. This has the potential to stoke arguments about class divisions in the ROK military,
6. North Korea can change - but only if information gets in
Financial Times · by Andrei Lankov · December 29, 2020
I recall hearing Andrei speaking at a conference about the importance of information and telling us that he is a success story for VOA, Radio Free Europe and the BBC . The information from those sources helped him to decide to defect from the Soviet Union. A key point that he made that always sticks with me is that the information from these sources was trusted.
We should also note that Andrei has experience in north Korea.
7. How can a divided America hope to build peace on the Korean peninsula?
SCMP · by Mark Tokola and Juni Kimn · December 29, 2020
A couple of very interesting rhetorical questions.
Conclusion:
“What does this mean for ongoing threats such as the one posed by North Korea? From Pyongyang’s perspective, the partisan divide in the US reduces the pressure to negotiate. Kim Jong-un would have reason to doubt whether any US promise or reprimand intended to encourage the elimination of his weapons of mass destruction would be carried through.
And it would not be just North Korea that would doubt our commitments. Regional partners essential to engagement with Pyongyang such as South Korea, China and Japan would also wonder about coordinating with Washington in case they are wrong-footed amid the partisan shift in US foreign policy every four years.
America’s current hyper-partisanship may make it quixotic to hope for a bipartisan foreign policy, even though it would promote our national interest. Maybe the best we can hope for is to choose a few key areas in which both Democratic and Republican parties might engage in their own quiet diplomacy to settle on a common approach before advancing. It would be a start.”
8. Report: North Korea cracks down on foreign currency transactions
upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · December 28, 2020
This is one of the most important actions taken by the regime to sustain its control over the population and markets. I believe it will eventually blow back on the regime.
9. US Must Commit to Arms Reduction If It Wants North Korea to Do So
truthout.org · by Hyun Lee · December 28, 2020
One of the most naive OpEds I have read recently. It is based on a complete misunderstanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
10. Activists in South Korea file petition against anti-leaflet law
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · December 29, 2020
Can popular support against the law be generated or will it only come from activists which the Moon administration can ignore?
11. South Koreans lose faith in promise of improved human rights in the North: survey
SCMP· by John Power · December 30, 2020
We must never forget that Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people living in the north more than he fears the US and South Korea.
Kim must demy the human rights of the Korean people in order to remain in power. We can expect no voluntary change from him because to do so puts him at great personal risk.”
12. North Korean soldier defects with weapon and ammo across Sino-North Korean border
dailynk.com · December 30, 2020
Just one? Acting alone? It is when we start seeing small units defect we will not the three military chains of control are breaking down. Note the political officer's conduct (one of the three chains of control).
And there is a lot more to this article (landmines on the border and what appear to be "friendly fire" incidents).
13. US-North Korean Dialogue at 'Crossroads,' Analysts Say
voanews.com · by Jason Strother
Top-down or bottom-up, the onus remains on Kim Jong-un. Does he sincerely want to negotiate?
Key points:
“Stephen Biegun, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State and envoy to denuclearization talks with the north, underscored some of these unfulfilled ambitions in December during what was likely his swan song visit to Seoul.
“You might wonder if I am disappointed that we did not accomplish more over the past two years. I am,” he said during a speech at a local think tank, according to State Department transcripts.
“Despite setbacks, disappointments, and missed opportunities over the past two years, I believe no less today than the day I first took on this responsibility that the vision President Trump and Chairman Kim have shared for the Peninsula is possible, and that we are not done,” he said.
But North Korea is showing no sign that it is ready to resume dialogue with the United States; it has spent much of this year in a self-imposed quarantine, locking down its borders to almost all foreign trade and humanitarian assistance to shield itself from the pandemic. And now faced with change in U.S. leadership, Pyongyang has yet to acknowledge President-elect Joe Biden’s victory in the November polls and the loss of its former negotiating partner in the White House.”
14. N. Hamgyong Province intensifies efforts to prevent rice from being taken out of rural towns
dailynk.com· by Jong So Yong · December 30, 2020
I don't think we can imagine the suffering and desperation among the Korean people living in the north.
15. South Korea: New infections above 1,000 for 2nd day, variant cases rise to 5
en.yna.co.kr · by 최경애 · December 30, 2020
16. Why it's getting harder to escape from North Korea
BBC · by News
A 7 minute BBC video at the link. Some very useful statistics, anecdotes, and information on escapee operations and the situation in the north.
It is worth the 7 minutes to watch this.
17. Kim Yo Jong set to be second-in-command of N. Korea
donga.com · December 30, 2020
The most dangerous position in north Korea is to be designated the "number 2." But it will be interesting to see if there is some from the 8th Party Congress that changes the north Korean constitution and party charter to allow Kim Yo-jong to have such a role.
18. Moon names new justice minister, mulls Blue House reshuffle
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja
19. 6 countries provide $10 million in food aid to North Korea this year: UN
The Korea Times · December 30, 2020
Why turn down aid from South Korea through the World Food Program?
I think the simple answer is the Kim family regime wants to deal directly with South Korea and not through the World Food Program or any other international organization. The regime wants to be able to execute its political warfare strategy against South Korea. The recent response to the Kim Yo-jong threats and destruction of the Liaison building at Kaesong which resulted in the passage of the new anti leaflet law illustrate the regime's strategy.. Its strategy consists of subversion of the ROK and coercion/extortion and blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions. Accepting money from the WFP does not help advance the regime's strategy.
Furthermore, the regime is not interested in aid to the Korean people in the north. It wants any funds coming to north Korea to go straight to the Kim family regime's "royal court economy" so that it can use the funds to keep the regime elite satisfied and for the development of its nuclear weapons and missiles. It will accept aid as it is doing here but it does so reluctantly and in the hopes that it can eventually support its political warfare strategy or at least help maintain some stability within the population.
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