News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. N. Korea holds military parade, showcases new SLBM
2. Seoul's top nuke envoy holds phone talks with Biegun after N.K. party congress
3. New virus cases in 500s for 4th day in sign of downturn in infections (South Korea)
4. Kim Jong Un Unveils New Submarine Missile Threat as Trump Exits
5. Chinese Military Expert Claims Taekwondo Is Chinese Because China Invented Korea
6. N.K. signals room for improvement in inter-Korean relations at party congress: ministry
7. North Korea Is the Top Threat for 2021, Finds CFR Survey
8. North Korea No Longer Poses a Threat, So Says Trump Administration
9. South Korea's Moon Lays Out Agenda for the Remainder of His Term
10. North Korea's foreign propaganda set to play a more important role
11.HRW: North Korea used COVID-19 restrictions to step up control
12. Biden's pick for Asia policy likely to seek stronger regional alliances to check China
1. N. Korea holds military parade, showcases new SLBM
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 15, 2021
The buried lede is Kim Yo-jong is wearing a matching leather coat with her brother (but not a furry hat).
Although we should be skeptical, but showing us the new SLBM may be an indicator that a test is coming to welcome the new Biden Administration. But as I wrote yesterday, because of COVID and the inability to conduct meetings (whether a summit or working level talks), Kim may refrain from raising tensions or conducting a test or a provocation because he will not be able to achieve the desired effects immediately. Then again ,KJU has conducted shaping operations over a long period of time and he could have already begun his major shaping operation to influence the new Biden administration. We are just in the middle of such an operation.
2. Seoul's top nuke envoy holds phone talks with Biegun after N.K. party congress
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · January 15, 2021
The US Korea team keeps on working. Biden would have done well to ask Mr. Biegun to stay on to continue to work on the Korea problem.
3. New virus cases in 500s for 4th day in sign of downturn in infections (South Korea)
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · January 15, 2021
The numbers are looking a little better.
But South Korea (and Asia writ large) has another upcoming holiday that could cause a rise in cases:
4. Kim Jong Un Unveils New Submarine Missile Threat as Trump Exits
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · January 15, 2021
The question is whether these are operational? Surely more testing is required. Another question is when we will see the tests?
5. Chinese Military Expert Claims Taekwondo Is Chinese Because China Invented Korea
koreaboo.com · January 14, 2021
This is another reason why many Koreans do not like China.
6. N.K. signals room for improvement in inter-Korean relations at party congress: ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · January 14, 2021
I am sorry. This seems to be delusional spin. It really is a leap of logic after listening to all the statements from the 8th Party Congress, Kim Jong-un's speeches and capped off with Kim Yo-jong's remarks to think the north is signaling for improved north-South relations.
That said, the only signal the regime appears to be sending about improved relationships is that they can improve only on the north's terms and that requires complete appeasement by the South. The north's statements place all the blame on the South and say that change must come from the South. Without the South capitulating to the north there is no room for improvement. The paradox is that if the South does give in to the north's demands it will not result in an improved relationship. It will result in the regime doubling down on its political warfare strategy, long con, and blackmail diplomacy and will significantly increase the security risk to the South.
7. North Korea Is the Top Threat for 2021, Finds CFR Survey
cfr.org · by Matthias Matthijs
Very interesting.
Key finding:
Likelihood: High; Impact: High
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- North Korea's further development of nuclear weapons or ballistic missile testing, precipitating heightened military tensions on the Korean Peninsula
Here is the link to the results of the survey.
I disagree with this. I think a disruptive cyberattack is a greater threat.
8. North Korea No Longer Poses a Threat, So Says Trump Administration
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · January 14, 2021
Yes, I agree there was a paucity of information about north Korea in the just declassified Indo-Pacific strategy. And I agree the articulated end state was insufficient. However, I don't think that means the administration thinks nK no longer poses a threat. My guess is there is likely a classified north Korean strategy that has not been declassified that provides a thorough assessment of the full range of the nK threat from nuclear to conventional to cyber to proliferation and all the asymmetric threats the regime poses.
9. South Korea's Moon Lays Out Agenda for the Remainder of His Term
thediplomat.com · by Troy Stangarone · January 14, 2021
Conclusion: Moon Jae-in came into office in the shadow of the Park Geun-hye impeachment, promising economic inclusion and better relations with North Korea. When he leaves office in May of 2022 much of his legacy will be shaped by how well his administration is able to manage South Korea's economic recovery from COVID-19 and set the economy up to be globally competitive in the post-pandemic period. While North Korea and economic inclusion haven't left the agenda, the pandemic will remain the priority.
10. North Korea's foreign propaganda set to play a more important role
northkoreatech.org · by Martyn Williams · January 14, 2021
Oh the irony. As the ROK passses a law to limit information and influence activities that upset Kim Yo-jong and her brother in north Korea, the regime's Propaganda and Agitation department is modernizing and growing its propaganda programs.
11. HRW: North Korea used COVID-19 restrictions to step up control
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · January 14, 2021
Absolutely correct. We saw this happening a year ago. As bad as and as dangerous as COVID is, especially if there is an outbreak in north Korea, KJU has exploited it as an opportunity to implement tighter control over the Korean people living in the north. The only thing he fears more than the US and COVID is the Korean people.
12. Biden's pick for Asia policy likely to seek stronger regional alliances to check China
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · January 14, 2021
Excerpts:
"The U.S. position has long been that its trilateral cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo has not been optimized due to an unsatisfactory relationship between the allies. The return of Campbell might suggest he would work to bring them closer," he added.
Campbell is known as a key architect of the Obama-era "re-balancing" policy toward the Asia-Pacific, which was aimed at keeping an increasingly assertive China in check by strengthening regional alliances, its military presence and multilateral institutions on security and economic matters.
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In the "strategic equation" of war there are "four factors - combat, economic, political, and psychologic - and that the last of these is coequal with the others."
- U.S. Army General Staff, April 1918
"A well-organized intelligence service ... publishes estimates of the military, economic, political, and psychological status of [active and potential enemies, allies, and neutrals]."
- Alexander E. Powell, The Army Behind the Army, 1919
"With absolutely no apologies to Leon Trotsky: America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but they are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them - namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations."
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