News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. N.K. envoy says strengthening of defense capabilities aimed at opening peace era
2. Gyeonggi governor asks U.S., UN for understanding (on ROK anti-leaflet law)
3. Hearing on Seoul's leaflet ban to open soon: US congressman
4. PPP wants probe of nuke plant for North allegation
5. 4 U.S. B-52H bombers deployed to Guam
6. Kim Jong-un's wife has now not been seen in public for more than a year
7. Pressure vs. Dialogue: What North Korea Policy Will Biden Pick?
8. In photos: The life of a North Korean defector
9. To Succeed on North Korea, Convince Kim He is Safer Without Nukes
10. South Korea in final stage of assembling first prototype of indigenous fighter jet
11. New virus cases dip below 400, tougher virus curbs extended
12. America's North Korea Strategy Has Failed. What Will Biden Do?
13. Microsoft Believes DPRK-Linked Hackers Used Chrome Zero-Day
14. Judge Rejects Virgil Griffith's Motion to Dismiss Charges of Aiding North Korea
15. Complaints over noise in S. Korea spike amid Covid-19
1. N.K. envoy says strengthening of defense capabilities aimed at opening peace era
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 29, 2021
Peace through strength. They are finally paying attention to Ronald Reagan.
On a serious note,, this is something we very much need to pay attention to. If there was to be an end of war declaration or some kind of peace regime we would still have the 4th largest army in the world postured offensively along the DMZ posing an existential threat to the ROK. These kinds of statements indicate there would be no confidence building measures or reductions in force posture along the DMZ. While the Moon administration and many progressives in the South would be rejoicing at the realization of Moon's peace and reconciliation vision, the Kim family regime would e rejoicing because of the success of its political warfare strategy and the advantage it has provided the north to reach its objective which is to dominate the South and the bring the rule of the entire peninsula under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
2. Gyeonggi governor asks U.S., UN for understanding (on ROK anti-leaflet law)
As much as I disagree with the law and think it is a major strategic national security mistake, I think it is important to examine the ROK rationale.
First and foremost, this seems to be about a "threat to life' and "threat to property." There are 1.12 million South Korean residents near the DMZ. Some of them have also consistently called for a stop to leaflet drops since the North Korean firing of anti-aircraft rounds in 2014 to shoot down balloons carrying leaflets. The 2014 incident is one of the only incidents I recall where this has happened. I do not think there has ever been any loss of life due to leaflet operations. But as I have said the way to protect citizens and property is not through appeasement of the north which will only invite more threats and blackmail diplomacy from the Kim family regime.
The Moon administration defends its human rights approach by arguing along these lines: Every year, the ROK government formulates plans to promote North Korean human rights and is making multi-faceted efforts policy-wise to resolve humanitarian issues involving separated families, South Korean prisoners of war, and abductees and to raise public awareness about the importance of improving human rights conditions in North Korea. Color me skeptical.
The Moon administration also makes the case the leaflet law is in keeping with agreements between the South and north. They have repeatedly agreed to stop mutual slander and defamation and ban the scattering of leaflets, starting from the July 4 South-North Korea Joint Statement (1972) to the Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation Between the South and the North (1991) and to the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula (2018). I respect the ROK for trying to maintain the moral high ground here and they could do this by helping the escapees to take a more professional and sophisticated approach to information and influence. There is no need to slander and defame Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong. All they need to do is simply provide information and news, and the truth. There is no need for insults and derogatory attacks against the north. In fact one of the most powerful propaganda tools employed lately was the Netflix K-drama "Crash landing On You" that portrayed the north Korean People's Army soldiers as human beings and not ugly automatons and monsters. According to escapees one of the reasons for its powerful positive influence in the north was because of that and when I asked former north Korea soldiers how they thought current north Korean soldiers are reacting to the K-drama they said they desire to come to the South even more than did before.
The Moon administration compares their actions to US actions and legal rulings. While guaranteeing the full exercise of freedom of expression as stipulated in the Constitution of the ROK, the amendment (law) puts limitations to the minimum extent necessary to protect people's lives and safety and in a way that also conforms to the U.S. Supreme Court rulings. They will cite Ward v. Rock Against Racism (1989): The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that restrictions of freedom of expression are permissible so long as they are without reference to the content of the regulated speech, narrowly tailored to serve a significant governmental interest, and leave open ample alternative channels for communication of the information. I am far from a legal scholar and while this may hold water legally I still think despite the apparent legality it is a strategic national security error because it is appeasing north Korean demands based on threats -it is giving in to coercion/extortion or blackmail diplomacy. And Kim Yo-jong and her brother andteh regime should be expected to double down on its blackmail diplomacy to support its political warfare strategy.
In addition, the ROK government argues the amendment does not run counter to the U.S. Government's human rights policies that seek to enhance access to information for people living in repressed societies such as a socialist state. The ROK Government argues is of the same view that it is important that North Koreans have access to information and that it is necessary to bring about positive changes to North Korean society by promoting it. Korea is also striving to have external information flow into the North in various ways - for instance, Korea's public broadcaster KBS is running 'Korean National (Hanminjok) AM Radio' channel transmitted to the North. The ROK government also argues Ø we should consider the fact that, even without leaflet drops, the North Korean society can already easily access South Korean TV series and movies through 6 million-plus mobile phones, 400-plus street markets (known as Jangmadang), and information exchanges in areas bordering China. Fundamentally the ROK government argues it is their basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects. I do strongly agree with the ROK Government's basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects. However, I would also argue that the ROK government (with the help of the US and escapees from the north) must aggressively embrace their responsibility to get information into the north and use all means available to do so, despite north Korean regime opposition. And the ROK government could help the escapees with their messaging and shift from the blatant anti-north Korea derogatory and insulting rhetoric to more effective messaging. We shouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. There is too much good being done by the escapees and they could do much more with government and international help.
The answer to this issue is not to pass a law banning leaflets. it would be for the ROK, with US support, to adopt a sophisticated and holistic approach to information and influence activities. They should help the escapees with their mission and give them support and advise them on how to shape their activities to maintain the moral high ground and act in keeping with north-South agreements. They would maintain the human rights high ground by helping the Korean people in the north gain access to information that is denied by the regime.
Here are the recommendations my colleague Mathew Ha and I made in our Plan B strategy for north Korea (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/)
The United States and South Korea should implement a comprehensive and aggressive IIA campaign in North Korea. The focus should be three-fold: create internal threats against the regime from among the elite, provide the second-tier leadership with alternative paths to survival, and prepare the Korean people for eventual unification under a United Republic of Korea. To do so, we recommend the following steps:
- Develop organizational infrastructure to facilitate IIA: The United States and South Korea lack a single organization to direct IIA against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should establish institutions that would work together to plan and shape combined IIA. Fortunately, as discussed earlier, the United States already has numerous tools at its disposal, such as the State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Voice of America; and Radio Free Asia. The United States should centralize these activities under an oversight organization. This organization would coordinate all agencies and departments and work with non-government organizations.
Under the Moon administration, there will likely be concerns that IIA could upset diplomatic conditions. Admittedly, an IIA campaign targeting Pyongyang could risk stirring additional short-term tensions with Pyongyang. But U.S. diplomats should remind their ROK counterparts that those tensions may ultimately forge a path to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea. U.S. diplomats also need to remind their South Korean allies that Seoul's persistent use of concessions has not elicited progress with Pyongyang.
- Encourage Moon's government to increase intra-Korean people-to-people exchanges: Washington should encourage intra-Korean engagement by sponsoring people-to-people educational and cultural exchanges. Such exchanges could expose North Korea's intelligentsia and emerging elites to democratic concepts as well as personal relationships with South Koreans.241
- Implement aggressive IIA targeting the North Korea regime: After building a baseline consensus, the United States and South Korea should implement increasingly aggressive IIA targeting the North Korean regime. These activities should inform North Koreans of their universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime is failing to respect. This will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime and give hope to the people living in the North. Alternate sources of information can put regime propaganda in perspective.
This campaign could also help lay the initial groundwork for emergent leaders who could replace Kim and who might seek to unify with the South as equal partners under the values of individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, and a free market economy. At a minimum, this campaign could help persuade Kim that the status quo poses a greater threat than good faith negotiations with the United States and South Korea. The ultimate goal is to create internal divisions and threats that will influence Kim to denuclearize. - Increase exposure of North Koreans to the outside world: IIA must exploit North Koreans' growing access to DVDs, USB drives, and smart phones from outside the country.242 These media devices can carry content popular among North Koreans, such as South Korean dramas, which can implicitly help Koreans in the North better understand the difference between the regime they have and the government they deserve.243
- Establish a Korea Defector Information Institute (KDII): There is no single organization in the United States or South Korea that harnesses the information of defectors to support IIA. If both nations worked together to establish a KDII, it could serve as a repository for defector information to inform policymakers, strategists, and those responsible for developing IIA themes and messages. This institute should utilize defector knowledge and advice in devising appropriate messages and communications techniques. It could also encourage North Koreans to defect, particularly members of Office 39 (also known as Department 39), who are knowledgeable of the Kim family regime's finances.
- Provide military support to ROK-U.S. government programs for IIA: S. Psychological Operations (PSYOP) forces should be deployed on a permanent basis to support ROK PSYOP forces as part of a national-level alliance IIA campaign. ROK and U.S. PSYOP forces should advise and assist defector organizations to synchronize themes, messages, and dissemination methods to ensure unity of effort.
3. Hearing on Seoul's leaflet ban to open soon: US congressman
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 31, 2021
Note Josh Stanton's legal assessment on the ROK government comparing their law to US legal rulings.
Critics also dispute past cases that the government has cited as precedents for the ban.
"There was a Supreme Court ruling (favoring a ban) in 2016. But the court was not speaking of an outright ban on leafleting. It discussed adding rules on the leaflets' content or distribution, which is nothing like the complete ban we see now," said Chang Young-soo, a professor of constitutional law at Korea University.
Joshua Stanton, a Washington-based lawyer who served as a member of the US Army Judge Advocate General's Corps in Korea from 1998 to 2002, said Seoul's interpretation of an American law on censorship was wrong.
"The Blue House cites Schenck, a century-old decision allowing authoritarian wartime censorship of anti-draft speech. Schenck is one of the most discredited decisions in American legal history. ... The Supreme Court finally overturned it in 1969."
4. PPP wants probe of nuke plant for North allegation
PPP= People Power Party. (not the paycheck protection program).
Excerpts:
Joo Ho-young, the floor leader of the PPP, urged in a Facebook post Sunday that President Moon address the North Korea nuclear power plant allegation, adding that if such an explanation is not made, "the truth must be revealed through a special probe and a parliamentary inspection."
He asked, "What is the idea, trying to shut down nuclear power plants in South Korea and build a nuclear power plant in the North?"
Broadcaster SBS first reported last Thursday evening that the deleted Energy Ministry documents recovered by prosecutors included files on a North Korea nuclear power plant construction plan.
Among the 530 documents deleted in December 2019, restored by prosecution, there were reportedly 17 files concerning North Korea created in 2018. Those documents were stored inside a folder entitled "60 pohjois." Pohjois is a Finnish world for North.
5. 4 U.S. B-52H bombers deployed to Guam
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 31, 2021
The South Korean press keeps close tabs on the deployment of US strategic assets.
We should call the B-52 the "reinforcer." As in "These strategic deterrence missions reinforce the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region," We should think about how the B-52 reinforces the rules-based international order.
6. Kim Jong-un's wife has now not been seen in public for more than a year
dailystar.co.uk · by Joshua Smith · January 30, 2021
Hmmm... I wonder which analyst has responsibility for tracking her. Must have been tough for the last year at intelligence updates. "Nope. Still no sign of her. I don't know where she is or what has appended to her."
The buried lede is KJU's son who may be 11 years old. How old will he have to be to become a boy king to succeed his father? What will be the impact on succession and Kim Yo-jong (KJU's sister)?
7. Pressure vs. Dialogue: What North Korea Policy Will Biden Pick?
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · January 30, 2021
Why do the pundits always make this a binary choice? Why can't we think both/and rather than either/or. Our both/and proposal based on realistic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime is here. It is Plan B for north Korean strategy. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/
I would be cautious about this conclusion. Seoul must be well aware the Biden administration's priorities must be on US domestic issues: COVID and the US economy, but that does not mean that the administration's Korea team will not be working hard on the strategy review and developing new policy and strategy for north Korea. I can guarantee they have a sense of urgency.
Conclusion: Just as importantly for Seoul, will the Biden administration approach North Korea with a sense of urgency? Or will the country be a secondary priority? All evidence so far points to the latter.
8. In photos: The life of a North Korean defector
By Jeon Heon-Kyun
A dozen photos at the link. I think this conclusion is something we should all reflect upon and respect: "After almost 10 years in South Korea, he is satisfied that he sacrificed his 53 years, including his military career, of life in North Korea now that he and his family can enjoy the happiness of leading life in a free country."
9. To Succeed on North Korea, Convince Kim He is Safer Without Nukes
The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · January 30, 2021
We make a similar argument in our Plan B recommended strategy here:
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/
However, we argue that it is only a threat from - the elite and the military - that may cause Kim to consider denuclearizaing. Kim raised (unrealistic) expectations) in 12018 that he could play Trump and moon and get sanctions relief from both while keeping his nuclear program. He has failed to get sanctions relief and this has undermined his legitimacy among the elite and the military. escapees tell me this is the biggest failure in the Kim family regime by any of the Three Kims. If he is unable to "play" the Biden administration (which I do not think he will be able to do successfully) the internal pressure will grow and he will be faced with internal threats. It is this kind of internal pressure that has the best chance of changing Kim's calculus. If we appease Kim or give him concessions with sanctions relief he will judge his political warfare strategy successful, he will have the support of the elite and the military and he will double down on his strategy to achieve domination of the peninsula.
10. South Korea in final stage of assembling first prototype of indigenous fighter jet
The Korea Times · January 31, 2021
11. New virus cases dip below 400, tougher virus curbs extended
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 31, 2021
12. America's North Korea Strategy Has Failed. What Will Biden Do?
The National Interest · by Hazel Smith · January 31, 2021
So, Professor Smith thinks appeasement will work. How about executing a superior political warfare strategy with a long-term objective of solving the "Korea question?"
I think the same argument can be made against an appeasement strategy as she makes against a pressure strategy in her conclusion. Her strategy is one based on hope over experience. We have seen what happened with the 10 years of the Sunshine Policy and the Peace and Prosperity Policies of the Kim and Roh administrations as well as the peace at any cost vision of the current Moon Administration.
Conclusion: In the end, the Biden administration can keep doing what every other administration has done since George W. Bush in the expectation that hope will triumph over experience. Or it can ditch the clichés and get real in dealing with North Korea.
13. Microsoft Believes DPRK-Linked Hackers Used Chrome Zero-Day
MakeUseOf · by Gavin Phillips · January 31, 2021
Beware the Kim family regime's "all purpose sword" of cyber.
14. Judge Rejects Virgil Griffith's Motion to Dismiss Charges of Aiding North Korea
CoinDesk · by Muyao Shen · January 30, 2021
Excerpts:
Griffith's team has argued that first amendment rights protected him and that he did not render North Korea "services" since he received no compensation for the speech.
"The failure to allege that Griffith was paid a fee by the DPRK does not render the indictment defective," Castel wrote. "The indictment alleges an object of the conspiracy was 'to provide services to the DPRK.' This is sufficient and encompasses the provision of useful labor or human effort whether or not compensation was contemplated."
The U.S. State Department banned all U.S. citizens from traveling to North Korea without express permission in 2017. According to today's ruling, Griffith's request was initially rejected by the State Department, but later granted by the DRPK UN mission in Manhattan after he sent copies of his CV, passport, and explained his desire to attend the conference.
15. Complaints over noise in S. Korea spike amid Covid-19
straitstimes.com · by Chang May Choon · January 31, 2021
COVID is changing so many lives in so many ways - some of course worse than others.
"Discourse and critical thinking are essential tools when it comes to securing progress in a democratic society. But in the end, unity and engaged participation are what make it happen."
- Aberjhani, Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays
"To vastly improve your country and truly make it great again, start by choosing a better leader. Do not let the media or the establishment make you pick from the people they choose, but instead choose from those they do not pick."
- Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem
"Government is a system of morality developed by philosophers and refined by mercenaries."
- Alex Stein