News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. N. Korea beefs up missile units, special forces over past years: defense ministry
2. FM nominee Chung rejects allegations of push to help build nuke power plant in N. Korea
3. Blinken says U.S. looking for ways to move N. Korea denuclearization forward
4. Energy ministry unveils document to calm dispute over N. Korea reactor plan
5. No country can survive alone
6. JCS chiefs of Korea, U.S. agree on OPCON goals over phone
7. US may take two-track approach to North Korea issue
8. KBS seeks to open Pyongyang bureau: report
9. Nuclear plant row may increase US concerns over inter-Korean projects
10. South Korea "downgrades" Japan's status in defense white paper
11. North Korea's latest show of strength is meant to hide its weaknesses
12. The fallacy of North Korean collapse
13. Moon's nuclear phaseout policy eroded by suspected reactor project
14. DPRK: Pursue accountability for human rights violations, UN report urges international community
15. Denuclearization of North Korea is possible
1. N. Korea beefs up missile units, special forces over past years: defense ministry
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · February 2, 2021
We will be discussing the ROK Ministry of National Defense's white paper for the next few days.
Defintely some key – and controversial – points…
2. FM nominee Chung rejects allegations of push to help build nuke power plant in N. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · February 2, 2021
I wonder how much damage this controversy will cause and how long it will be in the news.
3. Blinken says U.S. looking for ways to move N. Korea denuclearization forward
Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · February 2, 2021
Both/and versus either/or. But the Biden administration isn’t going to simply embrace the Moon administration's vision for peace at any cost.
4. Energy ministry unveils document to calm dispute over N. Korea reactor plan
Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · February 1, 2021
Will this calm the controversy?
5. No country can survive alone
Dong-A Ilbo · February 2, 2021
An important historical analogy. The ROK needs the alliance.
6. JCS chiefs of Korea, U.S. agree on OPCON goals over phone
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · February 2, 2021
This will continue to be a source of friction. But if the Defense Ministry wants to make combined exercises negotiable with North Korea, there will be insufficient training of the theater HQ to meet the conditions for the OPCON transition process to progress.
7. US may take two-track approach to North Korea issue
Korea Times · Do Je-hae · February 2, 2021
But the policy review must be conducted and completed. There is impatience in South Korea for understanding the way ahead and some of the ROK actions are starting to put the Biden administration in a box (e.g., Minister Suh's comments about negotiations with the North over combined exercises as well as other ROKG engagement proposals). We do have a timing problem now. The Biden administration is just getting on its feet while the Moon administration is running out of time. We really only have about the next 6-7 months, because by the fall, the South will be decisively engaged with the presidential election process. The Biden administration will want to act with deliberate speed and take a long-term view while the Moon administration is ready to act with great haste.
8. KBS seeks to open Pyongyang Bureau: report
Korea Times · Park Ji-won · February 2, 2021
Well, this could be interesting (and potentially useful) but of course controversial. It would be useful if it is in support of a superior form of political warfare. But we should be under no illusion about the fantasy of this aim (while it is a nice overt, public objective, it is not based in reality).
9. Nuclear plant row may increase US concerns over inter-Korean projects
Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · February 2, 2021
If the information was shared, it would reduce the friction. But the proposal illustrates the two different views the ROK and US hold about the nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives. This issue must be worked out soon and the alliance must go forward with sufficiently aligned strategic assumptions about the regime.
10. South Korea “downgrades” Japan’s status in defense white paper
Kyodo News · February 2, 2021
Again. The ROK should be better than this. MND has succumbed to political pressure from the Blue House. And, of course, North Korea is not an "enemy" again either.
11. North Korea’s latest show of strength is meant to hide its weaknesses
Business Insider · February 1, 2021
Yes, but. The Kim family regime has been "winning," or at least surviving, the poker game with a pair of 2s for years.
I agree that Kim is in a relatively weak position due to the strains of the triple whammy (sanctions, COVID response, and natural disasters) combined with his poor policy decisions and priorities.
But I also think his actions are not merely to cover weakness but to support his political warfare strategy. Despite his weakness, he continues to be on the offensive from a political warfare and blackmail diplomacy perspective. He is trying to shape the environment the conditions.
12. The fallacy of North Korean collapse
38 North · Sang Ki Kim & Eun-Ju Choi · February 1, 2021
Look, if North Korea collapses, it will be catastrophic. It will not be benign and the conditions that lead to regime collapse can also lead to the regime making the decision to execute its campaign plan to ensure survival. Too often analysts overlook this fact when they want to pooh-pooh collapse analysis.
Of course, there is no analysis of what may cause collapse, especially the governing effectiveness of the party and the regime or the coherence and support of the military. Instead, it rehashes the bankrupt ideas that people think the collapsed economy and horrendous humanitarian conditions will lead to regime collapse.
13. Moon’s nuclear phaseout policy eroded by suspected reactor project
Straits Times · February 2, 2021
This is an example of the contradictions of many of the Moon administration policies. It wants to eliminate nuclear power in the South and with that will go the South's nuclear expertise. How will it be able to build a nuclear power plant in North Korea?
14. DPRK: Pursue accountability for human rights violations, UN report urges international community
United Nations (OHCHR) · February 2, 2021
Yes. And it is time for the Biden administration to appoint a special envoy for human rights in North Korea.
Human rights is a national security issue in addition to a moral imperative.
The full 15-page report can be accessed here.
15. Denuclearization of North Korea is possible
38 North · Joseph R. DeTrani · February 1, 2021
I certainly hope Ambassador DeTrani is right. I say pursue denuclearization but have a plan B to deal with the worst cases. Give Kim every opportunity to denuclearize but not through concessions or appeasement (which will only embolden him).
Although I am sure it plays to Kim's vanity, I do not think he will ever be a Deng or Gorbachev.
“Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves.”
- Carl Jung
“Read, read, read. Read everything -- trash, classics, good and bad, and see how they do it."
- William Faulkner
"... there’s an enormous difference between democracy promotion by coercive and non-coercive means. Voice of America broadcasts and the National Endowment for Democracy cross international borders in a very different manner than the 82nd Airborne Division does."
- Joseph Nye