News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Moon, Biden to map out 'comprehensive' N. Korea strategy together
2. [ANALYSIS] 'Moon, Biden urged to narrow differences on North Korea'
3. Moon, Biden plan to strengthen alliance in dealing with North Korea
4. Joint strategy on North: Allies should cooperate for regional peace
5. Moon gets phone time with Joe Biden at last
6. Moon, Biden signal fresh restart of peace process on Korean Peninsula
7. S. Korea, U.S. discussing how to hold combined exercise amid pandemic: defense ministry
8. Pentagon: Military readiness is the number one priority
9. Iran to Pay UN Dues with Money Frozen in Korea
10. North Korea's Systematic Rights Violations May Amount to Crimes Against Humanity, UN Says
11. North Korea to receive nearly 2 million Covid-19 vaccine doses from WHO
12. N. Korea to convene congress of largest youth association to support party decisions
13. Defector says North Korea 'popular uprising' likely
14. South Korea's military has big problems that are much closer to home than North Korea
15. Sydney man accused of trying to broker North Korea missile sales spoke of connection to Kim Jong-un, court told
16. Secret inter-Korean nuke cooperation rumors officially blasted
17. US Forces Korea to ease coronavirus restrictions for some troops on the peninsula
18. Fewer N.Koreans Escape During Lockdown
1. Moon, Biden to map out 'comprehensive' N. Korea strategy together
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · February 4, 2021
Finally they have their phone call. That is good news. I am gratified to hear they want to map out an alliance strategy. Now the real work begins.
Beware the different timelines for both administrations: Biden: long term - Moon: achievements necessary by fall in time for the next election cycle.
The critical action required for an effective comprehensive north Korean strategy is to get the strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime sufficiently aligned.
Next is to determine what is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, serve, and advance alliance interests in Northeast Asia.
Once agreement can be reached on these two critical tasks the ways and means of a comprehensive strategy can be laid out.
Start by answering the 5 key questions:
1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?
2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?
3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)
4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
My personal bias: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
2. [ANALYSIS] 'Moon, Biden urged to narrow differences on North Korea'
The Korea Times · February 4, 2021
The single most important difference is the strategic assumption about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. These must be sufficiently aligned (yes I am beating a dead horse here and I will continue to do so until we get this right). If we can get these assumptions right all else will fall into place.
3. Moon, Biden plan to strengthen alliance in dealing with North Korea
upi.com· by Thomas Maresca · February 4, 2021
Every time I read that leaders want to strengthen the alliance I always think: Have any leaders ever said they want to weaken the alliance?
4. Joint strategy on North: Allies should cooperate for regional peace
The Korea Times · February 4, 2021
It is good to see the Korea Times editorial board and other media and pundits call for a joint (combined) strategy toward north Korea.
Note some of the key points of alliance friction: "But it is also true that the two countries face some thorny issues such as defense cost-sharing for the upkeep of American troops here and Seoul's bid to take over wartime operational control of its troops from the U.S. military. These issues can be tackled smoothly if both sides make compromise to boost mutual interests. It is also worth noting that Moon and Biden shared the view that an improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan is pivotal to solidifying trilateral security partnerships. We hope the U.S. president will play a certain role in helping Seoul and Tokyo mend their estranged ties over historical issues such as wartime sex slavery and forced labor."
5. Moon gets phone time with Joe Biden at last
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Ser Myo-Ja and Yoo Jee-Hye
This is how the Koreans view it. The late phone call is interpreted by some as a slight. Not the comment that neither the White House nor the Blue House statements mentioned China.
We should remember that the new SECDEF and new SECSTATE made phone calls relatively soon to their Korean counterparts. And we should not forget that President Biden wrote one OpEd in the foreign press before the election and that was in the Korean media which should indicate the importance he places on Korea.
6. Moon, Biden signal fresh restart of peace process on Korean Peninsula
koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · February 4, 2021
I wonder what the laughter was all about.
Key points:
“Most notably, they reaffirmed their shared goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, pledging to promptly draw up a joint strategy on the North Korea issue.
Moon stressed joint efforts to advance the peace-building process, while Biden praised Seoul’s efforts so far, adding that it is important for the allies to maintain a shared stance on the matter.
They also agreed to ramp up efforts to improve Seoul-Tokyo relations as part of building stronger trilateral ties.
...
Concluding their conversation, the leaders agreed to hold summit talks as soon as possible once the coronavirus situation is stabilized, citing the value of a face-to-face meeting.
Many expect positive synergy between the two liberal leaders, who have made issues like climate change and human rights central to their platforms. Since the administrations of former President Kim Dae-jung and President Bill Clinton in 1998-2001, it is the first time in two decades that the two nations have had liberal presidents at the same time.”
7. S. Korea, U.S. discussing how to hold combined exercise amid pandemic: defense ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 4, 2021
We did a good job in August when there were no cases of COVID among the ROK/US CFC headquarters staff and components.
That said we should have been vaccinating all members of the combined staffs, ROK and US personnel, a month ago to ensure all have vaccinations well before the exercises begin.
There is a key question that should be asked regards this excerpt: "Since 2018, South Korea and the U.S. have either canceled or scaled back joint drills to back diplomacy with North Korea." What benefits has the alliance derived from scaling back or posting, or cancelling exercises for the past two years?
8. Pentagon: Military readiness is the number one priority
donga.com· February 4, 2021
If deterrence of war, defense of the ROK, and defeat of the nKPA should it attack is the mission the ROK and US governments have given the ROK/US Combined Forces Command how could readiness of ROK and US combined force not be the top priority? They do have to be ready to "fight tonight."
Of course, as I have written, if we truly want to be ready we would have already administered COVID vaccinations to all military personnel in the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters and the combined component HQ.
9. Iran to Pay UN Dues with Money Frozen in Korea
english.chosun.com· February 4, 2021
Hmmm...."blackmail diplomacy?"
10. North Korea's Systematic Rights Violations May Amount to Crimes Against Humanity, UN Says
voanews.com · By Lisa Schlein
May amount to? I think the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry was pretty clear with its recommendation to refer Kim Jong-un to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.
11. North Korea to receive nearly 2 million Covid-19 vaccine doses from WHO
straitstimes.com · February 4, 2021
Enough for the elite but what about the other 23 million Koreans in the north?
12. N. Korea to convene congress of largest youth association to support party decisions
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 4, 2021
Mobilize the youth for propaganda purposes.
13. Defector says North Korea 'popular uprising' likely
There is so much to parse on this.
No one should get their hopes up and think this could be a benign event. It could be catastrophic if it occurs. Which is why we must be paying close attention to the indications and warnings and dusting off the contingency plans.
Recall back in the 1990's the DCI said north Korea would attack the south, collapse/implode or there would be peaceful unification. Marcus Noland said it could (and did) also "muddle through." (https://t.co/htVh0whVxh?amp=1) Of course, it did muddle through for a number of reasons to include all the aid it received from the Sunshine Policy and Peace and Prosperity from 1997-2007 (which allowed it to detonate its first nuclear device in 2006). Note to analysts: always include muddle through as a possible course of action.
We have to observe for the indicators of instability. The conditions in north Korea could be brewing the perfect storm.
As an example, there are reports north Korea has 24 COVID-19 quarantine facilities for the military. This is a very important indicator. I think we can assess the regime is very concerned about a COVID outbreak within the military (as am I). I hope we are surveilling and assessing the activity at these facilities.
It may be time to begin to review plans for north Korea instability and regime collapse. Recall the definition of regime collapse that Bob Collins and I developed for the original CONPLAN 5029 planning: "Loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime/party combined with loss of coherency and support of the military."
The regime will collapse when the regime/party can no longer govern across the north from Pyongyang combined with the breakdown of the military (and its three chains of control - military, political, and security) so that the military can no longer support the regime. This leads to uncertainty and complexity about what can happen next
Let me reprise this article in which Bob Collins and I discuss north Korean contingencies to include regime collapse (and Bob lays out the 7 phases of regime collapse).
“When North Korea Falls”
The furor over Kim Jong Il’s missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea’s catastrophic collapse. How the regime ends could determine the balance of power in Asia for decades. The likely winner? China”
ROBERT D. KAPLAN
OCTOBER 2006 ISSUE
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/
Here is a link to my 1996 Monograph following the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996
“The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military”
https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf
14. South Korea's military has big problems that are much closer to home than North Korea
Business Insider · by Benjamin Brimelow
I would just offer whatever happens on the Korean peninsula will require a huge commitment of manpower. Any contingency from war to regime collapse to post conflict/collapse stability operations to dealing with resistance and political violence in the north will be manpower intensive.
This is one of the great benefits of the UN Command. It provides the opportunity and capability for the international community to commit manpower that could be decisive for the long term success on the Korean peninsula.
15. Sydney man accused of trying to broker North Korea missile sales spoke of connection to Kim Jong-un, court told
The Guardian · February 3, 2021
This is the first report I have seen on this incident. It does seem rather farfetched though in today's networked world of internet communications it may be possible.
I think if the prosecutor rests the case on confirmation from north Korea that this accused knows Kim Jong-un or any senior north Korea official, the case will fail. north Korea will not cooperate to corroborate the prosecutor's allegations.
That said if I were advising the prosecution, I would contact north Korea escapees/defectors who once worked for the regime in Department or Office 39. They may be able to corroborate the allegations. It is possible the accused was dealing with brokers and himself acting as middleman to try to arrange deals.
But based on this article alone it would seem to me the accused may be delusional and acting out fantasies on the internet. I would need more information to make a more informed judgment.
16. Secret inter-Korean nuke cooperation rumors officially blasted
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 3, 2021
I do not think this issue will be going away soon.
17. US Forces Korea to ease coronavirus restrictions for some troops on the peninsula
Stars and Stripes· by Matthew Keller · February 3, 2021
18. Fewer N.Koreans Escape During Lockdown
english.chosun.com · February 3, 2021
The regime's draconian population and resources control measures are having an effect.
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He had asked his father to pray for him, "Not for my safe return, that wouldn't be fair. Just pray that I shall do my duty...never be a coward...and have the strength, courage and understanding of men. Just pray that I shall be adequate."
- Chaplain Clark Poling (one of the Four Chaplains)
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- John Adams, The Works Of John Adams, Second President Of The United States
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