News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Between Seoul and Sole Purpose: How the Biden Administration Could Assure South Korea and Adapt Nuclear Posture
2. NK leader blasts self-protectionism in assembly
3. Iran and North Korea Resumed Cooperation on Missiles, UN Says
4. Trump's failure is Biden's chance on North Korea
5. N. Korea continues wintertime drills, no unusual moves ahead of late leader's birthday: JCS
6. North Korean hackers stole more than $300 million to pay for nuclear weapons, says confidential UN report
7. New FM confident about coordinating with U.S. over N.K. nuke issues
8. New foreign minister beats drum of peace with North
9. Ministry hopes for early resumption of Kaesong complex as it marks anniversary of shutdown
10. S. Korea's top nuke envoy asks for Russia to play role in advancing peninsula peace efforts
11. Seoul's calls for concessions to N. Korea may create tension with US: CRS
12. Reports: North, South Korea officials secretly met in Vladivostok in 2019
1. Between Seoul and Sole Purpose: How the Biden Administration Could Assure South Korea and Adapt Nuclear Posture
warontherocks.com · by Toby Dalton · February 9, 2021
Very interesting alliance analysis and a very sobering conclusion:
“The potential for a future South Korean nuclear weapons program is not new, though the stresses on U.S. security alliances as a primary means of preventing future proliferation are greater now. After four years of Trump's alliance policies, and in light of deep American political polarization, there are undeniable and growing incentives for U.S. allies to begin to hedge against a perceived decline in American credibility to carry through on security commitments. Allied hedging could drive efforts to strengthen defense capabilities independent of the United States, which may intrinsically help ease alliance anxieties. Yet, it could also cause U.S. allies to demand ever more nuclear signals of assurance in ways that complicate U.S. efforts to deter adversaries while avoiding conflict commitment traps or aggravating regional security dilemmas. South Korea is an important test case for the Biden administration to strike this balance. It is unlikely to be the only, or the last, such case for Washington to manage.”
2. NK leader blasts self-protectionism in assembly
koreaherald.com · by Kim So-hyun · February 9, 2021
I guess Kim Jong-un is railing against his own "deep state." Or maybe bureaucracies create the same problems everywhere.
Excerpts:
“Kim "sharply denounced" the passiveness and self-protectionism shown by state agencies as they set their goals, and the participants "seriously blamed themselves for failing to meet the high expectations of the party and the people," the KCNA said.
Calling for strong investment in the metalworking and chemicals industry, which he said were the "centric ring of the people's economy," Kim demanded expansion of steel materials and chemical fertilizer production, and set this year's targets for railroad transport, construction materials, light industries and commerce.”
3. Iran and North Korea Resumed Cooperation on Missiles, UN Says
Bloomberg · by David Wainer · February 8, 2021
Resumed? What evidence has there been that it ever halted? I think a more appropriate question for Iran and north Korea is along the lines of "when did you stop beating your wife?"
I will defer to those who know a lot more about north Korean proliferation to Iran (e.g., Dr, Bruce Bechtol). But let me make a few points (which I have learned from Bruce). And a key point Bruce has drilled into me is that if you see it in north Korea you will eventually see it in Iran.
4. Trump's failure is Biden's chance on North Korea
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 9, 2021
More from Moon Chung-in, Do we have talks for talks sake? What is the long terms strategy? What are the fundamental assumptions? What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, sustain, and advance ROK/US alliance interests? And are we really going to base a strategy on Moon's assumption that Kim Jong-un wants to denuclearize and is willing to negotiate sincerely to do so?
What fantasy novel is this derived from?
5. N. Korea continues wintertime drills, no unusual moves ahead of late leader's birthday: JCS
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 9, 2021
Good to see it acknowledged that north Korea is conducting its annual winter training cycle even while it criticizes the alliance and while those within the alliance would be willing to negotiate away ROK/US combined readiness training in the naive hope that the north will respond favorably (while it brings its forces to the. highest state of readiness at the optimal attack time in March).
6. North Korean hackers stole more than $300 million to pay for nuclear weapons, says confidential UN report
CNN · by Richard Roth and Joshua Berlinger
Anyone surprised by the regime's use of its "all purpose sword." I am happy to see the UN panel of experts is willing to expose this.
7. New FM confident about coordinating with U.S. over N.K. nuke issues
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · February 9, 2021
I will be frank, Mr. Foreign Minister. If you are unwilling to address the vast gap in strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime coordination is going to be difficult.
8. New foreign minister beats drum of peace with North
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim
Unfortunately, the pursuit of "peace at any cost" will not ensure the security of the Republic of Korea.
9. Ministry hopes for early resumption of Kaesong complex as it marks anniversary of shutdown
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 9, 2021
Is this another fantasy? Notwithstanding Kim Yo-jong's order for the destruction of the liaison building last summer, we should also remember why the KIC is so important to Kim Jong-un - it resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars going directly to the royal court economy of the Kim family regime.
10. S. Korea's top nuke envoy asks for Russia to play role in advancing peninsula peace efforts
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 9, 2021
Likely a pro forma request or does it indicate a shift in South Korean policy? (I think not).
11. Seoul's calls for concessions to N. Korea may create tension with US: CRS
koreaherald.com · February 9, 2021
The most excellent Congressional Research Service gets it. I am most concerned that this is the biggest problem for the alliance (the assumptions about the nature and objective of the KFR).
Here is a link to the CRS report. This short routine two-page report (updated regularly) provides a very useful summary of the key issues in the alliance.
The key point from the report: "Bilateral difficulties could surface, however, over North Korea policy. Moon's government favors easing sanctions against Pyongyang, a stance that could create tensions with Washington."
12. Reports: North, South Korea officials secretly met in Vladivostok in 2019
upi.com· February 8, 2021
north-South secret meetings are not unusual. There is a history of them.
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"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
- Isaac Asimov
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"If you aren't going all the way, why go at all?"
- Joe Namath