News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. US State Department "Pressure on THAAD in China, Unfair and Inappropriate... Plans to Strengthen North Korean Missile Response
2. South Korea, Conventional Capabilities, and the Future of the Korean Peninsula
3. US and South Korea nearing agreement on cost sharing for American troops
4. U.S. will not hesitate to use force when necessary to protect allies: Biden
5. Hwasong-12: North Korea's Powerful IRBM, Explained
6. Is Joe Biden Daring North Korea to Start a Crisis?
7. N Korea's Kim orders legal supervision over economic plan
8. Kim Jong Un admits North Korea is facing its 'worst ever' difficulties
9. Defense minister rekindles debate over volunteer military
10. The future of the South Korea–Iran relationship
11. North Korea engaged in fights against YouTube sanctions
12. Top-ranking cadres receive special watches, TVs following Eighth Party Congress
13. Let's open a can of Spam to celebrate Seollal in Korea
1. US State Department "Pressure on THAAD in China, Unfair and Inappropriate... Plans to Strengthen North Korean Missile Response
voakorea.com · by 김영교 · February 11, 2021
This is a google translation of a very important Voice of America report (original Korean is provided below). Baek Sungwon asked the State Department to respond to a query as to whether the US would respond to Chinese renewed economic warfare over the deployment of THAAD based on interviews with the Chinese ambassador to Korea and comments he made on THAAD earlier this week. This is an incredibly important statement for the ROK/US alliance and the US commitment to it. I assume the reaffirmation of our commitment to our allies will this time include coming to the ROK defense against Chinese economic warfare.
The ROK and the United States made an alliance decision to deploy THAAD to the ROK as a purely defensive measure to protect the ROK and its people from armed attack, and to protect alliance military forces from North Korea's weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile threats.
We have repeatedly urged the PRC to address North Korea’s destabilizing activities, including enforcing all UN Security Council Resolutions that would tighten the screws on North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
THAAD is a prudent and limited self-defense capability designed to counter reckless and unlawful North Korean weapons programs. Criticism or pressure on the ROK to abandon its self-defense is unreasonable and inappropriate.
The United States reaffirms its commitment to its allies and will continue to develop a comprehensive set of alliance capabilities to counter the North Korean ballistic missile threat.
I would also add that this report is one indication of why we need Voice of America (and Radio Free Asia and the other organizations of the USAGM). This will be heard on broadcast reports in Korea and China and read on the internet as well. I expect we will see reports in Yonhap and other Korean media in the coming days that will be based on this report and because a senior editor and journalist of the Korean Service of VOA took the initiative to ask the right question and he received a very important response from the State Department that must not go unnoticed. So when we see Korean news reports on this it will be the result of the good work of Sungwon Baik.
US State Department "Pressure on THAAD in China, Unfair and Inappropriate... Plans to Strengthen North Korean Missile Response
2. South Korea, Conventional Capabilities, and the Future of the Korean Peninsula
warontherocks.com · by Ian Bowers · February 11, 2021
This provides a useful overview of emerging South Korean conventional military capabilities and their recent plans. Since 2003 we have been advocating that South Korea develop independent warfighting capabilities.
However, the authors argue these are destabilizing and may contribute to north Korea NOT denuclearizing.
They call for conventional arms control agreements to reduce South Korean conventional capabilities. When these arguments are made there is never a discussion about reducing north Korea's conventional capabilities or the recognition that the north has postured its military for offensive operations to be able to attack the South and dominate the peninsula. South Korea has the right to defend itself and it should not have to give up defensive capabilities while the north remains the very real hostile policy toward the South. While the north accuse the US of having a hostile policy the real hostile policy belongs to Kim Jong-un and his regime.
3. US and South Korea nearing agreement on cost sharing for American troops
CNN · by Kylie Atwood, Nicole Gaouette and Oren Liebermann, CNN
Hopefully, we will soon see resolution of the SMA negotiations. This article covers more than the headline and touches on the north Korea situation and the Biden Korea policy review.
4. U.S. will not hesitate to use force when necessary to protect allies: Biden
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 11, 2021
It is always interesting to note what the foreign media emphasizes when the president speaks. Obviously, defense of allies is critically important to Korea.
5. Hwasong-12: North Korea's Powerful IRBM, Explained
19fortyfive.com · by ByEli Fuhrman · February 9, 2021
We should not forget that north Korea continues to develop and field a broad range of missile capabilities.
Excerpts:
“Given its ability to range Guam, the Hwasong-12 offers North Korea some operational benefit. Indeed, during the showdown between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump in 2017, Kim specifically mentioned Guam as a North Korean target. Despite this, the Hwasong-12’s primary significance can be found not in its military utility, but in how it has enabled North Korean development of more powerful ballistic missiles.
Following the Hwasong-12’s first successful test, analysts pointed to the potential implications for the development of a North Korean ICBM, highlighting a range of developments associated with the Hwasong-12 relevant to ICBM development, including the improved engine and better propellants along with a lighter airframe. Sure enough, the Hwasong-14, North Korea’s first successfully tested ICBM, clearly built on the Hwasong-12’s success: its first stage was identical to the Hwasong-12, utilizing the same engine and stabilizers.”
6. Is Joe Biden Daring North Korea to Start a Crisis?
19fortyfive.com · by Harry Kazianis · February 10, 2021
Why do we always assume the US is to blame for starting a crisis?
The argument from Harry is that the Biden administration is doing almost nothing on north Korea and that will precipitate a crisis. The between the lines argument seems to be that unless we engage and provide concession to the north there will be crisis on the peninsula.
But I do like this description: "...it seems clear North Korea has become a national security news orphan."
Harry is right, though, in that Kim will continue to build his nuclear arsenal. But engaging with concessions (e.g., sanctions relief - though in Harry's defense he did not explicitly say that)) will not stop or slow the nuclear and missile advancements the regime is pursuing.
7. N Korea's Kim orders legal supervision over economic plan
AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · February 11, 2021
north Korea is a rule by law country and the regime does not respect the rule of law.
Excerpt:
“North Korea’s top prosecutor U Sang Chol told the party meeting that he will firmly implement Kim’s order. He said he’ll “offensively” keep legal watch over agencies violating the socialist economic management order and take “powerful measures” against any acts hampering efforts to strengthen industries, according to KCNA.
Kim faces what appears to be the toughest crisis of his nine-year rule as the already-troubled economy is hit by pandemic-related border closings that have sharply reduced the North’s external trade, a spate of natural disasters last summer and persistent U.S.-led sanctions. During the party congress, Kim described the difficulties as the “worst-ever.”
8. Kim Jong Un admits North Korea is facing its 'worst ever' difficulties
Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers · February 11, 2021
While he cannot control natural disasters or the COVID pandemic or sanctions he could take actions to have sanctions lifted and the policy decisions regarding natural disasters and COVID (e,g, the continued prioritization of the nuclear program and military over the welfare of the people) could be reversed to prioritize the welfare of the Korean people.
The suffering of the Korean people in the north is a result of Kim jong-un's policy decisions,
9. Defense minister rekindles debate over volunteer military
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · February 10, 2021
This obviously has long term implications for the nationals security of the ROK.
Excerpts:
“Conventional warfare still matters and manpower counts. We’ll have to deal with the drop in conscripts. But looking at volunteer military right away seems careless. It’s a wrong signal to everyone,” said Kim, a retired colonel who was once in charge of strategy planning at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Moon Seong-mook, a former one-star Army general who served as chief negotiator at the inter-Korean military talks in 2007, pointed out that South Korea should think beyond the North Korean threat.
Even if we see a unified Korea, we still share borders with China and Russia to the north. They are not allies and have a much larger military presence. Are we comfortable with a reduced presence of our own?” Moon said, implying enlistment rates for volunteer military would be disappointing.
“I’m not saying let’s put it off the table. But it would be a historic departure. It doesn’t hurt to look before we leap.”
10. The future of the South Korea–Iran relationship
eastasiaforum.org · by Dal Seung Yu · February 11, 2021
Conclusion: The stoush in the Strait of Hormuz is an important event that will determine the future of the South Korea–Iran relationship. The simplest way to realise a swift resolution depends on the United States — the issue of frozen Iranian funds in South Korea is closely related to the US sanctions against Iran, so it can only be solved in the process of lifting these sanctions. South Korea must actively play the role of mediator in US–Iran relations, with the restoration of the JCPOA the primary goal.
11. North Korea engaged in fights against YouTube sanctions
The Korea Times · February 11, 2021
The Propaganda and Agitation Department is trying to modernize and grow with the times.
Excerpt: "The North Korean regime has taken advantage of this new method of propaganda, as its leader Kim Jong-un pursues practical methods of promoting his country."
North Korea engaged in fights against YouTube sanctions
12. Top-ranking cadres receive special watches, TVs following Eighth Party Congress
dailynk.com · February 10, 2021
"I came to the 8th Party Congress and all I got was this watch" (and a TV). (apologies as I think I may have tried that humor previously).
But on a serious note that even with gifts the regime is trying to control economic activity in the north.
And this is what the rank and file received for their love. devotion, and loyalty to Kim Jong-un:
Meanwhile, ordinary spectators who took part in the congress reportedly received no gifts. “Spectators received no presents,” said the source. “They were only treated to high-end food such as noodles or turtle soup at the Okryu-gwan Restaurant.”
13. Let's open a can of Spam to celebrate Seollal in Korea
korea.stripes.com · by ChiHon Kim · February 10, 2021
Happy New Year!
Let's open a can of Spam to celebrate Seollal in Korea
---------------
“If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?”
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
"Europe today has again become a vast battlefield of ideologies in which words have replaced armaments as the active elements of attack and defense." An evergreen statement. This was true over seven decades ago when it was written, and it is true today. - This statement opened a report by the special Smith-Mundt committee investigating the needs of the United States Information Service in Europe after traveling through Europe in Sep-Oct '47...'
- Thanks to Matt Armstrong
"Democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man."
- Ronald Reagan
Note that it will likely be a slow news period from the Korean media over the next 3-4 days as Korea celebrates the lunar new year.
Happy New Year. 새해 복 많이 받으세요