News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Biden Troop Deal With South Korea Calls for Modest Increases
2. New defense cost-sharing deal not to cover USFK's off-peninsula missions: officials
3. S. Korea open to considering Quad membership, Cheong Wa Dae says
4. N. Korea poses 'serious' and 'immediate' threat to U.S., allies: Davidson
5. Biden Should Embrace South Korea’s Strategic Nondecision on the Quad
6. French Navy spots suspected illegal oil transfer during embargo mission against N.K.
7. Three’s Company? Prioritizing Trilateral Deterrence Against North Korea
8. U.S., S. Korea share many interests in Indo-Pacific: State Dept. spokesman
9. A large vessel found in 6 months at a N. Korean coal port
10. Top U.S. diplomat, defense chief to visit Seoul next week
11. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible?
12. Biden has settled one of Trump's feuds with a close US ally, but there are still thornier issues to deal with
13. Step toward better alliance: Korea, US agree on defense cost sharing
14. Hard decisions to make (South Korea)
15. Boebert calls for North Korea to return seized spy ship USS Pueblo
1. Biden Troop Deal With South Korea Calls for Modest Increases
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · March 10, 2021
I am glad they released the numbers. Any lack of transparency will be met with ire in South Korea.
Also thanks to Bloomberg for the graphic to put the increases in perspective.
2. New defense cost-sharing deal not to cover USFK's off-peninsula missions: officials
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 10, 2021
This is as it should be - for operational missions. However, there is still the issue of reduced training opportunities for US forces due to decisions and actions (and sometimes non-actions) by the Korean government that have allowed encroachment on training areas resulting in complaints from citizens encroaching on these areas and the Korean government then limiting US training. If alternative training areas are not available on the peninsula some US forces have to leave the peninsula to maintain their qualifications to sustain readiness. This is a training bill not programmed and is the result of the ROKG not providing sufficient training areas. I am sure this will be an ongoing issue.
The other issue in this article is strategic flexibility. The ROK government and public are going to have to face the growing reality that the US requires strategic flexibility for all its forces to meet US national security requirements. Although the commitment to the defense of Korea will always remain as long as the Mutual Defense Treaty remains in effect the MDT does not specify north Korea as the threat. It states the MDT is to defend both countries against threats in the Asia-Pacific region. I would use that as justification for the ability to employ US forces where and when necessary.
3. S. Korea open to considering Quad membership, Cheong Wa Dae says
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 10, 2021
I think the Moon administration has come to the realization that it does not want to be left behind or left out our the group. Yes it has to be concerned with Chinese retaliation (probably through economic warfare) but through collective action the group can counter such retaliation.
4. N. Korea poses 'serious' and 'immediate' threat to U.S., allies: Davidson
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 10, 2021
Admiral Davidson's testimony is rightly getting a lot of attention.
I would change this statement slightly: ""Until the nuclear situation is resolved on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will remain our most immediate threat," he added."
I would say this: Until the division of the peninsula (the Korea question) is resolved on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will remain our most immediate threat.
The bottom line: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
5. Biden Should Embrace South Korea’s Strategic Nondecision on the Quad
thediplomat.com · by James Park · March 5, 2021
Hopefully this is now dated by a few days and South Korea is going to seriously consider becoming a member of the Quad/Quad Plus.
But the author makes some important points about South Korean domestic politics.
Excerpts:
“South Koreans, especially liberals, generally believe the United States is not working with South Korean interests in mind. Much of the grievances can be attributed to the Trump administration’s America-first approach to the alliance and how it overlooked a key South Korean liberal interest: autonomy. South Korean liberal perception of the alliance deserves more attention because of the now-liberal dominant tilt of South Korean politics and its implication for the South Korean approach to the U.S.-China rivalry.
In South Korea, conservatives long dominated politics. But today the game is flipped. South Korea exhibits unprecedented liberal primacy in which liberals have won four consecutive elections by landslides and hold a historic parliamentary supermajority. The Moon administration and its liberal cohort are the most popular political coalition in South Korean history and set the tone for what can be seen as a transition from “conservative South Korea” to “liberal South Korea.” Some draw an analogy between South Korea’s liberal wave and the American “Reagan Revolution” that sparked a generation of conservative dominance in the United States.
South Korean foreign policy presents a sharp conservative-liberal divide. The pro-American conservatives historically prioritize maximal alliance cooperation and tend to align their foreign policy with that of Washington. On the other hand, South Korean liberals are longstanding advocates of strategic autonomy within the alliance. Moon Jae-in once commented, “South Korea should learn to say no to the Americans.” Moon put his words into action. The pursuit of South Korean autonomy is no small factor in the Moon administration’s strategic nondecision.
Many in Washington seem to believe South Korea is not siding with the U.S. in confronting China simply due to fear of Chinese retaliation and that protective measures (e.g., reimbursement of financial loss and commitment to punish China) can be solutions. Such an idea mistakenly assumes that South Korea would make pro-American choices by “default” and fails to acknowledge the South Korean liberal ideological attachment to strategic nondecision. For Moon and his liberal base, strategic nondecision is an invested effort to enhance South Korean self-reliance and be freer from great power intervention.”
6. French Navy spots suspected illegal oil transfer during embargo mission against N.K.
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 10, 2021
It is good news that there is increasing international support for monitoring north Korean sanctions evasions activities. However, this report begs the question: What action was taken to interrupt this kind of activity? And what action will the international community take in the future. Monitoring is good and even deterrence by presence is helpful but enforcement of sanctions is most needed. What actions are we willing to take?
7. Three’s Company? Prioritizing Trilateral Deterrence Against North Korea
warontherocks.com · by Shane Smith · March 10, 2021
Trilateral cooperation is key to national security for all three countries.
Conclusion:
“The governments in Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul have long acknowledged that a forward-looking, cooperative relationship among them is a pillar of their defense strategies and is essential to any effort to deter and, if necessary, defeat an adversary in the event of a crisis or conflict. In recent years, however, domestic political considerations have outweighed that national security imperative. Such self-indulgent thinking is ever more dangerous. There is now an opportunity to return to first principles, resume and advance trilateral cooperation, and strengthen deterrence in Northeast Asia. The visits to Japan and South Korea later this month that are reportedly being planned for Secretaries Austin and Blinken offer a chance to get started.”
8. U.S., S. Korea share many interests in Indo-Pacific: State Dept. spokesman
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 10, 2021
Yes we do. And our Free and Open INDOPACIFIC is compatible with the ROK's Southern Strategy.
9. A large vessel found in 6 months at a N. Korean coal port
donga.com · March 10, 2021
It seems that north Korean sanctions evasions activities continue.
10. Top U.S. diplomat, defense chief to visit Seoul next week
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 10, 2021
A 2+2 with Korea this early in the new administration is an important sign.
11. Is Nuclear Peace with North Korea Possible?
project-syndicate.org · by Bennett Ramberg · March 9, 2021
We could probably write a 5000 word journal article on this question. But only one word is necessary: No.
As I have written many times: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
But the author thinks a deal is possible:
Excerpts:
“Sanctions, domestic mismanagement, natural disasters, and COVID-19 have left North Korea’s economy – by Kim’s own admission – in desperate need of repair. For America, which currently lacks effective ballistic-missile defenses, the prospect of being in North Korea’s nuclear crosshairs is unacceptable. Could this point to a possible trade-off, namely the lifting of sanctions in exchange for the elimination of rockets?
Such a deal would leave North Korea’s theater nuclear force untouched and help mend the country’s economy while reducing the risk of a preemptive American strike. It would also immunize the US against a possible North Korean ICBM attack, leaving it better placed to meet South Korean and Japanese security needs. And with diplomatic representation in each other’s countries, both sides would have reliable channels to address disputes and manage relations generally.
To determine whether Kim’s regime would be open to serious negotiation, the Biden administration could initially endorse so-called Track II diplomacy – former US government and non-government interlocutors meeting informally with North Korean officials in third-party countries. If the outreach sparked interest in Pyongyang, the door to formal talks would open. America’s default option is to return to tried-and-failed efforts to persuade North Korea to disarm. The challenge will be to convince leaders on both sides that diplomatic normalization leading to an ICBM-sanctions trade-off is the best path forward.
12. Biden has settled one of Trump's feuds with a close US ally, but there are still thornier issues to deal with
Yes the SMA (Cost sharing) is the most visible and easy to understand issue. But there are many others.
My shortlist:
· Operational Control (OPCON) Transition : The conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK.
· Combined Exercises and Training: These are critical to maintain military readiness as well as supporting the OPCON transition process and they cannot be negotiated away with the north.
· U.S. Forces Korea access to training areas : This is a critical problem for maintaining readiness of U.S. forces.
· U.S.- China Competition and the impact the ROK/U.S. Alliance. This will continue to be a source of alliance friction.
· Pandemic response : This impacts not only the entire populations of both nations, but also the economies, and military readiness.
· ROK-Japan historical enmity . Trilateral cooperation is necessary for the security of all three countries.
· ROK/U.S. Trade Issues : Although China is the ROK’s largest trading partner, economic relations between the ROK and U.S. are a key component of the alliance.
13. Step toward better alliance: Korea, US agree on defense cost sharing
The Korea Times · March 9, 2021
This excerpt illustrates why the diplomats and defense officials from the ROK and US must implement a sound IO plan to inform and educate the public on why this agreement is good for the people of both countries. Transparency is key.
Excerpt:
"Yet, it is still doubtful whether the agreement is fair and transparent. Critics question if Korea has struck the deal on an equal footing. They argue that the country will still have to pay a higher burden for the U.S. military presence, citing media reports that Seoul has offered to purchase U.S. military equipment. They also call for a change in calculating the actual defense costs. The U.S. side should improve transparency about how Korea's payment is used."
14. Hard decisions to make (South Korea)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Wi Sung-Iac
From our good friend Ambassador Wi.
This short OpEd covers a lot of ground for South Korea with regard to the US, China, Japan, and north Korea.
Conclusion: Korean diplomacy faces a test again. If the government fails to coordinate North Korea policy with Washington, its diplomatic and security scorecard will be poor. South Korea must make tough decisions on China and Japan. That is not only needed for policy toward Beijing and Tokyo but also toward Washington. If the Moon administration isn’t prepared to do this, it cannot get what it wants from a Biden administration engrossed with containing China in the region. Is Seoul prepared to accept that uncomfortable truth?
15. Boebert calls for North Korea to return seized spy ship USS Pueblo
gazette.com · by Ernest Luning
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"I will set up a new agency patterned after the erstwhile Office of Strategic Services. A modern-day OSS could draw together specialists in unconventional warfare, civil affairs, and psychological warfare; covert-action operators; and experts in anthropology, advertising, and other relevant disciplines from inside and outside government. Like the original OSS, this would be a small, nimble, can-do organization. It would fight terrorist subversion around the world and in cyberspace. It could take risks that our bureaucracies today rarely consider taking—such as deploying infiltrating agents without diplomatic cover in terrorist states and organizations—and play a key role in frontline efforts to rebuild failed states."
-John McCain https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2007-11-01/enduring-peace-built-freedom.
"It is not because the truth is too difficult to see that we make mistakes... we make mistakes because the easiest and most comfortable course for us is to seek insight where it accords with our emotions - especially selfish ones."
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
“I do not say that democracy has been more pernicious on the whole, and in the long run, than monarchy or aristocracy. Democracy has never been and never can be so durable as aristocracy or monarchy; but while it lasts, it is more bloody than either. … Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. It is in vain to say that democracy is less vain, less proud, less selfish, less ambitious, or less avaricious than aristocracy or monarchy. It is not true, in fact, and nowhere appears in history. Those passions are the same in all men, under all forms of simple government, and when unchecked, produce the same effects of fraud, violence, and cruelty. When clear prospects are opened before vanity, pride, avarice, or ambition, for their easy gratification, it is hard for the most considerate philosophers and the most conscientious moralists to resist the temptation. Individuals have conquered themselves. Nations and large bodies of men, never.”
- John Adams, The Letters of John and Abigail Adams