News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. South Korea Should Reassess Its Push for Inter-Korean Engagement
2. China seen as military threat by 88% of Japanese, 72% of South Koreans
3. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Three Years After Its Dismantlement
4. Tracking the "unidentified yellow substance" being dried out near the Yongbyon Nuclear Center
5. Japan, South Korea join growing backlash against China’s Confucius Institutes
6. Kim Jong Un Appoints a First Secretary: What does he have in mind?
7. Summit opens new chapter in alliance
8. China courting Korea in competition with US
9. Wang Yi warns Seoul not to take sides in Sino-U.S. rivalry
10. What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's $15,881 watch says about his weight loss
11. Unification ministry has nothing to say about N.K. leader's health amid speculation over weight loss: official
12. U.S. seeks to make progress with N. Korea through diplomacy: State Dept.
13. N. Korea stresses cooperation with international Red Cross organizations amid global virus pandemic
14. Exclusive: New York City's message to Kim Jong Un honoring Otto Warmbier
1. South Korea Should Reassess Its Push for Inter-Korean Engagement
The National Interest · by Mathew Ha · June 9, 2021
The latest from my colleague Mathew Ha. A critical assessment of the Moon administration's engagement policy.
2. China seen as military threat by 88% of Japanese, 72% of South Koreans
Taiwan News · by Micah McCartney,
Interesting data.
The buried lede (Korea-Japan relations): “However, the poll also found that approximately the same number of Japanese and South Koreans view each others' presidents with as much suspicion as they do Chairman Xi. In addition, over 80 percent on either side believe their country's relationship with the other is either "rather bad" or very "bad."
Poll respondents were also asked about the historical issues driving the diplomatic schism between the two nations, including Korean "comfort women" being forced into prostitution by the Empire of Japan during World War II. A majority of Japanese (59 percent) and Koreans (79 percent) do not think it's necessary to "go further on the issue of historical awareness" to mend the relationship and expressed pessimism that it would improve in the future, with 73 percent of Japanese and 58 percent of Koreans forecasting "no change."
The poll was conducted by landline and used the random digit dialing (RDD) survey method to reach landline and mobile phones. It collected responses from 1,063 Japanese over the age of 18 from May 21-23 and 1,000 South Korean adults on May 21 and 22.
3. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Three Years After Its Dismantlement
38north.org · by Jack Liu · June 9, 2021
Bottom-line: “In the past six months, imagery indicates no major new activity, although there is evidence that personnel remain on-site.
...
Until an independent inspection team with the proper equipment and expertise is allowed on-site to assess the extent of damage to the test tunnels, the potential for reactivating the site remains if Pyongyang decides to resume nuclear weapons testing.
4. Tracking the "unidentified yellow substance" being dried out near the Yongbyon Nuclear Center
dailynk.com · by Bruce Songhak Chung · June 10, 2021
Excerpt: “Taking all of this into consideration, I conclude that the grain harvested and left out to dry in Yongbyon in spring is wheat or barley, not corn. However, it is also true that when seen in a color satellite photograph, it is difficult to differentiate barley from corn due to their similar light yellow or light orange color.
Putting all this information together, I sent an email to 38 North. I presented my opinion that the unidentified yellow substance the website had discovered at Yongbyon was drying barley in spring and drying corn in autumn. I also sent some material I found on the Internet.
5. Japan, South Korea join growing backlash against China’s Confucius Institutes
SCMP · b yPark Chan-kyong and Julian Ryall · June 10, 2021
6. Kim Jong Un Appoints a First Secretary: What does he have in mind?
onekoreanetwork.com · by Hyun-Seung Lee · June 9, 2021
Very useful analysis from our friend Hyun-Seung Lee
In conclusion, North Korea is a country that has operated with one ideology under a one-man leadership system.
A strong ideology-based, one-man leadership system is at the core of how the Kim regime maintains its power. In a long-term dictatorship like North Korea, dictators have never shared power on their own and will probably never do so.
7. Summit opens new chapter in alliance
The Korea Times · by Park Jin · June 10, 2021
A positive assessment of the summit.
Key points: “ball is in Kim Jong-un's court but we have to be prepared to manage the Korean problem if he remains recalcitrant. And we must take a human rights upfront approach.
So, the stage is set for Washington's exploratory diplomacy with Pyongyang. The ball is now in North Korea's court. The Biden team might take a cautious "bottom-up" approach based on a concrete and reciprocal roadmap. Whether this renewed approach by Washington will produce any "tangible progress" toward denuclearization depends on the critical decision by the Kim Jong-un regime. The North Korean nuclear issue remains unresolved, despite policy alternating between confrontation and negotiation. If it cannot be resolved in the near term, it should be coherently managed in the longer term based on deterrence, sanctions, incentives and persuasion.
Finally, the two leaders agreed to improve the human rights situation in North Korea in tandem with necessary humanitarian aid. Human rights are essential moral issues and universal values that should not be neglected for the sake of pursuing an inter-Korean detente.
8. China courting Korea in competition with US
The Korea Times · June 10, 2021
This is "courting?" According to China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Thursday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone conversation with Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong the previous night, telling Chung that Korea should not become trapped in a "biased" way of thinking, and that Seoul and Beijing needed to maintain a "political consensus."
9. Wang Yi warns Seoul not to take sides in Sino-U.S. rivalry
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim· June 10, 2021
From China's perspective I think not taking sides means taking China's side.
10. What North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's $15,881 watch says about his weight loss
I still think he is just wearing a larger watch band.
11. Unification ministry has nothing to say about N.K. leader's health amid speculation over weight loss: official
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 10, 2021
12. U.S. seeks to make progress with N. Korea through diplomacy: State Dept.
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 10, 2021
Again my belief is we are giving Kim Jong-un every opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community and come to the table and negotiate in good faith.
13. N. Korea stresses cooperation with international Red Cross organizations amid global virus pandemic
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 10, 2021
14. Exclusive: New York City's message to Kim Jong Un honoring Otto Warmbier
foxnews.com · by Eric Shawn | Fox News
While this seems like a "feel good" action (and it does make us feel good), it is important to do everything we can to call attention to the north Korean human rights abuses.
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"One cannot make command decisions simply by assessing the tactical situation and going ahead with whatever course of action will do the most harm to the enemy with a minimum of death and damage to your own men and materiel. Modern warfare has become very complex, especially during the last century. Wars are won not by a simple series of battles won, but by a complex interrelationship among military victory, economic pressures, logistic maneuvering, access to the enemy's information, political postures - dozens, literally dozens of factors."
-Joe Haldeman
"Media is an assemblage of tools with which to expand an audience's conception of what "the world" is to such and extent that their own lives and capabilities seem utterly insignificant; a means of psychological warfare by which people are overloaded with information and desensitized to their own and others' suffering; the sum of all means by which human beings reduce the infinite complexity of reality to a dead-end maze of abstractions."
- CrimethInc.
“In the future, we should anticipate seeing more hybrid wars where conventional warfare, irregular warfare, asymmetric warfare, and information warfare all blend together, creating a very complex and challenging situation to the combatants; therefore it will require military forces to posses hybrid capabilities, which might help deal with hybrid threats.”
- Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono