News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. FDD | North Korea Likely Behind Hack Targeting South Korean Nuclear Submarine
2. Regime Collapse in North Korea Would Be Catastrophic
3. South needs to allow information to cross the border: U.S. analyst
4. Why Does Moon Keep Sucking up to N.Korea?
5. North Korea Gives the U.S. the Cold Shoulder on Nuclear Talks
6. Biden's N.Korea Policy and Kim Jong-un's Silence
7. Just How Stable Is North Korea?
8. N.Korea's currency, commodity markets in turmoil as borders stay closed - reports
9. ‘Smaller drills won’t earn lasting inter-Korean detente’
10. North Korea Sends Mixed Signals on Talks with US
11. North Korea anticipated to solidify ties with China
12. [Editorial] Building momentum: US, North Korea are edging closer to reopening denuclearization talks
13. Kim Yo Jong ridicules Washington’s proposal for dialogue
14. US remains committed to engaging with North Korea: State Department
15. Seoul nuke envoy stresses need to resolve N.K. issue through dialogue
16. North Korean man arrested in Onsong County for smuggling along North Korea-China border
17. No human rights violations found at N. Korean defectors' debriefing center since 2014: NIS chief
18. N. Korea, China hold rare joint symposium to mark anniversaries of leaders' reciprocal visits
19. S. Korea lodges complaint with Japan over military video describing Dokdo as disputed territory
20. N. Korea rules out possibility of contact with U.S.
21. Washington doesn't budge from latest outreach to Pyongyang
1. FDD | North Korea Likely Behind Hack Targeting South Korean Nuclear Submarine
fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · June 22, 2021
From my colleague Mathew Ha. Beware the regime's "all-purpose sword."
2. Regime Collapse in North Korea Would Be Catastrophic
The National Interest · by Meriel Hahn · June 22, 2021
It is interesting to see the current discussion of the possibility of north Korea regime collapse. I am accused of being a long time "collapsist" and chastised because the regime has not collapsed. But like the title of this article, we never predicted when or if north Korea would collapse., only that if it does it will be catastrophic (and therefore we need to have contingency plans). Also it is not something we should necessarily wish for nor should we assume it will be clean and easy or even like the fall of the Communist Bloc and East Germany. One of the concerns we have with collapse that the authors do not address is that the conditions that lead to instability and regime collapse could also lead Kim to make the decision to go to war as the only alternative to collapse. As counterintuitive as it is to us, it could be assessed as Kim's only path to potential survival. And it is made worse by Kim's lack of military experience and by the lack of experience of all his senior military advisors all of whom (save I think one) are political generals and not career professional military personnel. They may be telling him what they think he wants to hear regarding the actual correlation of forces and combat power in the South and if Kim doesn't understand the strength of the ROK military and the combined alliance military power he may more quickly and easily come to make the decision to execute his campaign plan in order to survive.
While I do wish, like the authors, that a better or more humane regime would emerge in north Korea, I am not holding my breath. The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
We have been worried about this for a couple of decades:
Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military (1996)
3. South needs to allow information to cross the border: U.S. analyst
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · June 22, 2021
Perhaps the Koreans will listen to Mr. Bandow. They certainly do not listen to us.
We laid out our recommendations for information and influence activities here:
4. Why Does Moon Keep Sucking up to N.Korea?
A bold and brutal question for the moon administration. There is no doubt that President Moon desires peace and reconciliation and he wanted to be the President who made that happen. I respect his desire for peace as we should all want that. Unfortunately, he is so passionate that he is willing to try to bring "peace at any cost." Continuing down this path could eventually lead to great cost in blood, treasure, and freedom for the Korean people in the South. We have to deal with the brutal Kim family regime as it really is and not as we would wish it to be (though we must continue to give it the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community - just not at the expense of the security of the ROK and the interests of the US).
5. North Korea Gives the U.S. the Cold Shoulder on Nuclear Talks
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong
Excerpts: “In the absence of a deal, Pyongyang grew its potential stockpile of nuclear weapons to an estimated 40 to 50 warheads, according to an early 2021 estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank. That is up from 30 to 40 the prior year, according to the group’s assessment, which is based on the country’s estimated production of fissile material. The Pentagon, in separate assessments, have also warned of the Kim regime’s continuing weapons expansion.
Nonetheless, North Korea has remained relatively quiet since the start of the pandemic, sealing off its borders and conducting just a handful of shorter-range missile tests. One factor for Pyongyang’s hesitancy about nuclear talks is internal turmoil caused by Covid-19 fears, flood damage and economic pain, which Mr. Kim has called the country’s “worst-ever situation.”
But Mr. Kim’s remarks last week suggest North Korea may once again be willing to engage externally through diplomacy or confrontation after spending much of the past 18 months focused on domestic challenges, said Alex Wong, a former senior State Department official during the Trump administration who worked on North Korea issues. But Washington shouldn’t reward Pyongyang for simply engaging, he added.
“North Korea should be willing to talk no matter what to discuss if there’s a deal possible,” said Mr. Wong, who is now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute.
6. Biden's N.Korea Policy and Kim Jong-un's Silence
english.chosun.com · by Victor Cha
Victor Cha provides "six theories" for north Korea's silence. He also outlines his assessment of the Biden administration policy and says it seems to be working.
7. Just How Stable Is North Korea?
The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · June 22, 2021
A big unknown. The only way to make a judgement is to assess indicators and warnings of instability. The only comprehensive list of indications and warnings was produced by Robert Collins in his seminal work "Patterns of Collapse" and the "Seven Phases of North Korean Collapse." I doubt that few analysts at USFK J2 and CFC C2 know that the indicators and warnings they are using to assess north Korean instability and collapse came from Bob's in-depth research and his deep knowledge of north Korea and the Kim family regime.
8. N.Korea's currency, commodity markets in turmoil as borders stay closed - reports
channelnewsasia.com · by Josh Smith
The decision to close the border may have saved the regime from COVID but it is at the expense of the welfare of the Korean people.
The paradox is that while it may have saved the regime from COVID it might also be responsible for instability and the potential for what may come next.
9. ‘Smaller drills won’t earn lasting inter-Korean detente’
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · June 22, 2021
"Lasting?" I do not think it will earn any detente.
While the ROK and the US may not require any preconditions for talks the ROK Unification minister is offering the north preconditions by cancelling or scaling back exercises.
Excerpts: “This time, the Moon Jae-in government wants to hold smaller drills to engage Pyongyang, whose leader, Kim Jong-un, said last week that his country should be ready for both talks and confrontation. Kim has called on Seoul and Washington to drop the drills he describes as hostile policy for dialogue to take place.
“I think we’re in perfect agreement. We will also meet with North Korea ‘anytime, anywhere, without preconditions,’” Unification Minister Lee In-young said Tuesday, quoting Sung Kim, the US special representative for North Korea, who responded to Kim Jong-un by saying the US was likewise ready to engage.
I certainly hope we are NOT in perfect agreement when it comes to conducting exercises. Cancelling, postponing, or scaling back exercises in the hopes that it will bring Km to the table is a fantasy and fool's errand.
10. North Korea Sends Mixed Signals on Talks with US
learningenglish.voanews.com · June 23, 2021
Finally a report that stresses the signals from the north are mixed and that Kim Yo Jong's and the party's statements are vague and open ended.
11. North Korea anticipated to solidify ties with China
The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · June 23, 2021
No surprise here. These ties undermine ROK/US alliance efforts and provide the north with necessary support politically and economically.
12. [Editorial] Building momentum: US, North Korea are edging closer to reopening denuclearization talks
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · June 22, 2021
A somewhat hopeful assessment (in the title at least) with an important caution to the Moon administration.
Excerpts: “Despite its professed willingness to engage in dialogue with Pyongyang anytime and anywhere, the Biden administration has made it clear that there cannot be a deal that falls short of ensuring the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the North.
US-led international sanctions on the impoverished regime cannot be expected to be significantly eased let alone lifted until complete denuclearization is achieved or guaranteed. Washington may move to impose additional sanctions on the North with regard to its dire human rights conditions if Kim continues to stick to his nuclear ambitions.
In this vein, it should be noted that South Korea needs to be careful not to go too far in trying to forge what it sees as an atmosphere conducive to getting Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table.
Aides to President Moon Jae-in have recently proposed not only providing humanitarian assistance for the North but also restoring major inter-Korean economic projects, which could run the risk of violating the global sanctions regime against Pyongyang.
Seoul would be out of step with Washington if it attempts to push the boundaries of the sanctions framework. This would only undermine efforts to build momentum toward resuming talks with the North.
13. Kim Yo Jong ridicules Washington’s proposal for dialogue
donga.com · June 23, 2021
As noted the assessment of the statements from Kim Yo Jong and the Workers Party of Korea as all over the map.
14. US remains committed to engaging with North Korea: State Department
The Korea Times · June 23, 2021
Does this fall on the regime's deaf ears? Mr. Price is right to not overreact to statements from the north.
15. Seoul nuke envoy stresses need to resolve N.K. issue through dialogue
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 22, 2021
16. North Korean man arrested in Onsong County for smuggling along North Korea-China border
dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 23, 2021
Even the head of a trading company. Note the corruption as well as the desperation.
I think the worst people, the true ideologues and true believers, must be the inminban (head of the local village political apparatus). They are little people who think they wield much power on behalf of the regime.
17. No human rights violations found at N. Korean defectors' debriefing center since 2014: NIS chief
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 23, 2021
I should hope not.
18. N. Korea, China hold rare joint symposium to mark anniversaries of leaders' reciprocal visits
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 23, 2021
19. S. Korea lodges complaint with Japan over military video describing Dokdo as disputed territory
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 23, 2021
20. Historic alliance: Marriage between US, South Korean army officers is first of its kind
Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · June 23, 2021
A unique human interest story. We have always said the alliance is like a marriage! Now we have one. And they probably have a future in Microsoft advertisements - fell in love over PowerPoint. I feel bad for their respective personnel assignments officers!
20. N. Korea rules out possibility of contact with U.S.
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 23, 2021
A fairly definitive statement..... for now. This means one thing - no concessions = no talks and is surely an attempt to drive a wedge between the ROK and US. The engager pundits the ROK and US are going to double down on their arguments that we must cancel exercises and lift sanctions.
I ask this rhetorically: In support of the Kim family regime strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
21. Washington doesn't budge from latest outreach to Pyongyang
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim· June 23, 2021
Keep up the fire. Stay strong!
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"BRAC originated in the 1960s under President Kennedy as the Department of Defense (DOD) had to realign its base structure after World War II and the Korean War. At that time, the DOD was able to close bases without congressional interference, and 60 bases were closed in the 1960s."
- Sam Brownback
"Since the Korean War, U.S. and South Korea have established an enduring friendship with shared interests, such as denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, combating aggression abroad and developing our economies."
-Charles B. Rangel
"Wars of necessity are essentially unavoidable. They involve the most important national interests, a lack of promising alternatives to the use of force, and a certain and considerable price to be paid if the status quo is allowed to stand. Examples include World War II and the Korean War.”
- Richard N. Haass