Small Wars Journal

Syria: Whose Side Are You On?

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 5:32am

Syria: Whose Side Are You On?

Jamie Dettmer, Voice of America

The increasingly confused battlefield of northern Syria gives new meaning to the old saying that war makes for strange bedfellows.

With a dizzying array of vying armed groups, jihadists and Syrian government-aligned forces battling each other in multiple micro-conflicts, friend can become foe, and foe can turn into a temporary ally with alarming speed — depending on where clashes are occurring.

Certainly in the battles and skirmishes around Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and onetime commercial capital, the struggle is getting messier by the day.

Rebel commanders loudly accuse Damascus and Moscow of helping the Islamic State terror group with airstrikes meant to undermine insurgents in the countryside north of Aleppo, where rebels battling to oust President Bashar al-Assad have come under sustained and vicious assaults sometimes led by suicide bombers.

This is happening while insurgents are waging fierce battles south and southwest of the city to prevent government forces from encircling the rebel-held portion of Aleppo.

Meanwhile, Islamic State extremists managed this week to grab from government forces also south of Aleppo a 15-kilometer stretch of a highway linking Hama to Aleppo. IS won the three-day battle with at least indirect help, and possibly planned collaboration, from anti-government rebels led by al-Qaida affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra — or so Syrian government officials claim.

Regardless, by seizing part of the highway Monday between Khanaser and Ithriya, IS has succeeded in severing the Assad government’s last remaining land-based supply route into Aleppo. This helps anti-government rebels by undermining Damascus’ offensive aimed at isolating them in their respective districts in the battered city.

Confusing Battlelines

Both the anti-Assad rebels and the government are quick to accuse each other of collaborating with the Islamic State. But both, when it serves tactical military purposes, take advantage of the presence on the battlefield of the terror group, if only indirectly.

And the Islamic State, in turn, has been opportunistically leveraging Russia’s intervention, quickly pressing an offensive that had stalled north of Aleppo on the rebel-held towns of Marea, Tal Rifat and Azaz.

A few days into the Russian air campaign, IS fighters launched a surprise advance just south of the border with Turkey. It was the most significant in months, managing to quickly seize the villages of Tal Qrah, Tal Sousin and Kfar Qares.

They also stormed a former army base known as the Infantry Academy that had been held by anti-Assad forces for two years. And they punched into an industrial zone in the northeast corner of Aleppo, a potential gateway into rebel districts in the city.

“The situation is now very difficult,” said Abdul Rahman, a commander with the Ahfad Omer battalion, part of the larger First Brigade, a U.S.-backed secular militia.

“We are fighting both IS and Assad. When we gather to mount an attack on regime forces, ISIS comes and disrupts the assault, and at the same time the Russian warplanes arrive and attack us,” he added.

Using the Arab acronym for IS, he joked, “Maybe we should try to negotiate a truce with Daesh, fight Assad and then come back to finish Daesh.”

This is an unlikely suggestion from a fighter who has seen his own men die in battles with IS.

The micro-conflict north of Aleppo is crucial for the rebels; they need to hold their territory there to maintain supply lines running into Turkey.

“We are the only people who fought ISIS and pushed them from Aleppo,” said Zakaria Malahefji, a spokesman for the 3,000-strong Fastaqim Kama Umirt, a brigade linked to the rebel alliance Jaish al-Mujahideen (Army of Holy Warriors).

“By not focusing on Assad and targeting him, the West is complicating the situation and is making it more dangerous for us," said Malahefji. "The West needs to understand that the main enemy has to be Assad; he is the one who helped create Daesh in the first place and is exporting terrorism to other countries including Turkey."

Self-fulfilling Prophecy

The rebels have long argued that Assad has been playing a complex double game, using jihadists to act as fifth columnists, planning for them to effectively sabotage the revolution against him and color it as extremist.

The rebels point to Assad's early release of large numbers of jihadist prisoners at the start of the revolution, a maneuver to distort the rebellion and then be able to claim it was extremist in nature all along.

The rebels say the government has focused far more of its military efforts on them the past two years, often ignoring fighting IS altogether, and content to see it expand in eastern Syria and even parts of the center of the country.

In May the ease with which IS was able to seize the ancient city of Palmyra prompted some military observers to speculate Assad deliberately abandoned the site — with its unique ruins and irreplaceable ancient artifacts and treasures —  to gain Western sympathy.

“The collaboration is clear at times between the Russians and the Assad regime with Daesh. Their offensive in the northern Aleppo countryside has increased in intensity with the aid of Russian airstrikes. They are working together on many front lines to put pressure on us,” said Malahefji of Jaish al-Mujahideen.

“When ISIS tries to storm our positions, the Assad regime and the Russians back them with airstrikes and shelling,” he added.

With the rebels bearing the brunt of the Russian-backed Assad offensives elsewhere, Malahefji warned that IS is being handed opportunities to capture still more ground, particularly in the contested area north of Aleppo. That is territory once earmarked by the West for a possible safe haven for Syrian refugees.

That may be so, but the attack by IS on the Aleppo-Hama highway hardly serves the government's objectives, and it was pulled off in an area the Islamist extremists have not been controlling and is more associated with anti-Assad rebels.

The government has not officially acknowledged the loss, but Syrian officials told VOA the seizure was only successful because IS militants attacked on one side of the road while rebel fighters allied to al-Qaida’s branch in Syria, Jabhat al-Nusra, a fierce rival of IS, were pressing on the other side.

They insist it was a coordinated assault. If true, it would be further testimony to the murkiness of a conflict where front lines are fluid, local deals are struck, and enemies can become allies overnight — and then revert back to being enemies — in what U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry described earlier this year as a “huge sectarian mess.”

Comments

The French Wars of Religion, followed by the Thirty Years War overlapped by the Eighty Years War must have seemed confusing as well…

Despite the chaos on the ground, that sprawling catastrophe was driven by the rational logic of the participants. Syria’s Civil War is no different.

And yes, it is possible to pick sides. Realists would tell you that the only choices for the Arab/Islamic World are secular/tribal authoritarianism or theocracy. Despite the green shoots of liberalism and democracy evident in Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Syria and Bahrain – not to mention the established pro-Western constituency in Turkey – Realists would tell you to ignore this middle group and allow them to be crushed for the sake of stability.

Realists also assumed that the Communist Bloc was a fact, even though it collapsed on itself. In China, the CCP is having a difficult time convincing the population that it is anything another than a self-propagating oligarchy with no real ideological commitment other than to the leading 10,000 or so families of the nation. More than 35 years after Iran’s revolution, the “revolutionary” government is sclerotic, and more oligarchic than theocratic. The Pasdaran and their associates act more like a mafia than a Shi’ite vanguard.

So-called “moderates” started the revolutions in Iran, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria, not Islamists. As in Iran’s revolution, Islamists took the opportunity to hijack the revolution in Egypt.

I believe that these moderate forces, despite their weaknesses, need our support out of principle. Yes, it is more convenient and expedient to support a secular dictator, but that only buys a precious few decades before the next upheaval.

The CIA should not be supporting armed groups simply because they are fighting adversaries; they should be supporting those groups fighting for common principles, or principles as common as one can find in the Middle East. I am not an idealist, but neither theocracy nor dictatorship has proven attractive over the long term, and when the US puts out one fire with a strongman, another starts to burn. Plus, pursuing ideological goals will provide consistency for both our allies, our enemies and neutral observers.

Outlaw 09

Thu, 10/29/2015 - 8:59am

AND to make things even "murkier"...........

As in 1815 Congress of Vienna - warlords divide the spoils: "Syria opposition, rebels, not invited to Vienna talks"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/29/us-mideast-crisis-syria-oppos…

Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir says Vienna talks to test if Iran serious on Syria
http://aje.io/he3j

Just what the heck is this?????

How absurd! Lebanon is also invited to Syria's circus in Vienna after Egypt & Iran. Someone call Afghanistan pls!!

Let's see--Syria is not invited but both of it's allies are Russia and Iran and Egypt is Russian leaning????????? SO effectively is talking for the large rebel groups??

Russia has deliberately expanded the participants to muddy the water and to drag out the talks to allow the RuAF, Iran and Hezbollah to achieve "ground victories' where they can then dictate to the rebels what they want.

Age old Russian "talking strategy"--they pulled the same thing in the Minsk 1 and 2 "talks" and "talked" while they captured Debatlseve which was not to be part of the Russian controlled area.

But strangely the Russian/Iranian/Hezbollah ground campaign is failing and failing badly........

AND the West falls for the Russian "talking strategy" every time......