El Centro

Strategic Horizons: All Options Bad If Mexico’s Drug Violence Expands to U.S. by Steven Metz, World Politics Review

Over the past few decades, violence in Mexico has reached horrific levels, claiming the lives of 70,000 as criminal organizations fight each other for control of the drug trade and wage war on the Mexican police, military, government officials and anyone else unlucky enough to get caught in the crossfire. The chaos has spread southward, engulfing Guatemala, Honduras and Belize. Americans must face the possibility that the conflict may also expand northward, with intergang warfare, assassinations of government officials and outright terrorism in the United States. If so, this will force Americans to undertake a fundamental reassessment of the threat, possibly redefining it as a security issue demanding the use of U.S. military power.

One way that large-scale drug violence might move to the United States is if the cartels miscalculate and think they can intimidate the U.S. government or strike at American targets safely from a Mexican sanctuary. The most likely candidate would be the group known as the Zetas…

Read on.

Zetas Training US Gang Members in Mexico by Michael Lohmuller, In Sight Crime

Members of the Texas-born Barrio Azteca gang are receiving training from Mexico's Zetas, according to the testimony of a former gang member, a sign the group is evolving and deepening its role in organized crime beyond the border region.

Former Barrio Azteca member Jesus Ernesto Chavez Castillo -- who is serving as a witness in the Texas trial of the gang's ex-leader in exchange for protection in prison -- said the Zetas are training members of the gang for assassinations, attacks, extortion and protection, reported Informador…

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Mexican Cartel Smuggling Cocaine into Hong Kong Amid Booming Demand for Drugs by Bryan Harris, South China Morning Post

One of the world's largest and most notorious drug cartels is targeting Hong Kong as it seeks to expand its operations into lucrative new markets, the Sunday Morning Post has learned.

Already a key supplier of illicit narcotics to many Western countries, Mexico's Sinaloa cartel is diversifying its business by taking advantage of the booming demand for cocaine and methamphetamines in the Asia-Pacific region…

Read on.

Mexico Legalizes Vigilantes, Nabs Cartel Leader - Associated Press

Mexico essentially legalized the country’s growing “self-defense” groups Monday, while also announcing that security forces had captured one of the four top leaders of the Knights Templar drug cartel, which the vigilante groups have been fighting for the last year.

The government said it had reached an agreement with vigilante leaders to incorporate the armed civilian groups into old and largely forgotten quasi-military units called the Rural Defense Corps. Vigilante groups estimate their numbers at 20,000 men under arms…

Read on.

Mexican Vigilante Legalization Plan Carries Risks - Associated Press

After months of tacit cooperation with rural vigilantes trying to drive out a cult-like drug cartel, the Mexican government is seeking to permanently solve one of its toughest security problems with a plan to legalize the growing movement and bring it under the army’s control.

But the risks are high.

To succeed, the government must enforce military discipline and instill respect for human rights and due process among more than 20,000 heavily armed civilians, then eventually disband them and send them back home in the western state of Michoacan…

Read on.

Mexican Cartel Strategic Note No. 17: Civil Self-Defense Groups Have Emerged in 11 Mexican States

Robert J. Bunker

Via Rosa Emilia Porras y Adriana Anguiano, “Se ‘arman’ en 11 estados: La Comisión Nacional de Derechos Humanos informó que los grupos de autodefensas se ubican en 11 estados, de entre los que destacan Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca y el Estado de México.” Mileno. 19/12/2013, http://www.milenio.com/estados/Armados-busca-seguridad_0_211179261.html.

Ciudad de México • La Comisión Nacional de Derechos Humanos dio a conocer a través de un informe el número de policías comunitarios y grupos de autodefensa que se ubican en el país.

Según los datos, son 11 entidades las que registran estos grupos armados que, en algunos casos, son apoyados por los propios gobiernos estatales, como en Guerrero.

Las entidades que registran mayores grupos de defensa son Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca y el Estado de México…

Autodefensas (Xnabil Flores)

Translation:  Civil Self-Defense Groups Have Emerged in 11 Mexican States – 18 January 2014.

According to the National Human Rights Commission, civil self-defense groups have emerged in 11 of Mexico’s 32 states. Details regarding the states in which these groups are operating are listed below:

•     Michoacan: numerous groups are operational in the state and new groups continue to

       emerge.

•     Mexico State:  two known groups are operational here.

•     Guerrero: civil self-defense groups are operational in 46 of Guerrero’s 81

       municipalities. In some cases, these groups are supported by the state government.

•     Oaxaca: two known civil self-defense groups are located in the state. The first 

       operates out of Santos Reyes Nopala and is headed by PRI Mayor Freddy Gil Pineda. 

       The second operates out of Juchitan de Zaragoza.

•     Chiapas

•     Morelos

•     Veracruz

•     Puebla

•     Tlaxcala

•     Hidalgo

Civil self-defense groups are the strongest and most organized in Michoacan, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Mexico State. In Michoacan alone, 44 individual civil self-defense groups are operational in 45 regions and 19 municipalities; some of which were reported as follows:

•     Buenavista, Tomatlan

•     Tepalcatepec

•     Tancintaro

•     Cherato

•     Cheratillo

•     18 de Marzo

•     Oruscato

•     Urapicho

•     Los Reyes

•     Apatzingan

•     Santiago Acahuato

•     La Ruana

•     Vista Hermosa

•     Briseñas

•     Valle de Huetamo

•     La Huacana

•     Aguililla

•     Coalcoman

•     Periban

•     Chinicuila

•     Aguililla

•     Aquila

•     Cheran

•     Paracho

•     Uruapan

•     Pareo

Some of the most significant civil self-defense groups currently operational in Mexico are listed below:

•     Organizations of Guerrero Union (UPOEG): has known presence in 21 areas

•     Regional Coordinating Community Police (CRAC):  has known presence in 15 areas

•     Union of Costa Grande Towns (UPCG): has known presence in four areas

•     Regional Security and Justice Coordination- Popular Police (CRSJ-PCP): has known

       presence in three areas

•     Citizens Police of Olinala-Regional Coordinating Community Police (PCO-CRAC):

       has known presence in one area

•     Aplaxtlense Adrian Castrejon Movement (MAAC): has known presence in one area

Analysis: The alarm over the rise of the fuerzas autodefensas (self-defense forces) was sounded by George Grayson in the September 2011 Army War College paper Threat Posed by Mounting Vigilantism in Mexico and later echoed by Patricio Asfura-Heim and Ralph Espach in the July-August 2013 Foreign Affairs article “The Rise of Mexico’s Self-Defense Forces.” What is interesting about these works—and the one spotlighted in this strategic note—is that to which specific Mexican states these groups are spreading and in what numbers appears to be somewhat in doubt. The Foreign Affairs article states that these groups have “ … formed in the Pacific states of Michoacán and Jalisco, in the northern border state of Chihuahua, in the eastern states of Veracruz and Tabasco, and on the outskirts of Mexico City. They now operate openly in 13 different states and at least 68 municipalities. According to the government, 14 new groups have formed since January; Mexican security analysts say the real number is likely much higher.” This earlier estimate represents two more states than that listed in the translated Mileno article from December. Still, compared to the Army War College paper that only lists 4 well organized vigilante groups (Fig 9., p. 43) in 2011, the popular uprising represented by the formation of these groups is significant.

What is not in doubt concerning the increasing spread of these groups throughout a sizeable portion of southern Mexico is the ‘legitimacy issue’ that they raise vis-à-vis the authority of the sovereign government. One of the primary functions of a nation-state is to protect its people from threats both foreign and domestic—be it from the ravages of war or rampant criminality. The Mexican nation-state has clearly failed in this regard and as a result hundreds of areas of impunity—under de facto gang and cartel control—have emerged within its territories. The emergence of the fuerzas autodefensas is a natural reaction to a Hobbesian reality forced upon the local citizenry—protect yourselves by bearing arms because the Federal government is either unwilling or unable to provide for your security and safety. To what extent these local defenses forces in Mexico multiply and evolve from this point forward is anyone’s guess. They may become criminal groups in their own right, merge with some of the pre-existing gangs and cartels, fall under the authority of the sovereign state (as agents of the state under Federal officers and advisors), or remain independent entities. Quite possibly, enough of these groups now exist to evolve down multiple pathways. Further, many analysts project more of these groups to emerge as the Federal government continues to lose its authority over additional sovereign territories. Given the past experiences Colombia has had with similar groups the future does not bode well for Mexico in this regard.

Addendum:  The original Spanish article states that civil self-defense groups are operational in 11 Mexican states but only depicts 10 in the map.

California-Raised Kids vs. Mexico’s Violent Cartel by Dudley Althaus, Salon

… For 11 months, armed civilians calling themselves “autodefensas,” or self-defense militias, have been fighting to thwart the deadly Knights Templar in Michoacan’s Pacific coastal lowlands.

The militias’ recent successes against the gang has renewed fears of civil war here, spurring…

Militia leaders say they don’t have a good count of the US-raised youths among their hundreds of gunmen. But Verduzco and others from Southern California say their numbers are considerable…

Read on.