What President Trump’s Foreign Policy Will Look Like by David Ignatius, Washington Post
Donald Trump proclaimed “America First” on his way to his head-spinning victory in Tuesday’s presidential election, and the success of that message will rock many foreign capitals where leaders have feared that Trump would alter the basics of U.S. foreign policy.
Making predictions about Trump’s foreign policy is difficult, given his lack of experience. But the most likely bet is that as president he will seek to do what he promised during the campaign in breaking from current U.S. approaches to Russia, the Middle East, Europe and Asia…
A Trump foreign policy, based on his statements, will bring an intense “realist” focus on U.S. national interests and a rejection of costly U.S. engagements abroad. It will likely bring these changes:
A move to improve relations with a combative, assertive Russia…
A joint military effort with Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to defeat the Islamic State…
A new push for European allies to pay more for their own defense…
An attempt to alter the terms of trade in Asia by renegotiating trade pacts and forcing China to revalue its currency…
Comments
.........Think about this statement and how this same mentality is to underline US FP going forward over the next four years......an advisor this close to Trump tells you where we are going......
WHEN an advisor this close to Trump cannot even understand that capitalism is not a form of government then we are all in trouble.....so when Syrians demand the rule of law and good governance instead of raw pure capitalism then are we the US to support or not support????
Trump advisor Stephen Moore: "Capitalism's more important than democracy, I'm not even a big believer in democracy"
In the world of interrogation when someone attempts to massively deflect around something then that something becomes a serious point of interest....
When before the election all ties to Russia were somehow being totally overlooked by MSM and downplayed as just campaign rhetoric just as somehow the serious fact of Russian interference in the election whether via hacking and or WikiLeaks got totally buried when the Obama WH refused to push back and or acknowledge the Russian involvement even though there were actual Russian hacks of three voter databases in three different states....
So when something smacks of interference in three states and a recount is done which is completely totally 300% legal then this occurs...remember the election has not been called in the state of Michigan as it is still to close to call and a recount would be automatic there...
WHEN someone does a massive freaky series of tweets then one is hitting close to a raw nerve...the question is why????
Trump sent 9 tweets in the past 12 hours about the recount —someone has gotten under Trump's skin.
BTW...I have never seen the word Russia associated so much to a single US Presidential election as this one?????
Turkey, India, the Philippines: Trump's business conflicts overlap with list of critical FP hotspots
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/us/politics/donald-trump-internati…
Breaking: Tomorrow we are giving every member of the #electoralcollege the #DworkinReport on Trumps Russian Ties
Link to this document was posted here previously.
Ties go back to 1987 before the Wall fell.
Leaked memo shows Manafort "sabotaged US interests in Ukraine... plotted protest against NATO" via @thetimes
This is coming from Ukrainian Federal Judicial sources backed up with the original documents.....
What is interesting it that the original Ukrainian RP platform supporting Ukraine was deliberately changed by Manafort to an anti Ukraine position.
It is also interesting that the same Ukrainian sources have indicated they have original black book money payments for consulting services by Manafort that came up shortly before the election and was sidetracked when he supposedly left the Trump campaign....NOW it comes out he was still being paid even though he was not working actively...
THEN we have the confirmed visit to Paris of Trump's son talking to proRussian political sources....a meeting sponsored by Assad.....
Interesting is that the FBI still has not requested those Ukrainian documents that would and or could prove that Manafort was actively working as a "foreign agent" who did not legally register with the US....
Manafort and Carter Page are key cornerstones to the "Russian connection" with the Trump campaign...yet this somehow never played a role in the FBI initial checks when they stated they could find nothing tying them to "Russian connections" in the face of original Ukrainian documents..
NYT Sent Reporters/Photographers to 6 Nations and Dug Deep. Take a Look at TrumpWorld--and its foreign policy risks
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/26/us/politics/donald-trump-internationa…
18 DAYS after the election..why not before the election when social media was pointing this out for literally months on end....
Top ethics lawyers for Bush & Obama agree: Electoral College MUST REJECT Trump unless he sells his business
https://thinkprogress.org/electoral-college-trump-top-lawyers-8a8b6e0ca…
…
Trump's nat'l security advisor tells Tokyo that Trump values Japan, campaign remarks were rhetoric to win election:
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Trump-a…
"His actual policies after taking office would be different from what he said to galvanize his support base, Flynn predicted"
BUT WAIT did not Trump let his Arab business partners also know during the campaign that his so called rabid anti Muslim rants were just rhetoric?????
So was this the biggest con ever of US voters????
This article is interesting for a number of reasons...first it comes from FL where Trump is right now and secondly it is striking that Putin is able to get through to Trump when we wants to BUT a number of European leaders have indicated it was extremely hard if not difficult to get through to Trump..when they attempted to call and congratulate him.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article116799623.h…
The NATO SG and Merkel have invited him to Europe as has the Queen of England AND so far not a single response to the invitations BUT talk of a Putin/Trump meeting gets top billing by his Staff....
It is extremely dangerous for a US President to not hear the thoughts of EU/NATO leaders before he dashes off to talk to Putin.....
WHAT Trump has not realized is that he needs jobs and investment in the US and you do not want to slam the door shut on 500M potential customers of US products produced by US workers....
It is easy for the US to disengage from Europe...the core question is at what price to the US economy and US jobs and growth...AND SECURITY??????
ASK the US agricultural/chemical sectors if they can tolerate a disconnection????
"Steve Bannon’s data firm in talks for lucrative White House contracts." via @independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/cambridge-analytica-st…
SEEMS like the entire Trump inner circle is trying to make millions off the Presidency....
Kleptocracy hard at work.....
As I had previously posted the Trump FP will be largely driven by his business interests in those countries and he is as he states "above conflicts of interests"....
First he meets the Japanese PM together with his daughter.... both having businesses in Japan.....
THEN we have his direct meeting with his Indian business partners and then the social media photos being pulled off and the meeting which the Indians stated was long is suddenly just a few minutes.....
THEN we had his telephone call with the Argentina President and Trump's daughter and suddenly three days later construction permits for his buildings which had been tied up for over two years are approved seemingly overnight...in this call it has been reported Trump did in fact bring up the construction delays of his buildings...when leaked all parties denied ever saying anything but as a private call nothing was recorded as is standard as President
THEN we had his comments directed to the UK that they should select the UKIP ex leader as the UK Ambassador to US as they are good friends...
THEN we have in these same comments...his concerns about a wind park being built in Scotland near his golf course that he suggested be stopped....
THEN we have his son meeting proRussian and proAssad reps in Paris...
THEN we have his comments that his son-in-law would be a great bridge to get an Israeli/Palestinian deal done
AND THEN this with his name dropping of his Turkish partners in his call with Erdogon....
These stories are near constant now
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-turkey-business_us_583…
Kleptocracy hard at work it appears....
IT is almost like he does not need DoS any longer does it not????
As I had previously posted the Trump FP will be largely driven by his business interests in those countries and he is as he states "above conflicts of interests"....
First he meets the Japanese PM together with his daughter.... both having businesses in Japan.....
THEN we have his direct meeting with his Indian business partners and then the social media photos being pulled off and the meeting which the Indians stated was long is suddenly just a few minutes.....
THEN we had his telephone call with the Argentina President and Trump's daughter and suddenly three days later construction permits for his buildings which had been tied up for over two years are approved seemingly overnight...in this call it has been reported Trump did in fact bring up the construction delays of his buildings...when leaked all parties denied ever saying anything but as a private call nothing was recorded as is standard as President
THEN we had his comments directed to the UK that they should select the UKIP ex leader as the UK Ambassador to US as they are good friends...
THEN we have in these same comments...his concerns about a wind park being built in Scotland near his golf course that he suggested be stopped....
THEN we have his son meeting proRussian and proAssad reps in Paris...
THEN we have his comments that his son-in-law would be a great bridge to get an Israeli/Palestinian deal done
AND THEN this with his name dropping of his Turkish partners in his call with Erdogon....
These stories are near constant now
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-turkey-business_us_583…
Kleptocracy hard at work it appears....
IT is almost like he does not need DoS any longer does it not????
SO if the Trump FP in Syria is to support both Assad and Putin against IS..THEN is Trump actually now supporting IS.....APPEARS to be the fact....
Originally Posted by CrowBat
Turkish military says 3 soldiers killed,10 wounded in airstrike thought to be conducted by the Syrian regime
Along my own sources:
- The General Staff of the TSK confirmed an air strike by a single SyAAF L-39 Albatros on Turkish Army special forces deployed north of al-Bab, killing 3, critically injuring 1, and wounding 10 others.
- A single Assadist L-39 is known to have taken-off from Hama AB around 02.10hrs the last night (so much about Pentagon's assessments Assadists wouldn't fly by night).
EDIT: the Turkish SF unit in question was deployed on the frontline to the Daesh.
Means: this attack means that Assadists are flying CAS for the Daesh now.
Posted by Outlaw 09
News
#Turkey ordered a media blackout (gag order) on the alleged Syrian regime air strike on Turkish troops near al-Bab.
I assume it means that Turkey is interested in maintaining pre-determined understandings with Syria/Russia regarding hostilities in N Syria
Trump's FP will be driven by his children not the DoS.....
Trump's son went to Paris to talk about Russia's role in Syria, organized by pro-Bashar group endorsed by Kremlin
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-jr-held-talks-on-syria-with-ru…
Chemical Weapons use of Chlorine AGAIN AND the WEST and UNSC say not a single word do they?????
At least 13 people, mostly children, experiencing suffocation after regime drops chlorine-filled barrel bombs on Ard Hamra, besieged Aleppo.
For the 5th time this week Assad targets besiged #Aleppo w/ chlorine gas barrel bombs. 13 suffocation cases reported in Ard al-Hamra area
SO do we now see the US FP in Syria under Trump to be proAssad? AND then by extension the US FP WILL NOW BE for the use of CWs on civilians....
Trump's FP will be driven by his children not the DoS.....
Bill.....here is the problem.....a close advisor to Trump is reported to have said yesterday...we will have a radical domestic policy and a steady FP.
BUT this is naïve as US domestic politics also drives US FP.
SO you have a son drives Russian contact discussions as if he is a totally experienced diplomat.....
THEN you have constant Trump statements that he wants to work with Assad and Putin against IS.........
SO when this happens yesterday WHAT will the "steady FP" look like???
BreakingReport
An #Assad air force L-39 "Albatros" war plane hit and killed Turkish soldiers near al-Bab. TK F-16 on standby.
Unconfirmed!
Given the exceptional political gains associated, today, with those individuals and groups that espouse "backward-looking"/"revisionist" (and, essentially, "separatist?") concepts,
(Herein, I am thinking not only about President-elect Trumps' apparently backward-looking/ revisionist/separatist "Make American Great Again" rhetoric and related political success but, also, the seemingly similar rhetoric, and related political gains, which, before November 8, 2016, were most-often associated with the leadership of China, Russia, the Islamists, etc.),
Given these such -- common it would seem -- (a) backwards-looking/revisionist/separatist concepts and ideas; all of which, it would seem, have (b) resulted in significant political power and success -- in many important places in the world -- being transferred, or increased, to those that espouse same,
Then, based on this such "cause and effect" relationship/understanding, might we begin to contemplate that some kind of common foreign policy, also, might begin to exude from all of these such -- apparently like-minded -- backwards-looking/revisionist/separatist entities (to wit: China, Russia, the Islamists and, now, the U.S./the West also)?
Thus, foreign policies which might make conflict between these such entities (shall we call them, now with the U.S./the West joining in, "the brotherhood of backward-looking/revisionist/separatist entities?") much less likely?
Or, indeed, is the likelihood of conflict increased when everyone -- to include the U.S./the West now -- adopts such backward-looking/revisionist/separatist thoughts; for example, such as those associated with "Let's Make (America, China, Russia, the Islamic World, Great Britain, etc.) Great Again?"
Scoop by @WSJSolomon : Donald #Trump Jr. Held Talks on #Syria with #Russia supporters in Paris
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-t...ers-1479920753
Rogozin meeting Assad in Syria, says “main question" is to secure Russian business contracts for reconstruction:
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3802734
This is going to go over like a lead balloon in the ME and other countries ....just reinforces the overall perception that Trump and company are anti Muslim....and just about anti anything else not White....
JUST another example that what Trump stated during his campaign is in fact his FP.....no real need any longer to analyze where he is headed....
Priebus: Citizens of certain countries will be barred
http://politi.co/2fduRVq
Part of the problem with figuring out Trump's FP is Trump himself and his liberal use of lying or what after two long years of massive Russian propaganda and disinformation is now called the year of "Post Truth"...meaning lies count more than the truth does...
Perfect example of this lie/truth spinning...is this.....
Trump was charged in a massive Federal Court case with his Trump University for criminal fraud and criminal racketeering....the "truth" is the same Federal Judge he belittled as being a "Mexican" was demanding that Trump testify in front of a federal jury on the charges....AND Trump was doing everything possible to not testify publicly as that would hurt his image and brand....basically he was losing point after point in the process and was finally forced into court....and had run out of excuses to delay the trial....
BUT this is the example of Trump "Post Truth" and if he does it here how do we know he will not do it within his own FP and how can US allies even trust what he tells them...????
Valid question in the world of international affairs....
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 22h
22 hours ago
I settled the Trump University lawsuit for a small fraction of the potential award because as President I have to focus on our country.
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 22h
22 hours ago
The ONLY bad thing about winning the Presidency is that I did not have the time to go through a long but winning trial on Trump U. Too bad!
BUT having to pay 25M USDs to 23 individuals and a virtual admission by paying the settlement...THAT he in fact committed criminal fraud and criminal racketeering seems to go missing in the Trump tweets....does it not???
SO as a FM/President/Chancellor of another country knowing this do they ever trust Trump in what he tells them????
SUDDENLY all those photos of Trump's meeting with three Indian businessmen who are building a Trump Tower meeting in the NYC Trump Tower with Trump are "disappearing from the web"....
WHAT was a blatant disregard of the "conflicts of interest" Trump is getting us and himself into is rather interesting...goes to the heart of "kleptocracy"....ESPECIALLY since he claimed to be "draining the swamp"....
NICE...US FP driven by Trump's personal business needs....
Photos of Trump with Real Estate Partners from India are disappearing from view. No worries. We grabbed them.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/us/politics/donald-trump-pauses-trans…
…
That tradition of placing one's businesses in a total blind trust to protect a President from accusations of conflicts of interest that was massively thrown at Clinton...how's that going for President elect Trump...who seems to be unable to separate the two.....
Mr. Trump played host to three Indian business partners who are building a Trump-branded apartment complex, raising new questions about how he will separate business from politics.
IS there another set of standards for being a President that we somehow voted for during this last election that allows one's businesses to drive US FP.....?????
One cannot be above the rule of law when that rule of law applies to ALL...
Kleptocracy is now hard at work....exactly what the Russian oligarchs do...mix business..money... and politics...
'If you consider the ramifications of Trump not seeing U.S. as world leader of democracy, it changes everything'
http://en.hromadske.ua/articles/show/the_donald_trump_phenomenon
Syrian civil defense counts over 470 regime/Russian airstrikes on beseiged east #Aleppo since renewed offensive began days ago.
AND remember the Russian Putin spokesperson stated publicly "not bombing Aleppo"....
Syria Civil Defense...from today and the day is not over yet 58 KILLED and 100s WOUNDED and 100s of air strikes.....
"It's literally raining bombs".....
In the next 20 days over 250,000 civilians could die from #putin #ASSad bombing,starvation,etc in #Aleppo #Syria
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/....884dd1736077#
THIS is all Trump has to worry about as he becomes President as his bromance friend is killing hundreds
Donald J. Trump
Verified account
@realDonaldTrump
The Theater must always be a safe and special place.The cast of Hamilton was very rude last night to a very good man, Mike Pence. Apologize!
I am now on my rant for today....this lone photo coming via from Aleppo just now via a lone Aleppo activist thoroughly depicts the sad state of world affairs WHEN the entire WEST led by the US stays silent in the face of genocide...starvation and war crimes being carried out against a defenseless population that dared five years ago to stand up and state "we want the rule of law...and good governance and we are the majority of the country"...ALL those same values we the US claim are so important for a society....
SO have we actually scammed the world into believing that we believe our own values...OR do we as a society simply pay "lip service to those values"?????
This if anything is now proving to the entire world that the so called US values are nothing but a myth.
THROUGH the unwillingness of the US to support Syrians against the Assad and Putin genocide ARE we actually creating a far more serious terrorism threat 5...10...15 years down the road WHEN this child if he or she survives this....... asks themselves WHY do I need the West and are not they actually enemies of Islam as AQ and IS have told me over an over based on the simple fact they supported Assad and Putin when they were killing us by the hundreds not tens.....AND they ignored protecting us from genocide...a genocide AQ and IS has been telling us over and over is the US tactic to destroy all Sunni's....
Valid thoughts are they not with the constant genocide reports flowing in with video and photo evidence of war crimes being committed right in front of our faces.....
Somehow in the current heated US discussion of what is or is not freedom of speech...freedom from fear and the so called values of humanity and basic human rights...and one of them is to be able to simply be alive...WE have totally forgotten that.......AND in a so called heated fake debate about Islam in the US also driven by fearmongering and racism.....
Has the fear of 9/11 and a group of Takfirists driven that out of us...apparently it has.....one thing is for sure it has driven the concept of simple humanity out of the US English language....AND out of our FP.....
Am I ashamed of the position of my country in the face of genocide.....you bet I am and I defended this country for over 50 years against enemies near and far....HAS the US being living a myth actually a self delusional lie called "exceptionalism"....WHEN they deny others simple humanity......it certainly has....
Look at the photo and then tell me I am absolutely wrong...you cannot.....if humanity means anything to you.....
PHOTO IS POSTED ON THE SYRIAN THREAD
SOME URGENT insight for the so called great anti IS intel officer that he seems to not know what is ongoing in Syria and the entire ME yet he claims to be the greatest US intel officer of all times...former Gen. Flynn.....
AND this insight is coming from a very good SME on the ME.....WHO holds NO US security clearance BUT has access to information that the DoD and the IC seems to want to either not hear and or want.....
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
By “infighting,” I mean competition, outbidding & rivalry, *not* violent clashes.
Big developments inside JFS in #Syria, as infighting has erupted betw'n pro-AQ & pro-JFS elements.
Talks ongoing, rumors of possible split.
pt: JFS's internal tensions began during the Nusra-to-JFS formation, which was actively rejected by several very senior Nusra leaders.
pts: Most ‘rejectionists’ didn't publicly split from JFS, but have been working to convince JFS fighters to break away & form new AQ group.
pts: JFS's crisis reached its peak when “reformist” figures began pushing for further JFS “reforms,” thereby enraging AQ loyalists further.
NOTE: the current Trump and yes even Obama advisors have often overlooked that the Salafist groups are always discussing and modifying themselves internally and what was said/done two years ago is not what you see and hear now...there urgently needs to be engagement with this development NOT trying to simply kill them and or run from them.....these groups do respond to their supporting civilian societies regardless of what we in the US think....and right now JFS while no longer officially AQ is highly regarded by the Syrian people BECAUSE they are fighting to protect them against the Russian onslaught that Trump wants to work with THUS driving them straight the arms of JFS and indirectly IS....AND CAN we blame them for it???
THIS has been one of the most ardent arguments used by Obama WH WHEN the argument turned to arming the moderate Syrian FSA.....BUT TOTALLY SHREDDED by ground reality......
U.S. maintains relations with 80+ vetted FSA factions.
- 1,073 TOW missiles sent
- Only 12 were proliferated
12 single TOW missiles found their way to other groups...NOT a really big threat it would appear....ESPECIALLY since the TOW launcher was not part of the transfer....
AND this is the Trump declared partner he wants to defeat IS with along with his bromance partners Trump and Khameini……
So #Assad is bombing hospitals in #Aleppo to preserve freedom and western values? This at least was what the regime wants us to believe.
Set up and timing of the #Damascus conference weren't randomly chosen.
Goal was justification of war crimes and a number of US MSM types were there and a number of US Putin supporters as well……HELD JUST RIGHT AT THE US ELECTION TIME...STRANGE COINCIDENT RIGHT?
أطباء بلا حدود سوريا
✔
@MSF_Syria
The latest airstrikes in #Syria's east #Aleppo also left two key surgical hospitals and the largest general hospital out of service
طباء بلا حدود سوريا
✔
@MSF_Syria
Airstrikes in #Syria’s east #Aleppo destroyed 3 floors of the only specialised paediatric hospital in the city and left it out of service
Syria 250 airstrikes & 2000 artillery shells hit eastern parts of #Aleppo city since last midnight
Syria ~40 dead in #Aleppo city since morning bc heavy artillery shelling & airstrikes
Unreal footage.
#AssadPutin bomb hospital in #Aleppo today while nurses treat CW chlorine gas victims.
The evil of our time.
https://youtu.be/a0eqVMTUkIc
One of the #AssadPutin air strikes on #Aleppo yday hit a warehouse with the last food.
This is a #genocide.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkp4o7Z88Nw
JUST how is Trump and his current national security team going to address genocide WHEN they are on record for being anti Muslim....and anti Islam as Islam is an ideology instead of one of the three great world religions????
…
House of Usher: The head of the Ku Klux Klan gives an enthusiastic thumbs-up to early Trump appointments :
http://tinyurl.com/gwkrpw3
NOT a single pushback by the incoming President so does he actually agree with Duke????
IS the coming Trump FP being driven by the Trump businesses and or vice versa.....ALL need to thoroughly read this and REMEMBER just a week or so ago Trump was calling for "Drain the Swamp"...BUT WAIT he is the swamp now????
Banana republic watch. Foreign diplomats getting sales pitch on Trump hotel, figuring out how to curry favor. Day 10
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/2016/11/18/9da9…
Blatant conflict of interest seems to not bother anyone associated with and or Trump himself....this is going to be a long hard four years...
American democracy has become especially here in Europe ....a laughing stock...WITH every article such as above...AND do not believe Europeans are poorly informed on the US...even the common so called man in the street knows more about the US that vice versa.....
An article from a solid ME SME who knows Syria well.....and one the Trump admin should listen to.....BUT they will ignore them as they are ego based and believe they eat intelligence with a spoon when it comes to IS and AQ....
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
ICYMI: My latest article in @ForeignPolicy:
“Trump’s Syria Strategy Would Be a Disaster”
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/17/trumps-syria-strategy-would-be-a-di… …
It will if followed literally drive 100,000 well experience urban guerrilla fighters straight into the arms of JFS (AQ)....AND prove the JFS narrative to be totally correct with IS profiting from it as well....
WHAT Trump...Flynn...and the entire Obama WH does not want to admit....
Assad spent a decade building IS up, Russia doesn't bomb it: these are not CT partners
EVER notice just how Russia is pitching their FP plan for Ukraine based on Trump's own statements...the question is if in fact the Trump Ukrainian FP matches this THEN was Trump compromised by Russian intelligence....in 2012/2013 or earlier in say 1986.
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/3-step-strategy-trump-ukr…
The Skeptics
A 3-Step Strategy for Trump on Ukraine
There are few higher foreign policy priorities for the new Trump Administration than addressing the highly disruptive and potentially catastrophic conflict brewing sinisterly in Ukraine. The annexation of Crimea, as well as Russia’s continuing military initiatives in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region, represent egregious violations of international law. These actions have had a devastating impact on U.S.-Russian relations which have reverted to Cold War levels, undermining all constructive discourse.
Trump’s election campaign promised that, as President, he would initiate an entirely new approach to Russia, and deal with Putin and his inner circle by relying on his negotiating skills honed during his career in business. We believe that now is the time for Trump to take advantage of the opening afforded by his stunning election, and to approach Putin with a game changing proposal to deescalate the Ukrainian crisis, as well as to lay the foundation for a constructive program of reconciliation between the United States and Russia. The alternative — a continuation of the current policy — will only lead to further destabilizing rhetoric, a costly and dangerous arms build-up on both sides, and escalating military confrontations between NATO members and Russia.
The new Trump Administration can legitimately disavow prior U.S. policies which have so antagonized Putin, and which have been construed by Putin and his cohorts as threatening Russia’s vital national security interests. These include, in particular, NATO’s substantial eastern expansion since the end of the Cold War — increasing from 16 nations to 29 — as well as the foreign policy initiatives of the United States under the Clinton, Bush II and Obama Administrations. Actions in Serbia/Kosovo in 1999, in Iraq beginning in 2003, and in Libya in 2011, together with the “color revolutions” in former Soviet republics have been perceived by Putin as intended, directly or indirectly, to destabilize the current regime in Moscow. The prospect of Ukraine joining NATO was especially unsettling. Putin's address to the Russian Parliament on March 19, 2014, justifying the Crimean annexation, explained: “It would have meant that NATO's navy would be right there in this city [Sevastopol] of Russia's military glory and this would have created not an illusory, but a perfectly real threat to the whole of southern Russia.”
During the campaign, President-Elect Trump described the U.S. policies referenced above as deeply flawed, and he is ideally positioned to construct an entirely new U.S.-Russian relationship. The first order of business: Ukraine. In that regard, we suggest the following three-step strategy to begin the process of reframing relations:
1. First, Russia and the West should accommodate themselves to “agreeing to disagree” on the status of Crimea for the indefinite future. This was essentially the way in which the three Baltic countries were viewed diplomatically from 1940 through the demise of the USSR. It is hardly an elegant or an even satisfactory solution, but, at least, it is a doable one, justified by the on-the-ground reality.
2. Second, the parties must agree to maintain the status quo of Donbas as part of Ukraine, with an effectively enforced cease-fire.
3. Third, the United States, Europe, Russia and Ukraine should jointly evaluate and create a total aid package to achieve economic recovery in Ukraine. This should occur at the foreign affairs/secretary of state level. The premise is that the creation of an economically and politically viable Ukraine is in the long-term interest of all parties, including Russia. Addressing the “details” of formulating such an aid package may provide a framework for the parties’ resolution of underlying, and admittedly complicated, political issues. This initiative should come from the new Administration, as an early signal that Putin is not being ignored, and that the President-Elect wishes to work with him to restore the U.S.-Russia relationship to a constructive one.
Billions of dollars will be required for meaningful economic assistance for Ukraine, the distribution of which must be strictly monitored. This includes (a) monies for the restoration of infrastructure services; and (b) funds to compensate the tens of thousands of refugees and civilians still in their homes for their financial losses and injuries sustained.
Among the merits of this approach is that each party can devise its own formula, and articulated justification, for its share of the necessary monies to fund various projects.
That is, each party can define “success.”
Ukraine may characterize monies originating from Russia as an indirect “reparation” or its equivalent for the annexation of Crimea and the destruction wrought in eastern Ukraine. Russia, however, can view such funding as payments to create a reliable trading partner for Russia and/or to compensate Ukraine for foregoing special trade concessions offered from Europe. The ultimate status of Ukraine vis-a-vis the European Union can await later developments.
The current leaderships of Russia and the United States have very differing perspectives of their own national interests. That was also true during the Cold War period. After President-Elect Trump assumes office in January 2017, the proposed initiative outlined here, or some variation thereof, may provide a beginning for a path out of the ominous political quagmire, which now entraps both nations, and which poses an existential threat to the entire world.
Authors of the article....
Jeffrey Burt, James Hitch and Peter Pettibone served as partners of prominent international laws firms, heading the Soviet and Russian practices of Arnold & Porter LLP, Baker & McKenzie, and Hogan Lovells, respectively.
I don't find Ignatius' article particularly helpful, especially given that the title contradicts Ignatius' admission that Trump's foreign policy would be "difficult" to predict.
My own view is that Trump will focus on style over substance. Arguably, the Obama Administration's approach to foreign policy has been to encourage US allies and partners to take a greater interest in their own security, whether pressuring the Europeans to respond to Russian aggression in Ukraine or taking a supporting role in the Anglo-French-Qatari adventure in Libya or ignoring Saudi and Turkish calls for action over Yemen and Syria or encouraging East Asian allies to partner with India.
US allies have been taking greater charge of their security and have been working together more closely on regional threats, but Obama is still accused of "leading from behind" rather than "putting America first".
Trump would likely continue all of Obama's military and defense policies but sell them completely differently, and add a dash of showmanship when it comes to responding to Russia. What would that entail? Provocative military maneuvers, armed escorts for US spy aircraft, warship radar lock-ons, and random no-fly zones in response to Syrian atrocities that make the news...
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09
Trump's national security pick is a proponent of #torture & #warcrimes
http://bit.ly/2fKVEKc
And, Islamophobia...
http://nyti.ms/2fKUGOg
Quote:
(Washington) – President-elect#Donald Trump’s#choice of retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn for National Security Advisor demonstrates a deeply disturbing disregard for#human rights principles and the laws of war. Flynn has repeatedly endorsed proposals#by Trump that#would constitute torture and other war crimes.
“Michael Flynn has#shown a stunning contempt for the Geneva Conventions and other laws prohibiting torture,” said Sarah Margon, Washington director at Human Rights Watch. “By offering this key post to Flynn,#President-elect Trump is undermining US commitments to international laws that have been broken to America’s detriment.”
UNQUOTE
BTW...just a side comment..in 2005 and 2006 the US Army was under massive pressure by HRW for their actions in Iraq....in 2006 HRW was invited to the Army's National Training Center at Ft. Irwin CA and asked to ensure that the Iraq training scenario conformed to what they expected....BTW they were totally surprised we had invited them...thus began a very fruitful exchange for both... much to the surprise of HRW as they were provided unlimited access and input.....and the scenario they worked with us on was solid in the areas they foresaw to be problems as they had seen them in Iraq......suddenly the critique of the Army in Iraq by HRW stopped.
SO when they make this kind of statement public THEN I intently listen to them.....
Flynn always had an ego problem especially in Iraq...when he sidestepped the Chain of Command and released his critique of the intelligence community and then he basically failed to reform DIA and a number of his issues there led to his firing......
.@GenFlynn nixed Peter Pace, Bill McRaven, Jim Mattis and former House Intel chair Mike Rogers, reports @KellyO:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/power-tension-purge-insid…
Flynn's DIA firing not behind this right?????
AND our Trump FP for the ME will be greatly enhanced with this...right????
A Trump supporter suggests Japanese internment camps are precedent for a Muslim registry
http://read.bi/2eJYUJa
SO is he suggesting rounding up all Muslims in the US legal and illegal....
Trump…remember he said everything is going fine and the reports that western allies of the US were unable to contact as “false NYTs reporting”……WELL it was not false as he stated in his tweets…..TURNS OUT that the NATO SG is still trying to get a call into him…..
This is pretty glorious
https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/trump-jumps-shark?utm_term=.qoB4…
comment
twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/799191156802416640
Russia's Foreign Ministry says starting to contact Trump's team over Syria
http://www.interfax.ru/world/537450
Putin's Darling: Nat'l Security Advisor Flynn on Russian TV. Amazing that Republicans have decided they are OK with this. Party > Country
BUT WAIT.....engaged as a lobbyist for Turkey...and no conflict of interest there whatsoever is there???...he had recently suggested Gulen be deported from the US to Turkey....????
Trump adviser linked to Turkish lobbying and Russian propaganda arms
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/1...bbying-231354#