SWJ Odds and Ends

Abu Muqawama in DC -- Abu Muqawama. Nice meeting you AM, now I've met both of the dynamic duo. Also, the book drive is still going strong for the Afghanistan COIN Academy.

Abu Muqawama writes this post from Charlie's office.* We're about to head to the Afghanistan event as soon as she's done with a meeting. Abu Muqawama is sick with a wicked head cold and jet-lagged something fierce but quite happy all the same -- Dave over at Small Wars Journal loaded your humble blogger down with free books and DVDs today. Quite the "Welcome Back to America" present. Thanks, Dave! Speaking of free books, Abu Muqawama/Small Wars Journal readers have donated a total of 54 books (44 books + ten copies of FM 3-24) to the Afghanistan COIN Academy thus far. You guys are amazing! (You can still give, here.)

Also, a great big Hat Tip to Air Force Major General Charles Dunlap for his nice donation towards books for the Academy.

Iran's Ramazan Corps and the Ratlines into Iraq -- The Long War Journal. Bill Roggio offers up the most detailed description and analysis I've seen so far on Iran's support to Iraqi insurgents.

The issue of Iranian complicity in the Iraqi insurgency has been contentious since US and Iraqi forces began heavily targeting the Iranian networks in late 2006. While news reports have touted Iran's role in reducing the violence, US military officers believe Iran still serves as a source of weapons and fighters in Iraq.

The Long War Journal has spoken to several mid-level and senior US military and intelligence officers, all of whom have declined to go on the record due to the sensitive nature of the Iranian issue. Based on these conversations as well as other information, The Long War Journal has learned the nature of the Qods Force operations in Iraq and how they move resources into the country...

Window on a War -- From an Anthropological Perspective. Dr. Marcus Griffin on the Human Terrain System in Iraq and the CORDS program in Vietnam.

I've been trying to shake a chest cold brought on by the dramatic fluctuation in temperature from mid day to mid dawn in Baghdad. Since I don't want to share my germs in a humvee, I am largely reading and thinking about our effort. I re-read some of Gerry Hickey's Window on a War: an Anthropologist in the Vietnam Conflict. I was struck by the parallel I see between the war here and the war back then and how some things just don't change...

The Culture Warriors -- Anna Mulrine, U.S. News and World Report. More on the Human Terrain System and the importance of a cultural knowledge base to act on by counterinsurgents.

... The Army began training social science recruits for Iraq this year, christening the teams with a classic military appellation—human terrain system. The name may not be an attention-grabber, but the mission has been: The teams act as advisers to brigades, mapping the relationships (human terrain in military parlance) of the power players and the local people. "How do they tie into each other? It's not always obvious," says Verdon. The teams also examine how tribal leaders relate to U.S. troops, she adds. "How are they leveraging what they have to maintain their power, to be able to get what they need from coalition forces?"

The military has come late to appreciate the role that social connections play in Iraqi society, where divisions are not just geographic or religious but also familial and tribal. Understanding those kinds of connections, a key aim of anthropology, can be critical to forging alliances, assessing intelligence—and, military officials add, avoiding unintended consequences...

Tom Barnett dissects Iran's decision not to pursue nuclear weaponization at his must read blog.

The fact that Iran stopped its weapons program on nukes back in 2003 indicates the Iranians felt the same fears that Libya faced in light of our invasion of Iraq, so message received.

But it's also clear that pursuing the enrichment of uranium is not simply about getting access to nuclear-powered generation of electricity. If Iran wants that, it can achieve that under conditions more acceptable to the global community. By pursuing the enrichment on its own terms, Iran sends the strong signal that it retains the right to pursue nuclear weapons under whatever conditions it sees fit...

Max Boot deconstructs the Iran National Intelligence Estimate over at Commentary's Contention blog.

... I agree with the conclusion reached in Gabe's second post that there probably was political calculation behind the NIE, and if so it comes out in the language chosen by its authors. As pointed out by reader Ben Orlanski, and quoted by Gabe, the wording of the NIE is hardly neutral. The lead sentence—"We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program"—is designed to convey an impression that we don't have to worry much about Iranian nukes.

The second sentence, claiming that Tehran's decision was "directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure" is designed to convey the impression that diplomacy is sufficient to keep Iranian ambitions in check and that no bombing is needed—even though, if Iran really did halt its weapons program in 2003, it must surely have done so in response to the U.S. invasion of Iraq, not to any diplomatic gambit on our part...

Turning to Africa, Clay Varney discusses a clash between State and Defense on Somalia policy at ThreatsWatch.

With the backdrop of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates visiting American forces in Djibouti, the Washington Post is reporting on an internal debate among administration decision makers regarding the course of American policy in Somalia and in the Horn of Africa more broadly. The violence and instability currently taking place is a major threat to the region as it may offer the possibility of al-Qaeda gaining a safe haven in Somalia. According to the report, the Pentagon is agitating toward moving to support Somaliland, the more stable northwestern portion of Somalia that declared its independence in 1991, though this has not been recognized internationally. As a contrast, the State Department supports the continued backing of the Transitional Federal Government based in Mogadishu...

Westhawk has more on the Gates trip and on more problems for the nation-state.

During his tour this week of the front lines of the Long War, in the Horn of Africa and Afghanistan, U.S. Defense Secretary Gates has no doubted asked for some creative thinking from his subordinates about how to make progress on the intractable problems found there. It seems as if his military officers on the front lines have an answer for him, an answer not at all pleasing to career diplomats at the State Department, or anyone else favoring the Westphalian nation-state tradition...

Dr. David Betz on Frank Hoffman on civil-military relations over at Kings of War.

Frank Hoffman is the clearest thinker on contemporary security matters that I know. He has a piece in the latest Armed Forces Journal on US civil-military relations which will I'm sure get a few people lathered up. While Iraq and Vietnam are very different conflicts, there is a chance that their respective aftermaths may conform to similar patterns of scapegoating, blame-avoiding, and willful institutional refusal to recognize and act on the sources of defeat. Hoffman doesn't pull any punches...

All for now.