by Tristan Abbey and Scott Palter
Download The Full Article: Turmoil in North Africa: Lessons for European Defense
That the second decade of the 21st-century will end with neither Ben Ali in charge of Tunisia nor Hosni Mubarak ruling in Egypt should come as no surprise. After all, the former was born in 1936, the latter in 1928. The ancient Roman poet Horace reminds us: "Pale death, impartial, he walks his round; he knocks at cottage-gate and palace-portal." Whether by revolution, orderly succession, or a knock at the door, both men were bound to pass from the scene in the near future.
Amid all the analysis and projections--about the Muslim Brotherhood, the potential domino effect throughout the Muslim world, prospects for Israel and the United States, and so forth--recent events should also provide a warning to European defense planners. The scenes on the streets of Cairo could be repeated across the Maghreb in the coming years. Given global economic turbulence and volatile commodity prices, buying off the huddled masses in Morocco, Algeria, and Libya may prove beyond the power of those regimes. Political collapse in those countries--or in Tunisia and Egypt, down the road--could spark an exodus of refugees heading north, far worse than the present situation in places like Malta, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Imagine hundreds of thousands of desperate people setting sail in anything that floats and heading for the nearest European shore.
Download The Full Article: Turmoil in North Africa: Lessons for European Defense
Tristan Abbey, a graduate of Georgetown's Security Studies Program, and Scott Palter, president of Final Sword Productions, are senior editors at Bellum: A Project of The Stanford Review.
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Interesting thought piece. The historical record is replete with examples of mass migrations and the disruption they can cause as well as the opportunities they can provide. The Indo-European migrations, to include the Volkerwanderung (towards the end of the Roman Empire), and the many waves of migrant populations arriving upon American shores, immediately come to mind. Migration then does not only have to contribute to the fall of societies but can also build them.
Perhaps planners, from both the governmental and business communities, should be considering how to build opportunities in the areas discussed. The Chinese model in Africa is a recent example of this type of thinking. Continuing to encourage rule of law and economic development work now, as opposed to reacting to mass migrations later may result in benefits for all concerned.