The government has warned airlines that terrorists are considering surgically implanting explosives into people in an attempt to circumvent screening procedures, according to U.S. officials. (1)
Of specific concern is "...al Qaeda's Yemeni chapter, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula..." which has "...an interest in recruiting a surgeon to implant explosives in the body of a suicide bomber to circumvent airport detection equipment and detonate an explosive device on an aircraft." (2)
This is not viewed as an immediate threat per the news report—"There is no intelligence pointing to a specific plot, but the U.S. shared its concerns last week with executives at domestic and international carriers, The Associated Press reported." (3)
Earlier rounds of media reports concerning this threat and Al Qaeda's ongoing interest concerning refining this capability have appeared over the last 18 months or so— hence today's media reports do not appear overly unique.
The reason I'm posting this note is that I did the initial strategic forecasting of this specific terrorist TTP back in September 2006. Over the course of a few years I refined this forecast and provided it to numerous law enforcement and homeland security audiences.
In May of 2010 I wrote an OSINT (open source) report on this threat that was subsequently published in March 2011 at GroupIntel (www.groupintel.com). That paper contains a November 2010 addendum that updated the initial research and a foreword and preface by Matt Devost and John P. Sullivan respectively. The title and a link to this 55-page paper are provided below:
The Projected Al Qaeda Use of Body Cavity: Suicide Bombs Against High Value Targets
The paper represents a useful background brief on this threat and hopefully places the ongoing media reports concerning this Al Qaeda TTP within the larger context of evolving patterns of suicide bombings directed at high value targets. Of specific interest should be the forensic analysis undertaken by David Kuhn concerning the Abdullah Al-Asiri Incident that took place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on 28 August 2009. The threat of body cavity bombs is very real and should not be discounted out of hand simply due to its humorous nature or past attempts by some governments to overly minimize— even deny— the dangers this suicide bombing evolutionary development represents.
Dr. Robert J. Bunker
Notes:
1. Christi Parsons, "TSA warns of possible airline threat involving implanted bombs". Los Angeles Times. 6 July 2011.
2. CBS/AP, "U.S.: Terrorists may surgically implant bombs". CBS NEWS, 6 July 2011.
3. Ibid.
Comments
Robert, Sadly your threat projection is bearing fruit. The threat vehicle(s) is/are a realistic concern; but the real lesson is in the value of strategic foresight and early warning that we collectively pioneered at the LA TEW and now continue in multiple fora. Let's hope we can contain this threat! Keep up the assessments! JPS