Strategist Kilcullen: Warfare Is Changing In 3 Ways - NPR interview (audio).
Comments
War is a racket for contractors, and they'll continue to throw stuff out until they find something the government is willing to pay big money for. There is little new in this article, and while the democracy of technology is a very important trend that has been discussed for years, and I don't it is limited to urban populations as Kilcullen states. Urbanization has been happening since the age of industrialization, and the military has been exploring that topic deeply. I'm really at a loss to find anything really innovative in this presentation. I wonder if we can make a lot of money stating the obvious to a clueless interviewer? :-)
What is interesting is that one of the main strategists for the "surge win" next to General P---seems to be backing away from COIN being conducted in any near future as he sees insurgent types events happening in larger cities or as he says--one's that shallow the Army and still the population would not see them.
What is strange about the interview is Dr. K's comments on the use of the internet as an example of technology and how technology is driving insurgent activities.
Some of us have been saying since 2005 that in fact all tactics used in UW/guerrilla warfare is actually nothing new from a tactics perspective, and some of us especially those that dealt with Iraqi insurgents in 2005 have been saying that it was the internet and internet downloaded CDs that were driving the technological advances we were seeing on the ground already in 2005.
So now in 2013 Dr. K is just now seeing that advance? examples---IED curcuits were being passed, use of IR as IED detonators, EFP TTPs were being passed, RKG anti tank grenade usage, use of CK5 rockets as anti vehicle weapon systems, and their tactics were passed, swarm attack tactics were passed, entire training manuals were passed from 2005 through to 2010---so why is the passing of rocket firing data so technologically speaking something new?
Why is the making of multiple rocket launchers in the backyard so new---in 2005 in Diyala we were seeing excellently made single rocket launchers being turned out in machine shops in the car repair shops of Baqubah---the design for them was passed via the internet by the IAI mid 2005.
The argument that fighting is cities will be the way forward--why is that a new argument---most guerrilla wars of the 20th and 21st centuries have always been fought to a large degree in cities---why---that is where the bulk of the population lives--nothing new there.
Insurgents of all stripes have not forgotten the simple historical rule---who controls the capital controls the country.
What surprised me as well was the comments on the fact that it appears the surge was "won" in the Baghdad fighting or as he said where 50% of the fighting was occurring---is he trying to say those BCTs that fought AQI, IAI, Revolution 1920, Ansar al Sunnah in Anbar, Syrian border, Mosul, Diyala somehow were not in the fight?
Baghdad was the center of the ethnic cleansing nothing more nothing less---actually for all the fighting in Baghdad those BCTs never stopped the rat runs that went to or came from Baghdad, nor stopped the flows of FFs nor stopped the various insurgents both Shia and Sunni from coming into Baghdad at will so to argue that "somehow" the surge was won in Baghdad is an interesting take on history.
While I am glad that NPR decided to air this I did not get much new out of it. People make money in wars and have a vested interest in prolonging wars to make money. That is nothing new. Nor does it explain war. I have to say that the only thing helpful I learned is that Kilcullen has a very slight Australian accent.