If the Arab Spring Wasn't Dead Already, It is Now by Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post
For well over a year now, the Arab Spring has struggled on life support, doomed to die with barely a whimper. Instead, it ended definitively with the bang of U.S. airstrikes in Syria, coordinated with five of the Arab world's most authoritarian states. The long winter of a protracted war with the Islamic State and affiliated jihadists now seems here to stay.
There was a time when the White House genuinely had hope that people power and pro-democracy uprisings could reshape the Middle East. In a famous speech in May 2011, President Barack Obama likened the dramatic self-immolation of a fruit seller in Tunisia, which triggered protests that toppled a long-ruling autocrat, to the defiance of Rosa Parks and the agitators of the Boston Tea Party…
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Our belief that we might, quickly and easily, transform the states and societies of the Middle East and elsewhere (1) via the populations (rather than via the regimes) and (2) by way of concepts (such as "universal values" and "shinning houses") rather than through force of arms; these such ideas/approaches do appear to be dead.
The majority of these folks, it appears, do not aspire to be westerners or western-like and do not desire to live their lives according to western precepts.
This suggesting that it will take (1) the utilization of oppressive/odious regimes and (2) the employment of force of arms (both of which we now see being brought to bear in the Middle East) to achieve "our" (not "their") desired ends.
In the American Civil War, there may have been a certain number of Southerners who thought that their way of life -- and their values, attitudes and beliefs -- were, cir. 1860, outdated/improper.
But this was not the belief of the majority of the Southerners -- who would rise up -- almost as a civilization -- when their way of life, values, etc., were challenged.
This similar phenomenon, I believe, is what we are witnessing today in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Thus, while the pro-western "reformers" may ultimately prevail -- it will not be done, it appears, quickly or easily. Nor will it be done, it appears, via the few members of the population who believe that western-like reforms are worth fighting and dying for.
To conclude: When unwanted state and societal transformation is the requirement, then force of arms and odious/oppressive regimes would seem to be -- as they were during the American Civil War and again presently -- the order of the day.
(Such approaches as BPC? A further acknowledgement that it will be take odious/oppressive regimes and force of arms -- rather than willing populations inspired by western examples -- to achieve our generally unwanted state and societal transformation goals.)
Now what is the US strategy when Syrian refugees in say Lebanon are burned out of their tents and pictures of US military vehicles provided to the Lebanese Army are seen at the site.
We have a strategy that is all over the map.
URGENT – Lebanese Army Commits New Crimes against Defenseless Syrian Refugees – 25/9/2014
REPORT http://greatersyria.wordpress.com/2014/09/25/defensless
Tend to agree with Robert---the so called "Arab Spring" is far from over--if you look at the Far East and Middle East---there are roughly 22 semi and or totally failed states, and the other half is under authoritarian government of one nature or another.
The only real products produced is oil and gas in most of those countries, even though there are over 350M in populations in those countries, and the economies have largely stagnated and or not even developed.
the KSA is not answering the challenge to explain the similarities between the fundamentalism of IS and their Whabbaism and it took the senior Sunni cleric in the KSA over two months to make his first statement on the Is fundamentalism and the senior Sunni cleric in Egypt stated IS was a "Israeli conspiracy" to weaken the Arab world.
Do not think for a moment the reasons many populations went into the streets of the "Arab Spring" have disappeared.
AND by the way the US needs to rethink the impact of the bombing campaign is this is in fact occurring---the clearing, arresting and burning of Syrian refugee camps inside Lebanon.
https://twitter.com/Conflict_Report/status/515052905247014912
If one thinks more about it---does the US bombing of Syrian oil refineries controlled by IS- really cut the oil revenue for IS?--why not take it anther step and bomb the countless oil pipes that lead into Turkey? As Turkey is by far a larger importer of IS oil than is Assad. Or better yet why not bomb the countless truck loads of munitions that have headed into Iraq for IS from Turkey.
A far bigger question is when all is said and done and the dust settles--who is going to pay for the rebuilding of Syria? Certainly not the Sunni insurgent side if they win --they have no money and if Assad--why would he rebuild the Sunni areas of Syria? And the end game---just how are the over 3M refugees residing outside Syria going to go home--when they is nothing there for them as all has been virtually destroyed.
Rebuilding the destroyed housing and infrastructure of Syria could create the largest building boom to hit the ME--but that will never happen as long as Assad is around and I do not see the West picking up the tab for the Sunni side as they will argue they do not have the money.
Wow, just got a flashback to Kandahar 2009, and Colonel Harry Tunnell telling a couple of us that his Stryker BDE had "defeated the Taliban in the Argendab."
Arab Spring is not "Arab", nor is it "Spring" - and it certainly is not over.
Ever hear of the "Young Turks"? This really started moving with the Constitutional Revolutions in Iran and Turkey in 1906/08; was suppressed by WWI and European colonization, then again by WWII and Western containment.
in 2010 it re-emerged in Tunisia, but will not be "over" until the governance of the region evolves in the context if the expectations of the people of the region.
coming to the Arabian Peninsula next...
Maybe what died was the range of irrational expectations that the Arab Spring produced in the West. The events were significant; we don't yet know where they will lead as they are still playing out. Anyone who expected a vast outbreak of democracy to bloom across the region was in the grip of delusion in the first place.