How We Got to the Syria Mess - Washington Post
Americans and Europeans are seeing the results of four years of U.S. disengagement in the Middle East. A country destroyed, with half its people displaced from their homes. Hundreds of thousands of refugees besieging an unready Europe. And now, Russian warplanes bombing U.S.-allied forces as American officials alternate between clucking reprovingly and insisting bravely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be sorry in the end. That is a tempting dream, but it represents the same wishful thinking that got us here in the first place.
How did we get here? It’s worth recalling, briefly, a bit of history. When Secretary of State John F. Kerry took office at the beginning of President Obama’s second term, he argued that Syria could be saved only with a political solution: The United States did not want to repeat its Iraq mistake and chase President Bashar al-Assad and his regime out of office with nothing to take their place. But, he said, the regime would not negotiate seriously until its opposition was strengthened, and so Mr. Kerry and others in the administration favored U.S. assistance, including training for the rebels, protection of safe zones where they could begin to govern without fear of Mr. Assad’s barrel bombs and chlorine gas, some arms and other military aid.
Mr. Obama would never agree; or rather, sometimes he agreed, and failed to follow through, and sometimes he just said no. Mr. Kerry was left with no option but diplomacy, in particular begging Russia and Iran to bail him out…
Comments
I can't even see what a Russian "victory" in Syria would look like. All the West has to do is wait for the stalemates in the Donbass and Syria to be perceived as defeats and for Russia's economy to continue to hemorrhage.
I don't see MANPADs or SAMs appearing in rebel hands, however, due to the reasonable fears that they could be used against NATO or civilian aircraft if they fall into the wrong hands.
Certainly, the West is ensuring that Assad is incapable of launching a ground offensive without losing a prohibitive amount of armor. Note that despite the Russian focus on rocket artillery and tanks, ATGMs were the decisive weapons in both the South Ossetia War and the recent incursion in the Donbass.
Given this intractable situation, here are my recommendations:
1. Continue to supply the FSyA with ATGMs, small arms, non-lethal aid and of course as much ammo as they can carry
2. Continue to train and equip the Peshmerga
3. Continue the aerial bombardment of ISIS combined with more aggressive special forces raids
4. Provide much more humanitarian aid for the refugee camps in Jordan and Turkey and be prepared to help rebuild the country
5. Promise asylum and immunity for Assad if he agrees to a transitional government
And if you're determined to come in on the Sunni side of this war:
6. Make a major campaign to reinforce the anti-Hezbollah factions in Lebanon
7. Threaten Iran with fuelling internal rebellions (Kurdish, Azeri, Balochi, Sunni) in order to dampen the flow of resources
8. Encourage Pakistan to get into the anti-Iranian fray
Aroz--Putin is rapidly reaching a single point of total failure--right now his RuAF is really only managing 33-45 air strikes a day and the civilians loses are mounting and it is finally getting major social media coverage AND his multi front offensive has basically failed.
If he keeps ups the steady air attacks against civilians and the numbers of YouTube videos of killed children and women really start impacting the Sunni Front States MANPADs will start surfacing and that will eliminate any air advantage Assad and Putin currently have.
We have now seen that cycle with the Russian FAGOT ATM--the rebel groups had tons of missiles but not many launchers now new launchers seem to be suddenly everywhere. AND they know how to use them as equally good as the TOW and it has a lower profile that needs to be hidden.
Several 9K111 Fagot hits reported in Ghab, Aleppo & Latakia y'day.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=waS4W4dewpM …
https://youtube.com/watch?v=cSP6-9Mx7_A …
https://youtu.be/DoMo9aKHJkM
And one of these was a night time shot----
I agree that the ATGMs have created facts on the ground i.e. refurbished T72s with upgraded Russian kit and Iranian, Lebanese or Cambodian operators are getting smoked every time they take a peak over a hill or from behind a building.
Yet while Youtube is rife with video after video of Assad's armour getting blown sky high and often cooking, the MSM hasn't seem to have caught on. Now that the FSyA has been forged into an effective ground force - at least superior to Assad's if the air support wasn't there - the MSM has written off the rebels as crypto-ISIS and cowards. Basically the rebels have been lumped in with ISIS or the Iraqi Army, which couldn't handle Abrams tanks and F16s let alone a simple TOW. Both Bill Maher and Donald Trump have written off the FSyA, to give you an idea of the popular bipartisan sentiment. Yet somehow someone in the Pentagon or Langley is keeping them going...
Azor---highly correct assumption--really if one thinks about it until the entire realm of Islam goes through it's own Reformation I think we are seeing actually right now a 100 Years War and it appears the entire ME is imploding as we see a true showdown between the Sunni and Shia for regional hegemony--you are correct Iraq triggered it.
Outlaw 09:
It's obvious that the Muslim world is in the throes of its own version of the Thirty Years War that ravaged continental Europe in the 17th Century. In this context, Operation Iraqi Freedom was a tragic error, although not an apparent one at the time. OIF lit the match in a tinderbox of arbitrary state borders, underdeveloped national identities, warlords masquerading as general officers, terrorism, and of course, extreme sectarian hatreds.
And just like during the Thirty Years War, as outside powers struggled for advantage, their interference only came back to haunt them. Moreover, just as the uninvolved powers benefited (England, Russia, the Netherlands), China is expanding its economic clout in the region.
No wants to or is in a position to deal with this conflict. Any solutions would upset the international order and balance of power, and if the conflagration can be contained so much the better.
Perhaps Obama has been overly cautious, although I think the Europeans' overreach in Libya contributed greatly. Basically the strategy of striking ISIS and providing low-level support to the Kurds and FSyA, as well as overall humanitarian aid is likely the smartest one. The idea of the "Pacific Pivot" was a sound one, but it will remain an idea until the US can extricate itself from the quagmire of Muslim Arab civilization imploding.
In both the Ukraine and Syria--the western MSM has not been in the information war fight for a single minute in the last 18 months.
It appears that the MSM has a hard time understanding the Russian and now Syrian "narratives" and pushing back.
Social media has stepped in and is far more effective even with their daily glitches than the all powerful MSM.
When you have the entire Russian info warriors and Syrian info warriors focusing strictly on you and social media then you are in fact driving the "narrative" and countering info warfare.
This has been done by a dedicated band of merry warriors who earn not a single dime for their efforts and it is the dime that drives MSM.
Bellingcat has revolutionized open source analysis, as well a merry band of ten twitter accounts and or bloggers are now engaging Russia in ways most western leaders have not figured out how to.
Russia Today has created an entire arm dedicated to refuting @thedailybeast reporting on RT:
https://russian.rt.com/fiction_fact
https://russian.rt.com/fiction_fact
This on top of a massive spamming campaign targeting several twitter accounts and the thousands of Russian now Syrian trolls.
I AM UNDER CONSTANT SPAMMING ATTACK FOR EIGHT DAYS NOW AND @TWITTER @SUPPORT DIDN'T DO ANYTHING TO EASE THE SITUATION.
UNABLE OR UNWILLING?!
So after a lot of articles on non linear warfare, talk about UW and information warfare--where are the western nations in their info war pushback--nowhere to be seen.
That has contributed to the mess we are in--let's accept at least that.
Azor--more indicating the depth of the Sunni Shia war in the ME that our last two Presidents seemed to not fully understand.
BTW--the Iranian KH--has a ton of American blood on their hands as they were the main drivers of the EFP IED campaign against US troops that killed, wounded and or maimed hundreds.
BTW--these videos and follow on social media comments have not appeared in US MSM.
Breaking: Kata'ib Hizballah announced via video their brigades are in #Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgMwrX-nVOE&feature=youtu.be
This was after many in the MSM denied that the Iranians would stand by they statements of sending in between 1-2K troops.
But hey Obama "hopes" Iran will "mellow".
Brought with them all their T72s carrying reactive armor-----
Kata'ib Hizballah was slowly releasing info they deployed units to #Syria since August.
In my latest @WashInstitute policy watch, I mentioned recent reports of KH deployments to #Syria: [url]https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-iraqi-sh…] …
KH claimed it has thousands of fighters. Deployments to Syria make sense in moves of bigger pic Iraqi Iran proxies.
KH also has personnel deployed to Yemen augmenting the Qods Force and LH personnel in-country...
BTW--the KSA has recently captured IRGC and KH personnel in Yemen which confirms the above comment---
Russian/Syrian information warfare is getting extremely serious now on Twitter--this never happened during the Ukraine events SO why is it that social media is so suddenly threatening to Russia, Syria and Iran???
Entering week 2 of the @twitter hacking scandal and giant #spam attack vs. me.
600+ reported.
No @Support so far...
Remember Twitter has Russian oligarch investment money in the hundreds of millions.
Maybe because it is the only source of "truth" and fights their "narrative" since MSM has basically stopped critical reporting on the Ukraine, Syria and Yemen.
Azor--you have to admit there is something to this social media comment---especially since we now have two superpower AFs in the fight over Iraq and Syria..........
Which slogan seems more realistic?
The US-led coalition's "to degrade and to destroy"
Or the Islamic State's "to remain and to expand"
Really really worth listening to..................as he gets into the Russian involvement------
Hassan Hassan @hxhassan
.@michaeldweiss goes to Texas to chat about Isis and dazzles the educated crowds
http://www.c-span.org/video/?328702-4/michael-weiss-isis …
During his visit to IRGC General Hamedani's family home, Iran's SL Khamenei holds newest edition to the Hamedani family.
This depicts the extreme closeness between Khomeini's follow on and the IRGC.
IRGC General Hamedani was killed fighting in Syria in the current Iranian/Russian offensive against the "Islamic State" but first they are attacking the FSA before IS.
He is one of 8 high ranking IRGC and Hezbollah Commanders killed in the last ten days in Syria along with a bunch of COLs.
Remember the IRGC views themselves as the defenders of "Revolutionary Islam".
WHICH Obama hopes will "mellow" in the coming years??
Azor--it is the mess of the current administration as well as the Bush 43 years for not fully understanding the coming Sunni Shia War that was bound to come based on Khomeini's call for Revolutionary Islam in 1979, by the Iranian Hezbollah march into Lebanon, the "Khomeini Green Crescent doctrine" and the regional hegemony drive of Iran in the ME.
It was all there for the last two Presidents to fully see YET they failed to "understand it".
Now for what it is worth and many here will potentially reject it--we now have a fully fledged Sunni Shia War that has taken on global aspects especially from the side of Iranian Shiaism.
We have major Sunni Shia combat in Yemen--AND just how many Americans reading their daily MSM or watching the local news even know there is a full scale war going on in Yemen.
With Syria it is the same thing-just how many Americans reading their MSM or listening to local news fully understand that the Syria Army has the name "Syrian Arab Army".
Even I learned something in the last weeks from social media and yes I do support fully monitoring social media--on the Syrian thread a commenter "Crow Bat" based in the UK kept ringing the proverbially bell--the "SAA is neither Syrian nor Arab" and it has been that way for over two years now BUT the West fully ignores it.
What he meant was then reflected in an analysis by what Bill M terms illegitimate sources-- an off the wall alternative source---that thoroughly analyzed the SAA AND behold--the SAA is in fact a true mercenary army composed of over 12 different Shia national groups from over 12 different countries (and yes even Cambodia is in the mix) --many if we truly looked at each of them we would declare them as terrorist orgs.
Yes there are small numbers of conscripted Christians, Alewites and Sunni in the SAA but limited in numbers when compared to the big numbers of Shia from outside Syria.
We are now seeing the reverse with the KSA calling in military units from Sunni countries such as the Sudan to help fight in Yemen.
Where was that mentioned in most of your standard American MSM?---absolutely nowhere.
So now not only in Yemen is the Sunni Front States and Iran mixing it up BUT also in Syria and Iraq. AND yes even Iran is mixing it up in AFG through their Shia minority WHO by the way is also fighting in Syria.
So yes both past Presidents should fully share the blame for the mess in Syria--but Obama more so as he had three chances to actually do something and he turned a blind eye as he did not want to get involved.
From the perspective of realpolitik, I fail to see why Syria is an American mess.
Syria is Iran's closest ally and its formidable air defenses complicated any strikes being contemplated by the US or Israel. Yet now, instead of augmenting Iran's power, Syria is a drain. Hezbollah is in no position to threaten Israel whilst the war continues, and Syria has effectively been removed from the chessboard.
Speaking of removal, Syria's chemical weapons stockpile has also been eliminated.
Moreover, American's "partners" in the region, upset about the nuclear deal, get to fight Iran in a contained proxy war without disturbing the Strait of Hormuz. And Turkey gets to play regional power rather than be relegated to begging to be let into the EU or being an "ally" of Israel. Finally, Russia is now bogged down, which will prevent Moscow running interference on other US endeavors.
Yes, we could have tried to establish no-fly zones, but the SEAD campaign would have been more extensive than even OIF. We would have essentially had to go to war with Syria. Even now, the anti-ISIS coalition still must have an "arrangement" with Assad to ensure pilot safety.
Yes, we can better train and equip the Kurds. Yet this would enrage Ankara and Baghdad and Tehran. And yes the Kurds are interested in protecting themselves, but they are in no position to liberate all of Syria.
So Wapo really has no good ideas. On the one hand, people don't want America to intervene. On the other, America has to solve all of the world's problems.
Based upon what was a brief outpouring of sympathy for Syrian refugees, Angela Merkel has created fundamental changes in Europe that will have ramifications for decades, even though the news cycle has largely moved on to other issues. Is Obama to blame for that as well?
And it is not about the entire ME oil and gas?---think again and that includes four major pipelines that either run through and or near Syria.
Russia and Iran to Conduct Joint Naval Exercises on the Caspian Sea
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-and-iran-to-conduct-joint-naval-ex… …
If you have followed the Russian moves about the Caspian Sea and their virtual control of the Black Sea and now the Crimean moves--there is a clear Russian strategy at work.
Now do you see the alliance that is forming in the ME--Russia is full in on the Shia side.
The oil and gas of the entire ME --notice Russia did not chastise the General for his comments---let's see Obama states and it is often repeated that he "felt" that Iran would become more moderate if the sanctions were lifted and it could rejoin the international community and it would turn away from it's expansive hegemon drive in the ME.
Does this appear to be an Iran becoming more "moderate as Obama states he hopes for"????
BreakingClaim
#Iranian-backed US #ally vs. #ISIS "Kata'ib Hezbollah" arrives in #Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1BmCJQRsy2E&feature=youtu.be …
So was he again "right"--not really as he totally forgot the Iranian drive with their version of revolutionary Islam as declared by Khomeini in 1979.
Bill--lets see the Chinese Navy did not come but what was the Chinese statements concerning those posts--actually they stated not much of anything did they not?
Remember there is an old international relations concept--if one does not answer then in fact the comment was valid----whether it was followed through on is a different matter.
Secondly we now have an entire Chinese military contingent in Iraq flying three attack drones that yes was a contract but at the same time accompanied by a Chinese intel unit for targeting purposes working inside a Russian operated command/panning center.
That is not chicken salad my friend--especially since it was the US that paid the price from 2003 to 2010.
Thirdly the reported Chinese armored SUVs have been spotted as reported by the so called illegitimate links you claim I post.
Lastly--the comment by the Russian General has also not been commented on by the Russian General Staff which should be seriously noted especially his comments against the Sunni Front States.
So actually two out three comments being correct is what percentage in the intel world--66% which is not bad for open source.
If you fully understand intelligence collection then you will not have any heartburn with the statement that 80% of all intelligence that is useable for analysis cones from "open source".
I will give you an excellent example--if there are two sides of an argument and one side is posting reports backed by videos which can be geo tagged and cross confirmed even if from "strange sources" do you believe them OR do you fully accept the statements by a leader of a so called super power that has a "proven track record of lying".
In the open source world you go with the statements/videos posted and yes even if they are from "strange sites".
Then you cross confirm or deny--right now in both the Ukraine and now Syria open source is faster and has a far better track record than anything coming out of "official DC" and the entire western MSM.
The group of open source commenters I track have since August 2014 have a very good track record of confirming and in the end have broken into the open info that was never reported on in MSM.
OR they have even corrected MSM.
I post and then let people makeup their own minds---that is democracy.
With over 270,000 views on the Ukrainian thread and over 30K on the Syrian thread- a triple increase in just two weeks-- someone is at least reading, thinking and maybe forming their own opinions.
That is all one really hopes for.
You are increasingly posting links from illegitimate news sources, and in fact are falling victim to the disinformation campaign you always warn about. This seems to have no more credibility than your claim that China's Navy was moving to the Med to help the Russians in Syria. It is time to slow down the constant thread of posts, many of which have little merit or basis in reality.
SO was Putin's move in to Syria really just all about oil and gas???????
Russian Gen.Maj. Vladimirov - chemical weapons will be deployed to stop refugees flow into Europe
http://portal-kultura.ru/articles/ar...vody-v-evropu/ …
Russia w/ help of SAR must take control of all gas pipelines in the Middle East, topple monarchs in Qatar, SaudiArabia "
Vladimirov says that FSA 50/50 supports Assad/Daesh
He also said that Russia is aimed at "rearranging the Middle East and thus, saving Europe"
THIS is a perfect example of the Russian "altered state of reality" that has it's finger on a nuclear trigger and will use it if necessary---this is not the old Soviet Union we are talking about..........at least they understood MAD--these guys do not.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...source=twitter
10.16.151:02 PM ET
Cuba Is Intervening in Syria to Help Russia. It’s Not the First Time Havana’s Assisted Moscow.
Reports that Cuban forces are now fighting in Syria follow a long history of the Castro brothers working closely with their patrons in Moscow.
Not for the first time Cuban forces are doing Russia’s dirty work, this time in Syria. On Wednesday it was reported that a U.S. official had confirmed to Fox News that Cuban paramilitary and Special Forces units were on the ground in Syria. Reportedly transported to the region in Russian planes, the Cubans are rumoured to be experts at operating Russian tanks.
For President Obama, who has staked his legacy on rapprochement with America’s adversaries, the entrance of Cuba into the bloody Syrian civil is one more embarrassment. Russia, Iran and Cuba—three regimes which Obama has sought to bring in from the cold—are now helping to prop up the regime of Bashar al-Assad, ruler of a fourth regime he also tried in vain to court early on in his presidency. Obama has been holding his hand out in a gesture of goodwill to America’s adversaries only for them to blow him a raspberry back in his face—while standing atop a pile of Syrian corpses.
Yet for seasoned Cuba-watchers the entrance of the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces into the Syrian civil war is a surprise but hardly a shock. A surprise because Cuba was forced two decades ago to curtail its military adventurism by a deteriorating economy (the Cuban military has been reduced by 80 per cent since 1991).
Largely thanks to the involvement of Cuban troops in the fight against Apartheid South African in Angola in the 70s and 80s (not to mention the more recent medical “missions” to disaster-stricken parts of the world) Cuba has gained something of a reputation for internationalism. At one point the Cuban presence in Angola reached 55,000 soldiers, inflicting a defeat on South African forces which helped precipitate the end of Apartheid. “The [Cuban army’s] decisive defeat of the aggressive apartheid forces [in Angola] destroyed the myth of the invincibility of the white oppressor,” Mandela told the Cuban leader on a visit to Havana in 1991.
In recent years Angola has lent the Castro regime a romantic penumbra which says that, for all its faults, the Cuban revolution is on balance progressive (watch the film Comandante by the ludicrous Oliver Stone to get a sense of what I mean).
Yet while everyone remembers Cuban heroics in Angola, few remembers Cuban terror in Ethiopia.
Those of us who are old enough probably recall the Live Aid concert organised by Bob Geldof in 1985, put on to raise money to help alleviate Ethiopia’s worst famine in a century. 400,000 people died in the famine of 1984/85, and while many people remember the gut-wrenching television images of fly-speckled children with pronounced rib cages and distended stomachs, few know that the tragedy was largely a consequence of the policies pursued by the Communist dictatorship that ruled Ethiopia at the time—a regime propped up by Cuba and the Soviet Union.
The Russians airlifted 17,000 Cuban troops to Ethiopia over the 14 years the Dergue—the dictatorship which ruled Ethiopia—were in power. During 1977-78 it is estimated that over 30,000 Ethiopians perished as a result of the Red Terror unleashed by the Communist government. During the terror, Sweden’s Save the Children Fund denounced the execution of 1,000 children—children whom the communist regime had preposterously labelled “liaison agents of the counter revolutionaries”.
As with Stalin’s war on the kulaks in the thirties, Ethiopia’s Marxist government embarked on its own utopian ventures in the countryside, forcing between 12 and 15 million Ethiopians into collectivized farms. According to Alexander De Waal, one of the foremost experts on the Horn of Africa, “more than half this mortality [400,000] can be attributed to human rights abuses that caused the famine to come earlier, strike harder, and extend further than would otherwise have been the case.” The Ethiopian army, reinforced by Cuban troops, prevented the distribution of food to areas of the country whose inhabitants were rumored to be sympathetic to opposition groups.
Following Russia’s lead, Cuba’s alliance with African nationalism extended to support for the bloody regimes of Nguema Macias in Equatorial Guinea and Idi Amin in Uganda. Cuba also gave political cover to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan—an odd position for a member of the non-aligned group of nations to take, until you consider that the Soviet Union might have limited the massive aid it sent to the island had Cuba stepped out of line.
A genuine affinity certainly exists between many of the world’s dictatorships based on a common hatred of the liberal democracies. Quickly sensing the way the wind was blowing in Tehran, the former Cuban President Fidel Castro was one of the first heads of state to recognize the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979, informing then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini (disingenuously for someone who had previously interned religious believers in labor camps) that there was “no contradiction between revolution and religion.” Similarly cordial relations have also long existed between Cuba and Syria, where Cuba has intervened militarily in the past. From 1973 to 1975 a Cuban tank brigade was stationed facing the Golan Heights after the Israeli victory in the Yom Kippur War. In 1985, then Syrian President Hafez al-Assad wrote to Fidel Castro honouring the friendship between both countries as beneficial “for the two peoples in their joint struggle against world imperialism and its allies..
Ultimately, though, Cuba’s reported entrance into the conflict in Syria should be seen as the island paying new dues to its benefactor in the Kremlin. While the Obama-Castro relationship has filled the headlines in recent months, the overtures the Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been making towards Cuba have gone largely unnoticed. Last year Putin wrote off a massive $32 billion of Cuba’s debts to Russia – a 90 per cent reduction in what was previously owed. Putin also pledged to assist oil exploration projects off Cuba’s northern coast and re-opened Russia’s Cold War spy base in Lourdes, south of Havana.
Putin is reportedly indignant at the U.S. for what the Russian President considers to be U.S. meddling in his country’s “backyard” in Ukraine. Putin’s generosity towards Cuba is thus an attempt to wrestle back the initiative by discomfiting the United States 90 miles off the coast of Florida. But Russia’s new-found enthusiasm for Cuba has another happy side effect: just like in old times a Russian leader can ask its Cuban padawan to get its hands dirty.
Dayuhan--you would be amazed how posting here hones one's mind for IT security troubleshooting and helps me run a 10 person business.
You would be surprised how commenting clears the mind when working long hours on a customer site awaiting analysis results (as I am now) that seems to always take large amounts of time.
Military has an old saying--"hurry up and wait"--well posting allows for that "wait" to be easier to take.
I chose when to walk away from the intel and military world after four wars in my lifetime and two UW wars scattered along the way--and it was the right decision--also learned that one never stops learning regardless what it is or where it occurs.
Old Chinese proverb--"when a man stops building his house he dies".
Besides I have a book coming out soon on ideas spun out of the commenting- non linear warfare and Iraq 2003 to 2007.
I have posted this on the Ukrainian military thread a number of times --in order to understand Putin read Orwell's 1984.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinio...ed/538675.html
War Is Peace: Russia's Orwellian Propaganda (Op-Ed)
By Alexander Golts
Oct. 12 2015 20:06
The Russian authorities have achieved remarkable success in the Syrian war. According to a poll by state-run VTsIOM, 66 percent of citizens approve of sending Russian combat aircraft to Syria, even though more than half have no idea what Moscow is fighting for there.
Think about it: The majority of Russians approve of the war without even taking the trouble to understand its purpose. It's just that the average citizen gets a big kick out of watching television footage of Russian planes locking in and destroying their targets exactly as if it were a video game. The armchair audience likes watching the General Staff issue its daily report listing the number of terrorist command and control centers destroyed and the ever-increasing number of terrorists killed.
It seems as if the producers at state-controlled television channels are using George Orwell's "1984" as a handbook. The modern-day Orwellian war of Oceania against Eurasia — aka Russia versus fascist Ukraine — is already over and forgotten, and now Moscow has launched a new battle between Oceania and what Orwell called Eastasia.
And yet, the Defense Ministry does not even try to give a semblance of plausibility to its communiques of military triumph. After all, what type of aerial reconnaissance could confirm that Russian aircraft have destroyed a factory producing belts for suicide bombers? Do those belts explode differently than other munitions, or can Russian drone aircraft peer into windows and straight through brick and concrete walls?
The fact that Russians gave such enthusiastic support to the annexation of Crimea and Moscow's "secret war" in Ukraine revealed their deep inferiority complex over the collapse of the Soviet Union. The seizure of Crimea and the hybrid war in Donbass served as potent psychotropic drugs that allowed Russians to finally feel like citizens of a great empire — and therefore happy. However, like any powerful drug, it proved addictive. A new dose was needed. And one appeared, in the form of a safe little war in Syria that carried no risk for Russia.
That drug works on Russia's ordinary citizens and military chiefs alike. To help celebrate President Vladimir Putin's recent birthday, they launched 20 of Russia's most advanced Caliber cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea fleet to hit terrorist targets in Syria. Military observers were simply overcome with joy. For the first time in its military history, Russia used long-range cruise missiles to hit targets 1,500 kilometers away. That was a convincing demonstration of "the long arm of Moscow" and its long-awaited ability to "project force" abroad.
Of course, those same analysts who are simply bubbling over with happiness begin to stammer and mumble when trying to explain why those missile attacks were necessary in the first place.
It was clear why the United States used cruise missiles in its operations in Yugoslavia and Iraq — namely, to employ its full military might to send the enemy into confusion, destroy its reserves, interrupt communications and diminish its will to resist.
Russia's air operations are a bit different. In a campaign that is far from intense, the air squadron stationed in Syria carries out extremely limited strikes against targets that are most likely selected by the Syrian army. There are no targets in Syria that Russian aircraft cannot reach, and so there was no need to use cruise missiles against them.
The show that Russia has staged in Syria is essentially a historical reenactment of U.S. operations in Iraq. I can imagine how humiliated and envious Putin must have felt 12 years ago as those damned Yankees sent volley after volley of cruise missiles to destroy pinpoint targets thousands of kilometers away. Now Putin has shown that not only can Russia play that game, too, but under his visionary command, can perhaps outperform the Yankees.
Putin was not the only one to indulge his militaristic fantasies. Retired admiral and Duma Defense Committee head Vladimir Komoyedov argued that there was simply no stopping those "Komsomol volunteers" in their desire to ensure the happiness of the Syrian people. He implied that Moscow should create brigades, or perhaps even a battalion of volunteer Russian forces, and that fighters languishing in the Donbass for lack of a war could immediately relocate to Syria.
He even suggested that those intrepid Russian volunteers, so eager to bring happiness to their downtrodden Syrian brethren, could earn paychecks far surpassing standard military salaries. What Komoyedov forgot to mention is that "volunteers who fight for money" are actually called mercenaries.
Many years ago, after the tragedy in Vietnam, the U.S. developed the so-called "Powell Doctrine" that spells out criteria for the use of military force abroad. According to that doctrine, U.S. leaders can resort to military force only when, among other things, they have a clear and attainable military objective. However, Russia's war in Syria is primarily a propaganda stunt and lacks an end goal that could be achieved by military means.
What's more, it is fraught with the risk of entanglement. If the current air operations do not secure victory for the forces of Syrian President Bashar Assad and his Iranian colleagues, Russia's military chiefs might risk launching ground operations. In fact, such plans were already developed as part of the large-scale Center 2015 military maneuvers. First, an airborne regiment flies in and prepares a base for the main forces. They are followed by a division of troops, and then the general army.
True, it is not clear how Moscow plans to deploy infantry to Syria, but in the end, it can commandeer civilian aircraft. It was a stroke of luck in this regard that private Russian air carrier Transaero went bankrupt recently, allowing state-controlled Aeroflot airlines to buy a 75 percent stake in the company.
Russia's military brass continues to insist that it has no plans for ground operations in Syria. However, for some reason the Defense Ministry hurriedly pushed through amendments to the law on the punishment for evasion of reservist training …
This is exactly just how bad western and especially MSM is informed about the ground reality in Syria.
BTW the NYTs has absolutely no reporters in Syria and or contributing from the front lines and are dependent on social media reporting.
FSA commanders receiving TOWs "cannot operate without the consent of the larger and stronger Nusra Front."
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/world/middleeast/syria-russia-airstri… …
IMHO this is a blatant attempt to argue against the sending or more TOWS--ie the not so subtle threat--"hey the bad guys" are going to get their hands on the TOWs.
Whoever wrote the article is fully falsely informed and or he intends to badly disinfo the general public.
In the history of the TOWs going into Syria--only a max of exactly TWO (missiles not the launchers themselves) have fallen into the hands of JN--and those were in an info war video depicting the brave JN has them--THEY were never fired nor has JN even released a battle video of their usage.
In my previous comment posting provided by excellent on the ground input--JN is absolutely nowhere to be seen in the fighting zone SO EXACTLY how are they to influence FSA's TOW decisions??????
SO just where is JN in this list compiled last night from the field reporting out of the front lines--you will notice that JN attempted to coattail the units fighting on the front lines so they could get some "honor of the battle" but were not allowed to the forward lines:
Ahrar ash-Sham (arrived in Kfar Naboudah this evening)
- 101 Division (FSyA; it's 5th Battalion arrived today)
- 111 Division (FSyA, underway to combat zone)
- Furqa al-Wusta (FSyA, underway to combat zone)
- Liwa Fursan al-Haqq (FSyA; was there, now reinforced)
- Suqour al-Ghab (FSyA; was there, now reinforced)
- Tajamu al-Aazza (FSyA, was there, now reinforced)
- Salvation Front of Victorious Army (IF)
- Sham Front (IF).
The JAN tried to send some gang to Kfar Naboudah (possibly Jund al-Aqsa), but these clashed with Ahrar's guards at a check-point north of the place, and were forced to go away.
- Central Division FSyA is in the rear, trying to reorganize after recent losses. No news on the 60 Division FSyA (seems this was largely destroyed in Sukayk).
I have seen an increasing number of info war articles either pro Putin, anti Ukraine and in this case "AGAINST the TOW" cropping up more and more in the US MSM.
The core question is--who is misleading and attempting to control the public opinion in the US?? THAT is a very valid question.
I know the answer but do Americans themselves even see it?
As you can see the FSA is just hanging on after a week of solid Russian bombings and cluster munition strikes but still fighting.
But here is the key difference they are fighting---look at the Iraqi's and the Shia militias there--they are not moving without having 30K in place, F16s, heavy artillery and Apaches---the Syrians---have what the TOW and yet they are defeating the Russian/IRGC/Hezbollah army in front of them.
Notice the difference--it is all in the "will to fight"--so if they can continue this "will to fight" why should they not be able to form a government of their choice??
They have earned that right--just let them regardless of how it looks to the US--by fighting for it--they have earned the right to form whatever they choose.
Following insurgent units are either in position in Kfar Zita area, or have deployed reinforcements there today:
- Ahrar ash-Sham (arrived in Kfar Naboudah this evening)
- 101 Division (FSyA; it's 5th Battalion arrived today)
- 111 Division (FSyA, underway to combat zone)
- Furqa al-Wusta (FSyA, underway to combat zone)
- Liwa Fursan al-Haqq (FSyA; was there, now reinforced)
- Suqour al-Ghab (FSyA; was there, now reinforced)
- Tajamu al-Aazza (FSyA, was there, now reinforced)
- Salvation Front of Victorious Army (IF)
- Sham Front (IF).
The JAN tried to send some gang to Kfar Naboudah (possibly Jund al-Aqsa), but these clashed with Ahrar's guards at a check-point north of the place, and were forced to go away.
- Central Division FSyA is in the rear, trying to reorganize after recent losses. No news on the 60 Division FSyA (seems this was largely destroyed in Sukayk).
Outlaw:
Given that, of a Syrian population of about 23 million, only 100,000 are fighting for freedom,
Does this exceptionally small number of committed freedom fighters suggest that:
a. Even if these 100,000 should somehow defeat Assad,
b. Then they would find it exceptional hard, if not impossible, to (a) hold Syria together and/or to (b) hold it against all comers?
Captain Mustafa, the military spokesman of the FSA’s Tajamul Ala’Azza says to Russians "You don’t know what you’ve got yourself into"
New "Syrian Democratic Forces” formed consisting of YPG, YPJ (women's division) Free Syrian Army brigades, Assyrian units.
=30k fighters
Newsflash Assad Col Abbas Fawaz in charge of overseeing offensive in KAFR NOUDAH was KILLED...
Syria After 1 week of Regime assault backed by Russia'n airstrikes & new weapons no significant progress at northern Hama frontlines
Opposition still manages to hit &destroy SAA tanks with TOWs. "We hit 2 tanks but then 10 new ones appear in front of us," says witness.
"Not since the end of the Cold War a quarter-century ago has Russia been as assertive or Washington as acquiescent"
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/13/opinion/obamas-doctrine-of-restraint… …
Bill C--really watch this smart phone video--this was the Russian air strikes being conducted on the FSA today prior to a major ground attack.
This is what the rag tag 100K are enduring now under Russian attacks and yet they still are fighting and pushing back the Russian led offensive----
Really captured the depth of the Russian airstrikes today---
The size of regime/Russian attack on Kafranbouda before the ground attack today.
When I talk about the "will to fight"---they fought back after this bombing series and held the town and took several other ones that had been under Assad control.
In order to fully understand just how the "will to fight" has carried the anti Assad forces of all colors---
Between5 october 2015 and 11 october 2015, according to different videos and photos, Assad lost:
- 3 BMP destroyed and 0 captured by rebels =3 BMP lost
- 13 tank destroyed and 1 captured by rebels= 14 tank lost
- 1 ZSU-23-4 destroyed and 0 captured by rebels= 1 ZSU-23-4 lost
= 18 AFV lost
Between 24 May 2012 and 11 october 2015, according to different videos and photos, Assad lost:
- 368 BMP destroyed and 166 captured by rebels = 534 BMP lost
- 712 tanks destroyed and 338 captured by rebels= 1050 tanks lost
- 41 ZSU-23-4 destroyed and 35 captured by rebels=76 ZSU-23-4 lost
- 24 2S1 and 2S3 destroyed and 19 captured by rebels= 43 2S1 and 2S3 lost
= 1703 AFV lost
Not bad for a rag tag group of 100K fighters praying to Allah and fighting for Syria----
If I was a dictator I would love it if all Americans had your view point. They would confuse my displeasure with America as being representative of my people's view. My people of course generally say what I want them to say, because my secret police are very effective at terrorizing those who don't toe the line. Furthermore, I control the state narrative, it certainly isn't as robust as diverse as the American national narrative where many compete for top billing. I have top billing, those who disagree openly with me simply disappear. Fortunately, I have friends like you who confuse the lack of open dissent against me as disagreement with America's push for self-determination. Thank you!
I also love how you twisted the stats in your argument to support my argument that America is evil and is attempting to push itself upon other countries and poor dictators like myself. But wink-wink, we're not stupid and we both realize your reference to the South during the Civil War was pure propaganda. Brilliant propaganda for those who are looking for anything to prove that America is wrong. And you sir provide plenty of weak arguments for them to latch on to. Again thank you.
The Confederate states weren't warring with each other, they were warring with the northern states. If Turkey invaded Syria before their Civil War started, then you could compare demographics on what percentage of the population fought for Syria. Though to make it honest, and I know we're not interested in doing that, we would have narrow it to males of fighting age as a percentage of the population relative to the rest of the population to make an accurate comparison.
In Syria, tens of thousands of people are fighting the Assad regime, without external support from Russia and Iran it would have collapsed already. Thank goodness the kind and freedom fighting Iranian and Russian governments are providing support to the Assad government so he can continue to gas and drop barrel bombs on his civilians. All in the name of protecting them from American expansionism. That will certainly get them back in line, and prove that America's values of self-determination are not universal. Of course this is all propaganda that we promote with your persistent help. We also have some facts, because propaganda without some facts is generally worthless. The fact is Assad has protected the minority Syrian Christians and Alawites from the Sunni sword. This is great, because it throws the U.S. human rights argument back into the U.S.'s face. We simply paint the opposition as all being crazy Sunni extremists in ISIL, and the U.S. is faced with decision paralysis. Again from all the dictators around the world we thank you Bill C. for your continuous support.
Bill C--do not forget the 250K plus who have been killed inside the country.
Bill--do some research and find out exactly who many have been tortured and then killed that do not fall into the above 250K to include thousands of children who were tortured and then "disappeared".
In some aspect the Sunni population has been largely traumatized to the point of just wanting to survive and then on top of all of this the chemical gas attacks and the barrel bombs.
IMHO I am surprised there are 100K willing to fight after the above.
NOW if we see the South in the way you write here--what broke the back of the "will to fight" of the South late in the war---Sheridan "March to the Sea" and the "scorched earth" policy followed by Grant.
With the destruction of the Southern remaining industrial base and agricultural base the South caved regardless of how many fighters they fielded.
NOW if we take the Assad "scorched earth" policy against the Sunni population they are still fighting 4.5 years later and with the TOW have beaten back a Russian/IRGC/Hezbollah major offensive while even taking on IS at the same time.
So with far fewer fighters the anti Assad forces are holding their own even in the face of a Russian/Assad/Iranian "scorched earth" war.
WHAT you are actually missing is the "will to fight" either for a flag and or a nation or both.
Look at the sheer numbers of Iraqi Security Forces we trained--in excess of 350K total and for AFG about the same number.
SO when a 5K man Islamic State force broke across the border and faced an ISF of 21K what was the outcome.
We trained military personnel BUT one cannot train the "will to fight". Iraqi's today fight for a job and money but never for the country of "Iraq".
Hate to say it but the 100K rag tag groups in Syria have if you remember started 4.5 years ago with old AK47s and stolen RPGs and have transformed themselves into a modern fighting force using TOWs in ways the US Army has never seen.
They may pray to Allah but they fight for Syria.
So supply them, assist when they need assistance for the civilians and children, give advice when one can but otherwise stand back and let them fight so in the end they will know it was their achievement not that of the US.
Outlaw:
Consider the following difference/disparity:
The National Park Service suggests that, in America's Civil War, the American South -- in its bid for freedom -- and with a white Southern population of approximately 6 million, put approximately 1 million fighters in the field against the American North.
http://www.nps.gov/civilwar/facts.htm
In stark contrast, the BBC suggests (much as you do below) that the "freedom-seeking" population of Syrian today has only been able to place approximately 100,000 persons in the field against Assad.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24403003
Obvious question: Does the above information, re: the Syria Civil War, suggest that:
a. The freedom-seeking population of Syria is so exceptionally small/tiny (numbering only in the thousands?) that it can only field 100,000 combatants? Or does the above information suggest, instead, that
b. While the freedom-seeking population of Syria is indeed large (numbering in the millions?), the number of freedom-seekers actually willing to fight is exceeding small/tiny?
(Note: Syrian population, I believe, is approximately 23 million.)
What am I missing here?
Outlaw: From the perspective and numbers offered above, might many/most American's today come to one of the two conclusions suggested below, to wit:
a. That there are simply too few "freedom-seeking" people in Syria today? Or
b. That there are simply too few "freedom-seeking" people -- in Syria today -- who are willing to fight?
<i>BREAKING: a new coalition has been formed in northern Syria called the 'Syrian Democratic Forces'</i>
To the skeptic that sounds like an overt pitch for American aid.
<i>Syria: creation of #SDF can also be seen as a clear message of #US to #Russia that it will not let Syria fall back into the hands of #Assad</i>
You do realize, I assume, that SWJ is not Twitter and hashtags don't connect to anything? So why use them?
BREAKING: a new coalition has been formed in northern Syria called the 'Syrian Democratic Forces'
The Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF) includes the #YPG, Burkan al-Furat #FSA forces, the #MFS and al-Sanadid[/B]
Syria: creation of #SDF can also be seen as a clear message of #US to #Russia that it will not let Syria fall back into the hands of #Assad
The #SDF has approximately 30.000 fighters and includes arabs, kurds and Christians. A new force for democracy, against #Assad & #IS
But this is more important--this system is strictly US only and was designed for SOF--so whose is now exactly inside Syria???
Unverified Syria imagery suggests Switchblade loitering munition US only known user
http://www.avinc.com/downloads/Switchblade_Datasheet_032712.pdf … pic.twitter.com/zsr9VSobZi
Drone downed by SAA over Izraa Daraa countryside
Has anyone actually seen Chinese ships moving? There are people in my part of the world who follow Chinese naval deployments quite closely, and there's been no word of movements. Hard to keep that sort of thing a secret.
It is of course possible that the Chinese might use Syria as a proving ground to try to test some of their equipment and give some of their pilots and crews something resembling combat experience... but is there any real evidence to suggest their actual or impending presence?
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/100915-774990-china-joining-ru…
China Joining Russia In Syria Brings Risks Of World War
10/09/2015 06:51 PM ET
American Decline: Chinese forces head to Syria to join with Russia in filling Obama's power vacuum and purportedly fight the Islamic State. A false move involving NATO member Turkey could mean world war.
Russian and Chinese military sources now confirm that Chinese warships are en route to the Middle East to get in on some of the action of humiliating the U.S.
In just a week and a half, Moscow has upended the dynamics of power in the Mideast by taking on the role that President Obama relinquished: acting like a superpower in a regional conflict that has implications extending far beyond the region.
Russian ruler Vladimir Putin launched airstrikes against rebels opposing the terrorist Assad regime in Syria, first with a modest force to gauge the U.S. response and perhaps pull out if threatened. Seeing no threat, Putin has been intensifying Russian operations, even sending in Spetsnaz special forces troops.
China's entry means two major powers are stepping in to do what the U.S. was unwilling to do against IS.
It's a lesson in how fast the tables can turn when America displays weakness — losing wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and proving to be ineffective against IS despite fighting it for a year and three months now.
Our commander-in-chief even admits that he has no strategy against the monstrous caliphate that his very own policies of weakness brought into being.
What is apparently happening now was inconceivable before Obama sent America spiraling into decline: our two Cold War adversaries uniting militarily in an effort that will ultimately give them dominance, at our expense, in the most strategically important part of the world, the oil-rich and politically fragile Middle East.
You can't carry out your objectives there over the course of years with the most advanced military in the world? Fine. Watch us do it, Moscow and Beijing are telling us with their actions. And in months, or perhaps only weeks.
How the next president will dig us out of this hole is hard to fathom. A new post-Cold War Brezhnev Doctrine could come into effect, in which Moscow and Beijing warn that they will not let the U.S. reassert its influence in countries they've "liberated" in the Mideast.
If that turns out to be the case, America will be risking war with both Russia and China if it even tries to return to its pre-Obama influence in the region.
Moreover, with Russia already more than once "accidentally" violating the airspace of Turkey, a NATO member in spite of its current anti-U.S. government, the dangers — Moscow and Beijing engaging in incursions or other provocative actions on the Syria-Turkish border — are clear.
All NATO nations are obligated by treaty to defend against an attack on any individual NATO nation. If Russia and China see what they can get away with, they could expose NATO as impotent.
Or, worse, they could trigger World War III.
Neither Obama nor the many millions who voted for him twice ever thought his policies of weakness could make things this bad.
Putin states this today--seems he and Obama have the same political advisors?
Actually whether Putin wants to be belPutin: Russia does not want to get involved in inter-religious war in Syria.ieve it or not--he has placed Russia in the middle of the Sunni Shia global fight and he is being perceived to be actively supporting the Shia/Iran.
QUOTE:
"Putin: Russia does not want to get involved in inter-religious war in Syria".
Let's see exactly how the fight against IS is going in Syria.
1. Russians declared they had invaded Syria to attack IS--BUT somewhere along the road from Moscow to Damascus they forgot to attack IS
2. The US is not bombing IS because they are basically afraid to be in the same airspace as Russian fighter bombers
3. That leaves just the Syrians to handle IS---so much for that global war on terror both the US and Russia claim to be doing.
BUT the Syrians are getting bombed by the Russians WHO are supporting the IS--who would have figured that??
FSA's Suqour al-Jabal brigade are also fighting ISIS at Harbal in northern Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/at5-fjdubeU
FSA Suqour al-Jabal brigade fighting ISIS during the night at Tal Qarah, Aleppo. #Syria
http://youtu.be/87yICdoxlw4
Meanwhile as the 16th Division fought the regime in Khalidiyeh, Suqour al-Jabal tried to hold ISIS back. #Aleppo
http://youtu.be/6Ye-y1c6XM8
WHY because the Obama administration tried to forget Syria and quietly just pulled out leaving a massive vacuum to be filled by anyone.