Obama Versus Putin: The Making of Another Great Power Proxy War in the Quicksand of Syria
Ehsan M. Ahrari
The United States has announced that its Special Forces will participate in ground operations in Syria against ISIS. That announcement contradicts President Barack Obama’s previous assurances that there would be no American forces participating in ground operations. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter went beyond the aforementioned statement by noting that such Special Forces operations would increase in the future. Is President Obama breaking his frequently iterated promise of no troops on the ground, or is it just a crucial tactical adjustment? Has he quietly reached a moment of desperation whereby he sees his promise of “no boots on the ground” has been overcome by events (OBEs); or has he decided to outdo Russian President Vladimir Putin in his own determination to take drastic action to save the regime of Bashar al-Assad? At this point, Obama’s decision appears to include factors mentioned in both questions. Putin, for his part, seems to have forgotten that military involvement in a Muslim country may turn out to be too costly for Russia. He seems to have forgotten the lessons of the Afghan war of the 1980s.
Things are not going well for the United States in Syria. Despite its heavy reliance on air power (as an alternative to committing ground troops) to degrade and then eradicate ISIS, the latter has yet to lose its effectiveness. The United States decided to rely on recruiting, training, and equipping the so-called moderate Islamists to fight ISIS. It originally allocated $580 million to train and equip those individuals. But the chief restriction imposed on those recruits was that they would only engage in fighting ISIS and not the Assad regime.
To Washington’s dismay, much of the US-supplied equipment and vehicles quickly fell into the hands of Al-Nusra (an al-Qaeda affiliate). The next twist in the policy, according to the Wall Street Journal, was, instead of training the moderate rebels, it was also to equip them. The “equip” part of the program was to be “dramatically reduced to providing weapons to some 5,000 friendly moderate Syrian rebels to carry on the fight against both ISIS and presumably, against the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.” Senator John McCain was spot-on when he observed that the Obama administration’s insistence that rebels fight only against ISIS was a “fundamental flaw.”
The greatest American hesitation has been about providing heavy equipment to the anti-ISIS forces. Sadly, from Washington’s perspective, the pro-American Syrian insurgents have not impressed the American advisors with their fighting capabilities. In addition, their loyalty to the American objectives of ridding the country of ISIS first conflicted with the Syrian insurgents’ own intense desire to defeat pro-regime forces first.
The US-Turkish alliance also suffers from intricate problems of its own. Turkey remains focused on ousting Assad first, but it also remains acutely worried about enabling the Kurdish forces to emerge as an effective fighting force. Ankara has also remained vexed about the possibilities that the territories liberated by the Kurdish forces are likely to become an integral part of Kurdistan, which is the dream of Kurds of all political stripes. Thus, “Turkey appears to be actively working at direct odds with U.S. anti-ISIS strategy, having attacked Kurdish groups in Syria—the same groups that the United States recently armed and counts among its ‘capable partners’….”
The United States, on the contrary, has a high degree of trust in the commitment of the Kurdish forces to fight, degrade, and destroy ISIS. However, it has to be careful about not antagonizing the government of President Recep Erdogan. Thus, while the Kurds are fighting ISIS, they are also frequently targeted by the Turkish Air Force. That is also one more reason why the United States is careful about not increasing the fighting capabilities of the Kurdish forces by supplying them with heavy equipment. There is a great possibility that those arms might also be used against the Turkish forces.
America’s other problem is that no Arab country is ready or willing to commit its ground troops to the Syrian theater of operations. As much as everyone claims to despise ISIS and its ghastly tactics, no Arab regime is willing to commit ground forces and then becoming a powerful target of ISIS global propaganda that it is killing Sunni Muslims.
Russia has studied the modalities of America’s involvement in Iraq and Syria within a Machiavellian framework. If the United States were to be effective in defeating or at least substantially weakening ISIS forces in either of those countries, Russia would have stayed out of the fray. However, President Obama’s overly cautious approach—indeed, his sustained refusal to commit ground troops to Syria or Iraq—has provided Russia with a superb window of opportunity. Putin fired his opening salvo on behalf of Bashara Assad in September 2013, when the latter violated Obama’s declared “red line” by using chemical weapons. As the United States was poised to take limited military action against the Assad regime as punishment, Putin came up with the suggestion that Assad transfer the ownership of his chemical weapons stock to an outside body. The United States readily accepted that palpably sensible proposition. However, the Russian President had an ambitious agenda up his sleeve. He operates as a believer of that old adage: Nature abhors a vacuum (Horror vacui).
Undoubtedly, Russia has been looking for a long-term, if not a permanent, presence in the Middle East, since its ouster from Egypt by President Anwar Sadat in 1972. It has a naval base in Syria, but the potential ouster of Assad from power would have permanently closed that facility. As an integral aspect of his profound desire to reestablish Russia as one of the great powers to have a major say in the future power plays in the Middle East, Putin needed an even a larger Russian presence. He has already made significant overtures by reaching out to the Egyptian dictator, General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, in the form of arms sales, and promises of further boosting that aspect of Russo-Egyptian ties in the future. Russia has been well on its way to filling that vacuum.
Putin asserted Russia’s influence in Syria with a bang. He sent bombers to Syria ostensibly for bombing ISIS; however, in reality, he started targeting the US-backed Syrian insurgents, who were already facing an uphill battle because of America’s legalistic requirement of vetting them first, training them, and only then supplying them with light weapons. On the contrary, Putin instantly went after the US-backed insurgents for the explicit purpose of weakening or even eradicating them. That was the most assured way of saving the Assad regime, according to his calculations. Bombing ISIS was only his secondary objective, especially considering the fact that the Iranian Quds forces and Hezbollah were already carrying the heavy baggage of fighting ISIS.
Putin plan seems to be working for him, at least for now. Russia has emerged as a major player. He has already entered into negotiations with the United States, Iran, and Saudi Arabia over the future of Syria. The Saudis themselves have approached Moscow to inquire about the modalities of the post-Assad era, a topic that is most irrelevant to Putin as long as Russia and Iran have an upper-hand in the Syrian theater of operations. More to the point, Putin has managed to elevate his country as a coequal of the United States, as the American and Russia military officials have started regularly coordinating their air attack plans to eliminate any potential for a mishap.
The Obama administration has maintained that it has no intention of deploying ground troops in Syria. Thus, the decision to insert a small number of US Special Forces is merely a tactical adjustment. As President Obama is becoming increasingly focused on his legacy of not becoming a party to another war in Syria, Putin seems to have calculated that the path to Russia’s advantage leads through the battlefields of Syria, especially while Moscow’s ally, Iran, is bearing the major brunt of the ground fight and the resultant losses in its war against ISIS.
The Syrian conflict has all the markings of transforming itself into another proxy war between two major powers a la the Afghanistan war of the 1980s. One feature of that war materialized when Putin decided to plunge his country into the Syrian quagmire. The ghosts of the Afghan war are awakening in the battlefields of Syria, when one considers the fact that heavy weapons are once again emerging as the game changer of winning that conflict. While reports surged that the Russian bombing decimated the heavy weapons used by ISIS fighters, there was also a report that the United States and Saudi Arabia were supplying heavy weapons to pro-US forces. In the meantime, 55 Saudi Wahhabi clerics have declared a Jihad against the Russian forces. As consummate practitioners of Machiavellian power game, one can be rest assured that Putin’s advisors are busy calculating the long-term implications of their boss’ decision to plunge them into the quicksand of Syria.
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I realize that thae Saudis are bitterly frustrated at America's failure to do their bidding. I still don't think that the US has any reason to be a lap dof, or an attack dog, for the Saudis.
The US has never had a realistic opportunity to rein in the Syria events: that is fantasy of the highest order. It has had several "opportunities" to jump deeper into the Syrian quicksand, which it has - wisely, IMO - resisted. The US will never "reign" in Syria, and shouldn't try.
Keeping the US out of a full commitment to a war that the US has no business committing to is a strategy, and it requires leadership. You may not like that strategy - not that you've anything better to offer - but that doesn't make it any less of a strategy.
AND he definitely has no strategy for eastern Ukraine which he has not said a single word about in over three months......
Head of Rus Parliament Naryshkin: #Kyiv can bet on any new confrontation in the #Donbass
pic.twitter.com/3X6eUML4OK
http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/7-decem...n-kyiv-can-bet …
MFA Russia ✔ @mfa_russia
Envoy Alexander Grushko: #NATO expansion is blatantly ideological and has nothing to do with security
http://sptnkne.ws/andU
BUT the Russian invasions of eastern Ukraine and Syria do have everything to do with Russian security??? Another great Russian altered state of reality statement by their FM...
What you define as a strategy of avoiding commitment is actually nothing more or less than a lack of strategic foresight and a total lack of leadership.
It is a mess which you seem to be able to not understand for exactly those two reasons--by my count Obama has had three perfect chances to reign in the Syrian events and to establish an overarching concept that the regional players could use BUT he because he has basically retrenched in the entire ME the regional players have absolutely no idea where he is going.
If you had read my posting on the KSA critique of the Obama ME FP you can taste the frustration on their part.
So I guess retrenchment and doing nothing is a great recipe for a foreign policy and in the mean time genocide continues now under the rain of Russian bombs, cluster munitions and WP and we claim to be the "leaders of the free world".
Come on Dayuhan since when has US leadership been equated with genocide...?? Was not in my lifetime that is until the current Obama foreign policy or lack thereof.
Remember this is the same President we are talking about right...that declared a year ago in the press conference he had no strategy on the IS and now in a major presentation has apparently one that no one had known about. AND he claims it has been working---maybe he needs to ask the Syrians fighting daily against IS if his plan is working??
This is the same President...right??
The whole point of the Straits Treaty is that the straits are Turkish waters and under the exclusive control of Turkey. Of course it's up to Turkey to define what the response to the incident will be and to request assistance from NATO if they see fit. No reason at all for the US or NATO to comment.
Syria is not a mess because the US lacks a strategy, Syria is a mess because that's what it is. It would be no less a mess if the US were committed to a particular outcome. The current strategy of avoiding commitment and keeping involvement to the lowest possible level has a lot to recommend it, given the lack of clear interests, viable partners, and realistically achievable end state goals.
Still no US or NATO comments on this blatant Russian violation of the Straits treaty....seems they want Turkey alone to handle it....same exact attitude by the US and the UK to the major violation of the Budapest Memorandum.....and yet we wonder why Obama has a mess in Syria----since he has not a single strategy for anything he is always in a "mess" somewhere....
Notice that even Reuters does not mention that in the 1936 treaty "if Turkey evens feels the slightest threat" they can shutdown the Straits.......
That is the not so subtle threat mentioned by the Turks in the PR by Reuters..
Turkey angered by rocket-brandishing on Russian naval ship passing Istanbul
Reuters
20 hours ago
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey accused Russia of a "provocation" on Sunday after a serviceman on the deck of a Russian naval ship allegedly held a rocket launcher on his shoulder while the vessel passed through Istanbul.
Relations have deteriorated sharply since Turkey last week became the first NATO member in more than half a century to down a Russian plane, which it said had violated its airspace while flying sorties over Syria. The pilot was killed.
The NTV news channel broadcast photographs that it said showed a serviceman brandishing a rocket launcher on the deck of the landing ship Caesar Kunikov as it passed on Saturday through the Bosphorus Strait, which bisects the city of Istanbul. It said the ship was believed to be en route to Syria.
"For a Russian soldier to display a rocket launcher or something similar while passing on a Russian warship is a provocation," Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters, according to the Hurriyet news site. "If we perceive a threatening situation, we will give the necessary response."
The Bosphorus offers the only passage to the world's oceans for the Russian Black Sea fleet. A World War One-era treaty obliges Turkey to allow all ships to pass during peacetime.
Turkey had considered Russia a strategic partner as its main energy supplier, despite deep differences over Syria. But since Turkey shot the plane down, Moscow has introduced economic sanctions including a ban on Turkish foods and other products worth as much as $1 billion.NTV said three NATO frigates with Canadian, Spanish and Portuguese flags had been moored in Istanbul as the Caesar Kunikov passed through.
TurkishFM summoned RFambassador due to violation of Montreux Convention(status of Bosphorus)
http://flashcrimea.com/news/turciya-...tatuse-bosfora …
pic.twitter.com/tW6Oc6hFhL
BTW social media carried this for two straight days last week and until now first time reporting by Reuters and that was about it for MSM......
Possible indications of this type of FSB activities have been floating around social media for the last six months.....nothing from MSM---will be interesting to see if this makes the MSM....
Ex-FSB officer to TSN.Tyzhden: Russia involved in London, Paris attacks, ISIS
http://www.unian.info/politics/1204376-ex-fsb-officer-in-tsntyzhden-rus… …
ONLY after social media has been complaining about their lack of actions especially towards Russian info warriors...........for only two years now and I have repeatedly said this is the true battlespace against IS......
Social media companies step up battle against militant propaganda
http://reut.rs/1NELPWm
One of the major reasons for the Obama mess in Syria is his simple ignoring of the problem starting in 2011 and his refusal after even stating his red line from actually carrying out that threat.
From the moment in 2011 until 2015 the gradual but steady radicalization of the groups fighting Assad have largely been due to the total failure of the West to undertake any actions in reigning in the Assad barrel bombs, the indiscriminate bombing of civilians and the use if chemical weapons NOW cluster munitions and WP on civilian targets and points of critical infrastructure which support civilians.
If you every wondered how Russian-targeted "ISIS oil refineries" look before the strikes...
via @IHHen
pic.twitter.com/zn2JwAUyjM
Heroes of war @SyriaCivilDef saving lives also 2day,this time in Zamalka
#Russia killed 10 ppl,dozens wounded
pic.twitter.com/OUJgxBSdl0
AEJ خليل ้้้้้็็็็ @AEJKhalil
You will never know the pain, until you pass through the same..
This is #Syria. Thanks for watching.
This last posting gives a pretty good assessment of what Syrians think of Western actions up to now.....
Since Russia is now killing civilians, bombing churches, schools, granaries, food production and water facilities with cluster munitions and even WP--NOTICE not a single comment by any western MSM and or western leader----why is that??
Perfect example of the failure of Western MSM to cover anything these days...covered extensively by social media but not a single comment by MSM and it was a major Russian provocation.....
Hurriyet Daily News @HDNER
Turkish FM slams #Russia’s missile ‘provocation’ in Bosphorus http://bit.ly/1OHprB7
Tends to in fact show NATO led by the US is focusing more in reigning in Turkey than paying attention to violations of the 1936 treaty JUST as the US and UK ignored the major violation of the Budapest Memorandum.
Instead of supporting Obama seems determined to limit a regional power player WHEN in theory his own FP is suppose to be built on regional players if I read his statements correctly.
WHAT happens when history tries to teach international relations a lesson but not heard.........
Prophetic... (Russia may attack Ukraine if it gives up its nuclear weapons - Article "Foreign Affairs" 1.6.1993).
So 20 or so years later we have the "reality"....AND the WAR is back on yesterday in eastern Ukraine.
IS Putin trying to prove to the US he can fight a two front war which the current US Army is incapable of conducting.
There is a "moderate" Free Syrian Army fighting against Assad, Russia AND Islamic State ......WHY is it not being mentioned in the US MSM
Main factions involved in the recent Rebel territory gains against #ISIS | #Syria.
http://goo.gl/dF4W8j
Map: Military Situation in North #Aleppo (showing gains of each side) | #Syria | Dec 6.
HD: http://goo.gl/dF4W8j
Grand Mufti of Saudi: Turkey is Islamic world first & key defense line to be supported & defended.
Do not underestimate this message from Saudi Grand Mufti re Turkey. It is preceding extremely huge & important turn--- over events in Syria
We are now seeing the full structuring of the Sunni Front States as a regional power bloc due to the totally failing and or better--absolutely no US foreign policy for the ME.
This will never happen as the anti Assad forces want Assad out not in .....
France says Assad could stay in power for transitional period in united #Syria that fights ISIS.
https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/673109675290845184 …
Hollande now accepts Putin's foreign policy.....for Syria.
SO when will Obama follow suit??
Putin sent a Russian military LST yesterday through the Turkish Straits with a sailor shouldering a MANPAD the entire trip through the Straits.
NOW today the Turkish answer.....Putin does not somehow realize Turkey can indeed shut the Straits down for Russia is it feels "threatened".....
BREAKING: Turkey enforcing special inspection of four Russian ships
Just what did Obama think with this suggestion........
SYRIA: Turkey gives the cold shoulder to US proposal to seal Syria border
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/Def...&NewsCatID=352
Obama must finally ask himself--if the US taxpayer has already invested 5T into Iraq and AFG and left tons of US equipment to include Humvees being used by Shia militia inside Syria and one gets this comment from the Iraqi PM......THEN why even stay in Iraq--finally allow the Iraqi Shia to fish or cut bait...meaning without US air strikes and drones allow the Shia to sink or swim......There is an anti Assad movement in Syria that is willing to accept US assistance and fight both Assad and the IS.....why not go full in...IS needs the Syrian battlespace-deny it and the IS Iraqi battlespace virtually disappears.....?
Al Arabiya English Verified account
@AlArabiya_Eng #BreakingNews Iraq PM says would consider foreign troop deployment ‘act of aggression’
http://ara.tv/7c6ca
One of the major reasons Obama has a mess in Syria is the utter mess he created in eastern Ukraine when he and his NSC and DNI totally avoided using the word "Invasion" instead of their word of choice "incursion".
By not at first calling bluntly a spade a spade --which would have made things easier to deal with later in Syria Obama actually choose to say nothing.
More proof that Russia directly attacked Ukraine. As Hollande, Merkel et al know, this was never a civil war.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/12/03/the-burning-ro… …
THIS is exactly why Obama has a "MESS" in Syria and it is really his "mess" alone---no one else's......
So OK—will Obama fully ever realize his failure with his “Iran Deal”……..???
Iran to get $100B boost in spite of stonewalling IAEA, testing banned missile, and exporting terror.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/iaea-finds-some-iranian-nuclear-weapons-act… …
The Parchin section is particularly damning. Environmental sampling Full text of final assessment on past and present outstanding issues regarding Iran’s nuclear programme http://theiranproject.com/blog/2015/12/03/final-assessment-on-past-and-… …
IAEA re #Iran: coordinated #nuclear weapons relevant work until 2003, some after, no evidence of such since 2009; no mat'l diversion for PMD
This is actually a very detailed report. IAEA - using its unique language - rejects most of Iran's explanations.
Nearly unnoticed #IAEA stated #Iran lied about earlier intentions to build "The Bomb".
IAEA: available info "including the results of the sampling analysis and the satellite imagery, does not support" Iran on purpose of Parchin
The Parchin section is particularly damning. Environmental sampling catches Iran in a lie.
DoS Kerry seems to be on another planet........
Also, unicorn farming has promising future. Kerry says Syrian ceasefire could lead to IS' defeat in 'months'
http://ctv.news/QuNDSSj
Russia is now officially fueling the Sunni Shia conflict in a far larger way than the Obama WH seems capable of understanding at this time and space in their current lack luster FP.
Iranian backed Houthi forces in Yemen receive weapons from Russia.
Russia is fuelling conflicts.
http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/News/2015/12/2/Saleh-begs-Russians-for… …
via @AEJKhalil
I know the Russian MoD has an ego problem when they compare themselves to the US military....but really---just what the heck are they doing embarrassing themselves this badly----in the info warfare they assume they are the best BUT lately social media is shredding them to pieces.
They keep releasing bombing videos of attacks on IS oil facilities and yet social media just keeps on geo tagging them as actual attacks on critical civilian food and infrastructure.
If I personally had a voice inside the Russian MoD I would tell them to finally correctly ID the videos and or simply stop releasing them all together but then the home front might ask the core question--Why??---it is now just plain embarrassing.
If this is the best the Russian MoD imagery analysts can do--then they have some serious problems...
Syria | New @mod_russia vid shows #RuAF airstrike on alleged IS oil storage near Tuwayzan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPfPNwhB7Ec …
Russia'n airstrikes on cotton depot near grain storage #Syria
Another proof that #Russia attack the food production in #Syria
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3eDynXdh8Y …
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=de&lat=35.936316&lon=36.607974&z=17&m=b …
Russia'n airstrikes on grain silos in #Syria - not oil reservoirs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0WhFUJy_no …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZkvXO-qSw0s …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp9-7ncYcK8 …
Russia'n lie propaganda shows a gas plant -not an oil refinerie in #Syria
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=35.342610&lon=40.321112&z=16 …
MORE Russian air strikes on grain storage.......
RuAF airstrike on grain silos geolocated near Surman, Idlib
http://wikimapia.org/#lat=35.597726&lon=36.864377&z=17&m=b …
https://youtu.be/ol4xMGgAbKE
Probably called at the next Russian MoD briefing--"we carried out a serious attack on IS oil production and storage"---we are winning a great victory against IS????? AND see we are better at bombing than the US led group----but again mis ID'd
Elijah says #Syria will attack any air craft with S-300 if penetrating air space without coordination.
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566325-irans-air-force-to-enter… …
So down Syrian S300 and Russian S400s together with SAAF, RuAF and now Iranian AF aircraft will shot down US, Turkish, KSA, UK, and French aircraft.
Saudi & Turkey will not like Iranian jets over Syria, let's see if they will take serious actions. https://twitter.com/ArtWendeley/status/672448600811700224 …
Just when you assumed things could not get even more messy.............
Report: Iran deploy 2 dozen fighter jets on Tiyas Airbase (T4) btw Homs & desert city of Palmyra
NOW let's inhale and wait for the response of the Sunni Front States.....we know Obama, the EU and NATO will not respond.
Iran’s air force to enter Syria conflict:
report
http://mme.cm/TKAW00 via @NOW_eng
Did the WH and NSC just wake up as this was pointed out during the Crimea events.......actually even earlier than that but not reported as required to Congress.
U.S. Considers New Sanctions Against Russia Over Alleged INF Treaty Violation:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/us-considers-new-sanctio… …
Russian is desperately trying to split any form of anti Assad grouping and causing a bit of confusion for everyone involved.....focusing especially on Turkish/KSA supported groups.
Basically turning Syrian now into a full scale sectarian conflict.....
Russian planes parachuted about five tons of light weapons + ammo to Kurdish Protection Units in #Sheikh_Maksoud Aleppo at 3 am yesterday.
NOT CONFIRMED.......but not surprising especially since Russian CAS has been supporting YPG and the Islamic State in their assaults on the FSA in and around Aleppo today.
DOES this sense to anyone at SWJ.....?
BREAKINGNEWS
#ISIS ADVANCES UNDER #RUSSIANAIRSTRIKES COVER VS. THE #FSA NORTH OF #ALEPPO.
6 km till #Azaz !!!
Unbelievable!
#Russia now in DIRECT frontline support for #ISIS, bombing the rebel front as #ISIS advances on #Azaz.
ISIS fighters trying to advance more and reach the border crossing with #Turkey, as #Russia attacking #Azaz city and Rebels positions.
As expected - Opposition forces lost Kafrah village to #ISIS due to heavy #Russia|n airstrikes, giving #ISIS the ability to gain territory.
But we must be honest: Not only #Russia doesn't hit #ISIS N of #Aleppo.
Also #Turkey, the #EU & the #US don't.
Common plan to defeat rebels?
Without #Turkey intervening, #ISIS will conquer the entire border and cut the supply line to civilians in #Aleppo within weeks.
Going to plan then: pound moderate rebels until irrelevant, left with only IS. West will then join Assad+RU. Assad happy man!
Bill---this also points to an interesting further development over the last week---YPG/SDF with support of the US, Islamic State and Russian air strikes attacking the anti Assad FSA.....can this get any more convoluted???
Under #Russia'n airstrikes & #YPG/#SDF ground attack #FSA were not able to hold Kafrah town against #IslamicState
Russia bombed #FSA with 100+ airstrikes in N- #Aleppo the past weeks- but not a single bomb hit the #IslamicState
IslamicState thanks for #Russia'n & kurdish #YPG air & ground-support against #FSA in northern #Aleppo- IS try to take 2 villages at #Azaz
InfoGraphic+Map: Factions involved in North Aleppo's Opposition / SDF Conflict | #Syria.
HD: http://goo.gl/ny3BUC
The interesting thing is Putin has alluded to his support in open comments directed to the YPG for a "Kurdish homeland" if they fight against the FSA and IS--but in this case it seems IS works together with YPG/SDF.
AND the SDF is US/CIA supported????
THEN this just in.........makes it far far more convoluted.......
Reports of major FSA operation N Aleppo w/ TRAF CAS vs ISIL & Assad. Putin made a move to Azaz & al-Salama trying to stop it in co. w/ YPG
Levant Front downed ISIL recon drone north Aleppo.
http://youtu.be/94803UtmEpA
Seems like the Shia are setting conditions in the information domain to attack U.S. forces. Just saw an article in the Washington Post (see link below) that points to Shia increasingly accusing the U.S. of supporting ISIL because they have seen videos of U.S. delivering water bottles to ISIL.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iraqis-think-the-us-is…
"The allegations of U.S. collusion with the Islamic State are aired regularly in parliament by Shiite politicians and promoted in postings on social media. They are persistent enough to suggest a deliberate campaign on the part of Iran’s allies in Iraq to erode American influence, U.S. officials say."
This information campaign to me signals Iran's intentions, probably with Russian support, to start mobilizing the Shia population in Iraq against the U.S.. If that happens, it will be a game changer.
Unconfirmed(!) report of two Russian helicopters down near the Turkish border in Latakia province.
Reports that 2 helicopters flying over Jebel al-Turkman (tail numbers “927" & “930”) have been lost. Opposition claims to have downed them
Info concerning shot down is still out there----- awaiting videos......
Now we have a clear Turkish escalation and let's see if Putin wants to match it.....
Potential "the emperor has no clothes" dialogue between Putin and Obama; this, in the context of our New/Reverse Cold War:
PUTIN TO OBAMA:
If the defeat of ISIS is your primary focus and objective, then why is it that you -- via your rhetoric and/or your more-compelling actions -- seek to undermine, overthrown and/or help overthrow the very authoritarian rulers and regimes who, for decades, have kept such disruptive forces in check?
I suggest that your such actions (of undermining, overthrowing and/or helping to overthrow authoritarian rulers and regimes) relate more to your "expansionist" designs; wherein, you seek to (a) gain greater power, influence and control in various regions of the world, this via (b) the transformation of outlying states and societies -- such as those of Ukraine and Syria -- more along your modern western political, economic and social lines.
Note that I am very familiar with these "expansionist" goals, methods and designs, as they, in many ways, mirror our Soviet/communist goals, methods and designs of the Old Cold War.
OBAMA TO PUTIN:
If the defeat of ISIS is your primary focus and objective, then why is it that you prop-up authoritarian rulers like Assad (which, I suggest, is an ISIS primary recruiting tool) and bomb, instead of ISIS, the pro-western rebels who seek to (a) overthrow Assad and (b) transform Syria more along modern western political, economic and social lines?
I suggest that your such actions (of proping-up Assad and bombing, instead of ISIS, the pro-western rebels) reveals your true purpose; which is, to (a) prevent the U.S./the West from gaining greater power, influence and control in various regions of the world; this, by (b) preventing the U.S./the West from transforming outlying states and societies -- such as Ukraine and Syria -- more along our modern western political, economic and social lines.
Note that I am very familiar with these "containment" goals, methods and designs, as they, in many ways, mirror our western goals, methods and designs of the Old Cold War.
JUST ME NOW:
I think that most of the outside/rest of the world sees the events transpiring in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere in these exact "New/Reverse Cold War" -- "the emperor has no clothes" -- terms.
Why is it that we, in sharp contrast, appear to be having such a tough time catching on?
Is it because we, having held the "containment" role for much of last century, have trouble seeing ourselves in an "expansionist" role in the current century; a role that we, our parents (and, in some cases, our grandparents) associated -- for almost fifty years -- with the "bad guys?"
If Russia is attempting to kick the U.S. out of the Middle East, then might this be seen, again, from the standpoint of Reagan and, in this case, his "roll back" initiatives?
Wherein, Reagan, much like Putin today, made it known that he wanted to not only halt -- but to indeed reverse -- the "transformation" gains that had been made by his great power enemy?
Herein, Putin, much like Reagan before him, showing himself willing to use brutal dictators in this cause?
Thus, a concern re: the example/the precedent set (and the methods used therein) by the U.S./the West in the Old Cold War.
Examples, precedents and, indeed, methods (see the linked "War on the Rocks" article in my comment below entitled: "America Did Hybrid Warfare Too") that now appear to be being used as weapons against us in the New/Reverse Cold War of today?
Note:
Via my New/Reverse Cold War thesis, and my associated "containment" and "roll back" comparison/suggestions above, does this not explain why Putin would be seen to be bombing -- not so much ISIS personnel -- but, rather, the pro-western rebel forces hoping to (a) overthrow Assad and (b) transform Syria more along modern western political, economic and social lines?
Bill--quick answer---NATO has fully indicated to Turkey that Article 5 does not trigger if Turkey provokes BUT if Russia does then it triggers.
Secondly, watch the moves I previously posted.....here it comes--now we are seeing the true Sunni Shia conflict surfacing...and again IS is just a side show.
Here it comes........
SYRIA: The UAE say they are ready to commit troops in #Syria.
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/172211/World/Region/UAE-say…
Seriously and I mean seriously--Putin is out of control and voices even inside Russia are starting to state exactly that now.
The economic war Putin declared on Turkey has largely been for show--all the moves actually hammer Russians and their costs of living.
Since the UAE has signaled they are entering the fray---UAE is a hard supporter of FSA and Sham and several other groups.....so when they enter under the explicit statement of fighting IS WILL Putin then bomb them as well or will his game be truly called for what it is a Russian expansionistic imperialist move, to gain foothole in the ME and to kick the US out of the ME?.
Outlaw:
Part I:
Below you said:
"Bill--here is the core issue--simply stated Syria is to Turkey what Russia argues the Ukraine is to them...and Turkey is acting as a regional power and has nothing to do with the US or the Russians--is it not the Russians who have expanded now into Syria and are basically challenging a regional power claiming all the while to be "in the right" in defending a proxy dictator who is bent on total genocide."
If you are right here, that Turkey is simply acting as a regional power and that this has nothing to do with the U.S. or the Russians,
Then should we say that NATO -- and indeed Article 5 -- are, in this current crisis, N/A -- not applicable?
Thus, should a greater conflict ensue between Turkey and Russia:
a. Then Turkey cannot ask for (or, at least, cannot expect) help from NATO? And
b. That the U.S. and other NATO nations are under no obligation, re: Article 5, to come to Turkey's aid?
Or, do you believe that NATO and Article 5 would apply -- in today's "expansionist" missions -- much as they did in our "containment" missions of old?
Part II:
A note as to brutal/proxy dictators:
President Reagan, in our "containment" role of the Old Cold War, and in the defense of Central America, etc., (i.e., our "backyard"/our "sphere of influence") used and protected proxy dictators who, themselves, did pretty nasty things.
Given my New/Reverse Cold War thesis, do you think that Putin is attempting to model himself -- and/or justify his actions in Ukraine and Syria, etc. -- vis-a-vis the Reagan/containment/"backyard"-"sphere of interest" precedent and example, outlined immediately above?
If this is indeed the case, then might we say that Putin -- much like Reagan before him -- is:
a. Drawing a "containment" line in the sand; this, re: expansionist activities in his "backyard"/his "sphere of influence?" And that Putin is suggesting that
b. What is good for the goose (use of brutal dictators in the "containment" cause; especially in one's own backyard/one's own sphere of interest) is good for the gander?
Thus, to see the "containment" WEAPON (and associated political warfare, hybrid warfare, UW, etc.) used against us in today's New/Reverse Cold War -- much as we used the "containment" WEAPON (and associated political warfare, hybrid warfare, UW, etc.) against our opponents in the Old Cold War?
(Note: If the above is indeed the case, then Putin would seem to have shot himself somewhat in the foot. Why? Because, via such a New/Reverse Cold War construct, Putin cannot seem to credible suggest that his actions, in Syria, etc., have much -- if anything -- to do with ISIS. Yes? This, because, in this "containment" light, Putin's mission, much like Reagan's before him, must be seen as [a] preventing states and societies in one's own backyard/sphere of interest from [b] being transformed more along the political, economic and social lines of the rival great power.)
Syria is just about to get massively messy......not sure even Putin can keep up with the changes.....
From a anti Assad social media comment 16 hours ago..........
Mark my words. This stupid Russian blunder in north Aleppo of bombing Turkish/Syrian borders is about to backfire. You'll see. Good night
THEN this three hours ago.......
BREAKING: Turkish Prime Minister has allegedly said that Turkey, Saudi Arabia & others will begin fighting terrorism in Syria - @AJABreaking
THEN it now appears that after destroying Turkish aid convoys, a bread bakery for 50,000, massacre 44 people at a marketplace and a massive food storage warehouse....Russia wakes up the simple fact that under the 1936 Treaty if Turkey feels threatened they can close down the Straits effectively ending Russian sealift to Syria and forcing then airlift which is slower and far more costly.
Tass mentions cancelled RU/TU navy exercise and hopes treaty will keep Bosporous open:
http://goo.gl/vAm0Uh
Now what should worry the West especially the US- does this mean the entire Sunni Front States are going to push troops into northern Syria to link into the FSA for moves in Raqqa and Aleppo?
Second worry--are we seeing the true fully fledged Sunni Shia conflict unfold.
Putin destroys food stores, bread production, aid convoys and yet never attacks IS.
Wheat caravan moving from #Daesh-held #Raqqa to #Assad held #Damascus
Business as usual
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzi-CgP1m5Y&sns=tw …
Why is there no Russian air strike on this convoy and Putin, Assad and the IS are all not in bed with each other???
Who does not believe Russia is as terroristic as the Islamic State needs to recalibrate their thinking---Russian has been attacking critical food and water sources, attacking churches, hospitals, residential districts and especially market places killing an average of 80-100 civilians including children DAILY.
Since when can we not declare a nation state a sponsor of terrorism if they in fact copy the same atrocities against humanity.....as does the Islamic State...??
News
Major Russian terror strikes on al-Dana near #Turkey tonight, hitting food warehouses
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKJ2...ature=youtu.be …
Humanitarian Relief @IHHen
Our bakery hit by Russia was providing daily bread for nearly 45 thousand Syrian IDPs.
pic.twitter.com/Ytus5LcVZ8
Humanitarian Relief @IHHen
A bread bakery, established by IHH in Syria's Idlib, has been hit by Russian airstrikes.
Russia wages an undeclared war on anything #Turkey related in #Syria: NGOs, truck, border crossings, fighters... [url]https://twitter.com/pzf/status/671050032754356224[/url] …
Several depots, processing facilities, bakeries etc hit. Likely related video.
[url]https://youtu.be/hfsJ-gws8Tk[/url]
Russia airstrikes on #One_Nation_Relief Warehouse in #al_Dana village,tons of food gone
New RuAF attack on Bab al-Salama border crossing with Turkey killed 7 ppl & destroyed 20 aid trucks @aboferasalhalab
Putin wants war plain and simple and yet the West just keeps on believing you can talk to Putin and or Iran......
AND Hollande wants to join Putin......??
In addition to the standard Syrian mess Putin has an internal mess that has been developing over the last three weeks that can seriously endanger his leadership.
This truck protest has been growing and growing and it is not stopping---all about a massive corruption scheme that Putin's son is involved in and has spread to all parts of Russia and with the OMON police even arresting key truck drivers---it is spreading.
Some experts in #Russia are comparing lorry drivers protest against Kremlin politics /w same events in #Chile & consequent fall of #Pinochet
Interesting to see a mini Maidan breaking out over the same reasons as it did in Ukraine--corruption.
Kremlin states all options on the table to deal w/ trucker protest as it moves to #Moscow
pic.twitter.com/OQvL1DecSv
Don't know yet how many lorry drivers going from Petersburg. They talk about 120 vehicles + Karelia and Murmansk. https://twitter.com/ars_ves/status/670977955611451392 …
Ah.....appears Russia conveniently "forgot" the past........Putin hypocrisy at it's best--maybe he needs a gentle reminder of his military actions in 2008??
Russian soldiers in Georgia in 2008 shoot pilot parachuting from downed Su-25
https://youtu.be/7bRWTsr-kTs
pic.twitter.com/YVugwfc1zO
IMHO Russia should reign itself slowly very slowly in as it fully does not understand the not so subtle threat voiced by the Turkish PM today----another SU24 incident can in fact happen again....and if that is a not so subtle threat I do not know then what a nation state threat is ---short of a war declaration.
AT some point the Turkish street which is proud and nationalistic will be demanding Turkish troops in Syria and I do not think Putin wants an open tank on tank conflict with a NATO member.
BUT then he might....
Turkish lecturer on being detained 15 hours in Moscow airport, questioned, yelled at by police & sent back @adagamov http://mirror574.graniru.info/Politi.../m.246370.html …
Solid article worth reading although in German.....
Ex-head of US military intelligence, Michael Flynn, regrets killing bin Laden & Zarqawi, turning them into martyrs.
http://spon.de/aeDec
Bill--here is the core issue--simply stated Syria is to Turkey what Russia argues the Ukraine is to them...and Turkey is acting as a regional power and has nothing to do with the US or the Russians--is it not the Russians who have expanded now into Syria and are basically challenging a regional power claiming all the while to be "in the right" in defending a proxy dictator who is bent on total genocide.
As per the incident with Turkey, the New/Reverse Cold War of today does appear to be getting more interesting/serious.
In this New/Reverse Cold War of today, it is the U.S./the West that is doing "expansion," and the Russians, et. al, today, that appear to be attempting "containment"/"roll back," etc.
Thus, much as with Reagan, Central America and Monroe Doctrine-like thinking in the Old Cold War, so it appears to be with Putin, Ukraine and Syria today. This being that, in both cases above, neither Reagan nor Putin would/will tolerate foreign "expansionist" efforts in these "containment"/"roll back" leaders' own "backyard"/own "sphere of interest."
Problem:
With Turkey being a NATO member, and with the shooting down of the Russian jet, are we not now talking about activities in what BOTH parties (the expansionist U.S./West and the containing Russia) consider as their "backyard"/"sphere of interest?"
This being the case, then where -- in our Old Cold War history -- do we find an incident similar to this? To wit: An incident in the critical "backyard"/"sphere of interest" of BOTH the expansionist and the containment parties?
Today the mess took a turn for the worse for Putin.
"Now, from what can be made out from Turkish media reports, majority of about 100+ M60A1s Israeli modified loaded on the trains belong to the 5th Armoured Brigade and are hauled in direction of Gaziantep."
First it was 20 being reported, yesterday that number jumped to 60 and today 100+--think Putin is getting the message????
Actually for Putin this is serious--it was the Russian military in eastern Ukraine that went from 20 to 100 then to 300 and then to 500 tanks--now it appears as if Putin is on the receiving end similar to the Ukrainian Army and he cannot fly enough T90s and or T72s in to balance out the TOW loses and poor maintenance.
Question is does he actually realize the Turkish escalation and if not will he make the wrong move that riggers the Turks into crossing the border and securing a NFZ from the ground?
Securing a ground NFZ avoids any TAF jet crossing into Syria thus making the S400s ineffective AND will Putin then attack a NATO army that is in the process of securing a safe zone for civilians who are being terrorized by Russian air strikes, cluster munitions strikes and being struck by WP.
ALL the Turks have to do is to point to the multitude of air strike videos and the 80-100 civilians being killed daily by Putin and the safe zone is a done deal.
NOW the mess is going to get interesting--Putin has declared "a trade war" against Turkey that in the end will cost Russian 60B USD vs 10B in loses for Turkey.
Putin famous S400 move has been largely countered by an elegant Turkish EW move..
NOW this which really hurts....it appears that Putin is no longer in control BUT is being driven by events and that is not good at long.
BINGO...called it days ago....
Called this days ago here---the initial report was accurate that he had been hit by a FSA TOW sniping team that ambushed his convoy---initial reports stated he had been slightly wounded came from a IRGC close journalist.
BUT this was the immediate actions of key Iranian units in the area of the convoy--they suddenly panicked and fled the battlefield when rumors just rumors circulated that he had been hit--it appeared to me they knew the exact incident and lost heart since their General who "walks on water" as the second coming of a Great Shia General had actually been seriously wounded not "slightly wounded".
My comment was ---he is dead and they are dragging out his death trying to figure out how to break the news to the IRGC and the entire Iran.
THEN there has been since the first small comment TOTAL SILENCE--absolutely nothing but silence and that alone was an indicator on just how serious he had been wounded--no pictures from the hospital where he was "recovering" or from a home "recovery"--nothing. Almost like "Rommel" when he was wounded during the WW2.
NOW this......
Seems #Iran's General of Qassem Soleimani seriously injured in #Syria #Aleppo
shell fragments in his head
If in fact this is confirmed--it is a serious blow to Iran and Putin as it was the plan of this General that got Russia involved in the first place.
He has a great effect on the field fighters just by his presence much like the US Generals Jackson and or Patton.
BUT and this is not a joke virtually any Iranian field commander that has had their photo taken with him has been killed in the latest round of fighting--it is almost like there is a seriously secret hit list out on them.
The sheer fact that the FSA TOW sniping team knew he was coming and where is an interesting tidbit.
Yes ---Iranian commanders lead from the front but in the end no army can afford to keep losing commander after commander just to lead from the front.
Bill M:
In announcing the new national security policy of the United States in 1993 ("From Contaiment to Enlargement"), then-National Security Advisor Anthony Lake appears to make something of a comparison re: the new U.S. strategy of enlargment (another way of saying "expansion"?) vis-a-vis the USSR's strategy of expansion during the Old Cold War. (Although, he [NSA Lake] did suggest certain differences):
"During the Cold War, even children understood America's security mission; as they looked at those maps on their schoolroom walls, they knew we were trying to contain the creeping expansion of that big, red blob. Today, at great risk of oversimplification, we might visualize our security mission as promoting the enlargement of the "blue areas" of market democracies. The difference, of course, is that we do not seek to expand the reach of our institutions by force, subversion or repression."
https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/lakedoc.html
After 9/11, however, might we say that the "force" gloves -- re: expansion -- came off? (Think Afghanistan and Iraq.)
And today, re: our discussions of "political warfare," do we not appear to be considering the use of "subversion" in the service of our expansionist/anti-containment designs? (See articles by COL Maxwell.)
So now, in our New/Reverse Cold War of today, to find almost all of the items/elements which are familiar to, and characteristic of, the Old Cold War, such as:
a. At least one, nuclear-armed, great nation (the U.S./the West today) doing "expansion?"
b. This, in the "backyard" (think Ukraine) and/or "sphere of interest" (think Syria) of at least one other other nuclear-armed great nation; the one doing "containment" (think Russia today)?
c. Some degree of support by the "expansionist" nation to, shall we call them, then as now, "wars of national liberation?"
c. The use of proxies/surrogottes by both sides in their such conflicting/opposed enterprises?
d. The use/potential use of political warfare by both sides?
e. The use/potential use of hybrid warfare, in support of polical warfare, by both sides?
f. The use of special forces by both sides?
f. The unique difficulties experienced by the expansionist nation (the U.S./the West in today's New/Reverse Cold War and the Soviets/the communists in the Old Cold War) as they find themselves at odds with the conservative/often radically conservative elements of various populations (think the Islamists v. the U.S./the West now and the Islamists v. the Soviets/the communists back-in-the-day).
g. (These such conservative/radically conservative elements of other populations being, quite logically, the "natural enemies" of expansionist nations; nations bent on transforming other states and societies more along various alien and profane [think "secular"] lines?)
h. The advantage -- noted in the "War on the Rocks" article referenced in my comment above -- which is held by the "containing" nations (the U.S. back-in-the-day; Russia today) as they operate -- with much more concern, much more focus, much more enthusiasm, much more dedication and much more determination -- in their own "backyards" -- and their own "sphere of interest?"
Thus, many similarities. Yes?
Bill C,
Before and during the Cold War the USSR based their foreign policy on both idealism (or constructivism) and realism. The USSR has always been vulnerable. They have the longest land border of all the nations in the world, and border more countries than any other country. If you look at it from a Soviet's (or a Russian's today) view, none of those border areas are exactly stable and secure. The Western borders (Europe) threatens Russian stability by providing a better economic and political model that Russians may want to strive towards. Much of Russia's southern borders are destabilized by Islamists, and in East Asia they face the potential threat of a growing China and a powerful Japan.
Historically, the USSR have sought to destabilize, divide, and otherwise weaken the strongest powers on their borders. NATO is only strong as a collective entity, divided they're weak and non-threatening. The USSR's activities in Eastern Europe are well known, less well know is that Stalin provided support to Chinese nationalists, Mao's communists, and various Chinese warlords to prolong the civil war and ensure China remained weak and less threatening. Stalin ousted Trotsky because he was pushing for a global communist revolution long before Russia was strong enough internally to support it. Nonetheless, the USSR did send provocateurs around the world to organize and mobilize communist movements. Many countries, including Nazi Germany and Japan saw this subversive threat supported from Moscow as their greatest long term threat. Eventually, the U.S., England, and the rest of Western Europe came to that conclusion also. England and Europe were economically devastated by WWII, creating ample opportunity for the communists to exploit by organizing the masses of unemployed and worker parties to conduct subversive activities. Their proposed communist model promised a better life, a promise believed by many until the USSR's and Mao's true colors were exposed.
It is difficult in my opinion to compare the U.S. strategy to the USSR's strategy during the Cold War. While their strategies may have some loose similarities, they are also very different.