Obama’s Fatal Fatalism in the Middle East by Fred Hiatt, Washington Post
Surveying the wreckage of the Middle East and the fraying of Europe, President Obama understandably would like us to believe that no other policy could have worked better.
The United States has tried them all, his administration argues: massive invasion, in Iraq; surgical intervention, in Libya; studied aloofness, in Syria. Three approaches, same result: chaos and destruction.
So why bother? Why get sucked into “a transformation that will play out for a generation,” as Obama described it in his State of the Union address this year, “rooted in conflicts that date back millennia”?
Even setting aside the offensiveness of such a sweeping dismissal of Arab potential, the formulation is wrong on two counts, one prescriptive and one analytical…
Comments
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
MORE proof that the Obama WH and especially their Deputy National Security Advisor Rhodes of the Iran Deal spin fame does not fully understand "wars in the grey zone".........
Will be interesting to see the Obama WH response...will they follow the much "hated FP establishment playbook" or relent and do nothing setting the stage for the next President to reestablish US FP towards Russia......
Obama WH and Kerry are in fact being fully combat tested by Russia interesting to see if they even recognize the challenge ........
CrowBat response......
Indeed, it would have been interesting to see,
- what would USN F/A-18-pilots have done if they were in their position (over the NSyA) when the Russians came in,
- would have called Russians to ask for these intentions, but
- Russians would (as usually) ignore their calls and continue bombing the NSyA...?
What are the ROEs for such cases?
After all, the NSyA is paid for by US-taxpayers to fight the Daesh, and is therefore de-facto a 'US military asset there' (and then one holding more of Syrian territory than all of the JAN and AAS combined).
CrowBat is offline
Will be interesting to see the Obama WH response...will they follow the much "hated FP establishment playbook" or relent and do nothing setting the stage for the next President to reestablish US FP towards Russia......
Obama WH and Kerry are in fact being fully combat tested by Russia interesting to see if they even recognize the challenge ........
Russian attack on New Syrian Army - US's best trained anti-Isil rebel force - even more provocative than we knew:
Russia conducted two sets of strikes against New Syrian Army, US pilot calls on open comms channel went unanswered
Michael Horowitz
@michaelh992
Very significant, #Russia is testing the US ability to support its allies in #Syria
Wow...this is what the US Obama FP gets the US when Kerry begs the Russians to please do not bomb our proxies.......how embarrassing is this????
Russia failed to heed U.S. call to stop targeting Syrian rebels: U.S.
http://reut.rs/1rtuhIW
Quote:
Russia launched a second air strike on U.S.-backed Syrian fighters battling Islamic State, even after the U.S. military used emergency channels to ask Moscow to stop following a first strike, a U.S. official told Reuters on Friday.
The official, who spoke to on condition of anonymity, said a small number of Syrian fighters were killed in Thursday's air strikes in southern Syria.
U.S. officials have criticized the strike near al-Tanf, saying it raised concerns about Russian intentions in Syria and promising to bring up the matter with Russia. No Russia or Syrian ground forces were in the area at the time.
Asked about the incident, the Kremlin said on Friday it was hard to distinguish between moderate and Islamist extremist rebels on the ground when it came to targeting air strikes in Syria because they were frequently fighting close to one another.
The incident underscored tensions with Russia and came as a leaked, internal State Department memo illustrated frustration within the U.S. government about America's handling of the war in Syria.
How is that Obama, Kerry, Lavrov, Putin relationship working these days....??
Russia/#Assad regime strikes on US-backed anti-#ISIS force are confirmed.
Destruction is total.
Consequences?
@BosnjoBoy (4) I recieved 30 photos. Everything is destroyed, 1 Humvee vehicle, 10 vehicles, all buildings damaged at least.
@BosnjoBoy seems Russia and also Turkey want delay defeating so-called IS/daesh. Different reasons behind.
BUT WAIT............
Pentagon says US is concerned that Russian aircraft conducted a series of airstrikes yesterday near al-Tanf against US-backed Syrian forces
And here's the state of US posture vis-a-vis Russia:
We're "concerned" that #Moscow struck our anti-#ISIS assets.
Deafening. If I'm a Syrian rebel why would I trust the US?
I went back into a New York Times 2013 article link below and noticed that it mentioned a comment by the "Obama WH infamous spin maker Rhodes" for their Iranian Deal...and it seems here in this article he was also "spinning" for the lack of a so called Syrian FP as well in 2013...he was identified in the article as an Asst National Security Advisor...nothing to do at all with his extra title "for Strategic Communications"....which came out finally in his own recent interview.
It would an interesting study to actually go back and collect all the comments made by Rhodes and then compare them to a recent Washington Post article where the Obama WH claimed their Syrian/IS strategy was fully successful and we the public and European leaders just did not "get it" and all the WH had to do was do more "messaging" and then we would "get it" and cheer the WH efforts......
Probably one of the most interesting research projects into just how the Obama WH has "spun" FP for almost eight years with absolutely not a single solitary strategy for anything....nothing outside of talk and talking has never been a "strategy".
Obama’s Uncertain Path Amid Syria Bloodshed
By MARK MAZZETTI, ROBERT F. WORTH and MICHAEL R. GORDONOCT. 22, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/23/wo...pgtype=article
Quote:
Continued.......
“We need to be realistic about our ability to dictate events in Syria,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser. “In the absence of any good options, people have lifted up military support for the opposition as a silver bullet, but it has to be seen as a tactic — not a strategy.”
But others are far more critical, saying that the administration’s paralysis left it unprepared for foreseeable events like the Aug. 21 gas attack. Decisive action by Washington, they argue, could have bolstered moderate forces battling Mr. Assad’s troops for more than two years, and helped stem the rising toll of civilian dead, blunt the influence of radical Islamist groups among the rebels and perhaps even deter the Syria government from using chemical weapons.
As one former senior White House official put it, “We spent so much damn time navel gazing, and that’s the tragedy of it.”
Continued......
You will notice that Rhodes uses the term "strategy" and this is an individual with absolutely no foreign policy background and or experience, no military service, does not even speak a foreign language nor spent time residing in a foreign country AND has absolutely no expertise in the ME BUT he uses the word "strategy" as if he is the leading expert on strategies......
AND yet he talks the great talk but cannot walk the term "strategy"....if he had to..he is simply mouthing platitudes and that is about it.....
This article talks about over 100,000 killed ...it is now 2016 and we are at 500,000 and THAT "strategy" that Rhodes talks about.....Absolutely nowhere to be seen and or heard from....in over three years?????
So Obama and Rhodes by basically "spinning" has contributed to an additional 400,000 killed Syrians in three years...and that might be a record for a so called "highly successful Syrian and IS none existent strategy".......
Russia jets reportdly overflying Tanf near Syria-Iraq border in heavy numbers, location of US-backed New Syrian Army https://twitter.com/Step_Agency/status/743770289062940672 …
AND the Obama WH response to this was what again...crickets and more crickets.....
Do we even have NCA leadership in the "grey zone"??
The #US confirmed, #Russia bombed its supported anti-#ISIS rebels near #Syria's border with #Iraq.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-bombing-us-backed-rebels-syria-us-off… …
AND this unit was under a short US/Jordanian MOC leash and only provided arms assistance IF they attacked strictly IS and not Assad.....and have been called traitors by the rest of FSA for not fighting as well Assad their common enemy.
WHAT is extremely interesting is that this comes as the Russian answer to Kerry's recent comments that Assad is the problem and the Us will get more assertive if Russia does not reign in Assad.
Russian answer....we do not listen to you and Assad remains.....
HERE comes the Russian MoD response from several minutes ago......
Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
3 mins ·
..
Quote:
#SYRIA
Russian Defence Ministry comments on information published in two American newspapers at once – the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal – concerning an alleged signing of a letter of internal use, which contains a call for bombing government troops in Syria, by half a hundred officials of the State Department of the USA.
"If there is just a little true in those publications and such important questions are solved in the US State Department by voting of the “working community” that cannot fail to raise anxiety of any reasonable person.
Here comes the main question: who is to be responsible for these bombardments? Will it be the majority of the “working community” of the US State Department?
Or we will witness another famous Hollywood smile as it had been in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya."
Earlier, two American newspapers – the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal – have published information concerning an alleged signing of a letter of internal use, which contains a call for bombing government troops in Syria, by half a hundred officials of the State Department of the USA as they call it the only way to fight the Islamic State and establish peace in Syria.
NOTICE they say nothing about they ACTUALLY being the AF of choice for the Islamic State and their total and absolute utter lack of attacking IS positions AND their strange idea that by attacking FSA they are in fact a substitute for attacking IS.....
AND notice the Russian MoD has not stated WHY they are bombing strictly US supported proxy WHO is actually fighting only IS and WHY they are flying over them heavily today as a show of force...
NOTICE the Russian MoD has not stated just why they announced a 48 hour ceasefire in Aleppo and then openly violated it four hours later and now want a longer term ceasefire...
AND notice we have yet to see a response from the Russian FM......
Is there a growing revolt inside the Obama WH over his utter lack of a Syrian FP....
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
Important:
50+ State Department officials issue memo to #Obama demanding "judicious" air strikes vs. #Assad regime:
Middle East
Dozens of U.S. Diplomats, in Memo, Urge Strikes Against Syria’s Assad
By MARK LANDLERJUNE 16, 2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/world/middleeast/syria-assad-obama-ai…
THIS now confirms the simple fact that Islamic State does in fact have an AF capable of hitting anything anywhere...called RUSSIA..
Breaking
Regime attacks supported by Russian air support are hitting FSA area of al-Tanf, Syria-Iraq cross border in rif-Damascus
BREAKING
The ISIS airforce is back in action.
This time near the Iraqi and Jordanian border.
This is an essential strategic area from which FSA forces launch their operations on Daesh in southern Syria
4 RuAF airstrikes w/ cluster bombs killed 2 fighters & wounded 10 from US backed New Syrian Army (fighting ISIS) base in S.,
WHY is Russia attacking a US supported proxy that is actually fighting strictly against IS??????an
NOW...simple fact....four air strikes by the RuAF is not an "accident".....
WARNING on the US...now will Obama and finally Kerry wake up and smell the coffee?????
Well so much for the vaulted CENTCOM US SF and USAF CAS.......support...AND meanwhile FSA battles Assad, Iran , IS and Putin...BUT nothing for their support BUT WAIT I thought the US was supporting YPG/SDF/PKK because they were attacking IS..........
Manbij: #YPG militias "delay operation of #Manbij to avoid civilian casualties". The truth: They have not the strength to capture #Manbij.
In the meantime IS has started a series of counterattacks which will eventually drive this much vault Manbij and Raqqa offense backwards .....again after the first failed SDF/YPG Raqqa offense ALSO with much fanfare......
Really great way to win friends among the local Syrian Arab Sunni's and the support from FSA......especially after five years of war crimes, starvation and genocide against Arab Sunni's as well as the massive Assad and RuAF bombing campaign on them right now....
Al-Masdar News
@TheArabSource
US backed rebels declare neutrality with the Syrian Arab Army
http://bit.ly/1Ymrn6j
BUT WAIT...that so called "Syrian Arab Army" is now made up of just Hezbollah, Iraqi/Afghan Shia militia's and the IRGC ...not many Syrian Arabs left in the SAA
This is now getting a little embarrassing to say the least....those 300 US SOF types supposedly supporting the US Kurdish proxy YPG/SDF/PKK and CENTCOM urgently need to rethink their strategy...especially in light of the simple fact Obama has none other than working together with Putin via a "golden handshake" in Syria......
Zaman al-Wasl started publishing leaked docs of Assad regime arming PKK/PYD to attack Turkey
https://en.zamanalwsl.net/news/16375.html
Documents signed by regime army officials in Aug 14 facilitated weapons delivery to PKK/YPD including Shmel-M man-portable rocket launchers.
Document signed Dec14 confirmed Assad army and PKK conducted joint military operations (probably against #IS) south Qamishli #Syria
AND that Obama WH "fatal fatalism" was again exactly WHAT??????
Utter silence out of this WH.....
Also in #MaaratAlNuman the #Assad/#Putin coalition destroyed children
Only watch if you can!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFrV0xzGAKE&feature=youtu.be …
Very Graphic.......
So it now appears that the US Obama WH FP is exactly that of Assad and Putin...the destruction of a civil societies attempt to overthrow a genocidal dictator......
Sad time in US FP history if that is in fact what this WH is doing.....
AND it is being supported by US SOF.....
US-backed #SDF spokesperson in short: We have no problem with #Assad and will not fight him
https://twitter.com/Ahmad_primo/status/741949622885711872 …
Counting the days it takes the US MSM and the Obama WH to pick up on this....
Update
36 people killed, most of them totally burnt, 70 injured, in just another Idlib market massacre.
Death toll of Russia/Assad airstrikes on #Idlib city & Ma’arat al-Nouman today has risen to 41, +80 wounded
BUT WAIT:
Assad regime news reporting that scores of terrorists were killed in the airstrikes on #Idlib today, all terrorists
LARGE number of children and women killed...
I wonder if the #US & #Russia are still working together uncovering who’s mass killing #Syria|n civilians everyday
This particular kabuki dance actually provides cover for Russia/regime operations.
English Interview @BILD w/@KyleWOrton
'Incendiary weapons r intended
to terrorise people.'
http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/syrien-krise/aleppo-forbidden-ammuni… …
So the US CAS backed Iranian Iraqi Shia militias...otherwise known as the US proxy fighting IS in Fallujah.....AND led by Iran
'Our guy'?!
#US-backed Shiite fighter burns & mocks Sunni man near #Fallujah.
Maybe he was an #ISIS fighter.
Maybe.
DOZENS OF CHILDREN KILLED BY #RUSSIA TERRORISTS AIRSTRIKES ON POPULAR MARKET OF #IDLIB
#SYRIA JUN 12
Video is to graphic....
Incredibly graphic images appear to show aftermath of Syrian government attack on a vegetable market in Idlib.
WHAT does it take to move the Obama WH to declare in front of the entire world that Russia/Assad are a state sponsors of terrorism....
BUT WAIT...now with a Russian/Assad air strike in broad daylight the entire US Intelligence Community will AGAIN STATE they cannot figure out who bombed the marketplace and killed a large number of children and women JUST as they could not figure out how bombed a total of 59 hospitals throughout Syria in the last six months.
Russia is burning Aleppo to the ground and the Obama WH simply no longer cares if it ever did in stopping war crimes and genocide...
Incredible picture of #Aleppo tonight after phosphorus attack by Russian Warplanes on residential areas.
Russian airstrikes on Anadan & Hraytan in N rural #Aleppo this PM with incendiary munitions
https://youtu.be/Mm8aYS-1nl0
Grozny all over and in the 21st century and Obama/Kerry remain silent...WHY is that????
Two extremes of the Obama WH full tilt to Iran as the regional hegemon in Syria.....
From a well known ME SME.......
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
Utterly, utterly heartbreaking…
This happens many times *every* day. #Assad’s killing machine must stop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdCQ...ature=youtu.be …
EVEN MORE Iranian elite Generals are now biting the dust in Syria......
Both Iranian elite forces Generals Rida Rustami & Saleh Hamid killed by Syrian Rebels in south Aleppo
While Obama is fully looking at IS...appears the so called somewhat supported US proxy FSA is also taking on at the same time IS and Assad and Iran and Putin all at the same time on a daily basis and US MSM seems to miss that not so subtle geo political point.
NO WORD by EU / US governments on Russia's ongoing WP terrorism around Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6Jc0QOOJ6w …
Footage
More Russian White Phosphorus attacks on rural Aleppo towns.
Every few hours now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIYvt68m00E …
Qais Khazali, Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq head already prepared his grave allegedly to signal his readiness for martyrdom.
Qais was involved in murder of five US soldiers in Karbala, JAN 2007; his militia is now in Fallujah with US CAS.
Bill...how in heck did this happen...so now is the Obama WH Syrian FP the exact same thing as Putin's Syrian FP...it now appears to be openly working with the Assad genocidal regime.....
How in the heck did CENTCOM and US SOF not know this?
Pro-Assad/Iran Al Mayadeen TV embedded with SDF at the Manbij front ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ap2LHkB8Suw&feature=youtu.be …
US and friends insist, SDF push is led by Sunni Arabs.
Pro-YPG tweeps claim, 90% YPG forces.
Who fools us here??
Romantic pic?!
Anadan, north of Aleppo.
A mosque, a water tower and a Russian WP attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKOujwgO-sc …
Another perspective on the same attack on the Idlib province town.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqzEHv-3EHo …
Bill...but see then on the other hand total silence even though Obama and the UNSC have previously condemned the use of Russian/Assad air strikes against hospitals......which BTW is a flagrant war crime.
Bombs from airstrikes hit 3 hospitals yesterday in Aleppo, including a children's hospital https://www.facebook.com/TheSyriaCampaign/photos/a.608812989210718.1073… …
Bill.....did the Obama WH just attempt to "catch the curve"...REMEMBER it was Obama and his echo chamber that has been for two years stating 1) the invasion by Russia as called by social media was being called by the Obama WH an "incursion" and 2) Obama was largely ignoring his own 2014 statement..."we will judge Putin by his actions not his words"........
NOW this yesterday........
US Asst.Sec State Nuland:
"Invasion of Ukraine, 1st Crimea then E.Ukr, shattered any remaining illusions ab. Kremlin
http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/mobile//statements/nuland-06072016.html …
NOW TWO full years later DoS seems to have "shifted" to the word "invasion"....WHAT a slow learning curve to finally admit you were "wrong"....
Aleppo Is Burning At least 40 Russia|n airstrikes hit Hayan, Hraytan & Anadan in the last several hours! They’re burning everything!
Intense Russia|n airstrikes with cluster, incendiary & standard bombs targeted Anadan in north rural Aleppo after sunset today
More footage of criminal Russia|n airstrikes targeting Anadan in north rural Aleppo w/ incendiary munitions today
https://youtu.be/dKOujwgO-sc
https://youtu.be/AluobzMpchQ
AND neither JaN nor IS is anywhere close to these strikes.....only the moderate anti Assad forces and all the Obama WH talks about is actually nothing .....not even a condemnation of Russia deliberately killing civilians in ever increasing daily numbers.
AND Russia states it is OK to kill them because Kerry approved it......
The LCC documented 94 martyrs in Syria today, including 12 children & 10 women
38 martyrs in Aleppo
34 in Deir Ezzour
8 in Daraa
6 in Idlib
5 in Homs
3 in Hasaka
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/5eebd...t-syrian-river
Turkey: No Kurdish force west of Syrian river
Jun. 7, 2016 10:06 AM EDT
Quote:
ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey's top diplomat said Kurdish rebels may provide logistical support in the fight against IS in Syria but warned their presence would not be tolerated west of the Euphrates River.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said "if the YPG want to provide logistical help east of the Euphrates that's different, but after the operations end, we don't want a single YPG member west of the Euphrates."
The YPG, or People's Protection Units, is a Kurdish faction within a mixed coalition of Kurdish and Arab groups fighting alongside U.S. special forces against IS in northern Syria.
Ankara, unlike Washington, views the YPG as a terrorist organization.
Turkey is seriously trying to get the attention of Obama that in fact a "red line" has been crossed and now crosses into Turkish national security concerns and they have repeated they will act.....
AND the UN has not tilted towards Russia.....if confirmed expect Turkey to not come as well as KSA and the FSA as well.
SYRIA: PYD confirms that Kurds have gotten an invite to the next round of Syria peace talks from UN envoy Mistura -
Bill..here is the ME perceived view of the current Obama WH FP towards Sunni's......
Shia sectarian killing being supported indirectly by US CAS......and FSA gets nothing against IS.......
Found the bodies of 40 displaced killed by Hashd in Fallujah district http://www.sotaliraq.com/newsitem.php?id=335600#axzz4AkteMUt9 …
Actually now disprove the Arab Sunni "perception" that the US has fully tilted to Iran and supports both Iran and Putin without questioning any of their Sunni civilian killing moves.......
You will not be able to disprove the current ME Sunni "perception of a US-Russian-Iranian "golden handshake"......
From our Washington Post article above:
BEGIN QUOTE
More fundamentally, the administration’s fatalism ignores a fourth policy option that Obama, from the beginning, was determined not to try: patient, open-ended engagement using all U.S. tools — diplomatic as well as military — with a positive outcome, not a fixed deadline, as the goal.
That is an approach that has worked before. In Korea, the United States forged an intimate alliance more than a half-century ago, and today U.S. soldiers and diplomats are still present. U.S. support deterred an external foe while — and people forget this, given South Korea’s stability today — helping steady a society torn by civil war as its people gradually built a democracy.
END QUOTE
Now, and re: the S. Korea example offered by our author above, let's look at the number of U.S. military forces needed -- in S. Korea -- to pursue the author's suggested approach:
Year Number
1950 510
1951 326,863
1952 326,863
1953 326,863
1954 225,590
1955 75,328
1956 68,810
1957 71,043
1958 46,024
1959 49,827
1960 55,864
1961 57,694
1962 60,947
1963 56,910
1964 62,596
1965 58,636
1966 47,076
1967 55,057
1968 62,263
1969 66,531
1970 52,197
1971 40,740
1972 41,600
1973 41,864
1974 40,387
1975 40,204
1976 39,133
1977 40,705
1978 41,565
1979 39,018
1980 38,780
1981 38,254
1982 39,194
1983 38,705
1984 40,785
1985 41,718
1986 43,133
1987 44,674
1988 45,501
1989 44,461
1990 41,344
1991 40,062
1992 35,743
1993 34,830
1994 36,796
1995 36,016
1996 36,539
1997 35,663
1998 36,890
1999 35,913
2000 36,565
2001 37,605
2002 37,743
2003 41,145
2004 40,840
2005 30,983
2006 28,500
2007 28,500
2008 28,500
2009 28,500
2010 28,500
2011 28,500
2012 28,500
2013 28,500
2014 29,300
Next, to multiply these numbers -- which are for the nation of S. Korea alone remember -- times the number of Middle Eastern states that require this type of "nation-building" effort. (Note: our author above is, in effect, suggesting this type of effort for the entire region -- not just a single state as in the case of S. Korea.)
(Do these computations for yourself.)
Then, to ask: Does our author's above such -- regional -- "nation-building" approach/policy option (originally suggested by the G.W. Bush Administration cir: 2003; when such things as "universal [Western] values" were in vogue in neocon/nation-building circles) look like a reasonable, doable, politically sustainable (able to gain, retain and sustain public and representative support -- over such a long period of time -- both here at home and abroad?) and, thus, intelligent foreign policy approach for the U.S. and re: the Middle East to you?
If not, then does the Obama approach -- or something similar to it -- seem more feasible?
Utter silence out of the Obama WH.....after Russia uses Kerry statements to justify the killing of civilians...not a single comment.....
SO Russia finally admits it is deliberately targeting and killing civilians WHICH they have been constantly stating....."it ain't us".....
Russia: "All civilians getting killed in airstrikes have themselves to blame" https://www.rt.com/news/345552-lavrov-syria-aleppo-support/ …
Every time Russia kills civilians it makes a statement denying that it did & everyone just forgets about it
http://tass.ru/en/world/880407
This is the most perfect example of just how hard western MSM is working or better yet not working......
Ukraine SBU arrested those involved and prevented 15 terrorist attacks in France but planners were not Muslim so it's not newsworthy
Just your simple everyday run of the mill proRussian neo fascists hard at work....planning on carrying out a "false flag" series of attacks.....
REMEMBER Obama's 2014 speech..." we will judge Putin on his actions not his words"......
This is the second time Assad has stated this in a public speeches...the first time the Russians reined him in...now it appears the Russians just did it to mislead the US and the UN into believing they really wanted to make Geneva work and Putin was not interested in "recapturing the entire anti Assad and IS held areas"......JUST as Assad claimed he was going to rebuild all of Syria that he and Putin have completely destroyed.....sure......
Syrian president Assad says "our war against terrorism" will continue until it is uprooted - televised speech
Cessation of Hostilities?
Regimes of Silence?
Forgot about it!
Putin,Rouhani & Assad want to recapture all of Syria.
WHILE US/SDF is racing to Raqqa...Assad and Putin are racing to Aleppo......
Russia & Syria'n regime have a daily beat rate of 70-120 airstrikes on Aleppo & suburbs
Now half of their airpower concentrated here
Russia'n carpet bombing on western Aleppo suburbs last night
https://youtu.be/aJRwBUDzOY8
Russia'n airstrikes with White Phosphorus bombs on Aleppo city last night
https://youtu.be/2qvnaP_C844
One wonders just what kind of US intelligence Obama WH is getting AND OR ignoring....???
SO again the valid question where does the Obama Syrian FP start and end or is it really just Putin's FP Obama is actually supporting???
AND that "other war" that the Obama WH is just riding out until November 2017.....
The Ukrainian Russian war just keeps on grinding away and the West says nothing......appears the West is getting use to a war just hours from NATO borders.....AND western MSM simply does not write about it any more as it does not "sell newspapers"......
ATO spox: 1 Ukr serviceman KIA and 9 WIA in yesterday's battles.
News
Record number of 40 Ukrainian army casualties during the first 6 days of June.
1 KIA, 9 WIA on Monday.
Ground battles are now in the hours ....not the previous 30 or 45 minutes as of two weeks ago.
Major escalation on the part of Russia and yet Obama and company say not a single word...as if they activitly support the Putin Ukrainian FP.
MFA Russia
@mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Russia believes that those still in terrorist-controlled areas in Syria should blame themselves – John Kerry was clear about this
Here we have Lavrov's ministry deferring to the State Department to justify indiscriminate killing of civilians via Russian air strikes.
MFA Russia
✔ @mfa_russia #Lavrov: We are ready to coordinate our military efforts with the US in Syria, but oppose delays that enable terrorists to attack
NOTICE the Obama WH does not push back on this info warfare in the least....OR actually they in fact agree with Russia and yet are afraid to come out and admit it to NATO and Europe.....
SO the core question back to you is.....with this Obama WH fatal "fatalism" have we now seen for the very first time a complete merging of Russian and US FP "end state goals"??
Without an internal US debate on whether we want to fall under the Putin FP "end state goals" as the FP goals for the US??
MFA Russia
@mfa_russia
#Lavrov: Russia believes that those still in terrorist-controlled areas in Syria should blame themselves – John Kerry was clear about this
Here we have Lavrov's ministry deferring to the State Department to justify indiscriminate killing of large numbers of civilians with air strikes.
REMEMBER Russian has defined from the very beginning of their military moves into Syria....anything that is not Assad is being viewed "as terrorist" thus NOW Russia has come full circle and is in fact now using Kerry as the representative of Obama as their argument.
REMEMBER the anti Assad forces took to the streets first peacefully demanding democratic changes 2011 ....not suddenly in 2016.
Bill...here is the response in simple terms as simple as I can boil down the 10 or so odd paragraphs.
QUOTE:
Barack Obama thought of George W. Bush much as Nixon did of Lyndon B. Johnson and Eisenhower did of Truman, and he certainly agreed with Kissinger. The core of a better strategy was to stop, as Obama had it, doing “stupid shit.”
UNQUOTE:
If as you stated this is really the core FP for Obama THEN need to think of the actions, thoughts, intellectual debates inside this Obama WH has actions in the "real world" that this Obama WH claims they are addressing.
Russia'n airstrikes with White Phosphorus bombs on Aleppo city last night
40 plus civilians killed being reported
https://youtu.be/v59gjCVWiRY
BUT WAIT the Russian FM stated yesterday that it was OK to kill civilians because it was their fault as per the Kerry statement.....
Outlaw:
Our Washington Post article above tells us is that "nation-building" is what needs to be done in the Middle East and that President Obama needs to get off his butt, admit this, and get about the job of doing it (to wit: transforming the entire Middle East more along modern western political, economic and social lines).
As I pointed out below, this would seem to take us back to 2003, when the then-Bush Jr. Administration -- as per the below earlier Washington Post article by then-National Security Advisor Condeleezza Rice -- suggested that we must do this exact same thing (to wit: do "nation-building" re: the entire Middle East).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/08/07/transforming…
There were, however, post-World War II Presidents that -- re: their foreign policies -- DID NOT heed this type of advice (Eisenhower, Nixon, Obama). These such president might all have been called (by those advocating "nation-building") arrogant, indecisive, wimps, scared, bad leaders, etc.
In this regard, consider the following that places President Obama, his way of doing business, and his "retrenchment" foreign policy, very much alongside that of Eisenhower and Nixon, to wit: Presidents who were also hired to get our nations' foreign policy back on a sustainable track:
BEGIN QUOTE
Yet personal differences were not decisive. Eisenhower and Obama chose policies strikingly similar to Nixon’s.
All three presidents began with the same analysis of their strategic predicament.
For the long haul—to avoid going “down the drain as a great power,” as Nixon put it—America needed a downsized foreign policy that better connected ends and means.
A “spasmodic reaction to the stimulus of emergencies”—Eisenhower’s description of the way his predecessor, Harry Truman, had done things—was not sustainable, politically or economically. Ike’s answer: military budget cuts that were deeper and faster than any his successors made.
In the same spirit, Nixon told Congress in his 1970 “State of the World” message that the United States could no longer “conceive all the plans, design all the programs, execute all the decisions, and undertake all the defense of the free nations of the world.” Other nations had to do more too—if only, as Kissinger had written just before becoming national-security adviser, to “discipline our occasional impetuosity.”
Barack Obama thought of George W. Bush much as Nixon did of Lyndon B. Johnson and Eisenhower did of Truman, and he certainly agreed with Kissinger. The core of a better strategy was to stop, as Obama had it, doing “stupid shit.”
Eisenhower, Nixon, and Obama further agreed on how to implement their analysis—by making the big decisions themselves. Humanizers and vilifiers tend to see the centralization of power in the White House as an outgrowth of Nixon’s and Kissinger’s personal oddities. In fact, strong policy control is characteristic of all retrenchment presidents. Elected to clean up a mess, they tend (with some justice) to view the bureaucracies they inherit as prisoners of old ideas and aims.
END QUOTE
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-long-history-of…
Thus, President Obama does not appear to stand alone here re: (a) doing what he thinks is right and (b) listening mostly to (1) those that hired him (the American people) and to (2) one's own counsel?
(This, rather than the counsel of the "nation-building" hawks?)
And re: "nation-building," we need to remember GEN Shinseki's suggestion of the need for "several hundred thousand troops" -- employed indefinitely -- to get the "nation-building" jobs done in such places as Iraq. (This, indeed, seeming to mirror the nation-building requirements re: this most-recent Washington Post article's example of S. Korea?)
Now: To simply multiply that (several hundred thousand troops; employed indefinitely) -- times every nation in the Middle East that needs "nation-building" -- to see if such foreign policy suggestions are, indeed, reasonable, intelligent, feasible and/or doable?
Let's also not forget the utter lack of any Obama WH concepts for the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine........
Another 1 KIA, 7 WIA yday.
Russia is hitting Ukraine harder and harder each month in 2016.
Domestic & intl. political reaction: Minimal.
Actually not a single western MSM takes any more notice, the EU wants to soften the Russian sanctions and the Obama WH says nothing but tells the Ukraine to hold elections in the Russian occupied eastern Ukraine...
HOW is it really possible that the US and NATO with a massive amount of ISR abilities especially on the US side along with US and NATO AWACs and the sheer amount of AD systems that record every aircraft movement.
HOW is this then possible.........??
1. Russian air strikes on a IDP camp and hospital...high civilian loses
2. Russian night air strikes on two hospitals with over 60 killed and 250 injured......
Still #UN and#US are unable to recognize the ID of attacking crafts!!
So have the billions of USDs that the US taxpayer paid for new and innovative ISR systems and satellites.....all been for nothing it appears...or the ISR systems simply do not work....
BUT WAIT.......
They don't want to upset Russia, since they're on the "negotiations" table. Obama wants a token success in Syria
Awkward! State Department report finds Iran is top state sponsor of terror
Quote:
Washington (CNN) — The State Department on Thursday released its annual report on global terrorist activity, listing Iran as the top state sponsor of terrorism and labeling ISIS "the greatest threat globally."
The report also includes statistics on terrorist activity worldwide, and said 11,774 terrorist attacks in 92 countries occurred in 2015.
The department's acting coordinator for counterterrorism, Justin Siberell, briefed reporters Thursday on the report's content, saying the document was used to assess the effectiveness of the effort to combat terrorism and to determine where to best place resources.
On Iran, the report said that country "remained the foremost state sponsor of terrorism in 2015, providing a range of support, including financial, training, and equipment, to groups around the world."
The report also said that Iran was continuing to provide arms and cash to terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia terrorist groups, including Kata'ib Hizballah (KH). Both groups are designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations in the report.
Iran is one of three listed state sponsors of terrorism, the others being Syria and Sudan. Cuba was removed from the list last year.
Siberell added that the department was "concerned about a wide range of Iranian activities to destabilize the region."
Iran's designation and continued sponsoring of terrorism is bound to fuel criticism of the Iran nuclear deal. Critics of the deal have charged that the removal of economic sanctions would allow Iran to increase its support of terror groups.
During an interview in Davos, Switzerland, Secretary of State John Kerry admitted in January that some of the money made available to Iran by the removal of sanctions would "end up in the hands of the IRGC or other entities, some of which are labeled terrorists," referring to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The report also described the global terrorist threat in 2015 as "increasingly decentralized and diffuse," noting that ISIS once again was "the greatest threat globally."
It included a statistical annex prepared by the University of Maryland, which said that worldwide there were 11,774 terrorist attacks in 92 countries in 2015 which resulted in more than 28,300 total deaths.
The report noted that the total number of terrorist attacks in 2015 decreased by 13% when compared to 2014.
Siberell said, "This represents the first decline in total terrorist attacks and resulting fatalities worldwide since 2012."
However, he added that terrorist activity had increased in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Syria and Turkey in 2015.
While the State Department lists the Middle East and North Africa as the "primary theater for terrorist activity," it also highlights the terrorist threat posed to Europe "from foreign terrorist fighters who returned home to Europe to plot and carry out attacks."
The report says that in 2015, ISIS and al Qaeda "increased their focus on staging mass-casualty attacks," noting attacks in Paris, Lebanon and Turkey.
The State Department recently issued a travel alert to U.S. citizens considering traveling to Europe, warning about the risk of potential terrorist attacks throughout the continent ahead of the busy summer travel season.
The report notes that Sub-Saharan Africa also "experienced significant levels of terrorist activity" from groups like Boko Haram in West Africa and Somalia-based al-Shabaab in east Africa.
Overall, the report lists 13 "terrorist safe havens" around the world where "terrorists are able to organize, plan, raise funds, communicate, recruit, train, transit and operate." These safehavens include remote areas in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America.
The report lists 58 "Foreign Terrorist Organizations," including ISIS, al Qaeda and various affiliates and branches of those two organizations.
Bill.....think this is not a serious fatal "fatalism"....???
NOT a single comment by either the Obama WH and or US MSM.....
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
#IS and the #Iran|ian revolution: both theocratic, use extreme violence, want to break down region's borders.
One gets Western air support.
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
In terms of forming a durable Islamist imperium that can function as a launchpad for attacks against the West, #Iran's way ahead of #IS.
Just two U.S.-designated terrorists waiting on that U.S. close air support
KyleWOrton
Suleimani is with his deputy, Jamal Ebrahimi (Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis), an Iraqi who's been an Iranian agent since the early 1980s.
Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis is wanted by the US over the bombing of Western targets in Kuwait in 1983, murder of 00s US soldiers 2003-11
So think about this for a moment....US CAS flying support for US designated terrorist....that is what the Obama WH Iran Deal got in the way of so called Iranian "moderates".....
I call that a very very short memory on the part of the Obama WH....
Since 2 years we hear of an "imminent Turkish ground invasion" in northern Syria.
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20...urdish-entity/
Ankara: Potential ground intervention in Syria to prevent establishment of Kurdish entity
June 3, 2016 at 12:08 pm
Quote:
Turkish sources have confirmed that Ankara will confront any attempts to establish a separate entity in north Syria that separates Turkey from its Syrian neighbours, criticising the United States for supporting the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD).
Turkey considered the PYD crossing west of the Euphrates River a red line and a threat to Turkish national security, according to London’s Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
Sources from the Turkish government also stated that Turkey reserves its right to defend its national security and has hinted at bilateral measures it would take in order to prevent the establishment of a separate entity in north Syria.
The sources noted that these measures include a ground intervention that may occur in order to prevent the separate entity being formed.
Ankara claims the PYD is linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
But this is as it goes directly to the heart of "fatal fatalism" and the numerous mistakes made around that issue.
NOTICE absolutely no reporting by US MSM nor Obama WH comment on this development....and it was yesterday so they had enough time to pick up on it and comment....
Quote:
Originally Posted by OUTLAW 09 View Post
CrowBat....need a serious thought on this move by the YPG at this time and moment and how will Turkey and KSA respond......
No idea right now, sorry. Alone the rumour about Erdo sacking the boss of the MIT might mean there is a major game change there.
BTW, have you seen this?
IslamicState ATGM hit his convoy ystrd + #US Special Forces team, no confirmation on US casualties so far
Then this: Faysal Abu Layla, of top cmdrs #Manbij op #ShamsShamal, med-evacd to #Erbil for treatment (GRAFFIC)
Then Abu Layla was declared dead... and finally:
Aleppo : Sources confirm the death of a #US soldier who was accompanied by two SDF commanders south of.
CrowBat is offline Report Post
Bill...ah you finally accidently used the correct words about the Obama WH FP or lack thereof...."fear and the coupled conception of risk aversion".....two deadly killers of any intellectual exercise especially needed with thinking clearly and critical thinking when formulating a national strategic strategy for anything.
QUOTE:
President Obama re: the Middle East, thus, simply needing to get off his butt, allay and put aside his fears/his concerns
"Fear and risk aversion".....interesting that you finally got to the core of Obama's own decision making problems.....
BUT I would also throw into the mix....."micromanagement" which he is famous for as well.
Now you fully and finally understand my brutal critique of his lack of any FP.
UNLESS one can ditch all three you are tied to "failure" regardless of any grand ideas one might have.
You certainly will never be a "true leader"......
Outlaw:
If we are going to, as you suggest, "debate the article," then I believe that we will have to set aside and leave behind your R2P/humanitarian arguments and concerns. These such issues/concerns are, after all, not addressed anywhere within this article.
So that would seem to take us back to strategic matters, to wit: the transformation of outlying states and societies more along modern western political, economic and social lines (i.e., "nation-building?").
Thus, and accordingly, the central concept expressed within the article would seem to be that:
a. The U.S./the West must do "nation building" in the Middle East (the term "nation building" is actually used in the article and the example of S. Korea is given). And that
b. President Obama is not adequately accepting of, nor is he adequately focused on, this mission.
So, as per the central concept and focus of this article (the requirement of nation building in the Middle East; President Obama not adequately admitting to and not adequately tackling this requirement), should we say -- re: the suggested requirement of "nation-building" in the Middle East -- that we are right back where we were in 2003?
To wit: A time when then-President Bush Jr., and his administration, told us that "nation building" -- i.e., the transformation of the Middle East more along modern western political, economic and social lines -- this was our strategic objective/our only way forward in this region in the 21st Century?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/08/07/transforming…
President Obama re: the Middle East, thus, simply needing to get off his butt, allay and put aside his fears/his concerns re: "nation building" (and the necessary use of significant ground troops in the pursuit of same) and get back to the -- unavoidable -- "nation-building" job-at-hand?