Obama’s Syria Plan Teams Up American and Russian Forces by Josh Rogin, Washington Post
The Obama administration’s new proposal to Russia on Syria is more extensive than previously known. It would open the way for deep cooperation between U.S. and Russian military and intelligence agencies and coordinated air attacks by American and Russian planes on Syrian rebels deemed to be terrorists, according to the text of the proposal I obtained.
Secretary of State John F. Kerry plans to discuss the plan with top Russian officials in a visit to Moscow on Thursday. As I first reported last month, the administration is proposing joining with Russia in a ramped-up bombing campaign against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syria branch, which is also known as the Nusrah Front. What hasn’t been previously reported is that the United States is suggesting a new military command-and-control headquarters to coordinate the air campaign that would house U.S. and Russian military officers, intelligence officials and subject-matter experts.
Overall, the proposal would dramatically shift the United States’ Syria policy by directing more American military power against Jabhat al-Nusra, which unlike the Islamic State is focused on fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. While this would expand the U.S. counterterrorism mission in Syria, it would also be a boon for the Assad regime, which could see the forces it is fighting dramatically weakened. The plan also represents a big change in U.S.-Russia policy. It would give Russian President Vladimir Putin something he has long wanted: closer military relations with the United States and a thawing of his international isolation. That’s why the Pentagon was initially opposed to the plan…
Comments
750 medical personnel killed in Syria,698 killed in attacks carried out by govt forces & their Russian allies:@P4HR
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2016/07/24/intense-airstrikes-syr… …
An interesting critique of the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry Russian proposal...and it is coming finally to the same conclusion those top ME/Syrian SMEs have been drumbeating since the proposal was first surfaced....it will weaken the anti Assad forces, turn the civil war into a true civil war, drive far more Syrians into the arms of AQ and basically KEEP Assad in power....not remove him.....
http://warontherocks.com/2016/07/wha...ly-as-planned/
What if a U.S.-Russian Deal in Syria Goes Exactly as Planned?
Faysal Itani
Most critics of the White House’s proposed U.S.-Russian cooperative arrangement against terrorists in Syria, the terms of which were recently leaked, have focused on what could go wrong. Russia may simply violate the terms of any agreement reached thereby undermining the mission, embarrassing the United States, and hurting its local partners. I am far more troubled, however, by what would happen if the agreement goes as planned. A successful Joint Implementation Group (JIG) would likely weaken or eliminate a strong component of the insurgency without compensating for the lost capacity, further tilting the military balance in the regime’s favor. Unless the United States can prevent that, the JIG would make a lasting negotiated settlement in Syria more difficult than it already is, setting the stage for open-ended civil war and further radicalization.
The JIG’s terms do not overwhelmingly favor Russia, at least not on paper. They place constraints on its military action in Syria in return for intelligence sharing and possible direct operational cooperation against Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate. Russia would also refrain from targeting jointly designated (and presumably opposition-controlled) areas. Russia would compel the regime to ground its air force across much of Syria. Indeed, Russia might find the JIG’s terms too onerous. It can after all continue its own unrestrained war on al-Nusra and the broader insurgency alike without U.S. cooperation.
If Russia does accept the JIG proposal, it could later derail it through cheating. It could simply violate the terms, especially over target designation and rules of engagement. The document does not mention any penalties for violations, but there appear to be none. Russia may fail (or fail to try) to prevent regime aircraft from operating over “safe” areas, just as it has failed to stop the regime from violating the Cessation of Hostilities, which broke down after a few weeks. Of course, there is little goodwill between the United States and Russia over Syria anyway, meaning intelligence sharing is inherently problematic.
In theory however the JIG could unfold exactly as planned: Russia and the United States would jointly weaken al-Nusra as a serious strategic threat to the regimeRussia would limit its attacks to designated targets and areas. And regime aircraft would be grounded across much of Syria. That would save innocents from regime aerial bombardment — a worthy goal in itself. Strategically, however, the JIG should be judged by the extent that it serves key U.S. policy goals in Syria: fighting extremism and enabling a negotiated settlement to the civil war. Weakening al-Nusra will bring some temporary satisfaction, but under the current military balance it would destroy any chance of a political settlement to the civil war. It also has the potential to further radicalize Syrians fighting the regime who would be rid of al-Nusra, but then find themselves even less prepared to resist regime violence and negotiate a lasting peace.
Like any U.S. policy in Syria, the JIG can succeed only to the extent that it accounts for the main context: the civil war. Both al-Nusra and the civilian suffering that the JIG seeks to mitigate are products of this war. Since Russia intervened against the opposition in October 2015, the military balance has increasingly favored the regime, which has made and continues to make important progress against the rebels. The highly strategic province of Idlib (where al-Nusra is strongest) is the insurgency’s most critical remaining stronghold and a staging point for major operations. Here, al-Nusra fights alongside other Islamist and nationalist brigades, but it is likely the single most capable fighting force in that coalition.
The JIG would break al-Nusra as a conventional fighting force, with two important effects. First, all else being equal, without al-Nusra the opposition will lose Idlib and, with it, its position in northern Syria. The insurgency would no longer pose a strategic threat to the regime, eliminating any incentive for the latter to negotiate a meaningful political settlement with the opposition. Indeed, the regime would be well-placed to crush the remaining insurgent groups as well, including U.S.-backed fighters. A successful JIG would prevent a negotiated settlement by eliminating much of al-Nusra’s capability without replacing or compensating for the insurgency’s lost capacity. This would either prolong the war or facilitate regime progress, killing and radicalizing more Syrians.
Second, anti-regime Syrians will see the JIG as a joint U.S.-Russian war on the insurgency writ large. Unlike the Islamic State for example, al-Nusra has built considerable local Syrian acceptance, including among major insurgent groups. It is reportedly considering disassociating itself from al-Qaeda to further bind itself with other Syrian insurgent groups. It will be increasingly difficult to target al-Nusra without harming civilians and other opposition fighters. Even if the United States and Russia do so with relative success, Syrians fighting Assad know the end-results will be a weakened insurgency, an intact regime, and a legitimized Russian role in Syria. Just as predictably, this will further radicalize both insurgents and civilians in targeted areas, especially as the JIG permits regime artillery and rocket strikes on opposition territory where the United States and Russia will also be targeting.
Those wanting to fight extremists and end the Syrian war must concede that any counter-Nusra plan should not strengthen the regime, whose military confidence remains the main driver of radicalization and obstacle to a negotiated settlement. An isolated military effort against al-Nusra would greatly improve Assad’s military position. Al-Nusra should be destroyed of course, but the JIG as currently conceived would very likely sabotage broader U.S. counterterrorism and strategic interests in Syria. An anti-Nusra effort should instead be paired with direct and proxy military pressure on the regime to prevent its capitalizing on a post-Nusra opposition’s weakness. This could include increased qualitative military support to vetted insurgents and a U.S. commitment to punishing any regime targeting of civilians. There are other means, but the aim is to make the military option unpalatable to the regime. Al-Nusra should not be targeted at the price of condemning Syria to endless war and terrorism. If unaccompanied by robust U.S. measures to protect a weakening insurgency and contain an emboldened regime, the JIG will probably destroy the Syrian opposition, rule out any negotiated settlement, and replace one set of radicals with another.
BUT what happens if in fact JaN splits formally from AQ and aligns itself with a number of the FSA units?????
Which BTW is currently about to happen....
THIS cannot be the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry strategy??????
YPG apologists dare to call the capture of the "Youth Housing Complex" defensive.
It's not. Assad-YPG coalition.
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/758292103319392256 …
This is a total offensive move against FSA in full support of Assad as the Kurds believe that Assad will allow them to split on their own...
The US supported Kurdish proxy YPG is working hand in hand with Assad...that cannot be the Obama FM....but maybe it is....?????
According to YPG propagandist here, YPG & Assad have a "strategic cease-fire" only involve jointly attacking rebels https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/758294934344597505 …
Charles Lister has just released his deep dive on JaN...(AQ)...well worth reading......
My deep-dive look at [for now] AQ’s affiliate in Syria:
http://brook.gs/2aKaiiY
He has written well over 15 articles since 2014 on JaN.....and has never been asked to present to the NSC or the Obama WH....how strange is that as he is considered one of the most knowledgeable on JaN (AQ) since they have been in Syria....
Notice that there is a major event ongoing for the last several weeks in the JaN (AQ) about their formal split from AQ ...openly covered by social media driven by three major ME/Syrian SMEs and VIRTUALLY ignored by the US MSM and this WH.....
BUT for the ME...extremely important specially for the defeat of IS on their own terms......which is the only way IS will be defeated in the end.
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
After 5 days of (unusual) silence, Jabhat al-Nusra’s Al-Manara al-Baydha media wing has re-awoken - issuing 7 posts today.
A #Nusra_Front official tells AP the group's leader #AlGolani plans to announce a disassociation with #al-Qaida soon #Syria
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
I’m told probably in a live interview with Al-Jazeera tomorrow.
Also, some key #Nusra leaders may still refuse.
From another commenter yesterday......
It is about finalized, split between AQ and JN decided unanimously by #Nusra, however everything else is just guesses.
For a breakdown of those ongoing JaN internal discussions it has been covered on the Syrian thread.
IF one takes the time one might notice AQ has not carried out any attacks on the West....has been strictly IS and AQ has "declared war on IS"...AGAIN largely missed on US MSM and here at SWJ.....
The Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH has for some very odd reason fully backed away from previous administrations who openly and publicly stated the US is against genocide and war crimes.......
AND this WH and NSC completely ignores the UNSC US Ambassador Power WHO wrote a 600 page book on genocide and the effects of genocide on politics.
WHY is that????
Samantha Power Verified account
@AmbassadorPower
Strikes by Assad regime hit 4 Aleppo hospitals in <48 hrs. Russia must do its part to stop the fighting. My remarks:
http://usun.state.gov/remarks/7381
Bombing hospitals is a known Russian-Assad tactic. Obama's coordination w/Putin makes us now openly and directly complicit in mass murder.
AND this is that "highly successful Syrian strategy/FP" this WH keeps talking about.....
From Aleppo 48 minutes ago......this is what happens when a WH FP is built on biases and false ideas built around "do nothing stupid"...even a mouse can do that these days.....but it takes leadership and personal courage to do something in the face of genocide and war crimes.......
The Shia have only ever brought betrayal and death to the land of Aleppo. If Aleppo falls it is all lost. We may see a Shia century..
Does the US really want KSA to go to full war in order to dam in the Iranian revolutionary Islam.....apparently so.......they have stated they are ready and willing to....
Apparently this WH does not know Iranian revolutionary Islam exists in the ME....and regards those US citizens killed by Iran to be basically just collateral damage along the way of "doing nothing stupid".....
BTW...this is the same Obama/Rhodes and Kerry WH that has never condemned the Russians directly for their air strikes on hospitals and IDP camp and or their ....they have never called them out by name and this is the same WH that has never clearly indicated that within 48 hours of the demanded Russian CoH...the Russians were already violating their own CoH....which in turn led to the Syrian HNC breaking off Geneva talks....
So why does the WH now believe they can in fact "trust" the Russians...
For the first time it is now apparent that the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH have actually reinforced the ME perception that there is in fact a golden handshake in both their explicit support of Assad and his regime forces...even the former US Ambassador to Syria has been trying desperately trying to dispel that "golden handshake" perception and YET Obama is bound and determined to do exactly that with this plan....
This so called plan by Obama/Rhodes and Kerry has been totally dismissed by the DoD, the entire Intelligence Community, the JCoS and a large number of Western allies especially since Russia has never held to a single commitment in eastern Ukraine nor in the so callfe Syrian CoH...SO why would they now....
Besides Obama/Rhodes/Kerry are trying to lock in the next US President to the plan as well......
http://www.businessinsider.com/kerry...ia-2016-7?IR=T
John Kerry: Military cooperation plan with Russia in Syria will be announced 'somewhere in early August'
VIENTIANE/GENEVA (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday he hoped to announce in early August details of a U.S. plan for closer military cooperation and intelligence sharing with Russia on Syria.
Kerry, speaking after meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of a meeting of Southeast Asian nations in Laos, said there had been progress in recent days on moving forward with the plan.
The proposal would have Washington and Moscow share intelligence to coordinate air strikes against the al Qaeda-affiliated Nusra Front and prohibit the Syrian air force from attacking moderate rebel groups.
In Geneva, U.N. Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura said he aimed to convene a new round of Syria peace talks toward the end of August, quietly scrapping a previous Aug. 1 deadline while keeping some time pressure on the U.S.-Russia deal.
"Our aim, let me say very clearly, is to proceed with a third round of intra-Syrian talks toward the end of August," de Mistura told reporters after meeting U.S. Syria envoy Michael Ratney and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov.
De Mistura said he strongly hoped Lavrov and Kerry would make concrete and visible progress because that would improve the situation on the ground and the environment for the peace talks, although such progress was not a precondition for talks.
More details of the U.S.-Russia plan needed to be worked out in the next few days, he said.
Kerry has defended the proposal despite deep skepticism among top American military and intelligence officials, including Secretary of Defense Ash Carter and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, over working with Russia.
"My hope is that somewhere in early August we would be in a position to stand up in front of you and tell you what we're able to do with the hopes it can make a difference to lives of people in Syria and to the course of the war," Kerry told a news conference in the capital Vientiane.
QUESTIONS ABOUT TRANSPARENCY
During the discussions, he and Lavrov outlined the next stage of implementing the plan, including a series of technical-level meetings to address concerns by the U.S. military and intelligence community.
Kerry's State Department and White House allies say the plan is the best chance to limit the fighting that is driving thousands of Syrian civilians, with some trained Islamic State fighters mixed in, into exile in Europe, and preventing humanitarian aid from reaching tens of thousands more.
A senior Western diplomat said the lack of transparency of the U.S.-Russia talks was frustrating and - with increased targeting of civilians and hospitals on the ground - it was hard to foresee any deal.
"The Americans are risking a lot for a deal that is as unlikely to be honored as previous engagements the Russians have made," the diplomat said.
US allies are extremely agitated with Kerry as they have absolutely no idea what he has committed them to since he has a tendency to over promise the Russians as he has done in eastern Ukraine....
OUTLAW 09 is online now Report Post
The UN is basically a worthless organization in Syria as they cannot even supply humanitarian aid where needed without asking the permission of Assad and Putin...just as the Us must "ask permission from Putin".....
UN calls for ceasefires to ease civilians' despair in Aleppo
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_tw …
Translation: another month of Russia/regime bombing
Simply declare a no fly zone over Aleppo and the problem is ended....
BUT WAIT.........
Obama is not just unwilling to do anything to stop siege, but offer a partnership with Russia that only benefit Assad militia on the ground
Take note. From this day on, the US will be considered by Syrian activists as complicit in all Russian and Assadist warcrimes.
More of the Russia that Obama/Kerry/Rhofdes and the entire NSC "thinks they can trust" which BTW it appears that DoD does not "trust".....
On the history of Russian dezinformatsiya campaigns, from Michael Weiss
http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...h-the-dnc.html …
Russian Wicked Leaks did not just start with the DNC hack ......
To read 80 page report: Russia's Government Funded Organisations in the EU (The Bear in Sheep's Clothing) http://www.martenscentre.eu/sites/de...sia-gongos.pdf …
BUT WAIT...even in the face of clear Russian security service hacking tools and clearly identified as such this is the Russian response......
#Kremlin spokesman #Peskov calls charges of #Russian involvement in #DNC hacking the "usual fun and games" during #US electoral campaigns.
Moscow Brings Its Propaganda War to the United States http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/25/moscow-brings-its-propaganda-war-to… …
Appears that Russia is now blaming civilians for simply living in Aleppo these days and in other Syrian towns they bomb...
Russian Mission UN
✔ @RussiaUN #Churkin: Use of civilians as human shields by the militants is inadmissible
Churkin: It's time to stop the unjustified delays and resume intra-Syrian negotiations under @UN auspices
BUT WAIT did he really mean those Russian mercenaries firing from Donetsk civilian areas and verified by OSCE...a slip of the tongue maybe....
Churkin demands explanations from the West on the attacks on the Syrian Manbij
BUT WAIT he does not explain why Assad and Russia are killing on average via their air strikes over 100 per day and WHY Russia bombed five hospitals. one blood bank and the UN humanitarian aid supply warehouse does he.....
REMEMBER this is the exact same Russia Obama/Kerry and the entire NSC want "to do business with"...in the veiled hope Russia stops bombing...which is a total illusion...
AND DoD correctly stated..."with Russia there is no trust"....
What people do when time is running out and one has to "enhance their legacies".....
Let's see...the US, Russia and UN are talking as usual about Syria and while they talk this continues....
AND this is the Russia the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH and the entire 700 person NSC that wants to "do business with Russia" while the entire rest of the US government ie DoD, DoS and European allies are against it.......
Another day of the world ignoring #Assad's & #Putin's air strikes on civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocCRe6YRj0w …
Assad war planes hit #Houla this morning, injuring 3 civilians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjgPAzpRN88 …
Russia'n airstrikes destroyed store of UN World Food Programm in Aleppo Syria - several aid workers killed
Remember when the US was interested in making sure humanitarian aid made it to the 780,000 besieged Sunni's.....
Appears there is no further interest and YET Kerry talks about the next Geneva meetings....
This is the direct result of doing absolutely nothing stupid.....
Same procedure as every day ...
First responders evacuate children from the rubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onbbPBjogJk …
Air strikes like the ones today ALWAYS ONLY TARGET CIVILIANS in #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEViB9tjDpA …
Irbin last night following Assad airstrikes on a market #Damascus
https://youtu.be/99hEiiERICs
https://youtu.be/SBy9xJPdWYU
Horrific photos coming out of Atarib in rural #Aleppo now, 25+ killed & 50+ wounded in at least 25 #Russia|n airstrikes
Multiple Russian/Assad airstrikes with regular & cluster munitions target Atarib in west rural #Aleppo
4 dead inc. 3 children & over 40 wounded in regime airstrikes on a local market in Irbin, eastern Ghouta, #Damascus
https://youtu.be/NOInDartqFg
Manbij Unconfirmed reports that SDF offer for ISIS to withdraw from city has been accepted.
This is interesting as YPG in the past has often worked together with IS...meaning IS would withdraw from positions close to YPG and then YPG would immediately occupy them....and using that game YPG has taken over more Arab Sunni territory...
So will this be declared a victory over IS...especially if they withdraw with their fighters and weapons....
ProRussian commenter with very solid ties to Moscow confirms that the Russians deliberately bombed a US/UK base
Yury Barmin
@yurybarmin
A) Moscow implicitly confirms that the strike did take place; B) Moscow makes it clear that it knows where US/UK secret bases are located
AND this is the Russian Obama/Kerry are trying to cut a backdoor deal on in Syria??????
Just the beginning of the crushing of Aleppo:
Russia's airstrikes yesterday destroyed three hospitals and blood bank in al-Sha'ar. #Syria
REMEMBER when the Russian Syrian Ambassador recently lied as is normal for Russians....."Assad is not going to attack Aleppo".......sure.......AND the Obama WH believed him apparently.....
REMEMBER....Assad in a much carried interview ALSO stated he was going to retake Aleppo and what was the West's response...utter and complete silence.....
Think about this...when the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH issued their so call non existent "red line" there had been only 70,000 Syrians killed by Assad.....
NOW years later and with no Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH strategy of other than "do nothing stupid" there are over 500,000 killed Syrians.....
And the Obama WH is "not complicit in these additional killings?????
Genocide and war crimes the "true legacy" of this "do nothing stupid" Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH Syrian FP.....
121 casualties across #Syria on Saturday (23.7.2016), among them 28 woman and 19 children.
- LCC
Rastan today.
Baby girls and old men - #Assad's & #Putin's favorite targets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn1U46Jmbkc …
Aleppo is FULL OF CHILDREN, 100.000+, and other civilians.
The world accepts #Putin & #Assad slaughtering them all.
The moment an #Assad #BarrelBomb hits a 5 floor building in #Huraytan near #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-e5-GGnlAU …
Deliberate, targeted air strikes on civilians
by #Russia happen every day in #Syria.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGaP9AqcGnQ …
Just another #Russian massacre in #Aleppo that killed 10 civilians today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUiJlJ83xlM …
While Kerry is off talking to Putin and the Russian FM around the world ...ROME.....literally burns to the ground and it appears the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH really does not care as at least they can say for their "legacy" we did not do anything stupid" outside of allowing genocide and war crimes to exist while we talked......
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
From @ICRC: pro-#Assad coalition systematically taking apart the necessities for life in #Aleppo, #Syria.
Just the beginning of the crushing of #Aleppo:
Russia's airstrikes yesterday destroyed three hospitals and blood bank in al-Sha'ar. #Syria
The #Assad-#Iran-#Russia coalition siege of #Aleppo will likely go dark for a while; then the stories of starvation and atrocity will emerge
Appears that the US so called Kurdish proxy SDF is not so "independent after all" as Kerry, CENTOM, US SOF and the Obama WH claim these days....
Arabic tweet says there have been clashes between the PYD and Arabs within the SDF (that the PYD dominates) in Tel Abyad.
Lot of internal tensions. EG Arab groups in the SDF have complained before that the PYD keeps them deliberately weak and dependent.
NOTICE that they use the term PYD not YPG as the PYD is in fact the core group and is inherently tied to the Kurdish terrorist group PKK as many have said and the US has largely ignored....
THIS does tie into the BBC Manbij field reporting that YPG is in fact leading the attack and the comments that the local Arab Sunni's would rather be saved by IS instead of the Kurds.
Nonstop #terrorism also continues vs. the last survivors of #Daraya, W of #Damascus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ws2b_V_S_RM …
In #Syria, every day sees the same #Assad/#Putin terrorism.
Also #Aleppo was hit hard today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ny0CiTrQo-U …
AND Assad uses CW again and the response from the US and the UNSC....crickets...crickets.....and more crickets......
That is how bad this WH has gotten in their FP..they simply have no idea exactly what they are doing...but it is definitely "not stupid"....
Assad has verifiably used CW repeatedly in the last year and even confirmed by US YET the Obama "red line" appears to have been basically all talk.....
Reports this morning of an Assad chlorine gas attack on the Layramoun garages area in #Aleppo after rebel attempt to regain lost positions
HISTORICALLY speaking....this would have been one of those cases that would and or could have proven that if the WH did absolutely something STUPID they could have potentially saved the lives of over 500,000 and still counting, would have ended the besieging and starvation of over 780,000, would have ended the refuge/IDP flows of millions, would have saved thousands of drowned Syrians in the Med including children, would have ended the torture, rape/disappearance of over 120,000 and would have hauled a genocidal dictator in front of the Hague for war crimes and genocide.
THAT might have been worth in the end doing something STUPID....INSTEAD the Obama WH actively supported the Assad war crimes and genocide by their non action......
Even though from 2013....must be read as it gives insight into the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH where "not doing stupid #### UNQUOTE became the driving force of their combined Syrian/ISFP......
http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...deaths/275328/
Why Is There a 'Red Line' on Chemical Weapons but Not on 70,000 Deaths?
Obama's strategy in the Middle East is 'engage where we must, disengage where we can'
Animal carcasses lie on the ground, killed by what residents said was a chemical weapon attack on Tuesday, in Khan al-Assal area near the northern city of Aleppo, March 23, 2013. (George Ourfalian/Reuters)
Quote:
As evidence of the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons mounts, the Obama administration has further confused matters regarding its own stated "red lines." The evidence appears to be strong but not necessarily "conclusive." As the April 25th White House letter states, "the chain of custody is not clear, so we cannot confirm how the exposure occurred and under what conditions." This sort of rhetoric points to an administration that finds itself cornered but, at the same time, seems intent on postponing any decisive action for as long humanly possible. The debate over whether, how, when, and to what extent lines were crossed not only seems petty (and undermines the very notion of a red line); it is also a distraction.
Presumably, the Obama administration's red-lining of chemical weapons isn't just about the risk of mass civilian casualties. After all, mass slaughter -- with over 70,000 killed -- has already happened and hasn't apparently shaken the U.S. commitment to studied inaction. The real concern is over the security implications of chemical weapon use or transport. First, the weapons could fall into the hands of non-state actors, metastasizing the terror threat. Second (and related to the first), the spread of chemical weapons would lead to unprecedented regional destabilization in the form of a sharp increase in refugee flows, which, in turn, could threaten the stability of friendly autocrats like the Jordanian monarchy.
These concerns are of course justified, but the focus on security implications -- rather than focusing on the 70,000 already killed by good old-fashioned artillery and aircraft -- suggests an outdated (and morally problematic) calculus for action. In saying that chemical weapons are a red line, the Obama administration is also saying that the killing of 70,000 Syrians is not a red line, which, when you think about it, is a remarkable thing to say.
More than two years after the Arab uprisings began, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that U.S. policy toward the Middle East is more or less the same as it was before. Whether it is Secretary of State John Kerry effusively
Animal carcasses lie on the ground, killed by what residents said was a chemical weapon attack on Tuesday, in Khan al-Assal area near the northern city of Aleppo, March 23, 2013. (George Ourfalian/Reuters)
As evidence of the Syrian regime's use of chemical weapons mounts, the Obama administration has further confused matters regarding its own stated "red lines." The evidence appears to be strong but not necessarily "conclusive." As the April 25th White House letter states, "the chain of custody is not clear, so we cannot confirm how the exposure occurred and under what conditions." This sort of rhetoric points to an administration that finds itself cornered but, at the same time, seems intent on postponing any decisive action for as long humanly possible. The debate over whether, how, when, and to what extent lines were crossed not only seems petty (and undermines the very notion of a red line); it is also a distraction.
Presumably, the Obama administration's red-lining of chemical weapons isn't just about the risk of mass civilian casualties. After all, mass slaughter -- with over 70,000 killed -- has already happened and hasn't apparently shaken the U.S. commitment to studied inaction. The real concern is over the security implications of chemical weapon use or transport. First, the weapons could fall into the hands of non-state actors, metastasizing the terror threat. Second (and related to the first), the spread of chemical weapons would lead to unprecedented regional destabilization in the form of a sharp increase in refugee flows, which, in turn, could threaten the stability of friendly autocrats like the Jordanian monarchy.
These concerns are of course justified, but the focus on security implications -- rather than focusing on the 70,000 already killed by good old-fashioned artillery and aircraft -- suggests an outdated (and morally problematic) calculus for action. In saying that chemical weapons are a red line, the Obama administration is also saying that the killing of 70,000 Syrians is not a red line, which, when you think about it, is a remarkable thing to say.
More than two years after the Arab uprisings began, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that U.S. policy toward the Middle East is more or less the same as it was before. Whether it is Secretary of State John Kerry effusively praising
regimes and failing to muster even a sentence of criticism; the unwillingness to condition economic assistance on democratic reform in countries such as Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan; or conducting business as usual in Bahrain, one of the worst human rights offenders in the region; the bottom line is much the same - security trumps all.
I joked on twitter recently that if an alien came from outer space and was only allowed to read transcripts of Secretary Kerry's regional press conferences, it would probably have no idea that something called the "Arab Spring" happened. For hardline realists, this is perhaps evidence of prudence and sobriety. They, and others, are right to point out that the United States isn't exactly a human rights NGO. It is the responsibility and duty of politicians to protect American citizens, not Syrians. This is all fair and good, but one would have hoped -- particularly after September 11th -- that we retired the notion that Americans can stay insulated from what happens in Syria, or Lebanon, or Jordan.
This leads us to an even more troubling question: if one of the world-historical moments of recent decades doesn't lead us to re-think the fundamental assumptions guiding U.S. policy, then what will? The timing, of course, was unfortunate. Arabs decided to have their revolutions in a post-Bush era of recession and self-doubt. Not only that, the Obama administration turned out to be more ideological than one might have expected. The unwillingness to entertain limited intervention in Syria -- despite there being both a compelling moral and strategic rationale -- points to a president who is not willing to re-examine positions and change course even after the situation on the ground has changed radically. The Obama administration simply does not want to intervene in Syria (again, just look at the excruciating wording of the White House letter ).
The basic thrust of Obama's strategy in the Middle East -- if one can call it that -- is engage where we must, disengage where we can. It is about reducing our footprint in a troubled region. It is about a loss of faith -- after the disasters of Iraq and Afghanistan -- in America's capacity for "good" intervention. This is all understandable. But it is also unfortunate. Because halting the slaughter -- by targeting the Syrian military assets doing the actual killing -- is something that the United States and its allies could do, if they wanted to (former senior U.S. official Fred Hof outlines how here). It might not be enough to bring down the regime, at least not anytime soon, but it would be enough to protect and save at least some of the Syrian civilians who find themselves in the regime's crosshairs. Of course, for many, that's simply not a good enough reason. But it should be.
BTW...notice the estimated figure of 70,000 killed....SINCE this article the indecision of the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH to do any "stupid ####" UNQUOTE has now contributed to over 500,000 and counting daily and YET this WH still insists in not doing "stupid ####" UNQUOTE.
Some might say this is a direct result of the not wanting to do "stupid shit" UNQUOTE by the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH....
The White Helmets
@SyriaCivilDef
This video shows a typical day in Aleppo - follow the work of a medical team in #Aleepo. MUST WATCH. https://www.facebook.com/aleppo24news/videos/1123104444394990/ …
BUT since the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH does not care about genocide we will be seeing more of this daily now......
Notice the Russian response to the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH plan.........
Aleppo today.
The worldwide accepted genocide continues.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUDTY4eMUVY …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrjr9utTT-M …
A third @sams_usa hospital is bombed in #Aleppo today. Many injured.Aleppo residents have no way to go @BBCWorld
BUT WAIT was it not the US that could not figure out just who was bombing Syrian hospitals....or bombing IDP camps...or dropping cluster, incendiary or thermobaric munitions......?????
Now in Manbij when a former school housing IDPs is hit killing over 125 civilians...men, women and children....silence out of the US...but initially they claimed those killed were IS until social media pointed out otherwise.....along with the photos and videos.....
Notice the same thing happened in Iraq when a so called IS convoy out of Fallujah was hit and civilians were killed.
Now that we know that the Kerry mission to Moscow failed the Obama/Kerry/Rhodes/now Russian WH is still trying to implement their proposed joint Russian bombing plans.....which has even been rejected by the DoD and the SecDef and a lot of others far more knowledgeable on Syria than this WH is....
Ignatius: US officials report increasing evidence that Nusra is plotting external operations against Europe & US
A new jihadist threat may be on the horizon in Syria
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...e6a_story.html
Those ME and especially Syrian non DC/US think tank SMEs who are far more knowledgeable on JaN and the other anti Assad groups....are trying to figure out just what is it that this WH does not get....as there is absolutely no indication that JaN wants to and or will operate outside of Syria as it's main focus is Assad and building their own Caliphate.
SO are we now seeing the Obama/Rhodes WH "spin" trying to implement their proposed joint Russian air strike concepts via the "back door" of "hey we must strike JaN as they are going to attack the "world"....
Sorry to say this...but this is another perfect Obama/Rhodes "spun story" just like they "spun" stories for their Iran Deal that is now slowly falling apart.
As one who has been watching JaN now for over two years...JaN has never released a single statement indicating their interest in "attacking the West" rather there has been a ton of statements on their intentions of defeating Assad and now Putin and especially Iran....
What was done recently by JaN has been largely overlooked by western MSM and ESPECIALLY the Obama/Kerry/Rhodes and now Russian WH....JaN knowing the intentions of the Russians during the Geneva talks knew they were going to be targeted heavily SO they basically pulled themselves out of most of the cities and towns and withdrew virtually into the "wilderness of the olive groves" WHY they simply stated...the Russians are going to use us as the excuse to bomb and kill civilians thus we will remove ourselves in order to protect Syrians......which in fact they did and it was even posted on the SWJ Syrian thread.
Example..all the western MSM and yes even the US WH just keeps repeating JaN is in Aleppo thus the Russians are correct in bombing Aleppo. EVEN CENTCOM has repeated that "spun line" and even social media has attempted to get CENTCOM to clean up their act on that fact.....
Jan pulled out of Aleppo months ago and have only between 30-50 fighters inside the city and they do not control nor influence anything inside Aleppo....those left behind are more like a coordinating cell who work with the other groups on planning attacks on Assad, Hezbollah and Iranian forces surrounding Aleppo.
Does Obama and Putin really care about that "small fine print" not really otherwise this particular MSM article would not have been published.
You can this article is "spin" because Ignatius never really names "US officials report"...normally a true source would be identified as someone who is "not authorized to comment".
WHAT is also amazing is that Ignatius misses a critical number of ME/Syrian SME articles pointing out in fact that the lack of non support of the US towards say FSA and others in attacking Assad is in fact driving far more Syrians literally into the arms of JaN as they see JaN as the only major player truly fighting Assad, IS, Hezbollah and Iran.
Secondly, there was a recent article posted on the SWJ Syrian thread on exactly how the anti Assad forces are slowly easing parts of JaN away from AQ...
Totally and apparently deliberately ignored by this writer and the Obama WH is seems.
Kerry and Nuland just went to Moscow "to judge if Russia/Putin was serious about finding a resolution to eastern Ukraine and Syria".....NOTICE outside of a press conference where Nuland was not even present NOTHING absolutely NOTHING was achieved....
We have the heaviest fighting on the Minsk 2 front line since August 2015 with heavy UAF loses and yet they still attempt to hold to the agreement and try not to return heavy artillery fire out of fear of being blamed by the US and the Normandy Four of "violating Minsk 2".....
In the Syria the killing of civilians just keeps on keeping on....with an average of over 100 civilians a day being killed and that includes children and women..
The only thing US & Russia seems to agree on in Syria is killing more civilians & completely destroying the country to enforce their interests and or lack of interest.
WHEN will the Obama/Kerry/Rhodes and now Russian Wh finally learn that Putin only understands force....probably never since they are out of the WH in five months.....they are already in "let's throw this to the next President" mode we have "safely secured our own legacy" but at what cost to the lives of Ukrainians and Syrians and the damage done to the US FP for years to come.
It's louder on Mars than on Earth when it comes to condemning Rus/Syr air strikes on Aleppo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ft_wMI_CYI …
NonstopTerror
10 civilians killed, 35 injured in 5 Russian air strikes on #Idlib overnight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl3frL36rjs …
Just another air strike on #children by Putin&Assad, this time in #Idlib city.
Heard of it from any of the MSM?!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnV7YVU1dek …
REMEMBER..even the Russian Syrian Ambassador recently publicly stated that Assad would not be attacking Aleppo.....right......
For all the Kerry talking with the Russians nothing has been achieved as Putin simply wants a total victory over any opposition to Assad...and until Obama/Kerry/Rhodes WH does something forceful...Putin will not react.
MUSTWATCH
English interview with doctor John Keller - only Western (US) doctor in #Aleppo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PF-sXRw5nTM …
I haven't seen anything that looked like a terrorist (in Aleppo). I have seen damage done to children, pregnant women and family houses."
Larijani advisor Hossein Sheikholeslam, an old Levant hand who helped midwife Hezbollah in 80s, back as Iranian amb to Syria—1st stint 98-03
Was a hostage-taker at US Embassy in 1979. A telling appointment, as #Tehran takes a grip over #Assad in #Damascus.
Those "moderates again.....
BREAKING: Secret docs obtained by AP show deal which would allow Iran to replace its centrifuges after just 11 years
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/140ca...ke-constraints …
Really worth reading...why is it that social media and Syrian SMEs are far better informed than the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH, the entire 700 person NSC and the entire US IC and CENTCOM combined..........
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister
In this, I exclusively reveal a secret process aiming to split +/- 1/3 of Jabhat al-Nusra away -> new non-AQ group.
"Under Pressure, #Syria’s Rebels Face al-Nusra Quandary”
My new *exclusive* piece.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/...b0e7c8735055e4 …
Just how crazy is the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry WH getting these days.....
First they cannot identify who bombed two Syrian hospitals in the middle of the night....
Secondly, they cannot identify who bombed two Syrian IDP camps......
Thirdly, they cannot even state who is dropping cluster, incendiary and thermobaric bombs on Syrian civilians......
Fourthly...they never could prove who invaded eastern Ukraine
THEN this...they had no idea about the developing coup........
No intel on #Russia invading #Ukraine. No intel on 'special status' fallout.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6knKz4Xzb90 …
Appears that we need to replace the entire US Intel Community with open source social media analysts......
BUT WAIT did not the Russian FM and Putin virtually guarantee that all Assad chemical weapons had been removed from Syria....APPARENTLY Russia lied...again as usual and yet Obama and Kerry insist on trusting them....
How did this not cause a bigger stir? OPCW all but accuses Syria of lying; US warns Assad may retain CW
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2016/Jul-13/361877-syria-m… … v @JPZanders
Charles Lister @Charles_Lister ·
This has [grudgingly] been known for a long time within high-level govt circles -- 20%+ of 2013 stockpiles remain.
Sami @Paradoxy13 · 17 Jan 2015
Assad’s alleged secret #CW storage sites in #Damascus according to a senior official in the Republican Guard.
This was taken from a previous posting of mine here at SWJ....
QUOTE:
We have covered US Middle East policies extensively in previous issues of MEB. We see this policy as utter failure to adapt to contingent circumstances stemming either from limits on US abilities or the rapid roller coaster in the region. From the Arabs standpoint, the structure of US interests has shifted the moment the nuclear deal was signed. The temptation of wining Iran back as an ally was blinding US officials.
The straw that broke the camel’s back was the recent offer made by the US to cooperate with Russia to defeat a dangerous group of the Syrian opposition, freeze the issue of transition in Syria, accept Assad for the time being and focus on reducing violence and humanitarian assistance.
This offer enraged the relevant Arab capitals. It is considered a retreat from previous commitments and a reward to Assad and Iran. It alerted the Arab countries to the possibility that president Obama may be moving to bind the next administration with a policy favorable to Tehran.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir hat an unscheduled meeting with Secretary John Kerry on July 7 to inform him, according to State Department official statement, that Riyadh is ready to send ground troops to Syria. Al-Jubeir, however, explained the Saudi opposition to any deal between Moscow and Washington that endangers the roadmap agreed upon in Geneva. Even taking the Department’s statement at face value shown the degree of contrast between two allies, one talking about a deal to bomb the Syrian opposition and preserve Assad, and the other talking about sending troops to support the opposition and topple Assad.
The meeting was between Jubeir and Kerry was followed by a fiery speech given by former chief of Saudi Intelligence Prince Turki al-Faisal to tens of thousands of Mujahedeen Khalq in the “Free Iran” conference in Paris July 9. During the speech, the Saudi former official responded to thousands chanting “down with the regime” by saying: “me too, I want this regime down”. He also promised the opponents of the Ayatollahs with “a certain victory”.
When Saudis wave again the possibility of sending ground troops and take a visible stand in support of Iranian opposition, this means they are indeed running out of patience and ready to escalate.
This explains the cry of outrage from the Iranians when the Saudi Intel Prince met with MEK...a sworn enemy of Iran .......
Has the Obama/Rhodes/Kerry and now Russian WH fully thrown the Ukrainians and anti Assad forces under the bus in the name of their own "legacies".....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...P=share_btn_fb
Rebels fear Assad victory in Syria as noose tightens around Aleppo
Opposition groups brace for onslaught as US and Russia agree to cooperate, and Ankara sends peace feelers to Moscow and Damascus
Quote:
Just over a month into Syria’s uprising in 2011, the leader of Lebanon’s Druze sect, Walid Jumblatt, travelled to Damascus to visit Syria’s then security tsar, Mohammed Nasif. As well as being the Assad family’s most trusted senior official, he was also the linchpin of Syria’s close ties with Iran and Hezbollah, a man bound more than most to the fate of the regime.
“He said to me at the time, it’s either us, meaning the Alawites, or them, meaning the Sunnis,” Jumblatt recalled. “I knew which way this was going then. He added, ‘even if it cost us a million dead’.”
More than five years later, the toll in the now raging war is well past a quarter of that estimate – international monitors stopped counting last August. The sectarian dimension to the fighting foreshadowed by Nasif is a reality. So is the destruction of much of the country, including the ancient city of Aleppo, which after years of being viewed as the key to Syria’s fate last week slipped from the grasp of the opposition and into the hands of the Syrian regime’s allies, led by Hezbollah.
The encirclement of Aleppo is a significant moment in a war that has led to more unrestrained savagery, international repercussions and unlikely alliances than most others in modern times. Another emerged last week, as Hezbollah and Syrian troops were beating back the al-Qaida-aligned Jabhat al-Nusra from farmlands to the north of the city. As that battle raged, the US was drafting a deal with Russia that would create a joint operations centre to coordinate attacks on al-Nusra and Islamic State.
The move has created despair among the ranks of the Syrian opposition, which insists that a pact between Moscow and Washington will entrench the Syrian leader, whom Russia and Iran have saved from defeat over the past 12 months. Adding to the alarm of the now diminished rebel ranks is a detente, also signed during the week, between Moscow and Ankara, after a seven-month standoff, as well as the Turkish prime minister’s remarks that Ankara was interested in peace with Damascus.
“This all means that Assad is no longer at risk,” said a senior official in the western-backed Syrian opposition. “This means that he has won.”
In the eyes of the exiled political opposition and rebel fighting groups still in Syria, the political realignments mark a decisive phase in a war that they believe they can no longer win. In recent years, as Bashar al-Assad’s allies have weakened the rebels’ position, a belief endured among opposition military leaders that if they could not win the war, Assad could not either. That view has changed.
“I’m sitting here in a ruined house in eastern Aleppo,” said Abu Sobhi Jumail, a Syrian opposition fighter who has fought across northern Syria for the past five years. “I have the Russians in the skies, the Syrian air force too, when its planes can fly. I have Isis to my east, Hezbollah to my north and al-Qaida [Jabhat al-Nusra] in between. They abandon us, and tell us to rely on God, and then condemn us when we are forced to seek help [from al-Nusra]. Without them we would all have been killed a year ago. That is not politics. That is life and death.”
Since Russia launched its large-scale intervention last October, opposition units that had been backed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the US have been the prime targets of Moscow’s bombers. Isis has largely been spared, with notable exceptions such as in Palmyra.
Turkey, too, has mostly left the jihadis alone, concentrating its fight on Syria’s Kurds, whom it views as a subversive extension of Turkish Kurdish groups, which Ankara continues to fight.
Though remaining a supporter of the Syrian opposition, including Islamic elements such as Ahrar al-Sham, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has focused much of his energies on ensuring that Syria’s Kurds do not seize control of more of the shared border and that their use by the US as proxies in the fight to seize land from Isis in eastern Syria does not amplify the Kurds’ ambitions.
“We are doomed in Aleppo,” said Suleiman Aboud, who fled with his family from the rebel east of the city in February. “The next phase of this will be revenge. No one has paid a price for all these abuses. That is what hugging Assad does. This revolution was noble. It may not have been fully democratic, but people are allowed to fight oppression. We have the same rights to safety and freedom as you.”
Acknowledging the immense suffering across rebel-held parts of the country, Gareth Bayley, the UK’s special envoy for Syria, said: “The situation on the ground in Syria is dire. The UK is deeply concerned by the regime and its allies taking ground and harming civilians in Aleppo and rural Damascus. This is in direct violation of the cessation of hostilities and there is appalling suffering amongst the population.”
There is no way out of eastern Aleppo and north to the Turkish border, with the last remaining supply line severed. A blockade that has all but taken hold over the past year is now likely to be enforced, say the few remaining residents of the eastern half of the city.
“For a long time people have been out of ideas,” said Abu Subhi. “There is no enthusiasm to assist us. They want it all to go away. But you will all be judged for what has happened in Syria. I won’t be alive to witness it, though.”
BUT WAIT are we not watching the US trigger with their caving to the demands of Putin a potential ME war between KISA and Iran....
IMHO we are getting to be one step closer to that KSA decision.....and there is nothing the US can do to stop KSA once that decision is made....
This is the Russian FM response to Kerry......NOTICE the strong difference in wording and phasing between the two.....
Quote:
FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV: (Via interpreter) Continued....
As for Syria and the issues that we see within the context of implementing the decisions of the ISSG and the UN Security Council resolutions, as John said, we have agreed today on some very specific steps, but those steps cannot be regarded as results as such, as results in themselves, as of now. A very specific result of today’s negotiation is our agreement on these steps, and I hope very much that our experts on both sides will do everything quickly and with full awareness of their responsibility considering our two countries’ roles as co-chairs of the ISSG and the initiatives proposed by our two countries that were approved by the UN Security Council.
You asked whether this concentration of effort by the U.S., its focus on fighting the al-Nusrah Front will mean that the most effective anti-Assad group will become weaker, will be weakened. I understand that reporters have the right to instigate a discussion with hard questions, but the UN Security Council stated several times that there can be no excuse for terrorist attacks; nothing can serve as an excuse or a pretext for supporting or abetting terrorist activities. And ISIS and the al-Nusrah Front have been identified as terrorist groups by the UN Security Council, and as such they must be eliminated. And all the countries that are part of the ISSG have unilaterally – have unanimously agreed on this. This is also the unanimous attitude of the United Nations laid out in UN Security Council resolutions. They have previous examples in history where certain governments tried to coo terrorists, to court terrorists and use them to their own ends in order to topple governments like in other countries. Back in Soviet time, we do remember the history in Afghanistan where some of our counterparts supported the Mujaheddin in Afghanistan, believing that the Mujaheddin would help them inflict maximum damage against Soviet forces and later they will be able to tame those Mujaheddin. But tame them they have not managed to do, and those Mujaheddin later morphed into al-Qaida, which on September 11th, 2001 committed a horrible terrorist attack in New York, after which our countries had to unite against terrorism.
We also have the more recent example in Libya, where countries that were determined to overthrow Qadhafi did not shy away from cooperating with certain terrorist groups, and we all see what’s – where this has gotten us. Today Libya is a den of terrorism. It is a country which is in the hands of radicals and the weapons supplied to anti-Qadhafi groups have spread out all across the region and now we are all doing our best to keep this country together and keep it from falling apart and becoming a festering pit for terrorists.
As for the Syrian issue, we could go on and on discussing who is to blame. We have our roadmap laid out in numerous documents starting from the Geneva communique of June 2012 plus the UN Security Council resolutions plus the decisions by the ISSG, and all of those documents clearly state that the Syrian people, the people of Syria, are the only one entitled to decide the future of Syria. This means that what we need is to finally implement the agreements that we already have and put all those groups in Syria at the bargaining table, the negotiating table, including the Syrian Government and all of Syria’s political group.
Unfortunately, regrettably, with all due respect to our colleagues in the United Nations, no one has tried to do that as of now. The effort by various UN officials to play the role of charter diplomacy, trying to put various groups at a negotiating table and act as intermediaries, they have not been successful. The roadmap requires a direct negotiation between the warring parties. It is the same drill in all other countries, with Libya or other countries of the world: A direct negotiation between the warring parties is needed for a settlement, for a peaceful settlement; and no international stakeholders, including Russia or the United States, is entitled to substitute this process.
However, we can exert our influence on the groups that we support and on the parties that we have in this country to urge them to sit down at the negotiating table and start talking to each other, and we hope that such a process, such a political process, will be launched in the future, in the near future, and that the future political process in Syria will be based on democratic principles and on the UN’s Charter which states, which maintains that the peoples are entitled to decide their own fate, primarily through free and fair elections where politicians will take place in the race and where voters will be able to make their choices.
As for the second part of your question, we have agreed that ISIS and the al-Nusrah Front are terrorist groups and they are exempt from any ceasefire arrangements. They are supposed to be eliminated. They are our common enemies, and the ISSG has clearly decided and has clearly agreed that the opposition groups in Syria that do not want to be associated with terrorists and that are willing to join the ceasefire and become parties to the ceasefire, they must separate themselves from ISIS and the al-Nusrah Front, including geographic separation – they must physically separate themselves and geographically separate themselves from the terrorists so that nobody would be able to speculate that in some – in certain areas in Syria, the terrorists are mixed and intertwined with the moderate opposition.
There has been enough time in the past months for moderate groups in Syria to join the ceasefire and separate themselves from the real terrorists. I believe that those who have not done so should not be considered constructive opposition or moderate opposition. Those are people who are trying to benefit in their own way from dealing and cooperating with terrorists. We understand the complications that our American counterparts have to face, especially as regards practical steps aimed at separating and distinguishing moderate opposition groups from the terrorists such as, primarily, the al-Nusrah Front. But we in Russia are also convinced that in recent months, such complications could have been already overcome or removed, and the measures that we have agreed on and that we will have to get down to implementing in the days and weeks to come, we hope that those measures will enable us to – after a certain deadline, I don’t know what to call those people. But I believe that those who have stayed in those positions despite the many months and the numerous calls to leave them and to separate themselves from the terrorists, maybe those people are not very different from terrorists themselves.
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Can't say you weren't warned: Lavrov told Kerry to his face Russia will treat all #Syria opposition like al-Nusra.
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Lavrov has fun with Kerry now that he's turned the entire focus in #Syria to symptoms (IS/Nusra) over cause (#Assad)
Kyle W. Orton
@KyleWOrton
Very odd statement from #Kerry about #IS, and a telling point of praise for #Russia/#Iran, slap at allies re #Syria
Outside of so called "concrete measures" not much else came out of an over eight hour set of meetings....
FRANCE 24 English
✔ @France24_en Kerry: US, Russia agree 'concrete steps' to save Syria truce
http://f24.my/29Zwg1H
THIS shows just how much even Kerry is in an altered state of reality when it comes to Syria as there has been no CoH for now days.....on end after massive Iranian, Assad and Putin air and ground attacks.....
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Kerry's precedents for US-Russia cooperation: #IranDeal, 2013 CW "deal," DEC 2015 climate change deal. Cheers you up for #Syria, doesn't it?
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
Kerry's press conference with Lavrov last night is incredible: history re-written on IS, Russia/Iran's role in Syria
http://bit.ly/29DMzQg
Quote:
SECRETARY KERRY: So with respect to Turkey, I only – because we have been engaged very deeply in discussions all day, and literally Sergey and I caught up to the news of what may or may not be happening at the very last minute before coming in here. So I think it’s inappropriate for me to comment except to say that we’ve heard the reports that others have heard. I don’t have any details at this point in time. I hope there will be stability and peace and continuity within Turkey, but I have nothing to add with respect to what has transpired at this moment.
With respect to the critics who may or may not be making judgments about what may or may not have been agreed upon, first of all, they don’t know the details of what we have or haven’t agreed on. And number two, we have homework to do, and I said that very clearly. Number three, the United Nations Security Council has labeled both Daesh – or ISIL, as some call it – and al-Nusrah, which is al-Qaida – they are labeled as terrorist organizations. And the United States has no clouds over our – there’s nothing standing in the way of our judgment about the need to be standing up against and fighting against terrorism. And both are terrorists.
So if some critic is criticizing the United States or Russia for going after al-Nusrah, which is a terrorist organization, because they’re good fighters against Assad, they have their priorities completely screwed up. The fact is that Nusrah is plotting against countries in the world. What happened in Nice last night could just as well have come from Nusrah or wherever it came from as any other entity, because that’s what they do. And so I have no illusions about what we need to do. I also have confidence in the people of Syria and confidence in the opposition – the non-terrorist organization opposition, the legitimate opposition, the opposition we have supported – to continue to fight for their freedom and for their principles and their values within Syria. And there is nothing that we are doing that is going to undermine the particular fundamentals between them and the Assad regime.
We have always said – and nothing that we’re talking about doing here will change the fact – that there is no military solution to the problem of Syria. It requires a diplomatic, political solution. And that political solution requires going to the table and having a negotiation in Geneva according to the terms of the Geneva accord.
Now, as I said a moment ago, there are two principal violators that have been persistently violating what is going on with respect to the ceasefire. And one is, as I said, the Assad regime with its indiscriminate bombing, and the second is obviously the question of al-Nusrah – which, as you just said, is fighting against Assad and which is providing no peace and security and which, regrettably, some opposition have occasionally chosen to fight with because they are fighting against Assad. But that doesn’t excuse it, and it will not excuse it in our eyes. We saw what happened when people said the same thing about ISIL for a period of time – oh, don’t worry, they’re just a force against Assad, and down the road we can take them on. Well, they became more than just a force. And so I think that it is important for the United States, Russia, the entire coalition of ISSG to stand up against terrorism, and that is what we intend to continue to do.
Now, we continue – not one iota of our policy has changed with respect to the Assad regime. We still believe that Syria can’t have peace while Assad is there. We believe that. We have a difference with Russia on that. But notwithstanding that difference, we both believe it is important for us to try to reestablish the cessation of hostilities.
And when we first came to the table in Vienna and I proposed a ceasefire, put it on the table, it was not Russia or Iran that said no. Both of them said yes, we should have a ceasefire. But there were others at the table who opposed proceeding forward with a ceasefire, and some of them, unfortunately, I think, may regret that today. But the point is simply that we have consistently been working towards the full implementation of a ceasefire.
Now, final comment. It gets very confusing, obviously, on the ground with respect to who’s who and who’s where, and that’s part of the homework we’re going to do in order to absolutely be able to be clearer to people about who is supported by whom and who needs to change their behavior in order to adhere to the ceasefire itself.
And we had a long conversation about that today. I’m not going to share all the details of it because it won’t work unless certain things, conditions which we agree have to be met, are put in place. So we’re not here promising the world, not here tonight to suggest to you that overnight this is going to change. But I am here with confidence that if the things we talked about and agreed ought to be implemented are, in fact, implemented, then this has the opportunity to change the playing field significantly. And let the proof be in the pudding, not in our words.
REMEMBER...this is virtually the same thing that Obama stated in 2014 about Putin's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine....
(And let the proof be in the pudding, not in our words.)
"We will judge Putin by his actions not his words"..........
So was Kerry just "channeling" Obama/Rhodes and the Russian WH??????????
Bill...here is the core problem and I have been hammering this for two years now.....
The Obama admin leaned on Russia to save its bacon in Syria repeatedly and was burned every time. No lessons learned https://www.commentarymagazine.com/f...russian-hands/ …
American Power in Russian Hands
Noah Rothman / July 14, 2016
You would think that Barack Obama would have learned his lesson by now. You would be wrong.
Quote:
According to reporting by the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin, the United States has proposed to cooperate with Russia in the skies over Syria. The proposed plan would create a new joint military command-and-control office where both nations’ militaries could coordinate their strikes on terrorist targets. What’s troubling in this proposal, however, is it would appear to prioritize Russian targets and, thus, Russian interests.
“Overall, the proposal would dramatically shift the United States’ Syria policy by directing more American military power against Jabhat al-Nusra, which unlike the Islamic State is focused on fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad,” read Rogin’s dispatch. The proposal would ostensibly allow the United States to draw Russia into making more strikes on ISIS targets, which it has been previously reluctant to do, jointly with American forces. In the event, however, that there was a substantial threat to its Assad regime allies from Nusra or the terror group advanced beyond unspecified “designated areas,” the Russian air force could act unilaterally.
How this proposal advances American interests in the region is subject to interpretation. The risks, meanwhile, are clear, present, and simply cataloged:
Kerry sees the proposal as a way to reduce the violence in Syria and ground the regime’s air force. The risk is that attacking Jabhat al-Nusra in conjunction with the Russians will spur terrorist recruiting, increase civilian casualties and put the United States firmly on the wrong side of the revolution in the eyes of the Syrian people. Also, there’s no enforcement mechanism if the Putin or Assad regimes violate their commitments — as they have consistently done until now.
Secondly, this pact would ratify what Russia partially achieved with its “de-confliction” agreement with the United States: the legitimization of its military intervention in Syria. And if Russia’s intervention in Syria is legitimate, then so are the interests it is defending: namely, the preservation of the genocidal Bashar al-Assad regime.
In the absence of a multinational coalition, Barack Obama has never been comfortable with anything more than pinprick precision displays of kinetic American military power. In Syria, the president has been losing members of that anti-ISIS coalition for some time, and Russia’s addition might suffice to mollify some of their concerns about the appearance of unilateralism. The president has, however, been relying on Russia to effectively manage American interests in the Middle East for years and has repeatedly been burned in the process.
In his desperation to avoid following through with his “red line” for action in Syria in the autumn of 2013, after a series of mass casualty chemical weapons attacks on civilian populations by Assad forces, the president leaned on Russia. In a prime-time address to the nation, Obama announced that Moscow had agreed to broker a third way in which they would oversee the removal of chemical weapons from Syria so that American airstrikes can be avoided. Today, chemical weapons stockpiles are still in Assad regime hands, as well as in the possession of terror groups like ISIS, and American airstrikes were not averted.
Russian support for Assad, welcomed by an American administration that continued to issue contradictory calls for the Syrian dictator’s abdication, was a great success. Russia bought time for his forces, which were beleaguered and collapsing by October of 2013, and they secured their last post-Soviet port on the Mediterranean at Tartus. But those gains could not be sustained forever without direct intervention. After weeks of importing support personnel and equipment, a Russian three-star general marched into the American embassy in Baghdad with a simple message. Federation air strikes on “terrorist” targets in Syria would begin momentarily. “If you have forces in the area we request they leave,” he reportedly said. Russian forces immediately began harassing American drones, shadowing Turkish fighter planes, and seeking to push the West out of theater by force.
Even after all this, the Obama administration continued to hope that Russia could somehow extricate itself from the Syrian nightmare it allowed to metastasize through inaction. Even as Russian forces reportedly deployed cluster munitions on civilian targets and targeted brick-and-mortar hospitals with airstrikes, the White House still begged the Kremlin to impose a ceasefire on the belligerents in Syria. Time and again, the administration has been disappointed by their Russian counterparts, but that disappointment never seems to dissuade them from taking another kick at the football.
It should be abundantly clear by now that this administration will never be comfortable with America’s prohibitive military power. They would prefer to be used and embarrassed by their erstwhile partners in the Russian government than to unapologetically pursue American interests and grand strategy. In Syria, in particular, the Obama administration’s reputation has been severely damaged. If only the White House could see it.
Russia jets recently killed 135 civilian relatives of US-backed rebels in no-man's land on #Syria-Jordan border.
Moscow *will* push back against some items of #Obama’s proposal tomorrow with Sec. Kerry, but core points likely to soon be attempted.
No underestimating how much this will, for many Syrians, “prove” Jabhat al-Nusra’s narrative was “right” all along.
Obama is fully supporting JaN (AQ) 500%
Nancy Youssef, نانسى @nancyayoussef
Overheard at the Pentagon: "I think when 'cessation of hostilities' is translated from English to Russian, it becomes 'bitch slap America.'"
Kyle W. Orton @KyleWOrton
"Ceasefire" is supposedly in place in #Syria right now. We just have to bribe #Russia/#Assad by helping them win; then they might comply.
If we coordinate with Moscow in Syria we are condoning and legitimizing every atrocity they've committed.
Kyle W. Orton
@KyleWOrton
US to offer Russia an 'anti-terror pact' in Syria
http://bit.ly/29ALYho via @Josiensor.
Comments from @Charles_Lister and me.
"The rebellion will feel, not unjustifiably, that this is the US taking sides against them."
Michael Weiss
✔ @michaeldweiss Seems also Obama's attempt to tie Hillary's hand. She'll have limited options once a deal with Moscow is locked in.