Assad’s Lesson From Aleppo: Force Works, With Few Consequences by Ben Hubbard, New York Times
For months, the bodies have been piling up in eastern Aleppo as the buildings have come down, pulverized by Syrian and Russian jets, burying residents who could not flee in avalanches of bricks and mortar.
And now it is almost over, not because diplomats reached a deal in Geneva, but because President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and his foreign allies have won the city. Cold, hungry and scarred by the deaths of loved ones, tens of thousands of civilians and fighters are awaiting buses to take them from their homes to uncertain futures.
It is not the first victory that Mr. Assad has secured with overwhelming force in the Syrian conflict. But his subjugation of eastern Aleppo has echoed across the Middle East and beyond, rattling alliances, proving the effectiveness of violence and highlighting the reluctance of many countries, perhaps most notably the United States, to get involved.
President Obama, on Friday at his final news conference of the year, acknowledged that the nearly six-year-old war in Syria had been among the hardest issues he has faced, and that the world was “united in horror” at the butchery in Aleppo. But Mr. Obama — who came into office committed to reducing America’s military entanglements in the Middle East — also defended his decision not to intervene more forcefully.
To do otherwise, he said, would have required the United States to be “all in and willing to take over Syria.”
The message for autocratic leaders in the region and elsewhere is that force works — and brings few consequences…
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Ben Hubbard’s political narrative at NYT relates the disappointment of failed regime change efforts towards the Syrian Arab Republic.
There are, however, a number of military lessons to be observed acquired by the pro-Syrian Arab Republic side of the conflict. They include:
1) The Iranian Tribal Basij and militia model worked with the NDF stabilizing the ground situation up to a certain point, and later became an effective ground force partner for Russian VKS air support.
2) Notably during the Aleppo campaign the Russian VKS and special forces have been effective with local regional forces serving as ground force partner, in a manner similar to the American experience during OEF-A using the Afghan National Alliance.
3) Iranian air logistical support has come in many forms. Not only were B747 and civilian airline aircraft pressed into service, but IRIAF Lockheed C-130 Hercules transports were also employed, some using the technique of air drop. Notably, Iran’s ally Iraq continues to provide its air space for this critically important logistical air bridge.
4) The Iranians rendered military precedent in permitting Russian VKS use of IRIAF TFB-3 at Hamadan.
5) Strategic weapon platforms were employed by Russian VKS as well as the Military-Maritime Fleet of the Russian Federation; also replicating in similar fashion the American experience of OEF-A.
6) Military-Maritime Fleet of the Russian Federation is now acquiring wartime experience in carrier operations with RFK Admiral Flota Sovetskogo Soyuza Kuznetsov (113).
7) In Syria, Iran’s IRGC forces were provided with and now possess combat experience with the Russian T-90 main battle tank.
8) Lebanese Hezbollah has been introduced to a range of war fighting techniques that now include offensive operations and CAS.
9) Iran now has pools of militia manpower from sources drawn from Afghanistan and Pakistan.
The list goes on…