03/11/2021 News & Commentary – National Security

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Trust in the military is declining, while its reputation remains high, according to new survey

2.  Top US, China Officials to Meet Next Week in Alaska

3. U.S. will likely bring up Uighurs, cyberattacks, Taiwan and Hong Kong in upcoming China summit

4. America’s Protests and the CCP’s Dogma of Inevitability

5. U.S. Indo-Pacific Leaders Detail Posture to House Armed Services Committee

6. Beijing has a plethora of military options against Taiwan after 2022

7. Miller becomes longest-serving commander of Afghan War as US mulls its next move

8. Getting the Quad Right Is Biden’s Most Important Job

9. The Dire Possibility of Cyberattacks on Weapons Systems

10. U.S. Poorly Integrates COCOMs, Hasn’t Figured Out Hybrid, Hyten Says

11. Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group Destroyer Conducts Taiwan Strait Transit

12. Manchin undecided on Kahl, as nomination is in limbo

13. DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Freedom of Navigation Report

14. China’s defense budget signals will to outmatch US

15. ‘Not Enough Being Done’ to Counter China’s Growing Aggression, US Military Officials Warn

16. Friday’s Quad Summit Will Show if It’s Just a Talking Shop

17. The Future of the Quad Is Bright

18. France In The Indo-Pacific: A Mediating Power?

 

1.  Trust in the military is declining, while its reputation remains high, according to new survey

Stars and Stripes  · by Sarah Cammarata · March 10, 2021

We should be concerned and we should reflect on this. The data and graphics can be viewed here. 

 

2. Top US, China Officials to Meet Next Week in Alaska

voanews.com · by Nike Ching · March 10, 2021

This should be an interesting meeting.

 

3. U.S. will likely bring up Uighurs, cyberattacks, Taiwan and Hong Kong in upcoming China summit

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

I wonder if this will be a cordial meeting or will be filled with yelling and banging of shoes on the table? (Oops, my mistake - that is a Soviet move)

 

4. America’s Protests and the CCP’s Dogma of Inevitability

hoover.org · by Miles Maochun Yu

Our domestic instability has national security implications.

Excerpts:

“The violence and protests of the 1960s and 70s thus greatly boosted the CCP’s self-confidence in its own otherwise bankrupt communist system. As a result, China became recklessly aggressive and cantankerously provocative, dramatically increasing its military involvement in the Vietnam war against the U.S., and bringing the Soviet Union and China to the brink of a nuclear war in 1969, while in the meantime ruining the lives of millions in China—all as a result of the CCP’s ideological hubris and dogmatic adherence to a Marxist-Leninist prediction of America’s inexorable demise and socialism’s ultimate triumph.

Last summer’s chaos and violence have no doubt imposed a reputational cost on the United States, boosting the CCP’s self-confidence, thus weakening America’s global deterrence against aggression and authoritarianism in general, and its strategic realignment against Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific in particular.

 

5. U.S. Indo-Pacific Leaders Detail Posture to House Armed Services Committee

defense.gov · by Jim Garamone

Video at the link. It was unfortunate that each representative only had 5 minutes for questions so the Admiral, General, and Acting Secretary for Indo-Pacific Affairs could not answer any of the questions to any great depth.

 

6. Beijing has a plethora of military options against Taiwan after 2022

The Hill · by Lyle J. Goldstein · March 10, 2021

An ominous warning:

“All signs suggest that the PLA now has the capabilities to subdue Taiwan in a matter of weeks, if not days. Western strategists have mistakenly focused on large Chinese platforms, such as the aircraft carrier or the large amphibious attack ship, as indicators of Chinese intent on Taiwan. Yet, Chinese military planners have been working on simpler, more numerous, cheaper and better dispersed methods for breaking down Taiwan’s front, back and side doors too. Very large and highly sophisticated special operations teams would constitute the first wave, delivered by parachute, helicopter and small boats. Some of these teams would create mayhem or distraction in the rear areas of Taiwan forces, while others would move to secure small and medium ports and airfields. Nearly simultaneously, ballistic and cruise missiles, supplemented now by economical long-range mobile rocket artillery systems would demolish Taiwan’s air force, air defenses, naval bases as well as key transport and command nodes.

Biden’s new national security team needs to put Taiwan first among all its priorities. But the answer to defusing this bomb is not to reflexively pile additional kindling on these hot coals with ever more U.S. military exercises and proximate basing arrangements. It is no exaggeration to say that intervention in a Taiwan scenario could result in a devastating U.S. military defeat, or even put the planet in peril if there is a widespread resort to nuclear weaponry. American diplomats must creatively engage with both Taipei and Beijing to walk the two sides back from the brink. Hope is not a strategy and American national security planners must understand that.”

 

7. Miller becomes longest-serving commander of Afghan War as US mulls its next move

Stars and Stripes · by Phillip Walter Wellman·  March 5, 2021

I think General Miller is the only service member who is living the WWII terms of service: for the duration plus six months. I fear he may never be able to come home to enjoy those final six months.

 

8. Getting the Quad Right Is Biden’s Most Important Job

Foreign Policy · by James Mattis, Michael Auslin, Joseph Felter · March 10, 2021

Conclusion: "The Quad should complement the United States’ current hub-and-spoke alliance system, as well as multilateral organizations like the East Asia Summit, ASEAN, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The grouping will gain the most support if presented as an alignment based on shared interests and values. Linking together the largest democracies in the region to promote cooperative action among all nations sharing a similar vision for a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific may offer the best chance to channel China’s increasing power and more positively influence Asia, as well as strengthen democracy and liberalism in the world’s most dynamic region."

 

9. The Dire Possibility of Cyberattacks on Weapons Systems

Wired · by Lukasz Olejnik

Excerpts:

“Much like everything else, weapons systems will only become increasingly computerized. Soon, this will perhaps include space-based systems, or nuclear weapons systems as well. In order to protect these, policymakers and the military decision-makers should consider recommendations to put in place assessment frameworks to identify and manage the cybersecurity risks facing further computerization or interconnection built into weapons systems. A recent report from the US Cyberspace Solarium Commission advises designing a special process of assessing the cybersecurity of weapons systems. Preparing such assessment processes will require allocating substantial funds purely to technical defense. Fixing existing systems might not result in headline topics, but it may bring tangible defensive results.

The exploitation of vulnerabilities in weapons systems could bring high risks to the life of the humans operating these machines, the army who controls them, or even civilians. The far-fetched consequences may even include an armed conflict. The world would be better prepared for such a risk if we could avert a cyberattack-based compromise of weapons systems. We do not know if the world’s militaries are working towards attaining the capability of hacking adversary weapons systems. But having such powers would be dangerous to the world’s stability and peace.”

 

10. U.S. Poorly Integrates COCOMs, Hasn’t Figured Out Hybrid, Hyten Says

airforcemag.com · by John A. Tirpak · March 11, 2021

Let me ask this provocative question: Do we still need COCOMs? Are they an anachronism? Particular the regional COCOMs - do we really need them?

 

11. Theodore Roosevelt Strike Group Destroyer Conducts Taiwan Strait Transit

news.usni.org · by Megan Eckstein · March 10, 2021

 

12. Manchin undecided on Kahl, as nomination is in limbo

Defense News · by Joe Gould · March 10, 2021

Is Manchin becoming the Democrat's John McCain?

 

13. DOD Releases Fiscal Year 2020 Freedom of Navigation Report

defense.gov

 

14. China’s defense budget signals will to outmatch US

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · March 8, 2021

Excerpts:

“So it sounds familiar to us when China announces that it is spending a certain amount on defense. Analysts will argue over the “true” figure and whether there are “defense-related” expenditures that don’t go into the official figure. And they’ll try to adjust for the fact that things don’t cost the same in China as in the US.

But it’s basically the same idea: The PLA gets a certain amount of money and has to live within its means. Just like the US military.

Or so one might think. But it’s in fact different with China. Here’s how:

In America, the secretary of defense goes to the Senate Armed Services Committee and asks: “How big is our budget this year?” The answer: “$700 billion.”

 

In China, the top dog in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) goes to the Central Military Commission (atop which sits President Xi Jinping) and asks: “How big is our budget this year?” The answer: “As big as you want it to be.”

In other words, the Chinese government will spend whatever amount it takes, over as many years as needed, to build a military that can defeat the US. And Beijing has been clear about its desire to vanquish the Americans for many years, even if too many experts have refused to believe them.”

 

15. ‘Not Enough Being Done’ to Counter China’s Growing Aggression, US Military Officials Warn

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Excerpts:

“China, too, has been building its multi-domain capabilities, including in cyber and in the maritime sphere. “The difference is they are trying to find their butt with both hands to be joint and interoperable on those things,” said the second official. The official said U.S. forces already conducts operations jointly, and the services are working to improve the communications interlinks between them to allow for that to happen more quickly and effectively.

“Guess who is trying to mirror and mimic what we do? The [People’s Liberation Army of China], trying to become a more joint, interoperable force. We see that in the exercising that they do. We see it in the domains of space, cyber, surface and subsurface and the things that they’re doing. They’re trying to get there. They are behind.”

The first official cautioned against taking Chinese capabilities for granted. “We’re worried about the speed of growth. We’re worried about quantity having a quality all its own. And the number of platforms, even if you operate them poorly, are still highly lethal. So when we talk about a free and open Indo-Pacific that should have the right amount of support for rotational forces and more places not bases and going expeditionary, not enough is being done.”

 

16.  Friday’s Quad Summit Will Show if It’s Just a Talking Shop

Foreign Policy · by Salvatore Babones · March 10, 2021

Excerpts:

“The Quad is never going to go to war with China. In any case, treaty alliances and military procurement partnerships are more effective tools for preventing war than a loose international grouping. What the Quad can do is provide a backbone for broad Indo-Pacific maritime security cooperation that tamps down China’s brinkmanship across the region. Systematic flight and ship tracking, fisheries management, smuggling interdiction, and the like would also help counter North Korea’s extensive illicit maritime activities. And it would keep Russia on notice as it seeks to develop a greater presence in the Indo-Pacific region.

History is littered with the remains of multilateral partnerships that failed because they had nothing to do. It would be a shame to see the second Quad go the same way as the first, but it will only survive if it has a meaningful mission—one that is distinctive to the grouping and useful to all four countries involved. For that, full-spectrum Indo-Pacific maritime security is the only mission that makes sense.”

 

17. The Future of the Quad Is Bright

realclearworld.com · by Jeff M. Smith

Excerpts:

“This evolution in New Delhi’s strategic thinking matters a great deal because India is central to the Quad. The group can only move as quickly as its most reluctant member. Japan, Australia, and the United States are already bound by the thickest of security and intelligence bonds. With India involved at a higher level of strategic coordination, this potent democratic triangle becomes a quadrilateral colossus, accounting for half of the planet’s defense spending, and a third of its population and GDP.

With India and the Biden administration now firmly on board, the Quad’s future is bright.”

 

18. France In The Indo-Pacific: A Mediating Power?

breakingdefense.com · by Murielle Delaporte

Excerpts:

“As a French Air and Space Force officer stressed, ‘’These kinds of exercises allow to improve our interoperability: with a country like India which traditionally purchases a third of its military equipment from Russia, a third from Israel and a third from NATO countries, it is interesting for Rafale and Sukoi 30 to train as wingmen…’’

The same goes in the maritime theater where the French Navy conducts operations all the time, such as the current deployment of the Frigate ‘’Prairial’’ from Tahiti to monitor the embargo against North Korea in cooperation with Japan. The ‘’Marianne mission’’ deployed for eight months and for the first time in the Western Pacific a nuclear attack submarine, SSN ‘’Emeraude’’.

The French government’s observation that, as the world becomes more tightly interconnected, a dangerous ‘’contraction of the geopolitical space’’ — for example, the Chinese goal to link the Baltic Sea to the Arctic.

A lot more than the eye can meet is therefore at stake and that is why, together with its European partners such as Germany, Paris is promoting an Indo-Pacific agenda at the European level and expects that a European strategy for the Indo-Pacific will be endorsed later this year.”

 

--------------

 

“I am still determined to be cheerful and to be happy in whatever situation. I may be, for I have also learnt from experience that the greater part of our happiness or misery depends upon our dispositions and not upon our circumstances.” 

- Martha Washington

 

“Good people do not need laws to tell them to act responsibly, while bad people will find a way around the laws.”

- Plato

 

“1. Accept everything just the way it is.

2. Do not seek pleasure for its own sake.

3. Do not, under any circumstances, depend on a partial feeling.

4. Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world.

5. Be detached from desire your whole life long.

6. Do not regret what you have done.

7. Never be jealous.

8. Never let yourself be saddened by a separation.

9. Resentment and complaint are appropriate neither for oneself nor others.

10. Do not let yourself be guided by the feeling of lust or love.

11. In all things have no preferences.

12. Be indifferent to where you live.

13. Do not pursue the taste of good food.

14. Do not hold on to possessions you no longer need.

15. Do not act following customary beliefs.

16. Do not collect weapons or practice with weapons beyond what is useful.

17. Do not fear death.

18. Do not seek to possess either goods or fiefs for your old age.

19. Respect Buddha and the gods without counting on their help.

20. You may abandon your own body but you must preserve your honour.

21. Never stray from the Way.”

- Miyamoto Musashi