Blog Posts

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links. Includes the latest on Operation Odyssey Dawn.

Small Wars, Disorder, Likely DoD Bills by Nathan Freier at DoD Buzz. BLUF: "Libya, Bahrain, Egypt, North Korea, Haqqani Network, al Qaeda, Rwanda, Bosnia: the list of unpredictable and largely unforeseen threats goes on and on. Should the US build a military largely predicated on these threats, as Defense Secretary Robert Gates has argued. Or will we return to the primary model of the last 60 years or so, where we built a military focused on defeating one dominant threat anywhere on the globe. Nathan Freier of the Center for Strategic and International Security examines the choices and says the Pentagon better be ready to respond to small wars and other disorders."

No, our best officers are not running off: 4 officers respond to that Atlantic article at Tom Rick's Best Defense. Colonel James Miller, US Army; Captain Anthony Calandra, US Navy; Lieutenant Colonel Gabriel Vann Green, US Air Force; and Lieutenant Colonel R. G. Bracknell, US Marine Corps respond to "Why Our Best Officers Are Leaving" by Tim Kane in the January / February edition of The Atlantic. BLUF: "Departure of some officers is expected and required, and has been going on for as long as there have been armies. The key question left unanswered by Kane's article is whether or not the current departure of officers is tolerable."

Book Review: The Bonus

by Georgia Lowe

Lucky Dime Press, 2010, 398p.

Trade paperback, ISBN# 978-0-615-37145-0 $18.95

Reviewed by Mike Few

Georgia Lowe's debut novel, The Bonus, vividly captures a United States President entrenched in rising unemployment rates, pending economic collapse, and unrest abroad that hauntingly echoes today's worst case scenarios. In the middle of this turmoil, Georgia takes the reader on a journey that follows the plight of the Bonus Expeditionary Force, some 17,000 disfranchised World War One veterans and families marching on Washington DC in the summer of 1932 demanding immediate payment promised by the World War Adjusted Compensation Act of 1924. After local police failed to turn away the protesters, President Herbert Hoover dispatched an Army unit commanded by GEN Douglas MacArthur and including MAJ George S. Patton and MAJ Dwight D. Eisenhower to quell the protesters using fixed bayonets and tanks. The resulting violence would tear at the nation's already stressed social fabric and remained a dark footnote in the nation's history.

Georgia's interest in writing this work stemmed from the collective stories of her parents, Bonus Marchers who lived through the Great War and the Great Depression, and she focuses her story on the personal level of those involved. Her main characters, a newspaper reporter, a movie star, and a police chief, are neither protagonists nor antagonists. Rather, they are combat veterans attempting to assimilate back into society after surviving through the face of battle. In their personal flaws and shortcomings, the reader understands the characters humanity, a trait that the veterans might have felt long lost. In modern clinical terms, the characters might be diagnosed with varying degrees of traumatic brain injury (TBI) or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).

In following the journey of the Bonus Marchers, The Bonus provides the reader with a greater understanding of an often passed over event. Ultimately, Georgia's novel does a great service to her parents, and in a time of protracted war, it begs the reader to question the cost of war and what is owed to those that served. This book should be in the kit-bag of every combat leader as they wrestle with the nature of war and warfare.

SWJ friend Major Steven Brothers, who authored Considerations on Libya for SWJ, wrote a book review on Louis Martinez's The Libyan Paradox over at ASMEA (Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa).

BLUF. Conventional wisdom argues that the effects of the sanctions—which included skyrocketing inflation, political unrest and an Islamic insurgency—forced the Gaddafi regime to "convert" from a "rogue terrorist state" to a partner in the "War on Terror." Martinez addresses this in his introduction and states that his purpose is to show the reader how the "evolution" of the regime (notice he does not use the word "reformation") occurred as a result of the sanctions and a necessity to face resulting, unforeseen threats. He also wants to show the reader how—though it may appear that real reforms have taken place—the Libyan regime may not have changed much at all.

For those trying to gain a better understanding of Libya, Steven's review and Louis's book is a good start.

Beating Back the Taliban by Dr. Seth Jones, Foreign Policy / RAND. BLUF: "Despite all the political hand-wringing in Washington over the war in Afghanistan, it's the Taliban who are now on the defensive on the military battlefield. Indeed, there is a growing recognition among senior Taliban leaders that they are losing momentum in parts of southern Afghanistan, their longtime stronghold. This is more than the normal winter lull of senior Taliban fighters migrating to Pakistan: The Taliban have definitively lost territorial control in parts of Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, and other southern provinces."

Building Critical Thinkers by General Martin Dempsey, Armed Forces Journal. BLUF: "The challenges ahead of us in the 21st century security environment mandate that we reinvigorate our commitment to the development of strategic leaders. We owe it to the Army and to the nation to 'build a bench' of leaders for tomorrow who can operate at the highest levels of our government."

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links. Includes the latest on Operation Odyssey Dawn.

I thought I'd share a summary from today's National Military Academy of Afghanistan Graduation Ceremony for Class 1389 (solar year) where President Hamid Karzai publicly announced the way forward for transition and the Afghan Army welcomed its 299 newest officers before an audience of over 100 dignitaries, 100 coalition partners and 2000 members of the Afghan National Army and Police, plus hundreds of members of the Afghan and international media.

President Karzai, as the graduation keynote speaker, used the venue to announce his transition plan. The governors of the first provinces that will undergo transition were present to hear President Karzai's remarks as well as to congratulate the newly commissioned lieutenants...was especially encouraging to see the top 15 Cadets from the NMAA graduating class receive their diplomas and personal congratulations from President Karzai.

Here are some of the key points from President Karzai's address:

Reinforcing the critical nature of preventing civilian casualties, President Karzai stated: "The Afghan people may support the international community's presence in Afghanistan, but safeguarding the Afghans' lives, ending civilian casualties, fundamentally strengthening the government and the dissolution of parallel structures and activities are the basic conditions for the continuation of relations between us, America and NATO."

President Karzai also said America and NATO are responsible for fully training and equipping the Afghan forces by the end of 2014. "I know that we are still away from the target, and I also believe that the international community will continue to cooperate and assist the Afghans in other forms. However, changes will certainly be brought to this cooperation and assistance. In addition to accomplishing the transition process, the US and NATO responsibility will be limited to training and equipping the Afghan forces and providing financial assistance."

President Karzai also announced the names of provinces and cities where security will be handed over to the Afghan security forces from NATO troops in mid June this year. He said: "Afghanistan will take over complete responsibility for security in the following areas from Saratan [22 June] of the current year. The responsibility for security of Kabul except for its Surobi district, Panjsher Province, Bamiyan Province, Herat city except for its districts, Lashkar Gah city, the capital of Helmand Province, Mazar-e Sharif, the capital of Balkh Province and Mehtarlam, the capital of Laghman Province. This transition process will expand from the center of provinces to the districts."

He followed by saying: "Transition means defending the country, ensuring security and implementing development projects. It also means the Afghans will carry out all affairs such as ensuring security, implementing reconstruction projects and taking over responsibility for providing governance in all zones and meeting the patriotic Afghans' wish and demands."

I have linked a summary of his as delivered remarks along with a storyboard from the event and several high quality photos from the graduation activities. In addition, you can see more photos, watch the video and read more about the event at www.NTM-A.com.

It was incredibly inspiring to see President Karzai not only formally announce the transition plan, but also to see him charge the graduates representing some of Afghanistan's brightest and boldest young men with the responsibility of providing security for the nation and bringing peace to the people of Afghanistan.

Best,

Dr. Jack Kem

Our favorite Pittsburgh Tribune Review reporter and SWJ friend Carl Prine is now blogging at Military.com. See Carl Prine's Line of Departure.

Special Report: Operation Odyssey Dawn - Department of Defence web page covering Joint Task Force Operation Odyssey Dawn operations in Libya.

Recently published Carlisle (Student) Papers, LeTort Papers, and Colloquium Briefs published by the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute:

An Evaluation of Counterinsurgency as a Strategy for Fighting the Long War by Lieutenant Colonel Baucum Fulk. Counterterrorism, support to insurgency, and antiterrorism are each both efficient and sustainable from a military and economic perspective, and each have inherent political concerns, hazards, or constraints. The author maintains that an overall strategy combining counterterrorism and antiterrorism is the best means of employing military forces to counter violent extremism.

2010 SSI Annual Strategy Conference Report "Defining War for the 21st Century" by Dr. Steven Metz and LTC Phillip R. Cuccia. The Strategic Studies Institute's XXI Annual Strategy Conference, held at Carlisle Barracks from April 6-8, 2010, addressed the topic of the meaning of war. While it did not seek to produce a definitive answer to questions about the nature and definition of war, it did highlight the crucial questions and their implications, including issues such as whether the cause of war is shifting, whether all forms of organized, politically focused violence constitute war, and the distinction between passive and active war.

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill. Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the current population in poverty. The government obtains around a third of its budget revenue from sales of its limited and declining oil stocks, which most economists state will be exhausted by 2017. Yemen also has critical water shortages and a variety of interrelated security problems. In Sa'ada province in Yemen's northern mountainous region, there has been an intermittent rebellion by Houthi tribesmen (now experiencing a cease-fire) who accuse the government of discrimination and other actions against their Zaydi Shi'ite religious sect. In southern Yemen, a powerful independence movement has developed which is mostly nonviolent but is increasingly angry and confrontational. More recently, Yemen has emerged as one of the most important theaters for the struggle against al-Qaeda. Yemen is among the worst places on earth to cede to al-Qaeda in this struggle, but it is also an especially distrustful and wary nation in its relationship with Western nations and particularly the United States. All of these problems are difficult to address because the central government has only limited capacity to extend its influence into tribal areas beyond the capital and major cities. The United States must therefore do what it can to support peaceful resolutions of Yemen's problems with the Houthis and Southern Movement while continuing to assist the government's struggle against al-Qaeda forces in Yemen. It must further pursue these policies in ways that avoid provoking a backlash among the Yemeni population which will not tolerate significant numbers of U.S. combat troops in Yemen.

Civilian Skills for African Military Officers to Resolve the Infrastructure, Economic Development, and Stability Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa by Diane E. Chido. For decades, a lack of economic opportunity has caused instability and violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fortunately, U.S. Africa Command (USAFRICOM) is in a unique position to increase stability and reduce the causes of violence and extremism through new partnerships and military-to-military training. The current training approach is very likely to be beneficial to African military officers currently on active duty; however, proficiency in military science alone will not provide the necessary skills for those separating from service and facing an uncertain future in societies that do not pay pensions on time, if at all, and do not offer economic opportunities, especially to those without the right expertise. USAFRICOM partnerships are an excellent foundation on which to provide engineering and other technical training for African military officers and NCOs. In this way, African nations can create indigenous capacity to construct and maintain needed infrastructure like power stations, dams, bridges, and roads. A robust engineering training program has the great potential to lead to improved civil-military relationships and to reduce instability through increased opportunities for separating service members. These new technical skills will enable separating service members, now in mufti, to positively contribute to the societies they once served while in uniform.

India in Africa: Implications of an Emerging Power for AFRICOM and U.S. Strategy by Dr. J. Peter Pham. This monograph examines India's rapidly expanding network of influence in Africa. The author analyzes the country's burgeoning public and private investments in the region as well as its policies vis-í -vis African regional organizations and individual states, especially in the security sector. After reviewing the historic role that India has played in Africa, the author looks at the principal motivations for India's approach to Africa—including the former's quests for the resources, business opportunities, diplomatic influence, and security—and Africans' responses to it. In the context of the broader U.S.-India strategic partnership, as well as American political and security interests in Africa, India's willingness to make significant contributions to African peacekeeping and to extend its maritime security cover to the continent's eastern littoral ought to be welcomed, not least because of the potential positive impact on regional stability and development. Consequently, the author believes the opportunity thus presented in Africa for greater engagement between the United States and India ought to be seized upon.

A Continuation of Politics by Other Means: The "Politics" of a Peacekeeping Mission in Cambodia (1992-1993) by Boraden Nehm. The author departs from conventional wisdom that addresses factors such as mandates, spoilers, and the like, and ignores political factors. He explores Cambodian conflict and peace operations as a complex and interactive situation in which local political conditions were paramount and directly challenged UN peacekeeping principles of neutrality. He observes that UN peacekeeping missions can be too tied to theory and doctrine while ignoring reality. The author argues for missions that understand the inherent complexity of peacekeeping, recognize emerging realities, and adapt accordingly.

Russian Military Politics and Russia's 2010 Defense Doctrine. Edited by Dr. Stephen J. Blank. These three papers represent the third monograph to come out of the SSI-U.S. State Department conference "Contemporary issues in International Security," that took place at the Finnish Embassy in Washington, DC, on January 25-26, 2010. This monograph consists of three deeply probing essays into the genesis of Russia's 2010 defense doctrine, the political struggle behind it, and the actual content of the doctrine. They reveal a highly politicized minefield of struggle comprising leading actors in the military, the government, and in Russian security policy as a whole. They duly illuminate the ongoing struggles between and among these sets of military and civilian elites and therefore cast a shining light on critical aspects of Russian policy that all too often are left in darkness. They are essential to any understanding of Russian defense and security policy as well as the nature of the relationship between the Russian military and the government and the way in which these actors formulate key policy statements and resolve pressing political issues.

Civil-Military Relations in Medvedev's Russia by Dr. Stephen J. Blank. These three chapters originated in an SSI conference in January 2010 and go to the heart of a question of vital significance for both Asia and Russia, namely, what are Russia's prospects in Asia? The three papers outline the challenges Russia faces in Asia, the nature of the dynamic and complex Asian security environment, and the extent to which Russia is or is not meeting those challenges. These chapters represent both Russian and U.S. views on the subject and clearly do not agree in their conclusions or analyses. For this reason, they are all the more interesting because they should provoke debate, reflection, and greater awareness by all our readers as to the complexities of the current international scene in Asia and of Russia's success, or lack thereof, in participating in that environment. In view of the extraordinary dynamism that now characterizes Asia and the fact that it is the center of the world economy, the analysis we provide here goes beyond obvious issues to address questions that we believe are unjustly neglected, e.g., Russia's prospects as an Asian power and as an independent great power player in Asia. The answers to these questions are urgent for Russians, but very consequential for the United States because getting Asia right will be among the most critical challenges to U.S. policymakers in the coming years.

Brazil's Security Strategy and Defense Doctrine by Dr. Max G. Manwaring and Andrew Fishman. Brazil is a developing nation well situated in time and place. Unlike other areas of the world, it has no bloody religious or ethnic conflicts, and its last border conflict took place in the early 19th century. However, Brazil is the most populous Latin American nation, with nearly 200 million inhabitants, and thousands of miles of land and sea borders. These borders, together with large natural gas and oil reserves and the "Green" Amazon (land and river areas within the Amazon Basin) and "Blue" Amazon (coastal areas of Brazil where major hydro-carbon and other resources are located), are strategic strengths, as well as concerns for the Armed Forces and the nation. Brazil's new national defense strategy consists of three principal elements that it hopes to develop. They are: 1) advanced technologies; 2) a space program; and 3) a peaceful nuclear capacity.

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links. Includes the latest on Operation Odyssey Dawn.

Training for Counterinsurgency Center by Dr. Rich Kiper, Booz-Allen-Hamilton analyst, US Army COIN Center

In a previous post, the COIN Center explained the nine COIN training tasks and fifty-two subtasks approved by Secretary of Defense Gates. The latest COIN Center blog on the subject explains how the Army is developing a strategy to ensure that all deploying units receive instruction and training on the approved standards. Gates has stated clearly the importance of mastering those standards: "Units and individuals (both military and civilian) preparing to serve in Afghanistan must understand COIN and routinely assess the effectiveness of these standards in actual operational conditions."

Continue reading "Training for Counterinsurgency".

Libya's Coming Insurgency by Dr. Steven Metz, The New Republic. BLUF: "... whatever happens in the coming weeks or months, one thing is clear: The chances of a drawn-out insurgency in Libya are very high."

The international coalition's air campaign is about 48 hours old and in strictly military terms the results thus far are probably exceeding expectations. Western aircraft are flying over Libya and Libyan aircraft are not. Quick air supremacy was widely expected. More notable are the dozens of pro-Qaddafi armored vehicles now burning along the road between Ajdabiya and Benghazi, destroyed by coalition attack aircraft. The successful attack on Qaddafi's armored column on the road to Benghazi has provided the relief Western policymakers were scrambling for last week.

But this very likely ends the conventional military phase of the campaign. Qaddafi will now attempt to deprive Western airpower of any additional targets by shifting to irregular warfare tactics. He will also attempt to implement a political and media strategy with a goal of cracking support for the intervention. The coalition must reckon with the possibility that its leverage may soon peak. If it does not achieve a quick knock-out of Qaddafi, it will need to fashion a sustainable political and military strategy for a long campaign.

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Blue Birds and Wolverines in Libya: Cinematic Considerations for Military Intervention

by Patrick McKinney

On March 17, 2011, the United Nations authorized military force to protect the people of Libya from the forces of its ruler, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Two days later, the United States, France, and England, commenced military action against Libyan air defenses, and command and control sites in preparation for a no-fly zone. As the international community starts action in Libya, words of caution are in order. Seen by some as a lower-cost alternative to ground forces, a no-fly zone intends to protect Libyan civilians and opposition forces from the Qaddafi regime, but such a mission is not without risks. As political and military leaders prepare for action, they should pause for a few hours and watch two films of the 1980s; 1986's Iron Eagle and 1984's Red Dawn, and consider the lessons of the Blue Bird and the Wolverines.

Patrick McKinney served as a United States Army field artillery and military intelligence officer, and deployed as a platoon leader in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom IV. He has watched both films since childhood, and they accompanied him on his deployment. He now resides in Alexandria, VA. The views expressed in this piece are his own.

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links. Includes the latest on Operation Odyssey Dawn.

Via Armed Forces Press Service: Navy Vice Adm. Wlliam E. Gortney, director of the Joint Staff, briefed reporters at the Pentagon on the launch of "Operation Odyssey Dawn."

"The goals of these initial operations are essentially twofold: first, to prevent further attacks by regime forces on Libyan citizens and opposition groups, especially around Benghazi, and second, to degrade the regime's capability to resist the no-fly zone we are implementing under that United Nations resolution," Gortney said shortly after the attacks were launched.

Most of the targets were on or near the coast and around the Libyan capital of Tripoli, Gortney said. The coalition carefully picked the targets, he added, which either threatened coalition pilots or through use by the regime, posed a direct threat to the people of Libya.

For now, Gortney told reporters, Operation Odyssey Dawn is under the command of Army Gen. Carter F. Ham, commander of U.S. Africa Command. Navy Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III is the commander of Joint Task Force Odyssey Dawn aboard the command ship USS Mount Whitney. Locklear commands U.S. Naval Forces in Europe and Africa, as well as NATO Allied Joint Forces Command.

Navy Vice Adm. William E. Gortney, director of the Joint Staff, briefs reporters at the Pentagon on the launch of Operation Odyssey Dawn.

Operation Odyssey Dawn - VADM Gortney's briefing slides

Coalition Order of Battle - Associated Press

Remarks by the President on Libya - White House transcript

Coalition Launches 'Operation Odyssey Dawn' - Armed Forces Press Service

Operation Takes Aim at Libyan Air Defenses - Armed Forces Press Service

West Pounds Libya with Missiles; Gadhafi Vows Retaliation - Voice of America

France Fires First Shots Against Libya - Washington Post

France Takes Reins on Libya, Sarkozy Triumphs - Los Angeles Times

French Plane Fires First Shot in Libya Intervention - Reuters

U.S. Missiles Strike Libyan Air Defense Targets - New York Times

Allied Forces Attack Libya - Wall Street Journal

Coalition Airstrikes Batter Libyan Targets - Toronto Star

U.S., Allies, Launch Air Attacks - Globe and Mail

U.S., Allies Strike Libyan Air Defenses - Los Angeles Times

'Odyssey Dawn' Starts: U.S. Fires Cruise Missiles - Washington Times

U.S. Leads 'Odyssey Dawn' Initial Attack - Christian Science Monitor

Military Strikes: 20 Targets, Claims of 48 Dead - Sydney Morning Herald

West Launches Air Strikes on Libya - The Australian

U.S., U.K. Tomahawks 'First Phase' to Open Airspace - Bloomberg

U.S. Pounds Libyan Air Defenses, Assesses Damage - Associated Press

Coalition Begins Attacks on Air Defense Systems - Stars and Stripes

Coalition Launches Libya Attacks - BBC News

International Forces Bombard Targets in Libya - Al Jazeera

U.S. Fires More than 100 Missiles in Attacks - New York Post

Allies Launch Libya Force as Gadhafi Hits Rebels - Associated Press

West Pounds Libya, Kadhafi Vows Retaliation - Agence France-Presse

Libya: British Forces Attack Gaddafi - Daily Telegraph

Cameron: British Forces in Action Over Libya - Reuters

MoD: U.K. Forces Hit 'Tripoli Air Defence' - Sky News

U.S. Says Five-Nation Coalition Launched Libya Strikes - Reuters

U.S. Says Missile Strikes on Libya Only 'First Phase' - Reuters

Europe Pressure, Arab Support Helped Turn U.S. - Wall Street Journal

As War Widens, Obama Stays in Background - Los Angeles Times

Obama, Clinton Stress U.S. Supporting Role in Libya - Reuters

U.S. Actions May Speak Louder than Words - Washington Post

Mullen: No-fly Zone Effectively in Place in Libya - CNN News

Why is U.S. Backing Force in Libya, Not Bahrain, Yemen? - BBC News

Military Buildup for Libya Mounts at Italian Bases - Associated Press

Gadhafi: U.N. Resolution on Libya 'Invalid' - Voice of America

Qaddafi Defiant in the Face of Allied Strikes - Christian Science Monitor

Gadhafi Promises 'Long War' after Allies Strike Libya - USA Today

Gaddafi Says Libyans will Defeat Western Forces - Reuters

Sarkozy Announces Action Against Kadafi - Los Angeles Times

Benghazi Hit by Artillery, Rocket Fire - Washington Post

In a Field of Flowers, the Wreckage of War - New York Times

Allied Planes Fly Over Libya as Gaddafi Hits Benghazi - Reuters

Gadhafi's Forces Attack Rebels in Benghazi - Washington Times

Benghazi Fights for its Life as Gaddafi Attacks - Daily Telegraph

Rebels Say Repulse Gaddafi Attack on Benghazi - Reuters

Qaddafi Pledges 'Long War' - New York Times

At Qaddafi Compound, a Human Shield - New York Times

Moammar Kadafi's Thinning Human Shield - Los Angeles Times

Mullen Says Gadhafi Could Cling to Power - Associated Press

ICRC Calls on All Sides in Libya to Spare Civilians - Reuters

Gates Delays Russia Trip to Monitor Libyan Crisis - Associated Press

Clinton: Fears of Libyan 'Unspeakable Atrocities' - Associated Press

Libya U.N. Resolution 1973: Text Analysed - BBC News

Libya Assault: U.N.'s Calculated Gamble - BBC News

Map: Tracking Events in Libya - Washington Post

Map: How the Rebellion Is Unfolding in Libya - New York Times

Libya Uprising in Maps - BBC News

A Primer on No-Fly Zones - Detroit Free Press

The Libya Tightrope - Los Angeles Times editorial

No-Fly Zone in Libya. Will it Work? - The Economist editorial

What is the Strategic Objective? - Investor's Business Daily editorial

Qaddafi Must Go - Weekly Standard opinion

Obama's Shift Toward Military Action in Libya - Washington Post opinion

Behind Obama's Turnaround on Libya - Foreign Policy opinion

What's Our Plan in Libya? - New York Post opinion

Confronting Gadhafi Is Not Enough - Wall Street Journal opinion

War with Libya? What the U.N. Resolution Means - Time opinion

The Best Military Option for Libya - The Daily Beast opinion

On Libya, Suspicious Minds - New York Times opinion

Return of the Global Policeman - Globe and Mail opinion

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

United States and British warships launched at least 110 land-attack cruise missiles against 20 Libyan air defense targets. Admiral Samuel Locklear, USN, aboard USS Mt. Whitney, is in command of the combined joint task force.

The BBC also reports that Western aircraft bombed targets in Tripoli. This follows an attack on Libyan armored vehicles near Benghazi by a French aircraft. According to NBC News, there are no U.S. aircraft over Libya.

Nothing follows.

Some Advice for the Libyan Insurgents by Lieutenant Colonel John Malevich, Canadian Army, at the US Army Counterinsurgency Center Blog. BLUF: "The good news is you have implanted the idea of freedom and government of the people, for the people by the people. Kadhafi's mercenaries might be able to defeat you, but not your ideas."

New Ways of War? Insurgencies, 'Small Wars', and the Past and Future of Conflict

1-2 June 2011

Clinton Institute for American Studies, University College Dublin

This conference will examine both the ways in which the nature of contemporary armed conflict is changing and the historical roots of that change. The recent American experience with insurgency in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to a new debate on the nature of contemporary conflict. Newly popular concepts such as 'irregular warfare', 'asymmetric conflict', 'hybrid war', 'fourth generation warfare' and even 'War 2.0' all describe a form of conflict that involves far more actors -- including insurgents, criminal gangs, peacekeepers, civilians, NGOs, international organizations, foreign governments and media outlets -- than does warfare as traditionally conceived. However, these issues, new as they seem, have a past. The historical American experience of 'small wars' provides the backdrop for current debates on counterinsurgency. We invite panels and papers that explore any aspect of the contested history of insurgency and counterinsurgency, broadly defined.

This conference considers the historical and contemporary experience of insurgency and counterinsurgency and is particularly, but not exclusively, concerned with the ways in which past experiences with insurgency and counterinsurgency are refracted through current concerns. Possible topics could include but are not limited to:

•Lesson-learning and the uses of history: How do policy-makers and institutions use the experiences of the past to inform their decision-making and doctrine?

• Modernization ideology and development as counterinsurgency: how have ideologies of modernization influenced counterinsurgency doctrine and practice?

• Representations: how have the experiences of 'small wars' been represented in literature, music and film?

• The New Media Landscape: how have media organizations negotiated the terrain of 'new wars', where traditional landmarks and narratives are absent?

• Criminality and Organized Violence in Contemporary Conflict: how has the nature of organized violence changed? Does the rise of non-state actors point to a shift in how we perceive and discuss 'war'?

• Intentions and consequences: Does the nature of 'small wars' help explain the increasing disconnection between a government's stated objectives at the beginning of a conflict and the actual outcomes.

Plenary speakers include Professor Hew Strachan, Oxford University, and Professor Mark Grimsley, The Ohio State University.

UCD invites single paper and panel proposals for this conference. Please send an email to [email protected] with the following information:

1. Name, contact details and academic affiliation

2. Paper title

3. 200-300 word abstract

4. Brief CV or biographical statement

Deadline for submission of abstracts: 11 April 2011

Continue on for today's SWJ news and opinion links.

International airpower will be enough to escalate the civil war in Libya, but not to win it.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) The UN Security Council votes for a quagmire

2) China's missiles sink the Navy's long-range plans

The UN Security Council votes for a quagmire

After a very short discussion, the U.N. Security Council, led by Britain and France, passed a resolution on March 17 that authorizes the use of military force against Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime and forces. The resolution permits the use of "any means necessary" but prohibits a foreign military occupation of Libya. It specifically calls for a no-fly zone and the use of force to protect civilians. The rapid advance of pro-Qaddafi forces toward Benghazi forced the United States to quickly harden its position. Equally surprising were abstentions by China and Russia, allowing the resolution to pass.

Today, Libya responded by declaring a unilateral cease-fire. Qaddafi and his advisors may have been equally surprised by the speed with which the Security Council acted. The declaration of the cease-fire is an interesting gambit by Qaddafi. It will force the international coalition opposing him to suspend the start of an air campaign against Libya. Meanwhile, government forces will still be able to maneuver against rebel positions and move forward equipment and supplies for renewed attacks. And it will give his troops time to switch to an irregular warfare strategy, which I discuss more below.

Obama administration officials may have thought they would have many more days, or possibly weeks, to organize a multilateral response to the Libyan situation. It seems clear they badly misjudged the timetable pro-Qaddafi forces have been able to maintain. Third-world armies have a notoriously poor reputation at military logistics operations, such as frontline supply and vehicle maintenance. But Qaddafi's forces have been able to sustain a remarkably long supply line that now stretches many hundreds of kilometers from their bases near Tripoli. Qaddafi's ability to keep his mechanized spearhead moving forward up to 100 kilometers on some days may have been as surprising to officials in Washington as it was to rebel commanders in Benghazi. Qaddafi's forces were already bombarding Benghazi, and his ground forces should reach the rebel redoubt today or tomorrow.

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